3 Aviation Demand Forecast

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1 3 Aviation Demand 17

2 s of aviation demand were prepared in support of the Master Plan for Harrisburg International Airport (the Airport or HIA), including forecasts of enplaned passengers, air cargo, based aircraft, and aircraft operations. These forecasts are unconstrained and, therefore, do not include specific assumptions about physical, regulatory, environmental or other impediments to aviation activity growth. Using calendar year 212 as the base year, annual forecasts were prepared for four future demand years 217, 222, 227, and 232. Methodology A multi-tiered approach to evaluate passenger demand in South Central Pennsylvania Select analytical tools Catchment area analysis Trend analysis Regression analysis Industry analysis Identify key drivers of HIA passenger and cargo demand Regional population and economic factors (employment and income) Cost of travel (airfares, yield, low cost carrier service) Evaluate HIA unconstrained demand O&D passengers Airline service Air freight and mail Translate annual demand forecasts into aircraft operations Passenger load factor Average seats per operation Cargo tons per operation Aircraft fleet mix Exhibit 3-2 The Aviation ing Process A multi-tiered approach to evaluate passenger demand in South Central Pennsylvania was used to create the aviation demand forecasts. This approach is summarized in Exhibit 3-2. Four key elements were particularly considered in the preparation of the enplaned passenger forecasts for the Airport: Domestic originating passengers based on statistical analysis Evaluation of competing airport service and external events Airline industry conditions Independent forecasts of key drivers $ Airfares at nearby airports affect the size of the Airport s catchment area and passenger traffic. Average airfares at HIA have historically been higher than AVERAGE ONE-WAY DOMESTIC AIRFARES IAD HIA PHL BWI Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic, Domestic, online database, accessed September % at nearby airports. As seen in Exhibit 3-3 (right graphic), when the difference in airfares between the Airport and Baltimore- Washington International Airport (BWI) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONAL AIRFARES AND HIA PASSENGERS Percent difference between HIA and BWI domestic one-way airfares HIA Domestic originating passengers Millions Exhibit 3-3 Airfares at Nearby Airports Affect the Size of the HIA Catchment Area and Passenger Traffic 18 M A S T E R P L A N Harrisburg International Airport

3 Healthcare, Medical Research, and Education Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Biotechnology and Life Sciences Logistics Information Technology Business and Financial Services Food Processing and Agribusiness independent of competing airports. The strength of each route and origindestination is evaluated. Exhibit 3-5 shows all markets to/from the Airport that account for 1% or more of the Airport s passengers. Continued high load factors and the ability of the airlines serving HIA to add seat capacity is necessary to support continued growth in passenger traffic and airline service. Exhibit 3-4 HIA Catchment Area s Diverse Economy Characteristics Source: Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development, Seattle Minneapolis-St. Paul Boston increases, passenger levels at the Airport decrease. Nevertheless, the Airport s role as a primary commercial service airport serving Pennsylvania s state capital and business center is important to future airline traffic growth and will support the Airport s share of Catchment Area passengers. The greater Harrisburg area has a diverse economy, including the markets shown in Exhibit 3-4. The population and economy in the Airport s catchment area are growing faster than the Commonwealth average, which will support continued growth in passenger traffic at HIA. Additionally, the strength of the Airport s market is evaluated, San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego LEGEND Las Vegas Phoenix Denver Origin-destination passengers. The width of the lines is proportional to the share of domestic origin-destination passengers to each market. Markets with scheduled nonstop airline service Markets without scheduled nonstop airline service Kansas City Dallas/Fort Worth Houston Milwaukee Chicago St. Louis Indianapolis Detroit Cleveland Cincinnati Atlanta Orlando Tampa Ft. Myers Charlotte New York Philadelphia Washington, D.C. Fort Lauderdale Note: Markets shown accounted for 1% or more of total inbound and outbound passengers on scheduled airlines at Harrisburg International Airport in a 1% sample for calendar year 212, except for Boston, Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation, Origin-Destination Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic; Domestic, Databank 1A, online database, accessed September 213. OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd., OAG Analyser database, accessed September 213. Exhibit 3-5 HIA Is an Orgin-Destination Airport Chapter 3: Aviation Demand 19

4 Airport Service Region As shown in Exhibit 3-6 and the map on page 7, the geographical area served by the Airport ( Airport primary area ) consists of Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York counties in Pennsylvania. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, the population of the Airport primary area was 1.9 million in 212, accounting for about 15% of Pennsylvania s total population of 12.8 million. Because economic growth and activity within this area stimulate a significant portion of passenger demand at the Airport, statistics for the Airport primary area were used to evaluate certain long-term and future airline traffic trends at the Airport. Enplaned Passengers The passenger forecasts for HIA were developed using a variety of analytical tools, including trend analysis, regression models, and market share analysis, to address the key components of aviation activity (i.e., mainline airlines, low cost carriers, and regional airlines). In addition, recent trends in airline service in South Central Pennsylvania, particularly for mainline, low cost carrier, and regional service, were considered in the preparation of the passenger forecasts. As shown on Exhibit 3-7, enplaned passengers at the Airport are forecast to increase to 861,4 in 232, an average increase of 1.4% per year between 212 and 232. Enplaned passengers (millions) Air Cargo Table 1 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN THE AIRPORT PRIMARY AREA IN 212 Metropolitan Statistical Area in Pennsylvania County Population The air cargo forecasts were developed based on a review of recent trends and an evaluation of key components of air cargo activity (i.e., enplaned and deplaned cargo Percent of total Harrisburg-Carlisle Dauphin 269, % Cumberland 238, P erry 45,71 553, % Lancaster Lancaster 526, % York-Hanover York 437, Chambersburg-Waynesboro Franklin 151, Lebanon Lebanon 135, Gettysburg Adams 11, Airport primary area 1,96,657 1.% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, accessed September 213. Exhibit 3-6 Population in Airport Primary Area by County Figure 1 HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ENPLANED PASSENGERS CAGR =.3% CAGR = 1.4% Mainline airlines Low cost airlines Regional airlines Exhibit 3-7 and Enplaned Passengers for all-cargo and passenger airlines). Total air cargo (enplaned and deplaned) is forecast to increase to 69, tons in 232, an average increase of 1.5% per year between 212 and 232, as shown on Exhibit M A S T E R P L A N Harrisburg International Airport

5 Aircraft Operations Total aircraft operations include air carrier, air taxi and commuter, general aviation, and military takeoffs and landings. The forecasts of total aircraft operations at HIA were derived from the forecasts of passenger and cargo activity for the Airport using assumptions about the average aircraft size in terms of seats per departure and enplaned passenger load factors (percentage of seats occupied, on average) for future years. In addition, the future aircraft fleet plans of the airlines serving HIA were also considered based on available information. As shown on Exhibit 3-9, total aircraft operations at the Airport are forecast to increase to 58,5 in 232, an average increase of.2% per year between 212 and 232. Air Cargo (thousands of tons) Aircraft operations (thousands) Figure 2 HISTORICAL AND FORECAST AIR CARGO CAGR = 1.5% CAGR = 1.5% Exhibit 3-8 and Air Cargo by Tonnage HISTORICAL AND FORECAST TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS CAGR = -3.7% CAGR =.2% Air carrier Air taxi General aviation Military Exhibit 3-9 and Aircraft Operations Chapter 3: Aviation Demand 21

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