Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities

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1 Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities A monthly report on employment trends in the nation s largest cities Prepared by: The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development September 2008 For further information contact: Professor Marc V. Levine Telephone:

2 About This Report Each month, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, drawing on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, monitors employment trends in Milwaukee and the nation s 50 largest cities. In addition, the Center also compares employment trends in Milwaukee to a smaller and more directly comparable group of peer cities, the 20 largest cities of the Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt region. Each month, the data compiled by the Center display year-over-year total employment for three different time periods: a) the most recent year ( ); b) the past four years ( ), since the current mayoral administration took office (the last political cycle); and c) since 2000, the peak of the last business cycle. By looking at three different time periods, and two different samples of cities, we hope to provide a fuller sense of how Milwaukee s employment growth stacks up against other big cities over time, and how Milwaukee s position has changed over time.

3 The Monthly Employment Watch: July The city of Milwaukee remains stuck in a sluggish, recessionary labor market, according to preliminary city employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for July For the twelfth consecutive month, the city lost employment compared to the same month a year earlier. Employment in Milwaukee fell by 2,764 residents in July 2008 compared to July 2007, an annual decline of This marks the fourth biggest monthly year-over-year decline since the latest cycle of employment contraction in Milwaukee began in August As Table 1 shows, employment decline appeared to be slowing in the city in the early months of 2008; however, the employment losses since May 2008 suggest that recession in the city s labor market has yet to bottom out. The July data are, of course, preliminary and losses could be revised downward in subsequent BLS reports. But, at this stage, the trend line is not encouraging. Table 1: Monthly Year-over-Year Employment in the City of Milwaukee* Month Employment July ( ) August September October -2, November -2, December -3, January ( ) -4, February -1, March -1, April May -1, June -3, July -2, * These figures vary from earlier Monthly Employment Watch tables, which reported preliminary BLS monthly employment estimates. The data in Table 1 reflect revisions and re-estimates by BLS and are considered more accurate. Among the nation s 50 largest cities, 22 registered annual employment declines between July (including, of course, Milwaukee). This is up from 19 in June and 14 in May, a sign of continued weakening in the labor markets of cities across the country, and potentially an important economic trend as the November presidential election approaches.

4 In July 2008, Milwaukee ranked 37 th among the nation s 50 largest cities in the rate of annual employment growth (compared to 42 nd in June), and 15 th among the nation s 20 largest Northeast- Midwest Frostbelt cities (compared to 17 th in June). Since the UWMCED Monthly Employment Watch began in June 2007, Milwaukee has consistently ranked well below the median in employment growth in both groups of cities. The slight ranking improvement for Milwaukee in July may reflect simply statistical noise, a monthly blip, or a widening and deepening of employment loss in cities across the country. But, given the continuing employment losses in Milwaukee, the slight ranking improvement in July is small comfort. Since 2004, July employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 1,380 residents (0.55), placing the city 44 h among the nation s 50 largest cities in employment growth during this period (compared to 46 h in June). Among the 20 largest Frostbelt cities, Milwaukee ranked 15 th in employment change between July , (unchanged from June). These rankings confirm, once again, that Milwaukee ranks among the bottom tier of the nation s largest cities in employment growth in recent years. Moreover, the employment decline between July means City Hall claims that over 11,00 jobs have been created in the city of Milwaukee since the current administration came to office are, to put it euphemistically, overstated. Since 2000, the end of the last national business cycle, July employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 21,072, a substantial 7.84 decline. Milwaukee ranks 46 th among the nation s 50 largest cities during this period in employment performance; among Frostbelt cities, we rank 18 th out of 20. Finally, comparison of July unemployment rates in the 50 largest cities reveals that Milwaukee had the 39 th highest unemployment rate among the nation s 50 largest cities; in July 2008, we also ranked 39 th and in June 2008 we ranked 37 th. Between June 2007 and March 2008, Milwaukee consistently ranked in the range on this indicator, compared to an average ranking in the high 20s in the late 1990s (and as high as 16 th in the early 1990s). Since April 2008, Milwaukee has ranked between 37-40, a modest improvement over very recent trends, but still poor by historical standards.

5 Table 2 -- Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: Rank City July 2007 July Las Vegas 272, , El Paso 233, , Virginia Beach 223, , Houston 985,303 1,002, San Antonio 589, , Dallas 564, , Fort Worth 298, , San Francisco 416, , Austin 399, , Charlotte 326, , Atlanta 215, , Portland 284, , Miami 169, , Washington, D.C. 312, , New York 3,669,158 3,702, Mesa City 244, , Phoenix 806, , Fresno 211, , Boston 292, , Honolulu 437, , Albuquerque 256, , San Jose 424, , Seattle 354, , Baltimore 262, , Omaha 221, , San Diego 657, , Indianapolis 410, , Jacksonville 399, , Denver 304, , Columbus 403, , Philadelphia 586, , Sacramento 203, , Wichita 183, , Tucson 253, , Oakland 181, , Colorado Springs 209, , Milwaukee 250, , Oklahoma City 248, , Chicago 1,267,911 1,251, Louisville 343, , Nashville 308, , Detroit 310, , Minneapolis 209, , Cleveland 176, , Long Beach 224, , Los Angeles 1,808,300 1,775, Kansas City 225, , St. Louis 147, , Memphis 299, , Tulsa 200, ,

6 Table 3 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: Rank City July 2004 July Fort Worth 264, , Miami 149, , Atlanta 195, , Phoenix 734, , Mesa City 223, , Seattle 324, , Albuquerque 236, , San Antonio 551, , Jacksonville 367, , Colorado Springs 190, , Washington, D.C. 291, , Charlotte 307, , Boston 276, , New York 3,483,889 3,702, Denver 286, , San Francisco 397, , Tucson 238, , San Jose 403, , Fresno 201, , Wichita 173, , Houston 951,302 1,002, Virginia Beach 216, , Las Vegas 267, , Portland 275, , Austin 386, , Columbus 387, , Honolulu 423, , El Paso 231, , Omaha 214, , San Diego 634, , Nashville 293, , Sacramento 196, , Memphis 281, , Long Beach 213, , Los Angeles 1,723,685 1,775, Baltimore 255, , Louisville 330, , Chicago 1,227,683 1,251, Oakland 177, , Kansas City 218, , Indianapolis 408, , Philadelphia 581, , Dallas 574, , Milwaukee 249, , Oklahoma City 249, , Minneapolis 209, , St. Louis 148, , Cleveland 181, , Detroit 321, , Tulsa 196, ,

7 Table 4 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: Rank City July 2000 July Phoenix 655, , Mesa City 199, , Las Vegas 230, , Fort Worth 255, , Miami 148, , San Antonio 519, , Atlanta 193, , Tucson 223, , San Diego 584, , Albuquerque 228, , Virginia Beach 202, , Sacramento 180, , Seattle 321, , Colorado Springs 187, , Fresno 192, , Charlotte 299, , Houston 911,524 1,002, El Paso 218, , Jacksonville 372, , New York 3,469,315 3,702, Washington, D.C. 297, , Honolulu 415, , Omaha 210, , Wichita 173, , Los Angeles 1,700,872 1,775, Long Beach 210, , Austin 387, , Columbus 389, , Denver 296, , Nashville 303, , Oklahoma City 246, , Boston 296, , Indianapolis 415, , Memphis 294, , Baltimore 266, , Portland 293, , Kansas City 225, , Philadelphia 602, , Louisville 349, , Dallas 592, , Oakland 186, , Chicago 1,316,078 1,251, Minneapolis 219, , St. Louis 155, , San Francisco 456, , Milwaukee 268, , Tulsa 202, , Cleveland 192, , San Jose 478, , Detroit 353, ,

8 Table 5 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities Rank City July 2007 July St. Paul (MN) 139, , Washington, D.C. 312, , New York 3,669,158 3,702, Boston 292, , Baltimore 262, , Omaha 221, , Indianapolis 410, , Pittsburgh Columbus 403, , Philadelphia 586, , Buffalo Wichita 183, , Cincinnati 158, , Milwaukee 250, , Chicago 1,267,911 1,251, Detroit 310, , Minneapolis 209, , Cleveland 176, , Kansas City 225, , St. Louis 147, ,

9 Table 6- Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities Rank City July 2004 July St. Paul (MN) 140, , Washington, D.C. 291, , Cincinnati 147, , Boston 276, , New York 3,483,889 3,702, Wichita 173, , Columbus 387, , Omaha 214, , Baltimore 255, , Chicago 1,227,683 1,251, Kansas City 218, , Indianapolis 408, , Philadelphia 581, , Pittsburgh Milwaukee 249, , Minneapolis 209, , Buffalo St. Louis 148, , Cleveland 181, , Detroit 321, ,

10 Table 7- Employment Growth in the Twenty Largest Frostbelt Cities Rank City July 2000 July St. Paul (MN) 149, , New York 3,469,315 3,702, Washington, D.C. 297, , Omaha 210, , Wichita 173, , Columbus 389, , Cincinnati 152, , Boston 296, , Indianapolis 415, , Baltimore 266, , Kansas City 225, , Philadelphia 602, , Pittsburgh Buffalo Chicago 1,316,078 1,251, Minneapolis 219, , St. Louis 155, , Milwaukee 268, , Cleveland 192, , Detroit 353, ,

11 Table 8 -- Unemployment Rates in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities Rank City July 2000 July 2004 July 2007 July Honolulu Tulsa Seattle Omaha Oklahoma City Virginia Beach Austin Mesa City Albuquerque San Antonio Houston Wichita Portland Fort Worth Phoenix Boston New York Dallas Nashville Tucson Indianapolis San Francisco Denver Minneapolis Miami El Paso Colorado Springs Charlotte Columbus San Diego Louisville Jacksonville Las Vegas San Jose Atlanta Washington, D.C Baltimore Philadelphia Milwaukee Kansas City Memphis St. Louis Chicago Sacramento Long Beach Los Angeles Cleveland Fresno Oakland Detroit

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