National Housing Trends

Transcription

1 National Housing Trends

2 America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment Gallup 2017

3 The Cost of RENTING vs. BUYING HISTORICALLY: NOW: Percentage of Income Needed to Afford Median Rent 25.8% 29.2% Percentage of Income Needed to Afford Median Home 21.0% 15.8%

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5 Homeownership Rates in the U.S. for the 2 nd Quarter Census

6 Housing Affordability Index 1990 to Today Years when distressed properties dominated the market NAR

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8 Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price By State CoreLogic

9 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price By State CoreLogic

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11 Buyer Traffic By State NAR

12 Seller Traffic By State NAR

13 Historical Mortgage Rates Have Averaged Around 8%

14 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac Freddie Mac 7/2017

15 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three Q Q Q Q /2017

16 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320

17 Greater Metro Atlanta Market August 2017 Report With Results Through July 2017

18 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold ,000 Homes Sold In ,000 Homes Sold In YTD Closings 4% Higher Than YTD 2016.

19 Jan-13 Metro Atlanta Closings Apr Jul Oct Jan April July Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan April July Oct Jan Apr July Prior Year Current Month July Closings Down 17.3% Compared To June Closings. July 2017 Closings Down 5.2% Compared To July 2016.

20 Metro Atlanta Closings July 2017 (Number Of Transactions By Price) % Of Transactions In $100K-$500K Price Range < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K 621 $500K-$1 mil 90 $1 mil - $2 Mil 17 $2 Mil +

21 Metro Atlanta Closed Units By Price Point July 2017 Compared To July < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +

22 Listed Inventory January 2012 July 2017 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Up 37.7% From Recent Bottom Of Feb Inventory Up 2.2% From Last Month, Down 4.5% Compared To Last Year

23 Months of Inventory Change The Market Strategy LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Home prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Home prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Home prices will depreciate

24 25 20 Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (July 2017, Based On Closed Sales) Months Supply Is Considered Normal Market < $100K $100K- $200K $200K- $500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Total Metro Atlanta Months Of Inventory Is 3.3 Months

25 Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices Jan-13 Apr Jul Oct Jan April July Oct Jan Apr ASP $304,000 In July. ASP $306,000 Last Month. Down.6% From Last Month. Up 5.6% From Last July. Jul Oct Jan Apr July Oct Jan Apr July

26 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices $350 $300 $250 $200 $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $229 $250 $266 $276 $289 $150 $100 $50 $ Annual ASP Up 64% From Bottom Of 2011

27 Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Jan Jun Nov Apr Sept Feb July Dec May October Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sept Feb Jan 2010 Through May 2017 (Reported July 25, 2017) Home Values Up 67% From Recent Bottom Of March 2012.

28 Case-Shiller Gain/ Loss For Metro Atlanta Comparisons Based On The Latest Case Shiller Index Compared To The Average Index For The Year Property Was Purchased. Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Case Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta - May 2017 As Reported July 25, Local Markets And Price Points May Have Significantly Different Outcomes.

29 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta Peak For Values Was July Recent Bottom Was March Metro Average Home Values Back To Normal Trend Line

30 Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties

31 YTD Closed Units July 2017 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 7,230 6,537 4,236 3,594 3,315 2,714 2,364 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm MB HNR CB AFH Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

32 YTD Listing Sales July 2017 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 3,687 3,281 2,116 1,699 1,426 1,328 1,282 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm HNR MB CB AFH Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

33 YTD Buyer Sales July 2017 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 3,543 3,256 2,168 2,120 1,616 1,386 1,082 BHHS KW-AP MB ATL Comm HNR CB AFH Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

34 Current Listing Inventory July 2017 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 2,832 1,579 1,079 1, BHHS KW-AP HNR ATL Comm AFH MB CB Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.

35 Georgia Economic & Housing Trends

36 Top States For Business CNBC Survey

37 Buyers Moving To Atlanta! Here is the Top 10 List including previous rank: 1. Atlanta (1) 2. Phoenix (4) 3. Tampa/Sarasota (2) 4. Dallas/Fort Worth (3) 5. Orlando (5) 6. Denver (7) 7. Houston (8) 8. Seattle (6) 9. Las Vegas (10) 10.Chicago (9) Penske Truck Rental published their latest moving destination list and Atlanta was ranked #1 for the 6 th year in a row. The trend of moving to the sunbelt has returned. Desirable attributes that help Metro Atlanta include a business friendly environment, low cost of living for a metro area, airport, moderate weather with 4 seasons and a high quality of life.

38 Top 10 Markets With Highest Share Of Renters Qualified To Buy 1. Toledo, Ohio: 46% 2. Little Rock, Ark.: 46% 3. Dayton, Ohio: 44% 4. Lakeland, Fla.: 41% 5. St. Louis, Mo.: 41% 6. Columbia, S.C.: 41% 7. Atlanta: 40% 8. Columbus, Ohio: 38% 9. Tampa, Fla.: 38% 10. Ogden, Utah: 38%

39 Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Rank of Share Total Population Under Dallas 6,144, Atlanta 5,271, Phoenix 4,179, Denver 2,466, Riverside 4,081, Houston 5,629, Portland 2,174, Seattle 3,309, Sacramento 2,091, Washington 5,306,125 Metro 14 Atlanta 3 Has 23 The: Los Angeles 12,875, San Diego 2,974,859 #2 Population 8 14 Age San Francisco 4,203, Orlando 2,032, Minneapolis #5 Population Under 20 3,208, Chicago 9,522, New York 18,815, Boston 4,482, Cincinnati 2,134, Baltimore 2,668, Detroit 4,467, Philadelphia 5,827, St. Louis 2,802, Miami 5,413, Tampa 2,723, Cleveland 2,096, Source :Census Bureau Pittsburgh 2,355,

40 Rustbelt To Sunbelt

41 Population & Employment Growth Trends

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43 Population & Employment Growth Trends U.S. Conference of Mayors Report predicts that Metro Atlanta will be the 6 th largest city in the nation by Metro Atlanta will grow from 5.8 million residents to 8.6 million residents. That means 2.8 million people will move to our area! This is great news for our real estate values!