Lodging Industry Overview. 14 December Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global

Transcription

1 Lodging Industry Overview 14 December 2011 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global

2 Global / U.S. Overview Key U.S. Markets Construction Pipeline Forecast Takeaways Today s Agenda

3 RevPar Growth in Most Regions... North America $ YTD -16.9% 6.1% 8.1% Europe $ YTD -21.8% 3.2% 14.7% Central America $ YTD -22.2% 7.9% 0.7% Caribbean $ YTD -16.9% 3.9% 4.7% Asia Pacific $ YTD -19.5% 19.5% 11.2% South America $ YTD -12.2% 19.6% 23.2% Middle East & Africa $ YTD -14.9% 2.9% -2.0% Global RevPar in USD % Change, Full Year / October YTD 2011

4 Total US - Key Statistics October YTD 2011 % Change Hotels 52k Rooms 4.9 million 0.7% Rooms Sold 909 million 5.1% Occupancy 61.8% 4.4% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $93 bn 8.9%

5 Demand Growth Peaked... Supply Heading South Supply Demand 5.5% % % % *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1989 August 2011

6 Total United States Monthly Room Demand (in Millions) and ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2007 to October ADR Room Demand $110 $105 $100 $95 $90 $85 $80 $ $70

7 15 Total United States Quarterly RevPAR Percent Change: Q 2011 & October Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q Oct

8 Chain Scales

9 STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury W Hotel, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton Upper Upscale Marriott, Sheraton, Westin, Hyatt, Hilton Upscale Courtyard, Homewood, Hilton Garden Inn, Hyatt Place Upper Midscale Hampton Inn, Holiday Inn, Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn Midscale Best Western, Country Inn & Suites, Sleep Inn, Wingate Economy Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn, Extended Stay America

10 New Supply Growth Muted Supply Demand Net conversions out of segment driving supply / demand declines Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Chain Scales, Supply & Demand % Change, October YTD 2011

11 ADR Growth Moving Ahead at Upper End Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Chain Scales, OCC & ADR % Change, October YTD 2011

12 Transient Occupancy is Healthy Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Upper Tier Hotels 2011 data through October Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

13 .... but Transient ADR remains well below 2007 Levels $200 $175 $ $125 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Upper Tier Hotels 2011 data through October Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

14 Group Occupancy Below 2007 Levels Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Upper Tier Hotels 2011 data through October Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

15 .... Group ADR also trailing 2007, but gap is closing.. $175 $ $125 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Upper Tier Hotels 2011 data through October Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

16 Key U.S. Markets

17 Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S. Key Performance Indicators Percent Change October 2011 YTD 15 Top 25 Rest of U.S Supply Demand Occ ADR RevPAR

18 Key 15 U.S. Markets New York DC Los Angeles Chicago Orlando San Francisco Miami Boston San Diego Atlanta Anaheim Houston Dallas Oahu Phoenix Excludes Las Vegas

19 Key 15 U.S. Markets RevPar Percent Change October 2011 YTD SAN FRANCISCO MIAMI OAHU LOS ANGELES DALLAS HOUSTON ORLANDO ANAHEIM PHOENIX CHICAGO U.S. BOSTON SAN DIEGO NEW YORK ATLANTA DC Excludes Las Vegas

20 Key 15 U.S. Markets Occupancy Percent Change October 2011 YTD HOUSTON DALLAS MIAMI ORLANDO LOS ANGELES PHOENIX SAN FRANCISCO ANAHEIM U.S. ATLANTA SAN DIEGO OAHU CHICAGO BOSTON NEW YORK DC Excludes Las Vegas

21 Key 15 U.S. Markets ADR Percent Change October 2011 YTD SAN FRANCISCO OAHU NEW YORK LOS ANGELES MIAMI CHICAGO ANAHEIM BOSTON ORLANDO DALLAS U.S. SAN DIEGO PHOENIX HOUSTON DC ATLANTA Excludes Las Vegas

22 Key 15 U.S. Markets Occupancy October 2011 YTD OAHU NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO MIAMI BOSTON LOS ANGELES ANAHEIM SAN DIEGO DC ORLANDO CHICAGO U.S. ATLANTA HOUSTON DALLAS PHOENIX

23 Key 15 U.S. Markets Average Daily Rate October 2011 YTD NEW YORK OAHU SAN FRANCISCO MIAMI BOSTON DC SAN DIEGO LOS ANGELES CHICAGO ANAHEIM PHOENIX U.S. ORLANDO HOUSTON DALLAS ATLANTA $ $ $ $ $ $ $94.31 $91.52 $86.25 $83.27 $ $ $ $ $ $ $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275

24 Construction Pipeline

25 Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Prior Year Oct 2011 Oct 2010 Change % Chg In Construction 55,139 56, % Planned Pipeline 255, ,909-29, % Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

26 Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale Thousands October % = Upscale & Upper Midscale Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

27 Top 10 MSAs Room Construction October in Thousands NEW YORK 8.4 ORLANDO 2.8 DC 2.6 MIAMI 2.2 DALLAS NASHVILLE k rooms = 44% of U.S. Total PHILADELPHIA 1.3 PHOENIX 1.2 TLANTIC CITY 1.2 PITTSBURGH

28 Top 10 MSAs Room Construction October % Existing Supply NEW YORK 4.9 ATLANTIC CITY 4.9 NASHVILLE 4.2 PITTSBURGH 4.1 PHILADELPHIA 2.5 DC 2.5 ORLANDO 2.4 MIAMI 2.3 PHOENIX 1.9 DALLAS

29 U.S. Projections

30 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators November F 2012F Real GDP +3.0% +1.8% +2.1 % CPI +1.6% +3.2 % +2.2% Corporate Profits +32.2% +7.6% +5.4 % Disp Personal Income +1.8% +1.3% +1.4% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 9.1% 9.0%

31 5 Real GDP Growth / Forecast Quarterly Percent Change vs. Same Quarter Prior Year Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Qf 11 1Qf 12 2Qf 12 3Qf 12 4Qf 12 Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators 10 November 2011

32 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2010 Actual & 2011 / 2012 Forecast F 2012 F Supply Demand Occ ADR RevPAR

33 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale 2011 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 5.0% 6.1% 11.3% Upper Upscale 2.5% 3.8% 6.4% Upscale 3.7% 3.4% 7.3% Upper Midscale 5.0% 3.3% 8.5% Midscale 2.7% -0.9% 1.8% Economy 3.6% 2.0% 5.7% Independent 4.1% 3.3% 7.6% Total United States 4.0% 3.6% 7.7%

34 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 1.3% 5.5% 6.9% Upper Upscale -0.6% 4.0% 3.4% Upscale 1.4% 4.2% 5.7% Upper Midscale -0.2% 3.8% 3.6% Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% Economy 0.6% 2.3% 3.0% Independent -0.6% 3.0% 2.4% Total United States 0.2% 3.7% 3.9%

35 Takeaways Value is King Slower economy 2H 2012 improvement? Low supply growth - most markets Demand growth, but slower Pricing traction sustained? Climb out continues