Real Estate Development Law Update h. February 15 th, Jeff Meyers Principal Meyers LLC (949) x200
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1 Allen Matkins Real Estate Development Law Update h February 15 th, 2012 Jeff Meyers Principal Meyers LLC (949) x200
2 JOB TRENDS Job Postings per Capita, 4Q11 Rank (Last Qtr Rank) Metropolitan Area Job Postings per 1000 People 1 (1) SanJose Jose, CA (2) Washington, DC (8) Hartford, CT Raleigh, NC (6) Baltimore, MD (11) Boston, MA (12) Columbus, OH 98 8 (7) Cleveland, OH 98 9 (16) Milwaukee, WI (4) San Francisco, CA 91 SOURCE:
3 CALIFORNIA NONFARM EMPLOYMENT New Home Market Trends Year-over-year Percent Change 3.00% 8, 2.00% % 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% % Source: BLS; California United States
4 ANNUAL NONFARM JOB CHANGES BY STATE Dec. New 2010 Home vs. Market Dec. Trends , ,500 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 % CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT New Home Market Trends Sept vs. Dec % 0.86% 1.09% 4.77% 1.62% 1.55% 3.32% Source: HousingEcon.com
6 MULTIFAMILY PERMITS History New and Home Forecast Market Trends Historical Total Annual Permit Average = s 4.9 Million 1970 s 6.7 Million 1980 s 5.6 Million 1990 s 3.1 Million 2000 s 3.9 Million 2010 s (Forecast) 4.3 Million Permits (in thou usands) 1,200 1,100 1, Homeown nership Rate Multi Family Homeownership Rate F 2016F 2019F Source: Census; Meyers LLC
7 REALFACTS/MEYERS MF INDEX February New Home 2011 Market Trends Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier Thursday, September 28, San Francisco 5.7 Denver 3.8 Las Vegas 6.8 Washington D.C. 5.7 Charlotte 3.1 Detroit 6.7 San Jose 5.7 Los Angeles 6.4 Boston 5.5 Chicago New York/New Jersey Orange County 6.2 Austin 5.4 Minneapolis 6.2 Oakland 5.1 Phoenix 6.0 Dallas 5.1 Houston 5.9 Seattle 5.1 Miami 5.8 Baltimore 4.8 Sacramento 5.8 Portland 4.7 Atlanta 5.8 San Diego 4.6 Tampa 4.6 United States 2/ 4.2 Inland Empire 4.1 Jacksonville Source: RealFacts/Meyers
8 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & NEW HOME SALES United States New Home Market Trends HAI INDEX SC CORE 80 Annual Mortgage Rates: % Thursday, September 28, % % % Currently 3.87% NEW SFD HOME SALES Source: CAR, Census, Freddie Mac, HWMI US New Home Sales US Affordability
9 MORTGAGE STANDARDS TIGHTENING FICO New Scores Home Market & Down TrendsPayment Requirements FICO SCORES S Average FICO score is 711 Thursday, September 28, FICO Score Down Payment 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Dow wn Payment % Source: Harvard Americas
10 FANNIE MAE & FREDDIE MAC LOSSES/GAINS Single-Family New Home Versus Market Trends Multifamily Thursday, Fannie Mae September 28, 2006 Freddie Mac 2Q11 3Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Single Family $5 Billion $3.7 7 Billion $2.4 4 Billion $3.5 5 Billion Multifamily $87 Million $72 Million $200 Million $205 Million Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
11 Southern California.
12 EXISTING HOME SALES BY COUNTY Attached New Home and Market Detached: Trends F 350, , Average ( ): 256, , , , , Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San Diego Ventura 2011E 2012F 2013F Source: Dataquick
13 NEW HOME SALES BY COUNTY Attached New Home and Market Detached: Trends F 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Average ( ): 43,482 30,000 20,000 10, Los Angeles Orange Riverside SanBernardino SanDiego Ventura 2011E 2012F 2013F Source: Dataquick
14 S&P CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDICES % Change Nov vs. Nov % 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% MI Detroit DC Washington CO Denver TX Dallas OH Cleveland MA Boston NC Charlotte NY New York Composite 10 AZ Phoenix Composite 20 FL Miami OR Portland MN MinneapolisMi CA San Diego CA Los Angeles CA San Francisco IL Chicago FL Tampa WA Seattle NV Las Vegas GA Atlanta Source: Standard & Poors;
15 FINISHED LOT LAND INDEX Southern California SOURCE: DataQuick
16 TRUSTEES DEEDS RECORDED Southern New Home California Market Trends by County 4Q10 4Q11 % Change Los Angeles County 5,597 5, % Orange County 1,693 1, % San Diego County 2,433 2, % Riverside County 3,942 3, % San Bernardino County 3,272 2, % Ventura County % Imperial County % Southern California 17,810 15, % 1% Thursday, September 28, 2006 Distribution ib i of 4Q11 Ven, 4% SB, 17% Imp, 1% LA, 34% SoCal = 51% of the states foreclosures Riv, 21% SD, 13% OC, 10% Source: DataQuick
17 TOP 10 HOMEBUILDERS Orange County Rank (Previous Rank) Company Total Closings Yearly % Change 1 (5) Brookfield Home Corp (p) % 2 (2) Lennar Corp. (p) % 3 (1) J.F. Shea Co % 4 (NR) Van Daele Homes 172 N/A 5 (7) KB Home (p) % 6 (6) William Lyon Homes, Inc % 7 (4) Shapell Homes 135 6% 8 (9) Toll Brothers, Inc. (p) 81 19% 9 (NR) Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. 78 N/A 10 (NR) Irvine Pacific LP 75* N/A (P) Denotes publicly traded builder * Denotes OCBJ estimate SOURCE: OCBJ
18 MAP OF NEW FOR-SALE DEVELOPMENTS Orange County SOURCE: HW
19 Capital Markets.
20 Apartments are the favored food group SOURCE: Meyers LLC
21 Equity returns have moved Apartments are the favored down slightly food group 20% vs. 25% SOURCE: Meyers LLC
22 High barrier Apartments are the favored to entry markets food group High barrier SOURCE: Meyers LLC to entry markets
23 Apartments Co Invest is are the favored mandatory food group Debt is starting to reappear. mainly recourse SOURCE: Meyers LLC
24 G&A is stingy. Apartments are the favored food group SOURCE: Meyers LLC
25 com thank you.
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