Scotland Route Utilisation Strategy Generation Two

Transcription

1 June 2011 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two

2 Contents 3 Foreword 4 Executive summary Background Scope Current capacity, demand, and deivery Committed schemes Future demand Gaps and options Consutation process and overview Strategy Next steps 101 Appendix A 109 Appendix B 110 Gossary

3 Foreword Scotand has benefited significanty from investment to improve performance, capacity and reiabiity of its raiway network. This investment has ed to both network growth and increased demand. The raiway network has so far responded we to the demands paced upon it by a greater than expected increase in usage by both passenger and freight customers. It is widey recognised that transport infrastructure pays a crucia roe in economic deveopment. However, with the current constraints on the nation s finances, it is more important than ever that proposed investments in transport infrastructure can be shown to deiver rea benefits for the economy, peope s quaity of ife, and the environment. Consequenty, this second generation Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (RUS) revises the demand forecasts of the previous strategy and assesses impications for the network s future capabiities over the next 30 years shoud demand continue to grow at such a rate. Forecast indicators suggest significant growth across the whoe of the Scottish network, but particuary in the Centra Bet. The assessment of future demand has identified gaps between the current capabiities of the existing infrastructure and the train services that use it, and that which is required to accommodate the future passenger and freight service demands. We were deighted that there was such a positive response to the consutation draft pubished ast year and we have taken account of these responses in deveoping this document. Scotand s raiway and the needs it serves are diverse. Not ony does the network cover a arge geographica area supporting some 2,500 daiy services, it aso provides rapid access aong busy commuter routes to the major cities as we as supporting rura services and the needs of freight customers. The inks to Engand via both the East and West Coast Main Lines are aso critica to Scotand s economy. We beieve that, together with our industry partners, we have created a strategy that wi support, encourage and faciitate the continued growth and deveopment of Scotand s raiway, taking particuar account of the Scottish Government s priorities as defined in their Strategic Transport Projects Review (December 2008). We have identified opportunities and interventions to make effective and efficient use of the raiway network and to deveop additiona capacity. The RUS wi aso feed into and inform the rai industry s Initia Industry Pan for Scotand for the period beyond 2014 which in turn wi guide the Scottish Government s specification for the raiway going forward. Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation ast October, we have devoved responsibiity for the network in Scotand to a ocay based team ed by the Route Managing Director. This provides a very cear focus to deiver the requirements of customers and funders in Scotand working very cosey with passenger and freight operators, particuary ScotRai. The raiway makes a big contribution to Scotand s economy, its communities and future sustainabiity. Continued investment is essentia to meet the ever increasing demand from passengers and businesses to trave or move their goods by rai. We are committed to providing and supporting opportunities to maximise the potentia and capabiity of Scotand s raiway. We woud ike to take this opportunity to thank industry coeagues who have contributed information and worked with us to deiver this RUS and we ook forward to working with our partners to make it a reaity. Pau Pummer Group Strategy Director 3

4 Executive Summary Introduction The rai network in Scotand serves a diverse set of markets incuding ong distance interurban trave between the major urban centres, commuting into Aberdeen, Inverness, Edinburgh and Gasgow and onger distance journeys to Engish and Wesh cities via both the East Coast and West Coast Main Lines. A number of rura markets are served, particuary in the Highands and South West Scotand. Considerabe numbers of freight services operate across the network such as Ango Scottish services to the major terminas at Mossend and Grangemouth, domestic coa traffic to Longannet and Engish power stations and other buk traffic incuding cement, oi and timber products operating to and from the Centra Bet. Scope and background The Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) buids on the Scotand RUS estabished in May The RUS recommends an industry strategy ooking in detai to 2024 as we as setting out the vision for the route in the onger term. As with other RUSs the strategy has been deveoped in conjunction with rai industry stakehoders and wider stakehoders have aso been consuted. The RUS area comprises 1,516 route mies and 2,218 track mies. The geographic area extends from Thurso in the north to the southern extent of Edinburgh Waverey in the east, Carstairs South Jn on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) and Gretna Jn on the Gasgow & South Western Route. A passenger and freight services that use these routes for part or a of their journeys are considered, incuding those from south of the border that operate over the East and West Coast Main Lines. 4

5 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Committed schemes Network Rai s Deivery Pan for Contro Period 4 (CP4), from 2009 to 2014, sets out the pan for deivering improvements in the safety, reiabiity and capacity of the raiway system required by the Scottish Government s High Leve Output Specification and some other vaue for money projects. The pan incudes measures to increase capacity through train engthening and the depoyment of new and cascaded roing stock. Schemes to improve performance and journey times are aso incuded. Capacity on the Invercyde and Ayrshire routes is being increased by the provision of additiona infrastructure between Paisey and Gasgow and at Gasgow Centra station itsef (the atter now compete). It aso incudes a number of major schemes, such as the opening of a new section of raiway between Airdrie and Bathgate which has deivered a step change in connectivity between the Gasgow North Eectric services and Edinburgh. The pan incudes measures to increase capacity through train engthening and the depoyment of new and cascaded roing stock. Schemes to improve performance and journey times are aso incuded. The Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) wi commence in CP4 and wi deiver eectrification between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street via Fakirk High, onto Stiring, Dunbane and Aoa and the Cumbernaud ine. Upon competion in Contro Period 5 (CP5) a major recast of the existing timetabe wi occur with provision of six trains an hour on the main ine between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street with fastest journey times of 37 minutes. The panned extension of services from Newcraigha to Tweedbank via Gaashies is aso proposed for deivery during CP4 funded by Transport Scotand. Passenger and freight demand Compared to the forecasts in the estabished Scotand RUS, passenger demand has grown faster than forecast. Since the ast RUS, Scottish Ministers have announced significant investment in the raiways. In response to these changes the RUS ooked at two growth scenarios for passenger demand. The first scenario is where growth rates return to a eve predicted by standard forecast methodoogy. The other scenario refects a course of events where rai demand continues to perform strongy. The demand for rai trave in the Gasgow conurbation is forecast to increase by 24 per cent under the first scenario and 38 per cent under the second scenario by 2024/25. The growth rate for the Edinburgh conurbation is anticipated to be higher as a resut of the considerabe investment in the rai infrastructure and economic growth. The Edinburgh growth is forecast to be 90 per cent and 115 per cent unti 2024/25. Outside the Centra Bet strong growth is aso forecast to occur. Factors driving this increase in demand across Scotand incude housing deveopment and economic growth. Committed schemes such as the opening of two new ines and the investment in EGIP are anticipated to increase demand significanty. The strong growth is set against a busy network with a considerabe amount of committed investment. The resut is that some of the demand increases can be accommodated, whie on some corridors there is anticipated to be a degree of crowding. The freight forecasts for 2019 and 2030 were deveoped from the Strategic Freight Network (SFN). The fastest growth (assuming appropriate gauge cearance works are deivered) is in the non-buk market with annua growth rates forecast as 11 per cent for domestic non-buk and 6 per cent for port driven non-buk. The buk sector is aso forecast to grow abeit at a sower rate. Gaps In the scope document for the RUS, a series of gaps for the Scotand RUS (Generation Two) were identified between the capabiity of the existing infrastructure and train services and that required to accommodate the forecast demand for passenger and freight services. These were endorsed by the Stakehoder Management Group (SMG). These gaps were spit by market (suburban, interurban, rura and Ango Scottish). In addition three further gap groups were considered: freight, network avaiabiity and station termina capacity. Options Options were then generated against each gap. The options eading to RUS recommendations are summarised beow: Options to address gaps on suburban The suburban market covers commuting trips into the Gasgow and Edinburgh conurbations. Options appraised on the Gasgow suburban routes incude the foowing: A number of options have been proposed to address peak crowding on the Paisey corridor. The first of these is to recast the timetabe to spit inner and outer suburban services to ascertain whether roing stock savings can be generated by operating six-car inner services whist outer services are operated 5

6 Executive Summary using three or four-car sets. Combined with this, it is proposed to move stops from outer suburban services (particuary from Ayrshire) to the new inner suburban services both to baance oads between services and to improve journey times. This combination of options has been passed to the Paisey Corridor Improvement workstream to consider and deveop. Demand forecasts show that there wi be significant crowding on Argye ine services by 2019, even with some reief provided by additiona roing stock from the Airdrie to Bathgate cascade. Two options were considered by the RUS to address this gap. First, train engthening, and second a peak shutte service from Newton to Anderston, couped with the diversion and acceeration of peak hour services from Lanark to Gasgow Centra High Leve. Train engthening coud not provide sufficient capacity to meet demand in the peak hour as trains are imited by the ength of the patforms to six cars. Modeing showed that running three peak Lanark services faster into Gasgow Centra High Leve was feasibe without compromising performance. One three-car unit coud be saved, and used to operate Newton to Anderston peak shuttes in the paths that the Lanark trains currenty occupy on the Argye ine. This scheme woud require the doubing of the Newton North Connecting Line (currenty proposed as part of EGIP) but economic anaysis demonstrated that the crowding benefits and journey time improvements reaised by this option coud support this, based on a best case timetabe which baances stopping patterns and connectivity with journey times. This option is therefore recommended for further deveopment. If the Whiffet and Barrhead ines are eectrified and the current two-car diese roing stock is repaced by three-car eectric trains then the predicted crowding on this route can be accommodated. This option is being considered by the Tier 3 eectrification project aong with other routes such as those to East Kibride, Kimarnock, Edinburgh Waverey via Shotts and Paisey Cana. A suburban routes into Gasgow were considered to see whether there was an economic case for operating earier services into the centre except where an eary service has aready been introduced. The route that offered the greatest potentia was the Argye ine where an earier service coud be provided from the existing resource base. As a guide to funders, economic anaysis estimated the number of passengers that the earier service woud need to attract to have a sufficienty high benefit to cost ratio. The RUS concuded that given existing oadings, services on the Argye ine from South Lanarkshire woud achieve this. The impact on station opening arrangements woud need to be considered. Options appraised on the Edinburgh suburban routes incude the foowing: A number of services on the Fife routes are expected to experience crowding by Many of these trains operate over considerabe distances and therefore train engthening does not offer good vaue for money. An option has been deveoped to add stops to one ighty oaded morning peak service from Perth to Edinburgh Waverey to baance oads between trains. This option can be impemented at minima cost and is therefore recommended. Two options were deveoped to address anticipated overcrowding on North Berwick services by The first option extended the current service that starts at Prestonpans back to Drem (at the expense of operating through to Haymarket as the service currenty does). The crowding reief addressed by this option means that it has a vaue for money case and is therefore recommended as a short-term option. A onger term soution for North Berwick services shoud be higher density three-car roing stock that can be strengthened to six cars in the peak to appropriatey manage the oadings. The RUS recommends that roing stock poicy is kept under review to deiver this soution in the ong term. It is recognised that the Scottish Government target of a maximum standing time of 10 minutes may ead to roing stock traveing ong distances to sove short distance crowding issues. The financia and environmenta impications of this are recognised and it is recommended that this be reconsidered as part of future franchise specification. This aso impacts on some interurban services. Options to address gaps on interurban services The interurban market comprises ong distance interna Scottish passenger services between Edinburgh and Gasgow and between the Centra Bet and the major economic centres of Aberdeen and Inverness and between Aberdeen and Inverness themseves. Options considered incude: The EGIP timetabe has been anaysed to see whether enough capacity is provided to meet demand to 2024 on the corridor between Stiring and Edinburgh Waverey. Anaysis shows that the existing service pattern of two trains per hour (tph), even when engthened to six cars does not meet demand and that one further high-peak service is required. This additiona service has now been incuded in the proposed EGIP timetabe. Weekend capacity on the corridor suggests that existing train engths wi not match demand in 2024 and therefore train engthening from the existing resource base is recommended. By 2024 it is anticipated that suppy wi not match demand for commuter services into Aberdeen from both the Stonehaven ine and the Inverness route in the morning peak. A number of options have been considered to address this. First, existing 6

7 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 train services on the Stonehaven ine coud be engthened, but because of the distance that these services operate no case coud be found for this option. Second a peak busting service from Stonehaven was considered in the shouder peak. Roing stock from the existing resource base has been identified that coud provide such a service and this option is therefore recommended. In the evening peak, train engthening on the Stonehaven corridor has been considered but, as with the morning peak, the distance traveed by these services suggests this is poor vaue for money and therefore cannot be recommended. A new evening service from Aberdeen to Hunty was appraised but coud not be recommended on account of high operating costs. Station operation at Aberdeen is constrained by the track ayout, particuary at the north end of the station. Anaysis shows that reinstatement of Patform 8 woud have performance and capacity benefits. Based on the resource savings achievabe by the franchise operator this scheme has a viabe vaue for money case and is therefore recommended. Considerabe timetabing anaysis has been undertaken to understand the constraints on the route which prevent the introduction of an houry service between Aberdeen and Inverness. The resuts of the anaysis have been passed to the Tier 3 workstream with a remit to deveop suitabe options to address this gap. Transport Scotand aspires to provide an houry service between Inverness and the Centra Bet with faster journey times. Timetabe anaysis conducted by the RUS has identified the constraints on the route. A number of options have been deveoped to improve journey times between Aberdeen and the Centra Bet, a key priority identified by the Scottish Government s Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR). A revised train service proposition comprising 1 tph Aberdeen Dundee Haymarket Edinburgh Waverey, 1 tph Aberdeen Dundee Perth Gasgow Queen Street and 1 tph a stations Aberdeen to Dundee was modeed with additiona infrastructure provided on the critica Montrose Usan singe ine section. Three variants were considered: doube tracking of the viaduct at Montrose and the cutting to Usan on the existing aignment, doube tracking of the viaduct at Montrose then a new aignment to the west of the existing (thus avoiding doubing the track in the deep rock cutting to the south of the viaduct) and a whoy new aignment skirting Montrose bay to the west. The most cost effective option was deemed to be the new aignment to the west of the existing, however the capita cost invoved suggested that even this woud provide poor vaue for money. Anaysis of minor inespeed upgrades at Arbroath station, Dock Street tunne to the north of Dundee station and to the south end of Perth station have been assessed. Resuts show that the Arbroath scheme offers poor vaue for money with a capita cost of 25 miion to achieve a ess than one minute journey time saving for non stop services (most trains currenty ca at Arbroath and any reduction in service eve is ikey to be resisted). Dock Street tunne ine speed improvement has been recommended for further deveopment through the Sma Projects Fund as engineers beieve that some minor improvements may be possibe. At Perth station the ayout of the track makes provision of suitabe signaing and signage within standards very difficut. The RUS notes that when the track and signaing is renewed (for which there is currenty no panned date but is ikey to be in Contro Period 6 (CP6) or ater) an improvement woud be possibe. Options to construct new higher speed sections on the route have been examined but no viabe option has been identified. To improve the service offer between Gasgow and Edinburgh, a timetabe concept for an a night service between the two cities was appraised. Economic modeing suggested that this woud need to attract considerabe numbers of passengers to make the scheme viabe and this is not recommended at this time. However, it is recommended that the service between the cities starts one hour earier to provide for earier arrivas into Gasgow and Edinburgh, to aid the economy of both cities and to provide for improved onward connections southbound into Scotand Engand services. Transport Scotand aspires to provide an houry service between Inverness and the Centra Bet with faster journey times. Timetabe anaysis conducted by the RUS has identified the constraints on the route and in particuar consideration of additiona oops at Etteridge (between Dawhinnie and Kingussie) and/or Bainuig (between Dunked and Pitochry) has been undertaken. The idea ocation of passing oops is difficut to estabish as it is entirey dependant on the particuar timetabe being anaysed. Resuts of the anaysis have therefore been passed to the Highand Main Line Tier 3 project for further consideration. 7

8 Executive Summary Options to address gaps on rura services Services in the rura market comprise the Far North ine services from Inverness to Kye of Lochash, Wick and Thurso, services on the West Highand ine between Gasgow Queen Street and Oban, Fort Wiiam and Maaig and services between Gasgow Centra and Stranraer, and Gasgow Centra and Carise via Dumfries. Options assessed to address gaps in the rura market incude: A number of services on Saturdays are anticipated to experience crowding between Dumfries and Carise in 2019 due to the high number of shopping trips. The RUS recommends that train engthening from the existing resource base is impemented as passenger numbers grow. There are arge gaps in the service on this route on Sundays. Earier Sunday services were considered but given the 24-hour a day weekday freight service, maintenance access issues woud need to be resoved before this option coud be progressed. The RUS recommends that additiona services are operated to fi the gaps in the Sunday afternoon service particuary between Carise and Dumfries athough staffing issues for the franchise operator need to be considered in detai before this option is impemented. The current service on the Stranraer ine is no onger serving the intended markets with four out of the seven services arriving at Stranraer after 17:00 and three departing after 19:00. Management of the train services to connect with ferry services to Northern Ireand is difficut as saiing times frequenty change and the ong singe ine sections on the route couped to constrained roing stock resources mean that there is itte scope for significant changes. It is anticipated that a revised service focussed on oca trave needs wi be introduced on the Stranraer ine after the ferry termina at Stranraer coses. There are a number of permanent speed restrictions on the rura routes which eads to sub-optima journey times. An economic appraisa has been undertaken to estimate the range of capita spend that coud be used to support a one minute improvement in journey times on each route. The route that demonstrated the greatest potentia was that between Gasgow Centra and Carise via Dumfries. Options to address Ango Scottish gaps The West Coast Main Line RUS (panned for pubication in ony 2011) is considering gaps arising on Ango Scottish services on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) and the East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review considers potentia uses of East Coast Main Line (ECML) capacity at the end of CP4. Emerging deveopments from these workstreams have been incuded in the termina capacity gaps work. Options to improve ong distance services at Motherwe and to improve diversionary routes in the Gasgow suburban area have been considered in conjunction with these workstreams. Options to address freight gaps The freight forecasts deveoped by the SFN for 2019 and 2030 were anaysed to see whether any specific freight capacity gaps arose in Scotand. Where interventions described under the passenger markets above are proposed then the freight impacts have been considered as part of the anaysis. Specific freight gaps and options that have been considered incude: Freight growth is potentiay constrained on the Shotts route by the recenty enhanced passenger service and the ong signa sections. The RUS recommends that signaing headways are reduced as resignaing occurs on the route with the first section being impemented as part of Motherwe North resignaing panned for CP5. Anaysis was undertaken to mode the reiabiity benefits to passenger services of remodeing Sateford Jn, but the benefits did not justify the costs invoved as a standaone scheme. The RUS recommends that and adjacent to the junction is protected so that a scheme to redoube the junction coud be deveoped when the area is resignaed. A scheme to remode Midcader Jn as a doube junction is aready being progressed in CP4. Greenhi Jn is a considerabe constraint particuary for freight services operating towards Grangemouth, Longannet power station or the north. Whist EGIP provides for grade separation at Greenhi Jn, thus easing this capacity constraint, the RUS has anaysed the effects of providing a bi-directiona ooping faciity on the Scottish Centra Line south of Greenhi Lower Jn. The reiabiity benefits of the scheme were estimated as reducing 50 per cent of the reactionary deay caused by freight trains heading north with the oop acting as a reguating point. Economic modeing has demonstrated that the reiabiity benefits are adequate to justify the scheme. The RUS recommends that this scheme is further deveoped as an incrementa enhancement to the EGIP works using the Sma Projects Fund. With the desire to operate onger freight services aong the ength of the WCML, the abiity to hande ong freight trains at Mossend is a constraint. Options for onger oops are being deveoped using Tier 3 deveopment funding. In order to permit intermoda services with standard containers, the option to enhance gauge cearance from W9 to W10 between Newcaste and Carstairs, via the Edinburgh Suburban ine, is recommended for deivery in CP4. 8

9 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Options to address network avaiabiity gaps Network avaiabiity in terms of the time avaiabe for operators to run services was considered a potentia gap. In order to address the gap the whoe of the Scotand network was anaysed in detai and the RUS considered where operators have a desire for routes to be open for onger than currenty. Two specific issues were identified and these have been appraised as foows: The option of operating freight services between Perth and Inverness via Dundee and Aberdeen on a one week in six basis when the Highand Main Line is cosed for maintenance has been anaysed and this is recommended, shoud intermoda traffic eves grow as predicted. Operators expressed a desire to be abe to operate earier services on the WCML on Sundays. The RUS therefore recommends that consideration is given to the provision of bi-directiona signaing between Law Jn and Carstairs and on to Carise when resignaing becomes due. Options to address termina capacity gaps As more services operate and demand continues to grow, termina capacity begins to become an ever increasing constraint to the deveopment of the rai network. Gasgow Centra, Gasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverey patform and passenger throughput constraints in 2016 and 2030 have been anaysed. In the onger term, maintaining rai s competitiveness on onger distance routes wi require not ony taking advantage of renewas to reduce journey time but aso improving customer service to provide more seamess end-to-end journeys. At Gasgow Queen Street the additiona patform suggested by the EGIP programme is required if both Croy and Stiring services are engthened to six cars. At Gasgow Centra issues arise in the 2030 scenario particuary on the approaches to the station. If High Speed 2 (HS2) services commence then accommodating an increasing number of ong trains within the station wi become difficut. The RUS notes that growth in pedestrian fows may resut in a requirement for aterations to circuating arrangements earier than this. Options to address this have been deveoped for future consideration. Known interventions can be accommodated at Edinburgh Waverey unti HS2 services arrive, which due to their ength wi be difficut to accommodate. 30-year vision The recommendations set out above are based on the detaied anaysis of the gaps and options necessary to accommodate growth up to Beyond this the RUS considers what schemes may be required to continue to deiver on the objectives specified in the Nationa Transport Strategy (NTS) and STPR. The onger term strategy for the Gasgow conurbation market coud incude: engthening both existing services and the peak busting services, greater differentiation of inner and outer suburban services, additiona terminas in centra Gasgow and incentives to better spread peak trave. Growth in the Edinburgh passenger market is forecast to be significant. In order to accommodate the increase in commuter journeys on each rai corridor, the strategy of either train engthening or additiona services gives the foundation for the onger term. Continued growth coud be addressed argey through progressive train engthening of both the existing services and the peak busting services, by greater differentiation of inner and outer suburban services, possibe use of Haymarket as a termina station and incentives to better spread peak trave. The additiona capacity provided by EGIP is expected to be sufficient to around 2030, particuary if increased use can be made of the improved services from Gasgow Centra via Shotts and Carstairs. The Edinburgh market aready sees a significant spread of the peak period but EGIP wi provide spare shouder-peak capacity so incentives to better spread peak trave wi be particuary important on this route. As suburban passenger traffic grows the position may be reached at some point where it wi be cost effective to spit the suburban and interurban market. This approach woud permit interurban services between Edinburgh, Gasgow, Aberdeen, and Inverness to be better focused with an improved timetabe. In the onger term, maintaining rai s competitiveness on onger distance routes wi require not ony taking advantage of renewas to reduce journey time but aso improving customer service to provide more seamess end-to-end journeys. The rura routes in Scotand provide a significant chaenge going forward. In the ong term more cost effective soutions to deivering rura raiways wi be essentia for these routes. Options coud incude: changes to signaing technoogy and targeted onger trains to improve capacity, athough these might require onger patforms on some rura routes uness Seective Door Operation (SDO) is utiised. 9

10 Executive Summary Current pans anticipate the provision of High Speed Ango Scottish services taking advantage of new ines for at east part of the route from London to Scotand. Current termina capacity in Gasgow and Edinburgh woud be insufficient for such services, and the panning for these new routes wi need to incude the provision of suitabe termina capacity and adequate interchange to aow passengers to reach their utimate destination quicky and efficienty. In the onger term the network wi have adequate capacity on many of the core routes to provide for the freight traffic growth forecast. Nevertheess, there wi be a need for further consideration of the needs of the freight community if growth exceeds that currenty predicted. Steps might be taken to encourage staggering trave times in Edinburgh, Gasgow and other major centres perhaps incentivised by fares poicy. Whist fares poicy is a matter for Government, incentivised fare structures woud do much to reduce the adverse effect of reativey short morning and evening peaks in terms of roing stock utiisation. Longer, ess intense peaks woud contribute markedy to a reduction in crowding and more economic operation of the oca passenger transport network. The Scottish Government is considering the potentia afforded by the deveopment of new ticketing technoogy, incuding the introduction of smart card technoogy to introduce more fexibe and sophisticated peak pricing and this shoud be accorded a high priority. 10

11 1. Background 1.1 Introduction to Route Utiisation Strategies Foowing the Rai Review in 2004 and the Raiways Act 2005, the Office of Rai Reguation (ORR) modified Network Rai s network icence in June 2005 to require the estabishment and maintenance of Route Utiisation Strategies (RUSs) across the network. Simutaneousy, ORR pubished guideines on RUSs and both of these documents were then updated and re-issued on 1 Apri A RUS is defined in condition 1 of the network icence as, in respect of the network 1 or a part of the network, a strategy which wi promote the route utiisation objective. The route utiisation objective is defined as: the effective and efficient use and deveopment of the capacity avaiabe on the network, consistent with the funding that is, or is ikey to become, avaiabe during the period of the route utiisation strategy and with the icence hoder s performance of the duty. Extract from Network Licence Condition 1, Apri 2009 The ORR Guideines expain how Network Rai shoud consider the position of the raiway funding authorities, their statements, key outputs and any options they shoud wish to be tested. Such strategies shoud address: network capacity and raiway service performance train and station capacity, incuding crowding issues the trade-offs between different uses of the network (eg between different types of passenger and freight services) roing stock issues incuding depoyment, train capacity and capabiity, depot and stabing faciities how maintenance and renewas work can be carried out whie minimising disruption to the network opportunities from using new technoogy opportunities to improve safety. Extract from ORR Guideines on Route Utiisation Strategies Apri 2009 The guideines aso set out principes for RUS scope, time period, processes to be foowed and assumptions to be made. Network Rai has deveoped a RUS manua which consists of a consutation guide and a technica guide. These expain the processes used to compy with the icence condition and guideines. These and other documents reating to individua RUSs and the overa RUS programme are avaiabe on the Network Rai website at The network icence requires Network Rai to both estabish and maintain Route Utiisation Strategies. In March 2007 Network Rai pubished a Route Utiisation Strategy for Scotand which was estabished in May Since that time, there have been a number of significant changes to the raiway in Scotand incuding the pubication of Scottish Ministers Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR). In order to fufi its obigations to maintain estabished RUSs, Network Rai is therefore pubishing this Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two). This strategy buids on the estabished Scotand RUS, identifying where major changes have occurred since 2007 (and wi occur over the next five years) and anaysing interventions in detai which may be required to accommodate passenger and freight demand to In ine with other recenty pubished RUSs, this strategy aso ooks further ahead detaiing, at the strategic eve, some of the interventions that may be required over the next 30 years. The process is designed to be incusive. Joint work is encouraged between industry parties, who share ownership of each RUS through its industry Stakehoder Management Group (SMG). There is aso extensive informa consutation outside the rai industry by means of Rai User Group Workshops and diaogue with the Regiona Transport Partnerships. The ORR Guideines require options to be appraised. In Scotand this is initiay undertaken using the principes of Scottish Transport Appraisa Guidance (STAG), deveoped by the Scottish Government. To support this appraisa work RUSs seek to capture impications for a industry parties and wider societa impacts in order to understand which options maximise net industry and societa benefit, rather than that of any individua organisation or affected group. 1 The definition of network in condition 1 of Network Rai s icence incudes, where the icence hoder has any estate or interest in, or right over a station or ight maintenance depot, such station or ight maintenance depot. 11

12 1. Background RUSs occupy a particuar pace in the panning activity for the rai industry. They utiise avaiabe input from processes such as Transport Scotand s High Leve Output Specification (HLOS) for the period from 2009 to 2014 and the STPR. The recommendations of a RUS and the evidence of reationships and dependencies reveaed in the work to produce them, form an input to decisions made by industry funders and suppiers on issues such as franchise specifications and investment, and the rai industry s Initia Industry Pan (IIP), itsef a precursor to the HLOS process which wi define the outputs required from the industry in the next contro period (Contro Period 5 (CP5) ). Network Rai wi take account of the recommendations from RUSs when carrying out its activities. In particuar, they wi be used to hep inform the aocation of capacity on the network through appication of the norma Network Code processes. ORR wi take account of estabished RUSs when exercising its functions. 1.2 The raiway in Scotand Under the provisions of the 2005 Raiways Act, Scottish Ministers have responsibiity to both specify and fund the raiway outputs they wish to be deivered in Scotand. As the major funder of infrastructure and most passenger train operations within Scotand, Transport Scotand on behaf of Scottish Ministers has the abiity to make choices on the baance of support for future funding of the rai industry. The funding regime for Network Rai is agreed on a five yeary basis, (referred to as contro periods). In respect of CP5 covering the period from 2014 to 2019, Scottish Ministers wi decide the eve of pubic funding aocated to rai and wi deveop a view on the eves of capacity and reiabiity it wishes to procure from this budget. Scottish Ministers required outputs for the Scotand rai network in CP5 wi be specified in the HLOS for Scotand, due to be pubished in summer The ORR wi use this to determine the income Network Rai needs to fund these outputs and compare these with the pubic funds that are avaiabe. Any identified gap wi be cosed by iterations of the specified output eves and associated funding requirements and negotiations between the parties. 12

13 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Scottish Ministers recognise that rai has an important contribution to make towards a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system for Scotand. The rai network in Scotand supports economic growth and deveopment, providing a quaity interurban ink between city regions and inks to major Engish cities and there have been many interventions over the ast 10-years that have increased the capacity of the rai network to meet the growing passenger and freight demand. In December 2008, Scottish Ministers pubished their STPR which sets out strategic transport priorities for the next 20-years. The interventions proposed by the STPR have been seected to support the deivery of the Scottish Government poicy and contribute to the over arching purpose of increasing sustainabe economic growth. The strategy wi be impemented in accordance with an investment hierarchy and as funds become avaiabe. The RUS has payed an important roe in supporting and further deveoping the priorities in the STPR and in informing the next and subsequent HLOSs. The HLOS for the period 2014 to 2019 wi coincide with the timescae for the next ScotRai franchise and it is expected that there wi be synergy between the two processes. 1.3 About this document Network Rai pubished a Draft for Consutation in October 2010 and the responses from stakehoders have heped to shape this Scotand RUS (Generation Two). Chapter 2 of this document covers the geographic scope and time frame of the document as we as the inkage to other workstreams. The current capacity, demand and capabiity of the network are reviewed in Chapter 3 whie Chapter 4 highights existing committed schemes and reviews progress on the recommendations from the previous RUS. Chapter 5 reviews the future demand for rai, eading to the gaps identified on the network and the options to resove them in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 summarises the responses received after pubication of the RUS Draft for Consutation and the additiona anaysis that has been carried out in the ight of those responses. Chapter 8 pus together the recommendations to address the gaps into the strategy for the next 30-years and finay Chapter 9 expains the next steps. 13

14 2. Scope 2.1 Introduction This chapter detais the geographic scope of the Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS), its purpose, RUS governance arrangements, time frame, the panning context in which it is set, and the inkages to other studies. 2.2 Purpose The strategies that emerge through the RUS have a number of purposes. They inform: the optimisation of the output specification for rai infrastructure renewas and enhancements the identification of ways in which capacity coud be used more efficienty, in the context of both the raiway and wider pubic transport the deveopment of the High Leve Output Specification (HLOS) for Scotand and future contro periods. They aso address specific socio-economic deveopments, growth and empoyment. The RUS wi therefore: propose options to achieve the most efficient and effective use of the existing rai network and identify cost effective opportunities to improve it where appropriate enabe Network Rai to deveop an informed renewas, maintenance and enhancements programme in ine with Scottish Ministers aspirations and the reasonabe requirements of train operators and other key stakehoders enabe oca, regiona transport and freight pans to refect a reaistic view of the future rai network. 2.3 Stakehoders and Route Utiisation Strategy governance arrangements The RUS has been managed through a Stakehoder Management Group (SMG), the governing authority for the strategy, which met at key stages during the deveopment of the RUS. The SMG incuded representatives from Transport Scotand, ScotRai, East Coast, CrossCountry, Virgin Trains, First TransPennine Express, DB Schenker, Direct Rai Services, Freightiner, GB Raifreight, Association of Train Operating Companies, Network Rai, Rai Freight Group and Passenger Focus. A representative from the Office of Rai Reguation (ORR) was invited to attend the meetings in an observing capacity. Reporting to the SMG, a number of working group meetings were hed during the deveopment of the RUS with the specific remit to first deveop an understanding of future demand requirements in detai to 2024 and thereafter to deveop and appraise options to address RUS gaps in the suburban, interurban, rura, Ango Scottish and freight market sectors. Network avaiabiity and termina capacity gaps were aso considered by the working group. Membership of the working group comprised Transport Scotand, ScotRai, CrossCountry, DB Schenker, Network Rai, Direct Rai Services, Virgin Trains, East Coast, Freightiner and Rai Freight Group. Meetings were hed both prior to and after the pubication of the RUS Draft for Consutation in October 2010 with each of the Regiona Transport Partnerships and a wider stakehoder briefing was hed in Perth to expain the RUS process and scope and to invite input on reevant issues. 14

15 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure 2.1 geographic scope of Scotand RUS (Generation Two) Thurso Wick Inverness Kye of Lochash Aberdeen Maaig Fort Wiiam Dundee Oban Perth Edinburgh Gasgow Kimarnock Carstairs Ayr Scotand RUS geographic scope Stranraer Dumfries Carise Newcaste Route sections outside the Scotand RUS geographic scope 15

16 2. Scope In addition to the above, a number of individua meetings were hed with various stakehoders within both the SMG and the wider stakehoder community, to discuss their aspirations and views and to present progress to date. 2.4 Route Utiisation Strategy timescaes The RUS covers the period to 2024 in detai and then, as with most other RUSs, describes broader, high eve strategic interventions that may be required over a 30-year timescae. 2.5 Geographic scope The RUS area comprises 1,516 route mies and 2,218 track mies. The geographic area extends from Thurso in the north to the southern extent of Edinburgh Waverey in the east, Carstairs South Jn on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) and Gretna Jn on the Gasgow & South Western Route. The RUS area is divided into two strategic routes, namey Route P (Scotand East) and Route Q (Scotand West). Outwith the RUS area but within Scotand are parts of Route G covering Edinburgh Waverey to the route border near Berwick-upon-Tweed (Scotand portion equates to 59 route mies and 114 track mies) incuding the North Berwick branch, and Route N starts at Carstairs South Jn to the route border near Gretna (Scotand portion equates to 63 route mies and 126 track mies). Strategies for these are incuded within the separate East Coast Main Line and West Coast Main Line RUSs highighted in paragraph 2.7. Figure 2.1 provides an iustration of the geographic area of the Scotand RUS. 2.6 Scope of services The RUS considers a services that use these routes for a or part of their journeys to the extent necessary to achieve the route utiisation objective regardess of whether or not the physica infrastructure is within the boundaries of the scope area of the RUS. The RUS wi therefore incude appropriate anaysis of those traffic generators outside the scope area which have a significant effect on the pattern of demand within the RUS area. For exampe, services from North Berwick to Edinburgh Waverey have been considered when assessing commuting demand into Edinburgh, and ong distance Ango Scottish services have been anaysed in the work undertaken on termina capacity and routeings and caing patterns between Carstairs South Jn and Gasgow Centra. 2.7 Linkage to other workstreams To be successfu and coherent, the RUS cannot be considered in isoation. The RUS is reated to a number of other strategies and poicies: Nationa Transport Strategy (NTS) incuding Scotand s Raiways Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) East Coast Main Line RUS, which incudes the Scotand Route Boundary near Berwick-upon- Tweed to the east end of Edinburgh Waverey station. The concusions from the East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review estabished in February 2011 have aso been considered where appropriate West Coast Main Line RUS pubished as a Draft for Consutation in December 2010, incudes the section from the Scotand Route boundary near Gretna to Carstairs South Jn. Freight RUS and the Strategic Freight Network (SFN), which examines key freight routes Network RUS: Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts Network RUS: Eectrification Network RUS: Stations pubished as a Draft for Consutation in May 2011 Network RUS: Passenger Roing Stock pubished as a Draft for Consutation in May 2011 Network RUS: Passenger Roing Stock Depots Panning Guidance Nationa Transport Strategy and Scotand s Raiways Scotand s Raiways was pubished in December 2006 as part of the NTS and set out the Scottish Government s vision for rai in Scotand. It focused on achieving three key strategic outcomes of improving journey times and connections, reducing emissions and improving quaity, accessibiity and affordabiity. Scotand s Raiways informed the HLOS for Contro Period 4 (CP4). 16

17 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Strategic Transport Projects Review The STPR, pubished in 2008 buids on the work done through the NTS and Scotand s Raiways and sets out Ministers strategic transport priorities for the next 20 years. The strategy sets out an investment hierarchy of: maintaining and safey operating existing assets making better use of existing capacity targeted infrastructure improvements. Deivery of the interventions set out in the STPR wi be in accordance with this hierarchy and subject to funds becoming avaiabe through spending review processes. The STPR documents can be found at East Coast Main Line RUS The East Coast Main Line RUS was pubished in February The RUS defined the rai industry s strategy for the route. This enabed the Government and the ORR to make timey and we informed decisions on the efficient use of the network and identify opportunities to improve capacity and reiabiity. The East Coast Main Line (ECML) is one of the busiest raiway ines in Britain. As we as being a vita north to south artery for ong distance traffic from London to Scotand via Yorkshire and the North East, the ine serves many commuter and regiona passenger markets and carries significant amounts of rai freight. The East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review was estabished in February The review can be found at West Coast Main Line RUS The West Coast Main Line Strategy was originay pubished by the Strategic Rai Authority (SRA) in 2003 and set out to provide increased capacity for ong distance passenger and freight services. Other visibe outputs incuded preserving and where possibe increasing and improving the provision for peak commuter services, other inter-regiona inks and acceerated city centre to city centre journey times. The WCML is Europe s ongest, busiest mixed traffic raiway and the strategy was deveoped to meet foreseeabe and anticipated requirements for the future. In December 2010 Network Rai pubished the West Coast Main Line RUS Draft for Consutation which supersedes the SRA strategy. Reevant recommendations affecting the Scotand RUS (Generation Two) have been incuded in this document The Freight RUS and Strategic Freight Network The Freight RUS was estabished in 2007 and reviewed the requirements for ong distance freight within Great Britain. Subsequenty the United Kingdom Government estabished the SFN as part of their CP4 HLOS. It is intended to optimise the freight performance of the intensivey utiised mixed traffic rai network, aowing the efficient operation of more, onger, and seectivey arger freight trains. The Freight RUS deveoped ong-term forecasts for freight traffic over the network which was adopted within the SFN. As far as Scotand is concerned both the Freight RUS and SFN focused on Ango Scottish fows Network RUS: Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts The Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts RUS considered ong distance passenger and freight demand over 30 years. The RUS provides four scenarios for demand and a 30-year view of ong distance demand to and from Scotand Network RUS: Eectrification Strategy The Eectrification RUS considered eectrification on a network basis focusing on the benefits associated with reducing the ongoing cost to the country of the raiway and improving its environmenta performance. In Scotand it mirrored the STPR recommendations to eectrify much of the interurban and suburban network (not aready eectrified) in a series of discrete phases over the next 25 years Network RUS: Stations The Network RUS: Stations pubished as a Draft for Consutation in May 2011 sets out the vision for the 2,500 stations on the nationa rai network. The aim is to fuy aign the stations strategy with the overa rai industry strategy, recognising the important part stations have to pay in deivering passengers evoving needs Network RUS: Passenger Roing Stock The Network RUS: Roing Stock pubished as a Draft for Consutation in May 2011 ooks at the whoe industry ife cost of roing stock types by market segment and examines the trade-offs between the various types of roing stock and any infrastructure enhancement required to enabe those vehices to operate Network RUS: Passenger Roing Depots Panning Guidance The Network RUS: Passenger Roing Stock Depots Panning Guidance document to be pubished in Juy 2011 focusses on identifying bext practice guidance for depot panning. 17

18 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery 3.1 Introduction In this chapter, the present day function and capabiity of the rai network in the Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) area is described. Profies are provided of passenger and freight operators, as we as information about current demand patterns and crowding, present infrastructure, how the raiway performs, and how it is maintained. 3.2 Current train operators At present, five franchised passenger train operators run services over the ines covered by the RUS. These are: ScotRai The current ScotRai Franchise was awarded to First Group in 2004 for a period of seven years to October 2011, with the possibiity of extension. In Apri 2008 the Scottish Government awarded First Group a three-year extension to the franchise in recognition of the achievements of the franchisee in reation to performance and improvements. As part of the extension agreement, more than 70 miion is being reinvested through a number of new rai initiatives and projects across Scotand incuding a stations community regeneration fund East Coast East Coast is a trading name of East Coast Main Line Company Ltd., a subsidiary of Directy Operated Raiways Limited, which was formed by the Secretary of State for Transport when the Nationa Express East Coast franchise was terminated. East Coast operates high speed, ong distance passenger services principay from London King s Cross to centra Scotand, Inverness and Aberdeen via York and the East Coast Main Line (ECML), and from King s Cross to Leeds and Newcaste. The ECML timetabe was amended from May 2011 to operate to a more reguar stopping pattern with reduced journey times and the number of through trains from Gasgow Centra London King s Cross via Edinburgh Waverey was reduced Virgin Trains Virgin Trains operates an eectric service from London Euston Gasgow Centra and a argey diese service from Birmingham New Street to Gasgow Centra and Edinburgh Waverey via the West Coast Main Line (WCML). Virgin Trains aso operates services from London Euston the West Midands, Northern Engand and Waes. The current Virgin Trains franchise runs unti CrossCountry CrossCountry is operated by Arriva. The current cross country franchise was formed through the amagamation of most of the former cross country franchise hed by Virgin Trains with some of the onger distance routes operated by Midandsbased Centra Trains and runs from 2007 unti The company operates a number of key ong distance interurban routes outside London incuding the cross country route from Scotand with services starting from Aberdeen, Dundee, Gasgow Centra and Edinburgh to the South West via the ECML. It aso operates a range of shorter distance regiona expresses mainy in the Midands of Engand. A more reguar service from Gasgow Centra to the South West of Engand via Edinburgh Waverey, York and Birmingham was introduced in May

19 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June First TransPennine Express First TransPennine Express (FTPE) is a joint operation between First Group and Keois. The franchise commenced in 2004 and wi run unti 2012 with an optiona extension to It operates reguar services in the north of Engand incuding services inking the west and east coasts across the Pennines. Since 2007 FTPE has provided a service between Manchester Airport and Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Centra via the WCML. 3.3 Current freight operators At present, four freight operators run services over the ines covered by this RUS. These are: DB Schenker DB Schenker operates buk, intermoda, Roya Mai, wagonoad traffic and charter trains to most parts of Scotand Freightiner Freightiner operates in Scotand under two subsidiaries. Freightiner Limited operates intermoda traffic from Coatbridge to various destinations in Engand, whie Freightiner Heavy Hau operates a number of buk fows incuding power station coa and cement traffic GB Raifreight Limited GB Raifreight Limited operates charter trains and a number of buk fows incuding aumina traffic, power station coa and mud oi Direct Rai Services Limited Direct Rai Services Limited operates intermoda services from Grangemouth and Coatbridge to Daventry, Inverness, Aberdeen and Edersie. 3.4 Other operators (non franchised) Currenty ony one other company operates schedued services over Scotand s rai infrastructure West Coast Raiway Company West Coast Raiway Company is a icensed Train Operating Company (TOC) operating the Jacobite service, a steam service between Fort Wiiam and Maaig during the summer. It aso operates a number of charter trains incuding the Roya Scotsman and cruise train. 3.5 Current passenger market profie Overa market The area covered by this RUS has a popuation of just over five miion, of which the majority is custered in the Centra Bet around Gasgow and Edinburgh. Outside of the Centra Bet the popuation becomes more sparse athough there are arger popuation custers around Aberdeen, Dundee, Perth and Inverness. The rai network provides important inks both between the popuation centres and within them. The reative importance of rai has been increasing; rai passenger journeys made to, from and within the RUS area increased from 57 miion in 2000/1 to approximatey 79 miion in 2009/10, equating to an average growth rate of 3.7 per cent per annum. The growth in rai journeys is shown in Figure 3.1. The recession affected passenger demand with growth stagnating in 2009/10. The emerging picture from 2010/11 is that growth has returned to the passenger market. Figure 3.1 growth in rai journeys in and to/from the RUS area 80 Demand (miion journeys) / / / / / / / / / /10 Year Source: LENNON ticket saes and Zonecard saes (pre 2004/05 Zonecard saes estimated). 19

20 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery Passenger markets Within the Scotand RUS area, the rai passenger markets are defined as: Gasgow conurbation, Edinburgh conurbation, interurban, rura, and Ango Scottish. These markets integrate at varying ocations throughout the network. The markets are defined as foows: the Gasgow conurbation market covers rai journeys that start and end at stations in the greater Gasgow area incuding Ayr, Carstairs, Kimarnock, Drumgeoch, Heensburgh, Cumbernaud, Croy and Shotts. These services are provided by ScotRai. Some connectivity between Motherwe and Gasgow Centra is provided by other operators. the Edinburgh conurbation market incudes the journeys that start and end within the Edinburgh area. This is taken as a stations to/from Fakirk Grahamston, North Berwick, Cadercruix and Shotts. These services are a provided by ScotRai. the interurban market incudes journeys between the conurbations and major cities and towns in Scotand. This refects the areas that are served by the interurban express services and commuter services to the regiona centres. The majority of services are operated by ScotRai, with CrossCountry and East Coast providing some services north of Edinburgh to Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness and between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Centra via Carstairs. FTPE provides services between Edinburgh Waverey, Gasgow Centra and Lockerbie. the rura market incudes rai journeys that start or end at stations on the rura ines. This incudes the Far North, Kye of Lochash, West Highand to Oban, Fort Wiiam and Maaig, Stranraer and Gasgow and South Western ines (G&SW). Services on the routes are provided entirey by ScotRai with the exception of the seasona Jacobite service between Fort Wiiam and Maaig. the Ango Scottish market comprises journeys between Engand and Scotand on the ECML and WCML. East Coast and CrossCountry provide the majority of the ECML services and Virgin Trains and FTPE provide the majority of West Coast services. ScotRai provides connectivity between Dumfries and Carise (and onwards to Newcaste) and aso the Caedonian Seeper services from Inverness, Aberdeen, Fort Wiiam, Gasgow Centra and Edinburgh Waverey to London Demand by market The Gasgow conurbation market is the most significant Scottish market in terms of the numbers of journeys. Around 59 per cent of a rai trips in the Scotand RUS area are between stations within the Gasgow area. The next argest market is interurban, as shown in Figure 3.2. In terms of passenger mies the reativey onger distance Ango Scottish and interurban market dominate. The growth in passenger demand has varied by market refecting different trends. The fastest growing was the interurban market, as shown in Figure 3.3. The growth is driven by an increase in traffic between Edinburgh and Gasgow and an increase in fows to the regiona centres of Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness and Stiring. Figure 3.2 percentage of tota passenger journeys by market Rura 2% Ango Scottish 8% Interurban 24% Gasgow 59% Edinburgh 7% Source: LENNON ticket saes and Zonecard saes. 20

21 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Interurban Edinburgh Rura Gasgow Ango Scottish Figure 3.3 growth by market 2000/ /10 Passenger journeys (indexed 2000 = 100) / / / / / / / / / /10 Year Source: LENNON ticket saes and Zonecard saes (pre 2004/05 Zonecard saes estimated) Gasgow conurbation Gasgow is the argest popuation and empoyment centre in Scotand and it has the densest rai network. Demand for trave is concentrated in the morning and evening peaks, and demand can exceed avaiabe seating on some services. The eve of crowding varies by corridor, refecting the service provision and the demographics. Crowding, where the passenger to seat ratio exceeds 100 per cent, can occur on certain trains on most corridors into Gasgow during the morning peak. Figure 3.4 shows the passenger to seat ratio over the three-hour peak (07:00 10:00) for trains arriving at centra Gasgow termini, suggesting that over the three-hour period adequate capacity is provided. Figure 3.5 shows that during the high peak (08:00 09:00) on some corridors the passengers to seats ratio exceeds 100 per cent. The Paisey Corridor and the westbound Argye ine trains from Lanarkshire have the highest eves of crowding. The tota passenger to seat ratio may concea a degree of crowding on some of the services. Typicay, where the oad factor in the high-peak exceeds 70 per cent crowding may occur on some services. On most ines the crowding is for a reativey short period of ess than 10 minutes, athough on some services the time where passengers stand exceeds 10 minutes. Scottish Ministers current requirement is for ScotRai to take action to provide additiona capacity where practica when train oadings are such that passengers have to stand for more than 10 minutes. For additiona information on these requirements, refer to the Franchise Agreement avaiabe on the Transport Scotand website Edinburgh conurbation Whie Edinburgh is the second argest city in Scotand, the Edinburgh conurbation rai market is ess deveoped than Gasgow. Edinburgh has seen significant investment, with the introduction of the Edinburgh Crossrai services and the construction of the Airdrie to Bathgate ine. Nevertheess the majority of passengers arrive from outside the immediate suburban area. The argest demand is from Fife, Linithgow and Stiring. Simiar to Gasgow, Edinburgh rai demand is strongest in the peak period. This can cause crowding on services as they approach/depart centra Edinburgh. The morning peak oad factor of passengers to seats by corridor is shown in Figures 3.6 and 3.7. The figures show that the highest oad factors are from Inverkeithing to Edinburgh on Fife services and on services from Gasgow and Stiring. Even though the oad factor does not exceed 100 per cent over the peak hour, crowding does occur on some services. There is aso some crowding from Musseburgh on the North Berwick and Shotts ine trains. At the time of the ast passenger counts the Bathgate ine (before the through service to Airdrie/Gasgow was introduced) there was some crowding but the introduction of four six-car trains per hour is expected to address this. 21

22 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK Source: ScotRai counts does not incude ong distance operators. 22

23 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK Source: ScotRai counts does not incude ong distance operators. 23

24 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR Source: ScotRai, East Coast and CrossCountry counts. 24

25 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR Source: ScotRai, East Coast and CrossCountry counts. 25

26 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery Interurban The interurban market provides inks between the major centres within Scotand. Typicay interurban journeys for business or eisure tend to be ess focused on peak period arrivas and experience a more even a day demand. Even so, the morning peak arrivas at major centres can often experience oad factors in excess of 100 per cent as they serve both interurban and oca commuter markets. This occurs on the approach to both Gasgow and Edinburgh. The interurban market aso incudes the oca commuter services into the regiona centres. Aberdeen is the argest city outside of Gasgow and Edinburgh. Between 2005/6 and 2009/10 demand for rai trave has grown at 6.1 per cent per year. Much of this demand increase has been driven by strong demand for shorter distance trave with demand between Aberdeen and Dyce and Inverurie growing rapidy, resuting in crowding on some peak services. Dundee and Inverness have aso had growth in rai demand abeit at a ower rate than Aberdeen Rura On the rura ines hoiday traffic is a significant eement of the overa rai passenger market. Tourism produces seasona variations in rai demand, with the summer period having the highest demand. The degree of seasonaity is measured as the percentage difference between summer per period ticket saes and winter per period ticket saes. Tabe 3.8 shows summer demand is consideraby higher at some rura stations. On this basis Fort Wiiam and Kye of Lochash summer per period demand is more than twice winter demand. The seasonaity is refected in the eve of service provision on the ines which imit their use for commuter purposes on account of journey times and service frequency. The routes with ower seasonaity are those where service frequency is highest such as the routes south of Dumfries and between Dingwa and Inverness. On these routes the rai service offered aows the use of the network for other purposes, such as commuting Ango Scottish a day capacity The Ango Scottish market incudes the ong distance services operating over the East and West Coast Main Lines. The busiest fows are shown in Tabe 3.9. For the ong distance fows between Scotand and Engand and Waes, rai competes with air as we as road. Since 2003 rai s moda share compared to air increased especiay between London and Scotand. Ango Scottish services typicay have a simiar demand pattern to interurban services, with higher demand at the start and end of the day, and at weekends. Anaysis undertaken for the West Coast Main Line RUS Draft for Consutation, pubished in December 2010, suggests that adequate capacity is provided over the day between Scotand and Engand. Some services in peak trave times of day and year experience high oads where occasiona standing may occur. Tabe 3.8 seasonaity of demand at rura stations Station Percentage that summer per period demand is higher than winter demand Thurso 23% Kye of Lochash 163% Dingwa 31% Fort Wiiam 117% Oban 58% Stranraer 25% Dumfries 4% Source: LENNON ticket saes 26

27 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Tabe 3.9 top 5 busiest Ango Scottish fows 2009/10 Fow Number of journeys 2009/10 Growth 2004/ /10 London Edinburgh 753,000 36% London Gasgow 447, % Edinburgh Newcaste 434,000 27% Edinburgh York 182,000 19% Newcaste Gasgow 149,000 10% Source: LENNON ticket saes 3.6 Current freight market profie Overview Within the UK, rai freight s market share grew from 7.6 per cent in 1998 to 8.6 per cent of tota freight tonne kiometres (weight of freight mutipied by distance carried) in Coa Coa is the dominant product in terms of voume being approximatey 70 per cent of the traffic moved within Scotand. A arge proportion is transported from the port of Hunterston and Scotand s opencast sites to Longannet power station. There are aso significant fows to Cockenzie and Engish power stations. A combination of gas price changes, a reduction in tota generation and high coa stock eves has had a significant impact on the movement of coa by rai from Scotand. Coa voume has reduced substantiay from a peak in Significanty, Scottish Power has agreed with Scottish Coa to provide indigenous coa to Longannet and Cockenzie power stations (a Scottish Coa product moved on rai was previousy destined for Engish power station contracts) which has resuted in deiveries from Scottish Coa rai heads (e.g. Ravenstruther, Kioch and Chamerston) and a sight reduction in the imported voume from the port of Hunterston Intermoda Movement of containerised produce comprises approximatey 20 per cent of the tota freight market in the RUS area. Voumes have grown during the recession, with much of the associated traffic growth being in the fast moving consumer goods sector from distribution centres. This traffic is highy time sensitive and success depends on high performing and cost effective services with, usuay, eary morning arrivas at the Scottish destination. The major intermoda ocations in Scotand are Coatbridge, Mossend and Grangemouth with smaer faciities at Inverness, Aberdeen, Edersie and Deanside (Gasgow) Other buk In Scotand, cement is distributed by rai from Oxwemains (near Dunbar) to Uddingston, Inverness, Aberdeen and Seaham (in Engand). Cement traffic was affected by the recession, but is beginning to recover. As cement is perishabe with a imited shef ife this is a Just-in-Time product. Metas traffic in various forms (bars, pate, pipes, scrap) moves by rai between Daze and Lackenby in Teeside, between the Centra Bet and Liverpoo/Cardiff and to Laurencekirk and Aberdeen Raiths Farm. There is a considerabe voume of fue oi product which originates at Grangemouth refinery and is deivered by rai to Daston (Cumbria), Prestwick Airport, Riccarton (near Kimarnock), Linkswood (Fife), Fort Wiiam and Lairg Other freight products Other products moved to and from Scottish rai heads incude Roya Mai (to and from Shiedmuir), Aumina (from North Byth to Fort Wiiam), chemicas incuding cacium carbonate to Irvine paper mi and Dary, china cay and imestone (used in the production of paper), mud oi for the driing industry and househod/commercia waste. 27

28 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery 3.7 Scotand rai network Infrastructure characteristics on the route are varied, refecting historic service demands and deveopment. This has resuted in different eves of current route capabiity as described beow. The route was fuy baseined for the origina RUS (estabished May 2007). The RUS has identified where there have been significant changes since then that woud affect the utiisation of the route. Where there have been no significant changes the origina baseining information is sti current. The foowing section reviews each strategic route against the foowing criteria: infrastructure capacity utiisation performance depots Infrastructure capacity Generay, the capacity of the route has not changed since 2007, with the exception of the commissioning of the foowing major schemes: the opening of the Stiring to Aoa/Kincardine route in 2008 providing passenger trains from Aoa to Gasgow/Edinburgh and coa services to Longannet power station from Hunterston and Ravenstruther the Edinburgh Waverey enhancement works providing additiona capacity in the station the Gasgow/Kimarnock upgrade which invoved extending Lugton oop to provide capacity for two trains per hour between Gasgow and Kimarnock the opening of the new route between Drumgeoch and Bathgate together with the doubing of the ine between Bathgate and Newbridge Jn and between Airdrie and Drumgeoch. The Scotand route carries mixed traffic, with a significant range of speed, acceeration and stopping patterns of trains. On many corridors, this invoves a compex mix of freight, suburban, and interurban services with speeds up to 100mph. There is itte traffic segregation on the main corridors. As the route is predominanty two track with significant sections of singe track, this eads to high eves of utiisation imposing constraints on the timetabe Utiisation Utiisation on many routes is simiar to On those routes where there have been significant changes (e.g. Hoytown to Midcader) this RUS has reviewed the current utiisation and identified any gaps. Where appropriate options to address these gaps have been considered and are described in Chapter 6 (Gaps and options). The pubished 2010 Route Pans identified the foowing capacity constraints: the congested approaches to Gasgow Centra High Leve station, particuary the Muirhouse Jn to Bridge Street Jn section the congested section between Finnieston and Hyndand the congested section between Paisey Gimour St and Gasgow Centra High Leve restrictive patform engths at a number of stations, most significanty at Gasgow Centra High Leve, Gasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverey key singe ead junctions at Westerton, Begrove, Newton, Busby, Winchburgh, Midcader and Portobeo ack of stabing capacity at Edinburgh, Perth, Motherwe and Ayr Townhead (the competion of the recent works at Perth and Ayr has eased the constraint but in the ong term stabing remains an issue at various ocations across Scotand) restricted capacity between Perth and Aberdeen and on the North and West Highand Routes due to ong singe ine sections restrictive signaing headways across the Forth and Tay Bridges, around Stiring and between Haymarket and Carstairs. In addition to the above, key constraints for freight services are: the capacity of Foudubs Jn and access to terminas around Grangemouth restrictive oading gauge and route avaiabiity at various ocations particuary on the Edinburgh Suburban and Shotts ines ack of passing oops of adequate size to accommodate current maximum train engths. This is particuary acute between Mossend and Stiring, between Dundee and Aberdeen and on the West Highand Route the singe ine sections between Mauchine Newton-on-Ayr, Dunked Pitochry, Dawhinnie Kingussie, Keith Egin and Montrose Usan a ack of ong ooping capabiity at Mossend bridges with gauging restrictions. These wi be reviewed when renewas are due to take pace. This RUS has considered these where the demand forecast indicated these constraints woud be a restriction on future growth. 28

29 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Performance Performance across Scotand has improved significanty over the ast five-years with a circa 35 per cent reduction in deay minutes eading to an improvement in ScotRai s Pubic Performance Measure (PPM) from 83.1 per cent to a moving annua average of over 90 per cent today as shown in Figure To achieve this, the focus has been on attention to detai particuary the reiabiity of strategic points and signaing equipment at key nodes as we as improvements to the Rues of the Pan in areas where timetabe robustness was identified as being weak. As with many other parts of the country, issues affecting performance on the rai network in the RUS area are compex, given its diversity of routes and the wide range of services operating over it, with a number of services originating from paces we outside the RUS area. It is cear that major factors are the mix of services with varying speed and stopping patterns and the arge number of compex junctions and crossings, neary a on the eve, with conficting train movements Depots Tabe 3.11 shows the number of vehices currenty stabed at each ocation in the RUS area together with the capacity of that ocation. The tabe does not show other station ocations where stabing can occur, but which are ony used during perturbed working. Since May 2007 additiona capacity has been provided at Shieds Depot and Ayr Townhead depots, together with the construction of a new stabing faciity at Bathgate as part of the Airdrie to Bathgate project. Work has aso been competed recenty to improve the faciities at Perth. The Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) incudes pans to increase stabing for the additiona units required for that programme. 3.8 Current engineering access strategy There is significant demand for rai trave in Scotand seven days a week. For a number of years, the industry has offered a service that is ikey to be significanty degraded and disrupted at weekends to enabe maintenance and renewas activity to take pace. As part of the Deivery Pan for Contro Period 4 (CP4), Network Rai has committed to working with train operators to improve the service at weekends by reducing the periods of disruption and increasing the avaiabiity of access to operate train services. This requires a change of approach to undertake major renewas in shorter periods and to better focus maintenance activities. Engineering access in Scotand can argey be accommodated overnight with most ines having periods with no trains. There are, however, exceptions incuding: Edinburgh Waverey to Haymarket, Haymarket to Carstairs and Gasgow Centra to Carstairs where the mix of services imits access except at weekends. Agreement has aso been reached for the major freight fows from Hunterston to Longannet and from Ayrshire to Carise and beyond to operate on a 24-hour basis with access for maintenance on a cycica basis. In this RUS other gaps identified incude the abiity to run earier and ater services on certain routes and to operate more freight services to Inverness overnight. These are considered further in Chapter 6. Figure 3.10 performance improvement in Scotand 100% 95% % of trains 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 2005/ / / / / /11 PPM PPM Moving Annua Average Year 29

30 3. Current capacity, demand, and deivery Tabe 3.11 depot capacity Location Vehices stabed Vehice capacity Percentage Number within capacity of ocation Number near to capacity of ocation Number at or in excess of capacity of ocation Aberdeen station Airdrie Ayr Townhead depot Ayr station Bathgate Corkerhi Dumfries Yard Dundee Eastfied Edinburgh Waverey Fort Wiiam Gasgow Queen St Gasgow Centra Gourock station Heensburgh Haymarket depot Inverness Kye of Lochash Maaig Motherwe Oban Perth Shieds depot Stiring Stranraer Wick Yoker Pomadie Craigentinny Aberdeen Cayhis Tota Pease note that information represents the panned use at each ocation. Other unpanned stabing may occur at a ocations where capacity permits. 30

31 4. Committed schemes 4.1 Introduction This chapter identifies panned changes to the suppy of rai services over the period of the Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS). Committed changes are incuded within the RUS baseine if funding has been made avaiabe for them. This approach was appied to the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) identified schemes. Whie a number of schemes were ong-term aspirations, as they were unfunded, the RUS did not consider them in the baseine. These have been considered wherever they affect the RUS proposas. 4.2 Roing stock cascade ScotRai procured 38 Cass 380 eectric trains which were deivered in 2010/11 configured in three and four-car sets. These are being used on Ayrshire and Invercyde services to provide additiona seating capacity as we as on Gasgow/Edinburgh/North Berwick services from 2011/12. This has triggered a cascade of roing stock as shown in Tabe Paisey Corridor Improvements (formery Gasgow Airport Rai Link) The Scottish Government announced in September 2009 that the Gasgow Airport Rai Link (GARL) branch ine works to Gasgow Airport woud not proceed. This project comprises significant capacity enhancements on the existing network between Paisey and Shieds Jn; in addition two new patforms at Gasgow Centra High Leve and an extension of the oop at Edersie were deivered as advanced works in Timetabe deveopment work for the project is ongoing, but is expected to increase the passenger capacity on the Paisey Corridor providing crowding reief on competion in Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme The Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) (incuding eectrification of the main Edinburgh Waverey Gasgow Queen Street corridor via Fakirk High and the routes to Cumbernaud, Grangemouth, Stiring, Dunbane and Aoa) wi deiver a step change in capacity and journey times between Edinburgh and Gasgow by When compete the package of works wi deiver an increase from the current eve of service to 13 trains per hour over a routes between the two cities and cut the current 48 minute fastest journey time to 37 minutes. Journey times wi aso be reduced from Stiring and Aoa to Gasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverey. EGIP wi provide a significant increase in peak passenger capacity of approximatey 50 per cent on the Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street ine. Eectric roing stock wi be introduced which offers faster acceeration and is more environmentay friendy. Scottish Ministers decided in 2007 not to proceed with the Edinburgh Airport Rai Link. To provide an aternative ink to the airport a new station is panned, provisionay entited Edinburgh Gateway where the Edinburgh/Dameny ine interfaces with the Edinburgh tram ine currenty under construction. 31

32 4. Committed schemes 4.5 Borders Raiway The Borders Raiway is schedued for competion in This wi permit new services from Edinburgh Waverey to Tweedbank serving seven new intermediate stations. The Borders Raiway wi be designed, buit and maintained by a specia purpose company with services operated by the ScotRai franchise. 4.6 Tier 3 Project Deveopment Fund As part of the Contro Period 4 (CP4) Deivery Pan, Network Rai is funded to deveop a number of projects on behaf of Transport Scotand for potentia impementation in Contro Period 5 (CP5). This is known as the Tier 3 Project Deveopment Fund. These projects currenty incude upgrades to routes from Inverness Aberdeen and Perth. As far as the RUS is concerned ony the deveopment is treated as committed. Options to cose identified gaps are considered in Chapter 6. Further detais of the status of individua Tier 3 schemes can be found in Appendix B. 4.7 Update on origina RUS recommendations The current status of the recommendations from the origina Scotand RUS estabished in 2007 (status as at May 2011) is shown in Appendix A. Tabe 4.1 Roing stock cascade Route Current stock New stock 1 Ayrshire 334/ Invercyde 334/318/ /380 3 North Berwick Argye Line 318/ /320/334 5 North Eectrics 320/318/334 See 7 beow 6 Bathgate/Edinburgh 158/170 See 7 beow 7 Edinburgh/Gasgow via Airdrie/Bathgate (incuding North Eectrics) See 5/6 above 320/334 8 Cathcart/Newton/Neiston /380 32

33 5. Future demand 5.1 Introduction This chapter considers the changes in passenger and freight demand within the Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) area forecast unti The chapter aso incudes anaysis of the forecast oading eves in 2019 in order to identify where capacity gaps are ikey to occur. 5.2 Forecasting approach Demand has grown faster than predicted in the first Scotand RUS in Whie the forecasts are a ong-term projection, there is a need to pan for the eventuaity that the above trend growth coud continue over the RUS period. Scottish Ministers have aso announced interventions which ater forecast growth. Conversey the Scottish economy after a period of sustained expansion contracted for five quarters between the third quarter 2008 and the fourth quarter Likewise the empoyment rate has faen from its peak in Despite this rai passenger demand ony contracted marginay in 2009/10. Given this uncertainty and the economic conditions the RUS approached forecasting by deveoping two scenarios for growth in rai passenger demand. The advantage of the scenario approach is that it does not contain a preconception about which scenario is the most ikey outcome. Instead the scenario approach shows what is ikey to happen in different circumstances. This enabes the testing of options against different growth scenarios. The first scenario was deveoped to refect a steady state where the forecast growth in rai passenger demand seen over the past 10 years does not continue and rai growth returns to a eve predicted by standard forecasting. The steady state scenario was produced using the Transport Mode for Scotand (TMfS) a muti-moda mode deveoped by Transport Scotand. The methodoogy estimates the trave demand changes driven by and use and service provision across a transport modes. The second scenario, one of continuing rai competitiveness refects a different course of events, where strong rai growth continues into the future. This scenario was produced by using historica data to estabish the extent to which the forecasting methodoogy woud have under predicted passenger growth and projecting this forward above the forecast growth rate. The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) was used for the second scenario forecast as the TMfS does not have adequate information for an historica examination. The PDFH is an industry standard framework for modeing growth, using demand drivers, such as UK demographics, economic growth, and the characteristics of competing modes to predict the change in passenger demand. An extensive vaidation exercise was undertaken to assess how we the PDFH woud have expained historic growth in the RUS markets. The anaysis showed that for the Ango Scottish market the PDFH proved itsef accurate in forecasting the rate of growth. In the other markets the PDFH under predicted the growth in demand from 2000/1 to 2008/9. The variance was then appied to upift the forecast for 10 years to refect the ength of the historica anaysis and a scenario where rai continues to be a reativey competitive mode. The Ango Scottish forecast needed to be treated differenty in the forecasting approach. The TMfS is not caibrated to the ong distance demand. Therefore, a steady state scenario growth coud not be deveoped from the approach detaied above. The estabished Network RUS: Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts provides a series of forecasts for ong distance demand growth. Likewise the West Coast Main Line RUS pubished as a Draft for Consutation in December 2010 and the estabished East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review have examined the changes in demand on these routes in greater detai. 33

34 5. Future demand 5.3 Committed service improvements The significance of panned investment in the raiway network, as shown in Chapter 4, means that it is necessary to incude this in the forecast. Schemes where the fu impact of the changes in demand were not expected to be represented in the 2008/9 passengers numbers were aso incuded. The scenarios contain, as do-minimum options: The 2008/9 timetabe changes houry Edinburgh Waverey Perth service faster Edinburgh Waverey Aberdeen services houry Edinburgh Waverey Dundee service Fife recast incuding additiona shouder-peak services West Coast Main Line December 2008 timetabe changes on Ango Scottish services. Gasgow Kimarnock upgrade (two trains per hour introduced 2009/10 timetabe) Airdrie Bathgate (2010/11 timetabe) Borders Raiway (due to open in 2014) Contro Period 4 (CP4) performance improvements Edinburgh and Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP). Where appropriate these schemes were incuded within each forecast. 5.4 Forecast demand Gasgow conurbation network Forecast changes in Gasgow conurbation network demand The number of a day rai journeys in the Gasgow conurbation market is forecast to increase by 24 per cent from 2008/9 to 2024/25 under the first scenario, or annua growth of 1.3 per cent. The mode indicates that peak journeys wi grow by 27 per cent over the same period. Under the second scenario growth is forecast to be higher at 38 per cent for a day trave, which is 2.0 per cent per annum and 36 per cent or 1.9 per cent per annum for peak trave. These forecasts are unconstrained by on train crowding which is the standard approach across RUSs Gasgow oad anaysis 2019 The impact on peak crowding of the expected growth to 2019 is shown in Figures 5.1 and 5.2 for the three-hour peak hour and Figure 5.3 and 5.4 for the high-peak (08:00 to 09:00). On the Paisey corridor the depoyment of the Cass 380 roing stock and the Paisey Corridor Improvements Project (PCI) provide additiona capacity meaning that in the high-peak hour crowding wi be simiar to that experienced at present. The oad factors on the Argye ine services from Lanarkshire wi continue to increase despite the introduction of the higher capacity roing stock. Load factors above 100 per cent are experienced from around Newton inwards. The significant investment in new roing stock and infrastructure required to deiver the new timetabe on the Airdrie Bathgate route provides improved connectivity for passengers on the North Eectric services. Whist some services wi experience oad factors greater than 100 per cent, the majority of the crowding woud be for ess than 10 minutes. The Cumbernaud ine wi see the depoyment of three-car eectric roing stock which wi increase capacity but as seen in Figure 5.3 and 5.4 the high-peak oad factor is predicted to be over 100 per cent from Gartcosh. Over the threehour peak the average oad factor remains ow. The imited frequency two trains per hour (tph) means that peak spreading is not ikey to occur requiring the existing high-peak strengthening to be maintained. By 2019 there wi be some services operating from Kimarnock with oad factors over 100 per cent. The crowding wi be focussed on the high-peak fast services from Barrhead. By 2019 the increase in demand for the Whiffet service wi mean that standing wi be more common on high-peak services over reativey short distances athough over the three-hour peak oad factors are not high. The imited frequency of two tph means that peak spreading is not ikey to occur and options need to be considered unti three-car trains are introduced foowing eectrification of the route ikey to be in Contro Period 5 (CP5) or Contro Period 6 (CP6) (see Chapter 6). On the services operating on the suburban ines through Muirhouse Jn the growth is abe to be accommodated with the current eve of service. It is anticipated that the high-peak service frequency wi mean that peak spreading is possibe between services. 34

35 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini scenario 1. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WHIFFLET WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK 35

36 5. Future demand Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini scenario 2. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WHIFFLET WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK 36

37 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini scenario 1. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WHIFFLET WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK 37

38 5. Future demand Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at centra Gasgow termini scenario 2. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% HELENSBURGH UPPER MILNGAVIE HELENSBURGH CENTRAL BALLOCH DUMBARTON CENTRAL GOUROCK WEMYSS BAY PAISLEY GILMOUR STREET LARGS PAISLEY CANAL KILWINNING ARDROSSAN HARBOUR BARRHEAD TROON PRESTWICK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KILMARNOCK NEILSTON AYR ANNIESLAND PARTICK GLASGOW QUEEN STREET GLASGOW CENTRAL SPRINGBURN CATHCART EAST KILBRIDE NEWTON CROY STIRLING FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON FALKIRK HIGH EDINBURGH WAVERLEY CUMBERNAULD AIRDRIE DRUMGELLOCH WHIFFLET WEST CALDER SHOTTS MOTHERWELL HAMILTON CENTRAL CARSTAIRS LARKHALL LANARK 38

39 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Forecast demand Edinburgh conurbation Forecast changes in Edinburgh conurbation demand The number of a day rai journeys in the Edinburgh conurbation market is forecast to increase by 90 and 118 per cent under the two scenarios by This is equivaent to annua growth rates of 4.1 and 5.0 per cent per annum unti In the peak hours demand is due to increase by 84 per cent and 115 per cent by The very high growth rate is argey as a resut of the impact of the major competed and committed schemes such as Airdrie to Bathgate, EGIP and Borders, which wi increase the fows from the Linithgow, Bathgate and Borders corridors. It is not prudent to appy the growth rates that capture the induced growth rates on corridors that are not affected by the committed schemes. Therefore corridor-specific growth rates were used for gap identification and option appraisa where appicabe Edinburgh oad anaysis 2019 The impact of the forecast growth and committed schemes on peak crowding on the three-hour peak is shown in Figures 5.5 and 5.6 and for the high-peak in Figure 5.7 and 5.8. On the Fife trains where there is no panned additiona capacity train crowding is forecast to increase. Standing from Inverkeithing and potentiay extending further back is forecast to occur in the high-peak. Some shouderpeak services into Edinburgh from Fife may aso experience crowding. The depoyment of additiona capacity means that trains from Gasgow Queen Street via Fakirk High wi see a reduction in crowding. On the Stiring corridor under the higher growth scenario standing may occur in the shouder-peaks, as it has been assumed ony three-car trains wi operate. The possibe post EGIP aocation of roing stock may address this. The North Berwick ine wi receive four-car Cass 380s which increases the capacity. Nevertheess under the high-peak scenario some trains operating from North Berwick wi experience crowding. On the Shotts ine the standing is forecast to increase. The impact of additiona services on the Bathgate ine may reduce this crowding as some passengers may transfer to this route which is served by a greater number of services. The ow tota oad factor on the service via Carstairs is in part due to the four-car eectric trains that provide a significant amount of capacity reative to demand. The increase to four tph from Bathgate inwards is forecast to meet demand over the three-hour peak with the possibiity of standing on some high-peak arrivas. Load factors for the Borders Raiway have not been forecast, as they are contingent on the roing stock and timetabe to be deivered. The anaysis shows that trains from Brunstane and Newcraigha wi continue to provide sufficient capacity. 5.6 Forecast demand interurban Forecast changes in interurban demand The number of a day rai journeys in the interurban market is forecast to increase by 48 per cent and 74 per cent under the two scenarios by This is equivaent to annua growth rates of 2.5 and 3.5 per cent per annum. The interurban market covers a range of corridors that, as with Edinburgh, are heaviy infuenced by committed schemes. Journeys between Edinburgh, Gasgow and Stiring wi increase as a resut of the improved service deivered by EGIP. The impication is that it is necessary to use more ocaised forecasts for option appraisa Interurban oad anaysis 2019 The changes in oadings on the Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street ine and on services to and from Stiring are shown in the Gasgow and Edinburgh figures (Figures 5.1 to 5.8). They show that capacity is generay adequate across the peak though crowding becomes more acute on the services from Stiring in the future. The forecast oads on the Airdrie Bathgate services are aso captured in these figures. Crowding is forecast to become more prevaent by 2019 for services operating into and out of Aberdeen. Figure 5.9 shows the forecast train oading to and from Aberdeen in the morning peak. High oad factors do not generay extend beyond Stonehaven and Inverurie. One evening peak service from Aberdeen wi have standing that extends beyond Inverurie. For Inverness and Dundee, capacity is expected to be adequate. The forecast oadings on the Aberdeen Edinburgh Waverey /Gasgow Queen Street services were aso anaysed. Whie there is generay adequate capacity across the day, some trains are forecast to experience crowding on approach to the major centres during the peaks where they provide oca commuting demand as we as ong distance demand. The Inverness to Centra Bet services are forecast to have adequate capacity as a resut of the increase in trains deivered through the panned December 2011 timetabe change. 39

40 5. Future demand Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey termini scenario 1. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL TWEEDBANK NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR 40

41 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure peak oad eves (07:00 10:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey termini scenario 2. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL TWEEDBANK NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR 41

42 5. Future demand Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey termini scenario 1. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL TWEEDBANK NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR 42

43 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure high-peak oad eves (08:00 09:00). Arrivas at Edinburgh Waverey termini scenario 2. Passenger to seat ratio More than 130% Between 100% 130% Between 70% 99% Less than 70% GLASGOW QUEEN STREET DRUMGELLOCH STIRLING FALKIRK HIGH COWDENBEATH ALLOA FALKIRK GRAHAMSTON BATHGATE WEST CALDER CARSTAIRS PERTH INVERKEITHING DUNDEE GLENROTHES WITH THORNTON KIRKCALDY EDINBURGH WAVERLEY NEWCRAIGHALL TWEEDBANK NORTH BERWICK DUNBAR 43

44 5. Future demand Figure peak train oads departing/arriving Aberdeen Trains with ess than 100% passenger to seat ratio Trains with 100% or greater passenger to seat ratio Trains without counts Scenario 1 Scenario 2 AM Aberdeen Aberdeen PM Aberdeen Aberdeen 5.7 Forecast changes in rura demand The rura market is forecast to grow by 27 per cent under the first scenario and by 46 per cent under the second scenario to The growth rates between different ines do not vary significanty as they are not directy impacted by the schemes in the base. Stranraer is an exception where the panned move of the ferry service to Loch Ryan Port wi reduce passenger numbers. Anaysis undertaken for the first Scotand RUS showed approximatey 50 per cent of current users of the ine aso trave on the ferry service. 5.8 Forecast changes in Ango Scottish demand The West Coast Main Line RUS has competed a demand forecast for journeys on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). The Draft for Consutation which was pubished in December 2010 reported the forecast growth on this corridor unti 2024 with the fina pubication due in Juy The forecasts aso used two growth scenarios, foowing the methodoogy presented in the Network RUS: Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts, pubished in June The forecasts were deveoped to incorporate consideration of factors affecting ong distance market size and market share. The forecast for two scenarios of passenger demand growth are shown in Figure For the Ango Scottish service on the East Coast Mainine (ECML) passenger demand the forecasts deveoped to 2030 in the Network RUS: Scenarios and Long Distance Forecasts have been used. It presents the growth in demand over a 30-year horizon based on four scenarios: goba responsibiity, continued profigacy, oca awareness and insuarity. The ECML forecasts to 2036 from the RUS are shown in Figure The tota growth for this demand is higher, refecting the onger forecast period. 44

45 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Figure 5.10 Growth in ong distance rai demand by scenario on the WCML to 2024 Goba responsibiity Continued profigacy Gasgow Edinburgh 79% 34% 59% 72% 37% 30% 66% 28% 54% 41% Manchester Liverpoo 107% 34% Birmingham 50% 36% Scae 1: way daiy fow size LONDON 45

46 5. Future demand Figure 5.11 growth in ong distance rai demand by scenario on the ECML to 2036 Gasgow Edinburgh 141% 80% 74% 37% 67% 32% 48% 22% Newcaste 147% 83% 79% 43% 85% 34% 95% 53% Leeds Scae 1: way daiy fow size % 52% 96% 43% Goba responsibiity Loca awareness Continued profigacy Insuarity LONDON 46

47 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Forecast changes in freight demand The forecasting approach Freight demand forecasts were deveoped nationay to 2019 and 2030 for the Strategic Freight Network (SFN). The forecasts were deveoped, using the Great Britain Freight Mode (GBFM) to assess the aggregate eve of demand. The GBFM is designed to forecast freight moved within Great Britain, incuding freight to and from the ports and the Channe Tunne. It covers different modes such as rai and road and produces a matrix of a forecast freight fows. For certain commodities, the GBFM forecasts were modified to refect operators understandings of deveopments in their markets. The fina forecasts, whie subject to a arge degree of uncertainty, aim to represent an industry consensus of a pausibe eve of traffic on which to base future pans. The forecast change in demand by commodity type is shown in Figure The forecast demand was mapped across the network. Figure 5.13 shows the forecast eve of freight paths required in the RUS area in The majority of the increase in demand is forecast to occur in the non buk sector. Strong deep sea container growth is forecast to continue. The competion of the W10 gauge cearance schemes between: Southampton and the WCML and the Haven Ports (East Angia) to the WCML wi further assist the competitiveness of rai in this market. Gauge cearance wi ead to an increase in paths required on the WCML and ECML. Domestic non buk is forecast to grow most rapidy, but this is from a ow base. This wi mean a significant increase in traffic to freight handing faciities in the Centra Bet. The buk sector is forecast to grow, abeit at a sower rate than the non buk sector. Within the Scotand RUS area coa traffic to the Longannet power station from Hunterston is forecast to remain at simiar eves to today. The demand for coa traffic from Hunterston to the power stations in Engand is forecast to decrease as the amount of coa imported through the port of Immingham increases. Other buk commodities, such as meta, aggregates, scrap, chemicas and cement are forecast to increase. The auminium fows from the West Highands are forecast to continue. The freight forecasts were made from a prerecession base. However, it is reasonabe to assume that foowing a period of reativey static growth, freight wi return to, or exceed, previousy attained eves of traffic. Intermoda tonne km have continued to grow during the recession abeit at a sower rate than forecast. Figure 5.12 forecast change in UK freight demand by commodity to 2030 Miion tonnes Biion tonne Km Average annua growth Average annua growth Soid fues % 8 5-2% Construction % 4 5 1% Metas and Ore % 3 3 0% Ports non buk % % Domestic non buk % % Other % 3 3 1% Tota % % 47

48 5. Future demand Figure forecast daiy freight paths Thurso Wick Inverness Kye of Lochash Aberdeen Maaig Fort Wiiam Oban Perth Dundee Stiring Longannet Gasgow Hunterston Kimarnock Carstairs Edinburgh Berwick-upon-Tweed Ayr Forecast freight daiy paths in each direction 2030 Up to and incuding 10 Above 10 and up to 20 Above 20 and up to 40 Above 40 and up to 80 Above 80 Stranraer Carise Newcaste 48

49 6. Gaps and options 6.1 Introduction This chapter expains the strategic gaps identified for the Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) and the options appraised to address the gaps. A gap is where the current or future raiway system does not or wi not meet the traffic eve requirements uness intervening action is taken. In keeping with the approach deveoped in Chapter 3, the gaps and options are presented by market. The chapter covers Gasgow conurbation, Edinburgh conurbation, interurban, rura and Ango Scottish markets. Three further areas of gaps and options which cross markets are addressed subsequenty: freight, network avaiabiity and station termina capacity. 6.2 Gap identification The RUS Stakehoder Management Group (SMG) identified gaps which were incuded in the scoping document. This ist was not exhaustive and each working group undertook further anaysis, in ight of the demand forecast, to assess areas where suppy of capacity and demand were not matched. This enabed a review of the gap when further evidence was presented. For on train passenger oads, a gap is identified where the forecast suggests passengers wi have to stand for more than 10 minutes. This is consistent with Scottish Ministers poicy. 6.3 Option appraisa The appraisa of the options covers socio-economic anaysis and operationa impact. Economic anaysis was conducted in accordance with the principes of the Scottish Transport Appraisa Guidance (STAG). When appraising options, the costs and benefits to the industry and society are taken into account. These costs and benefits are detaied beow: capita costs are those associated with infrastructure operating costs are those associated with empoyment of drivers and guards to run additiona services, the procurement of extra roing stock and the mieage costs associated with maintenance, track access and fue/eectric current for traction rai user benefits quantify the improved or worsened service to passengers as a resut of the option, incuding benefits from a reduction in crowding revenue is accrued through attracting more passengers to rai services non-user benefits are accrued by the abstraction of vehices from the road network reducing congestion, environmenta impacts (carbon, noise and poution), reduction in accidents and road maintenance costs other government impacts are the expected oss in tax duty reated to reduced car mies. The STAG criteria of environment, safety, economy, integration and accessibiity and socia incusion, were considered in the option appraisa. For presentationa purposes the anaysis beow highights within each option: operationa impact required infrastructure impact on passengers impact on freight financia and economic impacts where appropriate environmenta, accessibiity and socia incusion and safety benefits. In genera, the abstraction of passengers from road to rai woud produce environmenta benefits such as a reduction in poution, noise and carbon emissions and safety benefits as rai is generay a safer form of transport than road. The anaysis quantified the impact of the abstraction from road as part of the non-user benefits. There is aso an anticipated impact from an abstraction of passengers to rai from air trave. Whie these have not been quantified, it is anticipated that they woud not materiay impact the appraisas as air is not a significant competitor on domestic routes in Scotand. Likewise options with a positive passenger impact wi increase accessibiity and socia incusion by increasing opportunities for househods without cars and improve integration of the transport system. For specific options where the impact on environment, safety, integration and accessibiity and socia incusion are significant, they are described in the option anaysis. 49

50 6. Gaps and options Each option was appraised against the two growth scenarios detaied in Chapter 5. The resuts are presented in the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) tabes for each option. The options benefit to cost ratio (BCR) and net present vaue (NPV) are shown in each TEE tabe. The BCR shows the ratio between the monetarised benefits and costs where cost is defined as net costs to government. The BCR s presented are the BCR capturing the whoe cost to government. The BCR to the funding Agency woud typicay be higher as the change to indirect taxation woud not be treated as a cost. The NPV indicates the net vaue of the scheme and a positive number means that the benefits are greater than the costs of the option. These measures indicate the vaue of the option. In the option tabes scenario 1 growth shows the appraisa based on the ower forecast growth, whie scenario 2 presents the appraisa using the higher growth scenario described in Chapter Gaps and options Gasgow conurbation This section covers the gaps and options for the Gasgow conurbation market. The gaps identified for the market are: 1. peak capacity 2. ack of eary services 3. future eectrification Gasgow conurbation peak capacity The oading anaysis in Chapter 5 showed that by 2019 even with the committed schemes some corridors into centra Gasgow woud experience oad factors in excess of 100 per cent for more than 10 minutes. The most significant crowding is ikey to occur on the Argye ine from South Lanarkshire to centra Gasgow, on the Paisey Corridor, Whiffet ine and from Barrhead. Crowding was aso noted during the high-peak on services on the North Eectrics route from both east and west to Gasgow Queen Street but standing wi sti generay be imited to ess than 10 minutes. Assessment of option Gasgow 1.1 increase capacity on the Paisey corridor by operating inner and outer services Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis The option invoves recasting the timetabe to spit inner and outer suburban services to enabe the operation of six-car inner services to an appropriate station between Johnstone and Irvine whist outer services are operated using three or four-car sets. The option coud potentiay save roing stock by better aigning capacity to demand. An appropriate turnback faciity is required to enabe inner trains to operate. Any additiona services through the Paisey to Gasgow corridor woud require the third ine that is being deivered as part of the committed Paisey Corridor Improvement (PCI) programme. The option coud reduce crowding by better matching of passenger demand to capacity. Not assessed, opportunity for freight growth to be accommodated. None undertaken as PCI programme is currenty considering options. Link to other options Gasgow 1.2. Concusion A new timetabe is being deveoped targeted for impementation in ate

51 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option Gasgow 1.2 removing Kiwinning stops from fast Ayrshire services Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Ayr services experience higher oading than the Largs/Ardrossan services. The option woud remove the Kiwinning stops from some peak Ayrshire services to baance oads between Largs /Ardrossan and Ayr services. The option coud potentiay save roing stock by better aigning capacity to demand. The option reduces crowding on Ayr trains. The service frequency at Kiwinning wi be maintained with the introduction of additiona services but peak journey times from Kiwinning coud be engthened. None undertaken on the option as the PCI programme is currenty considering options. Link to other options Gasgow 1.1. Concusion A new timetabe is being deveoped, targeted for impementation in ate Demand forecasts show that there wi be significant crowding on the Argye ine morning-peak services by 2019, despite the roing stock cascade. Crowding on the westbound services is forecast to remain worse than on the eastbound services. Therefore, the westbound services were anaysed in detai. By 2019 in the high-peak hour (08:00 to 09:00), amost haf the westbound services wi have passenger oads above the seated capacity. Load factors on the busiest trains coud reach amost 200 per cent. Assessment of option Gasgow 1.3 train engthening Argye ine Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis The option engthens the Argye ine morning peak trains to provide additiona capacity. The engthening woud be imited to moving from three to six-car services, as the patforms on the tunne section of the Argye Line cannot accommodate onger trains. Anaysis of the 2019 forecast demand in the high-peak hour showed that even if a crowded trains were engthened to six-car units, the capacity woud not be sufficient to meet demand without some passengers standing for more than 10 minutes. The option woud aso not directy reieve crowding on the busiest six-car services. No anaysis was undertaken as the option was not seen as viabe to reieving capacity. Link to other options Gasgow 1.4. Concusion Train engthening coud not provide sufficient capacity to meet demand in the peak hour as the ength of patforms imits trains to six-cars. 51

52 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option Gasgow 1.4 additiona services on the Argye ine Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option provides additiona peak capacity on the Argye ine, by running a peak shutte service from Newton to Anderston. This creates three additiona train services, two in the highpeak hour. To enabe this to operate three peak Lanark services are diverted (and acceerated) to the high eve patforms at Gasgow Centra. Anaysis showed that the operation of three peak Lanark services into Gasgow Centra High Leve was feasibe without compromising performance. This woud save one three-car unit, which coud then be used to operate Newton to Anderston shuttes. The new services run in the paths that the Lanark trains currenty occupy on the Argye ine. These coud either turn around at Exhibition Centre or continue to Damuir/Garscadden in order to keep connectivity from the south east of Gasgow to the north west. Current anaysis suggests this scheme woud require the doubing of the Newton North Connecting Line (currenty proposed as part of the Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP)). More detaied timetabe work is required to confirm this. The new services woud reduce the oad factors on the peak services. However, under the higher growth scenario some services remain with oad factors above 100 per cent of seated capacity for more than 10 minutes. The shutte services provide additiona journey opportunities to Gasgow, and the faster services from Lanark aow some passengers to benefit from reduced journey times. The option reduces connectivity to the north-west of Gasgow for a sma proportion of Lanark passengers that trave beyond the city centre. If the new services continue through to Damuir/Garscadden then this impact is minima; if the shuttes terminate at Anderston and turnaround at Exhibition Centre this impact is sighty higher. The option appraisa assumes the new services operate from Newton through to Damuir/Garscadden. The crowding and journey time effects are sensitive to the stopping pattern of the Newton shuttes, so a best case timetabe to baance these benefits is assumed. The appraisa incudes the cost of the Newton North Connecting ine: 60-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits Link to other options Gasgow 1.3 NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Lengthening one of the Lanark trains into Gasgow Centra High Leve was considered but the crowding benefits are not sufficient to support the costs of additiona roing stock. Concusion The option is recommended subject to confirmation of the assumptions in the anaysis. Foowing further consutation with Stakehoders, concern was raised on whether the patforms at Gasgow Centra High Leve woud be abe to accommodate the PM peak services due to the number and mix of services in the station during certain hours. Anaysis has demonstrated that based on current known service pans the additiona services can be accommodated. 52

53 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option Gasgow 1.5 additiona capacity on the Whiffet ine Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis On the Whiffet ine, two high-peak trains formed of two-car roing stock wi be at capacity by The RUS considered three options to reduce crowding on the ine. Move to a three-car diese service, move to a four-car diese service comprised of 2 x two-car units that woud be spit down after the peak or operate three-car eectric services shoud the route be eectrified. There is no opportunity to spit/join three-car units, meaning that any such unit woud operate a day. It woud be possibe to spit 2 x two-car units out with the peaks. This woud require additiona roing stock. Eectrification woud enabe three-car trains to operate the Whiffet trains. They coud aso be diverted from the high eve to the ow eve patforms at Gasgow Centra providing additiona capacity on the crowded Argye ine and improving journey opportunities from Whiffet. The route between Whiffet and Ruthergen East Jn woud need to be eectrified in order for the three-car eectric option to be impemented. The option reduces peak crowding. None undertaken, as a baanced assessment woud not be possibe without further deveopment work on the eectrification part of the Tier 3 work. Link to other options Gasgow 3.1. Concusion The RUS recommends that the Tier 3 deveopment work consider the benefit of reieving crowding in the case for eectrifying the route. The Tier 3 work is currenty at Option Seection to review the costs associated with this eectrification work and further information can be found in Appendix B. Assessment of option Gasgow 1.6 additiona capacity from Barrhead Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Capacity coud be provided by engthening services on the ine. The fast high-peak services are busier but currenty operate from Carise and Girvan. Lengthening these services was discounted because of the considerabe additiona mieage needed to provide capacity from Barrhead. Lengthening the Barrhead starters is considered more ikey to be vaue for money due to the shorter distances. There are three roing stock options: 1. Lengthen to three-car diese 2. Lengthen to three-car eectric after eectrification 3. Lengthen to four-car diese If the Barrhead services are engthened to three-car they woud have to operate a day. This woud incur significant mieage costs. Eectrification woud enabe three-car trains to operate the Barrhead services, which woud be a cheaper way to provide capacity. It woud be possibe to spit a four-car diese service into 2 x two-car units out with the peaks. This woud require additiona roing stock but have ower off-peak operating costs. The route between Barrhead and Muirhouse Centra Jn woud need to be eectrified in order for the three-car eectric option to be impemented. The option reduces peak crowding, whie not targeting the busiest high peak fast services the option woud provide additiona capacity on the stopping services. None undertaken, as a baanced assessment woud not be possibe without further deveopment work on the eectrification part of the Tier 3 work. Link to other options Gasgow 3.1. Concusion The RUS recommends that the Tier 3 deveopment work consider the benefit of reieving crowding in the case for eectrifying the route. 53

54 6. Gaps and options Lack of eary services into Gasgow city centre The growth in fexibe working hours and shift work means that there is increasing demand for earier trave across the network. The RUS considered a range of corridors for earier trains and concuded that the Argye ine was the most ikey to require earier services given that they have aready been introduced on severa routes. Assessment of option Gasgow 2.1 earier services on the Argye ine Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is to start services one cyce earier in each direction, giving better access to centra Gasgow from Lanarkshire and the north west. This woud provide six new services: westbound, a service starting from Larkha, one from Lanark and one from Motherwe to Gasgow Centra. Eastbound, two new services woud start from Damuir, and one from Mingavie, which woud arrive at Gasgow Centra earier. The services coud be operated within the current route opening hours. Further assessment on the cost of additiona sub-surface station opening hours woud be needed. There woud be improved connectivity to the city centre eary in the morning. The operating costs incurred to operate the six additiona services in the morning were cacuated over a 30-year period. The passenger demand necessary to support a business case was then estimated. The demand needed is shown beow, to inform any decision about operating such a service. Financia and economic anaysis 30-year appraisa PV m Annua demand for socio-economic business case (Scenario 1) Annua demand for socio-economic business case (Scenario 2) Operating costs (present vaue) ,000 (approx 70 per train) 92,000 (approx 60 per new train) Link to other options Concusion Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices These passenger numbers are simiar to those currenty using the existing eary services and it is therefore reaistic to assume that they are achievabe. If the proposed new Motherwe Train Maintenance Depot is constructed the operationa costs of this option woud be significanty ess as empty mieage woud be reduced. The RUS recommends that the option be progressed. The RUS aso considered an option to provide earier services to Prestwick Airport but this was discounted at an eary stage as it appeared unikey that the cost of a dedicated airport service woud be justified by the patronage. This is based on the ow rai fares for Prestwick Airport passengers, the reativey ow passenger numbers anticipated, and the aternative eary morning bus option currenty provided. 54

55 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Opportunities from Eectrification of the Gasgow conurbation network Assessment of option Gasgow 3.1 further eectrification of the Gasgow conurbation network Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Environmenta Accessibiity and socia incusions The option considers the opportunities that eectrification of Gasgow conurbation routes (Whiffet, East Kibride, Kimarnock, Paisey Cana, Shotts, Anniesand and between Shieds Jn and High Street Jn) woud provide. Eectrification of the rai network reaises operationa benefits compared with diese powered trains in terms of potentia speed increases, reduced journey times and operating costs. Provision of one feet of eectric vehices woud provide the opportunities for roing stock efficiencies by inter-working between the ines. Some exampes of this are: improved unit integration with other suburban services (Newton/Neiston/Cathcart Circe) the Whiffet and Shotts services coud aso be diverted to the ow eve at Gasgow Centra freeing up patforms at Gasgow Centra High Leve existing eectric services can be diverted during perturbed working a reduction in Empty Coaching Stock mieage to/from depots. The eectrification requires substantia additiona infrastructure and modification to existing structures. The provision of three-car eectric stock woud reduce crowding experienced where two-car services operate on the Whiffet and Shotts ines. Using eectric vehices, which typicay have better acceeration woud reduce journey times. The feasibiity study for the eectrification of the Shotts route shoud consider whether W10 gauge cearance coud be achieved to provide a shorter route for freight services operating from south of Edinburgh on the East Coast Main Line (ECML) to Mossend than via Carstairs. As there is aready a Tier 3 deveopment workstream considering further eectrification opportunities the RUS has not appraised these options. Repacing diese trains with eectric trains wi have significant environmenta benefits of a major reduction in carbon emissions, noise and poution. New roing stock wi offer the option of improving the accessibiity of rai network for passengers with disabiities. Link to other options Gasgow 1.5. Concusion The RUS recommends that the Tier 3 deveopment workstream considers the above opportunities in the deveopment of the case for eectrification. The Tier 3 work is currenty at Option Seection and is reviewing the costs associated with this eectrification work. Further information can be found in Appendix B. 6.5 Gaps and options Edinburgh conurbation Edinburgh conurbation gaps The RUS identified that the principa gap for Edinburgh was the provision of peak capacity. For the purposes of this anaysis the commuter trains from Fife are incuded in this section, whie those from Linithgow are covered in the interurban section. The oad anaysis in Chapter 5 showed that by 2019 even with committed schemes some corridors into centra Edinburgh woud experience oad factors in excess of 100 per cent for more than 10 minutes. This was notabe on the North Berwick, Fife and Shotts services. On the other ines from Bathgate and Newcraigha, crowding was forecast to be within capacity. The new Airdrie to Bathgate timetabe introduced in December 2010 shoud provide sufficient capacity to cope with predicted growth athough the RUS recommends that this shoud be kept under review as the new service matures. 55

56 6. Gaps and options Options to address crowding on Fife services Assessment of option Edinburgh 1.1 Fife train engthening Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The forecast shows that by 2019 oad factors on some services wi be above 100 per cent. The option is for seective engthening of trains operating from Fife into centra Edinburgh. Patform engths at a number of stations mean that Seective Door Operation (SDO) woud have to be depoyed if trains were engthened to seven cars or onger or patforms woud require engthening to accommodate the onger trains. The option woud provide capacity and reduce crowding on Fife services. None The case for engthening services was appraised. The case for engthening the busiest two morning peak trains from three to four-car and one evening peak train from four to five-car is shown beow. The case incudes the cost of a return trip in both the morning and evening peaks. The services operate from Dunfermine and Dundee to Edinburgh, as the high mieage cost of operating around the Fife circe make those services more expensive to be engthened. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Financia and economic anaysis Other government impacts Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Link to other options Concusion Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices No case for engthening existing six-car services was found. Impementing Edinburgh 1.2 whie better baancing the oads is not expected to impact the trains invoved with the case for engthening. The option is recommended for impementation as a way to increase capacity on the route if higher growth occurs. In impementing the option, ways to minimise the mieage of the additiona vehices need to be considered. 56

57 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option Edinburgh 1.2 additiona stop in Fife services Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The oads on high-peak trains are not baanced equay. The option is to ater stopping patterns between Inverkeithing and Haymarket to hep baance the oads between peak services trains. In the current timetabe a stop may be added without impacting journey time. This may not be possibe in future timetabes. Any additiona stop woud increase journey opportunity and hep to baance oads from the busier to ess busy trains. No economic anaysis undertaken. As the option has no cost in the current timetabe it is anticipated to be financiay positive. Edinburgh 1.1. The option does not reduce the benefits of engthening a imited number of trains. The RUS recommends that the option as a concept is used to manage oads on trains to make the best use of capacity. 57

58 6. Gaps and options Morning peak capacity North Berwick services Two options were appraised to address anticipated overcrowding on North Berwick services by Assessment of option Edinburgh 1.3 extension of Prestonpans service to Drem Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Some peak arrivas from North Berwick are forecast to have crowding by 2019, whie the high peak arriva from Prestonpans has spare capacity. The option is to extend the service that starts at Prestonpans back to Drem to abstract passengers from the North Berwick trains. The option requires that one service operating through to Haymarket needs to terminate at Edinburgh Waverey to enabe the extension to happen within the current resource. The option increases peak frequency at Longniddry and Drem, reduces crowding on North Berwick trains, but reduces connectivity to Haymarket from the North Berwick ine. The extension is not anticipated to impact freight paths. The timetabe impact and changes in crowding were appraised in detai. A sma change in vehice mies was incuded. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Financiay Positive Financiay Positive Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Edinburgh 1.4. Concusion The option is recommended as a cost effective way to reduce crowding in the short term. 58

59 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option Edinburgh 1.4 North Berwick as three or six-car operation Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis The crowding on the four-car services cannot be reieved by train engthening as patform engths on the route cannot support seven/eight-car formations. The option investigates possibe feet compositions on the North Berwick ine. Operating six-car (23 metre) services woud require Seective Door Operation (SDO) and potentiay increased dwe time at patforms. Using three-car Cass 380 type roing stock woud aow the North Berwick trains to be inter worked with the Edinburgh Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) feet. Some off-peak operationa savings woud be reaised by the abiity to operate three-car trains in the off-peak rather than four-car trains. The option woud aso aow the inter-working of the North Berwick feet with the EGIP feet. Ony minor aterations if SDO can be used. Operating onger trains woud reduce crowding. There is the possibiity that on some services moving to three-car train engths from four-car woud increase crowding. Therefore, a range of feet sizes was appraised. The business cases for four different feet formations were tested x three-car interurban type units 2. 7 x three-car interurban units 3. 4 x three-car and 2 x four-car feet 4. 6 x three-car suburban units. Feet option 30-year cost Scenario 1 Growth Scenario 2 Growth NPV ( m) BCR NPV ( m) BCR Link to other options Concusion Impementing option Edinburgh 1.3 reduces the case for a compositions. Feet option 1 s BCR fas beow 1.0, but feet option 4 is above 2.0. The option is sensitive to the seating capacity provided with the best case reaised by the provision of higher density suburban type roing stock. The RUS recommends that the roing stock poicy is kept under review to deiver this soution in the ong term. 59

60 6. Gaps and options Morning peak capacity Shotts ine services Services on the Shotts ine are forecast to experience crowding by Crowding is worse at the Edinburgh end of the ine. Assessment of option Edinburgh 1.5 crowding on services via Shotts to Edinburgh Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is to engthen the busiest Shotts peak services to provide additiona capacity. It was not considered viabe to engthen services to three-car services as they woud have to operate a day. Therefore the preferred option is to engthen services by two-cars and detach during the off-peak. Operating onger trains woud reduce crowding on the route. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Tota costs Financia and economic anaysis Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion Lengthening the Shotts services to four-car diese services is ony vaue for money if growth rates exceed the high forecast or indirect taxation is excuded as a cost. The future eectrification of the route woud reduce the operating and easing costs. Nevertheess in the short term the current Franchisee is required to use a reasonabe endeavours to propose amendments that it considers shoud be made to the train pan to better match the passenger carrying capacity of the train feet to target passenger demand. The financia and environmenta impications of the current maximum 10 minute standing target are recognised and it is recommended that this be reconsidered as part of future franchise specification. 60

61 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Gaps and options interurban Interurban gaps This section covers the gaps and options anaysed for the interurban market. The RUS identified gaps as foows: 1. capacity from Stiring to Edinburgh and Gasgow 2. peak capacity at Inverness and Aberdeen 3. service frequency and journey times between key regiona centres and the Centra Bet Capacity from Stiring to Edinburgh and Gasgow after impementation of Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme The oading anaysis presented in Chapter 5 showed that the capacity on the core route between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street via Fakirk High woud argey be adequate once EGIP is fuy impemented. The oad factors experienced from Stiring to Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street are higher than the oads between the two cities. Assessment of option interurban 1.1 third high peak train Stiring to Edinburgh Waverey Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The post EGIP standard timetabe incudes two train per hour (tph) between Stiring and Edinburgh Waverey. The option is to provide an additiona high-peak service. The service can be accommodated in the EGIP timetabe, but woud have to run fast from Fakirk Grahamston. The option increases capacity between Stiring and Edinburgh and reduces journey times from Stiring and Fakirk Grahamston. None undertaken, as the service is now incuded in the EGIP peak timetabe. The option has been incorporated into the base EGIP timetabe. Assessment of option interurban 1.2 weekend train engthening Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The growing voume of trave on Saturdays and Sundays means that there are capacity constraints forecast on some weekend services. The option is to operate engthened trains on weekends between Stiring and Edinburgh. Lengthened trains coud be operated from the current resource base. The option increases capacity between Stiring and Edinburgh on weekend services. Economic anaysis has not been undertaken as the cost woud ony be the additiona mieage and trains woud ony be strengthened where passenger numbers required it. The option is recommended for impementation. 61

62 6. Gaps and options Morning peak capacity Stiring to Gasgow The post EGIP timetabe reduces the Aoa/ Dunbane services to three-car. This is because stops between Larbert (Croy in the off-peak) and Gasgow Queen Street are removed from the Aoa/ Dunbane trains reducing demand on the interurban services. A new Croy to Gasgow Queen Street shutte wi serve the intermediate stations (Lenzie and Bishopbriggs). Whie suitabe in the first years, the forecasts incude high growth rates for Stiring to Gasgow traffic which means that oad factors wi increase to over 100 per cent on some services. Assessment of option interurban 1.3 Stiring to Gasgow Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion Lengthen three-car Aoa and Dunbane trains to six-car after the EGIP timetabe is impemented. Anaysis showed that Gasgow Queen Street has capacity to aow onger trains provided the Croy shutte remains a three-car service. The option increases capacity between Stiring and Gasgow. Demand modeing suggests that the very high growth rates predicted after the introduction of the EGIP timetabe wi need to be reaised before additiona capacity is required. It is recommended that this is kept under review foowing the impementation of the EGIP timetabe to best aocate roing stock between services. 62

63 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Peak capacity at Inverness The oading anaysis suggested that capacity for the morning and evening is expected to be adequate for Inverness unti There is one evening service to the north from Inverness forecast to be heaviy oaded by 2019 party because of a two and a haf hour gap in the service. Assessment of option interurban 2.1 additiona evening peak service between Inverness and Dingwa Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option provides an additiona evening peak service between Inverness and Dingwa. The new service woud have to depart after the service forecast to be crowded, as the singe ine section does not permit an earier departure. High eve anaysis suggested it may be possibe to resource the service from the current feet of trains but incurs staff operating costs. The service woud increase frequency between Inverness and Dingwa and reduce crowding. The timetabe impact and changes in crowding were appraised in detai. A sma change in vehice mies was incuded. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The option does not produce adequate benefits to justify the cost incurred by the additiona mieage and train crew and this option is therefore not recommended. 63

64 6. Gaps and options Peak capacity Aberdeen commuting As noted in Chapter 5, services operating to and from Aberdeen in the morning and evening peak are forecast to have standing in excess of 10 minutes by Additionay, the oading anaysis showed that the CrossCountry morning peak service from Dundee to Aberdeen provides important capacity for meeting peak demand. Without this service, the oad factors on other trains woud be higher and service frequency woud be reduced. Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation, further anaysis has been undertaken on crowding in the evening peak. Assessment of option interurban 2.2 train engthening of Aberdeen services Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is for the engthening of crowded services into and out of Aberdeen in the morning and evening peaks. It is not possibe without significant operationa impact to add additiona vehices to services once they have started their journeys; therefore, engthened trains woud have to operate from their origin (potentiay Edinburgh or Gasgow) to Aberdeen athough the seats woud ony be required for ess than 20 minutes per journey. The option reduces crowding and provides additiona capacity on Aberdeen services. The appraisa shows the case for engthening the busiest two morning and evening services. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The high operating costs of running onger trains to and from Gasgow, Edinburgh and Inverness mean that the option cannot be recommended. 64

65 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option interurban 2.3 additiona services between Dyce and Aberdeen Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The option is to increase service frequency between Aberdeen and Dyce and provide increased capacity to address crowding. In addition there are greater than 30 minute gaps between some services. The singe ine between the two stations means that there are no avaiabe paths. A detaied investigation of the required infrastructure was not competed. To remove the constraints of the singe ine, doubing the ine through the cutting and tunne approaching Aberdeen is required. These works are expected to have a prohibitive cost. The option woud reduce crowding and provide improved journey opportunities. No anaysis was undertaken as a workabe timetabe coud not be deveoped. The option is not recommended for impementation. The current Tier 3 workstream to deveop improved services on the Aberdeen to Inverness ine shoud ook to cose this gap if possibe. The Tier 3 work is currenty at the Option Seection stage and further information on this scheme can be found in Appendix B. 65

66 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option interurban 2.4 additiona service between Stonehaven and Aberdeen Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact In the morning three hour peak, there is a 72 minute gap between services from Stonehaven to Aberdeen. The option is to provide an additiona service to cose this gap. Roing stock is avaiabe for an additiona shouder-peak service from existing resources. The avaiabiity of margina train crew resource was assumed. No capacity within the existing resource base was identified for other services. The option woud provide improved journey opportunities and additiona capacity between Stonehaven, Portethen and Aberdeen. None as existing freight paths are maintained. The timetabe benefits of the scheme were appraised. This is a conservative assessment as there is no benefit taken from abstracting passengers from busier trains. The abstraction woud provide some decrowding benefit. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The option is recommended subject to suitabe train crew resources being identified as it has a vaue for money case. 66

67 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option interurban 2.5 create Aberdeen north bay patform Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option provides an additiona north facing patform which woud reduce occupation of the through patforms and shunting moves at Aberdeen. Station working at Aberdeen is constrained by the track ayout, particuary at the north end of the station. It is anticipated that the new patform wi have performance and freight capacity benefits and reduce passenger train staff requirements. The option requires the construction of a north facing bay patform. The impact on passengers is anticipated to be minima. Aow easier freight access through the station by moving terminating passenger services away from the through ines. Financia anaysis was undertaken comparing the operator savings to the cost of construction. Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion Cost 2010/11 prices ( m) Net present vaue ( m) 10 years 30 years 60 years The RUS recommends the option for deveopment on the grounds that the scheme is ikey to produce a saving to Government. 67

68 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option interurban 2.6 strengthen Aberdeen services to and from the North in the peaks Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is to use one additiona two-car unit to address crowding in the morning peak by engthening and in the evening peak by providing an additiona Aberdeen service to north of Dyce. Due to the constrained capacity on the singe ine between Aberdeen and Dyce the new evening service woud have to spit from an existing 16:44 Aberdeen Dyce service at Dyce, before continuing north. The option woud reduce crowding and provide improved journey experience. It woud aso improve the connectivity between Aberdeen and stations north of Dyce by reducing the existing ong gap in the evening peak services. The economic appraisa assumes that an additiona two-car unit is required to operate this service. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The option is not recommended for impementation due to the poor BCR. The financia and environmenta impications of the current maximum 10 minute standing target are recognised and it is recommended that this be reconsidered as part of future franchise specification. This concusion coud be revisited if suitabe roing stock coud be identified as being avaiabe A day journey times and service frequency between regiona centres and the Centra Bet One of the Scottish Ministers objectives for the transport system is for improved journey times between major centres. The Regiona Transport Partnerships aso have aspirations for improved connectivity. The improvements in connectivity may occur as a resut of increased service frequency and/or reduced journey times. The RUS as a resut considered practica and cost effective ways to meet these aspirations. The corridors considered are: Aberdeen to Inverness Aberdeen to Edinburgh/Gasgow/Dundee Inverness to Edinburgh/Gasgow. 68

69 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option interurban 3.1 improved journey times and frequency between Aberdeen and Inverness Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The option provides one train per hour between Aberdeen and Inverness with minima additiona infrastructure. Timetabe anaysis showed that this option was not viabe using existing infrastructure as the trains passed each hour on the Egin Keith singe ine section. The key constraint is this ong section between Egin and Keith, and it was noted that even if the engineering aowance (additiona time inserted in the timetabe to aow maintenance activity to take pace) coud be moved away from this section, the journey time between Forres and Keith woud sti need to be reduced by three and a haf minutes (in each direction) to aow an houry service to work. Further anaysis suggested that impementation of an houry timetabe woud require Keith oop to be extended and Forres station ayout improved. This woud aso require engineering aowances to be fexed in both directions. The infrastructure enhancement woud resut in two minutes journey time reduction in both directions providing fastest journeys of two hour three minutes and two hour five minutes in the eastbound and westbound directions respectivey. This woud invove a 4.2 km oop extension at Keith and a rebuid of the station and oop at Forres station. The impact of the scheme woud provide a step change, improving journey times and service frequency between Aberdeen and Inverness. Financia and economic anaysis was not undertaken as the option is being deveoped under Tier 3. The resuts of the anaysis have been passed to the Tier 3 workstream with a remit to deveop suitabe options to address this gap. The Tier 3 work is currenty at Option Seection and further information on this scheme can be found in Appendix B. 69

70 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option interurban 3.2 recasting Aberdeen to Centra Bet as express services Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option provides a revised train service to reduce journey times between Aberdeen and the major centres in Scotand. The service specification incudes one train per hour (tph) express Aberdeen Dundee Haymarket Edinburgh, one tph express Aberdeen Dundee Perth Gasgow Queen Street and one tph a stations from Aberdeen to Dundee on existing infrastructure. Timetabe anaysis showed that this option was not viabe using existing roing stock as the option as tested meant that trains passed each hour on the Montrose Usan singe ine section, which crosses Montrose Basin on two viaducts, before running through a cutting. Timetabing trains to pass on other sections of this ine increased journey times. Even if roing stock with Cass 221 type performance characteristics (the best performing diese currenty avaiabe) was assumed, then train services over the singe ine woud have to operate on minimum headways presenting a considerabe performance risk. Even with the highest speed roing stock being utiised, the journey time aspirations identified in the STPR coud not be reaised. Impementation woud require four additiona three-car units. The option woud reduce journey times between Aberdeen and Dundee and the Centra Bet. Passengers at smaer stations woud ose direct connections to services south of Dundee and experience a reduced service frequency. The timetabe aso effectivey meant that freight services coud not operate during the day north of Dundee. High eve anaysis was conducted of the option comparing it to the 2009 timetabe to estabish the change in revenue, journeys and vaue of time savings from the revised timetabe. No costs of operation were incuded. Financia and economic anaysis Impact of new timetabe Change in journeys (no.) Change in revenue ( ) Change in vaue of time ( ) -87, , ,000 Link to other options Interurban 3.3. The timetabe increases journeys to and from Aberdeen, but this benefit was smaer than the disadvantages to passengers using Montrose, Arbroath and Stonehaven. Concusion The option cannot be recommended due to the impact on freight services and passengers at intermediate stations. 70

71 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option interurban 3.3 recasting the Aberdeen to Centra Bet timetabe on improved infrastructure Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is the same timetabe concept as interurban 3.2 but with additiona infrastructure provided on the Montrose Usan section. This is an intervention outined in the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) and the RUS considered further deveopment of this option in more detai. The option woud reduce journey times on the route and remove pathing time for northbound services. Four additiona three-car units woud be required to operate the additiona Aberdeen to Dundee services. The changes may aow the inking of the Aberdeen Dundee service to the Dundee Edinburgh services, permitting a direct connection between smaer stations and Edinburgh. Three options were considered to remove the constraint at Montrose Usan: a) doube the current singe section and viaducts b) buid new ine of route from Montrose keeping as straight an aignment as possibe to Boddin c) divert the raiway via the od soum through Frockheim Option c) was discounted as it had the highest cost and woud bypass Montrose. Option b) was the preferred option as it woud produce a greater reduction in journey times for a simiar cost to option a) athough a Transport and Works Scotand Act Order woud be required. Reductions in signaing headways to five minutes were aso considered to reieve constraints on freight. The option woud reduce journey times between Aberdeen and Dundee and the Centra Bet. Passengers at smaer stations woud ose direct connections south of Dundee towards Gasgow and experience a reduction on service frequency. Their journey times to Edinburgh woud be increased athough services woud be inked to the Aberdeen to Dundee service. Freight woud have to be ooped at Montrose/Laurencekirk as the infrastructure changes woud not aow a cear path. Anaysis of the timetabe was undertaken assuming the Dundee Edinburgh trains were inked to the Dundee to Aberdeen trains. 60-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices The option woud reduce carbon emissions by attracting passengers from car journeys. Environmenta The option woud require construction over the Montrose Basin and therefore woud need to be undertaken in a way not to harm the natura environment. Link to other options Interurban 3.1 and 3.2. Concusion Based on current passenger numbers this option cannot be recommended due the high cost of construction and operating costs. The Tier 3 workstream wi review what work is required to test this or an aternative option further; however it is unikey any major work wi be undertaken prior to Contro Period 6 (CP6). 71

72 6. Gaps and options Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation, two aternative options have been considered as possibe infrastructure soutions to provide improved journey times between Aberdeen and Perth. The options were: 1. Reopening of the cosed route from Kinnaber Jn (near Montrose) to Staney Jn (near Perth). 2. Improved aignment at the northern end of the route where ine speeds are ower. The aignment for the first option woud require 44.5 mies of new track at an estimated 15 miion per mie which woud tota c 700m in costs, which is substantiay higher than the option to doube Montrose to Usan. The option to improve the aignment at the northern end of the route was discounted as the amount of straightening required to deiver a one minute journey time reduction woud not deiver vaue for money. Assessment of option interurban 3.4 review of inespeeds Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion There are ocations on the route where inespeeds are not as high as coud be achieved by the roing stock. A review of speed restrictions was undertaken to identify options for deveopment to reduce journey times. A review of possibiities for differentia inespeeds using the cant deficiency rues between Aberdeen and Edinburgh/Gasgow was carried out. The anaysis found no further opportunities for increased inespeeds by differentia speeds. The review identified the foowing options: a) there is potentia to increase inespeed through Dock Street tunne north of Dundee b) Perth station coud benefit from a revised ayout or differentia speeds c) Perth to Barnhi inespeed coud be improved by moving the doube to singe connection at Barnhi on to the straight section d) remodeing of Arbroath station coud increase the inespeed. These options woud reduce journey times aong the route. Not competed as costs for these options have not been deveoped fuy for options a), b) and c) which woud most appropriatey be done in association with renewas work in the future. Costs and benefits shoud be identified in conjunction with other works. Option d) has an estimated capita cost of 25 miion and coud not be supported by the estimated one-minute journey time improvement. The change in journey time woud ony affect the imited number of express services, with most trains stopping at Arbroath. Impementing these options woud enabe faster journeys under option interurban 3.3 but woud not ater the operationa impacts. Options a) and b) coud be viabe if they were undertaken at the same time as other works (enhancements or renewas), but are unikey to have a case as standaone schemes. Option c) wi not be progressed at this time, but the option to introduce a differentia inespeed of 20/30mph between Perth and Barnhi is being progressed. The recommendation is that opportunities for inespeed upgrades be considered when future works take pace. 72

73 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Assessment of option interurban 3.5 a day frequency between Gasgow and Dundee Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option improves frequency between Gasgow Queen Street and Dundee by extending the 12 daiy Gasgow Queen Street to Perth services proposed for the 2011 timetabe to Dundee. This woud move coser to a two tph service between the two cities athough the current service pattern means a fu two tph service cannot be deivered as some trains operate from Perth onwards to Inverness. The option woud require an additiona three-car unit to operate the services due to insufficient turnaround times at Perth and Gasgow Queen Street. The option woud provide increased service frequencies between Dundee and Perth, Stiring and Gasgow. It woud aso reduce any crowding on Aberdeen to Gasgow services. This option may constrain future freight growth on this route. The timetabe option was anaysed on the assumption that an houry Gasgow to Perth service had aready been introduced. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The option does not produce adequate benefits to justify the cost incurred by the additiona mieage and train crew and this option is not recommended. The proposed December 2011 timetabe incudes additiona Dundee/Gasgow services incuding a new eary morning departure. 73

74 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option interurban 3.6 journey times and frequencies Inverness Centra Bet Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The option considers improved journey times and higher frequencies between Inverness and the Centra Bet incuding infrastructure changes. Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation the Tier 3 workstream has considered detaied options to be deivered in a phased approach. The options cover: 1) additiona two trains per day and tai ight cameras to be introduced by December ) incrementa inespeed improvements through infrastructure works to be reviewed in a phased approach 3) provision of additiona infrastructure such as new oop(s). Timetabe anaysis has identified the constraints on the route and in particuar consideration of additiona oops at Etteridge (between Dawhinnie and Kingussie) and/or Bainuig (between Dunked and Pitochry) has been undertaken. Further anaysis of the route showed that if ooping and pathing time were not required the theoretica journey times woud be further reduced. Additiona passing oops woud increase the route capacity and faciitate greater journey time reductions. The RUS cannot recommend the exact ocation of the oops as the anaysis was based on the proposed 2011 timetabe, which is deiverabe within the existing infrastructure ayout. A fu recast of the timetabe may resut in aternative ooping ocations providing benefits. The timetabe assumptions that the initia anaysis is based upon can ony recommend consideration of additiona oops at Etteridge and/or Bainuig to shorten the ongest singe ine sections on the route. The option woud speed up journey times for passengers. Increases to inespeeds may benefit freight operators on the route. Not competed as the Tier 3 workstream is currenty deveoping a working timetabe. Resuts of the anaysis have been passed to the Tier 3 deveopment project considering the Highand Main Line. Further information on this scheme can be found in Appendix B. 74

75 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Gaps and options rura Rura gaps The rura working group noted that the gaps were weekend capacity issues on the Gasgow and South Western ine between Gasgow Centra and Carise via Dumfries and journey times across the rura ines Increased weekend capacity on the Gasgow to Carise via Dumfries ine The oading anaysis of the route showed that some Saturday services, which are currenty operated by two-car roing stock, wi potentiay experience oad factors over 100 per cent by On Sundays, when the service is restricted by the need to maintain the raiway, oad eves are consideraby ower. The route is at present maintained overnight Saturday to Sunday in order to provide 24-hour access during the rest of the week. This is not panned to change but noting the changes in coa traffic forecast, the RUS has considered the case for an improved Sunday service were the maintenance regime to be revised. Assessment of option rura 1.1 Saturday crowding on the Gasgow to Carise via Dumfries route Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact A number of services on Saturdays are anticipated to experience crowding in 2019 due to the high number of eisure trips between Dumfries and Carise. The units for engthening woud need to trave from Gasgow to Dumfries uness additiona roing stock can be hired from another train operator at the southern end of the route. The option reduces crowding between Carise and Dumfries. This option was anaysed on the basis of additiona vehice mieage costs ony. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Link to other options Concusion Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices The RUS recommends that train engthening from the existing resource base is impemented as passenger numbers grow to meet demand. 75

76 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option rura 1.2 improved Sunday service on the Gasgow to Carise via Dumfries route Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis The option woud move the Sunday service pattern coser to the eve provided on Saturday if route maintenance access was revised. The 24-hour weekday freight service means maintenance is currenty conducted on Sunday mornings restricting the avaiabiity of the route for passenger services. Three timetabes were considered: 1) one train every two-hours between Carise and Dumfries 2) one tph between Carise and Dumfries 3) one tph between Carise and Dumfries with some extended to Gasgow. Providing additiona Sunday train crew may incur high costs as there is imited staff avaiabiity at Dumfries depot. The option woud increase service frequencies providing earier access to Carise from Dumfries and ater access to Dumfries from Carise. In anaysing the three timetabes, earier access to the route was assumed possibe and no costs for any revised maintenance arrangements have been incuded. Scenario 1 Growth Scenario 2 Growth Option 30-year cost NPV BCR NPV BCR Timetabe Timetabe Timetabe Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion Staffing issues for the franchise operator need to be considered in detai before this option is impemented. Route opening hours need to be kept under review to see if earier access to Carise can be achieved. The RUS recommends that additiona services are operated to fi the gaps in the current service particuary between Carise and Dumfries. Assessment of option rura 1.3 service specification on the Stranraer ine Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion A new December 2011 timetabe is proposed to better aign the demand after the withdrawa of the ferry service from Stranraer. The current service operating on the Stranraer ine does not meet passenger needs with four out of the seven services arriving at Stranraer after 17:00 and three departing after 19:00. The proposed new timetabe offers an improvement in the service pattern. The ong singe ine sections on the route couped to constrained roing stock resources mean that there is itte scope for significant changes. An improved service specification wi enabe a more reguar service to operate on the ine. It is envisaged that the specification coud be deivered on a cost neutra basis. The new Stranraer December 2011 timetabe improves the service and reduces some of the intervas between trains, deivering improvements on a cost neutra basis. In the onger term further aterations may be required to optimise services on the route. 76

77 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Improved journey times on rura routes The speeds on sections of the rura routes are ower than can be achieved by the roing stock. This eads to onger journey times and a reduction in passenger numbers. Improvements in rura journey times woud promote accessibiity for rura communities, increasing access to services and opportunities in arger centres. The benefits of journey times over representative sections of the rura route were appraised and from this, the associated maximum eve of capita expenditure that coud be supported to achieve a BCR of 1.5 was estimated. The resuts are shown in Tabe 6.1. The figures shown in the tabe are indicative of the overa eves of capita expenditure that coud be spent if a passengers benefit from a one minute reduction in journey time on the described sections. The range of capita spend was compared to possibe schemes on the routes, such as remova of some permanent speed restrictions and improving oop speeds on Radio Eectric Token Bock (RETB) routes. The working group concuded that the costs of the schemes and the time savings they woud produce woud not be sufficient to justify the cost compared to the estimated benefits. Incrementa enhancement opportunities may arise in conjunction with future renewa works. Tabe 6.1 Monetarised benefits of a reduction in journey times on sections of the rura network Line Measured between Station 1 Station 2 Capita expenditure that coud support BCR of 1.5 m (2009 prices) West Highand Crianarich Ardui Kye of Lochash Dingwa Garve Far North Dingwa Aness Stranraer Girvan Barrhi G&SW Gretna Green Annan

78 6. Gaps and options Improved journey times by conversion of eve crossings Speed restrictions at eve crossings infuence the overa journey times on a number of rura routes. These types of eve crossings can aso present a safety risk if misused. Anaysis was undertaken to estabish whether there was an economic case for conversion of some crossings from AOCL (automatic open crossing) to ABCL (automatic barrier crossing). Assessment of option rura 2.1 upgrade Bunchrew AOCL Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option is to repace Bunchrew AOCL (between Inverness and Dingwa) with an ABCL. Bunchrew was appraised as it woud benefit the greatest number of passengers and therefore be most ikey to have a vaue for money case. Conversion of Bunchrew AOCL to an ABCL. The option woud resut in a shorter journey time for a passengers traveing between Inverness and Beauy (and beyond). The option was appraised taking account of impact on safety and train passengers. No journey benefits to road users were incuded, but these are not anticipated to affect the economic appraisa materiay. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Safety Link to other options Concusion The option woud permit inespeed over the crossing to be raised whie maintaining safety eves. The option cannot be recommended as it does not produce sufficient journey time benefits to justify the cost. 78

79 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Gaps and options freight Freight gaps The forecast freight traffic was anaysed to see whether any specific freight capacity gaps arose in Scotand. The resuts of the anaysis are described beow. Specific freight gaps and options that have been considered incude: 1) capacity for freight growth 2) freight performance 3) gauge cearance on the East Coast Main Line (ECML). For a number of freight schemes the benefit occurs primariy to passenger services. The resuts presented are against the two passenger growth scenarios where appropriate Shotts ine headways and capacity constraints The impact of the enhanced passenger service on the Shotts ine was anaysed to see if freight growth coud be accommodated. A scheme to remode Midcader Jn as a doube junction is aready being progressed in Contro Period 4 (CP4). Whie capacity was adequate to meet the forecast, it was considered whether redoubing the junction coud reduce deay and improve freight operations. The anaysis suggested that there was adequate capacity on the ine for the current service but this coud restrict freight growth. The anaysis showed that signa headways were adequate but did imit capacity growth. The RUS recommends that signaing headways are considered when resignaing occurs on the route. The first section of the route is expected to be resignaed as part of Motherwe North resignaing in Contro Period 5 (CP5). The anaysis identified that the use of the westbound patform at Sateford for eastbound freight services accessing the Edinburgh Suburban ine was restricting capacity. 79

80 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option freight 1.1 doubing Sateford Jn Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option woud reduce passenger deays by removing the need for eastbound freight trains to run via the westbound patform at Sateford station. The option woud aso increase capacity through the junction. Potentia reiabiity improvement was measured taking account of the current performance impact of freight trains on passenger services. Redoubing of the junction. The option woud improve the reiabiity by removing a wrong direction freight train which coud deay passenger trains. The option woud reduce freight journey times by removing the need to run via the westbound patform for services towards the Edinburgh Suburban ine. The appraisa has ony assessed impact on passenger services, a sma reduction in freight operator cost is expected, but this woud not change the resuts. 30-year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The option cannot be recommended for impementation because of the poor BCR. The RUS recommends that and adjacent to the junction is protected so that a scheme to redoube the junction coud be deveoped when the infrastructure in the area is renewed. 80

81 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Greenhi Jn capacity and reiabiity Greenhi Jn is a considerabe constraint particuary for freight services operating towards Grangemouth, Longannet power station or the north. The ack of a freight reguating point aso means that freight trains running out of sequence can cause deay in the area. EGIP grade separates Greenhi Upper and Lower junctions, thus reeasing this capacity constraint. Anaysis undertaken for the RUS showed that there wi be sufficient freight paths to access both Grangemouth and the Stiring corridor. The provision of an additiona freight reguating point woud assist in reducing deay in the area. Assessment of option Freight 2.1 bi-directiona oop at Greenhi Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option woud provide a freight reguating point at Greenhi Jn. If this is undertaken at the same time as the EGIP works occur, the cost of construction woud be reduced. Deays to passenger trains as a resut of freight trains were anaysed. The reiabiity data does not capture the additiona deay caused by the ate running trains north of Greenhi Jn. The additiona oop woud enabe greater fexibiity to the freight timetabe. Therefore, it is a conservative assumption. Minor aterations to signaing and crossovers. The option woud improve reiabiity of passenger services. The option woud provide an additiona reguating point for trains accessing Longannet/ Grangemouth improving reiabiity. The appraisa assessed the impact in passenger services. Savings to freight have not been quantified. 30 year appraisa Scenario 1 growth PV m Scenario 2 growth PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost Operating cost Revenue Other government impacts Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits Non-users benefits Tota quantified benefits NPV Quantified BCR Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Link to other options Concusion The RUS recommends that this scheme is further deveoped as an incrementa enhancement to the EGIP works using the Sma Projects Fund. 81

82 6. Gaps and options Loop engths at Mossend An objective of the STPR is to permit onger trains to operate on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) and the RUS identified that the abiity to hande ong freight trains at Mossend is a constraint. The West Coast Main Line RUS is considering the case for accommodating freight growth south of Carstairs. Assessment of option 2.2 improvements to Mossend Freight operation Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The option is to aow for onger freight trains to/from and through Mossend by increasing the oop engths, yard capacity and access and egress to the faciity. In order to run onger trains to Mossend the abiity to path the trains on the WCML needs to be proven. To be identified. Improvements to the freight operation may deiver performance benefits to passengers. The option wi aow onger trains to operate to Mossend, which woud generate a saving to operators and suppy additiona capacity. This wi contribute towards the drive to minimise industry costs by reducing journey times, improving performance and running onger and heavier services. None undertaken as scope of works not finaised. It is anticipated that the scheme wi reduce costs to freight operators. Other benefits are non user benefits, mainy decongestion benefits, associated with improving arriva and departure speeds into and out of the depots, in ine with the Scottish Ministers poicies of reducing carbon emissions. This option is being deveoped under Tier 3 and work is currenty at Option Seection, further information on this scheme can be found in Appendix B. 82

83 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Gauge cearance of the East Coast Main Line to W10 The forecast growth in non-buk freight and the trend towards high cube containers means that there is an increasing need to provide a gaugeceared diversionary route to Scotand from Engand when the WCML is cosed. The Strategic Freight Network (SFN) identified the East Coast Main Line (ECML) north as a potentia diversionary route to Scotand. In addition the forecast increase in non-buk traffic on the ECML wi mean there is increasing need to provide the appropriate gauge for high cube freight. Assessment of option freight 3.1 gauge cearance of the East Coast Main Line north of Newcaste Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option cears the gauge to W10 on the route from Tempe Hirst Jn near Doncaster to Carstairs Jn, via the Edinburgh Suburban ine. This woud create a second W10 freight route to Scotand permitting trains from east coast ports in Engand to access centra Scotand terminas. The option woud provide a diversionary route when the WCML is cosed. It woud aso aid the provision of seven-day freight access to Scotand. The option woud require a number of structures to be rebuit or modified to enabe the higher gauge freight to operate. The option woud provide a second W10 gauge-ceared route to Scotand. This woud enabe freight trains to carry high cube containers via the ECML on standard wagons improving rai s competitiveness with road. It is envisaged this woud ead to a moda shift towards rai from road. The appraisa shows the business case of one additiona freight train operating between Doncaster or Middesborough and Gasgow. It does not capture the diversionary benefits, cost savings to operators or the impact of moving to a seven-day freight operation. 60-year appraisa PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost 7.6 Operating cost 0.0 Revenue 0.0 Other government impacts 13.8 Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs 21.4 Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits 0.0 Non-users benefits 72.1 Tota quantified benefits 72.1 NPV 50.7 Quantified BCR 3.4 Environment Link to other options Concusion Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Removing orries from the road is anticipated to reduce noise, poution and carbon emissions. The option is recommend for impementation based on the above conservative business case. This scheme is funded through to impementation and is schedued for competion in

84 6. Gaps and options 6.9 Gaps and options Ango Scottish Ango Scottish gaps As there are other workstreams considering Ango Scottish service frequencies and journey time they were not considered as part of the RUS. The West Coast Main Line RUS is considering gaps arising on Ango Scottish services on the WCML (Fina pubication expected Juy 2011) The East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review estabished in February 2011 considers potentia uses of the ECML at the end of CP4. The West Coast Main Line RUS is ooking at various gaps that wi affect the RUS area. These incude: 1. capacity for passengers and freight (in particuar between the North West and Scotand) 2. journey times 3. regiona inks (incuding services to Motherwe / Lockerbie) and additiona services. The East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review has sought detais of paths operators may wish to run in a December 2016 timetabe, and considers whether a of these aspirations can be deivered. Where this was not possibe, the economic trade-offs between the vaue of those paths and any further infrastructure intervention that may be required were anaysed Motherwe connectivity Various options were deveoped and appraised in the West Coast Main Line RUS in order to repace the ost connectivity between London and Motherwe foowing the introduction of the May 2011 timetabe. These incude additiona cas at Motherwe on the London Euston Gasgow service, as we as repacing some of the existing Penrith stops with Motherwe on this service. Another option considered additiona cas at Motherwe on the Manchester Scotand service after competion of eectrification of routes in the North West to improve connectivity to the South. The Office of Rai Reguation decision on access rights for the new West Coast Franchise presents an opportunity for the current London Euston to Lancaster services to be extended to Gasgow Centra and another option coud be to insert Motherwe stops into these services. In order to permit a robust strategy on the route between Preston and Scotand and deveop the best overa soution for passengers, it is important to hoisticay consider the stopping pattern for a services operating on this section. The actua stopping pattern shoud be subject to additiona investigation by the incumbent franchisee Lockerbie connectivity Options were deveoped to improve connectivity between Lockerbie and Gasgow and Edinburgh. If end-to-end journey times are not impacted too severey, there may be an opportunity for additiona cas in either the Birmingham Scotand or Manchester Scotand service at Lockerbie. This shoud be considered during the future timetabe deveopment process. Transport Scotand and ScotRai are currenty investigating the case for additiona oca trains between Newcaste and Edinburgh. Emerging deveopments from these workstreams have been considered in the termina capacity work (see section 6.11 beow) Routeing options to improve performance There are various diversionary routes for WCML services in the Motherwe area of which the most frequenty used is that via Beshi/Wishaw. This aso has the advantage of removing services from the busy Lesmahagow Jn at Motherwe. Assessment of Option 1.1 running non-stop services via Hoytown to aow improved performance on Ango Scottish services. Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Concusion The option diverts the WCML Ango Scottish service between Law Jn and Uddingston Jn via Wishaw to remove conficts, reduce pathing time and improve train performance around the Motherwe area. Services can currenty be diverted via Wishaw but this increases journey time by 4 minutes. A significant amount of structures and geotechnica works are required to increase inespeed on the diversionary route so as to reduce journey times such that they are comparabe with the main ine. The option woud speed up journey times for passengers during disruption and for panned services. Increases to inespeeds benefits freight operators on the route. Not competed as costs have not been deveoped fuy. Costs and benefits shoud be identified in conjunction with other works. The initia estimated capita cost of 45 miion +/- 50% coud not be supported by the change in journey time and performance. These woud ony affect the imited number of services diverted via Wishaw. This option coud be viabe if undertaken at the same time as other works (enhancements or renewas), but it is unikey to have a case as a standaone scheme. The recommendation is that opportunities for inespeed upgrades are considered when future works take pace. 84

85 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Gaps and options network avaiabiity Network avaiabiity gaps The time avaiabe for operators to run services on the network has been assessed. The RUS conducted further anaysis on the sections where operators have a desire for routes to be open for onger than currenty. The areas that were identified as gaps were: 1. overnight access to Inverness for freight hour operation between Edinburgh and Gasgow 3. earier southbound WCML services from Gasgow Centra on Sundays. Currenty there is one overnight freight service between the Centra Bet and Inverness. This can be accommodated without significant impact on the abiity to maintain the infrastructure. Within current operating practices/rues it has been assessed that it woud not be possibe to do any maintenance if more than one freight train operated. Stakehoders consider that there is potentia for growth in intermoda traffic to Inverness which wi require the operation of more than one train at some point. Assessment of option network avaiabiity 1.1 overnight freight services to Inverness when the Highand Main Line is cosed for maintenance Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Increase freight capacity to Inverness from the Centra Bet by changing maintenance practises to aow additiona trains at night. To aow the additiona freight services, maintenance on the route woud need to move to a one-week in six basis. In the weeks where the ine was being maintained the overnight freight services between Perth and Inverness woud need to operate via Dundee and Aberdeen, requiring a change to signa box opening hours. The scheme is expected to enabe an increase in freight services to Inverness. 10-year appraisa PV m Costs (present vaue) Investment cost 0.0 Operating cost 5.2 Revenue 0.0 Other government impacts 1.9 Financia and economic anaysis Tota costs 7.1 Benefits (present vaue) Rai users benefits 0.0 Non-users benefits 12.0 Tota quantified benefits 12.0 NPV 4.9 Quantified BCR 1.7 Environment Link to other options Concusion Removing orries from the road is anticipated to reduce noise, poution and carbon emissions. Recommended for impementation when traffic eves require it. 85

86 6. Gaps and options Assessment of option network avaiabiity 1.2 a night service between Edinburgh Gasgow Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact The option provides an a night service between Edinburgh Gasgow. It was assumed that the service woud run non-stop in order to permit trains to use aternative routes as necessary to aow maintenance access. There are significant operating costs. The service woud increase the opportunities to access empoyment and eisure activities in the two cities. Paths are avaiabe that woud not impact freight access. The option needs to attract considerabe numbers of passengers to make the scheme viabe. Financia and economic anaysis 30-year appraisa PV m Operating Costs (present vaue) 9.2 Annua demand required for socioeconomic business case (scenario 1) 64,000 (approx 35 per train) Annua demand required for socioeconomic business case (scenario 2) 54,000 (approx 31 per new train) Note: A figures are presented in 2002 market prices Given the current average demand for non-stop Edinburgh Gasgow trave it is unikey that this eve of demand woud be achieved a night. The anaysis suggests, however that there is demand for earier morning services. Link to other options Concusion It is recommended that the service between the cities starts one hour earier to provide for earier arrivas in both Gasgow and Edinburgh. This option shoud be further deveoped in the EGIP timetabe and consideration shoud be given to intermediate stops. 86

87 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 Sunday morning services on the West Coast Main Line have been identified as suffering overcrowding. At present the ony maintenance opportunity on the section of route between Law Jn and Carstairs South Jn is on a Saturday night which precudes earier Sunday morning trains. It may be possibe to operate a more frequent service ater in the morning if suitabe roing stock was avaiabe but at present the WCML franchisee s feet is fuy utiised ater in the day. Assessment of option network avaiabiity 1.3 earier West Coast Main Line services on Sunday mornings Concept Operationa anaysis Infrastructure required Passenger impact Freight impact Financia and economic anaysis Link to other options Concusion The option is to use singe ine working to enabe earier departures on Sundays from Gasgow Centra on the WCML. Currenty the service cannot depart earier due to the need to maintain the raiway. Bi-directiona signaing between Law Jn and Carstairs South Jn when signaing becomes due for renewa. The option woud improve connectivity. The option if impemented woud aow for improved Sunday freight access to Scotand if combined with simiar improvements south of Carstairs (considered by the West Coast Main Line RUS). None undertaken as costs are not avaiabe. The RUS recommends that further work is done to deveop costs so that the option can be appraised in fu. For additiona trains to run the whoe WCML route needs to be considered. This option shoud be further considered when the Motherwe South resignaing becomes due in CP5/ Termina capacity The capacity at the three key termina stations (Gasgow Centra, Gasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverey) was examined to determine whether the committed schemes, recommendations of this and other estabished RUSs and other funder aspirations coud be accommodated. For each station, a patform capacity exercise was undertaken to assess the abiity of the station to accommodate an increased number of train services and onger trains in 2019 and in Where this was not feasibe within the existing infrastructure, options to make it work were identified. Consideration was aso given to the issue of patform and passenger throughput constraints. It is recognised that improving waking time in stations wi improve the integration of rai with other modes of transport. Likewise, reductions in congestion at stations and easier access wi make rai more accessibe to ess mobie passengers. A future service specification was deveoped for the RUS for 2016 and This incuded the Airdrie Bathgate, the EGIP timetabe and the recommendations isted above. Potentia interventions on quantum and ength and pattern of Ango Scottish services were aso incorporated (incuding potentia service options after the introduction of High Speed Two (HS2)) taking anticipated outputs from the West Coast Main Line RUS and East Coast Main Line 2016 Capacity Review Gasgow Queen Street capacity The baseine for the anaysis was the EGIP 2016 infrastructure and timetabe. The station was found to be abe to accommodate the trains in the avaiabe patform space. Further anaysis incuded the option to engthen the Croy shuttes and Aoa/Dunbane services. The anaysis proved that if both services were engthened to six-car then an additiona patform is required. The RUS therefore recommends that the and for the additiona patform space is protected. The RUS noted that there is concern about the avaiabe concourse space at the station as passenger numbers grow. Options to provide additiona concourse space using the footprint of the car park in co-operation with private sector deveopers are being considered. 87

88 6. Gaps and options Gasgow Centra capacity The starting point for the capacity anaysis was the December 2010 timetabe. The additiona patforms buit in 2010 on the west side of the station provide sufficient capacity to enabe up to four additiona tph to operate. The 2019 scenario incuded the infi eectrification of the remaining Gasgow South suburban network incuding onger and more frequent suburban services and onger Ango Scottish services to London Euston and Birmingham as recommended by the West Coast Main Line RUS. The Whiffet trains were assumed to be diverted to Gasgow Centra Low Leve. Finay, the Kings Cross service was assumed to be repaced by the CrossCountry service via the ECML from Birmingham. The resuts showed that in 2019 the station has adequate capacity to cope with the atered service pattern subject to suitabe repatforming work. The 2030 scenario was anaysed with further engthening of suburban services from the East Kibride, Kimarnock, Paisey Cana and Cathcart ines. Long distance services from Manchester and Birmingham were engthened, and additiona services were incuded from East Kibride and from Edinburgh via Carstairs, as we as an additiona houry service from London. In 2030, there is adequate capacity for suburban services. However, accommodating the number of ong distance trains becomes difficut, due to the number and ocation of onger patforms. There are a number of options to provide additiona patform capacity in and around Gasgow Centra. These wi be progressed as traffic growth emerges. The growth in passenger numbers may resut in an increase in passenger station congestion. An intervention may be required during the ifetime of this RUS. Options to address this have been deveoped for future consideration. They incude changes to the retai sites and passenger faciities on the different eves Edinburgh Waverey capacity During the next 20-years, Edinburgh Waverey is to undergo a step change in the eve of service and passenger demand. This is driven by the introduction of Airdirie Bathgate services in 2010 and the panned EGIP and Borders Raiway services. Couped with this are the impacts of the potentia High Speed ine. The baseine for the 2019 anaysis of termina capacity was the post EGIP timetabe. This confirmed that the service eve and formations can be accommodated within the 2016 infrastructure. The post EGIP ayout can aso broady cope with services engthened to 2030 formations. This incuded engthening ong distance services from Birmingham (via ECML and WCML) and from Manchester. In addition, engthening of North Berwick, Borders Raiway services to Tweedbank and Gasgow via Shotts services was assumed. Accommodating these trains reies on more Birmingham via the ECML services being extended to Gasgow, freeing up patform capacity at Edinburgh Waverey. In 2030, the potentia for two additiona HS2 (London) services per hour and a Birmingham service were considered, aong with two additiona tph from the Borders Raiway and the Birmingham WCML service now running every hour. The post EGIP ayout of patforms and track can accommodate a anticipated trains except the HS2 services, which due to their ength wi be difficut to accommodate. There is forecast to be a change in the eve of pedestrian demand, in the station. The impact of which is very difficut to mode as it is to a arge extent determined by the individua timetabe (and associated patform working) in operation at the time. In the short term the additiona eevators and escaators provided by the Edinburgh Waverey Steps Project wi improve the passenger fow. The RUS recommends that where there is a step change in service provision then the tookit approach to station crowding deveoped in the Network RUS: Stations is appied. 88

89 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Consutation process and overview 7.1 The Draft for Consutation The Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) Draft for Consutation was pubished in October As described in the previous chapter the document outined a number of gaps between the present capabiity of the network and the predicted demand up to It then proposed a wide range of options for bridging the gaps. The Draft for Consutation was distributed to a wide range of stakehoders and the document avaiabe on the Network Rai website. A period of 12 weeks was given to aow stakehoders to respond, which ended on 13th January During the consutation period Network Rai hed a workshop with the Wider Stakehoder Group (WSG). This aowed user groups and stakehoders the opportunity to discuss the concusions of the Draft for Consutation with Network Rai and members of the Stakehoder Management Group (SMG). During the consutation period Network Rai aso hed meetings with a number of stakehoders (incuding Regiona Transport Partnerships) individuay, at which specific issues were discussed. 7.2 Consutation responses The consutation garnered 69 responses and respondees fe into five broad categories. Forma responses were received from: The RUS Stakehoder Management Group Transport Scotand ScotRai Virgin Trains Direct Rai Services First TransPennine Express Association of Train Operating Companies Office of Rai Reguation Passenger Focus DB Schenker Freightiner Statutory and vountary rai user groups Campaign to Open Backford Raiway station Again (COBRA) Friends of the Far North Line Freight Transport Association Scottish Association for Pubic Transport (SAPT) Dornoch Rai Link Action Cydesdae Rai Link Action Group Raifreight Group thg Rai Stranraer to Ayr Line Support Association (SAYLSA) Cumbernaud Commuters Association Caithness Transport Forum 89

90 7. Consutation process and overview Regiona Transport Partnerships/Loca Authorities Tayside and Centra Scotand Transport Partnership (tactran) South West of Scotand Transport Partnerships (SWestrans) North East Scotand Transport Partnerships (nestrans) South East Scotand Transport Partnerships (SESTran) Highands and Isands Transport Partnerships (HITRANS) Strathcyde Passenger Transport (SPT) South Lanarkshire Counci Stonehaven Community Counci Scottish Borders Counci South Ayrshire Counci Edinburgh District Counci Dundee City Counci Newtonhi Community Counci East Lothian Counci East Ayrshire Counci City of Edinburgh Counci Stiring Counci Fife Counci Fakirk Counci Aberdeen City Counci Gasgow City Counci Poitica, campaigning and charitabe organisations Raifuture Scotand Companies, other pubic or private organisations, eected representatives and private individuas Stewart Stevenson MSP Jack McConne MSP John Thurso MP Gasgow British Airports Authority UK Atomic Energy Association 21 private individuas Copies of the responses can be found in the Scotand Route Utiisation Generation Two section of Network Rai s website at Key themes in the consutation responses Overview The RUS covers a arge and diverse popuation, which was refected in the responses received. The Draft for Consutation generated considerabe interest which is a significant indication of the importance attached to rai transport in Scotand. This chapter outines the key issues raised during the consutation period and expains how the responses have heped shape the deveopment of the fina strategy. Genera reaction from most respondents was positive, wecoming the fact that the Scotand RUS (Generation Two) updates and where necessary revises the origina strategy which was pubished in Responses were generay supportive of the gaps identified, the overa direction of the RUS, and the work being done. Stakehoders recognised the eve of consutation that has been carried out throughout the deveopment of this strategy, and the considerabe chaenge of the arge and varied geographica area covered by this RUS. The responses received were we considered, varied and in a number of cases comprehensive. Therefore ony the key and recurring themes are summarised beow Areas for further anaysis As a resut of the consutation responses, further anaysis was carried out on a number of new gaps and some aternative options. One piece of work that Network Rai carried out ooked at what interventions woud be required to permit running Ango Scottish services via Hoytown to match journey times via Motherwe. This anaysis recognised that routing via Hoytown, particuary in the southbound direction had potentiay more benefit as there woud be fewer junction conficts in the Motherwe area. This work is detaied in Chapter 6. As a resut of the changes to East Coast Main Line (ECML) service in May 2011, the Stakehoder Management Group identified a new gap concerning connectivity from Motherwe to the South. This gap arose when the previous Gasgow Centra to London King s Cross service was repaced by a Gasgow Centra to the South West via Edinburgh Waverey service. A number of options to address this gap have been considered and the resuts of the anaysis are presented in Chapter 6. Stakehoder consutation responses requested that Network Rai source more recent count data to determine peak crowding and growth as the Draft for Consutation used data from 2008/09. The revised work containing the new count data is detaied in Chapter 3. 90

91 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June Capacity interventions Most stakehoders expressed strong support for the RUS proposas to increase capacity. The Draft for Consutation described a number of potentia interventions, which eicited positive responses: running peak inner and outer trains in the Gasgow suburban area to maximise the capacity of the network received approva. The Draft for Consutation modeed the Gasgow suburban morning peak service to prove the concept and stakehoder responses requested that Network Rai aso mode the evening peak period. Network Rai has ooked at the impications of running fast services from Gasgow Centra High Leve to Lanark in the evening peak and the anaysis is reported in Chapter 6 engthening weekend trains between Stiring and Edinburgh to reduce crowding creation of an additiona north facing bay patform at Aberdeen which woud reduce occupation of the through patforms, and shunting movements. Operations at Aberdeen Station are constrained by the track ayout, particuary at the north end. The new bay patform wi provide performance and capacity benefits, and reduce operationa costs. This option received significant support and the Draft for Consutation recommended the option for deveopment on the grounds that the scheme is ikey to produce a saving to Government. Since the Draft for Consutation was pubished this scheme has started to be deveoped and funded through the Tier 3 deveopment fund Freight interventions Responses from Freight Operators referred to the need to progress the proposa to open the route at night between Perth, Aberdeen and Inverness to enabe maintenance of the Highand Mainine on a one week in six basis and to increase the overnight freight access to Inverness. Further work on the costs associated with providing this diversionary route have been undertaken since the Draft for Consutation was pubished and the resuts of the anaysis are presented in Chapter 6. Other comments noted that parts of the network require increased fexibiity, incuding gauge cearance improvements on the ECML to W10 gauge north of the border, to provide an aternative route for Ango Scottish intermoda trains in the event of the West Coast Main Line (WCML) route being unavaiabe, and provide capacity improvements such as engthening Mossend Loops on the WCML to enabe onger freight trains to run. As anaysis presented in Chapter 6 indicated, gauge cearance works to deiver W10 gauge on the ECML have a positive business case and this scheme is now funded through to impementation. Work continues on deveoping the case for onger oops at Mossend through the Tier 3 deveopment fund. Comments received referring to freight capabiity underine the opportunity that exists to transfer road freight to rai in order to reduce highway congestion Connectivity interventions There was much support amongst stakehoders for the recommendations made in the Draft for Consutation to improve connectivity between urban centres. However nestrans had requested a review of the work undertaken to reduce the journey time from Aberdeen to the Centra Bet. Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation a review of the route to Perth via Dundee to understand the case for providing sections of new ine around the Carmont area with a higher speed profie was undertaken. Consideration was aso given to reopening the od route between Kinnaber Jn (north of Montrose) and Perth via Forfar. The resuts of this anaysis are presented in Chapter 6. Tactran requested that Network Rai review why the Tay Estuary Rai Study proposa for additiona suburban services from Perth to Dundee and Arbroath (compementing existing Gasgow to Aberdeen services) had not been recommended in the Draft for Consutation. Further anaysis of the business case has been undertaken for this option and the origina concusion that these additiona services do not contribute to cosing the identified gap remains vaid. However, it is acknowedged that the additiona services coud form part of an enhanced Perth and Dundee suburban area service if appropriate funding becomes avaiabe. Hitrans wecomed the assessment of improved journey times and frequency of services between Inverness and the Centra Bet and Inverness to Aberdeen. SWestrans wecomed the assessment in the Draft for Consutation that the current service operating on the Stranraer ine does not meet passenger needs, and that the timetabe shoud better serve the needs of the oca popuation when the ferry service moves away from Stranraer Harbour. 91

92 7. Consutation process and overview Termina capacity Stakehoder consutation responses requested that Network Rai revisit the work carried out in the Draft for Consutation to confirm that a known interventions that impact on the capacity at the key termina stations (Gasgow Centra and Edinburgh Waverey) be re-examined to determine whether the committed schemes, recommendations of this RUS, other RUSs and funder aspirations coud be accommodated. Whist the proposas for additiona suburban services in the Gasgow area were modeed for operationa viabiity in the morning peak, stakehoders expressed concern that a simiar service might be harder to accommodate in the patforms at Gasgow Centra in the evening peak when there are significanty more Ango Scottish services operating in the area. Since the pubication of the Draft for Consutation, timetabe anaysis has been undertaken for the evening peak period and the resuts are presented in Chapter Aspirations A number of the responses received are categorised as aspirations under the RUS process. However, many stakehoders beieved that proposas such as new stations, re-opening od ines, improvements of services at individua stations or on routes where no gap had been identified by the RUS process, shoud be incuded in the strategy, as athough they sti require funding soutions, they provide an indication of what coud be done in the future. Responses which propose options identified as being outside the RUS process wi be passed to raiway specifiers and funders for consideration. We are gratefu to a of those who responded to the Draft for Consutation. The voume and range of responses from right across the spectrum of those with an interest in the RUS area has been impressive. We hope that, within our terms of reference, we have been abe to take account of genuine concerns. 92

93 8. Strategy 8.1 Introduction The Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy (Generation Two) (RUS) has reviewed the concusions of the previous RUS covering Scotand in the ight of revised passenger and freight demand forecasts, and significant changes in circumstances since its pubication. It has taken into account other aspirations that stakehoders have indicated they coud potentiay fund, particuary those of Scottish Ministers. This process has identified new or amended gaps which the RUS has then sought to sove. The recommendations for gaps and options in the previous RUS that have not been addressed aready and remain unchanged by this review sti stand. For the gaps to be addressed by this RUS, options were deveoped, tested, and modified unti feasibe soutions were identified that meet vaue for money criteria and are consistent with anticipated funding. The RUS was pubished as a Draft for Consutation in October 2010 and the responses to the consutation have ed to further anaysis being undertaken on the recommendations proposed which have in turn informed the strategy. The incusion of any recommendation in this RUS does not indicate necessariy that funding is avaiabe within the time scaes shown. The timing of the impementation of each option is dependent on changes in passenger numbers and freight voumes as we as an appropriate funder being identified where appropriate. This chapter now deveops these recommendations into the strategy for the RUS. 8.2 Principes In Juy 2007, Scottish Ministers High Leve Output Specification (HLOS) for Contro Period 4 (CP4) was pubished. This set out the improvements in the safety, reiabiity, and capacity of the raiway system which Scottish Ministers wished to secure during CP4. In December 2008 Transport Scotand pubished its Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) spanning the next 20 years, which so far as rai is concerned, proposed a number of recommendations, which are Scottish Ministers priority schemes for capita investment expenditure. A number of schemes have received funding and are panned to be impemented within the period. Other schemes from the STPR are to be further deveoped during Contro Periods 4 and Deaing with growth The genera principe adopted in RUSs has been to consider simper and ower cost interventions before turning to more compex and expensive soutions. In the first instance, optimising use of existing infrastructure and capacity was examined. Timetabing soutions have aways been sought as preferabe to infrastructure works, subject to there being no unacceptabe performance impact. The next step has been to consider the progressive engthening of trains where heavy demand exists to the maximum practica size and ony then to ook towards infrastructure enhancement. Again the range of options is considered in order, from simper schemes such as patform extensions or increased gauge. For intermoda traffic, through more far-reaching measures such as capabiity works for more trains, to more comprehensive investment in a particuar ine of route. In some cases, the provision of additiona services may offer a soution to reduce crowding on the peak and interpeak services, which offers passengers a better service than simpe train engthening. Looking to the medium term, account has been taken of the opportunity presented by the introduction of further new trains to provide increased capacity per train and to consider the part that increased use of eectric traction might pay. It is recognised that the Scottish Government target of a maximum standing time of 10 minutes may ead to roing stock traveing ong distances to sove short distance crowding issues. This can ead to high costs in both financia and carbon terms. On onger distance interurban services and on inner suburban routes, increasing the maximum permitted standing time woud reduce the need for costy engthening of roing stock. This needs to be baanced against the disincentive of standing on routes with a competitive road network. The financia and environmenta impications of the current maximum 10 minute standing specification are recognised and it is recommended that this be reconsidered as part of future franchise specification. 93

94 8. Strategy Eectrification It is recognised that eectricifaction has the potentia to reduce costs and the carbon impact of the rai industry, whie improving the product offered to passengers. The STPR recommended the eectrification of a number of routes across Scotand using a phased approach between 2012 and This RUS has assumed in the baseine the eectrification of those routes in the Edinburgh to Gasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) (phase one). Initia feasibiity studies have been competed on phase two routes in suburban Gasgow. Phase three and beyond are onger term options on which no detaied work has been done to estabish the costs/feasibiity of eectrification. A eectrified routes within the RUS area have recenty been made receptive to regenerative braking, aowing the environmenta and financia benefits of regeneration to be expoited by future new buid, and re-engineered roing stock Roing stock Transport Scotand s Roing Stock Depoyment Pan detais how roing stock wi be used to deiver increased capacity and hence contribute to the capacity outputs for the remainder of CP4. Given that the detai of the Roing Stock Pan for Contro Period 5 (CP5) and beyond is sti evoving, the infrastructure and capacity enhancements recommended within this RUS wi be incuded where appropriate. Joint work by the Train Operators, Transport Scotand, and Network Rai is ongoing and is expected to continue beyond the pubication of this strategy. Key issues incude not just the requirement to meet the capacity needs but the effect of trains reaching the end of their practica ife and the inabiity to reconfigure trains to meet modern standards and accessibiity reguations. The refranchising of the majority of passenger services in Scotand in 2014 provides an opportunity to consider the depoyment of roing stock across the network Depots and stabing A strategic soution to provide adequate roing stock faciities is a network-wide issue and is being considered as part of the Network RUS. However, so far as commuter services into the main Scottish cities are concerned the strategy is to accommodate the additiona eectric vehices required during CP4. Both Shieds and Corkerhi Depots in Gasgow have been refurbished to permit maintenance of additiona vehices. Stabing and servicing faciities at Ayr Townhead, and Yoker Depots have aso been enhanced and a new faciity at Bathgate has been constructed for the new vehices and subsequent cascade of roing stock. The next step change in roing stock wi come with the introduction of EGIP in CP5. This programme of works wi repace existing diese services connecting Edinburgh Waverey, Gasgow Queen Street, Aoa and Dunbane with modern eectric vehices and is ikey to require two new eectric depots for stabing, ceaning, and maintenance. Current pans suggest a stabing and ceaning depot in the Stiring area but at this stage the maintenance faciity is not yet finaised. The introduction of EGIP roing stock wi aso generate a potentia cascade of the existing feet Power suppies Traction power suppy is potentiay critica to service deveopments such as the operation of more frequent and onger trains. Power suppy modeing has been undertaken as part of the EGIP project. Based on the current train service proposas an additiona eectric feeder station is panned at Bonnybridge (near Fakirk), together with a number of new track sectioning ocations across the area proposed for eectrification. The onger term power suppy requirements have been considered within the Tier 3 work on extending Gasgow Suburban eectrification in accordance with phase two of the STPR eectrification recommendations. This indicates that further power suppy upgrades woud be triggered by the extension of eectrification to Kimarnock and Shotts Freight capabiity Freight growth requires a number of capabiity improvements, incuding capacity for additiona services, gauge cearance of further core arteries over which intermoda freight operates, and the abiity to operate onger freight trains. These issues wi be addressed on some routes in Scotand in CP4 but further works wi be necessary, particuary in reation to the first two, for those intermoda arteries not addressed, as this traffic wi be the main growth market for rai freight. Additionay, the forecast continuing growth of traffic through the terminas in the Mossend, Coatbridge and Grangemouth areas wi need infrastructure interventions to improve the access and enabe onger trains to operate in ine with termina deveopment (see on page 98) Performance The previous RUS covering Scotand made recommendations as to how reactionary deay coud be reduced. This RUS has not specificay studied this issue further. However, for those interventions examined by this RUS consideration of their effect on reactionary deay has been taken into account Network avaiabiity It is recognised that there woud be merit in moving towards a regime whereby fundamentay the same timetabe operated on a daiy basis. This refects the increasing demand that passenger services at weekends shoud more cosey match the Monday to Friday service and the growing need of freight 94

95 Scotand Route Utiisation Strategy Generation Two June 2011 customers for consistent daiy continuity of suppy, in ine with what is generay avaiabe from the road transport industry. Network Rai is eading the industry workstream on improving network avaiabiity, under which the overa vision is to deiver the working timetabe, aongside cycic maintenance, renewa and enhancement requirements. This wi require the consideration of more fexibe operationa ayouts at the time renewas are carried out, together with changes in working arrangements. The atter are ikey to incude introduction of quicker and simper procedures for taking and giving up possessions, couped with changed ways of working to aow trains to operate during engineering works, probaby faciitated by the instaation of further bi-directiona signaing when renewa opportunities arise. Most of the RUS recommendations reating to additiona services concern either the commuter peaks or the main part of the day, the atter on both weekdays and weekends. These are times when there is generay no maintenance access. In some cases in the RUS area, key stations can be accessed by more than one route, so that reasonabe continuity of service is possibe at times of engineering work or perturbation, abeit with some journey time extension. Particuary for freight, a key issue is that comparabe capabiity exists on diversionary routes, notaby in reation to gauge cearance. Work in this area continues to be deveoped. It wi aso be important in any changes to the maintenance regime or the infrastructure to see that users of oca passenger services (which make up a significant proportion of operations in the RUS area) are not disproportionatey affected in the interest of onger distance services. However, for much of the area covered by this RUS, there is no reasonabe diversionary route, therefore when renewas or other enhancements are proposed, opportunities shoud be examined to provide a more fexibe track ayout, such as bi-directiona signaing, athough often the cost of these enhancements wi be difficut to justify Access to stations Access to the network was highighted as a gap in the previous RUS. Some measures were proposed to improve access to the raiway such as improved interchange and park and ride faciities at a number of stations, together with work under the Access for A initiative for which funding wi be avaiabe unti There wi be a continuing need to work with Train Operators, the Regiona Transport Partnerships (RTPs), Loca Authorities and other stakehoders to maximise access opportunities both within the Network Rai property portfoio and beyond it to deiver those interventions previousy identified that are not funded in CP4. Transport Scotand is deveoping a car parking strategy due for pubication in Short-term strategy (Contro Period 4) Background Athough the ast year of the current CP4 from Apri 2009 to March 2014 is the baseine year for this RUS, an overview of the strategy for CP4 is incuded here as a ead into the strategy recommended for future Contro Periods. The strategy for CP4 is funded to impementation. It primariy consists of measures to improve journey times and connections, to tacke congestion and the ack of integration, reduce emissions, tacke the issues of cimate change, air quaity and heath improvement, improve quaity, accessibiity and affordabiity, and to give peope a choice of pubic transport. Anticipated dates for deivery of infrastructure enhancement projects funded by Network Rai are set out in the Network Rai CP4 Deivery Pan, which is updated quartery, and the annua Route Pans. These documents are avaiabe on the Network Rai website at The summaries in and represent the current proposas Train services The foowing changes to train services (isted in panned deivery order) currenty form the strategy for CP4: engthening of some services from three to fourcar and others from six to seven-car operation on the Paisey Corridor foowing the deivery of the new Cass 380 trains in 2010 and This has aowed a cascade of roing stock to provide extra capacity on the Argye ine and to provide roing stock for the Airdrie to Bathgate service the opening of the Airdrie to Bathgate ine in December 2010 provided a through service between Heensburgh/Mingavie and Edinburgh Waverey via Gasgow Queen Street Low Leve and resuts in increased service provision between Bathgate and Edinburgh Waverey the introduction of improved East Coast Main Line (ECML) services between Edinburgh Waverery and London in May 2011 with consequentia aterations to services between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Centra/ Aberdeen incuding additiona trains between Gasgow Centra and Birmingham via Edinburgh Waverey/Leeds/Sheffied increased off-peak service frequency between Perth and Gasgow Queen Street revised service introduced to Stranraer foowing the transfer of the ferry service to Loch Ryan Port increasing the frequency of service and improving journey times between Inverness and the Centra Bet 95

96 8. Strategy introducing a revised service pattern on the Paisey Corridor performance improvements through reduction in reactionary deay, either in conjunction with other interventions in the CP4 strategy or where separate vaue for money and affordabe projects are achievabe during CP4 options wi be deveoped for deivery of the medium-term strategy set out in section 8.4 new services on the Borders Raiway to Tweedbank introducing additiona services between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Centra via Carstairs as part of EGIP Infrastructure The foowing schemes form part of the short term strategy: improved turnback faciity at Dumfries various inespeed improvements throughout the RUS area various sma-scae capacity improvements throughout the RUS area first phase of EGIP eectrification upgrade of Damarnock Station in preparation for the Commonweath Games which aso contributes to the Gasgow East End Regeneration sma-scae projects to enhance performance, provide margina capacity improvements and/ or journey time improvements funded via the Sma Projects Fund which is expected to incude work at Stiring, Laurencekirk Loop and between Ladybank Jn and Hiton Jn W10 oading gauge works between Newcaste and Carstairs via the Edinburgh Suburban ine. 8.4 Medium-term strategy (Contro Periods 5 and 6) Background This section covers the interventions that make up the emerging RUS strategy for Contro Periods 5 and 6 (CP5 and CP6). The strategy is made up of the panned investments detaied in Chapter 5 and the options considered as vaue for money in Chapter 6. The STPR noted that there was not a panned funding horizon and the RUS has taken the view that ony funded interventions are considered part of the baseine strategy Train services The foowing recommended changes to train services form the proposed strategy for CP5 and CP6: provision of increased services on the Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street ine to provide a 37 minute journey time between Edinburgh and Gasgow for the fastest services via Fakirk High. This wi aso provide six eectrified trains an hour between Edinburgh Waverey and Gasgow Queen Street as we as eectric and acceerated services between Dunbane/Aoa and Edinburgh/Gasgow additiona shouder-peak service in the Aberdeen area introduction of oca service between Croy and Gasgow Queen Street progressive introduction of new and/or refurbished roing stock to repace ife-expired diese and eectric vehices increased/strengthened train provision on the Gasgow Centra to Carise via Dumfries route (mainy at weekends) further increases in train paths on those routes predicted to see a significant increase in freight services 96