Incremental Auction Review

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1 Incremental Auction Review Incremental Auction Senior Task Force March 1, 2017 Joe Bowring John Hyatt

2 Summary A significant amount of replacement capacity is obtained through the RPM Incremental Auctions. With very few exceptions, the auction clearing price in Incremental Auctions is below the auction clearing price in the associated BRA. The First Incremental Auction price is on average 41 percent below the associated BRA price

3 Summary The Second Incremental Auction price is on average 45 percent below the associated BRA price. The Third Incremental Auction price is on average 43 percent below the associated BRA price

4 Sources of replacement capacity June 1, 2007 to June 1, 2016 Replacement Transactions UCAP (MW) Locational UCAP Transactions Excess Commitment Credits Excess ILR MW Credits Commitment Reductions using Replacements Commitment Additions on Replacement Resources Cleared Buy Bids Gen DR EE Gen DR EE Net Replacements 01-Jun Jun , , , Jun-09 1, , , , , Jun-10 1, , , , , , Jun-11 1, , , , , , , Jun-12 9, , , , , , , Jun-13 12, , , , , , Jun-14 13, , , , , , , Jun-15 11, , , , , , Jun-16 16, , , , , , , ,

5 Sources of replacement capacity to total replacements for all Capacity Resources: June 1, 2007 to June 1, 2016 Replacement Transactions Locational UCAP Transactions Excess Commitment Credits Excess ILR MW Credits Cleared Buy Bids Gen DR EE Gen DR EE Total Replacements Major Source of Replacements 01-Jun Replacement Transactions - Gen 01-Jun % % Replacement Transactions - Gen 01-Jun % 60.4% 0.6% % % 100. Replacement Transactions - Gen 01-Jun % 36.4% 0.3% % % 19.7% 100. Replacement Transactions - Gen 01-Jun % % % % 20.1% 100. Replacement Transactions - Gen 01-Jun % 26.2% % 10.9% 0.1% % Cleared Buy Bids 01-Jun % % 3.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.2% Cleared Buy Bids 01-Jun % 13.4% 11.5% 3.6% 8.6% 0.2% 0.5% Cleared Buy Bids 01-Jun % 14.7% % % 0.8% Cleared Buy Bids 01-Jun % 16.2% % 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% Cleared Buy Bids

6 10 First IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Annual) FIRST IA - ATSI - Annual FIRST IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Annual FIRST IA - BGE - Annual FIRST IA - COMED - Annual FIRST IA - DPL-SOUTH - Annual FIRST IA - EMAAC - Annual FIRST IA - MAAC - Annual FIRST IA - PEPCO - Annual FIRST IA - PPL - Annual FIRST IA - PSEG - Annual FIRST IA - PS-NORTH - Annual FIRST IA - RTO - Annual FIRST IA - SWMAAC - Annual

7 10 First IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Limited) FIRST IA - ATSI - Limited FIRST IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Limited FIRST IA - BGE - Limited FIRST IA - COMED - Limited FIRST IA - DPL-SOUTH - Limited FIRST IA - EMAAC - Limited FIRST IA - MAAC - Limited FIRST IA - PEPCO - Limited FIRST IA - PPL - Limited FIRST IA - PSEG - Limited FIRST IA - PS-NORTH - Limited FIRST IA - RTO - Limited FIRST IA - SWMAAC - Limited

8 First IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Summer Extended) FIRST IA - ATSI - Summer Extended FIRST IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Summer Extended FIRST IA - BGE - Summer Extended FIRST IA - COMED - Summer Extended FIRST IA - DPL-SOUTH - Summer Extended FIRST IA - EMAAC - Summer Extended FIRST IA - MAAC - Summer Extended FIRST IA - PEPCO - Summer Extended FIRST IA - PPL - Summer Extended FIRST IA - PSEG - Summer Extended FIRST IA - PS-NORTH - Summer Extended FIRST IA - RTO - Summer Extended FIRST IA - SWMAAC - Summer Extended

9 Second IA compared to BRA Price Change (Annual) 10 Percent SECOND IA - ATSI - Annual SECOND IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Annual SECOND IA - BGE - Annual SECOND IA - COMED - Annual SECOND IA - DPL-SOUTH - Annual SECOND IA - EMAAC - Annual SECOND IA - MAAC - Annual SECOND IA - PEPCO - Annual SECOND IA - PPL - Annual SECOND IA - PSEG - Annual SECOND IA - PS-NORTH - Annual SECOND IA - RTO - Annual SECOND IA - SWMAAC - Annual

10 Second IA compared to BRA Price Change (Limited) 10 Percent SECOND IA - ATSI - Limited SECOND IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Limited SECOND IA - BGE - Limited SECOND IA - COMED - Limited SECOND IA - DPL-SOUTH - Limited SECOND IA - EMAAC - Limited SECOND IA - MAAC - Limited SECOND IA - PEPCO - Limited SECOND IA - PPL - Limited SECOND IA - PSEG - Limited SECOND IA - PS-NORTH - Limited SECOND IA - RTO - Limited SECOND IA - SWMAAC - Limited

11 Second IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Summer Extended) SECOND IA - ATSI - Summer Extended SECOND IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Summer Extended SECOND IA - BGE - Summer Extended SECOND IA - COMED - Summer Extended SECOND IA - DPL-SOUTH - Summer Extended SECOND IA - EMAAC - Summer Extended SECOND IA - MAAC - Summer Extended SECOND IA - PEPCO - Summer Extended SECOND IA - PPL - Summer Extended SECOND IA - PSEG - Summer Extended SECOND IA - PS-NORTH - Summer Extended SECOND IA - RTO - Summer Extended SECOND IA - SWMAAC - Summer Extended

12 10 Third IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Annual) THIRD IA - ATSI - Annual THIRD IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Annual THIRD IA - DPL-SOUTH - Annual THIRD IA - EMAAC - Annual THIRD IA - MAAC - Annual THIRD IA - PEPCO - Annual THIRD IA - PSEG - Annual THIRD IA - PS-NORTH - Annual THIRD IA - RTO - Annual THIRD IA - SWMAAC - Annual

13 10 Third IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Limited) THIRD IA - ATSI - Limited THIRD IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Limited THIRD IA - DPL-SOUTH - Limited THIRD IA - EMAAC - Limited THIRD IA - MAAC - Limited THIRD IA - PEPCO - Limited THIRD IA - PSEG - Limited THIRD IA - PS-NORTH - Limited THIRD IA - RTO - Limited THIRD IA - SWMAAC - Limited

14 Third IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change (Summer Extended) THIRD IA - ATSI - Summer Extended THIRD IA - ATSI-CLEVELAND - Summer Extended THIRD IA - DPL-SOUTH - Summer Extended THIRD IA - EMAAC - Summer Extended THIRD IA - MAAC - Summer Extended THIRD IA - PEPCO - Summer Extended THIRD IA - PSEG - Summer Extended THIRD IA - PS-NORTH - Summer Extended THIRD IA - RTO - Summer Extended THIRD IA - SWMAAC - Summer Extended

15 2018/2019 First IA compared to BRA Percent Price Change / FIRST IA - Base 2018/ FIRST IA - Base DR/EE 2018/ FIRST IA - Capacity Performance

16 PJM Sell Offer History PJM Sell Offer Cleared in Auction Weighted Weighted Delivery Year Auction Product Type MW Average Price MW Average Price 2012/2013 FIRST Annual $ $ /2013 SECOND Annual 3,522.3 $ ,376.8 $ /2013 THIRD Annual 2,729.8 $ ,990.9 $ /2014 FIRST Annual 3,263.8 $ ,494.9 $ /2014 SECOND Annual 4,987.0 $ ,602.1 $ /2014 THIRD Annual 1,099.2 $ $ /2015 FIRST Limited 3,147.8 $ ,702.4 $ /2015 SECOND Annual 2,039.8 $ ,635.3 $ /2015 THIRD Annual $ $ /2016 FIRST Annual 2,126.2 $ ,876.0 $ /2016 FIRST Summer Extended 28.9 $ NA 2015/2016 SECOND Annual 1,098.2 $ $ /2017 FIRST Annual $ $ /2017 FIRST Limited 1,022.6 $ $ /2017 SECOND Annual 4,561.7 $9.39 4,307.7 $ /2017 THIRD Annual 5,223.4 $9.44 4,818.0 $ /2018 FIRST Annual 4,035.0 $ ,709.9 $ /2018 SECOND Summer Extended $ $ /2018 SECOND Annual 3,144.7 $ ,926.8 $ /2019 FIRST Base 3,666.5 $ $

17 PJM Buy Bid History PJM Buy Bid Cleared in Auction Weighted Weighted Delivery Year Auction Product Type MW Average Price MW Average Price 2012/2013 FIRST Annual $ $ /2013 THIRD Annual 11.6 $ $ /2014 THIRD Annual $ $ /2015 FIRST Summer Extended 97.0 $ $ /2015 SECOND Limited $ $ /2015 THIRD Limited 1,755.6 $ ,499.2 $ /2016 FIRST Limited 60.1 $ $ /2016 SECOND Limited $ $ /2016 THIRD Limited 2.0 $ $ /2017 FIRST Limited $ $ /2017 SECOND Limited 14.0 $ $ /2017 THIRD Limited $ $ /2018 FIRST Limited $ $

Monitoring Analytics, LLC 2621 Van Buren Avenue Suite 160 Eagleville, PA 19403 (610)

18 Monitoring Analytics, LLC 2621 Van Buren Avenue Suite 160 Eagleville, PA (610)

Incremental Auction Review

Incremental Auction Review Incremental Auction Senior Task Force February 6, 2017 Joe Bowring John Hyatt Summary A significant amount of replacement capacity is obtained through the RPM Incremental Auctions.