Shiller on Colombian Real Estate

Transcription

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2 Shiller n Clmbian Real Estate Nevertheless, I was nt expecting a bubble stry when I visited Clmbia last mnth. But, nce again, peple there tld me abut an nging realestate bubble, and my driver shwed me arund the seaside resrt twn f Cartagena, pinting ut, with a tne f amazement, several hmes that had recently sld fr millins f dllars. Fr example, the current stry in Clmbia appears t be that the cuntry s gvernment, nw under the well-regarded management f President Juan Manuel Sants, has brught dwn inflatin and interest rates t develped-cuntry levels, while all but eliminating the threat psed by the FARC rebels, thereby injecting new vitality int the Clmbian ecnmy. That is a gd enugh stry t drive a husing bubble. (Prject Syndicate, July, 2013)

3 Banc de ls Republics Real Prices 140 Ttal Husing Index Bgta Index Medellin Index Cali Index Year

4 25,000 Figure 11: Land Values by Neighbrhd in Dwntwn Chicag: ,000 15,000 10,000 5, The Rest f The Suth Lp Randlph-Adams, East f Wells Land Values Nrth f Randlph

5 Nw That s A Bubble Prices in Warmer MSAs Prices in Clder MSAs Year

6 Change in Husing Prices, vs Hustn New Yrk DC Detrit Phenix Las Vegas Change in FHFA Price,

7 Change in FHFA, by Quintile f Ppulatin Density, Nte: Fr MSAs with ppulatins greater than 250,000 in 2010.

8 Price Grwth by Distance t City Centers miles 2-5 miles 5-10 miles ver 10 miles

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10 Average Ppulatin Change, Ppulatin Density Surce: U.S. Census Per Capita Incme, 2000 Ppulatin Change,

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12 The Fate f the Industrial City?

13 Bstn s Reinventin Authr: TWP

14 Average Ppulatin Grwth by Share with BA in 2000 (Quintiles)

15 Per Capita GDP San Jse Las Vega Bakersfi Bstn New Yrk Detrit Atlanta San Fran Share f Adults with B.A.s 2000

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17 The Urban Edge: Spreading Knwledge

18 Lg Per Capita GDP Brazil Thailan Israel Nrway U.S.A. Prtugal Singapr Kyrgyzst PISA MATH SCORE

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20 New Technlgies and the City Pht by Mari Rbert Duran Ortiz

21 Grwth and New Establishments MSA Emplyment Grwth ( ) by Quintiles f Share f Emplyment in New Establishments, Smallest share f emplyment in new establishments are in Quintile 1 drpped utliners <1% and >99%

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23 Share f Cuntries ver 1/3 Urbanized, by GDP per Capita (2012 $) 1960 and 2010 $ $ $ $ $ Surce: Wrld Bank

24 Prt au Prince

25 India Mali Ghana Mldva Suth Africa Rwanda Guatemala Mexic Pland Malaysia France Sweden Indnesia Finland Rmania Russian Egypt, Arab Rep. Brazil Federatin Slvenia United Kingdm Mrcc Japan Bulgaria Australia Nrway Ukraine Germany Canada United States Netherlands Cyprus Argentina Spain Uruguay Italy New Zealand Iraq Thailand Lg f Per Capita GDP

26 The Strength f Favelas

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28 Bringing Clean Water t Nimes Pht by Clenpat

29 Crime in Latin America Caracas 134 hmicides per 100,000 Cali 82 hmicides per 100,000 Detrit 47 hmicides per 100,000 Medellin 38 hmicides per 100,000 (dwn frm 70/100,000 in 2002) Bgta is 17 per 100,000. Ri de Janeir per 100,000 between 2001 and 2011 Sa Pal per 100,000 between 2001 and 2011 On ne level, the declines in hmicide in Clmbia and Brazil are impressive. The wrld needs t change its views f Clmbia and Medellin. On anther level, there is still wrk t d.

30 Picture by FrancBras Prisns and Plicing

31 Ray Kelly vs. Ed Davis: Cmmunity plicing and crruptin RayKelly by David Shankbne Ed Davis by Michael Cumm

32 Supermarket by Wnderlane The Brazil Mdel: The Dentist and the Supermarket

33 Cngestin in Singapre

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35 The Curitiba Innvatin Picture by Marird

36 Image by Scelh86 Medellin Ingenuity

37 The Rise f the Cnsumer City Pht by Jnasl

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40 0 Median Husing Value by Ppulatin Grwth New Yrk Cunty, New Yrk Pitkin Cunty, Clrad Nantucket Cunty, Massachusetts Marin Cunty, Califrnia San Mate Cunty, Califrnia Santa Clara Cunty, Califrnia Ppulatin Grwth,

41 Medellin and Ease f Supplying Hmes Wrld Bank measures the difficulty f building a standard warehuse acrss cuntries. In 2013, Clumbia (Bgta) had 8 prcedures taking 54 days much better than 2007 (110 days) Medellin takes mre time (119 days) but less mney. Brazil has 15 prcedures taking 400 days. Peru has 14 prcedures 173 days. Latin American average is 13 prcedures 216 days. Singapre is 11 prcedures and 26 days.

42 The High Cst f Overregulating Height

43 Image by QuarterCircleS

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45 Climate Change and the City?

46 The Bstn Hypthesis Image by Ramy Raf