April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2

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2 April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 2

3 Buenas Tardes! WELCOME and thank you for joining us! Andrés Felipe Archila President, Colombian Association of MIT We are delighted to receive s! April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 3

4 April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 4

5 PANEL 2: The Future of Transportation Infrastructure in Colombia: Envisioning a National Transportation System Ralph Gakenheimer, MIT 1 st session Lina María Castaño, National Planning Department of Colombia (DNP) Richard de Neufville, MIT Intermission Coffee Break 2 nd session Néstor Roa, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Juan Pablo Bocarejo, Universidad de los Andes Christopher Zegras, MIT Discussion Q&A session with all panelists April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 5

6 Professor of Urban Planning, Emeritus, MIT RALPH GAKENHEIMER (MODERATOR) April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 6

7 Session 1 April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 7

8 Deputy Director, Social Sector, National Planning Department of Colombia (DNP) LINA MARÍA CASTAÑO April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 8

9 NATIONAL PROGRAM OF URBAN TRANSPORT IN COLOMBIA

10 Contents - National Framework Financial Structure Opportunities Challenges

11 National Framework

12 Access to modern infrastructure and equal opportunities remain as a challenge for Colombia Quiality of overall infrastructure Quality of roads Chile Mexico Uruguay Ecuador Brasil Colombia 3.4 Argentina Peru Venezuela Quality of railroad infrastructure Chile Mexico Ecuador Uruguay Peru Argentina Brasil Colombia Venezuela Quality of port infrastructure Mexico Chile Ecuador Peru Brasil Argentina Colombia 1.6 Venezuela Uruguay Chile Uruguay Mexico Ecuador Argentina Peru Colombia 1 = extremely underdeveloped; 7 = extensive and efficient by international standards 3.2 Brasil Venezuela Source: World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report

13 National Development Plan National Framework for Urban Transport Transport Infrastructure Housing and Kindly Cities Guidelines and Strategic Actions Policy and regulation of the Transport Services Competitive Infrastructure and Regional Integration Urban Transport and Mobility Improvement of Accessibility and intermodal conditions Promotion of alternative mechanisms of infrastructure funding Articulation and Enchainment with other sectors

14 National Development Plan National Framework for Urban Transport Urban Transport and Mobility Policy Integrated Mass Transport System Strategic Public Transport Systems Strategy in Small Sizes Cities Population Over Inhabitants Population between y Inhabitants Population under Inhabitants SITP SITR Mobility Master Plan SABT Strategy to improve transport service bring in efficiency and high quality service Multimodal Regional Strategy Territorial Planning Territorial Planning

15 Urban Mobility Projects Summary EIGHT (8) SITM Population Over Inhabitants In preparation: (1) Cúcuta TWELVE (12) SETP Population between y Inhabitants In preparation : (5) Buenaventura, Neiva, Villavicencio, Ibagué y Manizales EIGHT (8) Strategy in small sizes cities Population under Inhabitants (Tunja, Barrancabermeja, Quibdó, Ocaña, Riohacha, Florencia, Yopal y Fusagasugá) EIGHT(8) Mobility Master Plan In preparation: (3) Cartagena, Montería y Fusagasugá SEVEN (7) SATB (Leticia, Arauca, Saravena, Maicao, Ipiales, San Miguel y Puerto Carreño) FOUR (4) SITP (Bogotá, Pereira, Barranquilla y Bucaramanga) FOUR(4) SITR (Caribe, Eje Cafetero, Cundinamarca y Antioquia)

16 New Roads Concessions Contracts CENTER- SOUTH FONADE SOUTH WEST- FONADE CENTER WEST FONADE CARIBBEAN FONADE BARRANQUILLA CARTAGENA SANTA MARTA RIOHACHA Ponedera VALLEDUPAR La Paz PARAGUACHON Cuestecitas Buenavista San Juan ROADS TO PROSPERITY EAST RANGEFONDO ADAPTACION SMALL CONCESSIONS Cruz del Viso Carreto Toluviejo SAN PELAYO CARMEN DE BOLIVAR SINCELEJO SAN ROQUE Estimated Kilometers PALO DE LETRAS NECOCLÍ MONTERIA El Tigre Planeta Rica La Yé Achí Aguachica San Marcos Aguaclara CAUCASIA Simití Ocaña CUCUTA Total Estimated Investment (billions of dollars / Dec 2011) 24,4 BARRANCAB. REMEDIOS B/MANGA Pamplona ARAUCA Santa fé de Ant. Camilo C Bolombolo Tunel de Occidente MEDELLIN Pto. Berrío Barbosa SOGAMOSO TAME PTO CARRENO Current Concessions BUENAVENTURA CALI MANIZALES PEREIRA LA PAILA ARMENIA BUGA CARTAGO La Manuela IBAGUE GIRARDOT PTO. SALGAR ZIPAQUIRA VILLET Sopó A CALERA BOGOTA Cáqueza ESPINAL Sisga TUNJA EL SECRETO VILLAVICENCIO Granada YOPAL PUERTO GAITAN Pto. Arimena New Concessions STDER. QUILICHAO NEIVA POPAYAN CHACHAGÛÍ PASTO MOCOA RUMICHACA

17 Ports concessions SAN ANDRES SANTA MARTA BARRANQUILLA GUAJIRA Dredging of second access canal 19 meters. Cartagena I CARTAGENA TOLU COVEÑAS TURBO Dredging 16 meters. Buenaventura 2013-I BUENAVENTURA TUMACO Source: Infrastructure National Agency - Structuring Vice-presidency

18 Airports Concessions BARRANQUILLA BARRANQUILLA s AIRPORT 2013-II ARMENIA CARTAGO NEIVA ARMENIA, CARTAGO, NEIVA AND POPAYÁN AIRPORTS 2013-II POPAYÁN Source: Infrastructure National Agency - Structuring Vice-presidency

19 Railroad Concessions Santa Marta Dibulla Ciénaga Chiriguaná ESTIMATED KILOMETERS La Mata Cúcuta ESTIMATED INVESTMENT (BILLIONS US$ / DEC 2011) 6.48 La Vizcaína La Felisa Cabañas Pto Berrio Sta Sofía Belencito La Dorada Zipaquirá Zarzal La Tebaida BOGOTÁ Buenaventura Buga Potosí Buenos Aires Granada Actual Concessions Infraestructure Improvements New Projects Source: Infrastructure National Agency - Structuring Vice-presidency

20 Object Fluvial Projects Magdalena s River navigation recovery To recover Magdalena s River navigation using PPP schemes Description Between Puerto Salgar / La Dorada - Bocas de Ceniza. Term: 10 years Works for river canalization OyM activities to guarantee : 4,5 foots on Puerto Salgar/Puerto Berrío stage; 6,0 foots on Puerto Berrío/Barrancabermeja stage; 7 foots on Barrancabermeja/Puente Laureano Gómez stage; and 37,5 foots until Bocas de Ceniza. Project will demand a total investment of 2.09 billions of pesos (US$1,15 millions). On Pre-qualification Current State Forecasted date for opening of bid process: II Trimester of 2013 Source: Cormagdalena

21 Urban mobility projects for the Bogota Cundinamarca s region On feasibility studies Estimated Investment: US$2.500 Millions Estimated length: 20,3 km First line prioritization Bogotá Subway System Infrastructure and implementation system design Commuting Train Estimated investment: US$2.100 Millions Estimated length: 31,1 km Bogota and their surroundings are planning to develop a commuting train system, integrating the city with near towns. On feasibility studies, preliminary information: Length: 81.2 Km. Phase I y II: Technical structuring by ConCol. Empresa Férrea Regional Studies have been in actualization process Process opening: To be defined CONPES document approved 3677 (19/07/2010)

22 Financial Structure

23 Conceptual Idea of the Project Priorization Feasibility Studies + Legal and Regulatory Framework - Public Initiative PPP project - Flowchart Assessment of social and economic issues Technical, Financial and Legal Structuring Risk analysis MHCP Assessment of PPP option - NPD Financial reviewed by Public development Banks Art 27 / 1508 Central government investment Without Central Government Investment First review MHCP - then NPD First is reviewed by MHCP then respective planning department Public Contract Opening of the bidding process PPP Does not require Public $ Requires Public $ Request of fiscal endorsement and approval of annual budget commitments Opening of the PPP bidding process

24 Opportunities

25 Opportunities Rehabilitation and Renewal of Historic Centers Generation of New Centralities Integration of Populations needs and land uses Improve the Articulation between Mobility Master Plans and Local Master Plans

26 Challenges

27 Challenges Technical Institutional Strengthening Implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems Transportation Demand Management Implementation of strategies of mobility in border cities Urban and Regional Integration through the implementation of the mobility strategies

28 Gracias PBX:

29 Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and of Engineering Systems, MIT RICHARD DE NEUFVILLE April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 29

30 Using Flexibility to Increase Value in Transportation Systems Planning MIT Professor Richard de Neufville Engineering Systems + Civil and Environmental Engineering Author: Flexibility in Engineering Design MIT Press, 2011 with Prof. Stefan Scholtes, University of Cambridge UK (about $30; ebook also available)

31 This is the book MIT Press 2011 Available Online

32 Theme for Flexibility Paradigm change in project evaluation, choice From: standard Net Present Values (VPN), ignoring risks (as done by World Bank) To: recognizing actual uncertainties and planning for adaptation to real situations! Flexibility => significant increase in value Using a win-win approach Mitigates risk (downside) -- a win Opens opportunities (upside) more win 2013 Richard de Neufville

33 Outline of Presentation 1. Discussion of Standard Evaluation Procedure for Transportation projects, Engineering Systems in general 2. Flaw of Averages 3. Concept of Alternative Paradigm 4. Example Application in Bogota 2013 Richard de Neufville

34 Standard Evaluation Procedure for Transportation projects, Engineering Systems in general 2013 Richard de Neufville

35 Standard Evaluation Procedure 1. Make a forecast 2. Evaluate alternatives using forecast, finding a unique cash flow 3. Calculate Net Present Value (VPN) or equivalent such as IRR HOWEVER: Future is Uncertain, as are outcomes THEREFORE: Above calculations are misleading! 2013 Richard de Neufville

36 The Flaw of Averages 2013 Richard de Neufville

37 Flaw of Averages Named by Sam Savage ( Flaw of Averages, Wiley, New York, 2009) It is a pun. It integrates two concepts: A mistake => a flaw The concept of the law of averages, that that things balance out on average Flaw consists of assuming that evaluation based on average or most likely conditions give correct answers NOT SO! 2013 Richard de Neufville

38 In Words Average of all the possible outcomes associated with uncertain parameters, does not equal (except if system linear) the value obtained from using the average value of the parameters 2013 Richard de Neufville

39 2013 Richard de Neufville

40 Practical Consequences Unless you work with distribution, your evaluation gives wrong result and wrong results lead to wrong ranking and choice of design design from a realistic description differs often greatly from design from average description This is because gains when things do well, do not balance losses when things do not (sometimes they re more, sometimes less) 2013 Richard de Neufville

41 Concept of Alternative Paradigm 2013 Richard de Neufville

42 New, Flexible Approach to Design Recognizes Uncertainty Analyses Possible Outcomes of Designs Chooses Flexible Designs to Reduce, eliminate downside risks (in general, less ambitious initial projects less to lose) Maximize Upside opportunities (that can expand or change function, when, if, and how seems desirable given future circumstances) Great Increases in Expected Value Routine! 2013 Richard de Neufville

43 Great increase in Expected Value systems with flexibility to adapt to new conditions can greatly increase expected value. With flexibility we can avoid future downside risks (by building smaller with confidence that can expand as needed) profit from new opportunities by appropriate actions Reduce initial capital expenditure (CAPEX). Lower initial CAPEX because less complex at start Lower Present Values, because costs deferred many years (and maybe even avoided) Higher returns, lower cost = A Great Formula 2013 Richard de Neufville

44 HCSC Building in Chicago In , 3000 people were coming to work in the 30-story HCSC building in Chicago, and a 27-story addition was being built right on top of them! The structure was designed in 1990s with extra steel, utilities, elevator shafts, etc. to permit doubling of height. This flexibility was exploited a decade later 2013 Richard de Neufville

45 Here s the Picture Vertical Expansion of Health Care Service Corporation Building, Chicago. Phase 1 (left) and Phase 2 (right) in center of image. Source: Goettsch Partners, 2008 and Pearson and Wittels, Richard de Neufville

46 The Paradox 30-story building with capacity to expand costs more than one without expansion capacity Yet saves money! Why is this? The fair comparison is between 30-story expandable building and what HCSC would build otherwise to meet its long-term needs such as a 40-story building Flexible design saves money 2 ways: Lower initial Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) Deferral, possible avoidance, of expansion costs 2013 Richard de Neufville

47 Example Application: Public Transport in Bogota 2013 Richard de Neufville

48 To BRT or HRT in Bogotá? That is the Question Application of Flexibility in Engineering Design MIT Course ESD.71, December 2012 Andrés Felipe Archila, M.S.T

49 Description, Background, and Motivation New transit corridor in Bogota, Colombia BRT or HRT for 35-km-long Avenida Boyacá Analysis of fixed and flexible alternatives Andrés Archila - MIT

50 Technical Choice El bus? O el tren? Andrés Archila - MIT

51 Usual Financial Analysis (as for World Bank) Calculate NPV (=VPN) with no uncertainty One design Dominates All others [in this case, Big buses] Andrés Archila - MIT

52 Cumulative Probability Evaluation Recognizing Uncertainty Evaluation Recognizing Uncertainty HRT-6 BRT Alternative Choices now Ambiguous [Rail better when traffic is high, worse when traffic is low.] NPV (million $USD) Andrés Archila - MIT

53 Cumulative Probability Evaluation including flexible alternative Valuation including Flexible Design (start with 4 car trains, with stations for 6 cars) Flexible Alternative provides Insurance against downside Risks HRT-6 HRT-F NPV (million $USD) Andrés Archila - MIT

54 Summary 1. Standard Evaluation Procedure for Transportation projects, Engineering Systems in general, is FLAWED 2. It fails to recognize, deal with risks 3. Flexibility is New Alternative Paradigm 4. Helps planners deal proactively with risk: Reduces exposure to downside; Allows for dealing with upside 2013 Richard de Neufville

55 Discussion - Q&A Coffee Break min Session 2 follows April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 55

56 Chief, Transport Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) NÉSTOR ROA April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 56

57 The Transport Sector and the IDB in Latin America Nestor Roa Chief of the Transport Division April 26 th, 2013

58 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

59 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

60 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs Quality Latin America and and the Caribbean the Caribbean Emerging Asia Asia Developed Developed economies Index (1 (1-7 scale) 7 scale) Average Ports Transport Railways Electricity Roads Air transport

61 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs Coverage Bolivia Guyana Paraguay Brasil Nicaragua Perú Colombia Ecuador Chile Belice Costa Rica El Salvador Honduras Haití Suriname Guatemala Argentina Panamá México Venezuela Rep. Dominicana Trinidad y Tobago Bahamas Jamaica Uruguay Barbados Percentage (%) of Paved Roads Source: IDB and WB Paraguay Bolivia Nicaragua Peru Venezuela Ecuador Costa Rica Brazil Argentina Colombia Mexico Dominican Republic Honduras Uruguay Guatemala Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Panama El Salvador Chile Road Quality Roads quality (1=underdeveloped, 7=extensive and efficient) Source: Porter and Schwab (2008).

62 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs Coverage Source: WB, 2013

63 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs Investment Total Public Private

64 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs Private investments need to grow from about 1 percent of GDP to between 2.5 and 3 percent to close the infrastructure gap, which represents some 100,000 million dollars a year.

65 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs The new problem: Urbanization The road bias is changing by demand LAC: the most urbanized region in the world (77% of pop.) -> 85% by 2030 Urban population Urban population (2000)

66 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport sector Priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

67 2. The Inter-American Development Bank Founded in 1959, the IDB is the oldest and largest regional development bank. 48 members: 26 borrowing members and 22 nonborrowing members. From 1961 to the end of 2011, the IDB has approved US$207 billion in loans and guarantees. The IDB obtains its own financial resources from its 48 member countries, borrowings on the financial markets, and trust funds that it administers, and through cofinancing ventures. The IDB s debt rating is AAA.

68 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

69 3. IDB Areas of Intervention

70 3. IDB Support modalities Public Sector Loans and Guarantees (with Sovereign Guarantee) Investment Loans Policy Based Loans Emergency Loans Non-Sovereign Guaranteed Loans and Guarantees Private Sector Loans Public sub-national entities qualified for NSG Inter-American Investment Corporation Multilateral Investment Fund Technical Cooperation: technical studies & project preparation KCPs (Knowledge & Capacity Building Products)

71 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

72 : IDB US$11.6 billion in approved loans and guarantees. Loans by topic Transport operation approvals (USD$ millions) , , ,

73 4. Transport Sector Typical Projects Road expansion /rehabilitation Public transportation (BRTs, Subways) Ports, airports Typical Procurement Aspects Civil works (infrastructure construction, rehabilitation, tunneling, bridges ) Buses, rolling stock, equipment Technical consulting services

74 4.1. Transport Sector -Priorities 2013 Increase road safety in the region Promote sustainable transport Develop Freight logistic operations Promote the integration of regional transportation

75 4.2. Strategic areas in the Transport Sector Road Safety Freight Logistics and Trade Facilitation Regional Environment Sustainable Transport

76 Flagship Projects

77 Support to the implementation of the National Road Safety Policy Colombia (CO-L1111) IDB Financing: US$ 10 million Intervention: Supporting the implementation of the Road Safety National Policy Supporting the creation of the Road Safety National Observatory

78 Norte Grande Roads Infrastructure Program Argentina (AR-L1133) RN 16 IDB Financing: US$300 million Intervention: National Road Network (RVN) and access roads of the Provincial Road Network (RVP) in the Norte Grande region (RNG). RP. 1 Engineering Works (1030km) Road Safety Institutional Strengthening

79 Strategic Public Transportation Systems (SPTS) Colombia (CO-L1091) Estimated Cost: US$380,7 million IDB Financing: US$300 million CTF Financing: US$20 million Intervention: Development of Strategic Public Transportation Systems in four towns (Pasto, Popayan, Armenia and Santa Marta)

80 Quito s Metropolitan Urban Transport System Ecuador (EC-L1111) Estimated Cost: US$1.400 million IDB Financing: US$300 million Intervention: Financing the construction of 22 km of track, 15 stations, rolling stock and equipment for the Metro de Quito.

81 San Francisco-Mocoa Alternate Road Construction Project - Phase I Colombia (CO-L1019) Estimated Cost: US$150 million IDB Financing: US$53 million Intervention: Improvement and construction of a 47 km by-pass

82 Mario Covas Rodoanel Project - Northern Section Brasil (BR-L1296 ) Estimated Cost: US$3.015,23 million IDB Financing: US$1.148,63 million Intervention: North Section of the Mario Covas Beltway of the City of Sao Paulo

83 Programs to Support the National Logistics Policy Colombia (CO-L1090, CO-L1109) IDB Financing: US$300 million (CO-L1090) US$15 million (CO-L1109) Intervention: - Support the development and implementation of the National Logistics Policy

84 Panama Canal Expansion Program Panama (PN-L1032) Estimated Cost: US$5.250 million IDB Financing: US$400 million Intervention: Construction of a third set of locks including lock complexes Deepening of the entrances Deepening and widening of the navigational channels Raising Gatun Lake to its maximum operational level

85 Content 1. Latin America s infrastructure needs 2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) 3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities 4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas 4.3. Flagship Projects 5. Conclusions and Challenges

86 5. Conclusions & Challenges Latin America needs to improve its transport infrastructure and direct its efforts towards integration Improving the region s infrastructure needs a stronger participation from both the public and private sector Parallel and collaborative efforts from the public and private sectors are necessary in the following areas: Extension and maintenance of road network Performance of freight transport by road Ports Freight railways Trade facilitation and border controls Support for better logistics management in small and medium-size businesses

87 5. Conclusions & Challenges Consistence and continuity in national policy formulation is key to enhance effective interventions Multilaterals play an important role in adding value with knowledge sharing and project specific learned lessons

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89 Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad de los Andes JUAN PABLO BOCAREJO April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 89

90 The Future of Transportation Infrastructure in Colombia Juan Pablo Bocarejo, PhD Associate Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering SUR Grupo de Estudios En Sostenibilidad Urbana y Regional 90

91 Infrastructure: The next generation A good investment Legal aspects Environmental aspects Engineering? The infrastructure we need? 91

92 Key Aspects for Improvement (I) A network analysis Isolated projects Uncertain demand Functional vulnerability analysis 92

93 Key Aspects for Improvement (II) Desconexión Total Ig = Desconexión Parcial Scenario Impact ($COP / day) Link 1 Inf VILLAVICENCIO GRANADA 2 Inf VILLAVICENCIO PUERTO LOPEZ 3 Inf PUERTO GAITAN PUERTO LOPEZ 4 Inf PASTO IPIALES 5 Inf BUENAVENTURA BUGA 6 Inf ARAUCA TAME 7 $ 6,604,719,910 TULUA ZARZAL 8 $ 5,982,311,917 BUGA TULUA 9 $ 1,638,775,950 MEDELLIN RIOSUCIO 10 $ 1,338,384,332 MEDELLIN SANTA ROSA DE OSOS 11 $ 1,204,313,657 PUERTO BOYACÁ LA DORADA 12 $ 1,183,006,963 BOGOTA TUNJA 13 $ 999,101,987 BOGOTA IBAGUE 14 $ 978,678,816 CAUCASIA PLANETA RICA 15 $ 956,727,491 ARMENIA IBAGUE 16 $ 937,656,385 MEDELLIN PUERTO BOYACÁ 17 $ 823,159,379 BOGOTA LA DORADA 18 $ 791,224,728 NEIVA GARZON 19 $ 730,867,806 TUNJA DUITAMA 20 $ 730,335,411 CAUCASIA SANTA ROSA DE OSOS 21 $ 669,797,430 BUCARAMANGA BARRANCABERMEJA 22 $ 658,860,229 CUCUTA BUCARAMANGA 23 $ 575,830,125 ANSERMA RIOSUCIO 24 $ 528,623,427 ANSERMA CARTAGO

94 Key Aspects for Improvement (III) Adequate design standards Level of service Design speeds Slopes and curves Vía Bucaramanga- P. Chicamocha 94

95 Key Aspects for Improvement (IV) Road safety (3 E s) Indicators and performance Incentives Standards Enforcement 95

96 Institutional challenges An homogeneous network? Who manages the network? Who enforces the network? Who provides maintenance? Information availability Available capacity to implement investment 20 times higher than previous plans 96

97 Closing remarks Need to have a network approach Need to develop standards and performance objectives Need to introduce vulnerability and redundancy analysis Need to prioritize road safety Need to strengthen institutions that will lead a long term management over the network 97

98 Ford Career Development Associate Professor of Transportation & Urban Planning and Engineering Systems, MIT CHRISTOPHER ZEGRAS (COMMENTS) April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 98

99 Discussion + Q&A April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 99

100 Thank you for joining us! April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 100

101 April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 101

102 Tomorrow April 26, nd Colombian Conference at Harvard/MIT Panel 2 102

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