Monthly Fuel Price Report February 2015

Transcription

1 Monthly Fuel Price Report February March 2015 The RACQ monthly fuel price report presents a summary of the fuel price trends in Queensland for February Key points The average price of ULP in Brisbane was 117.1cpl (5.1cpl higher than January). Brisbane was dearer than Melbourne by 2.0cpl, Adelaide by 1.4cpl and Canberra by 0.4cpl. Unusually, ULP sold in Brisbane was cheaper than Sydney, albeit by 0.1cpl. ers in the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich had the cheapest ULP in February, 1.4cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Ayr was cheapest for Diesel. At 121.1cpl it was 4.8cpl cheaper than Brisbane. The average retail margin on ULP across regional centres was 5.1cpl, 17.8cpl lower than the average margin of 22.9cpl observed in January. This was due to increases in the TGP rather than reductions in the retail price. Following the record high indicative retail margins on Brisbane diesel in January, margins in February fell to a 14 month low of 9.7cpl. The diesel price in Brisbane was 125.9cpl, 7.3cpl lower than January Brisbane diesel was cheaper than Melbourne by 4.7cpl. It was more expensive than Adelaide and Canberra by 4.2cpl. The average price of LPG in Brisbane in February was 68.6cpl, 4.1cpl lower than January. The price difference between retail LPG (in Brisbane) and the benchmark price was 22.0cpl, 4.5cpl lower than January. The fuel excise on petrol and diesel increased on 2 February to 38.9cpl (from 38.6cpl) and excise on LPG increased to 10.2cpl (from 10.1cpl). ULP prices and margins in Brisbane The average price of ULP in February 2015 increased by 5.1cpl to 117.1cpl and the Terminal Gate Price (TGP) increased by 9.2cpl. Indicative Brisbane retail margins for February 2015, at 2.8cpl, were 4.1cpl lower than January, and total margins, at 16.9cpl, were 1.0cpl higher. Date As the first chart overleaf shows, the majority of the cost of a litre of ULP is in the crude oil component, the fuel excise and GST. Oil and fuel company margins are a relatively small proportion of the overall cost, 14% in February Price cycles ULP TGP Brent Crude Oil Singapore MOGAS Price Exchange Rate (A$/US$) Total Feb Jan Dec Q Feb Feb Feb There was no obvious price cycle in February After 83 days without a price hike, a price hike started on 4 February with prices peaking on 9 February. Prices then remained stable until 23 February when another price hike was observed. However, during the intermediate period there was a sharp increase in the TGP, and while the retail price changed very little, retail margins fell steadily each day. Page 1 of 6

2 Sun, 1 Feb Tue, 3 Feb Thu, 5 Feb Sat, 7 Feb Mon, 9 Feb Wed, 11 Feb Fri, 13 Feb Sun, 15 Feb Tue, 17 Feb Thu, 19 Feb Sat, 21 Feb Mon, 23 Feb Wed, 25 Feb Fri, 27 Feb Wholesale Refiner Distribution Costs Excise and GST Brent Crude The chart below displays the average Brisbane retail ULP price, ULP TGP and the indicative retail margins. The retail price is the blue line and the TGP the green line, both plotted against the left hand axis. The retail margin is the red line plotted against the right hand axis. In the period 9 February to 24 February there is little change in the retail price (the blue line remains flat) but an increase in the TGP (the green line raises) and subsequently there is a fall in indicative retail margins (the red line) Thu, 15 Jan Sat, 17 Jan Mon, 19 Jan Wed, 21 Jan Fri, 23 Jan Sun, 25 Jan Tue, 27 Jan Thu, 29 Jan Diesel prices in Brisbane Sat, 31 Jan Mon, 2 Feb Wed, 4 Feb Fri, 6 Feb Sun, 8 Feb Tue, 10 Feb Thu, 12 Feb Sat, 14 Feb Mon, 16 Feb Wed, 18 Feb Fri, 20 Feb Sun, 22 Feb Tue, 24 Feb Thu, 26 Feb Sat, 28 Feb ULP Price ULP TGP The average price of diesel fell by 7.3cpl to 125.9cpl in February However, the TGP increased by 5.7cpl, leading to a fall in margins. Indicative Brisbane retail margins for February were 13.0cpl less than January and 1.7cpl lower than the February 2014 average. Total margins were 10.4cpl lower than the record high observed in January and 1.0cpl less than February Date Diesel TGP Price Brent Crude Oil Singapore Gasoil Price Total Feb Jan Dec Q Feb Feb Feb Page 2 of 6

3 Comparison to other capital cities In February 2015, ULP sold in Brisbane was more expensive compared to Melbourne, Adelaide, and Canberra. Melbourne was 2.0cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Adelaide was 1.4cpl and Canberra was 0.4cpl cheaper. ULP prices in Sydney were effectively the same as Brisbane (0.1cpl dearer). The other capitals were more expensive. Perth was 1.6cpl dearer than Brisbane, Hobart was 6.8cpl dearer and Darwin was 10.6cpl dearer. The table below presents the average February 2015 prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Australia s capital cities, with the change compared to January 2015 in parentheses. City ULP ULP * Diesel Diesel * Adelaide (9.9) 2.1 (1.8) (-4.0) 5.4 (-8.9) Brisbane (5.1) 2.8 (-3.2) (-7.3) 9.7 (-12.2) Canberra (-5.9) 2.3 (-14.3) (-4.0) 5.4 (-8.9) Darwin (-7.7) 10.5 (-16.0) (-5.6) 7.3 (-10.5) Hobart (-4.6) 5.1 (-12.9) (-8.2) 13.2 (-12.5) Melbourne (7.1) 1.2 (-1.2) (-6.2) 9.2 (-11.4) Perth (3.9) 4.8 (-4.4) (-6.2) 6.8 (-11.0) Sydney (10.5) 2.8 (2.1) (-6.0) 13.2 (-10.8) * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs (assumed to be the same as Brisbane: 1.12cpl). The TGP varies between cities. The price of diesel in Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and Darwin was cheaper than Brisbane; the other capitals were more expensive. Diesel sold in Adelaide and Canberra was 4.2cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Perth was 3.3cpl cheaper, Darwin was 2.0cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Sydney was 3.4cpl dearer than Brisbane, Melbourne 4.7cpl dearer and Hobart 6.1cpl dearer. Fuel prices across Queensland The table below presents the average February 2015 prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Queensland localities, with the change compared to January 2015 in parentheses. Locality ULP Indicative ULP * Diesel Indicative Diesel * Brisbane (5.1) 2.8 (-3.2) (-7.3) 9.7 (-12.2) Gold Coast (2.2) 1.9 (-6.1) (-8.0) 10.2 (-12.8) Sunshine Coast (-1.3) 0.2 (-9.6) (-5.2) 7.9 (-10.0) Atherton (-9.2) 8.0 (-18.4) nd nd Ayr (-0.6) -1.6 (-11.1) (-1.9) 0.8 (-8.6) Biloela (-6.9) 2.1 (-16.4) (-8.4) 3.3 (-14.2) Blackall (-4.9) nd (-9.3) nd Blackwater (-9.9) 1.1 (-19.4) (-8.9) 8.1 (-14.7) Bowen (-8.1) 4.7 (-18.6) (-7.2) 4.5 (-13.9) Bundaberg (-3.6) 0.7 (-11.9) (-6.4) 3.4 (-11.2) Cairns (-8.6) 10.3 (-17.9) (-9.4) 12.0 (-15.1) Charleville (-9.6) -4.9 (-17.9) (-7.7) 1.3 (-12.5) Charters Towers (-8.5) 3.3 (-19.1) (-4.4) 9.8 (-11.1) Childers (-3.8) nd (-7.0) nd Cloncurry (-11.1) 5.6 (-21.6) (-9.7) 9.4 (-16.4) Cunnamulla (-5.4) 25.2 (-13.7) (-6.8) 22.2 (-11.6) Dalby (-6.7) 5.5 (-15.0) (-7.5) 11.3 (-12.3) Emerald (-7.2) 3.8 (-16.7) (-9.1) 9.3 (-14.9) Gladstone (-9.3) 2.3 (-18.8) (-6.5) 9.8 (-12.4) Page 3 of 6

4 Locality ULP Indicative ULP * Diesel Indicative Diesel * Goondiwindi (-3.6) 12.0 (-11.9) (-5.9) 6 (-10.7) Gympie (0.6) 5.1 (-7.7) (-0.7) 6.8 (-5.5) Hervey Bay (-3.3) 8.7 (-11.6) (-2.6) 13.8 (-7.4) Ingham (-8) nd (-8.2) nd Innisfail (-9.4) 6.7 (-18.7) (-10.4) 7.9 (-16.1) Ipswich (1.1) 1.0 (-7.2) (-7.2) 10.7 (-12.0) Kingaroy (-4.2) 9.4 (-12.5) (-4.7) 8.1 (-9.5) Longreach (-10.9) 6.5 (-20.4) (-9.4) 6.2 (-15.2) Mackay (-8.1) -1.6 (-17.7) (-6.5) 10.7 (-12.5) Mareeba (-11.0) 12.1 (-20.2) (-10.8) 15.5 (-16.5) Maryborough (-1.7) 5.3 (-10.0) (-2.2) 6.7 (-7.0) Miles (-4.1) nd (-5.8) nd Moranbah (-7.0) 5.1 (-16.6) (-6.1) 8.2 (-12.1) Mount Isa (-3.8) 12.1 (-14.3) (-5.8) 11.1 (-12.5) Rockhampton (-10.6) 3.3 (-20.1) (-8.5) 11.5 (-14.3) Roma (-13.9) 8.8 (-22.2) (-8.9) 14.6 (-13.7) Toowoomba (-10.6) 0.8 (-18.9) (-5.1) 11.0 (-9.9) Townsville (-9.4) -0.1 (-19.9) (-8.5) 5.1 (-15.2) Tully (-10.2) nd (-11.0) nd Warwick (-5.1) 2.0 (-13.4) (-5.7) 8.7 (-10.5) Weipa nd nd (0.0) 44.5 (-5.7) Whitsunday nd nd (-5.3) nd Yeppoon (-11.7) 0.8 (-21.3) (-11.7) 4.8 (-17.5) * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs. The TGP and freight costs vary between cities. This indicative margin is calculated on the monthly average TGP and retail price. A time lag is not included in this calculation. The Sunshine Coast and Ipswich had Queensland s cheapest ULP in February 2015, both 1.4cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Toowoomba was the next cheapest followed by the Gold Coast and Mackay, 0.9cpl, 0.5cpl and 0.4cpl cheaper than Brisbane respectively. Indicative retail margins decreased in all centres in Queensland. This decrease was due to the lag in retail price movements following earlier TGP increases. Ayr had the cheapest diesel in Queensland (4.8cpl cheaper than Brisbane), followed by Childers (4.7cpl lower) and Biloela (3.3cpl lower). Diesel sold in Bundaberg, Townsville, Gympie, Ingham, Yeppoon, Maryborough, Bowen, Sunshine Coast and Charleville was also cheaper than Brisbane. Fuel Excise Following the reintroduction of fuel excise indexation, excise was increased on 2 February in line with the CPI. Excise on petrol and diesel increased from 38.6cpl to 38.9cpl. Excise on LPG increased from 10.1cpl to 10.2cpl. Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) The average price of LPG in Brisbane fell by 4.1cpl in February 2015 to 68.6cpl. The Brisbane LPG price remains inflated compared to historic prices. The average difference between the Brisbane retail LPG price (excluding excise and GST) and the international benchmark price the Saudi Aramco Contract Price (the Saudi CP) in February 2015 was 22.0cpl, 3.2cpl greater than in February The Saudi CP for February 2015 is 33.1cpl. This is 3.2cpl greater than January 2014, but remains one of the lowest contract prices since December Page 4 of 6

5 The chart below displays the retail price of LPG in Brisbane (the blue line) and Saudi CP (the red line) for the past six months Mon, 2 Mar 2015 Mon, 23 Feb 2015 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 Mon, 9 Feb 2015 Mon, 2 Feb 2015 Mon, 26 Jan 2015 Mon, 19 Jan 2015 Mon, 12 Jan 2015 Mon, 5 Jan 2015 Mon, 29 Dec 2014 Mon, 22 Dec 2014 Mon, 15 Dec 2014 Mon, 8 Dec 2014 Mon, 1 Dec 2014 Mon, 24 Nov 2014 Mon, 17 Nov 2014 Mon, 10 Nov 2014 Mon, 3 Nov 2014 Mon, 27 Oct 2014 Mon, 20 Oct 2014 Mon, 13 Oct 2014 Mon, 6 Oct 2014 Mon, 29 Sep 2014 Mon, 22 Sep 2014 Mon, 15 Sep 2014 Mon, 8 Sep 2014 Mon, 1 Sep 2014 LPG Saudi CP Global trends, oil price and the benchmark petrol price Following the six-year record low observed in January (A$61.8/bbl), the price of Brent crude oil in Australian dollars increased in February. At an average price of A$75.0/bbl, Brent increased in value by 20%. Brent started the month selling for A$68.2/bbl (US$48.8/bbl) and increased steadily to end the month selling for A$79.6/bbl (US$62.0/bbl). The Singapore MOGAS price and the Tapis Crude Oil price followed the trend set by Brent. The Australian dollar was stable compared to the US$ in February. It started the month buying US$ and ended the month at US$ The graph below displays the average Brisbane retail (the blue line) and TGP (the red line) prices, the daily Brent crude oil price (the orange line), the weekly Tapis crude oil (the green line) the weekly MOGAS price (the purple line) and the US$/A$ exchange rate (the teal line) for the past six months. The ULP retail and wholesale, Brent, Tapis and Singapore wholesale MOGAS prices are plotted against the left axis in cents per litre (A$) and the exchange rate is plotted against the righthand axis in A$ per US$ ULP TGP ULP Brent Crude MOGAS 30 Mon, 23 Feb Mon, 16 Feb Mon, 9 Feb Mon, 2 Feb Mon, 26 Jan Mon, 19 Jan Mon, 12 Jan Mon, 5 Jan Mon, 29 Dec Mon, 22 Dec Mon, 15 Dec Mon, 8 Dec Mon, 1 Dec Mon, 24 Nov Mon, 17 Nov Mon, 10 Nov Mon, 3 Nov Mon, 27 Oct Mon, 20 Oct Mon, 13 Oct Mon, 6 Oct Mon, 29 Sep Mon, 22 Sep Mon, 15 Sep Mon, 8 Sep Mon, 1 Sep 0.3 Tapis Crude US$/AU$ Exchange Rate Outlook The price of Brent strengthened throughout February. The exceptionally low price observed in January led to a drop in oil production, especially in the US. This, in turn led to the oil price increase. Page 5 of 6

6 The strengthening oil price may further increase the monthly average retail price of fuel, although this may not be clearly evident in metropolitan Queensland where fluctuations in retail margins (the price cycle) have a greater impact on day-to-day price movements. The next monthly fuel price report will be released in early April. For more information about recent movements in retail fuel prices, please view RACQ s Fair Fuel Price service at Data sources All data presented in this report are RACQ calculations using MotorMouth.com.au, FUELtrac, RBA, ATO, AIP, Bloomberg.com, BP, Viva Energy, Caltex, Mobil, United, Freedom and Puma data. Page 6 of 6