Monthly Fuel Price Report October 2014

Transcription

1 Monthly Fuel Price Report October November 2014 The RACQ monthly fuel price report presents a summary of the fuel price trends in Queensland for October Key points The average October price of Brisbane ULP (146.1cpl) was 1.6cpl higher than September (144.5cpl). The average price of ULP in Brisbane was the most expensive of the larger capital cities. It was more expensive than Adelaide by 6.6cpl, Melbourne by 2.9cpl, Sydney by 1.5cpl and Perth by 1.1cpl. The diesel price in Brisbane was 151.2cpl, 1.4cpl lower than September. Brisbane diesel was 2.9cpl dearer than Adelaide, 2.8cpl dearer than Melbourne and 1.6cpl dearer than Sydney. The Sunshine Coast was the cheapest Queensland city to buy ULP in October, with an average retail price of 143.4cpl (2.7cpl cheaper than Brisbane). Ayr was cheapest for Diesel, with an average retail price of 143.9cpl, 7.3cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Total margins on both ULP and diesel were high in October. A record high daily total ULP margin (refinery, wholesale and retail) of 24.2cpl was observed on 21 October October average total margins were 23.3cpl, the second highest on record. total margins for diesel in Brisbane were the highest on record, at 28.8cpl. October indicative retail margins of diesel in Brisbane, at 16.3cpl, were the highest on record and a record high daily retail margin of 18.6cpl was observed on 24 October The LPG benchmark price for November is 6.8cpl lower than the October price. RACQ hopes to see retailers lower the retail price by a similar amount and pass these savings on to motorists. ULP prices and margins in Brisbane The average price of ULP in October increased by 1.6cpl to 146.1cpl and the Terminal Gate Price (TGP) fell by 2.6cpl. Indicative Brisbane retail margins for October were 4.3cpl greater than September, and total margins were 4.9cpl greater at 23.3cpl. This was the second highest monthly average for total margins observed in Brisbane. The record highest was 23.8cpl, observed in April Date ULP Retail Price TGP Brent Crude Oil Singapore MOGAS Price Exchange Rate (A$/US$) Retail Total Oct Sep Aug Q Oct Oct Oct On Tuesday, 21 October, indicative retail margins on ULP sold in Brisbane reached a new record high of 24.2cpl, 2.2cpl higher than the previous record of 22.0cpl (observed on 12 August 2014). As the chart below shows, the majority of the cost of a litre of ULP is in the crude oil component, the fuel excise and GST. Page 1 of 6

2 Fri, 31 Oct Thu, 30 Oct Wed, 29 Oct Tue, 28 Oct Mon, 27 Oct Sun, 26 Oct Sat, 25 Oct Fri, 24 Oct Wed, 22 Oct Tue, 21 Oct Mon, 20 Oct Sun, 19 Oct Sat, 18 Oct Fri, 17 Oct Thu, 16 Oct Wed, 15 Oct Tue, 14 Oct Mon, 13 Oct Sun, 12 Oct Sat, 11 Oct Fri, 10 Oct Wed, 8 Oct Tue, 7 Oct Mon, 6 Oct Sun, 5 Oct Sat, 4 Oct Fri, 3 Oct Thu, 2 Oct Wed, 1 Oct Retail Wholesale Refiner Distribution Costs Excise and GST Brent Crude Price cycles Two partial cycles were observed in October. The first started on 5 September and ended on 13 October. At 39 days, this was the longest price cycle observed in Queensland. For the first 12 days in October the average ULP retail price was lower than the average TGP. During this time the TGP was experiencing a local high point, and by the end of the month it had fallen by 9 cents. The second cycle started on 14 October and is on-going at the time of writing. The chart below shows the daily average ULP prices for Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney compared to the average TGP for all five capital cities Sun, 2 Nov Fri, 31 Oct Wed, 29 Oct Mon, 27 Oct Sat, 25 Oct Tue, 21 Oct Sun, 19 Oct Fri, 17 Oct Wed, 15 Oct Mon, 13 Oct Sat, 11 Oct Tue, 7 Oct Sun, 5 Oct Fri, 3 Oct Wed, 1 Oct Mon, 29 Sep Sat, 27 Sep Tue, 23 Sep Sun, 21 Sep Fri, 19 Sep Wed, 17 Sep Mon, 15 Sep Sat, 13 Sep Tue, 9 Sep Sun, 7 Sep Fri, 5 Sep Wed, 3 Sep Mon, 1 Sep Brisbane Adelaide Melbourne Perth Sydney TGP The chart below shows the daily average ULP prices for Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and the TGP. In October average prices for Brisbane and the Gold Coast were similar at 146.1cpl and 146.3cpl respectively, and the Sunshine Coast was slightly cheaper at 143.4cpl Sun, 2 Nov Fri, 31 Oct Wed, 29 Oct Mon, 27 Oct Sat, 25 Oct Tue, 21 Oct Sun, 19 Oct Fri, 17 Oct Wed, 15 Oct Mon, 13 Oct Sat, 11 Oct Tue, 7 Oct Sun, 5 Oct Fri, 3 Oct Wed, 1 Oct Mon, 29 Sep Sat, 27 Sep Tue, 23 Sep Sun, 21 Sep Fri, 19 Sep Wed, 17 Sep Mon, 15 Sep Sat, 13 Sep Tue, 9 Sep Sun, 7 Sep Fri, 5 Sep Wed, 3 Sep Mon, 1 Sep Brisbane Gold Coast Sunshine Coast TGP In mid-october during the price-hike phase, the pricing patterns of the three cities diverged. Prices on the Sunshine Coast did not reach the high level observed in Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The Page 2 of 6

3 Sunshine Coast price was then slow to fall and, at the time of writing, the average ULP price on the Sunshine Coast was 5cpl greater than Brisbane. On the Gold Coast the price rose to the same level as Brisbane but has been slow to fall. At the time of writing, the average Gold Coast ULP price was 6cpl greater than Brisbane. Diesel prices in Brisbane The average price of diesel fell by 1.4cpl to 151.2cpl in October However, the TGP fell by 5.2cpl, leading to a substantial increase in margins. Indicative Brisbane retail margins for October were 3.8cpl greater than September, and total margins were 2.1cpl higher. The indicative retail margins and total margins on Brisbane diesel in October, at 16.3cpl and 28.8cpl respectively, were the highest on record. Date Diesel Retail Price TGP Price On Friday, 24 October indicative retail margins on diesel sold in Brisbane reached a new record high of 18.6cpl, 1.6cpl higher than the previous record of 17.0cpl (observed 24 April 2013). Comparison to other capital cities Brent Crude Oil In October, ULP sold in Brisbane was more expensive compared to Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth. Adelaide was 6.6cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Melbourne was 2.9cpl cheaper, Sydney was 1.5cpl cheaper and Perth was 1.1cpl cheaper than Brisbane. The other capitals were more expensive. Canberra was 5.2cpl dearer than Brisbane, Hobart was 9.1cpl dearer and Darwin was 20.9cpl dearer. Despite a 6.1cpl fall in the ULP price, Darwin remained dearer than all monitored Queensland regional centres, except Cloncurry and Weipa. The table below presents the average October 2014 prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Australia s capital cities, with the change compared to September in parentheses. City ULP Price ULP Retail * Singapore Gasoil Price Diesel Price Retail Diesel Retail * Adelaide (-1.9) 3.6 (-0.5) (-2.0) 12.4 (1.9) Brisbane (1.7) 10.6 (3.9) (-1.4) 16.3 (3.5) Canberra (-1.8) 14.8 (-0.5) (-2.1) 16.7 (1.6) Darwin (-6.1) 27.2 (-4.5) nd nd Total Oct Sep Aug Q Oct Oct Oct Hobart (-2.6) 14.5 (-0.8) (-2.6) 18.9 (1.7) Melbourne (3.7) 7.3 (5.2) (-1.3) 11.4 (1.6) Perth (0.6) 8.9 (1.9) (-2.2) 17.4 (1.6) Sydney (3.8) 8.1 (4.9) (-1.1) 13.4 (2.6) * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs (assumed to be the same as Brisbane: 1.12cpl). The TGP varies between cities. The price of diesel in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney was cheaper than Brisbane; the other capitals were more expensive. Diesel sold in Adelaide was 2.9cpl cheaper than Brisbane, Melbourne was 2.8cpl cheaper and Sydney was 1.6cpl cheaper. Canberra was 1.7cpl dearer than Brisbane, Perth was 2.0cpl dearer and Hobart 8.3cpl dearer. There was no average diesel price for Darwin due to an error in data collection. Page 3 of 6

4 Fuel prices across Queensland The table below presents the average October prices and retail margins on ULP and diesel for Queensland localities, with the change compared to September in parentheses. Locality ULP Price Indicative ULP Retail * Diesel Price Indicative Diesel Retail * Brisbane (1.7) 10.6 (3.9) (-1.4) 16.3 (3.5) Gold Coast (5.8) 10.4 (8.0) (-1.6) 17.0 (3.3) Sunshine Coast (4.6) 6.7 (6.8) (-2.1) 15.2 (2.8) Atherton (-0.4) 19.0 (1.2) nd nd Ayr (2.4) 5.4 (4.6) (-1.9) 5.7 (2.9) Biloela (-0.2) 8.1 (1.9) (-0.6) 12.2 (4.7) Blackall (-0.4) nd (-2.4) nd Blackwater (-0.3) 14.7 (1.9) (-3.2) 12.1 (2.1) Bowen (-0.2) 14.0 (2.0) (0.4) 7.9 (5.3) Bundaberg (-1.9) 11.2 (0.3) (-3.3) 11.4 (1.6) Cairns (-0.9) 18.6 (0.7) (-3.3) 22.6 (1.0) Charleville (0.0) 15.4 (2.2) (0.0) 20.1 (4.9) Charters (-0.4) 15.4 (1.8) (-2.1) 15.4 (2.7) Towers Childers (-2.0) nd (-2.2) nd Cloncurry (-1.0) 24.4 (1.1) (-4.5) 26.3 (0.4) Cunnamulla (0.0) 19.5 (2.2) (-0.1) 22.5 (4.8) Dalby (-4.1) 11.2 (-1.9) (-2.5) 15.2 (2.4) Emerald (-0.3) 11.3 (1.9) (-1.5) 12.5 (3.9) Gladstone (-0.6) 14.9 (1.5) (-3.2) 14.2 (2.2) Goondiwindi (-1.8) 12.2 (0.4) (-2.2) 12.5 (2.7) Gympie (-0.9) 10.8 (1.3) (-2.5) 11.4 (2.4) Hervey Bay (-0.5) 10.5 (1.7) (-2.3) 14.0 (2.6) Ingham (-1.4) nd (-1.5) nd Innisfail (-0.7) 17.3 (0.9) (-4.6) 18.8 (-0.3) Ipswich (0.2) 10.1 (2.4) (-1.1) 16.6 (3.8) Kingaroy (0.0) 14.7 (2.2) (-2.6) 13.6 (2.3) Longreach (-0.5) 18.8 (1.6) (-0.3) 20.3 (5.0) Mackay (-1.9) 8.6 (0.3) (-1.6) 15.8 (3.9) Mareeba (-0.6) 17.3 (0.9) (-1.1) 23.8 (3.2) Maryborough (-0.1) 11.2 (2.1) (-2.7) 12.1 (2.2) Miles (0.5) nd (-3.3) nd Moranbah (-1.5) 15.2 (0.7) (-2.9) 19.1 (2.6) Mount Isa (0.0) 12.1 (2.2) (-0.8) 13.7 (4.0) Rockhampton (-0.3) 13.9 (1.9) (-2.3) 14.8 (3.1) Roma (-0.7) 18.5 (1.5) (-0.7) 16.4 (4.2) Toowoomba (-1.2) 11.6 (1.0) (-2.1) 18.0 (2.8) Townsville (0.0) 12.1 (2.1) (-1.6) 13.4 (3.2) Tully (-1.1) nd (-5.9) nd Warwick (-0.1) 9.8 (2.1) (-2.1) 13.3 (2.8) Weipa (0.0) 30.1 (1.6) (0.0) 26.2 (4.3) Whitsunday nd nd (-0.7) nd Yeppoon (-0.5) 13.0 (1.7) (-2.9) 12.7 (2.5) Page 4 of 6

5 * The retail margin is the average retail price minus the average local TGP and local freight costs. The TGP and freight costs vary between cities. This indicative margin is calculated on the monthly average TGP and retail price. A time lag is not included in this calculation. The Sunshine Coast had Queensland s cheapest ULP in October At an average of 143.4cpl it was 2.7cpl cheaper than Brisbane. Ayr was also cheaper than Brisbane by 1.0cpl. All other centres were dearer than Brisbane. Ayr had the cheapest diesel in Queensland (7.3cpl cheaper than Brisbane), followed by Bowen (4.7cpl lower) and Gympie (3.6cpl lower). Diesel sold in Childers, Maryborough, Warwick, Bundaberg, Biloela, Townsville, Hervey Bay, Ingham and Kingaroy was also cheaper than Brisbane. Indicative ULP retail margins in regional Queensland in October were higher than those in September for every centre except Dalby. Diesel retail margins were higher for every centre without exception. Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) The average price of LPG in Brisbane fell by 0.7cpl in October to 77.7cpl The Brisbane LPG price remains inflated compared to historic margins. The average difference between the Brisbane retail LPG price (excluding excise and GST) and the international benchmark price the Saudi Aramco Contract Price (the Saudi CP) in October was 17.4cpl, 3.4cpl greater than the difference in November 2013 (14.0cpl). The Saudi CP for November is 36.5cpl. This is 6.8cpl lower than October 2014 and the lowest since July The chart below displays the retail price of LPG in Brisbane (the blue line) and Saudi CP (the red line) for the past six months Thu, 30 Oct Thu, 16 Oct Thu, 2 Oct Thu, 18 Sep Thu, 4 Sep Thu, 28 Aug Thu, 21 Aug Thu, 14 Aug Thu, 7 Aug Thu, 31 Jul Thu, 24 Jul Thu, 17 Jul Thu, 10 Jul Thu, 3 Jul Thu, 26 Jun Thu, 19 Jun Thu, 12 Jun Thu, 5 Jun Thu, 29 May Thu, 22 May Thu, 15 May Thu, 8 May Thu, 1 May LPG Saudi CP Global trends, oil price and the benchmark petrol price The Australian dollar traded in a tight range compared the US$ in October. It started the month buying US$ and ended the month at US$ The price of Brent crude oil in Australian dollars fell in October. Brent started the month selling for A$110.05/bbl (US$95.67/bbl) and ended the month selling for A$97.94/bbl (US$86.24/bbl). The price of Brent lost 13.4% of its value in the first two weeks of October. Brent fell to a low of A$95.3/bbl (US$83.74/bbl) on 16 October and fell below A$100/bbl for the first time since May The Brent price stabilised and strengthened marginally in the second half of October. The Singapore MOGAS price and the Tapis Crude Oil price followed the trend set by Brent. The graph below displays the average Brisbane retail (the blue line) and TGP (the red line) prices, the daily Brent crude oil price (the orange line), the weekly Tapis crude oil (the green line) the Page 5 of 6

6 weekly MOGAS price (the purple line) and the US$/A$ exchange rate (the teal line) for the past six months. The ULP retail and wholesale, Brent, Tapis and MOGAS prices are plotted against the left axis in cents per litre (A$) and the exchange rate is plotted against the right-hand axis in A$ per US$ Thu, 30 Oct Thu, 16 Oct Thu, 2 Oct Thu, 18 Sep Thu, 4 Sep Thu, 28 Aug Thu, 21 Aug Thu, 14 Aug Thu, 7 Aug Thu, 31 Jul Thu, 24 Jul Thu, 17 Jul Thu, 10 Jul Thu, 3 Jul Thu, 26 Jun Thu, 19 Jun Thu, 12 Jun Thu, 5 Jun Thu, 29 May Thu, 22 May Thu, 15 May Thu, 8 May Thu, 1 May ULP TGP ULP Brent Crude MOGAS Tapis Crude US$/AU$ Exchange Rate Outlook Since the beginning of 2014 the price of Brent Crude Oil (in A$) has fallen by 21% or A$26.4. The price of oil is likely to continue to fall in November. Higher levels of oil production (especially in the US) and poor global economic performance leading to lower demands for oil, are the major factors helping to lower the international oil price. These appear to be overshadowing current international geopolitical events that would usually lead to price increases. The Federal Government recently announced the reintroduction fuel excise indexation. The first increase will be enforced on 10 November, when excise will increase from 38.14cpl to 38.6cpl. For a Queensland driver travelling average distance and with average fuel consumption this will lead to an increase in fuel costs of $8.30 per annum. Subsequently excise will be increased, in line with the CPI, bi-annually (on 1 February and 1 August). Assuming current CPI (2.2%), the increase in February 2015 will lead to a further $7.70 per annum. These increases will continue to accumulate. The next monthly fuel price report will be released in early December For more information about recent movements in retail fuel prices, please view RACQ s Fair Fuel Price service at Data sources All data presented in this report are RACQ calculations using MotorMouth.com.au, FUELtrac, RBA, ATO, AIP, Bloomberg.com, BP, Shell, Viva Energy, Caltex, Mobil, United, Freedom and Puma data. Page 6 of 6