Source Market Insights: Indonesia

Transcription

1 Source Market Insights: Indonesia Code TT0030MI 2015

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Snapshot Outbound Trips by Purpose Outbound Spending Mode of Transport Main Destination Markets Destination Focus; Singapore Destination Focus; Saudi Arabia Visa Policies Market Data 2

3 SNAPSHOT Indonesia s robust economy is increasing consumer confidence among the outbound market Under President Joko Widodo in 2014, the Indonesian economy recovered from a brief post-commodity boom slow down. Indonesia is now one of the strongest growing economies in Asia. The government has introduced reforms in investment licensing to encourage the growth of a diversified economy, meaning that the economic outlook looks robust for the foreseeable future. With this, the middle-income section of the population is expected to double in size by 2020, and outbound trips will increase from 8.6 million in 2014 to 12.5 million by Table 1 Key Statistics, 2014 Total Population million GDP per capita US$3,354 GDP growth 5% Total outbound trips 8.6 million Total outbound expenditure US$11.1 billion Average length of outbound trip 6.5 nights While consumer confidence continues to grow in Indonesia, this has been matched by an increase in the frequency of Low Cost Carrier flights in the region, to nearby destinations such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Macau, Hong Kong, and the Philippines. Following the removal of fuel subsidies and government reforms in investments, the World Bank forecasts that Indonesia s GDP will grow by 6% annually over the forecast period. According to Bank Indonesia, the country s consumer confidence increased by 3.7 points, reaching point in January This is reflected in outbound expenditure, which has grown consistently over the past few years, to total US$11 billion in 2014, and is expected to reach US$16 billion by Singapore is the top destination for outbound Indonesians. The removal of the exit tax in 2005 has spurred a growth in arrivals to Singapore. Additionally the country is easily accessible for Indonesians keen on making short and frequent trips to Singapore. 3

4 OUTBOUND TRIPS BY PURPOSE Outbound tourism continues to grow with rising disposable income Outbound trips recorded a healthy growth over the last six years, driven by the growing middle class (74 million middle-class and affluent consumers), an increasing number of wealthy people (increased by 20% in 2012), and expanding household income (CAGR of 10% during ). In addition, due to the attractive growth of outbound tourism, countries such as New Zealand are improving air connectivity to Indonesia, to attract travelers. This is a key factor for growing interest among Indonesians for outbound travel, although outbound trips (8.6 million in 2014) are in no way close to domestic trips (25.3 million). Furthermore, the majority of the wealthy population speaks good English. Growing affordability due to an increase in the frequency of LCC flights to nearby destinations such as Malaysia will continue to support growth. Arrivals to Japan will increase due to the relaxation of visa requirements for Indonesians in International departures are projected to reach 12.5 million in Leisure the major purpose of outbound travel Indonesia s GDP per capita stood at US$3,533 in 2014, far below the US$15,000 threshold suggested by Boston Consultancy Group, for mass demand for long-haul leisure tourism. In line with this, longhaul trips constitute only a small portion (approximately 15% of trips are outside Asia-Pacific) of overall outbound trips. No country from Europe or the Americas was in the top-10 destination list in Leisure is the predominant purpose of travel, while business trips had a 15% share in VFR is not a prime reason for travel, despite the fact that approximately 50% of trips were to two neighboring countries: Singapore and Malaysia. Figure 1: Outbound trips, by purpose of visit, (in 000s) Source: Canadean,, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Table 2: Outbound trips by purpose of visit (%) Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Business 14% 12% Leisure 60% 63% VFR 17% 17% Other personal 9% 9% 4

5 OUTBOUND SPENDING Outbound expenditure will continue to grow with rise in trips Outbound expenditure has demonstrated strong growth over the last few years, in line with the increasing trend of international departures. Expenditure totaled US$11 billion in 2014 and the strong growth trend is expected to continue over the forecast period, to reach US$16 billion by During outbound trips, Indonesians spend a significant amount (approximately one-third of the total amount, the largest share among all categories) on retail, which includes activities such as shopping. According to a survey conducted by Singapore Tourism Board in 2011, 86% of respondents (Indonesians) shopped when they were in Singapore (Singapore topped the Indonesian outbound list with 2.3 million trips in 2014) Indonesia is one of the highest spenders in Southeast Asia due to more days per trip Indonesia is one of the highest spenders in Southeast Asia. Their spending per overseas trip is high when compared to more developed, neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. This is due to the fact that the number of days per outbound trip in Indonesia (6.5 nights in 2014) is higher than Singapore (4.5 nights). However, outbound spend per day in Indonesia (US$198 in 2014) is less than in Singapore (US$246) because Singapore is far more developed than Indonesia and its GDP per capita is also one of the highest in Asia. Furthermore, outbound spending per trip has been declining over the past few years, as the average number of nights spent on international trips has been decreasing since 2008 (the number fell to 6.5 in 2014, from 10.6 nights in 2008). Figure 2: Outbound expenditure (in US$ million) Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, UNWTO, Figure 3: Average outbound spending per resident Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism 5

6 MODE OF TRANSPORT Air and sea primary modes of transport Air is the predominant mode of transport for outbound travel in Indonesia, accounting for 67% of departures in Trips to Saudi Arabia, the third largest outbound destination (mainly religious trips), are completely through air, and the state-owned carrier Garuda and Saudi, an airline based in Saudi Arabia, dominates this route. Sea is another key mode of transport (29% share), as the country is an archipelago and shares oversea borders with Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, which are key outbound tourist destinations. Prior to the abolition of departure tax to visit Singapore in 2005, Indonesians preferred to take the ferry from Batam (a city in Indonesia), but after the tax removal, customers prefer direct flight. Previously, the Indonesian government collected US$111 exit tax on citizens travelling abroad by air, US$56 for those travelling by sea, and US$33 by land. Land accounted for 4.7% share as Indonesia shares land border with Malaysia and Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea. There is no rail network connecting Indonesia to its neighboring countries. LCCs have strong presence in Indonesia LCCs have a strong presence in Indonesia, for both domestic and international routes. The market leader in international air travel is an LCC (Indonesia AirAsia), and there are LCCs connecting Indonesia to various countries including Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Macau, Hong Kong, and the Philippines. Airlines have also expanded; for instance, Malindo Air, Lion Air s Malaysian subsidiary, introduced new five times weekly flights for Pekanbaru-Melaka from November 2014, and AirAsia introduced twice weekly flights from March 2015, for the Kuala Lumpur -Pontianak, and Johor Bahru-Medan routes. Figure 4: Outbound trips by mode of transport (in 000s) Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Figure 5: Company market share by passengers carried 40% 46% 6% 7% 9% 17% 18% 15% 13% 13% 9% Source: Canadean, KEMENTERIAN PERHUBUNGAN - REPUBLIK, Company Information 7% Inner circle 2013 Outer circle 2014 Indonesia AirAsia Garuda AirAsia Singapore Airlines Lion Mentari Airlines Others 6

7 MAIN DESTINATION MARKETS Table 3: Outbound trips (in 000s) Country f 2016f 2017f Singapore 2,071 2,178 2,330 2,465 2,599 2,744 Malaysia 1,623 1,736 1,926 2,070 2,235 2,382 Saudi Arabia China Thailand Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan Australia Japan Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC f=forecast 7

8 DESTINATION FOCUS; SINGAPORE Singapore top outbound destination due to affordability and accessibility Singapore is the top destination for Indonesians for outbound travel. In addition to the expansion of LCCs and growing middle-class and affluent consumers (MACs), the removal of the exit tax in 2005 spurred the growth in arrivals to Singapore. Because of geographical proximity, Singapore is easily accessible to Indonesia, thus resulting in short and frequent trips. Moreover, as it is a familiar territory for Indonesians, they may not require a travel agent to book a trip. Young travelers (age group:25 to 30 years) are open to book a trip even on short notice. Affordability is also a factor attracting Indonesians to Singapore. For those residing in Jakarta, it is cheaper to take a flight to Singapore than to Bali. Most Indonesians look for places where they can go with family and Singapore scores well in this area, as it is considered as safe and clean place by Indonesians. Singapore was ranked eighth by the World Economic Forum with regards to safety and security globally. Shopping most common activity for Indonesians Shopping is the most common activity among Indonesians when they are in Singapore although it s not a primary purpose of travel. According to findings from a survey conducted by the Singapore Tourism Board in 2011, nine out of 10 Indonesians shop when they visit Singapore and popular items purchased are souvenirs and gifts (48%), confectionery and food items (37%), and luxury brands of fashions and accessories (32%). The main purpose of visit to Singapore is to holiday and relax. Many Indonesians traveling to Singapore (at least seven in 10) are repeated visitors and have visited the country before. For some Indonesians, Singapore is a long weekend getaway. Figure 6: Outbound trips (in millions) Source: Canadean, Singapore National Statistics Figure 7: Indonesia trips to Singapore by purpose of travel 22% 4% 3%6% Source: Canadean, Singapore Tourism Board 65% Holiday/ Rest & Relax Visiting friends/relatives Stopover To shop/attend shopping events in Singapore

9 DESTINATION FOCUS; SAUDI ARABIA Most trips to Saudi are religious Saudi Arabia is the third-largest outbound market and is the only country in the non-asia-pacific region to be ranked among the top- 10 outbound destinations list for Indonesia. Most trips are religious (Hajj and Umrah) as Indonesia is the largest Muslim population country in the world. Leisure travelers are insignificant as Saudi Arabia does not issue visitation visas. Approximately 168,000 people visited Saudi Arabia for Hajj in 2013 and 2014, and 500,000 visited the country for Umrah in A large number of Indonesians (500,000 in 2004) are settled in Saudi Arabia but most of them are female, working as maids and as labour. As these people earn less, Indonesians traveling to Saudi to visit for VFR purposes are likely to be few. Saudi reduced Hajj pilgrims quota due to expansion of Haram project Saudi Arabia imposed a 20% cut in foreign pilgrims visiting the country to perform Hajj in 2013 and 2014, as it has taken-up the expansion of Masjid-e-Haram (a sacred mosque surrounding the Kaaba, Islam s holiest place) so that more pilgrims can be accommodated. Due to this, Indonesian arrivals during Hajj season decreased from 221,000 in 2012 to 168,000 in The quota was insufficient and due to this expansion, the waiting list will go up further; the current waiting period for Indonesians to visit Mecca for Hajj is 12 years. In October 2014, Indonesia requested the unused quotas of other countries for its citizens. Due to this long waiting list, Indonesian government has given priority to applicants with more than 70 years of age. However, visitor arrivals to Saudi are expected to increase further, as the quota for Muslim populous countries such as Indonesia will increase after the completion of construction. Figure 8: Outbound trips Source: Canadean, UNWTO Table 4: Masjid-E-Haram Project Current capacity 2 million Expected capacity (by 2020) 2.5 million Expansion project completion year 2020 Indonesia arrivals during Hajj (in 2014) 168,000 Source: Canadean

10 VISA POLICIES 10

11 MARKET DATA Table 5: International departures by region (in 000 s), Africa Asia-Pacific 5, , , , , , , , , ,665.8 Europe Middle East , , , ,328.4 North America South and Central America Total 6, , , , , , , , , ,443.1 Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Table 6: International departures by purpose of visit (in 000 s), Business , , , , , , , ,444.2 Leisure 3, , , , , , , , , ,831.0 VFR 1, , , , , , , , , ,084.4 Other Personal , ,083.5 Total 6, , , , , , , , , ,443.1 Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC 11

12 MARKET DATA Table 7: International departures by country (in 000 s), Singapore 1,844 1,944 2,071 2,178 2,330 2,465 2,599 2,744 2,886 3,030 Malaysia 1,432 1,454 1,623 1,736 1,926 2,070 2,235 2,382 2,546 2,717 Saudi Arabia ,060 China Thailand Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan Australia Japan Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Table 8: Overnight stays (in millions), Overnight stays Source: Canadean, National Statistics; Ministry of Tourism 12

13 MARKET DATA Table 9: International departures by mode of transport (in 000 s), Air 4, , , , , , , , , ,630.8 Land Sea 1, , , , , , , , , ,274.0 Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, WTTC Table 10: Average length per outbound trip ( number of nights spent), Average length Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism 13

14 MARKET DATA Table 11: Total outbound tourism expenditure by category (in IDR trillions), Accommodation Entertainment and sightseeing Foodservice Retail Transportation Travel intermediation Other categories Total Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, UNWTO Table 12: Total outbound tourism expenditure by category (in US$ billions), Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism, UNWTO Accommodation Entertainment and sightseeing Foodservice Retail Transportation Travel intermediation Other categories Total

15 MARKET DATA Table 13: Average outbound expenditure per resident by category (in IDR Millions), Accommodation Entertainment and sightseeing Foodservice Retail Transportation Travel intermediation Other categories Total Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism Table 14: Average outbound expenditure per resident by category (in US$), Source: Canadean, Ministry of Tourism Accommodation Entertainment and sightseeing Foodservice Retail Transportation Travel intermediation Other categories Total 1,466 1,398 1,312 1,376 1,294 1,296 1,312 1,307 1,309 1,290 15

16 Definitions Table 15: Canadean Travel and Tourism Sector Definitions Term International trip Average length of trip Tourism flow factors Number of overnight stays Leisure trips Business trips Other trips International departures Accommodation Sightseeing and entertainment Foodservice Retail Transportation Travel intermediation Other categories Outbound tourist expenditure Average national tourism spend per day of trip international Percentage of total resident income spent on tourism Average overseas tourism expenditure Passenger airlines Low-cost airlines Full-service airlines Charter airlines Number of seats available Definition A trip taken to a destination outside of the traveler s country of residence. The average number of nights spent by residents of a country, segmented by domestic and international trips. Factors that influence the flow of tourists from one location to another. The total number of nights spent by residents of a country on all trips during a given year. Trips for holidaying, recreation, or visits to friends and relatives. Trips involving business as the primary purpose. This includes trips for MICE purposes, events, and conferences. Trips for purposes other than leisure or business, such as education, sports, or pilgrimage. The total number of citizens leaving their home country and arriving in other countries. This will be higher than the total number of citizens leaving their home country, as a traveler might travel to more than one country. Total direct expenditure on accommodation by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure on sightseeing and entertainment by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure on food and beverages from foodservice outlets by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure in retail outlets by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure on transport by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure via travel intermediaries by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. Total direct expenditure within all other categories by inbound, domestic, and outbound tourists within a single economy. The total expenditure by residents of a country for the purpose of, and during, international tourism trips, irrespective of whether these transactions involve domestic or international providers. This expenditure is categorized in to accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, food service, retail, transport, travel intermediation, and others, which includes travel insurance and equipment rental. The average daily expenditure of a country s residents during international trips. The percentage of total annual income that a country s residents spend on Travel and Tourism activities. The average expenditure on Travel and Tourism activities by a country s outbound tourists, segmented by categories such as accommodation and food service. An airline whose primary business is the transport of passengers. Airlines that generally offer lower fares by eliminating many traditional services. To recover the revenue lost in reduced ticket prices, the airlines may charge for additional facilities, such as priority boarding, seat allocation, food, and baggage. Full-service airlines generally have higher fares, operate long-distance routes, and offer a complete range of in-flight services. An airline hired by a group or single customer for leisure or business purposes, or as an air ambulance, and flies outside normal schedules. An airline classified as non-scheduled by civil aviation organizations falls in to this category. The number of seats available for purchase on all airlines operating in a country. For example, both national and foreign carriers operating on domestic and international routes.

17 Definitions Table 15: Canadean Travel and Tourism Sector Definitions Term Number of seats sold Hotels Budget hotels Midscale hotels Upscale hotels Luxury hotels Car rental Business rentals Leisure rentals Travel agents Tour operators Other providers Online In-store Definition The number of seats sold to revenue passengers by all airlines operating in a country in a year. Establishments that provide paid lodging and full guest services, typically with a continuous staff presence. In the case of motels, this includes off-street parking facilities, but not necessarily meal services. Includes hotels that are considered to be budget accommodation, or have a one- or two-star rating, and provide accommodation on a short-term basis at relatively low prices. Includes hotels with a three-star rating. These hotels provide more facilities and comfort than budget hotels, and their services are charged at higher prices. Includes hotels with a four-star rating. Upscale hotels include both traditional full-service hotels and smaller select-service hotels with comfortable accommodation at higher prices than midscale hotels. Includes hotels with a five-star rating or higher. Luxury hotels provide top quality accommodation, with a combination of high-class facilities and style, typically at much higher prices than standard hotels. Car rental is the hiring of a passenger vehicle, which includes cars and small vans, by both business and leisure travelers for short term duration. Excludes leasing and long term rentals. Annual revenue generated by a car rental company under negotiated contractual agreements specific to business trips. Annual revenue generated by a car rental company through leisure/personal trips. Businesses that sell travel-related products and services to both leisure and business customers on behalf of suppliers, such as tour operators. These may include package holidays, sightseeing tours, airline tickets, hotel accommodation, cruise bookings, car rentals, rail travel, and travel insurance. Some travel agents also serve as sales agents for international travel companies. Tour operators typically combine two or more travel services, such as transport, sightseeing, accommodation, food, and entertainment, and sell them either directly to customers or through travel agents as a single product, called a package tour, for a single price. Any part of the value chain between the direct supplier and traveler (customer), which is not classified as a travel agent or a tour operator. Revenue generated by travel intermediaries by selling travel-related products or services over the internet. Revenue generated by travel intermediaries by selling travel-related products or services to a customer over the counter.

18 Methodology This report features data derived from market data. Market Data In order to create the data for all reports in this series and ensure their robustness, a comprehensive and empirically robust research methodology has been adopted. This combines both a large-scale program of industry research with the results of extensive primary industry interviewing and calling. Furthermore, all definitions are standardized across products and countries to ensure comparability. The two main research methods, secondary research and primary research (the program of interviewing industry contacts), are brought together and because both sets of research processes have been designed in conjunction with each other they can be combined and consolidated into the final, integrated data sets. The secondary research process involves covering publicly available sources, trade associations, specialist databases, company annual reports, and industry publications. Primary research involves a major program of interviewing leading industry executives for each category covered in each country all with local country experts; typically brand, product and marketing managers for major brands within each country. These processes help analysts in capturing both qualitative and quantitative information about the market. The final stage of the process is the triangulation of inputs obtained from all the research methods with the analyst s own understanding of the market in order to finalize the data. Once the data is finalized, it goes through various top level quality checks prior to publishing.

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