The Loss of Urban Areas from Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX

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1 Sophie Worrell 11/29/2016 The Loss of Urban Areas from Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX (1) Purpose: Defined by flat coastal plains, the greater Houston-Galveston area is the most populated region in Texas. Therefore, as sea level continues to rise the greater Houston-Galveston area will be one of the first regions significantly affected. Global climate change is causing sea level to rise 7 mm/year in this area. This projects aims to project the loss of Houston-Galveston urban areas (in km 2 ) due to sea level rise; specifically, focused on sea level rises of 1 meter, 3 meters, 7 meters, 11 meters, 15 meters, and 20 meters. (2) Data Collection: Texas Counties shape-file: From the United States 2016 Census data 8and+equivalent%29 Urban Density shape-file: From the United States 2016 Census data Digital Elevation Models: From the USGS National Map Cities Shape-file: From the Texas Parks and Wildlife Houston-Galveston Base Map: From the Texas Natural Resources Information System Sea Level Rise Rate for the Galveston Area: From the Tides and Currents NOAA (3) Data Processing: I downloaded all of the shape-files and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to my USB drive s Project folder. Then I extracted the files to make sure all the information was accessible. (4) ArcGIS Processing: a) I first changed the Layers coordinate system to GCS NAD 1983, so the data was projected with the least amount of distortion. b) I added in all of my shape-files and DEMs to the blank ArcMap document. Then I used the project tool in Arctoolbox to project all of the shape-files to the same coordinate system as the Layers (GCS NAD 1983). To change the DEMs, I located each DEM in ArcCatalog and changed the 1

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11 Sophie Worrell 11/29/2016 (5) Conclusion: The calculation of urban area loss demonstrates how significantly the rise in sea level from 1m 20 m will affect the greater Houston-Galveston area. The pre-sea level rise urban extent was 4095 km 2. 1 m of sea level rise did not notably alter the urban area (Fig. 10). This is good news because at the rate of 7mm/yr., 1 m of sea level rise will occur in 143 years. Drastic changes in the urban extent will appear in 1000 years; the urban area will be reduced by 20% because of 7 m sea level rise. With 20 m of sea level rise, most of the greater Houston-Galveston urban area will be under water. Resulting in loss of more than half of the urban expanse by the year 4876 (Fig. 10). Thus, global warming induced sea level rise will greatly alter the urban expanse of the Houston-Galveston area. Figure 9: Current urban area Urban area after 1m sea rise Urban area after 3m sea rise Urban area after 7m sea rise Urban area after 11m sea rise Urban area after 15 m sea rise Urban Area after 20m sea rise 4095 km km km km km km km 2 Figure 9 displays all of my calculated areas of the urban expanse lost after different amounts of sea level rise. 11

12 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX Present Day Sea Level Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Shallow Water Moderatly Deep Water Deep Water Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

13 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 1 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

14 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 3 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

15 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 7 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

16 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 11 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

17 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 15 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

18 The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX 20 Meter Sea Level Rise Sophie Worrell 12/1/2016 ± H A R R I S Baytown Mont Belvieu C H A M B E R S Anahuac J E F F E R S O N Houston G A L V E S T O N Bolivar Peninsula F O R T B E N D Texas City B R A Z O R I A Alvin Galveston Angleton The Gulf of Mexico Legend Counties Urban Centers Major Cities Water Level Sea Level Rise Km 1:900,000 GCS North American 1983

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