By Juliana Adosi Tanzania Meteorological Agency P.O.Box 3056 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania.

Transcription

1 Climate Change Related Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation in Tanzania By Juliana Adosi Tanzania Meteorological Agency P.O.Box 3056 Dar Es Salaam Tanzania.

2 INTRODUCTION Climate Change and it s associated impacts on the socio-economic activities is a major concern in the world. It is therefore necessary to identify vulnerable areas and their resilience so as to develop appropriate adaptive measures. In Tanzania, the vulnerable sectors have been identified as follows:

3 Agriculture Water resources Livestock Grass land forests Coastal resource Fisheries wild life Health Retreat of glaciers

4 Objective The main objective of this study is to present a review of Climate Change scenarios and assessment of their impact in Tanzania and to highlight the resilience and Vulnerability of different sectors as well as to suggest possible adaptation measures of Tanzania to Climate Change in particular the retreat of glaciers at the top of Mt. Kilimanjaro.

5 Methodology A review of climate change scenarios and assessment of the impact and vulnerability for different sectors in Tanzania is presented. A case study of the retreat of the glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro is discussed in detail together with it s expected impacts and resilience on the socio-economic activities including tourism and possible adaptation measures.

6 Review of Climate Change Scenarios and their impact in Tanzania Coastal resource: Sea level rise which bring about coastal erosion and submerging of low lands. Retreat of Kili glaciers: Expected with reduction in tourists Agriculture: Food shortage Water resources: Excess / shortage in some areas

7 Live stock: Decreased heads Grass land: Desert encroachment Forests: Reduced/increased forests in some areas, desert encroachment Wilde life: loss of some species, migration, conflicts Health: Increased diseases Tanzania is not resilient to these impacts due to weak economies, poor capacity and therefore it is vulnerable to climate change.

8 Retreat of Glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro It has been widely reported that the glaciers on mount Kilimanjaro are retreating and this has been attributed to global warming. But it has also been observed that: i) Mass loss at the glaciers is due to increased incoming solar radiation because of decrease in cloud-ness and interaction with precipitation frequency and amount ii) Sublimation an important energy consumer on Kilimanjaro glacier is due to dry atmosphere (low humidity atmosphere feeds on glaciers). There is a coupling effect between the atmosphere and glacier.

9 Retreat of Glaciers on Mt. Kili cont iii)precipitation changes have most probably initiated and maintained glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. We can say this is due to much drier atmospheric conditions than the previous period when glaciers experienced expansion. (deforestation: forest fire, cutting trees for domestic use & habitant etc. destroyed large area of the watershed) In this presentation we give an overview of observational studies that have been carried out as an attempt to link the retreat of the glaciers to climate change impacts.

10 Mt. Kilimanjaro Africa s highest mountain (5,895m) Size 80km by 50km on Kenya Tanzania border(3 04 S, E) Volcanic origin with three single peaks Shira (4,005m) Mawenzi (5,140m) Kibo (5,895m) only peak retaining glaciers. National Park (756km 2 ) established in 1973 World Heritage Site 1989 (3 peaks, moorland and highland zones) Forest Reserve established in 1921.

11 MOUNT KILIMANJARO S THREE PEAKS Mt. Meru Kibo Shira Plateau Mawenzi

12 The Mt. Kilimanjaro Glacier Definition: A glacier is an extended mass of ice formed from snow falling and accumulating over the years Tropical glaciers form on the region where the following conditions coincide High mountains Enough moisture source A zone where the diurnal air temperature amplitude exceeds the annual amplitude.

13 KILIMANJARO CLIMATIC ZONES

14 Kilimanjaro thick forests

15 Effect of thick forests on Kili glaciers Maximum annual rainfall is 3,000mm at 2,100m. On the southern slope About 96% of water from Mt. Kilimanjaro comes from thick forest. Rainfall decreases with height Northern lee slopes receive less rainfall. Deforestation by clearing of trees for fire wood, farming, habitation, forest fire etc. has destroyed the water shed and therefore reduced moisture aloft for expansion of the glaciers.

16 Kilimanjaro Forests Moorland Weak forest Burned forest Forest recovering slowly

17 Kilimanjaro Forests Cont Moorland, week forest and grassland are often attacked by forest fires. Thousands of hectares were burned in 1996 and recovering is a very slow process. Large areas exposed therefore susceptible to erosion and moisture deficit hence less

18 KILIMANJARO GLACIER IN DANGER

19 Ice retreating close to Uhuru Peak

20 Serious depletion goes on the Southern Ice Field Large sheets of ice collapse and evaporate (sublimation). SOUTHERN ICE FIELD

21 Steep depleted glacier sides NIF 40-50m 20-30m (a) (b)

22 KLIPSPRINGER Creatures are rare in the summit zone In 1926 Reusch, a missionary found a leopard frozen in the snow. Some climbers go with dogs (1962),can go astray and get frozen. Frozen creatures like klipspringer on the NIF might have reached there probably after getting lost

23 Contribution of Geothermal Heating in depletion of glaciers (NIF)

24 Vents release hot gases (SIF)

25 Summary of Retreat of Mt. Kilimanjaro Glacier between 1993 and /2/ /2/2000 (a) (b)

26 Kilimanjaro glacier extent EIF

27 Glacier extent

28 Glacier reduction at the summit in the last century 1974 EARLIER 2005

29 KILIMANJARO JANUARY 2007 AFTER PRONOUNCED OND RAINS.

30 What is the future of the dormant Kili volcano? The mountain currently experiences regular earth quakes and hot gases release. In January 2006 a lot of gas was released, in March 2006 a near by Mt. Oldonyo Lengai (2 42 S E) in Ngorongoro District erupted. Mild pressure from below in the direction of Kili but not strong enough to shake it. There is a possibility of Kili to erupt in the near future and that will be severe on Lengai.

31 Mt. Oldonyo Lengai (2 42 S E) Eruption March 2006

32 Temporary Meteteorological Observatories on Mt. Kilimanjaro. 3 AWS have been installed on temporary basis on special projects by the University of Innsbruck, Austria and University of Massachusetts, USA; 2 at the summit, 1 at the slopes were installed at different times, 2000, 2004 and 2005 respectively.

33 Overview of temporary station locations: Northern Icefield station Vertical wall station Slope glacier station

34 Components of AWS.

35 Met. Observations at top of the mountain since Hourly wind speed and direction (Young anemometer) Air temperature ( ventilated shield and aspirated) 1m. Depth/s face ice temperature (drill and insert a thermometer) Vapor pressure Relative Humidity Atmospheric pressure (capacitance) In coming/out going solar radiation (Kipp and Zonen Net Radiometer) Snow accumulation/ablation (Pyranometerslower/upper sensor) 3 hourly cloud picture (Camera) Solar panel (power supply).

36 Preliminary Results Data analysis for five years has been collected for different parameters by the respective institutions The series is too short to show any trend in the parameters Temperature analysis on annual bases is shown below.

37 KILIMANJARO TEMPERATURES

38 MONTHLY MAX TEMP COMPARED WITH NCEP 500hPa AIR TEMP. Ventilated Air Temperature, monthly MAX ( C) NCEP 500 hpa annual NCEP/NCAR 500 hpa Air Temperature

39 RESULTS CONT Observations show a horizontal loss of 0.45m per annum while side loss is 1.0m per annum, mean temperature -7.0 C, mean wind speed 7.5 m/s at the summit, stronger winds below (E.A. Low level Jet), relative humidity is about 65%, VP 1.87hPa, air pressure 505.8, rainfall<250 mm, radiation W m 2, albedo ~0.5

40 RESULTS CONT Geothermal heating has also been observed to contribute to the retreat of the glacier. The crater part of the summit has completely lost the glacier. Ash pit releases sulphur and other gases and vents which seem to exist in some parts of the glacier, release hot gases hence glacier melting.

41 Adaptation to Climate Change: Tanzania just like any other part of the world is impacted by climate. In general the country is adapting to climate change by: Agriculture -change of crop variety (drought resistance/water logging ) - irrigation -institute proper land use -Shift to higher ground to avoid floods -abandon most hit areas.

42 Adaptation Cont Forests, grass land and wild life -a forestation -use clean energy -stop deforestation -control forest fires Water resources -Rain water harvesting (domestic, ground recharge) -Conserve water --Reservoir construction Coastal resource -planting trees (mangrove) - wall construction Health -Improve seasonal forecasts, hence develop better planning to combat disease outbreaks Live stock -Reduce animal numbers -set aside grazing areas -introduce zero grazing

43 CONCLUSION Vulnerability and adaptation of Tanzania to climate change has been discussed in general with a particular case of the impact of climate change on the depletion of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers. One of the possible reasons for depletion of glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro is reduced moisture sources aloft, a condition which can be reversed by a forestation on the damaged watershed.

44 RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Need for permanent future observations: In order to understand what s going on Kilimanjaro, there is a need to have a permanent station (s) at the summit ( 1 on glacier, 1 on glacier melted bare soil.) to monitor observations for research purposes for our benefit and the future generation. So far it is the only high observation point with long series of data in the world ( need to maintain it)

45 2 Reduce anthropogenic forcing through a forestation which is superimposed on large scale forcing Investigate the change of atmospheric stability which is critical for convection and fetch of moisture to middle troposphere (5,000-6,000m). Consider different climatological scales: i) Microscale: Refine existing climate and mass balance studies and quantify the impact of local climate on glaciers more precisely by taking microscale meteorological and glaciological measurements for application to energy and mass balance models ii) Mesoscale: combine micro-scale with meso-scale model experiments to investigate the connection of local/regional climate to large scale climate (global). iii) Establish permanent meteorological station(s) to monitor the atmospheric conditions over an extended period of time

46 Station installation cost estimate Please find appended below a rough initial station installation cost for any interested organization in the Kilimanjaro Glacier Retreat Project Research Initiation.

47 BUDGET No Activity Qty Rate US Total US $ 1 AWS 2 30,000 60,000 2 DSA 6* , Bus fare Porters food, tants Porters Equipment Insurance Permit Fees Solar panel ,500 5 Sonic ranger 1 6 Cloud camera 1 7 Miscellaneous 1,000 Total 68,690

48 ACKNOWLEGEMENT Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University, USA Douglas Hardy, Raymond S. Bradley, Carsten Braun, Frank Keimig & Mathias Vuille: University of Massachusetts, USA Mark Losleben: University of Colorado Dave & Bill: USA Georg Kaser, Thomas Mölg, Nicolas Cullen: University of Innsbruck, Austria Mohamed Mhita, Emanuel Mpeta, Tharsis Hyera, Peter Kato, D.R.Kashasha, Nelson Pyuzza: TMA Tanzania Erick Masawe: Moshi Tanzania

49 THANK YOU