Indian Ocean Small Island States: Indicators of Dangerous Anthropogenic Influences of Climate Change?

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1 Indian Ocean Small Island States: Indicators of Dangerous Anthropogenic Influences of Climate Change? Prepared for: AGU Fall Meeting San Francisco CA December 5, 2005 Prepared by: Bill Mills Chih-Fang Chung Katherine Heidel Tetra Tech, Inc. Lafayette CA

2 Solve this cranium scramble: Gringo balm law (Hint: Hot times ahead)

3 How this Study Came to be: To support Barbados Plan of Action-2005

4 SIDS Small Island Developing States Located in Indian,Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, and seas such as Mediterranean and Caribbean (over 50 world wide) Typical conditions of SIDS of concern to us: Materialistically poor Limited modern infrastructure Islanders perceptions are that climate change is causing existing problems to worsen quickly Environmental injustice: SIDS not exert influence on climate, but are among the most vulnerable to climate change

5 SIDS that are the Focus of Study SIDS Comoros Mauritius Seychelles Maldives # Major Islands

6 Representative Scenes From SIDS Maldives Mauritius Seychelles Comoros

7 Comoros Active Volcano Hazards and Environmental Issues Maldives Solid Waste Dump Mauritius Erosion Victoria Tsunami Damage

8 Comparison of SIDS Information with New Orleans, USA

9 Maximum elevations on each SIDS Elevation, m High elevations tend to: Promote higher percentages of population near shoreline Provide retreat area if sea level rises Enhance Runoff Limit large areas available for agricultural production COMOROS MAURITIUS SEYCHELLES MALDIVES

10 GDP per capita by SIDS (US $)

11 Tourist landings per 100 islanders

12 Comparison in growth of number of tourists and population in Maldives More tourists than natives since mid 1990s. Count Population Tourists Year

13 Population on SIDS: Most Experiencing Steady Growth Population by SIDS Comoros Mauritius Seychelles Maldives Population, thousands year

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16 Projected Global Sea Level Change (cm) w.r.t Over Next 3 Centuries

17 Historical Relative Sea Level Change: Mauritius Maldives and Seychelles Port Louis, Mauritius H= 0.3M Male, Maldives H= 0. 2M Victoria, Seychelles H= 0.3M Implications: It s not just sea level but its variability

18 Comparisons of Past and Projected Relative Sea Level (RSL) the SIDS Island Estimated 20 th Century RSL change Predicted RSL change During 21 st Century (mean case) GLOBAL +180 mm +360 mm (+ 100%) Mauritius Seychelles Maldives -500 mm to +100 mm +300 mm/yr +300 mm/yr -150 mm to +460 mm mm to +800mm mm to +800mm Comoros +300 mm mm to +800mm Present global rate of sea level rise: 1.8 mm/yr

19 Vertical Distribution of Land Above MSL in Maldives: Present

20 Vertical Distribution of Land Above MSL in Maldives: Now and Year 2100

21 Tidal Levels-Selected Locations on Maldives December 2004, with Tsunami Signal Shown On Malé the sea level rose by about 1.5 m, and temporarily submerged much of the capital city

22 Tropical Cyclones in Indian Ocean (Storms with sustained wind > 63 km/hr or 38 mph) North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal): Five In 2004 Two in October 2004 Southern Indian Ocean (west of 105 o E): 12 in in march Southern Indian Ocean Average : :13 Both Mauritius and Comoros are located within typical cyclone storm tracks. The Seychelles and Maldives are not. Northern Indian Ocean Average :5

23 Temperature Change ( o C) w.r.t. 2005

24 Temperature Anomalies, with respect to : Maldives

25 Last 4 years of Monthly Precipitation for SIDS 16 Southern Indian Mauritius Madagascar Comoros 16 Equatorial Indian Maldives Seychelles mm/day mm/day Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Distinct dry and wet seasons exist on these islands

26 Summary of Potential Dangerous Anthropogenic Influences of Climate Change on the SIDS Major Categories of Data Examined Category Sea Level Rise Infrastructure Failure Impact on economic base Water Resources Coastal Resources More Extreme Climate Variability Increase in Storm Frequencies and Intensity Examples of Impacts Increased flooding; Aquifer contamination; Less protection by seawalls Submergence on low lying airports; wastewater stagnation Adverse impact on tourist and agriculture industries Loss of freshwater resources and quality as shallow subsurface water lens are pinched out Erosion of shoreline and stress on coral reefs Drier dry seasons; wetter wet seasons; impacts on agriculture More intense tropical cylcones Abrupt Climate Change Rapid sea level rise from destabilization of large ice sheets on Antarctica Energy sufficiency Petroleum based energy sources may be depleted by 2100s

27 Vulnerability Issues Example: Water Resources

28 Water Use on Selected SIDS Comoros: Not enough data available (FAO) Seychelles: Not enough data available (FAO)

29 Estimated Changes freshwater availability by 2050 (gal/(cap-day) SIDS Year 1980 (P-E)/Population Present Year 2050 Comoros 2,100 1, Mauritius 1,700 1, Seychelles 6, Maldives USA

30 Resource Consumption: Natives (on left) vs. Tourists (on right)

31 Possible Reduction in Volume of Freshwater Lens on Maldives by 2100 Volume of freshwater lens is proportional to R 3, and rapidly decreases with small sea level rise

32 Vulnerability of Airports to Sea Level Rise Male and International Airport, Maldives (January 2, 2005) Built on artificial island next to capital city, at elevation of +1 m above msl. Seycelles International Airport Built at elevation of about 3 m above msl. Suffered damage from December 2004 tsunami. The major airport on Mauritius is located well inland Comoros The major airport is located in Dzaoudzi, 8 m above msl.

33 An Emerging Picture for These Islands Are these forgotten islands? For example water resource data are not available for several SIDS from FAO Few detailed, comprehensive maps of these SIDS are available Adequate baseline characterizations of water resources, infrastructure, etc. are not available Steadily population growth is common to all SIDS: population density is increasing Between SIDS, there are unique issues Climate Change will act in a common manner on the islands to increase stresses. Natural disasters are a way of life and must be considered as future stresses In spite of any climate change mitigation alternatives implemented, temperatures are likely to continue to increase for several centuries, and sea levels will continue to increase even longer

34 How Society as a Whole Could Adapt Involvement Education Communication Technical Expertise Commitment Retreat/ Abandonment

35 Potential Adaptation Strategies Characterize baseline stresses (see next two slides) Use Pacific/Caribbean SIDS experiences Prioritize adaptation approaches Strategies Use No Regrets strategies Make issues known to world Develop Infrastructure Address multiple scales: Family Village Country Region

36 Suggested baseline indices for SIDS that relate to detecting Climate Change Note: These are examples of information that can be evaluated to establish baseline conditions Index Number Description Comment 1 2 Temperature trends in minimum daily temperature seasonally Temperature trends in maximum daily temperature seasonally 3 Longterm temperature trends (years) 4 Trends and magnitudes of number of days that can initiate human heat stress 5 Frequency and severity of extreme storms 6a Precipitation trends in dry seasons, wet seasons, and annually Increasing daily minimum temperatures can be associated with climate change Increasing maximum temperatures are associated with global warming Temperatures on SIDS have been increasing for year. Rate might increase over time Increasing number and severity of heat waves can adversely affect human health Evidence emerging that extreme storms may be increasing in frequency and magnitudes in parts of the world Even though precipitation might increase in a warmer world, the increases will not occur everywhere. Also, warmer dry seasons experienced by the SIDS could impose additional stresses, such as to agriculture. 6b Net water availability, (P-E)/population Used in this study Changing states, durations, intensity of global indices These states influence persistence of dry (droughts) 7 such as ENSO, NAO, and PDO weather or wet weather

37 Suggested baseline indices for SIDS that relate to detecting Climate Change (continue) 9 Changes in flow rates of natural streams May be difficult to monitor 10 Increases in salinity levels in shallow aquifers Increases could signify sea level rise or increased pumpage 11 Trends in mean sea level Slow rises in mean sea level are expected, unless the island is not vertically stable 12 Number tourist landing per year. Increase in events such as extreme storm frequency can reduce tourism 13 Trends in number of cases of different types Some diseases may be associated with climatic warming 14 Energy consumption on a per capita basis Costs and availability of oil may change as supplies become more globally limited. 15 Crop yields over time Crops may become stressed by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. 16 Dates of leaf emersion in spring Warmer weather may induce earlier bloom dates 17 Length of crop growing season Warmer weather may produce an increase 18 Changes in types and dominance, and persistance of Insect abundance and distributions may be related to different insects a changing climate 19 Arrival and departure of migratory bird species May reflect later arrival of fall weather and earlier arrival of spring weather

38 Success Stories Seychelles Waste management and sanitary sewage treatment on the increases. Desalination facilities constructed; service for up to 45,000 people. Maldives Desalination beginning to augment natural supplies New island under construction with airport and city: Hulhumale Extensive infrastructure development initiated Overall Resiliency of people following Tsunami