A GEOGRAPHY OF ILLICIT CROPS (COCA LEAF) AND ARMED CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA *

Transcription

1 DOCUMENTO CEDE ISSN (Edición Elecrónica) MARZO DE 2004 CEDE A GEOGRAPHY OF ILLICIT CROPS (COCA LEAF) AND ARMED CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA * ANA MARÍA DÍAZ** FABIO SÁNCHEZ ** Absrac Colombia is currenly he world s lares producer of coca leaf and he principal producer of opium poppies in he Americas; he plans are he basic raw maerials used o produce cocaine and heroin. This documen will analyse he curren relaionship beween hese crops and illeal armed roups in Colombia, usin he hypohesis ha he eoraphical inensificaion of he conflic is he principal cause of expandin illici crop producion. This relaionship was analysed usin a heoreic model, in which an ineracion beween illeal armed aciviy and sraeic erriorial conrol lead o cocaine producion. Spaial analysis echniques were hen applied, especially spaial associaion indicaors; and a clear spaial dynamic was observed, relaed o he wo aspecs menioned above. Non parameric exercises were also carried ou usin machin esimaors, o deermine he effec illeal armed roups have on coca 1 crops, and also o analyse he efficiency of aerial eradicaion policies. The resuls sues ha a lare percenae of coca producion in Colombia is due o he effecs of illeal armed aciviy. We herefore conclude ha he expansion of illeal crop rowin is a consequence of he expandin conflic. In conras, coca crops can only be used o explain a small par of he armed conflic in Colombia. In addiion, we found ha crop eradicaion via aerial sprayin has no been an efficien ool in he fih aains coca producion in he counry. JEL Classificaion: R12, R19, K14, C13, C19. Key Words: Illici crops, Coca, Armed Conflic, Eradicaion, Spaial Economerics, Diffusion, Conaiousness, Machin Esimaors, Probiy, Propensiy Scores, Neares Neihbour, Kernel, Local Linear Reression. * This version corresponds, in conens and form, o CEDE Documen No , oriinally wrien in spanish. Final version, Prepared for Crisis Sae Proram, Developmen Research Cenre, Developmen Sudies Insiue, London School of Economics. We would like hank: he valuable conribuion of Carolina Mejía in he developmen of he echnical model and Fernando Jaramiillo for his modellin advice; Mario Chacón for his excellen ediin work; María Anélica Bauisa who helped pu oeher he biblioraphy; Marha Boia as a Colciencias youn researcher and María Paula Carvajal for heir informaion aherin and processin aciviies, and who were co-auhors of a previous version of his documen; all hose who aended he Fedesarrollo, CEDE, Deparameno Nacional de Planeación, Desin (Booa) and Lacea (México) seminars for heir commens and suesions; and Jean Paul Faue for his criical read hrouh of one version of his documen. This research paper was financed by DESTIN-LSE, Colciencias and CEDE. ** anadia@uniandes.edu.co, fasanche@uniandes.edu.co, Research Cenre for Economic Developmen, Economics Deparamen, Universidad de los Andes.

2 GEOGRAFÍA DE LOS CULTIVOS ILÍCITOS Y CONFLICTO ARMADO EN COLOMBIA ANA MARIA DIAZ FABIO SANCHEZ Resumen Colombia es acualmene el mayor producor de hoja de coca del mundo y de amapola de América, insumos básicos para la producción de cocaína y heroína. Ese documeno analia la relación exisene enre esos culivos y los rupos armados ileales en Colombia, bajo la hipóesis que la inensificación eoráfica del conflico es la causa principal de la expansión de los culivos ilícios. Para analiar esa relación se desarrolla un modelo eórico en el que la producción de coca es el resulado de la ineracción de la acividad armada ileal y el conrol erriorial como esraeia de los rupos ileales. Poseriormene se hace uso de las écnicas de análisis espacial, en paricular los indicadores de asociación espacial, en los cuales se observa una clara dinámica espacial enre los dos fenómenos. De iual forma, se realian ejercicios no paraméricos, con las écnicas de emparejamieno o machin esimaors, con cuales se busca enconrar el efeco de la acividad de los rupos armados ileales sobre los culivos de coca, y por ora pare, se busca analiar la eficiencia de las políicas de la erradicación por aspersión. Los resulados suieren que el efeco de la acividad armada ileal en Colombia explica en un ran porcenaje la producción de hoja de coca en el país, por lo ano se concluye que la expansión de los culivos es una consecuencia de la expansión del conflico. En conrase, los culivos de coca explican solo una pequeña proporción del conflico armado. Por ora pare, los ejercicios sobre la erradicación por aspersión exponen que esa no ha sido una herramiena eficiene para la lucha conra la producción de coca en el erriorio nacional. Clasificación JEL: R12, R19, K14, C13, C19. Palabras Claves: Culivos Ilícios, Coca, Conflico Armado, Erradicación, Economería Espacial, Difusión, Conaio, Machin Esimaors, Probi, Propensiy Scores, Neares Neihbor, Kernel, Local Linear Reression. 2

3 1. Inroducion Inerprein Coca Trends in he Andean Reion Bolivia...6 Peru Coca Producion in Colombia A Brief Hisory Recen Trends Reional Aspecs Orinoco and Amaon Reion The Andean Reion The Caribbean Reion The Pacific Reion Inerprein Coca Producion in Colombia Rebellion: Financin Armed Conflic Recen Lieraure on Financin Armed Conflic A Theoreical Model of he Relaionship Beween Coca and he Conflic The Model Comparaive Saisics Coca and Armed Conflic in Colombia The Georaphy of he Armed Conflic and is Relaionship wih Coca The Spaial Relaionship Beween he Armed Conflic and Coca Crops Spaial Indicaors Of The Armed Conflic And Coca Crops The Diffusion and Spaial Dynamics of Illici Crops and he Armed Conflic Eradicaion of Coca in Colombia The Hisory and Policies of Eradicaion The Diffusion and Dynamics of Illici Crops and Eradicaion Economeric Evidence Hypohesis Machin Esimaors Daa Resuls The Differences Beween Culivaed Hecares of Coca as a Consequence of Illeal Armed Aciviy Armed Acors FARC ELN Illeal Self-Defence Groups Differences in Armed Aciviy as a Consequence of Illici Crop Producion FARC ELN Illeal Self-Defence Groups Eradicaion Conclusions Biblioraphy Annexes

4 1. Inroducion Colombia has become he world s lares producer of coca leaf and he main producer of opium poppies in he Americas; hese plans are he basic raw maerials used o produce cocaine and heroin. The nineies were characerised by an expansion of coca rowin in he order of 286% (culivaed hecares increased from 37,500 in 1992 o 144,807 in 2001). This expansion was accompanied by reduced culivaion in Peru and Bolivia. Various differen social sciences have sudied his phenomenon, mos focusin on he causes and consequences, wih lile empirical or quaniaive evidence. Evidence exiss ha coca and opium crops are closely linked o he finances of illeal armed roups, which is in line wih recen lieraure reardin inernal conflics and civil wars. A lack of exernal fundin leads he irreular roups owards an economic aciviy in which hey have he compeiive ede. In mos cases, his aciviy is based on economic depredaion or exorion paricularly of primary oods via he selecive or indiscriminae use of violence (Bannon and Collier, 2003). They are also, of course, involved in moneary exorion and kidnappin, in which he use of inense violence is employed. The irreular roups objecive o dominae and conrol coca and opium poppy rowin areas has lead o he inimidaion of local communiies, and he use of violence aains hem. However, coca and poppy crops are no a depredaory aciviy per se. There is a cerain added value o heir producion; here is a marke for he produc, in which he irreular roups inervene, and hey are he basic raw maerials of psychoacive drus. Neverheless, eoraphical expansion oes beyond hese economic facors. The illeal roups sraeic objecives reardin erriorial conrol also play an imporan role here. In recen years he evidence has suesed a rowin link beween he expansion of illeal crops 2 and he aciviies of he armed roups, o he exen ha profis from coca and poppy producion, in addiion o hose eneraed by he producion of psychoacive drus, have become one of he main ways ha hese roups finance heir aciviies. Therefore, his paper will analyse he above menioned relaionship, wih he hypohesis ha he eoraphical expansion and inensificaion of he conflic is he principal cause behind he expansion of illeal crops. To verify he hypohesis paerns of spaial diffusion and conaion beween coca producion and he aciviies of illeal armed roups were analysed usin curren spaial analysis echniques. A heoreic model of he illici crops/conflic relaionship was also developed o reach a beer undersandin of is dynamics and inerrelaions. Furhermore, in order o analyse he empirical causaliy relaionship beween illici crops and he conflic, he level of illeal armed aciviy in coca rowin areas in municipaliies or reions was sudied usin he non-parameric mehod known as machin esimaors. 2 The culivaion of plans such as coca, opium poppies and marijuana, ha are processed ino naural psychoacive drus. Coca rows in warm, humid ones wih hih rainfall, which are beween 300 and 1,600m above sea level. Opium poppies, on he oher hand, hrive in mounainous areas beween 1,800 and 3,000m above sea level. 4

5 This paper is divided ino six secions. The firs is an analysis of coca rends in he Andean reion, and how hey have been inerpreed by differen auhors. The second secion offers a brief hisory of coca, and recen rends in he Andean reion. The hird is a descripion of coca rends in Colombia and reional dynamics over recen years, as well as a brief menion of he principal inerpreaions and hypoheses of he causes and consequences of illici crop rowin in Colombia. The fourh secion develops he heoreic model and ries o explain he relaionship beween illeal crops and he conflic. The fifh secion relaes coca eoraphy wih ha of he inernal conflic in Colombia, by usin spaial analysis echniques, in paricular relaed o he clusers and dynamics of illici crop diffusion. The sixh secion offers an analysis of he effecs of he armed conflic on he number of culivaed hecares and vice versa. Finally, we presen our conclusions in he sevenh secion. 2. Inerprein Coca Trends in he Andean Reion Coca is naive o he Andean Reion (Bolivia, Peru and Colombia). Is culivaion and consumpion (as leaf) has lon been par of he radiions and cusoms of Andean peasan farmers, above all in Bolivia and Peru. In recen decades, specifically since inernaional demand for drus bean o increase, his reion has become he world s leadin producer of coca; 200,000 hecares of coca are under culivaion in his par of he world. The culivaed area in hese hree counries was sable hrouhou he nineies. Bu in recen years he proporion of he oal rown in each counry has chaned subsanially. Colombia wen from bein an imporer of coca base o bein a ne producer of coca leaf from 19% of oal reional culivaion in 1990 o 72% in Over he same period Peru s share fell from 57% o 17%, and Bolivia s from 25% o 10%. 3 This relocaion of coca producion in he reion (raph 1) was he resul of successful eradicaion and inerdicion effors in Bolivia and Peru. Alhouh hese policies enjoyed domesic success, hey did no have he same resuls a reional level. Reduced producion in hese wo counries was compensaed for by new crops in Colombia. 3 In he inernaional environmen, i is believed ha dru income is a fundamenal par of developmen in he Andean counries (see Thoumi (2002) and Seiner (1997)). However, invesiaions based on riorous calculaions have shown ha cocaine income is jus 3.4% of Peruvian GDP, less han 5% of Bolivian GDP and around 5% of Colombian GDP. Today i is 3% of Colombian GDP, whils in he firs half of he 1980s i was 7% of GDP. This shows ha oher secors exis in hese counries ha offer beer economic rowh perspecives han he coca business. 5

6 Graph 1. Coca Producion in he Andean Reion Hecares Source: US Sae Deparmen Bolivia Colombia Perú Each counry has used a differen sraey o reduce he supply of coca. Bolivia favoured eradicaion, Peru placed reaer imporance on fihin raffickin (shuin down aerial and fluvial expor roues and hus inspirin he abandonmen of culivaed land), and Colombia has favoured chemical fumiaion, eradicaion and crop subsiuion. Alhouh he Andean reion is he principal world supplier of cocaine, i is also produced in pars of Africa, Asia, some areas of he USA (Hawaii), Guam and Lain America (Brail, Ecuador, he Guyanas and Veneuela). Counries like Mexico and Cuba have become imporan lobal commercialisaion cenres. In he followin secions we develop There follows a brief hisory of coca producion in Bolivia, Peru and, specifically, Colombia Bolivia Beween 1720 and 1950 Bolivian coca was rown mainly in he Yunas reion, in he Deparmen of La Pa. I was a leal aciviy and coca was a principal par of he Bolivian die (Thoumi, 2002). Durin he 1950s, Chapare, in he Deparmen of Cochabamba, bean o overake Yunas due o he producive advanaes of his reion 4, becomin he leadin producer in he 1960s and 70s. Unil he end of he 1960s, he evoluion of coca in Bolivia was fairly sable. However, hih profis and susained increases in inernaional demand for coca, in addiion o he Bolivian economic crisis in he 1980s and he closure of in mines in 1985, led o a rise in illeal coca culivaion. An operaional srucure was consolidaed durin hese years ha faciliaed he ransiion from he firs phase of producion o he cocaine business iself, alhouh he final sae of producion he fabricaion of cocaine hydrochloride was conrolled by he Colombian carels (Rojas, 2002). 4 These naural advanaes are ha coca can be produced wihou a need for erracin, and ha plans may be harvesed four imes a year insead of hree, as is he case in Yunas. Furhermore, Chapare coca conains more alkaloids han Yuna coca, and processin coss are herefore lower. 6

7 The coca siuaion in Bolivia oday is very differen o he susained rowh of he 1980s. In 1987 here were 60,000 hecares of coca bein culivaed in Bolivia, which supplied a lare proporion of inernaional demand (raph 2). Durin subsequen years producion remained sable a around 50,000 hecares. However, he effec of overnmen prorammes 5 desined o fih illici producion led o a fall in producion ha sharpened from 1997 when Plan Dinidad 6 (he Diniy Plan) came ino force. The proramme, suppored by he US overnmen, aimed o reduce supply o he minimum level needed o saisfy domesic demand for coca leaf. Since 1997 coca producion in Bolivia has fallen sinificanly (raph 2); i currenly makes a marinal conribuion o he lobal marke. Graph 2. Coca producion in Bolivia from 1980 o Hecares Source: US Sae Deparmen 2.2. Peru Coca has been rown in Peru for millennia; i has played a cenral role in Peruvian social cusoms 7 hrouhou he counry s hisory. Iniially, leal crops were esablished in he area known as Ceja de la Selva o saisfy a domesic demand for he produc of around 1,000 culivaed hecares (Gonáles, 1989). The poor sae of he Peruvian economy in he 1950s (ariculural recession, populaion rowh and a weakened minin secor) inspired he successive non- 5 Law 1008 (1988), reulaed producion, disribuion and commercialisaion and offered alernaive developmen sources. I also defined leal producion ones. Amons oher prorammes are he: Esraeia Nacional de Lucha conra el Narcoráfico (he Naional Dru War Sraey) and he Esraeia Nacional de Desarrollo Alernaivo (Opción Cero) (Naional Alernaive Developmen Sraey (Zero Opion)), ha focussed on offerin moneary compensaion for each hecare of coca eradicaed, subsiuin illeal crops for leal alernaives, as well as eradicaion and inerdicion. 6 This plan is known as he Esraeia Boliviana de Lucha conra el Narcoráfico (Bolivian Dru War Sraey) and is based on four aspecs: a) alernaive developmen, b) prevenion and rehabiliaion, c) he eradicaion of illeal coca, and d) inerdicion. Inernaional aid o he value of $952 million over five years was used by he Bolivian overnmen o implemen and coninue he plan; $108 million (11%) were spen on eradicain coca crops, and $700 million (73%) on alernaive developmen, which was based on he five commercially viable crops: banana, pineapple, oil palm, maracuya (a variey of passion frui) and black pepper. 7 Coca was considered by he Incas o be a sacred leaf and is consumpion was limied o he overnin and reliious classes. Riual use is sill he principal moivaion for chewin coca leaf in Peru. 7

8 srucured coloniaion of he Alo Huallaa valley 8. This reion is ideal for coca culivaion due o is environmenal and eoraphical characerisics, in addiion o is proximiy o Colombia and is poor access roues. These condiions, combined wih rowin inernaional demand for drus and an increase in druraffickin, led o he exponenial rowh of culivaed hecares of coca in Peru durin he 1980s and 90s, which became known as he boom de la coca. This increase in coca leaf producion no only eneraed hiher expors of coca pase o Colombia, i also became a source of financin for he uerrilla forces ha esablished hemselves in coca rowin reions. (McClinock 1998). A he sar of he 1980s, he Sendero Luminoso and MRTA uerrilla roups ook conrol of he Alo Huallaa valley and bean reulain prices; hey became he inermediaries beween peasan farmers and dru-raffickers (Obando, 1993). Peru became he world s lares producer of coca oin from 18,000 culivaed hecares in 1969 o 129,000 in Coca rowin also expanded o 16 new areas includin he cenral junle and valley of Apurímac. However, he evoluion of coca rowin in Peru appeared o have reached he end of is expansion. From he second half of he 1990s, producion in Peru bean o fall, reachin 34,000 hecares in 2001, as can be seen in raph 3. Graph 3. Coca producion in Peru Hecares Source: US Sae Deparmen This acceleraed reducion can be explained in erms of he successful policies desined o conrol producion and commercialisaion such as: eradicaion usin oxic herbicides, aerial conrol (he desrucion of he air lif wih Colombia in 1995), he el rino funus and he defea of he Sendero Luminoso uerrilla roup. Currenly, an inernaionally funded projec called he Prorama de Desarrollo Alernaivo de Prevención y Rehabiliación (Proramme for Alernaive Developmen via Prevenion and Rehabiliaion) is in place in Peru. Is chief objecive is o subsiue illici crops for leal ariculural sysems. 8 This valley sraddles he norh of he Deparmen of Huanuco and he souh of he Deparmen of San Marín, 450 km norh-eas of Lima. 8

9 3. Coca Producion in Colombia 3.1. A Brief Hisory Durin he 1960s Colombia became a producer and exporer of marijuana, which was rown in he Sierra Nevada de Sana Mara and he Serranía del Perijá 9. However, he illeal indusry s enih was no o las due o manual eradicaion campains, confiscaions of boas and planes, he desrucion of equipmen used o process narcoics and, principally, o he increased supply of Californian marijuana. Nowadays, marijuana is rown almos exclusively for domesic consumpion. Alhouh some expors o he USA have been deeced, hey are far lower han durin he 1970s (Uribe 1997). Towards he end of he 1970s and he sar of he 1980s he bonana coquera (coca bonana) bean. The raffickers bean by imporin coca base from Bolivia and Peru, and processed i ino cocaine in Colombia for re exporaion o he USA 10. Hih profis enabled he business o rapidly become self-financin. A he same ime, Colombia bean o consolidae domesic coca producion, and crops were esablished in areas far from he economic cenres of he counry (principally he Deparmens of Caqueá, Guaviare and Puumayo). Colombia s increased paricipaion in he lobal dru marke led o he srenhenin of dru raffickin and he consolidaion of he indusry (sill usin impored coca base from Peru and Bolivia). Lare scale dru raffickin offered hue earnins and led o he formaion of he Medellin, Cali and Caribbean Coas Carels, who promoed he verical ineraion of all saes of producion; from rowin he plans, supplyin he precursors, processin, producion and ranspor, o domesically and inernaionally commercialisin he produc via appropriae disribuion neworks. Equally, money launderin mechanisms and processes were creaed. As he dru carels consolidaed heir conrol, urban homicide rose (especially in Medellin and Cali) and he judicial sysem bean o deeriorae (evidenced by risin impuniy) (Sánche and Núñe (2001), Gaviria (2001)). The carels also bean o openly challene he Sae via erroris aacks and he selecive assassinaion (or hreaenin) of poliical leaders and o bribe and blackmail he differen branches of poliics. The Colombian Sae under differen overnmens bean o srenhen he naional police and inellience oranisaions, and, wih he suppor of he US overnmen, bean o persecue he carels. The Medellin and Cali carels were he main ares from 1990 o 1996, by which ime mos of heir leaders had been killed or jailed. As he carels o weaker, conrol of he cocaine business bean o chane hands. One par of he business passed ino he hands of he second or hird 9 Accordin o Rui (1979), marijuana culivaion could have reached 30,000 hecares. 10 The process of converin coca leaf ino cocaine is as follows: he leaves are mixed wih a soluion of kerosene and sodium carbonae, which exracs he alkaloid and produces wha is known as coca pase. The pase is hen reaed wih sulphuric acid and poassium permananae o form cocaine base; finally he base is reaed wih eher and aceone o obain hih qualiy cocaine hydrochloride. 9

10 eneraion of carels (Nore del Valle, Cosa, Medellín, Eje Cafeero), and he much of he res fell under he conrol of armed roups operain illeally (uerrillas and illeal self-defence roups). The producion of coca and he sale of cocaine became one of he roups principal sources of financin 11. Dru raffickin has also become an imporan par of erriorial conrol; i has he double funcion of offerin he roups a social base (in erms of he labour force involved) and he income hey need o escalae and expand heir armed srule. A he end of he 1980s, opium poppies bean o appear on hih-plains and indienous reserves beween 2,200 and 2,800 meers above sea level 12. Accordin o Ramíre (1993) opium poppy rowin ones are characerised by a low insiuional presence, a lack of access roads and low coverae of Sae services. Durin he 1990s here was a dramaic rise in he number of hecares culivaed wih opium poppies in he mounainous areas of he deparmens of Caqueá, Cauca, Huila, Tolima, Cesar, Cundinamarca and Boyacá. Producion of opium poppies has also risen alonside he uerrilla force s expansion (Echandía, 1999). And profis from he producion and raffickin of opium poppies have also become a source of financin for he illeal armed roups Recen Trends Colombia currenly has he mos problemaic level of illici crop rowin in he Andean reion. Over recen years, he counry has one from bein a marinal conribuor o bein he major world producer of coca leaf, no forein cocaine producion 13. Beween 1990 and 1994 i is esimaed ha around 40,000 hecares of coca were bein culivaed in Colombia 14. However, in he second half of he decade, his area increased considerably, from 50,000 hecares in 1995 o 166,000 in 2000 (alhouh in recen years his fiure has fallen). This rowh was due o he desrucion of he air lif beween Bolivia, Peru and Colombia, reduced illici producion in Bolivia and Peru and enhanced demand for narcoics, all accompanied by he illeal roups need for financin Esimain he conribuion of he dru rade o illeal roups coffers is a complicaed exercise. I is esimaed ha 34% of FARC income comes from his aciviy (Badel (1999), usin Comié Inerinsiucional de Lucha conra las Finanas de la Subversión daa). Accordin o Carlos Casaño, commander in chief of he self-defence forces, 70% of his roup s income comes from dru-raffickin. 12 In eoraphical erms, Colombia is exremely suiable for opium poppy culivaion. I has one of he lares ropical hih-plains reions in he world, ha oes from 1,800 o 3,200m above sea level (Ramire, 1993) 13 Around 80% of world annual cocaine producion (esimaed a 700 ons) is produced in Colombia. 14 Saellie informaion from he US Sae Deparmen and he UN, complemened by Naional Police Dru Squad daa. On he oher hand, i is esimaed ha 60% of coca crops are on small landholdins of less han wo hecares, manaed by peasan farmers and indienous people a subsisence level. The oher 40% comes from indusrial crops owned by dru raffickers. 15 The rowh of his aciviy in Colombia is due o is hih levels of profiabiliy, especially in he disribuion sae, is low aro economic cos and he rans-naional naure of he business 10

11 Graph 4. Producion of coca leaf and opium poppies in Colombia Hecares Coca Poppy Source: Colombian Naional Police Force, Aninarcoics Division 16 The eoraphic and spaial expansion of illici crops has been massive, as can be seen in map 1. In 1994 hese crops were only rown in a few deparmens and municipaliies in he souh of Colombia. Suppored by he presence of illeal roups, hey subsequenly spread wildly hrouhou he souh, souh-eas and souh-wes of he counry, as well as in some imporan corridors such as Madalena Medio (he middle Madalena reion). The hree deparmens wih he hihes number of culivaed hecares were Puumayo (60,000), Guaviare (27,000) and Nariño (15,000). From 2001 he number of culivaed hecares fell considerably, reachin 102,000 in The mos sinifican reducions were in Puumayo, Mea, Cauca and Caqueá, mainly due o aerial sprayin. Furhermore, here has been a subsanial amoun of volunary eradicaion in oher deparmens, especially Bolívar, Mea, Cauca and Vichada. 16 The opium poppy daa comes from he second naional aerial census of illici poppy crops, Ocober The 2002 daa comes from he US ani-drus sar John Wales, EL TIEMPO, May , El 60% de la heroína que se consume en Esados Unidos proviene de Colombia. 17 SIMCI daa, Sisema Inerado de Monioreo de Culivos Ilícios (Illici Crop Moniorin Ineral Sysem), usin saellie analysis mehodoloy complemened by aerial informaion on areas wih illeal crops. The reliabiliy of he resuls is esimaed o be +/- 90%. 11

12 Map 1. The evoluion of coca crops in Colombia (by municipaliy) This drop in culivaion has been due o he hree proned approach of curren ani-drus policy: forced eradicaion, he sysemaic inerdicion of he producion chain and alernaive developmen prorammes. Aerial fumiaion has been he mos heavily used ool of he war on drus since he end of he 70s, and is employmen inensified from he mid-90s (see able 1). Beween 1999 and 2001, more han 195,000 hecares were fumiaed 48% of his oal (more han 94,000 hecares) in 2001 alone. Alernaive developmen prorammes, desined o subsiue he coca-cocaine cycle wih leal ariculural iniiaives, have become ever more imporan since he Naional Alernaive Developmen Plan was creaed in 1994, and aain wih Plan Colombia 18. Opium poppy culivaion has, on he oher hand, remained sable a around 6,000 hecares. They are rown in cloud foress and hih-plains reions characerised by low Sae presence, isolaion and a small populaion, e.. Tolima, Cauca, Nariño, Cesar and Huila. 18 By 2001, 54,551 families had benefied from his ype of proram (DNE). 12

13 3.3. Reional Aspecs Coca culivaion in Colombia has expanded in isolaed areas of peasan colonisaion, fores reserves, naural parks and indienous reserves, all of which are characerised by poor ariculural and rain land and precarious social condiions and infrasrucure, and in which armed acors have played a deerminin role. These areas usually experience social (marinaliy and povery), poliical (armed conflic) and economic (ariculural recession) conflics. 78.6% of all coca producion in Colombia is concenraed in he Orinoco and Amaon reions. These are areas wih many fores reserves, enormous hydroloical resources and he lares oil reserves in he counry. Producion in oher areas is lower, bu no less imporan; 8.3% in he Pacific reion, 7.6% in he Andean reion and 5.5% on he Caribbean coas Graph 4. Coca leaf producion by reion Hecares Andean Caribbean Easern Pacific Source: Naional Drus Deparmen, Auhors calculaions Orinoco and Amaon Reion The culivaion, processin and commercialisaion of coca has become one of he main economic aciviies in he reion. An averae of 120,000 hecares were culivaed beween 1999 and 2001, specifically in he Deparmens of Guaviare, Caqueá, Puumayo, Mea and Vichada. Of he 60,000 hecares under culivaion in 1994, 36.4% (22,445) were in Guaviare, 33.6% (20,704) in Caqueá and 23.59% (14,539) in Puumayo. The dynamics hen chaned and Puumayo became he principal producer of coca wih 51% (66,000) of he oal. Guaviare fell o hird place wih 14% (17,619) and hen reained is crown in 2002 wih 27,000 hecares. Producion in he Deparmen of Mea has ained imporance, mainly in he Ariari reion (see annexes, raph 1). Coca producion rew dramaically in Guaviare a he end of he 1970s. Coloniaion of his reion bean a he end of he 19h cenury (Molano, 1996) when imber exracion, rubber and he producion of animal hides were he principal economic aciviies. By 1994, Guaviare was he lares producer of 13

14 coca in he counry, and aerial fumiaion wih lifosao bean. Producion fell by almos 5,000 hecares beween 1994 and 2000 (22,445 o 17,619) 19. Some rowers moved on o Puumayo, which became he principal producer of coca in Colombia in he mid-1990s, alhouh coca had exised in he Deparmen since he 1970s. Puumayo is on he border of Ecuador and Peru, which faciliaes he ranspor of conraband, he dru rade, he imporin of precursors and arms, and he mobilisaion of he workforce from one side of he fronier o he oher (Varas, 2003). The presence and aciviies of armed roups have become a fundamenal variable in he consolidaion of Puumayo as he principal coca reion in Colombia. Map 2. The Evoluion of Coca Crops in he Orinoco Reion Durin he 1970s, coca crops were esablished in deep, well proeced junle ones (Ramire, 2001). Durin he eihies, producion was somewha unsable due o price flucuaions, plaues and eradicaion prorammes. A he sar of he 1990s, Bolivian and Peruvian varieies were inroduced and culivaion expanded rapidly o 66,000 hecares (3.21% of he deparmen s oal surface area), spread over hireen municipaliies 20. The municipaliies wih he hihes levels of culivaion were Puero Asís, Valle del Guamés (La Hormia), Orio, Puero Gumán and Puero Leuiamo, each wih more han 3,000 culivaed hecares (see map 2). 19 Guaviare was he counry s lares producer of coca unil 1994, when aerial sprayin wih lifosao bean. In 2001, 24,000 hecares were under illeal culivaion in four municipaliies: Miraflores (11,777), Calamar (4,966), El Reorno (4,231) and San José del Guaviare (3,089 ha). I has been esimaed ha rowers in Guaviare pick an averae of 825 k of coca leaf per hecare per harves here are 5.7 harvess a year. Annual producion in Guaviare is, herefore, 4.7 meric ons per hecare per year (we weih) (DNE, 2001). 20 I is esimaed ha producers in Puumayo pick an averae of 975 k of coca per harves; here are 4 harvess per year. Toal producion in he deparmen is hus esimaed o be 3.9 meric ons (we weih) per hecare per year (DNE2001). 14

15 In he same way as in Guaviare and Puumayo, coca crops in Caqueá increased from he mid-1970s. The deparmen is now he second lares producer of coca in Colombia. In ,600 hecares were under culivaion in 15 of he deparmen s 16 municipaliies, he mos imporan bein: Caraena del Chairá (13,551), Solano (4,005), San Vicene del Cauán (1,713), Solia (1,170) and Valparaíso (1,240). The remainin municipaliies have less han 1,000 hecares under culivaion 21. In he Deparmens of Mea and Vichada, coca producion has also been of some imporance. Various armed roups are presen in hese deparmens. Increased producion bean in he mid-90s, reachin 10,000 hecares in Mea and 8,000 in Vichada in In he Deparmens of Arauca and Casanare coca rowin has been of lile imporance. They are however sraeic ransi areas for he precursors used in he manufacure of cocaine The Andean Reion Coca producion in he Andean Reion is concenraed in he deparmens of Nore de Sanander (70% of oal producion beween 1999 and 2001), Sanander (25%) and Anioquia (19%). Sanander is a mounainous deparmen (see map 3) wih an economy based around smallholdins 22. I is also an imporan sraeic ranspor corridor wih he Norh of Colombia. All of he illeal armed roups are presen in he deparmen (FARC, ELN, AUC, EPL). The illeal roups are also presen in Anioquia. In his deparmen here have been hih levels of miraion owards he lowlands of Urabá, Bajo Cauca and Madalena Medio, ha have provided a ready workforce for he coca business, all in an environmen of susained uerrilla and paramiliary violence (Reyes, 1997). 21 I is esimaed ha producers pick an averae of 750 k of coca per hecare per harves; here are 5.4 harvess in he year. Thus he annual coca producion in Caquea is esimaed o be 4.1 meric ons per hecare per year, DNE(2001) 22 Apar from crude oil, coal, old, marble and limesone are also produced. 15

16 Map 3. The Evoluion of Coca Crops in he Andean Reion In he Deparmen of Nore de Sanander, 6,700 hecares of coca were culivaed in 2001 in 11 of he deparmen s 39 municipaliies. Sanander, on he oher hand, had 2,800 hecares of coca under culivaion in 24 of is 87 municipaliies. Finally, in Anioquia 3,000 hecares were culivaed in 30 of is 124 municipaliies The Caribbean Reion Approximaely 5% of oal producion comes from he Caribbean reion, concenraed in he Deparmen of Bolívar (82%) and o a lesser exen in Madalena (6,2%), Córdoba (9%) and Cesar (5%) 23. Bolivar had 5,500 hecares under culivaion in 2000, spread over 10 of is 37 municipaliies, mosly in he Madalena Medio area of he souh of he deparmen. The municipaliies where mos coca rowin is concenraed are Sana Rosa, Simií, San Pablo and Canaallo, which are near he Serranía de San Lucas and are radiional uerrilla sronholds, due no only o old minin in he area, which provides income, bu also o he fac ha ha he one is he headquarers of he ELN Cenral Command (COCE). Since 2000, paramiliary aciviy has increased in he area wih he presence of he Liberadores del Río Madalena, Combaienes de la Serranía de San Lucas and Vencedores del Sur frons of he Bloque Cenral Bolívar. 23 In hese areas here exiss a rea inequaliy of land disribuion, from lare scale cale ranches o small scale peasan farmin ha coexis alonside indienous reserves such as la Guajira, la Sierra Nevada de Sana Mara and San Andrés de Soaveno. 16

17 Map 4. The evoluion of Coca Crops in he Caribbean Reion The Pacific Reion The Pacific reion has many sraeic advanaes relaed o coca producion, no leas of which is he fac ha i is he ransi roue for expors leavin via pacific coas pors. 7% of oal coca producion comes from his reion, principally from he deparmens of Cauca and Nariño, and, o a lesser exen, Chocó and Valle. Map 5. The Evoluion of Coca Crops in he Pacific Reion

18 3,190 hecares were under culivaion in 1994 in he deparmen of Cauca. This fiure had rown o 6,291 by 1999, bu hen fell o 2,900 in However, he number of municipaliies in which coca is rown rose from 6 o 12 (ou of 39) beween 1994 and Coca producion in Nariño rose rapidly durin he las decade, reachin a peak of 9,300 hecares in In 2001 his fiure fell o 2,000 hecares. Similar o he case of Cauca, he eoraphical disseminaion of coca in Nariño rose, from 6 o 19 (ou of 62) municipaliies Inerprein Coca Producion in Colombia Mos explanaions of he risin rowh of coca producion in Colombia poin o socioeconomic facors such as povery, marinaliy, he unequal disribuion of wealh and income, economic recessions and weak, inadequae Sae inervenion, amons oher aspecs. The mos recurrin hypohesis o explain risin coca producion in Colombia is ha he illici dru business is hihly profiable, and ha he ones in which i is mos prevalen are economically precarious. Accordin o Varas (1999a), he coca business daes back o he end of he 1970s, when various oranised roups formed in Miraflores and bean o exrac cocaine from coca leaves due o risin inernaional demand for he dru and he hih profiabiliy of he business. Alhouh here is lile consensus as o why he business rew in Colombia, i is clear ha he phenomenon bean in he lae 70s and ha i was srenhened by he appearance of dru-raffickin oranisaions. The iniial hypoheses reardin he consolidaion of illeal dru producion in Colombia mainain ha he main causes are adverse social and economic condiions, he absence of a sron Sae and he eoraphical characerisics of he counry. Rocha (2000) arues ha illici crops bean o be rown in nonmodern reional economies where he radiional aciviies were ariculure and minin, ha experienced an unequal disribuion of land ownership and ha were more vulnerable o relaive price chanes. Thus he producion of illici crops was concenraed in isolaed peasan farmin ones ha were a lon way from he economic cenres of he counry and were poliically unsable (Rocha 1997, Rocha and Vivas, 1998 and Thoumi, 2002). Similarly, Varas (1994) found ha illici crops were mos prevalen in reions wih a oal absence of Sae presence and hih levels of violence, where uerrilla roups laer arrived o impose order and suppor he peasan farmers. Varas (1999a), arues ha facors such as a weak Sae presence, armed illeal roups and he producion and raffickin of illici crops enerae hiher levels of violence in a reion. The problem worsens as i spreads o neihbourin municipaliies. Thoumi (1994) saes ha Colombia was he perfec place for he esablishmen and consolidaion of narcoics producion due o he lack of Sae presence, he paronal sysem, he violen naure of sociey and he exisin culure of illeal expors. The lare number of Colombian immirans in he USA faciliaed he 18

19 developmen of disribuion neworks. However, Thoumi (2002) rejecs he arumens relaed o povery and inequaliy as he roo cause of he illeal economy and denies he relaionship beween povery and he culivaion of illici crops. Oher hypoheses mainain ha reional crises durin he 1980s in he coon, exiles, suar and emerald markes drove he developmen of coca producion. To hese facors may be added he crisis of profiabiliy and compeiiviy, he difficulies relaed o finance and he accumulaion of capial, he limiaions associaed wih obainin advanced echnoloy and a precarious commercial infrasrucure (Beancour and García,1994). Similarly, De Remenería (2001) saes ha he coca indusry was esablished due o he unjus condiions of inernaional commerce ha Lain American counries have o face. Specifically, he auhor sudies he appearance of illici crops in erms of he adverse condiions creaed by an ariculural crisis. Accordin o he auhor, he oriins of he crisis are he subsidies ha indusrialised counries bean o pay heir farmers, which hen eneraed compeiive disadvanaes for producers in developin counries. The response has been o minimise coss by exensively usin land, amplifyin he ariculural fronier or subsiuin producion wih naural drus. Mora e al (1986) sae ha colonisaion and coca crops do no enerae permanen social riches in an area; on he conrary, hey enerae resource and labour exploiaion. Tovar (1993) considers ha coca has become an alernaive source of capial in marinal communiies ha wan o beer heir condiions and overcome he exclusion hey have suffered a he hands of he radiional dominan classes. The invesiaions menioned show some of he diverse hypoheses reardin he oriin, causes and consequences of illici dru producion in Colombia; mos of hem are based on much qualiaive bu lile quaniaive evidence. However, no invesiaion has been carried ou abou he spaial dynamics of illici crops and heir relaionship wih illeal armed roups. Thus, he purpose of his invesiaion is o offer empirical evidence o show ha he inensificaion of he Colombian armed conflic has been he main cause behind he expansion of illici crops in Colombia. 4. Rebellion: Financin Armed Conflic 4.1. Recen Lieraure on Financin Armed Conflic Inernal armed conflics may be defined as he confronaion beween Sae forces and oranised armed roups (wheher hey be rebels or insurens, ec.) ha are fihin for a deermined poliical, ideoloical or economic end, includin, in some cases, he subversion of a pre-esablished social order. I should be noed ha alhouh social, poliical, economic and inernaional condiions may be he cause of confronaion, hey are ofen no in hemselves enouh o enerae armed conflic. One of he mos imporan facors relaed o 19

20 he rowh, developmen and consolidaion of a rebel roup is is financial viabiliy 24 ; his is is uaranee of survival, and allows he roup o scale up is armed aciviies. The financial viabiliy of rebels or insurens, and more specifically he depredaion of producive aciviies in he one in which hey operae, have become he subjec of economic analysis. In recen lieraure, insurens are seen as poliical aens 25 whose final objecive is o maximise heir own benefis via he depredaion of producive economic aciviies, wheher hey be leal or no. Hirshleifer (1990) saes ha a conflic depends on he level of profiabiliy of depredaion each roup of conenders invess is effors (milians, arms, muniions, ec.) wih he hope of winnin a share of he bouny. Thus, he resul of he conflic depends on he rebel roup s abiliy o ransform is resources ino an offensive capaciy in differen eoraphical condiions and human conexs. If boh conenders enjoy an increase in heir wealh, he riches of he wo will advance, and smaller conenders will become non-viable or will become dominaed by he bier players over ime. Similarly, Grossman (1991,1994) developed eneral equilibrium models o analyse insurrecion and revoluionary movemens, in which rebellion is a nonproducive aciviy ha compees wih producive aciviies for sociey s scarce resources. In he models here are wo main aens: he overnmen and peasan families 26. The resul of he confronaion depends on he echnoloies of insurrecion, producion and repression. In he case ha insurrecion is successful, he peasans bouny will be he overnmen s resources and cliens. Equally, Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2001) and Collier (2000), believe ha civil wars arise only if here are financially viable oranisaions, and ha he circumsances under which hey exis are enuinely excepional. There is, herefore, a wide ap beween popular percepions of he causes of conflic and he resuls of recen economic analyses. Popular percepion sees rebellion as a social movemen moivaed by exreme disconen. In realiy i maers lile wheher he rebels are moivaed by reed, by a desire for power or due o heir disconen, which is why he feasibiliy of depredaion is a cause of conflic. However, one mus remember ha he end resul of depredaion is differen beween rebel roups and criminal oranisaions. Accordin o Resrepo (2001) an oranisaion in conflic reinvess all is resources in he armed srule, ha is, i increases is miliary apparaus and he offensive use of violence 27. Criminal oranisaions, on he oher hand, look owards increasin profis. In his conex, Guiérre (2003) saes ha Collier and Hoefler s reedy war hypohesis may no be sricly applied o he Colombian case. In spie of he fac 24 I is imporan o noe ha financial viabiliy is a necessary, bu no he only, facor in he eneraion of a conflic siuaion. 25 In some cases, rebels are seen as an exreme manifesaion of oranised crime. 26 The overnmen hopes o maximise income from is cliens, and hus axes land and producive aciviies and employs soldiers o dissuade or repress insurrecion. For heir par, peasan families respond o overnmen policies by assinin ime o producion, miliancy or insurrecion. 27 This is no o say ha op officials are no remuneraed, ha hierarchy does no deermine he level of remuneraion, nor ha here is no personal enrichmen, on whaever side, due o he conflic. 20

21 ha economic incenives for combaans are precarious, here is a deree of individual moivaion o fih ha he reedy war heory canno explain. In addiion, his hypohesis does no conemplae possible inerrelaions beween he differen roups and social oranisaions. The Colombian armed conflic bean in he 1960s and, afer a lon period in hibernaion durin which is rowh was precarious and limied o a few rural areas, especially colonisaion ones a he froniers of ariculural expansion, he rebel roups (FARC, ELN and illeal self-defence forces specifically) bean a process of acceleraed rowh in he 1980s. This numerical rowh and erriorial expansion, as well as a sinifican increase in heir capaciy for miliary acion, was linked o heir new economic prosperiy (Ranel, 2001). This prosperiy came from he exploiaion of leal and illeal expors, wihou direcly paricipain in hem and hus wihou incurrin he direc coss of miliary aciviy (Salaar y Casillo 2001). The depredaion of producive aciviies by armed roups in Colombia has aken place hrouh hree saes accordin o Ranel (2000): predaory, parasiic and symbioic. The predaory sae is when he roups have very weak links wih he populaion and, herefore, heir aciviies require minimum exposure and produce one-off benefis (aciviies such as erriorial piracy, bank robberies, random kidnappins, occasional exorion, amons ohers). The parasiic phase beins followin lon-erm social infilraion and includes aciviies such as proecion based exorion, amons ohers. Finally, here is he symbioic sae in which he uerrilla economy becomes an ineral par of he reional economy and he disincion beween leal and illeal aciviies becomes blurred. The principal sources of financin for illeal armed roups, in whichever sae, have radiionally been exorion, differen ypes of robbery, kidnappin, scams, piracy, he hef of municipal fiscal resources and, recenly, dru-raffickin; he laer havin become a principal source of financin 28. In fac, he uerrillas role in he dru rade was iniially el ramaje (a by weih ax on he producion of coca leaf or coca base of beween 10% and 15%) chared o peasan farmers, and he axes levied on he laboraories, runways and river pors used by druraffickers, in exchane for uaraneein heir securiy. Durin he 1990s, uerrilla paricipaion rew considerably; hey esablished heir own sysem of producion, ranspor and commercialisaion of boh precursors and he final produc (La Roa, 1996; Varas, 2003). The way in which he uerrillas conrol and reulae he coca business in Colombia is a classic example of he symbioic relaionship beween insurency and he reional economy, and, in some areas, he disincion beween wha is leal and wha is no has all bu disappeared. Similarly, he illeal self-defence roups rew and developed beween 1982 and 1994, o offer securiy o he populaion in he face of uerrilla acions and o 28 Varas (1999a) analysed uerrillas finances over he period and concluded ha 44.4% came from dru-raffickin; 27.4% from exorion and robbery; 21.9% from kidnappin, and 6.3% from municipal funds (Quoed in Thoumi, 2002). 21

22 proec land ownership 29. In 1994 he firs paramiliary summi was held wih he objecive of unifyin he command srucure, concenrain operaions and expandin he movemen hrouhou he counry. This sraey was consolidaed by offensive acion, and in he mid-1990s, he exponenial rowh of violen paramiliary aciviy bean. This rowh happened alonside a rowh in heir sources of financin, which unil hen had been based on he paymen of obliaory fees for heir securiy services, donaions from lare-scale landowners and he middle classes and, finally, heir links wih he dru-rade. In recen years, uerrilla (FARC and ELN) and paramiliary links wih he producion, processin and commercialisaion of illeal drus have become ever sroner (Echandía, 1999). A srule has evolved for he conrol of sraeic ones, relaed as much o finances as o he armed srule iself 30. The money ha comes from hese sources of financin is reinvesed in srenhenin he war machine. Alhouh his does no allow us o esablish a direc link beween illici crops and violence, i does show he enormous imporance of his aciviy o uerrilla finances and he dru-rade. Boía (2003) saed ha he FARC are dedicaed o expandin heir sphere of influence o include he municipaliies ha uaranee heir coninued financin. Sánche e al (2003) conclude ha dru-raffickin is a crime ha is closely linked o he expansion of illeal armed roups, ha is, ha he increase in illeal crops is he resul of hese roups expansion. Alhouh rea advances have been made in erms of analysin he relaionship beween armed roups and coca producion in Colombia, no analysis has ye been made ino he dynamics of illeal crop expansion and is relaionship wih he armed conflic. Below we presen a heoreical model ha explains his relaionship A Theoreical Model of he Relaionship Beween Coca and he Conflic The Model This secion aims o develop a heoreic model o explain he relaionship beween coca producion and he armed conflic. I beins wih he assumpion ha illeal armed roups have he fundamenal objecive of winnin erriorial conrol he mechanism hey use o weaken he Sae or rival roups, enerae income and consolidae a social suppor base (Gonále e al, 2002). This model aims o esablish he iner-emporal decision relaionship beween he erriorial conrol enjoyed by an armed roup and he recruimen of he forces i 29 In Colombia, he oranisaion of armed civilian roups by he Sae or local leaders bean in he 19 h cenury. The pracice effecively ended around he 1940s and 50s, when he armed roups were formed ha conribued o he period known as La Violencia. In 1965, decree 3398 defined he defence of he naion as he oranisaion provision and employmen of all he inhabians and resources of he counry, in peaceime, o uaranee naional independence and insiuional sabiliy and ave emporary powers o he Minisry of Defence o arm civilians. The decree was incorporaed ino law 48, Thoumi (2002) saes ha fihin beween he uerrillas and paramiliaries for conrol of areas such as Urabá, is an indicaion of boh roups need o conrol sraeic dru-raffickin roues, which are also used o impor arms and precursors. 22

23 needs o expand is miliary acions. Illici crops will be he resul of his ineremporal relaionship, wih he conexual parameers of fumiaion policies and he Sae s miliary aciviies. A dynamic opimisaion model was developed accordin o he basic model developed by Ramsey. I beins wih he followin homoeneous funcion of deree coca producion (ha is, consan reurns o scale): C 1 = Af ( γz 1+ β, N G ) (1) Where: C = coca producion durin period. Z = he erriorial conrol he armed roup enjoys in he reion. N = he populaion in he area conrolled by he armed roup. G = he number of acive uerrilla fihers. λ = he area (%) dedicaed o coca producion. β = he level of eradicaion pracised by he auhoriies. A= he producion facor. Equaion 1 in per capia erms 31 (lower case leers): 1 c = Af ( γ,1 ) (2) 1+ β Equally, he roup has o confron he followin budeary resricion a each momen of ime: G C = wn ( N G ) + wg + P Z + w (3) Where: w n = he salary earned by he populaion involved in coca producion. w = he salaries and equipmen coss of acive uerrilla fihers P = he cos of mainainin erriorial conrol Equaion 3 implies ha he income obained from coca producion is spen on coca workers salaries, mainainin roops, mainainin erriorial conrol and recruiin new members. Once aain, in per capia erms: ( w n (4) c = wn 1 ) + w + P + w + 31 I is assumed ha funcion f is sricly concave and ha i saisfies he condiions of Inada: f ( 0) = 0, f '(0) = y '( ) = 0 f. 23

24 Where n, represens he populaion rowh rae in he reion. The preferences of he armed roup over ime can be represened by usin he ineer of insan uiliy: u o = m ) 0 θ ( e d (5) Which implies ha immediae uiliy depend posiively on he erriorial conrol ha he roup enjoys in he reion,, where θ represens he armed roups iner-emporal discoun rae. Furhermore: m '( ) 0, m ''( ) 0 and θ >0 Thus, he armed roups problem of maximisaion is: Max θ u = m( ) e d 0 o s.. 1 Af ( γ,1 ) wn (1 ) w 1+ β = w w n P Where he conrol variable is and he sae variable is. This means ha he armed roup mus find an opimum pah o erriorial conrol ha allows i o maximise uiliy, subjec o iner-emporal resricions. The opimum pah o erriorial conrol deermines he opimum number of uerrilla roops and coca producion durin each period. Thus, he Hamilonian is: H 1 Af ( γ,1 1+ β ) + µ ) w (1 n = θ e m( w ) w w n P Given ha µ = λ e θ Therefore, he firs order condiions for he Hamilonian and he ransversal condiions are, respecively: 24

25 25 (1) 0 ),1 ( 1 1 ) ( ' = + + = w P Af m e H γ β γ λ δ δ θ (2) = + + = µ γ β λ δ δ θ n w n w w w Af e H ),1 ( = 0 Lim µ Havin derived he firs order condiions and wih some alebra, we found he dynamic equaions for conrol variable, and for sae variable. = n P Af Af m m w n w w w Af w ),1 ( 1 1 ),1 ( 1 1 ) ( ) ( ),1 ( 1 1,, 1 γ β γ γ β γ γ β θ (6) n w P n w w w Af + = ) (1 ),1 ( 1 1 γ β (7) In a saionary sae, = = 0. The phase diaram, in plane (, ) allows us o deermine he equilibrium dynamics ( *, *), and esablish wheher i is sable 32. The phase diaram and he curves = = 0 are presened in he raph below: 32 To deermine he saionary sae curves, we assumed a Cobb-Doulas producion funcion, and plausible values were iven o he differen parameers used in he model.

26 = 0 = 0 The differen sins are due o he resul of hree plausible equilibriums, which depend on he sin of he followin derivaives also on wheher he curve inflecion. Case 1 δ δ =0 cus he curve < 0 in δ, δ and δ δ, and =0 before or afer is poin of = 0 = 0 * A * In case 1, equilibrium is esablished a poin A under he assumpion ha δ δ < 0 δ δ in, δ > 0, and δ > 0. As can be seen, he resulin equilibrium is a saddle poin. 26

27 Case 2 = 0 = 0 * B * In case 2, equilibrium is reached a poin B, wih he assumpion ha δ δ, δ <0, and δ <0. Similar o case A, he resulin equilibrium is also a saddle poin. δ δ > 0 in Case 3 = 0 = 0 * C * In case 3, equilibrium is reached a poin C, wih he assumpion ha δ δ < 0 in, δ δ > 0, and δ δ < 0. The resulin equilibrium is sable. 27

28 Comparaive Saisics In his secion we aim o esablish he impac of eradicaion effors β carried ou by he auhoriies, and he cos of conrollin he erriory, P, on he previously menioned equilibriums. Chanes in eradicaion iniiaives β The dynamic equaions = 0 and = 0 are oally derived, o obain he sins δ of δβ δ and : δβ 1 Af δ 1+ β = δβ 1 γ Af 1+ β 1 1, ( γ,1 ) ( λ,1 ) > 0 (8) δ = δβ w n w 1 Af ( γ,1 ) 2 (1 + β ) 1 wn Af1 ( λ,1 ) 1+ β > 0 (9) The followin raph shows he shifs of curves = 0 y = 0 and reflecs chanes in eradicaion effors ha deermine he new levels of equilibrium for and. * * =0 = 0 = 0 = 0 * * The resuls of he comparaive saisics show ha in he face of chanes o eradicaion effors, he illeal armed roups choose o consolidae heir 28

29 erriorial presence, and sacrifice recruimen effors. Thus, when faced wih an increase in eradicaion effors, erriorial conrol increases and he number of fihers in he oranisaion falls (see he wo cases menioned in he appendix). To evaluae he impac of a chane in β on coca producion we sared from he base of equaion (1) ha, once he opimum levels of * and * have been found, can be expressed hus: c 1 = Af ( γ *,1 *) (1) 1+ β Therefore: δc 1 = δβ (1 + β ) (11) 2 1 Af ( γ *,1 *) + A f 1+ β δ * ( γ *,1 *) + δβ f δ * ( γ *,1 *) δβ I can be seen ha he firs erm of his expression is always neaive, whils he δ * second depends on he sins and maniude of δβ δ * and. The oal effec δβ is, herefore, ambiuous. If he second erm is posiive, and lower han he firs, coca producion falls as a resul of he increased probabiliy of eradicaion. However, if he second erm is posiive and larer han he firs, i is possible ha coca producion rises in spie of increased eradicaion effors 33. Chanes in he price or cos of erriorial conrol P Accordin o he equaions, curve = 0 is no affeced by a chane in he cos of erriorial conrol in a reion P, whils he effec or shif of curve = 0 followin a chane in P resuls in: δ δp = w n w w 1 n Af 1+ β 1 ( λ,1 ) > 0 (12) Thus he new equilibriums are: 33 The simulaions used a Cobb-Doulas producion funcion and reasonable parameers, and always showed a reducion in coca producion followin increased eradicaion effors. 29

30 * * = 0 = 0 = 0 * * As can be seen in he raph, if he cos of mainainin erriorial conrol, P, rises, reaer effors are made owards consolidain conrol, o he derimen of he number of combaans (see he oher wo cases in he annexes). In erms of he effec of he increased cos of erriorial conrol on coca producion we find ha: δ c 1 δ * δ * = A f ( γ *,1 *) + f ( γ *,1 *) δp 1+ β δp δp (13) Once aain, he resuls are ambiuous and depend on he sins and δ * δ maniudes of and *. δp δp 5. Coca and Armed Conflic in Colombia 5.1. The Georaphy of he Armed Conflic and is Relaionship wih Coca A he sar of he 1980s, uerrilla and paramiliary aciviy was limied o a few rural areas, especially coloniaion ones a he fronier of ariculural expansion. However, he map of he conflic has chaned considerably since he 1990s. The armed conflic has exended o include almos all naional erriory (Gonále e al, 2002), and has been linked o he search for sraeic ones of financin and armed conflic. 30

31 Since he mid-90s, FARC sraey has included he harassmen of he civilian populaion, confronaions wih he Colombian army, as well as he desire o srenhen is conrol of differen reions. Thus, his uerrilla roup s miliary acions have been focussed owards erriorial conrol, no jus of colonisaion ones and areas of illici crops, bu also of economically rich reions, all in he conex of is sraey of confronin he Sae (Gonále e al, 2002). This uerrilla roup has, herefore, chaned is condiion from bein a rural uerrilla force, wih an influence only in periphery ones, o becomin a force in urban cenres ha are ineraed o he nucleus of domesic producion 34. Mos areas in which he FARC are acive are also illici crop rowin areas, as can be seen in map 6. This is he resul, in erms of our hypohesis, of he expansion of he conflic. The Bloque Sur s one of influence covers he deparmens of Caqueá and Puumayo, which are he wo areas wih he hihes levels of coca producion (Vicepresidencia de la República, 2002). Map 6. FARC Aciviy and he Presence of Coca Crops in Colombia Durin he 1990s, he Ejércio de Liberación Nacional (ELN) also bean a erriorial expansion process concenraed in he norh of Colombia, wih 5 frons, he mos imporan of which is he Nororienal ha operaes in he deparmen of Sanander. The oher frons operae in souhern Bolivar (Serranía 34 The FARC now has 23,000 fihers divided ino 62 frons ha operae hrouhou he counry. The frons form par of he 5 blocks: he bloque Caribe, ha operaes on he Alanic coas, he bloque Cenral ha operaes in Tolima, Huila and Cundinamarca, he bloque Sur, ha operaes in Nariño, Puumayo and Caqueá, he bloque Orienal ha operaes in Mea, Vichada and Guaviare and he bloque Jóse María Córdoba ha operaes in Urabá and Anioquia. 31

32 de San Lucas), Anioquia, Cauca and he souh of Huila. The ELN is also beinnin o operae in Tolima and Cundinamarca. The roup has 41 frons and a oal of abou 5,000 combaans. This roup s erriorial expansion is concenraed in ones rich in naural resources: oil, coal, old and emeralds. As in he case of he FARC, his expansion sraey is linked o he search for sources of financin, he mos imporan of which is he exploiaion of exracive economic aciviies 35. The ELN s relaionship wih dru producion is mos imporan in he Bloque Nore, specifically in souhern Bolívar, a sraeic coca producion one in he Caribbean reion. Map 7. ELN Aciviy and he Presence of Coca Crops in Colombia The illeal self-defence roups have also enjoyed susained rowh since he mid-90s. They wen from 850 members in 1992 o 8,150 in 2000, which allowed hem o consolidae heir power, especially in norhwes Colombia (Anioquia, Córdoba, Sucre, Bolívar, and even Nore de Sanander) and o advance on owards he souh and eas of Colombia 36. The self-defence roups obain heir finances principally from coca culivaion and dru-raffickin, alhouh hey also obain income from exorin ariculural and cale farmers. They also use a sysem of exorion in coca and opium poppy rowin reions under heir 35 I has been esimaed ha around 66% of ELN income comes from exorion, followed by kidnappin (28%), and dru raffickin (6%) (Vicepresidencia de la República, 2002). 36 Accordin o Gonále e al (2002) Urabá, norhern Anioquia, Bajo Cauca Anioqueño, Madalena Medio, souhern Bolivar, Cesar and Caaumbo are an eas-wes corridor ha has become he cenre of confronaions beween armed roups, especially he paramiliary and FARC, ha have lead o he ELN s miliary and erriorial recession. 32

33 conrol, namely souhern Bolívar, he Caaumbo Valley, Mea, Guaviare, Caqueá and Puumayo, where he self-defence forces chare securiy quoas o coca rowin peasan farmers (Miniserio de Defensa, 2000). Map 8. Paramiliary Aciviy and he Presence of Coca Crops 5.2. The Spaial Relaionship Beween he Armed Conflic and Coca Crops Alhouh he direc relaionship beween illici crops and he armed conflic has been exensively sudied, he paerns of he relaionship and spaial diffusion beween hese wo aciviies has no been sudied a all. In his secion we will analyse hese cluser paerns and he overspill of coca rowin ino neihbourin municipaliies. We will also examine he characerisics of he dynamic relaionship beween he aciviies of illeal armed acors and coca producion in Colombia, usin spaial analysis echniques Spaial Indicaors Of The Armed Conflic And Coca Crops In his secion we will presen a se of indicaors ha relae coca crops (hecares under culivaion a municipal level) o he armed conflic (aacks on municipaliies by illeal armed acors), in order o deermine he spaial associaion paerns ha exis beween he eniies under invesiaion. The behaviour of he variables in a eoraphic uni and in heir neihbourin 37 Specifically, Local Spaial Associaion Indicaors (LISA) were used, accordin o Cohen and Tia s mehodoloy (1999) used o analyse violen behaviour in Pisbur, Pennsylvania. 33