Norfolk s Story October 2017

Transcription

1 Norfolk s Story October 2017 Version 8.0 Page 1 of 55

2 Contents 1 Key findings 3 2 Introduction Purpose of Norfolk s Story Statement on data Norfolk the place an overview 8 3 Norfolk s population Current population profile Future population profile 13 4 Norfolk both urban and rural Classification Population by district Population by age 19 5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk Income Deprivation indices Child poverty Fuel poverty 27 6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk Children s and young people s health Adults health and lifestyle Disease and poor health Life expectancy and causes of death 33 7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk National context Local picture of crime and disorder 35 8 Norfolk s economy Structure of the local economy Economic competitiveness Labour market 46 9 Education and skills in Norfolk Educational attainment Skills Concluding remarks 54 Page 2 of 55

3 1 Key findings This report highlights key and cross-cutting issues for Norfolk such as changes in Norfolk s population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision. It is a high level report that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans. As a result, Norfolk s Story is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation. This revised version contains the most up to date data and information available at the time of publication. Norfolk s population Norfolk s population is around 892,900, with more people living in King s Lynn & West Norfolk and Norwich and fewer people living in Great Yarmouth and North Norfolk. Over the decade from 2007, Norfolk s population has increased by 6.9%. Norfolk s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9%). The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and this varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich. There are around 130 languages spoken in Norfolk. English is not the first language of around 7,800 school children in the county. Norfolk s population could rise by an estimated 60,600 over the decade to this is an increase of 6.9%. South Norfolk, Norwich and Breckland are projected to be the fastest growing districts in the county. In the main, Norfolk has an ageing population. It is expected that around 26% of the population will be aged 65 and over by The 85+ population is projected to grow significantly with a 34% increase by Norfolk s population is projected to exceed one million by Norfolk both urban and rural While Norfolk s land area is around 93% rural, just over half our residents live in an environment that can be classed as urban. Over the past six years, there has been a shift in where people live in Norfolk, with an increase in numbers of people living in urban settings and a corresponding reduction of people living in rural settings. All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban areas and none of Norfolk s districts is wholly rural. Page 3 of 55

4 There has been a shift in the county s urban/rural split at district level over the last six years, with people living in an urban setting markedly increasing in Breckland, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and South Norfolk. Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its urban/rural split compared with six years ago, but conversely with an increase in people living in a rural setting. People aged 45 to 64 and older people aged 65+ are more likely to live in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0 to 15, younger adults aged 16 to 29 and adults aged 30 to 44. Almost 60% of people aged 65+ live in rural areas. Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk The average annual gross pay in Norfolk is around 20,400 over the last year Norfolk s pay gap has narrowed compared with national pay levels. King s Lynn & West Norfolk has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with North Norfolk having the largest decrease. The Indices of Deprivation 2015 show that Norfolk has experienced an increase in relative deprivation compared with Of Norfolk s 538 LSOAs, 237 have moved to a more deprived decile compared with Around 68,200 Norfolk residents live in areas which have been classified as being among the 10% most deprived in England. The most deprived areas in Norfolk are still concentrated in the urban areas of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, King s Lynn and Thetford. Great Yarmouth is the twentieth most deprived lower tier local authority nationally. There are around 29,300 children living in low-income families in Norfolk. Norwich, Great Yarmouth and King s Lynn & West Norfolk each have higher rates of children living in low-income families than the Norfolk average. There are around 36,400 Norfolk households in fuel poverty. All seven local authority areas of Norfolk have decreased (improved) numbers of households in fuel poverty compared with the previous year. North Norfolk continues to have the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the county. Health and wellbeing in Norfolk Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years have reduced in Norfolk every year from 2009 to 2014, but there was a slight increase in 2015 to 295. Despite a mainly reducing trend over recent years, Norfolk has a significantly higher rate of women smoking during pregnancy (at the time of delivery) than the England average. Page 4 of 55

5 Over recent years, Norfolk s level of childhood obesity peaked in 2011/12, and since then has levelled off. Over recent years, prevalence of smoking in Norfolk adults peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased in line with the England average. Around 4,600 people died from smoking related illnesses in Norfolk during the period 2013 to Two in three Norfolk adults are classed as overweight or obese. Four in ten Norfolk adults do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their health. Overall, Norfolk people rate their life satisfaction and happiness more highly than the England average, and their anxiety levels as lower than the average. Around 47,400 people in Norfolk have a recorded diagnosis of diabetes, and the level has been increasing over recent years. Falls are the largest cause of emergency hospital admissions for older people and there were almost 1,300 in Norfolk as a result of hip fractures in 2015/16. During the three year period 2013 to 2015, in Norfolk around 290 people killed themselves and the level of self-harm is significantly worse than the England average. Over the past five years, Norfolk has experienced increasing levels of people with dementia. Life expectancy is 6.4 years lower for men and 3.0 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Norfolk than in the least deprived areas. Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk For most people Norfolk is very safe - it has one of the lowest crime rates in the country. Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police in Norfolk increased by around 5.6% over the 12 months to March The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 residents for Norfolk has increased to 56.9, which continues to be better (lower) than the national rate. The number of ASB incidents recorded by the police in Norfolk has slightly increased over the last year this bucks the trend of declining numbers of ASB in Norfolk over recent years. Only Breckland and North Norfolk have experienced decreases in total police recorded crime over the last year, with the other five districts seeing increases. Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates than the Norfolk average. Norfolk s Crime Severity Score is better (lower) than the scores for the region and nationally, however, Norfolk s score has increased more when compared with the previous year. Page 5 of 55

6 Norfolk s economy The most significant industry sector in Norfolk, in employment terms, continues to be wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. The next most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be human health and social work activities. Employment in accommodation and food service activities has decreased in Norfolk compared with the previous year, but remains at a higher level than for the region and nationally. Norfolk has a relatively high proportion of part-time jobs compared with national and regional averages. Over the last ten years, the proportion of people employed in higher paid occupations in Norfolk has been consistently much higher than other occupational groups, with an increasing trend. During 2016, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in Norfolk is around 7,900, which is an increase of around 500 on Broadland and South Norfolk stand out as areas with significantly lower rates of NINo registrations compared with the other districts. Norfolk s GVA per capita has steadily increased in recent years, but is typically much lower than that of the UK. Overall, the average weekly gross pay for full-time employee jobs during 2016 for Norfolk was , which is around 9% below national pay. Over the last year, Norfolk s employment and unemployment rates are improved. Education and skills in Norfolk At EYFS, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard (a Good Level of Development) in 2017 has increased slightly since 2016 and remains in line with the national average. The percentage of pupils in Norfolk exceeding EYFS Early Learning Goals in 2017 is around half the 2016 national average, and much lower in some goals. For free school meals pupils the percentages are very low. At KS2, teacher assessment in writing rose nationally for 2017, but in Norfolk fewer pupils were assessed as meeting the expected standard. Mathematics results in Norfolk improved most significantly by seven percentage points. At KS4, 62.1% of Norfolk pupils achieved a 9-4 pass in English and maths for 2017, which is below the national average of 63.5%. Girls out-perform boys. Although Norfolk has a worse rate of higher qualifications within the working age population, the county has improved more quickly over the year when compared with the region and nationally. Around 43, to 64 year olds in Norfolk have no qualifications. The number of apprenticeships starts for Norfolk has increased compared with the previous year, and at a higher rate than regional and national averages. Page 6 of 55

7 2 Introduction 2.1 Purpose of Norfolk s Story Norfolk County Council works with a wide range of partners from the public, private, voluntary and community sectors, in order to achieve shared ambitions and objectives. Local authorities, together with other partners, collect a range of data and evidence to support service decision making and resource allocation. Norfolk s Story aims to bring key evidence together, along with nationally published data, to provide a robust analysis of Norfolk. The analysis will highlight key and cross-cutting issues such as changes in our population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision. This means that policy making at all levels is based around a shared understanding of local challenges and help make sure that interventions delivered by different partners are aligned and complementary. Norfolk s Story is intended to be a high level report of key information that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans, such as the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), the Local Economic Assessment (LEA), the Strategic Economic Plan and Norfolk s Transport Plan. As a result, this report is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation. 2.2 Statement on data The data contained in this report comes from a range of national and local sources and are the most recent figures available to illustrate the current picture in Norfolk. Sources and dates of data have been acknowledged throughout the report. The data used in this report is at various geographical levels, depending on what level the data is available at and the most appropriate level to display the data. Some data will be at local authority or district level, some at Middle level Super Output Area (MSOA) and some at Lower level Super Output Area (LSOA) 1. In order to provide more context, local and national comparator data has been included where possible. It is acknowledged that this report will not include everything about Norfolk and the people of Norfolk, but it does contain key information to present a contextual picture. Additional information can be found on Norfolk Insight, which may deal with some areas in more detail ( Norfolk Insight is the county s Local Intelligence System and the host of Norfolk s online JSNA. This is a public-facing website which presents key data for Norfolk and allows this to be downloaded. 1 Within England and Wales a Lower Layer (minimum population of 1,000 and maximum population of 3,000) and a Middle Layer (minimum population of 5,000 and maximum population of 15,000) were introduced in Unlike electoral wards, these SOA layers are of consistent size across the country and will not be subjected to regular boundary change. Page 7 of 55

8 2.3 Norfolk the place an overview Norfolk is made up of seven local authority areas - Norwich City; Broadland District; South Norfolk District; Breckland District; North Norfolk District; King s Lynn & West Norfolk Borough; and Great Yarmouth Borough (Figure 2.1). Norfolk is a large county of around 551,000 hectares 2, with a population of around 892,900 3 and 393,000 households 4. Norwich is the only major city in the county and there are also three large towns - Great Yarmouth, King s Lynn and Thetford. The estimated proportion of Norfolk s population living in an urban setting has increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.9% by 2016, with the corresponding reduction of people living in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.1% by Figure 2.1: Map showing Norfolk district boundaries Source: Norfolk County Council Norfolk s natural environment is made up of a combination of outstanding coastline (much of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), some of the unique and internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and woodland. The Broads is a nationally designated area of national park equivalent 2 ONS using Ordnance Survey material, Standard Area Measurements ONS, mid-2016 population estimates 4 ONS, 2014-based household projections 5 ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014 Page 8 of 55

9 status, where the Broads Authority is the local planning authority and has special responsibilities for the area s management. Norfolk has around 6,100 miles of road. In terms of primary road transport connections (Figure 2.2), the county has no motorways, but there are strategic trunk roads that provide road connections to the rest of the region and the wider UK. The A47 trunk road crosses the county west to east, linking to Peterborough and the midlands. The A17, although not a trunk road, provides a main road link westwards to Lincolnshire and the north. The A11 trunk road runs south west, from Norwich to London and the south east of England via the M11/M25 (and via the A14 links with Cambridge). The A12 connects the eastern end of the A47 at Great Yarmouth with Lowestoft in Suffolk. Although not a trunk road, south of Lowestoft it connects to Ipswich, Colchester, Chelmsford and London. The Norwich Northern Distributor Road (NDR) is currently under construction (completion date due February 2018) to facilitate access to north-east Norfolk and Norwich airport. Figure 2.2: Norfolk s transportation network Source: Norfolk County Council There are rail links to Norwich from the south and south west and there is a separate line from the south to King s Lynn. These routes link the county to Cambridge, London and the south east. There are also rail connections to the midlands and the north via Ely and Peterborough. Rail services continue beyond Norwich to Cromer and Sheringham on the north coast and to Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft (Suffolk) on the east coast. But there are no direct railway lines between King s Lynn and Norwich and rail connections between these centres are via Ely. Ports at Great Yarmouth and King s Lynn provide for offshore industries and for freight movement to and from European ports and beyond. Great Yarmouth provides the shortest sea crossing between the UK and the Netherlands, and is England s principal Page 9 of 55

10 support port for offshore energy in the Southern North Sea and is the closest viable deep-water harbour to the East Anglia Array wind farm project. There are also several minor harbours along the north coast which serve smaller vessels and support fishing, leisure and tourism sectors. In addition to the Norfolk ports there are accessible seaports just beyond our county boundaries, at Wisbech in Cambridgeshire and Lowestoft in Suffolk. The international airport at Norwich has regular connections within the UK and with the hub at Schiphol in the Netherlands providing routes to worldwide destinations. Norfolk has a large amount of planned growth over the next few years, with 95,000 more jobs, 10,000 new businesses and 117,000 more homes planned by New Anglia LEP Strategic Economic Plan (based on 2012 figures) - Page 10 of 55

11 3 Norfolk s population It is important to understand the current and projected population profile of the county, in order to help plan public services and allocate resources now and for the future. This section gives a picture of the local demographic. 3.1 Current population profile The latest population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are for mid Norfolk s population is an estimated 892,900 and the figures by local authority are given in Table 3.1. This is an increase of around 7,900 compared with the mid-2015 population. Over the ten year period from 2007, Norfolk s population has increased by 6.9%, compared with an increase of 8.4% in the East of England region and 7.6% in England. Table 3.1: Estimated population, mid-2015 and mid-2016 Local authority area Mid-2015 estimate (in thousands) Mid-2016 estimate (in thousands) Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King's Lynn & West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk Norfolk Source: ONS, mid-2016 Note: figures may not equal due to rounding Figure 3.1 shows Norfolk s population by percentage breakdown for each five year age group, by gender. This shows that currently, the population is made up of slightly more males in the younger age groups, until a gender parity is reached around age 30. From this point onwards, there are slightly more females in each age group, becoming rather more apparent for those aged 80 and over. Over the ten year period from 2007, in terms of broad age groups, numbers of children and young people in the county (aged 0-17) increased by around 5,600 (increase of 3.4% compared with an increase of 5.7% nationally); numbers of working age adults (aged 18-64) increased by around 11,000 (increase of 2.2% compared with an increase of 4.7% nationally); and numbers of older people (aged 65 and over) increased by around 41,400 (increase of 24.1% compared with an increase of 21.6% nationally). The estimates for mid-2016 confirm that Norfolk s population has a much older age profile than England as a whole, with 23.9% of Norfolk s population aged 65 and over, compared with 17.9% in England. Page 11 of 55

12 Figure 3.1: Proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by age group, mid-2016 Source: ONS, mid-2016 Figure 3.2 shows population density (persons per square kilometre) in Norfolk, by ward. The urban centres stand out as being more densely populated (represented by the darker coloured areas on the map), but in addition to lower density rural areas the map also shows moderately high densities in several contiguous areas particularly in the vicinity of Norwich and Great Yarmouth. Figure 3.2: Norfolk population density at ward level, 2015 Source: ONS, 2015 Page 12 of 55

13 Norfolk s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9% in the 2011 Census). A further 0.1% are Gypsy or Irish Travellers and 3.5% Other White. The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and at local authority level this figure varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich. In terms of national identity, the 2011 Census shows that 95% of people are associated in some way with a UK, British or English identity, and the remaining five per cent with other nationalities only. Around 22,900 (3.5% of passports held) are for EU countries (after the UK and Ireland are excluded). There are around 130 languages spoken as a first language other than English, by Norfolk school children. Around 7,800 Norfolk school children have a first language other than English, with around a fifth of those aged 0 to 5 years, more than a half aged 6 to 11 years, and around a quarter aged 12 to 16 years. Polish is the most widely spoken first language other than English across Norfolk s school children, with Portuguese being the second most widely spoken and Lithuanian the third half of all the county s 7,800 children who have a first language other than English speak one of Polish, Portuguese or Lithuanian as a first language. Norwich has the greatest language diversity in the county with around 100 languages spoken by school children as a first language other than English, compared with North Norfolk, where around 40 languages are spoken. 7 Although the number of people in Norfolk identifying as Christian has fallen over the last decade, Christianity remains the main faith in the county (61% in the 2011 Census). Numbers of people identifying as Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim have increased in the last decade, as have those with no religion. 3.2 Future population profile To help plan public services and allocate resources for the future, we need an informed estimate of what Norfolk s population is likely to be over the long term. ONS prepares a trend-based sub-national population projection for each local authority in the country, and the current projections are 2014-based projections to The purpose of these projections is to indicate how the population could change if recent past trends are assumed to continue. The results are shown in Table 3.2. On this basis, from 2014 to 2024 there is projected growth of around 60,600 people in Norfolk this is an increase of 6.9% which is below both the East of England projected increase of 8.9% and the national projected increase of 7.5%. Looking further ahead, there is projected growth from 2014 to 2039 of around 137,800 people in Norfolk this is an increase of 15.7% which is below both the East of England projected increase of 20.3% and the national projected increase of 16.5%. For both timescales, the largest increase in numbers is projected to be in South Norfolk, and the smallest increase in 7 NCC Spring 2015 School Census from LA maintained schools, academies and free schools in Norfolk Page 13 of 55

14 numbers is projected to be in Great Yarmouth. Norfolk s population is projected to exceed one million by Table 3.2: Projected population to 2024 and 2039 (in thousands) increase increase Local authority area Number % Number % Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King's Lynn & West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk Norfolk Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding The age structure and distribution around the county of that future population is also useful to know when long-term planning for future services. Overall, Norfolk s population is projected to increase over the decade to 2024 by around 60,600 people, or around seven per cent (Table 3.3). Norfolk s oldest age groups are projected to grow the quickest in the next decade with the year olds projected to increase by around 38% and the 85 and overs projected to increase by around 34%. Numbers of children aged under 15 are also projected to increase, and there is variation across the other age groups. Of course, the age structure of the population varies across Norfolk s local authority areas, but in the main, looking forward to 2024, Norfolk has an ageing population. Table 3.3: Norfolk projected population to 2024 by broad age group (in thousands) Age group Number % All ages Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding Norfolk s population aged 65 and over (around 23% of the population in mid-2014) is projected to grow to around 26% by Over the ten years to 2024, the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by around 36,600 people, or an increase of around 18% (Table 3.4). The highest percentage increases are in Breckland and South Norfolk and the lowest (and starting from a low base) is in Norwich. Page 14 of 55

15 Table 3.4: Projected increase in population aged 65 and over, Local authority area Number % Breckland 6, Broadland 5, Great Yarmouth 3, King s Lynn & West Norfolk 6, North Norfolk 5, Norwich 2, South Norfolk 6, Norfolk 36, Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding Norfolk s population aged 85 and over is projected to grow significantly over the next decade, with an increase over the period of around 34%, which is above the England rate of 31%. This age group is the most likely to require social care, so increases in the size of this older group are likely to have a high impact on the demand for social care services. The effects of the projected population change by broad age group are illustrated at Figure 3.3. Population growth over the decade as a whole is heavily influenced by growth in the 65-plus population, though much less so in the case of Norwich. Broadland and Great Yarmouth s 0-24 age groups are projected to reduce as a proportion of the population over the period. Figure 3.3: Projected population change (%) by broad age group, Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Figure 3.4 goes on to illustrate how these broad age groups would vary between local authority areas in The two divergent cases are North Norfolk and Norwich. In the former there would be a very high proportion of the population aged 65 and over, related to its popularity as a retirement area. In the latter there would be a very high proportion aged under 25, related to its large student population and the tendency of significant numbers of graduates to remain in the area. Page 15 of 55

16 Figure 3.4: Projected broad age groups as percentage of population, 2024 Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Looking further ahead, Figure 3.5 shows Norfolk s population by percentage breakdown for each five year age group for 2014 compared with projections for 2039, split by males and females. As a proportion of Norfolk s whole population, the county s oldest age groups are projected to grow, compared with the majority of the other age groups which are projected to reduce. In short, going forward, Norfolk s population will have a much older profile than now. Figure 3.5: Projected proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by age group, 2014 compared with 2039 Source: ONS 2014-based sub-national population projections Page 16 of 55

17 4 Norfolk both urban and rural We tend to think of Norfolk as being a rural county with great expanses of green open space. We have a stunning natural environment from the outstanding coastline (much of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), to the unique and internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and woodland such as Thetford Forest and The Brecks. But the picture is more complex than that. 4.1 Classification Each LSOA in England has a rural or urban classification for Norfolk there are four rural classifications and one urban classification - assignments of LSOA/MSOA to rural or urban categories are made by reference to the category to which the majority of their constituent Output Areas (OA) are assigned. In the rural-urban classification (RUC) at OA level, output areas are treated as urban if they were allocated to a 2011 built-up area with a population of 10,000 or more. 8 On this basis, Figure 4.1 shows Norfolk to be extremely rural, in particular with a good many sparse rural areas in the north of the county, although this doesn t tell us what proportions of people are living in each type of area. Figure 4.1: Rural and urban areas of Norfolk, by LSOA Source: ONS, ONS, Page 17 of 55

18 Table 4.1 shows how the county s population and land area are divided between each of the area types. Norfolk s land area is around 93% rural, including smaller towns and their fringes, villages and hamlets, and this area includes a little under half the county s population. The remaining seven per cent of the land area is classed as urban and includes a little over half the county s population. The concept of sparsity is essentially one of population density, and around 88% of the county is classed as less sparse, though this includes 95% of the population. Norfolk s population has seen a shift over recent years, with an increase in numbers of people living in urban and less sparse town and fringe settings than six years ago, and a corresponding decrease in numbers of people living in sparse town and fringe and village settings. The estimated proportion of Norfolk s population living in an urban setting has increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.9% by 2016, with the corresponding reduction of people living in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.1% by Table 4.1: Norfolk urban and rural area types, mid-2016 Wider area type Narrower area type Mid-2016 population % of mid population % of total land area Urban Urban - less sparse 454, Urban - sparse Rural Town and fringe - less sparse 176, Town and fringe - sparse 21, Village and dispersed - less sparse 220, Village and dispersed - sparse 19, Total 892, Urban 454, Rural 438, Total 892, Less sparse 851, Sparse 41, Total 892, Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures Population by district All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban areas, and none of Norfolk s districts is wholly rural (Table 4.2). So, while most of Norfolk looks rural, more than half our residents live in an environment that can be classed as urban. Figure 4.2 illustrates the broad urban/rural split of each area. There has been a shift in the county s urban/rural split at district level over recent years. The estimated proportion of Norfolk s population living in an urban setting has markedly increased in three districts since In Breckland, 43.4% live in an urban setting in 2016 compared with 33.7% in 2010; in King s Lynn & West Norfolk, 42.2% live in an urban setting compared with 33.4% six years ago; and in South Norfolk, 34.9% live in an urban setting compared with 22.3% six years ago. Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its population, but conversely with a shift in the other direction, with 34.3% living in a rural setting, compared with 28.2% six years ago. Page 18 of 55

19 Table 4.2: Norfolk urban and rural population, mid-2016 Rural Urban Local authority area Number % Number % Total Breckland 77, , ,000 Broadland 61, , ,500 Great Yarmouth 34, , ,200 King s Lynn & West Norfolk 87, , ,600 North Norfolk 91, , ,800 Norwich , ,000 South Norfolk 86, , ,800 Norfolk 438, , ,900 Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014 Figure 4.2: Norfolk s rural and urban population, mid-2016 Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures Population by age There are some differences in the age profiles of Norfolk s urban and rural population, and these should influence the decisions we make about access to services and resource allocation. Figure 4.3 shows that middle aged (45-64) and older people (65+) are more likely to be found in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0-15, younger adults aged and adults aged It is also worth noting that almost 60% of people aged 65+ live in rural areas. Page 19 of 55

20 There has been a shift in the county s urban/rural split by broad age group over recent years. The estimated proportion of Norfolk s population living in an urban setting has increased since 2010 for each of the broad age groups. Figure 4.3: Rural and urban population of Norfolk by age, mid-2016 Note: the sum of all the bars is 100 per cent of the Norfolk population Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014 There are some variations at local authority area level. Figure 4.4 shows the large number of year olds in Norwich, which is entirely urban. That is the main reason why there are more people in this age group in Norfolk in urban than in rural areas. Figure 4.5 shows that the and 65 and over age groups are typically greater in number in the rural parts of each area than the urban parts. Figure 4.4: Age structure of urban areas, mid-2016 Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014 Page 20 of 55

21 Figure 4.5: Age structure of rural areas, mid-2016 Source: ONS mid-2016 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014 The information in this section shows that generally there are marked differences between Norfolk s urban and rural populations when we look at broad age groups. This type of information should influence the decisions we make about access to services and resource allocation. But we also know that not everyone classed as older, for example, needs the same level of assistance or care. Chapter 5 about deprivation and poverty goes on to identify further differences across the county that could affect the way services are delivered. Page 21 of 55

22 5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk Issues related to deprivation and poverty are often intergenerational and can become entrenched through an ongoing cycle of inequality and disadvantage. This can often lead to low educational achievement, poor health, economic inactivity and failure to reach full potential in life. Tackling these issues and breaking the cycle of disadvantage should therefore have important benefits for future generations, who will then experience greater opportunities. 5.1 Income The average median 9 annual gross pay for all Norfolk employees was around 20,400 in 2016 (provisional data) an increase of 3.9% on the previous year (Table 5.1). This compares with higher annual gross pay for the East of England of around 24,200 and for England of around 23,400 in Over the last year, Norfolk s pay gap has narrowed, compared with national pay. In 2016, South Norfolk, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and Norwich have higher than Norfolk average pay, with North Norfolk having the lowest average pay in Norfolk. King s Lynn & West Norfolk has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with North Norfolk having the largest decrease. Table 5.1: Annual median gross pay for all employees, 2016 (provisional data) Area Median Gross Annual percentage annual pay ( ) change Breckland 19, Broadland 20, Great Yarmouth 18, King's Lynn & West Norfolk 20, North Norfolk 18, Norwich 20, South Norfolk 23, Norfolk 20, East 24, England 23, Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2016, ONS Table 8.7a 5.2 Deprivation indices The English Indices of Deprivation 2015 (ID2015) published by CLG identifies relative deprivation using a wide range of indicators. The ID2015 contains a series of domains, indices and a multiple index, designed to measure different aspects of deprivation at LSOA level. It is important to remember that not all deprived people live in deprived 9 The median is the value below which 50% of jobs fall. It is ONS's preferred measure of average earnings as it is less affected by a relatively small number of very high earners and the skewed distribution of earnings. It therefore gives a better indication of typical pay than the mean. 10 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2016 (provisional), ONS Table 8.7a laceofresidencebylocalauthorityashetable8 Page 22 of 55

23 areas and not everyone living in a deprived area is deprived. Variations within local authorities may be at least as significant as variations between them. These are relative measures of deprivation as it is impossible to tell whether a change in an area s score compared with previous indices - and hence its rank is a real change in the level of deprivation in an area or due to the scores of other areas going up or down. Headline analysis of the ID2015 shows 11 : Norfolk is the 88th most relatively deprived out of 152 upper tier local authorities where 1 represents the most relatively deprived. This is an increase in relative deprivation compared to 2010 when Norfolk was the 97th most deprived upper tier local authority. 7.6% of the LSOAs (neighbourhoods) in Norfolk are in the most deprived 10% nationally. In Norfolk this affects approximately 68,200 people or 7.9% of the Norfolk population. The most relatively deprived domains for Norfolk are Education (31st) and Barriers to housing and services (44th). The least relatively deprived domain for Norfolk is Crime (142nd). In Norfolk, Great Yarmouth has the highest proportion of its LSOAs included in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs nationally (16 of the 61 LSOAs for Great Yarmouth, 26%). On this measure Great Yarmouth is the 20th most deprived lower tier local authority nationally. Norwich is included in the top 10 lower tier local authorities with the largest percentage point increase in the proportion of neighbourhoods now in the relatively most deprived decile for 2015 compared to Norfolk has broad ranges of rankings across all the domains. Education, Skills and training, Barriers to housing and services and Living environment showing ranks relatively more deprived. Health Deprivation and Disability, Crime and Living Environment with rankings relatively less deprived. Crime domain shows the least relatively deprived median and Education, skills and training the relatively most deprived median. Norwich is included in the 10% of local authorities ranked by the extent summary measure for 2015 and was not included in 2010, indicating that Norwich is relatively more deprived in the 2015 index compared with Figure 5.1 shows Norfolk neighbourhoods (LSOAs) by their national deprivation quintile classification. The most deprived areas in Norfolk (darker areas on the map) are still concentrated in the urban areas of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, King s Lynn and Thetford. However, there are rural areas in King s Lynn & West Norfolk district, the market towns of Watton, Swaffham and Dereham and the coastal areas of Cromer and north of Great Yarmouth that also fall into the most deprived quintile nationally. 11 Norfolk County Council The English Indices of Deprivation 2015 A County summary, LSOA analysis and comparison of change, November 2015 Page 23 of 55

24 Figure 5.1: national deprivation quintile for Norfolk LSOAs Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2015 Source: Norfolk Public Health, 2015 (based on English Indices of Deprivation ID2015) Figure 5.2 shows how the relative deprivation of LSOAs by national deprivation decile in Norfolk has changed between 2010 and Of Norfolk s 538 LSOAs, 237 LSOAs have moved to a more deprived decile (darker areas on the map), 254 LSOAs have remained in the same decile and 47 have moved to a less deprived decile. This is reflected in the movement of Norfolk overall to become relatively more deprived compared to other local authorities. The Market towns of Watton, Swaffham and Dereham as well as coastal areas of Cromer and to the north of Great Yarmouth have moved into the most deprived quintile nationally for overall IMD. Previously the areas in the most deprived quintile were concentrated in the urban centres of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, Kings Lynn and Thetford. Page 24 of 55

25 Figure 5.2: Relative movement of LSOAs across Norfolk between deciles comparing IMD 2015 with IMD 2010 Source: Norfolk Public Health, 2015 (based on English Indices of Deprivation ID2010 and ID2015) For more detailed information and analysis of deprivation and inequalities in Norfolk, click here to go to Norfolk Insight 12 and click here to go to the CLG website Child poverty Research shows that children who grow up in poverty face a greater risk of having poor health, being exposed to crime and failing to reach their full potential in life. With the associated costs of tackling these issues, child poverty can impact significantly on public finances as well as having a negative effect on individuals and communities. Tackling child poverty will improve the experiences of many children, who will then experience greater opportunities and social inclusion. As a result, these children should have better outcomes, particularly health and educational attainment, in childhood and beyond. Breaking the cycle of disadvantage should therefore have important benefits for future generations. The Children in Low-Income Families Local Measure is the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of UK median income. This measure provides a broad proxy for the relative low-income measure as used in the Child Page 25 of 55

26 Poverty Act 2010 and enables analysis at a local level. The local child poverty measure includes all dependent children under the age of 20. Nationally, compared with 2013, there was an average increase in the estimated rate of children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families from 18.0% to 19.9% in 2014 across England. Similarly, the rate of children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families for Norfolk increased in 2014 to 17.4%, compared with 16.0% in For 2014, this equates to an estimated 29,300 Norfolk children - about 25,500 of these children are aged under 16. Norfolk s rate is better than the England average of 19.9%, but worse than the East of England regional average of 16.1%. The level of children living in low-income families has increased over the year for each of Norfolk s districts. 14 It is important to remember that the overall figure for Norfolk masks particular hotspots in the county where this is a more serious issue. Norwich, Great Yarmouth and King s Lynn & West Norfolk each have higher rates of children living in low-income families than the Norfolk average, as detailed at Table 5.2. Norwich has in excess of 6,900 children living in low-income families, which is the highest number of all of the Norfolk local authority areas. Even in the area with the lowest rate (Broadland 10.1%), there are still around 2,400 children living in low-income families. Table 5.2: Children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families (estimated), 2012 to 2014 Area % Number % Number % Number Breckland , , ,000 Broadland 8.7 2, , ,400 Great Yarmouth , , ,190 King's Lynn & West Norfolk , , ,140 North Norfolk , , ,700 Norwich , , ,940 South Norfolk , , ,940 Norfolk , , ,300 East of England , , ,000 England ,154, ,097, ,315,800 Note: Columns may not equal due to rounding Source: HMRC Child Poverty 2014 statistics There will also be variations within local authority areas and within LSOAs, so that smaller pockets of child poverty in areas may not be apparent from the figures. More information is held on Norfolk Insight click here to go to the child poverty data on Norfolk Insight HMRC Child Poverty 2014 statistics Page 26 of 55

27 5.4 Fuel poverty Fuel poverty in England is measured by the Low Income High Costs (LIHC) definition, which considers a household to be in fuel poverty if they have required fuel costs that are above average (the national median level); and were they to spend that amount they would be left with a residual income below the official poverty line. The required fuel costs used to calculate fuel poverty are based on the assumption that a household will heat their home to an adequate standard of warmth defined as 21⁰C in the main living area and 18⁰C in other occupied rooms. 16 The LIHC replaced the previous indicator for measuring fuel poverty (10% indicator), through the Energy Act The fuel poverty status of a household depends on the interaction between three key factors: incomes, fuel prices and energy consumption. The LIHC indicator is a relative measure and is said to provide a much steadier trend in the number of fuel poor households over time compared to the 10% indicator. Whereas a change in income is likely to directly affect the extent of fuel poverty under the 10% indicator; under the LIHC indicator, a change in income will only have an impact on fuel poverty if households with low incomes and high fuel costs see relatively larger income changes (increases or decreases) compared to those in the overall population. In 2015, it is estimated that there were around 36,400 Norfolk households in fuel poverty, representing 9.5% of all Norfolk households. This is higher than the East of England region average of 7.8%, but lower than the England average of 11.0% (Table 5.3). 18 This represents an improvement for Norfolk on the previous year s estimate, with around 2,400 fewer households estimated to be fuel poor compared with the previous year. Furthermore, Norfolk s rate of improvement has been similar to that of the region over the year. All seven local authority areas of Norfolk have decreased (improved) numbers of households in fuel poverty in 2015 compared with 2014 (Table 5.3). North Norfolk continues to have the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the county, at 11.3%. North Norfolk, King s Lynn & West Norfolk, Norwich and Great Yarmouth have rates that are worse (higher) than the county average. 16 Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) (2013) Norfolk Insight (DECC), 2015 Page 27 of 55

28 Table 5.3: Fuel poor households (estimated), 2013 to 2015 Area % Number % Number % Number Breckland 8.5 4, , ,370 Broadland 7.1 3, , ,620 Great Yarmouth , , ,280 King's Lynn & West Norfolk 8.8 5, , ,570 North Norfolk , , ,360 Norwich , , ,150 South Norfolk 8.1 4, , ,060 Norfolk , , ,400 East of England , , ,500 England ,346, ,379, ,502,200 Note: Columns may not equal due to rounding Source: Norfolk Insight (DECC), 2015 There will also be variations within local authority areas and within LSOAs, so that smaller pockets of fuel poverty in areas may not be apparent from the figures. More information is held on Norfolk Insight click here to go to the fuel poverty data on Norfolk Insight Page 28 of 55

29 6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk This section gives a broad picture of the key health and wellbeing issues for Norfolk and shows how the county compares with the England average on a number of important health indicators. Much of this section is based on Public Health England (PHE) Health Profiles Children s and young people s health Under 18 conceptions Most teenage pregnancies are unplanned and around half end in an abortion. As well as it being an avoidable experience for the young woman, abortions represent an avoidable cost to the NHS. And while for some young women having a child when young can represent a positive turning point in their lives, for many more teenagers bringing up a child is incredibly difficult and often results in poor outcomes for both the teenage parent and the child, in terms of the baby s health, the mother s emotional health and wellbeing and the likelihood of both the parent and child living in long-term poverty. Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years have reduced in Norfolk every year from 2009 to 2014, but there was a slight increase in 2015 to 295. Norfolk s rate (21.3 per 1,000 females aged 15 to 17) is not significantly different to the England average (20.8). Smoking status at time of delivery Smoking in pregnancy is harmful for the mother and for the unborn child. Carbon monoxide enters the mother s blood, together with a number of other cigarette chemicals, and limits the oxygen that reaches the baby. There are a number of poor birth outcomes associated with smoking during pregnancy including an increased risk of premature births, still births and low birth weight. The impact of being exposed to smoke in utero may not be confined to the prenatal and birth period, but has also been linked to poorer growth and physical development after birth and during childhood and into adulthood. For Norfolk, despite a mainly reducing trend over recent years, 12.7 women out of every 100 maternities were smoking at the time of delivery in 2015/16, which is significantly worse than the England average (10.6%). Breastfeeding initiation The NHS recommends that mothers exclusively breastfeed their baby for the first 26 weeks of life followed by a combination of breast milk and other foods. Research has shown that breastfeeding is associated with positive health outcomes for both mother and baby in early years and later life. For the child, breastfeeding may lead to a reduced number of hospitalisations for gastroenteritis and lower respiratory tract infections and reduce the baby s risk of developing ear infections. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that breastfed babies may experience benefits that continue into later life, including being less likely to be overweight or obese. During 2014/15, the level of breastfeeding initiation within 48 hours of birth in Norfolk was 77.4%, which is significantly better than the England average (74.3%). Norfolk has experienced an increasing trend in the level of breastfeeding initiation over recent years, but with a slight reduction in the most recent year Page 29 of 55

30 Excess weight in children Obesity in childhood is a significant issue as it is linked to adult obesity, which is a major cause of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. There is a strong case for early intervention in helping people to maintain a healthy weight as evidence suggests that future lifestyles are determined by early life experiences. Food preferences, activity levels and leisure activities as adults are all influenced by parenting and the home environment in the first years of life. Every year all children at Reception Class (age five to six) and Year 6 (age ten to eleven) have their height and weight measured under the National Child Measurement Programme. The latest data from 2015/16 shows that for Norfolk children aged 10 to 11, 18.0% of children (or one in five children) were obese, which is significantly better than the England average (19.8%). Over recent years, Norfolk s level of childhood obesity peaked in 2011/12, and since then has levelled off. 6.2 Adults health and lifestyle Smoking prevalence and smoking related deaths Smoking is the most important cause of preventable ill health and premature mortality in the UK. Smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases, such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart disease. It is also associated with cancers in other organs, including lip, mouth, throat, bladder, kidney, stomach, liver and cervix. For Norfolk over recent years, prevalence of smoking in adults aged 18 and over peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased in line with the England average. For 2016, smoking prevalence is 13.5% for Norfolk, compared with 15.5% for England. The smoking prevalence amongst people classed as routine and manual workers is higher than in the general population. For Norfolk, the proportion of these people who smoke has decreased from 33.2% in 2011 to 27.4% in 2016, although these rates are not significantly different from the national average (26.5%). Norfolk s rate of smoking related deaths has declined over recent years, to the level of per 100,000 population. The current level for has increased to per 100,000 population, which remains significantly better than the England average (283.5). This means that around 4,580 people died from smoking related illnesses in Norfolk during the period 2013 to Excess weight in adults Being overweight or obese increases the risk of a wide range of diseases including circulatory diseases, Type 2 diabetes and various cancers. For Norfolk, during the proportion of the adult population classified as overweight or obese was estimated at 67.0% (or two in three people), which is significantly worse than the England average (64.8%). Physical activity In 2011, the Chief Medical Officers (CMOs) of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland published their recommendations for physical activity. Adults aged should undertake 150 minutes of moderate intensity activity in bouts of 10 minutes or more or alternatively 75 minutes of vigorous intensity activity spread across the week (or a Page 30 of 55

31 combination of the two). The health benefits of regular moderate physical activity are well evidenced and can help prevent and reduce the risk of: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), Cancer, Obesity, Diabetes, Mental Health Problems and Musculoskeletal health (osteoporosis and osteoarthritis). For Norfolk in 2015, 56.5% of adults achieved at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week, which is similar to the England average (57.0%). However, this means that four in ten people do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their health. Personal wellbeing Personal wellbeing, or people's thoughts and feelings about their own quality of life, is an important aspect of national wellbeing. It is part of a much wider initiative in the UK and internationally to look beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and to measure what really matters to people. The ONS regularly monitors 41 different headline measures in areas such as the natural environment, relationships, health, what we do, where we live, personal finances, the economy, education and skills, governance and personal wellbeing to measure the progress and wellbeing of the nation. For 2016/17, Norfolk people rated more highly than the England average ratings on questions about their life satisfaction; the extent to which they feel things in life are worthwhile; and their happiness. Norfolk people also rated their anxiety level as lower than the England average Disease and poor health Diabetes Diabetes is a common long term condition affecting 2.2 million people in the UK with many more undiagnosed with significant ill health consequences. There are two forms of diabetes, Type 1 (dependant on injecting insulin) and Type 2 who manage their condition through regulating their diet (90% of diabetes sufferers have Type 2). The prevalence of diabetes increases with age and is closely linked to obesity and with higher levels of deprivation. Diabetes has a considerable impact on individuals and for health and social care and can lead to a reduced quality of life through ill health, increased admissions to hospital and shorter life expectancy. For Norfolk in 2014/15, there were 6.4% of people on GP registers with a recorded diagnosis of diabetes, which is significantly worse than the England average. This equates to around 47,400 people in Norfolk and represents an increasing trend over recent years. Hip fractures Falls are the largest cause of emergency hospital admissions for older people, and significantly impact on long term outcomes, e.g. they are a major factor for many people in the decision to move into long-term nursing or residential care. Hip fracture is a debilitating condition only one in three sufferers return to their former levels of independence and one in three ends up leaving their own home and moving to longterm care (resulting in social care costs). Hip fractures are almost as common and costly as strokes and the incidence is rising. For Norfolk during 2015/16, there were almost 1,300 emergency admissions to hospitals for people aged 65 and over as a result of hip fractures, which is an increase of around 100 on the previous year. This 21 ONS Personal Wellbeing in the UK, 2016/17 Page 31 of 55

32 equates to a rate of 596 per 100,000 population, which is similar to the England average (589). Self-harm and suicide In contrast to the trends in completed suicide, the incidence of self-harm has continued to rise in the UK over the past 20 years and, for young people at least, is said to be among the highest in Europe. Self-harm is defined as an intentional act of selfpoisoning or self-injury irrespective of the type of motivation or degree of suicidal intent. Self-harm is an expression of personal distress and there are varied reasons for a person to harm themselves. There is a significant and persistent risk of future suicide following an episode of self harm. For Norfolk in 2015/16, there were around 1,900 emergency hospital stays for self-harm, which is an increase of around 30 on the previous year. This equates to a rate of per 100,000 population, which is significantly worse than the England average (196.5). Over the past decade, Norfolk s suicide rate has been similar to the England average, although for and , Norfolk s rate was significantly worse. For , Norfolk s rate is 12.4 per 100,000 population compared with 10.1 for England. This means that during the three year period 2013 to 2015, in Norfolk around 290 people killed themselves. Alcohol-related conditions Alcohol consumption is a contributing factor to hospital admissions and deaths from a diverse range of conditions. For example, the cost of inpatient admissions for hypertensive diseases attributable to alcohol in Norfolk is estimated at 10.9 million per year 22. For Norfolk in 2015/16, there were around 6,130 admissions to hospital where the primary diagnosis is an alcohol-related condition or a secondary diagnosis is an alcohol-related external cause, which is about the same as the previous year. This equates to a rate of 676 per 100,000 population, which is significantly worse than the England average (647). Norfolk s level of admissions for alcohol-related conditions had been significantly better than the England rate from 2008/09 to 2010/11, although from 2011/12 Norfolk s rate is significantly worse than the national average. Dementia Dementia is most common in older people and can include a decline in memory, reasoning and communication skills, and a gradual loss of skills needed to carry out daily activities, becoming worse over time. People with dementia often require substantial amounts of care, particularly social care. Over the past five years, Norfolk has experienced an increasing trend of levels of people (all ages) with dementia recorded on GP practice registers, from 0.56% in 2010/11 to 0.86% in 2014/15. Norfolk s rate has been consistently higher than the England average over this period. This indicator is a measure of recorded prevalence and not actual prevalence and therefore under-reports groups who are less likely to be registered with a GP, such as ethnic minority populations, homeless people, migrants and travellers, as well as those who are registered with a GP but have yet to receive a diagnosis. It is estimated that for Norfolk, only around half of dementia cases are diagnosed Alcohol Concern Alcohol Harm Map 23 NCC Health and Wellbeing Profile (July 2015) Page 32 of 55

33 6.4 Life expectancy and causes of death Life expectancy Life expectancy at birth gives the average number of years a person would expect to live based on contemporary mortality rates. For Norfolk, life expectancy for men is 80.2 years and for women is 83.8 years, with both being significantly better than the England average. Life expectancy is 6.4 years lower for men and 3.0 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Norfolk than in the least deprived areas. Excess winter deaths Excess Winter Deaths Index (EWD Index) is the excess winter deaths measured as the ratio of extra deaths from all causes that occur in the winter months compared with the expected number of deaths, based on the average of the number of non-winter deaths. On this basis, during the period, there were around 1,600 excess winter deaths in Norfolk. This equates to a ratio of 18.5, which is similar to the England average (19.6). The number of excess winter deaths depends on the temperature and the level of disease in the population as well as other factors, such as how well equipped people are to cope with the drop in temperature. Most excess winter deaths are due to circulatory and respiratory diseases, and the majority occur amongst the elderly population. Infant mortality Infant mortality is an indicator of the general health of an entire population. It reflects the relationship between causes of infant mortality and determinants of population health such as economic, social and environmental conditions. Deaths occurring during the first 28 days of life (the neonatal period) in particular, are considered to reflect the health and care of both mother and newborn. For Norfolk during the three year period 2013 to 2015, there were around 110 deaths in infants aged under one year. This equates to a rate of 4.0 per 1,000 live births, which is similar to the England average (3.9). Norfolk has experienced some slight increases in the rate over recent years, in contrast to a decreasing trend nationally. Cardiovascular disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the major causes of death in under 75s in England. Over the past decade, Norfolk has experienced a decreasing trend in the rate of mortality from all CVDs (including heart disease and stroke) in persons less than 75 years, per 100,000 population. During that period, Norfolk s rate has continued to be significantly better than the England average. For the three year period 2013 to 2015, there have been around 1,620 deaths in Norfolk due to CVD. Cancer Cancer is the highest cause of death in England in under 75s. Over the past decade, Norfolk has experienced a generally decreasing trend in the rate of mortality from all cancers in persons less than 75 years, per 100,000 population. During that period, Norfolk s rate has continued to be significantly better than the England average. For the three year period 2013 to 2015, there have been around 3,420 deaths in Norfolk due to cancer. Page 33 of 55

34 7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk Crime is an inherently difficult phenomenon to measure as some crime goes unreported or is under reported; victims can be unaware of some crimes such as fraud; and there are crimes where there may be no direct victims. While the two main statistical series on crime (the Crime Survey for England and Wales and the police) add to the understanding of crime, neither series produces, nor can they ever produce, a count of total crime. Crimes are recorded by police in the year they are reported, and this may not necessarily be in the year the offence occurred this means that historical crimes are potentially recorded long after the offence, for example over recent years there has been an increase in recorded sexual offences nationally due to historical sexual offences being reported. The definition of crime itself is not straightforward. While the statute provides a definition of what behaviour would constitute a crime in law, the public perception of what is criminal may differ. For example, any physical violence between individuals is likely to be considered a crime by interpretation of the law. However, where this occurs on a sports field or amounts to pushing and shoving between children at a playground, it might be that neither victim nor offender (even if such a distinction could be drawn) would consider the action to be criminal. 7.1 National context Excluding fraud and computer misuse offences, there were an estimated 5.9 million incidents of crime experienced by adults aged 16 and over based on Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) interviews in the year ending March This is a decrease of 7% from the 6.3 million incidents estimated in the previous year s survey. Estimates derived from the new fraud and computer misuse offence questions show there were an additional 5.2 million incidents of such offences in the latest year s survey (3.4 million fraud and 1.8 million computer misuse offences). Adding fraud and computer misuse offences to the existing CSEW series gives an estimated 11 million incidents of crime covered by the survey. Valid year-on-year comparisons of CSEW estimates including the new fraud and computer misuse figures will not be available until January 2018, when two full years of data are available. Most categories of theft in the CSEW estimates showed an apparent reduction compared with the previous year s survey but the only statistically significant decreases were in the sub-categories of other theft of personal property (16%), other household theft (13%) and vehicle-related theft (10%). In combination, these reductions led to a 10% significant decrease in all theft offences. In contrast to the 7% decrease seen in the CSEW, police recorded offences increased by 10% compared with the previous year, to nearly 5 million offences. All forces except for Cumbria and North Yorkshire showed an annual increase in the volume of crime recorded. This increase is likely to reflect a range of factors, which vary by crime type, including continuing improvements to recording processes and practices, expanded offence coverage and also genuine increases in some crime types. Page 34 of 55

35 The 10% rise in the number of police recorded crimes in the latest year was largely driven by increases in violence against the person (up 18%), theft (up 7%) and public order offences (up 39%). There were smaller volume increases in criminal damage and arson (up 5%), sexual offences (up 14%), burglary (up 3%), robbery (up 16%), and possession of weapons (up 20%) Local picture of crime and disorder For most people, Norfolk remains a very safe place. It continues to have one of the lowest crime rates in England, with the level of crime and disorder in most places being well below the national average. Police recorded crime Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police in Norfolk for the 12 months ending March 2017 was around 50,400 (Table 7.1) this represents a 5.6% increase on the previous year s figure (around 47,700 crimes recorded), compared with an increase of 9.9% for the eastern region and 11.1% for England. The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 population for Norfolk is 56.9, compared with 64.5 for the eastern region and 74.1 for England. 25 In Norfolk, there have been around 21,100 anti-social behaviour (ASB) incidents recorded by the police over the year, representing a small increase compared with the 20,900 incidents recorded during 2015/16 this bucks the trend of declining numbers of ASB in Norfolk over recent years. Norfolk s rate of ASB per 1,000 population is 23.8, compared with 27.4 for the eastern region and 31.0 for England. Over the 12 months to March 2017, the numbers of police recorded crimes by offence group for Norfolk have fallen in terms of all other theft offences (decrease of 6%); burglary (decrease of 5%); domestic burglary offences (decrease of 5%); non-domestic burglary (decrease of 5%); criminal damage and arson (decrease of 4%); drug offences (decrease of 2%); and vehicle offences (decrease of 1%). Increases in the numbers of police recorded crimes for Norfolk for the same period include miscellaneous crimes against society (increase of 35%); theft from the person (increase of 35%); possession of weapons offences (increase of 31%); robbery (increase of 25%); shoplifting (increase of 19%); bicycle theft (increase of 14%); sexual offences (increase of 12%); public order offences (increase of 12%); violence against the person (increase of 9%); violence with injury (increase of 9%); violence without injury (increase of 9%); and theft offences (increase of 3%). However, it has been noted that increases in recorded violence against the person offences are thought to reflect changes in recording practices to some degree, and increases in recorded sexual offences will reflect a number of historical offences. 24 Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2017 (July 2017). ONS Statistical Bulletin London es/yearendingmar2017#main-points 25 ONS Recorded Crime Data Tables, March ommunitysafetypartnershiparea Page 35 of 55

36 Table 7.1 shows the total police recorded crime for Norfolk by local authority area for the last two years, along with the percentage change and the rate per 1,000 residents for 2016/17. Of the seven districts in Norfolk, two have experienced decreases in total police recorded crime in the 12 months to March 2017, with the remaining five experiencing increases. Breckland and North Norfolk have seen decreases, with Norwich and Great Yarmouth having the largest percentage increases. Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates (per 1,000 residents) than the Norfolk average, although ONS advises that caution needs to be taken when considering crime rates of city centre areas, due to the often small population and household levels in these areas. The high reported crime rates in city centres are partly due to the use of small resident population and household figures as the denominator of the crime rate. The 'transient population' that migrates into these areas on a daily basis, either for work or leisure, will not be reflected in the resident population figures. Table 7.1: Total police recorded crime, by number and rate per 1,000 residents for Norfolk by local authority area, year ending March 2016 and March 2017 % change 2015/16 to 2016/17 Recorded crime rate per 1,000 population, 2016/17 Local authority area 2015/ /17 Breckland 6,598 6, Broadland 3,980 4, Great Yarmouth 7,743 8, King's Lynn & West Norfolk 7,570 7, North Norfolk 3,477 3, Norwich 13,870 15, South Norfolk 4,494 4, Norfolk 47,732 50, East of England England Note: ONS notes that following a system change at Norfolk constabulary in October 2015 a range of data reliability issues have been identified. At a national level the impact of this is small. The constabulary is expected to resolve these issues and revise data. Source: ONS Recorded Crime Data Tables, March 2017 Crime Severity Score The ONS has developed a weighted measure of crimes recorded by the police; the Crime Severity Score. Existing official statistics on police recorded crime data are presented as counts of the number of offences or as a rate of offences recorded per head of population, broken into broad offence categories. However, even within a broad category, the counts take no account of the different levels of severity of the crimes within a category, or the demands these will place on the police. This new measure of crime aims to address this by taking into account both the volume and the severity of offences, by weighting offences differently. By severity, the intention is to reflect the relative harm of an offence to society and the likely demands on the police. For example, it would be expected that the police response to a serious violent crime would be more resource intensive than their response to an incident of criminal Page 36 of 55

37 damage. It is important to bear in mind that, as with other measures based on police recorded crime, the Crime Severity Score is affected by variation in recording practices over time and between areas. 26 For the year ending March 2016, Norfolk s Crime Severity Score is 7.2, which is better (lower) than the scores for the eastern region at 8.4 and England at 9.9. However, Norfolk s score has increased more than the region and nationally when compared with the previous year, indicating that the types of crimes committed in Norfolk are increasing in seriousness and potentially doing so at a faster rate. Police and Crime Commissioner Following elections in 2012, Norfolk had its first Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) who replaced the police authority. PCCs aim to cut crime and deliver an effective and efficient police service within their force area. Their role is to be the voice of the people and hold the police to account, effectively making them answerable to the communities they serve. This is a fundamental change to the previous crime and disorder landscape, affecting not only policing but all criminal justice agencies, local government, health services and the voluntary and community sector in Norfolk. The PCC s responsibilities include: 27 Setting objectives for tackling crime and disorder in Norfolk through a Police and Crime Plan. Ensuring Norfolk has an efficient and effective police force. The PCC hires (and, if necessary, fires) the Chief Constable and holds him/her to account for running the force. The PCC also sets Norfolk s policing priorities and monitors performance against those priorities. Setting the budget for policing the county and determining how much is contributed through Council Tax. The PCC also scrutinises how the police use their budget to meet Norfolk s policing priorities. Bringing together Norfolk s community safety and criminal justice partners to make sure local priorities are joined up. Commissioning services which contribute to the objectives within the Police and Crime Plan. Providing support services for victims and witnesses of crime. Getting communities involved in keeping Norfolk safe and being the voice of the people when it comes to policing and criminal justice in Norfolk. 26 ONS Research outputs: developing a Crime Severity Score for England and Wales using data on crimes recorded by the police (June 2017) gdataoncrimesrecordedbythepolice 27 Office of the Police & Crime Commissioner for Norfolk - Page 37 of 55

38 8 Norfolk s economy Norfolk is arguably the most self-contained labour market in the region, in part due to its peripheral and coastal location, but also due to the distance from other regional cities and the limited connectivity of the transport network. The county covers a vast area of around 551,000 hectares and contains several diverse economies, located within rural, urban and coastal environments. 8.1 Structure of the local economy Employment by industry sector Based on the latest data for 2015, Table 8.1 shows employee jobs by industry sector for Norfolk. 28 On this basis, the most significant industry sector in Norfolk, in employment terms, continues to be wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which in 2015 employed 18.4% of the working population, remaining at a higher level than region (17.9%) and national (15.9%) averages. The next most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be human health and social work activities, which in 2015 employed 15.2% of Norfolk s working population, remaining at a higher level than region (12.1%) and national (12.8%) averages. The third most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be manufacturing, which in 2015 employed 9.5% of Norfolk s working population, remaining at a higher level than region (7.8%) and national (8.2%) averages. The tourism industry is vital for supporting employment across Norfolk and is especially important in Norwich, along the north Norfolk coast, in the Broads and the east coast resorts of Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft. In 2015, employment in accommodation and food service activities accounted for 7.8% of employment in Norfolk. This is a decrease from the previous year (9.0% in 2014), but remaining at a higher level than region (6.5%) and national (7.1%) averages. 28 % is a proportion of total employee jobs excluding farm-based agriculture; employee jobs excludes self-employed, government-supported trainees and HM Forces; and data excludes farm-based agriculture Page 38 of 55

39 Table 8.1: Employee jobs by industry, 2015 Industry Norfolk (numbers) Norfolk (%) East (%) England (%) B : Mining and quarrying 1, C : Manufacturing 33, D : Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply E : Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3, F : Construction 21, G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 64, H : Transportation and storage 13, I : Accommodation and food service activities 27, J : Information and communication 7, K : Financial and insurance activities 11, L : Real estate activities 4, M : Professional, scientific and technical activities 18, N : Administrative and support service activities 28, O : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 14, P : Education 31, Q : Human health and social work activities 53, R : Arts, entertainment and recreation 10, S : Other service activities 8, Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2015 (from Nomis) Full-time and part-time employment split Norfolk has a relatively high proportion of part-time jobs compared with national and regional averages (Table 8.2), with an average of 33.3% of jobs being part-time compared with a regional figure of 32.5% and a national figure of 30.5%. Overall, the proportion of full-time employee jobs in the county has increased over the last four years, most notably for Breckland, North Norfolk and Norwich. Table 8.2: Norfolk full-time and part-time employment split by district, 2015 Area 2015 Full-time % Part-time % Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King s Lynn & West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk Norfolk East of England England Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2015 (from Nomis) Page 39 of 55

40 Occupational structure Figure 8.1 shows Norfolk s occupational structure from 2004/05 to 2016/17 29, for the major occupational groups according to the Standard Occupation Classification 2010 (Soc 2010). 30 Major groups 1 to 3 include managers, directors, senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical; major groups 4 and 5 include administrative, secretarial and skilled trade occupations; major groups 6 and 7 include caring, leisure, other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations; and major groups 8 and 9 include process plant & machine operatives and elementary occupations. Over the last ten years or so, the proportion of people aged 16 and over employed in higher paid occupations (professionals, managers and senior officials) in Norfolk has been consistently much higher than other occupational groups, with an increasing trend. Numbers of people employed in the other three major groups have tended to be relatively consistent, until the last few years, where there has been a little more variation, with people employed in caring, leisure, other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations (major groups 6 and 7) increasing their share of employment, compared with a decline for the other two groups. Figure 8.1: % of persons aged 16+ employed in Norfolk by Standard Occupation Classification, 2004/05 to 2016/17 Source: ONS annual population survey, 2017 (from Nomis) 29 For the period of July to June. 30 Numbers and % are for those of 16+; % is a proportion of all persons in employment Page 40 of 55

41 Migrant workers There are a number of sources of information about migrant workers entering the county, though none gives complete coverage. The mechanism for capturing information relating to the numbers of migrant workers is limited for instance, outflows are not fully captured. Data from the Department for Work and Pensions, however, show the number of National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) to overseas nationals entering the UK. A NINo is generally required by any overseas national (aged 16 to 64) looking to work or claim benefits or tax credits in the UK, including the selfemployed and students working part time. The statistics provide a measure of immigration (inflow) but do not reflect emigration (outflow), or the overall migrant population (stock). All adult overseas nationals allocated a NINo are included regardless of their length of stay in the UK. Undocumented workers are not recorded in NINo data, so there will be under-recording. There have been fluctuations in estimated numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering Norfolk annually over the period 2005 to 2016 (Figure 8.2). Levels and fluctuations can be accounted for by changes to EU labour market restrictions in recent years - there was a steep rise during 2004 when the UK opened its borders and labour markets to the EU8 countries, and another in 2007 when the EU2 countries joined the EU 31. Immigration restrictions for EU2 nationals were lifted in Further variation can be accounted for in part by the changing economic conditions in the UK over recent years. For example, the steep increase in NINo registrations in 2013 could be accounted for by the improved economic conditions in the UK compared with other EU countries. During 2016, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in Norfolk is around 7,900, which is an increase of around 500 on the previous year, and is the highest annual figure during the period under consideration. Figure 8.2: Norfolk NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals, 2005 to 2016 Source: ONS Migration Indicators Tool, For a definition of the Member and Accession countries and other related classifications see Page 41 of 55

42 Norfolk s estimated rate of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64 has remained lower than region and national rates over recent years. For 2016, Norfolk s rate is 14.9 (up from 14.0 in 2015), compared with 18.2 (up from 17.7 in 2015) for the eastern region and 21.5 (down from 21.7 in 2015) nationally. Figure 8.3 shows that over the past five years, Norwich has consistently the highest rate of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64. Broadland and South Norfolk stand out as areas with significantly lower rates of NINo registrations compared with the other districts. Norwich is a centre for many skilled and unskilled industry sectors, and areas such as Breckland, Great Yarmouth, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and North Norfolk have demands in sectors such as agriculture and related food processing and packaging, attracting higher levels of migrant workers. The steep increases in NINo registrations seen at county level in 2013 are most apparent in Norwich, Breckland and Great Yarmouth. For 2016, the districts that have higher rates than the Norfolk average rate (14.9) are Norwich (26.4), King s Lynn & West Norfolk (18.2), Great Yarmouth (17.6) and Breckland (17.1). Figure 8.3: Norfolk NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals, rate per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64, 2012 to 2016 Source: ONS Migration Indicators Tool, 2016 During the five year period from 2011 to 2015, around 80% of the 32,000 NINo registrations in Norfolk are accounted for by ten nationalities. Lithuanian nationals account for the highest number of registrations, at around 7,400 registrations, or almost a quarter of all registrations. Polish nationals account for the second highest number of registrations, at around 4,800, with Portuguese nationals accounting for the third highest number of registrations, at around 3,000. Norwich, Breckland and King s Lynn Page 42 of 55

43 & West Norfolk recorded the largest numbers of NINos in total over the five year period. There are variations across the county over the five year period, for example with around a third of registrations from Lithuanian nationals in King s Lynn & West Norfolk; around four in ten registrations from Polish nationals in Breckland; almost half of registrations from Portuguese nationals in Great Yarmouth; around a quarter of registrations from Romanian nationals in Norwich; and almost half of registrations from Latvian nationals in King s Lynn & West Norfolk. 32 Size of enterprises In Norfolk for 2016, 99.6% of local business units employ fewer than 250 people and 82.7% employ fewer than ten people. While this does show that the structure of the economy is heavily weighted to smaller businesses, proportions are similar to the national averages. The highest proportion of micro-businesses is found in South Norfolk where 86.7% of business units employ fewer than ten people. The highest proportion of larger business units with more than 250 employees are found in Norwich. All of the Norfolk districts, with the exception of Norwich have fewer larger business units than the national average Economic competitiveness Gross Value Added Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) made by an individual producer, industry or sector in the economy. The calculation of GVA is based on compensation of employees (wages), plus gross operating surplus (company profits), plus mixed income (income from selfemployment), plus taxes on production minus subsidies on production. Although the East of England Forecasting Model indicates that Norfolk s GVA per capita has steadily increased in recent years, Norfolk typically has a much lower GVA per capita figure than that of the UK. Latest estimates for 2018 indicate Norfolk s GVA at 18,000 per head of population, compared with 23,000 for the UK. 34 Weekly pay Gross weekly pay for all full-time workers in Norfolk for 2016 is , compared with higher pay for the East of England region of and England of Norfolk s pay has increased at a quicker rate over the last year (by 4.9%) than the region (3.4%) and nationally (2.4%). At , South Norfolk s average gross weekly pay is the highest in Norfolk and is higher than the national average (Table 8.3). South Norfolk, Broadland ( ) and King s Lynn & West Norfolk ( ) have higher average rates of weekly pay than the Norfolk average ( ). 32 DWP Stat-Xplore ONS Inter Departmental Business Register data, 2016 (from Nomis) 34 East of England Forecasting Model economic forecasts published on Cambridgeshire Insight 35 ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2016 (from Nomis) Page 43 of 55

44 Table 8.3: Weekly gross pay ( ) for full-time employee jobs, 2016 Area weekly pay Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King s Lynn & West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk Norfolk East of England England Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2016 (from Nomis) Rates of Business Start-ups and Closures In 2015, Norfolk had a stock of active enterprises of around 31,370, which is an increase on the previous year of around 700 enterprises. This increase is consistent with the rate of new enterprise start-ups being higher for Norfolk since 2013 than the rate of closures (Figure 8.4), suggesting a recent improvement in business confidence. In 2015, there were around 3,380 new business start-ups in Norfolk, which is a rate of 10.8 per 100 active enterprises, which is lower than the England rate of There were around 2,580 business closures in 2015, which is a rate of 8.2 per 100 active enterprises, which is lower than the England rate of 9.5. On this basis, Norfolk has a positive net rate of 2.6, compared with England s much higher net rate of Figure 8.4: Norfolk rate of business start-ups and closures, 2010 to 2015 Source: ONS Business Demography, ONS Business Demography, Business births, deaths and survival rates Page 44 of 55

45 Survival of Enterprises Businesses in Norfolk have a better rate of survival over five years (44.7%) than the regional (43.1%) and national (41.4%) averages, based on 2010 business start-ups. Although the higher survival rate is encouraging, it is generally thought that relatively small numbers of new businesses alongside higher survival rates could suggest a less than dynamic business environment. There are notable differences in survival rates across the county, with Breckland (50.0%) and King s Lynn & West Norfolk (48.6%) having the highest survival rates and North Norfolk (42.9%) and Norwich (43.4%) having the lowest survival rates. 37 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) The LEP for Norfolk and Suffolk, New Anglia, was approved by Government in 2010, and has clear goals of driving growth and enterprise to transform the local economy into a global centre for talent and innovation. The New Anglia Strategic Economic Plan sets out the aim to create 95,000 more jobs, 10,000 new businesses and 117,000 more homes by 2026 (based on 2012 figures). Click here for more information ( Broadband delivery in Norfolk Fast broadband provides many benefits for Norfolk businesses and residents. For businesses it helps to innovate and expand into different markets. It also has the potential to increase efficiency and drive down costs. For householders this includes everything from having improved access to online shopping, banking and public services and being able to stay in touch with family and friends, to setting up a business and running it from home. Children are also able to do their homework and learn independently online and adults have improved opportunities for life-long learning. Better Broadband for Norfolk (BBfN) is a multi-million pound partnership funded through Norfolk County Council, BT and the Department of Culture, Media and Sport via BDUK (Broadband Delivery UK) with additional support from the New Anglia LEP, and five of Norfolk s district councils. It is transforming Norfolk s broadband speeds across the county by installing high-speed fibre optic networks across the county. Currently, 88% of Norfolk can access speeds of 24Mbps+ (24 Megabits per second and above) and around 195,000 premises in Norfolk are connected to speeds of 24Mbps+. By March 2018, 90% of the county is due to be able to receive speeds of 24Mbps+, and by March 2020 the target is 95%. Click here for more information ( 37 ONS Business Demography, Business births, deaths and survival rates Page 45 of 55

46 8.3 Labour market Employment The most recent data shows the rate of employment in the county stood at 76.9% for the year to March That means there were around 424,100 people of working age in employment in the county. Norfolk s rate is below (worse than) the regional average of 77.2% and above (better than) the national of 74.4%. Figure 8.5 shows the annual proportion of those aged 16 to 64 in employment from 2004/05 to 2016/17 (data for April to March), compared with the region and nationally. There has been steady increase in the employment rate for Norfolk from 2010/11 until 2013/14, when a slight dip was experienced. During the latest three years, Norfolk s employment rate has continued an improving trend. Figure 8.5: % of persons aged 16 to 64 employed in Norfolk, 2004/05 to 2016/17 Source: ONS annual population survey, 2017 (from Nomis) Page 46 of 55

47 Unemployment The most recent data shows the rate of unemployment in the county stood at 4.0% for the year to March That means that there were around 17,700 people of working age unemployed in the county. Norfolk s rate is above (worse than) the regional average of 3.8% and below (better than) the national of 4.8%. Figure 8.6 shows the annual proportion of those aged 16 and over who were unemployed from 2004/05 to 2016/17 (data for April to March), compared with the region and nationally. Norfolk s unemployment peaked in 2011/12, followed in recent years by periods of decreases and increases. During the latest year, Norfolk s unemployment rate has increased more sharply than regional and national rates. Figure 8.6: % of persons aged 16 and over unemployed in Norfolk, 2004/05 to 2016/17 Source: ONS annual population survey, 2017 (from Nomis) Page 47 of 55

48 Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimants The most recent data shows the rate of JSA claimants in the county stood at 0.7% for the quarter to November That means there were around 3,700 people of working age claiming JSA in the county. Norfolk s rate is below (better than) the regional average of 0.8% and below (better than) the national of 1.1%. Figure 8.7 shows the quarterly proportion of those aged 16 to 64 claiming JSA from 2004 to 2017, compared with the region and nationally. Although Norfolk s trend may look rather more erratic at times over the past ten years compared with the region and nationally, the overall pattern is broadly similar, and showing a reducing trend. Figure 8.7: % of persons aged 16 to 64 claiming JSA in Norfolk, 2004 to 2017 Source: DWP benefit claimants, 2017 (from Nomis) Page 48 of 55

49 9 Education and skills in Norfolk The provision of good quality education throughout a child s school life and beyond into adulthood is important - not only for attainment, but also for raising aspirations, learning new skills and reaching full potential in life. Broadly speaking, when utilised effectively, skills enable people to carry out more complex work, work more effectively, and produce higher value products, thereby contributing to economic growth both through increased productivity and higher employment levels resulting from improvements in people s employability. 9.1 Educational attainment Early Years outcomes The statutory Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS) framework requires the EYFS profile assessment to be carried out in the final term of the year in which a child reaches age five, and no later than 1 July in that term. The main purpose of the EYFS profile is to provide a reliable, valid and accurate assessment of individual children at the end of the EYFS. EYFS profile data is used to inform parents about their child s development against the early learning goals and the characteristics of their learning; to support a smooth transition to key stage 1 (KS1) by informing the professional dialogue between EYFS and KS1 teachers; and to help year 1 teachers plan an effective, responsive and appropriate curriculum that will meet the needs of all children. In addition, the EYFS profile provides an accurate national data set relating to levels of child development at the end of the EYFS. The DfE uses this to monitor changes in levels of children s development and their readiness for the next phase of their education both nationally and locally. 38 At the EYFS, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard (a Good Level of Development) has increased slightly since 2016 and remains in line with the national average (Figure 9.1). Figure 9.1: % attaining EYFS Good Level of Development, 2017 Source: NCC Education Achievement and Early Years Service - Early Needs Analysis v1 Test and Teacher Assessment Outcomes Primary Phase, September Standards and Testing Agency - Early years foundation stage profile 2017 handbook - dbook_v1.1.pdf Page 49 of 55

50 The increase in the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving expected standards at EYFS has not been matched by an increase in the number of pupils reaching the exceeding standards, so there remains a significant gap between the average attainment of children in Norfolk and nationally (Figure 9.2). Figure 9.2: EYFS average total point scores, 2017 Source: NCC Education Achievement and Early Years Service - Early Needs Analysis v1 Test and Teacher Assessment Outcomes Primary Phase, September 2017 The percentage of pupils in Norfolk exceeding EYFS Early Learning Goals in 2017 is around half the 2016 national average, and much lower in some goals. For Free School Meals pupils the percentages are very low (Table 9.1). Table 9.1: % exceeding the EYFS Early Learning Goals, 2017 Source: NCC Education Achievement and Early Years Service - Early Needs Analysis v1 Test and Teacher Assessment Outcomes Primary Phase, September 2017 Page 50 of 55