Tayside. Skills Assessment January SDS-1186-Feb16

Transcription

1 Tayside Skills Assessment January 2016 SDS-1186-Feb16

2 Acknowledgement The Regional Skills Assessment Steering Group (Skills Development Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group) would like to thank Ekosgen for their highly professional support in the analysis and collation of the data that forms the basis of this Skills Assessment Update.

3 Contents Introduction 3 What is this report? 3 What has changed in Scotland since 2014? 3 The Tayside RSA 3 Selected headline indicator changes 4 1 Economic performance 5 Headline summary 5 Gross Value Added (GVA) 5 Productivity 5 Earnings 5 Business base 6 Infrastructure 7 2 Profile of the workforce 7 Headline summary 7 Total employment 7 Employment structure by industry 8 Occupational profile 9 3 People and skills supply 10 Headline summary 10 Population 10 Labour market participation 10 Qualifications and attainment 11 4 Deprivation 12 Headline summary 12 Key messages 13 5 Education and training provision 14 Headline summary 14 Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) 14 School and further/ higher education provision 15 6 Skills mismatches 16 Headline summary 16 7 Looking forward 17 Headline summary 17 Population projections 17 Education provision projections 17 Employment projections 17 8 Conclusions and considerations 18

4 Introduction What is this report? This is the 2015 summary Regional Skills Assessment (RSA) for the Tayside City Deal region (the City Deal region). It has been developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. It provides the latest data for the City Deal region, refreshing what this means for skills planning. The 2015 RSAs have been designed to support the SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements, and to support SDS in planning its provision for individuals and businesses. Here, the City Deal region RSA is also designed to help regional partners with skills investment planning at the Tayside City Deal spatial level. Individual local authority level summary reports have also been produced. The 2015 series of reports highlight some of the key messages for the City Deal regions. They are summary reports, underpinned by the full data matrix, available at sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/. The data matrix has been redesigned to be more user-friendly, and accompanying guidance on how to use the matrix can be found alongside the full data matrix. What has changed in Scotland since 2014? The economic situation in Scotland has continued to improve in the last year, and the recovery is now more firmly established, with rising GVA and falling unemployment. Against many indicators, Scotland has returned to pre-recession levels. There continues to be a rise in the participation of women and older workers, and youth unemployment previously apparent has started to fall. Still, under-employment remains an issue and productivity growth in Scotland (and the UK) remains weak and largely consumer-driven. In policy terms, a new Economic Strategy for Scotland is in place. This puts the 4 I s Internationalisation, Investment, Innovation and Inclusive Growth as central to the strategy. Increasing exports continues to be a key policy objective, and the prominence of Inclusive Growth reflects the desire for a re-balancing form of economic growth. Innovation, including workplace innovation, continues to be highly important. Investment continues to be necessary for firms to be successful. Existing strategies and policies also remain important, including the 2010 Skills Strategy and the 2014 Developing the Young Workforce - Scotland s Youth Employment Strategy. This 2015 RSA seeks to reflect some of these policy developments. For the first time the data matrix includes deprivation indicators, and there is greater attention paid to inequality issues such as age, disability and gender indicators. There is also more detail on school-level provision, migration, travel to work/study, claimant counts and employment projections. The Tayside City Deal This 2015 City Deal Skills Assessment covers the geographic area of Dundee City, Angus and Perth and Kinross. Data for the region has been calculated by aggregating the data from the three local authority areas, although individual local authority data is presented where this illustrates differences between the three. 3

5 Selected headline indicator changes Economic performance Previous Year Current Year % change Gross Value Added (GVA) ( m) 7,792 (2012) 7,959 (2013) +2.1% GVA per worker 41,400 (2012) 43,000 (2013) +3.9% Number of businesses 15,385 (2013) 15,690 (2014) +2.0% Business births per 10, (2012) 37 (2013) +19.4% BERD per head 102 (2012) 92 (2013) -9.8% Profile of the workforce Total employment 170,000 (2013) 174,200 (2014) +2.5% Professional occupations 34,600 (2013) 31,700 (2014) -8.4% People and skills supply Total population 412,200 (2013) 413,900 (2014) +0.4% ILO unemployed 17,400 (2013/14) 12,900 (2014/15) -25.9% unemployed 1,659 (2014) 1,371 (2015) -17.4% unemployed (claimants) 1,900 (Aug 2014) 1,530 (Aug 2015) -19.5% Deprivation Workless households 27,371 (2012) 25,700 (2013) -6.1% % of children with free school meals Education and training n/a 38% (2015) n/a MA starts 2,140 (2013/14) 2,095 (2014/15) -2.1% MA achievements as % of all leavers 80% (2013/14) 74% (2014/15) -6 percentage points Employability Fund starts - 1,195 (2014/15) - College provision (headcount) 21,580 (2012/13) 21,590 (2013/14) +0.1% College provision of HE 15% (2012/13) 15% (2013/14) No change Total Higher Education students 23,830 (2012/13) 22,881 (2013/14) -4.0% Skills mismatches % of employers reporting hard to fill vacancies % of employers reporting skills shortage vacancies 5% (2014) (next updated 2016) 4% (2014) (next updated 2016) n/a n/a 4

6 1 Economic performance Headline summary GVA continued to rise by 2.1% in the region between 2012 and 2013, 7% of the national total, dominated by the production sector and public administration, health, education. Productivity levels remain below the Scotland and UK averages, although they have increased at a faster rate than average in recent years. Average workplace earnings in Dundee City are similar to Scottish and UK averages, but below average in Perth and Kinross and Angus. However, those living in Perth and Kinross earn the most, although still below national averages. The business base continued to grow although at a lower rate than nationally. The professional, scientific and technical and retail sectors remain the top two sectors in terms of numbers of businesses, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing. Business Expenditure on Research and Development (BERD) per head continues to be below the Scottish average, falling in the most recent year for which there is data (2013). Gross Value Added (GVA) The City Deal region continues to generate a fairly significant proportion of Scotland s output (7%), the same as the previous year, and this is dominated by the production sector (25%) and by public administration, education, health (24%), both above the Scotland proportions. The growth rate from 2012 to 2013 (latest data) continued at 2.1%, slower than the strong 3.8% growth the previous year between 2011 and The growth rate from 2010 to 2013 of 1.8% has been below that for Scotland of 2.6%. Productivity Levels of productivity in the City Deal region are below the Scottish and UK averages, although they have increased in recent years. GVA per worker as a measure of productivity in the region was 43,000 in 2013, higher than 41,400 in 2012, but 9% lower than the Scottish average of 47,000 and 16% below the UK average of 51,000. GVA per worker in the region however has increased by 20% between 2006 and 2013, which is faster than the 18% for Scotland and 17% for the UK. Earnings Most recent (2014) data shows that jobs in Dundee City, at 516 per week, pay close to the Scotland average of 519 and the UK average of 518. Jobs in Perth and Kinross and Angus however pay well below the average, at 447 and 438 respectively. These full-time median workplace earnings increased by 4% in Dundee City , double the Scotland average. However, those living in Perth and Kinross earn marginally more per week than those living in Dundee City and Angus both 468. This suggests that many in Perth and Kinross commune to better-paid jobs in nearby Dundee. For median residence-based earnings, however, all three are below the Scottish average of 518. This is for those in full time work. 5

7 Business base There were 15,690 VAT/ PAYE registered businesses in 2014, up 2.0% from 2013, although lower than the 2.8% Scotland increase. The business base has grown by 2.5% between 2010 and Again, however, this is below the 5% increase in Scotland and 6% rise in the UK Index of Business Base, Source: UK Business Counts Tayside Scotland UK Professional, scientific and technical businesses accounted for 13% of all businesses in 2014, an increase on 12% the previous year in 2013 but below the Scottish average. Conversely, retail accounted for 12% of the business base in 2014, above the Scottish average but one percentage point below the previous year. Given large rural parts of Tayside, the agriculture, forestry and fishing business base is also prominent. Business Base by sector Tayside Scotland Professional, scientific & technical 13% 15% Retail 12% 11% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 11% 9% Construction 10% 9% Accommodation & food services 8% 8% Arts, entertainment, other services 7% 7% Health 6% 6% Production 6% 5% Business admin & support 6% 6% Wholesale 4% 4% Information & communication 3% 5% Motor trades 3% 3% Property 3% 3% Transport & storage 3% 3% Education 2% 3% Finance & insurance 2% 2% Public admin & defence 2% 1% Total 15, ,760 Source: UK Business Counts The profile of businesses by size remains very similar to Scotland, where 80% of registered businesses in the City Deal region are micro firms employing fewer than 10 people. Less than 4% employ more than 50, similar to the situation at the Scotland level. There were 70 businesses in the City Deal region employing more than 250 in There were 1,535 business births in 2013; 37 per 10,000 population, up from 31 per 10,000 the previous year and much closer to the Scotland rate of 40. Levels of Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD) continues to be below the Scotland average at 92 per head compared to 150 per head nationally, and this has was a decrease from 102 per head in the previous year. There are 201 Scottish Enterprise account managed companies, up from 196 the previous year and 9% of the lowland Scotland total (above slightly above Tayside s 8% share of businesses). 6

8 Infrastructure There are some major planned developments in the region over the next five years. These include a number of significant school/community investments in Dundee City including the Harris Academy ( 32m, due 2016), Baldragon Academy ( 30m, 2017/18), and Menzieshill Community Campus, primary school and nursery ( 20m+, 2018/19). There will also be continued infrastructure, transport, culture development in the Central Waterfront area, particularly around Dundee rail station and the Victoria and Albert Museum. The draft Perth City Plan recently agreed a five year delivery plan for Perth and Kinross, which has outlined long-term plans to invest in infrastructure in the key areas of transport connectivity (Cross-Tay link road, Perth to Glasgow/Aberdeen rail upgrades) and digital connectivity (a network of public hotspots, the Broadband connection Voucher Scheme). In Angus, a number of construction projects over the next few years may increase demand for construction and engineering skills, such as new builds in Chapelpark and Guthrie Hill/Smithycroft and flood prevention schemes in Brechin and Arbroath. Infrastructure projects in the area include Phase 1 of Timmergreens and Warddykes primary schools (~ 12m) and Phase 1 and 2 of Brechin ( 27m) and Forfar ( 38m) Community Campuses. 2 Profile of the workforce Headline summary After significant employment losses during the recession, the total has increased in the last two years, and the increase between 2013 and 2014 matched the Scottish average. The health sector dominates the employment base, with 31,000 jobs and 18% of the workforce, a higher proportion than nationally. A third work in the public sector. Motor trade and retail employment is more concentrated than average in the region, as are arts and recreation. There is under-representation in business and financial services. 32,000 are in professional occupations, lower than the Scottish average, which has fallen. Total employment This update provides new employment data for 2013 and Index of Total Employment, Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Tayside Scotland GB 7

9 Total employment in the City Deal region has started to recover over the period to 2014, rising to 174,200, following a loss of some 10,000 jobs between 2009 and The recent recovery from 2012 has been at a similar growth rate to the Scotland level with the City Deal region rate of employment growth increasing between 2013 and 2014 to 2.5%. Still, total employment in the region is 1% below the 2009 level of 176,400. Employment structure by industry Employment in the health sector is significant in the region, and at 31,000 jobs, or 18% of the workforce, this is above the Scottish and Great Britain proportions. A further 15,500 (9%) are employed in education and 10,200 in public administration (6%). A third of jobs (33%) are therefore in the public sector, compared to 29% across Scotland. 21,000 are employed in the retail sector, 12% of the total, a similar proportion to the previous year, one which remains above the Scotland average. Motor trade employment is more concentrated in the region than the Scottish average (and more so over the last year), as are the public services of education and health. The accommodation and food services and the arts, entertainment and recreation sectors are important to the region linked to tourism, as is the retail sector. Conversely, the region continues to be under-represented in financial and business services and in information and communications. Sectoral specialisation exists for sectors with a value above 100%. Tayside City Deal region sector specialisation (2014) Motor trades 157% Wholesale 99% Accommodation & food services 125% Production 96% Retail 121% Information & communication 82% Education 119% Professional, scientific & technical 77% Arts, entertainment & recreation 116% Transport & storage (inc postal) 77% Health 111% Business admin. & support services 74% Property 110% Financial & insurance 52% Construction 107% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 26% Public administration & defence 101% Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Key changes in the top 20 sectors (of all 616, four-digit SIC code sectors) in the City Deal region over the period were the continued expansion of employment in restaurants (around 1,400 jobs) and car sales (1,200 jobs). Secondary education employment also grew by 20% over the period. There has been a decline in other areas of the service industry such as hotels and food and beverage retail (500 jobs each), suggesting a mixed picture for tourism over the three years. Sale of cars (+61%) Public order and safety (-16%) Restaurants (+29%) Hotels (-9%) Secondary education (+20%) Retail of food, beverage, tobacco (-5%) In 2013, there were almost 46,000 jobs in the Scottish Government identified growth sectors in the region, the majority being in Sustainable tourism (17,500) and Food and drink (11,600). The region has a fairly high specialisation in Food and drink (145%), and also as well as specialisms in Sustainable tourism (120%) and Creative industries (103%). It is under-represented in Financial and business services (68%) and Energy (39%). 8

10 Of the total 12.2m Regional Selective Assistance awarded to businesses in the region between 2011 and 2014, the vast majority has gone to businesses in Dundee City, and some 3.4m to businesses in the digital media and enabling technologies sector supporting the rapidly growing video games cluster in Dundee. The RSA grants are estimated to have created/safeguarded some 1,280 jobs in the region. Occupational profile A smaller share of the City Deal region s workforce is employed in professional occupations (17% compared to 20% in Scotland), and this is a proportion which has fallen since the previous year (from 19% and a loss of almost 3,000 jobs). The proportion has also increased by just 6% over the 10 years the last years compared to a 24% increase in professional occupations across Scotland. By contrast, there is a higher proportion across the region employed in skilled trades (which increased to 15% of total employment in 2014, up from 12% in 2013) and a higher proportion employed in lower skilled elementary occupations and as operatives. Occupational Profile, 2014 Source: Annual Population Survey Elementary occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Sales and Customer Service Caring, leisure and other service occupation Skilled Trades Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Associate Prof & Tech Professional Occupations Managers, Directors & Senior Officials 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Tayside Scotland The percentage of care, leisure and other service occupations has grown by 20% since 2004 in the City Deal region, and both skilled trades and associate professional and technical have risen by 16%. The greatest decline has been an 11% fall in the number of process, plant and machine operatives in the region. 9

11 3 People and skills supply Headline summary The City Deal region population continues to grow, at a faster rate than the Scottish average since 2004, although this rate has slowed in recent years. The regional employment rate is lower than for Scotland, due to lower rates in Dundee. Unemployment fell between 2012/13 and 2014/15 but at half the Scotland decrease. The number of young people out of work and not in education or training are below 2013 levels. Around 39,000 in the region are work-limiting disabled, and although the proportion of the workforce this represents is around the Scotland average, it is higher in Dundee. The proportion of school leavers in the region entering Higher Education increased in the year to 2013/2014 although this is lower than the Scotland average. More young people in the City Deal region than average go on to Further Education More in the region have high level qualifications than in Scotland and the UK, although slightly more also have no qualifications. Population The City Deal region population has continued to grow in recent years, although at a rate below the Scotland and UK average since At an estimated 413,900, the 2014 population was slightly higher than The population has increased 6% since 2004, which compares to 5% growth in Scotland and 8% growth in the UK over the same period Index of Total Population, Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Tayside Scotland UK The largest increases have been those aged (of 22%), double the rate of increase in Scotland. There has been a decrease of 18% in the number of year olds in the City Deal region, above the 15% decrease for Scotland. Almost 28,000 have left the area over the 10 year period, although the population has increased overall. 10

12 Labour market participation Since 2013 the regional employment rate has fallen below the Scottish average, and is currently 71%, two percentage points lower than the 73% across Scotland. This masks considerable variation within the region. In 2014, the employment rate for Dundee was 65%, eight points below average, whereas in Angus this was 73% and in Perth and Kinross the employment rate was 77%. 74% of jobs in the region are full time, comparable with Scotland as a whole. Jobs in Dundee City and Perth and Kinross are less likely to be part time positions where 75% of jobs there are full time, and 25% part time. The proportion of part time jobs is higher in Angus, 28%, with a correspondingly lower proportion of full time jobs (72%). In 2012/2013 there were 16,100 ILO unemployed (those out of work and actively seeking work), and this had fallen to 12,900 (or 20%) by 2014/2015, although there had been an increase in the intervening year. This was close to the 21% decrease over this period across Scotland. The ILO unemployment rate in the region in 2014/2015 was 7%, compared to 6% in Scotland and 6% the UK. Again this masks sub-regional variations with the rate 5% in Perth and Kinross, 6% in Angus and 9% in Dundee. In 2015 there were 1,371 unemployed young people aged 16 to 24 in the City Deal region, down by 17% from the previous year, although the fall was 34% across Scotland. There were 1,530 young people aged out of work and claiming Jobseekers Allowance (as of August 2015). There were also 1,230 young people described as Not in Employment, Education or Training in This has fallen by 36% since 2010, in line with the Scottish average. Again, the rates at 7.9% are higher in Dundee than in Perth and Kinross, 4.2% and in Angus, 5.6%, which are lower than the 6.4% average across Scotland. The proportion of those work-limited through disability in the City Deal region is 15%, in line with the Scotland and UK averages. Within the region, 12% of all those aged in Perth and Kinross, and 15% of those in Angus are work-limited through disability, whilst the proportion is 18% in Dundee, higher than for Scotland. 38,800 people in the region are work-limited through disability. Travel to work distances differ somewhat to the Scottish averages. 12% work from home in the City Deal region (11% nationally) and 16% travel less than 2km (13% nationally). 16% travel more than 20km, compared to 13% nationally. Whilst more travel either short or long distances than across Scotland as a whole, fewer travel intermediate distances 24% travel between 5km and 20km, compared to 32% in Scotland. 11

13 Qualifications and attainment There was an increase in the proportion of school leavers entering Higher Education in the City Deal region in 2013/2014, 36% of the total, up from 35% in 2012/2013 but below the Scotland average of 39%. This varies from 32% in Dundee to 41% in Perth and Kinross. The proportion in the region entering Further Education is 29%, above the 24% for Scotland. Just under a quarter entered employment, and this has increased from a year previous. The proportion unemployed (seeking or otherwise) has fallen, to 6% in 2013/2014 (from 8% in previous year). 10% of those aged years in the City Deal region have no qualifications; in Scotland and the UK this is 9%. Fewer have lower level of qualifications 9% across the region, compared to 11% in Scotland and 12% in the UK. By contrast, more have high level qualifications (41% at SCQF 7-12, compared to 35% in Scotland and 36% in the UK). This is 45% in Perth and Kinross, 41% in Angus, and 37% in Dundee. In terms of year olds, 8% have no qualifications in the region, compared with 7% of this age range in Scotland. In contrast, a slightly larger proportion of young people have high level qualifications in the region than nationally 26% versus 24%. 4 Deprivation Headline summary Average household earnings in Angus and Perth and Kinross are higher overall than those across Scotland, but lower in Dundee. There are some 26,000 workless households in the region. Almost a third of Dundee s datazones are in the most deprived 15% in Scotland. The proportion of school pupils in the region entitled to free school meals is marginally lower than Scotland, but considerably higher in Dundee. The 2015 data matrix includes data on deprivation for the first time. This affects both labour market supply and the skills support needs of individuals. On the whole, the City Deal region is more affluent than the national average, yet this masks concentrations of residents on low incomes and some quite high numbers suffering relative deprivation, particularly in Dundee, as well as very specific pockets of deprivation in parts of Perth and Kinross. 12

14 Key messages More households in Dundee earn less than 10,000 per year, 16%, than the Scottish average of 13%. By contrast, fewer households in Angus, 9%, and in Perth and Kinross, 12% have average household earnings of less than 10,000 per year. Conversely, only 20% of households in Dundee have incomes above 30,000, which is much lower than the Scotland average of 31%. The proportion is slightly above average in Angus and Perth and Kinross, 33%. 13% of Perth and Kinross households are workless households and 16% of Angus households are workless, whilst 25% of Dundee households are, compared to 20% in Scotland, and 17% in the UK. This equates to some 25,700 workless households in the City Deal region (2013). The employment domain of the latest (2012) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides further information on employment deprivation. 13% of the region s 496 datazones (65) are in the 15% most deprived datazones in Scotland. Of these 65 datazones, 56 (86%) are in Dundee, five in Angus and four in Perth and Kinross. In Dundee therefore, more than 31% of datazones are in the 15% most deprived datazones in Scotland. In all, 38% of those at school in the region are entitled to free school meals, below the Scottish average of 39%. In Dundee however then proportion is much higher at 46% than average, while in Angus and Perth and Kinross the proportion is lower, at 37% and 32% respectively. 13

15 5 Education and training provision Headline summary The number of MA starts in the region decreased slightly since the previous year, with hospitality, retail, business and administration, engineering and construction (building) being the most popular frameworks. There were over 21,500 FE students at Dundee and Angus College and Perth College in 2013/14, a similar number to the previous year, with business and administration and care the most common courses taken. 15% of these students were studying HE at college. 22,881 students were studying at Higher Education Institutions in the region in 2013/2014, a 4% fall from the previous year, with 80% of the students from outwith the region. There were nearly 7,400, graduates from the region in 2013/14, an increase from the previous year, amounting to 9% of all Scotland graduates. Over half of these went into full time work and over a fifth into the human health and social work sector. Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) There were 2,095 MA starts in 2014/2015 supported by SDS, a marginal decrease on the 2,140 in 2013/2014. Over half of these starts were male (56%), although this is lower than the 59% in Scotland, and the remaining 44% were female. There were 2,325 leavers in 2014/2015. The most popular frameworks for starts were in hospitality (440), retail (220), business and administration (175), engineering (140) and construction (building) (120). This was followed by automotive (110), social services (children and young people (110) and social services and healthcare (110). Some of these remain dominated by one gender or the other, with males dominating engineering and construction (building). Females dominated business and administration, hospitality, social services and young people and social services and healthcare. In other sectors such as retail, there was more of balance. In all, 57% of MA starts in the City Deal region in 2014/2015 were between 16 and 19 years of age, higher than the Scottish average of 53%. The remaining proportion of starts included 29% of year olds and 15% aged 25 years and above. Achievements at 74% in 2014/2015, as a percentage of all leavers in the City Deal region, was lower than the previous year, which was very high at 80%. The rates in the region, in general, have fallen in the past five years, from 76% in 2010/2011. Nonetheless, the current rate of achievement is in line with the Scotland average. Employability Fund (EF) The EF supports a range of interventions to support employability. There were 1,195 EF starts in 2014/2015. Almost three fifths of these (57%) were male, lower than the 63% in Scotland. The number of female EF starts was higher than the Scottish average (44% compared to 37%). EF starts in the region are typically younger than the Scotland average. Within this, there were 150 starts on the Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR), the new national work placement and class-based Award, involving 65 employers. 14

16 School and Further/ Higher Education provision School provision For the first time the data matrix provides information on school provision. There were 21,296 pupils enrolled at secondary school across the region in 2014, 28% of whom were S5 and S6, a little lower than the 29% across Scotland. The school roll is projected to fall slightly to 2018, from 20,800 in 2015 to 20,500 in Across Scotland, the trend is for a 2% fall over the period to College provision College provision is via Dundee and Angus College (formed from the merger of Dundee College and Angus College in 2013/2014) and Perth College UHI. 89% of Tayside residents who are at college study locally. 21,590 students (headcount) were studying at Dundee and Angus College and Perth College UHI in 2013/2014, similar to the 21,580 in 2012/ % of this was at FE level, 15% at HE level. In all, 30% were from outside the region, up from the 13% in 2012/2013. A lower proportion than the Scottish average are aged between 16 and 19 (and lower than the previous year). As in 2012/13, a higher proportion of students aged years old are on full time courses. 55% of college students in the area are female, slightly higher than the Scottish average of 52%; overall 11% are from the most deprived 10% - (compared to 16% in Scotland) reflecting the relative affluence of parts of the region. Business and administration (13% of courses) and care (11% of courses) were those most taken up, with business and administration above the national average and both courses similar to the proportions in 2012/2013. Engineering is the third most popular choice (9%) although below the 10% in Scotland. These include full time and part time courses. University provision In all, 22,881 students (headcount) were studying at the three Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the region in 2013/2014 (University of Dundee, Abertay University and the Perth campus of the Highlands and Islands University). This was a fall of 4% on the previous year (23,830 students), and there has been a fluctuating trend in student headcount in recent years, with a peak in 2011/12 after a low in 2008/09. 20% of these students were from within the region, compared with 29% in 2012/13, generally reflecting that these are national institutions. A higher proportion than the Scotland average are aged over 25 (38% compared to 34%). Overall, 57% of HEI students in the area are male, very similar to the Scottish average. Subjects allied to medicine (23%), biological sciences (11%), and social studies, creative arts and design and social studies (all 9%) were the most popular courses in 2013/14. Graduates There were 7,386 graduates from the City Deal region in 2013/14, up from 7,220 in 2012/2013, and this is 9% of all graduates from Scotland s HEIs. This included 5,292 graduates with a first degree (72%), and a further 2,094 postgraduates (28%). 15

17 Six months after graduating, over half of graduates were in full time work (56%), less than the 61% nationally but higher than the 47% the previous year. 13% were in part time work, 19% were in further study and 6% working and studying. The proportion of the region s graduates who were unemployed was the same as the Scotland average of 5%. The City Deal region s graduates were most commonly employed in the public sector - human health and social work (21%) and education (14%) as was the case nationally. A further 7% of graduates were employed in the wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, reflecting the Tayside sector mix, and 6% were employed in professional, scientific and technical activities. 6 Skills mismatches Headline summary Nearly eight in 10 employers in the region had recruited 2-3 years prior to the survey. FE/HE leavers, college leavers and school leavers in the region were deemed less workready by employers in comparison to the Scottish average. Employers were more slightly more likely to report vacancies than in Scotland, but hard to fill vacancies and skills shortages vacancies are in line with the Scotland average. Skills gaps are most likely in care, leisure, operatives and elementary occupations. There is no new data on skills mismatches beyond that presented in last year s RSA, given that the survey is undertaken every two years. The key messages to re-emphasise are: 79% of employers in the City Deal region had recruited in the 2-3 years prior to the survey, 12 percentage points higher than the Scottish average. 29% had taken on leavers from Scottish education institutions, above the 26% in Scotland. Of those recruiting leavers, 78% of those from universities were regarded as well or very well prepared for work, below the Scottish average of 85%. 74% of those from colleges were regarded as well or very well prepared for work, also below the Scottish average of 78%. This was also the case for school leavers, with only 60% viewed as well or very prepared for work, below the Scottish average of 65%. Of those reported to be poorly prepared, the main reasons cited are a lack of world/ life experience or maturity, poor attitude/personality, lack of motivation or lack of required skills or competencies. Employers in the region reported a similar proportion of current vacancies to the Scotland average (16%, compared to 15%); fewer hard to fill vacancies (5% compared to 6% nationally) and a similar proportion of skills shortage vacancies (4% compared to 4%). Almost a quarter of the City Deal region employers (23%) reported that not all of their staff are fully proficient, above the Scottish average of 19% - with skills gaps most likely in care and leisure, operatives and elementary occupations. The City Deal region has high concentrations of employment in tourism and life sciences. Skills Investment Plans have been produced for these sectors, highlighting a series of priority actions to address current and future skills gaps and shortages including ensuring staff have skills to deliver a high quality visitor experience in the tourism sector and attracting and anchoring key skills in the life sciences sector. The Skills Investment Plans can be found here: sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/skills-investment-plans/ 16

18 7 Looking forward Headline summary The population of the region is forecast to continue to increase, by over 24,000 and 6% to 2024, faster than Scotland and UK growth rates. The greatest increases are forecast for those of retirement age, and school roll numbers are set to fall slightly in the next five years in line with the fall at the Scotland level. Employment growth is also forecast, of more than 5% to 2022, with the proportion growing fastest in information technology and health and social work. Expansion/replacement demand in the region is greatest for tourism, social care and construction. Population projections 2012 based-projections indicate that the population of the City Deal region is forecast to increase by 24,211 over the period; an increase of 6%. This outpaces projected growth of 5% at the UK level and 4% at the Scotland level. Until 2022, the largest proportionate increases in the City Deal region are expected in those of retirement age, where there is anticipated to be a 25% increase in those aged over 75 and a 13% increase in those aged years (although both increases are below the Scottish average). This may have implications for the region in terms of pressure on health and social care services. There is, however, an increase projected in all ages, except for years which is expected to fall by 1%, although this decline is forecast to be greater at 7% across Scotland. Similarly, the years age group is expected to remain constant in the City Deal region whilst it is forecast to fall by 4% across the country. Education provision projections As the summary indicates, the school roll is projected to decline gradually to 2018, by around 2%. Across Scotland, the trend is for a 2% fall over the period to Employment projections Based on 2012 figures, national employment figures are projected to rise by 5.3% between 2012 and 2022, with the fastest increases occurring between 2017 and The sectors with the largest projected employment growth over the period are information technology (32%), health and social work (17%), real estate (14%) and electricity and gas, finance and insurance and construction (all 13%). For Dundee City particularly, the technology sector is highly specialised and this is set to continue, with the creation of more jobs in the area. There is, however, projected to be considerable fall in agriculture employment (-15%), other manufacturing (-12%), public administration (-11%) and mining and quarrying (- 10%). In employment terms, agriculture, production and the public sector are less relied upon in the City Deal region than they are elsewhere in Scotland, meaning these declines are likely to more felt elsewhere. 17

19 8 Conclusions and considerations The regional economy has started to grow and at a pace close to the Scotland average after Tayside had been strongly affected by the recession. Output and productivity are increasing and the business base is growing, and employment increases matched the Scotland average in the last year. The region has benefited from a growth in skilled occupations and in certain sectors, including a number of service sectors. At the same time, there is variable economic performance within the region, and in the main Tayside has not returned to pre-recession levels. Employment is still 1% lower than in 2009, although the employment rate has now returned to the Scotland average. Whilst overall employment has risen, the number employed in professional occupations has fallen, counter to Scotland. The business base has grown, but slower than the national average. Within Tayside, Dundee City continues to fare less well then Angus and Perth & Kinross with employment rates significantly lower in Dundee, where there are also some large concentrations of deprivation. Jobs in Dundee pay close to the Scottish average, but many of these are taken up by those in Perth and Kinross (and to a lesser extent Angus) where resident-based earnings are higher. Average household earnings are lower in Dundee than in the rest of the region. A higher proportion of Tayside young people go on to Further Education, although progression to Higher Education is increasing. There is a continuing need to help school and College leavers meet employer expectations who regard leavers as less work-ready than in other parts of the country. Awards such as the Certificate of Work Readiness improving work readiness should help this. MA achievements have in the past been strong in the region although they are now in line with the Scotland average. Further population and employment growth is predicted, including amongst those of retirement age. Population growth will be faster than across Scotland and there will be a requirement to meet the needs of older people, requiring those with health and social care skills. There will also be a challenge to meet the needs of the demand for tourism and construction skills. Recent employment growth has been in the skilled trades, rather than in professional occupations, and the region remains under-represented in higher value added sectors of financial and business services and information and communications. Overall there is a need to increase demand for skills in these sectors, and thereafter to ensure the supply of skills exists to meet this demand. Some key considerations arising are therefore: How can the region grow its base of knowledge economy sectors and increase demand for skills in professional occupations, given the region is losing these jobs at a time of national growth? How can the region continue to meet the demand for skilled trades, given employment growth in these occupations, including the construction sector where there is strong replacement demand? How are the needs of the tourism sector best met, given replacement demand and its prominence in the regional economy? 18

20 How can the supply of skills best meet the needs of the growing elderly population forecast in the future, given already strong demand for health and social care skills? What more can be done to include more of those from Dundee in the labour market, given relatively large concentrations of deprivation there and lower than average employment rates? Conversely, how can the needs of other parts of the region be met when there is a much tighter labour market, such as in Perth and Kinross? How can the gender domination in certain College/MA subjects be overcome when this has persisted over time? What more can be done to improve the work readiness of young people, given employer feedback of lower levels of work readiness amongst school leavers and College graduates? 19