URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 67

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1 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 5.1 Demographic Profile Introduction The demographic information contained in the synopsis is derived from the supposedly inaccurate 2001 Census data. In calculating historical population growth, reference was made to the 1991 and 1996 census data and the infrastructure Investment Guidelines for the provision of affordable and Sustainable Services a study that was undertaken during 2001 by the CSM Technical Work Group. 3 It is important to note that the enumerator areas for the 1996 Census were not spatially compatible with the study area for either 1991, or 1996, and as such the following demographic analysis for the study area has been aggregated and therefore cannot be regarded as definitive. The approach followed in the analysis and interpretation of the census data has taken the form of a systematic review and interpolation of the existing assessments of the current base data relative to the current understanding of the trends within the study area Total Population According to the 2001 Census data, the total population of the Saldanha Bay Municipal Area is as follows: Town 2001 St Helena Bay 8104 Hopefield 6748 Jacobsbaai 130 Langebaan 4272 Vredenburg Paternoster 1448 Saldanha TOTAL TABLE 6: TOTAL POPULATION FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA BASED ON THE 2001 CENSUS DATA 31% 12% 10% 0% 6% St Helena Bay Hopefield Jacobsbaai Langebaan 2% 39% Vredenburg Paternoster Saldanha FIGURE 16: TOTAL POPULATION FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY SOURCE: COMPILED FROM 2001 CENSUS DATA 3 Combined Services Model compiled by a Technical Work Group consisting of Municipal Councillors, Officials, SA and Engineering Consultants during 2001 and finalised in February 2002.

2 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 68 According to Table 5 the highest percentage (77%) of the population in the Saldanha Bay Municipal Area resides in Vredenburg (50%) and Saldanha (27%). This can be ascribed to the fact that most of the employment opportunities and possible economic opportunities occur in these two urban settlements (refer to Plan 19). St. Helena Bay displays the third highest population (10%). St. Helena Bay as a fishing harbour and fish processing area is also growing as a popular retirement town with several new residential developments including the developments at Britannia Bay and Shelly Point Population by Race (refer Plan 19) The following table and figures are indicative of the race compilation of the Saldanha Bay Municipality. This table and figure indicate the difference in race compilation in the different settlements of the study area (read in conjunction with Plan 19). African Coloured Asian White Total St Helena Bay Hopefield Jacobsbaai Langebaan Vredenburg Paternoster Saldanha Saldanha Bay Mun West Coast District Western Cape TABLE 7: POPULATION BY RACE DATA According to the census data the bulk of the population in the study area fall within the socalled coloured population group. The race compilation of the study area is consistent with the race compilation of the West Coast District Municipality. The bulk of the population are from the previously disadvantaged and marginalised communities and is indicative of the need to address historical imbalances in terms of service provision, community facilities, poverty alleviation and job creation. It should be noted that a portion of the enumerator area for the Hopefield rural area of the 1996 census falls outside the study area and the population figures for the rural areas have been aggregated.

3 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 69 The population compilation for the different settlements within the study area as well as from the total study area and the West Coast District Area are shown in the following figures: West Coast District Municipal Area and Saldanha Bay Municipal Area: West Coast Municipality (DC1) 20% 2% 5% 0% 73% African/Black Coloured Indian/Asian White 31% 12% 10% 0% 6% St Helena Bay Hopefield Jacobsbaai Langebaan 2% 39% Vredenburg Paternoster Saldanha Hopefield: Hopefield 0% 20% 1% Black Coloured Asian 79% White

4 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 70 Langebaan and Paternoster: Langebaan 54% 4% 0% 42% Black Coloured Asian White Paternoster 0%7% 84% 9% Black Coloured Asian White Saldanha and St. Helena Bay: Saldanha 1% 15% 22% Black Coloured Asian White 62% St Helena Bay 0% 10% 25% Black 65% Coloured Asian White

5 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 71 Vredenburg and Jacobsbaai: Vredenburg 1% 19% 63% 17% Black Coloured Asian White Jacobsbaai 0%2% 98% Black Coloured Asian White FIGURE 17: SALDANHA BAY POPULATION BY RACE DATA Population by Age and Gender The following table indicates the age/gender composition of the Saldanha Municipality Total Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female St Helenabaai Hopefield Jacobsbaai Langebaan Vredenburg Paternoster Saldanha Saldanha Bay Municipality TABLE 8: AGE/ GENDER COMPOSITION OF THE SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY

6 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 72 The following figure indicates the age gender compilation per settlement for the study area: i. Hopefield 4 : A high birth rate and a declining population in the age group, increased population in the age group with significantly reduced population figures for the over 65 age group. This kind of population pyramid is typical of a developing community. Developing communities are characterised by high birth rates and also higher mortality rates. The area displays a dependency level of 41%, based on the assumption that children under the age of 15 have no sources of income and people over the age of 65 are also seen as dependent. A large proportion of the total population of Hopefield are under the age of 30. This may have implications for the future provision of schools in the area. The population pyramid for the Hopefield rural areas is similar to Hopefield Town. It appears that there is a decline in the age group in both the urban and rural areas of Hopefield. This may be an indication that there are not sufficient employment opportunities for younger job seekers in the labour market who then migrate to other areas for employment opportunities. In the age group, it appears that there is a definite difference between the gender compilations for Hopefield. In the Hopefield urban areas there are 54% females and only 46% males. In the Rural areas of Hopefield the compilation is 55% male and 45% females. This may be an indication that several of the men are migration workers on farms in the area and only return to their families during holiday times or weekends. In the Hopefield rural areas 3% of the population is over the age of 65 years and in the Hopefield town, 6% of the population is over the age of 65 years. This may indicate that farmers/ farm workers move to the town of Hopefield when the age of retirement is reached. This factor may have an implication on the provision of social services for the aged. Hopefield Male Female FIGURE 18: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR HOPEFIELD 4 Note: When looking at the age/ gender composition for Hopefield it is necessary to interpret the figures for the rural and urban population in conjunction with one another.

7 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 73 Hopefield Rural Male Female FIGURE 19: AGE / GENDER COMPILATION FOR HOPEFIELD RURAL AREA ii. Langebaan: The population pyramid of Langebaan is typical of a more developed community. The Langebaan community has a lower birth rate as well as a lower mortality rate amongst infants. Over 40% of the population of Langebaan are between the ages of and 7,9% of Langebaan s total population are recorded in the 65+ year age group. Langebaan Male Female FIGURE 20: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR LANGEBAAN iii. Paternoster: Lower population figures for the age group is indicative that there are not sufficient employment opportunities in the local area and that young people are migrating to the larger urban settlements for job opportunities. The data shows that 34 % of the Paternoster population is under the age of 15 which has implications in terms of the provision of social services. Paternoster has a high (relative to the Paternoster total population figures) population in the age group which can be interpreted to be indicative of the stability (in terms of the in and out migration) of the Paternoster population.

8 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 74 Paternoster Male Female FIGURE 21: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR PATERNOSTER iv. Saldanha: The Saldanha population pyramid is typical of a developing newly urbanized community, with lower birth rates, lower mortality rates amongst infants and with 60% of the population being under the age of 30. In this regard, this young population profile has definite implications for the future provision of services. There is a marked difference between the age group and the 65+ age group (only 3,2% of the total population). This could indicate that people go elsewhere to retire due to a lack of social facilities for the aged. Saldanha Male Female FIGURE 22: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR SALDANHA v. St. Helena Bay: The population pyramid for St. Helena Bay is typical of a developing community with high birth rates and high mortality rates and a young population profile. It appears also that the community of St. Helena Bay has a lower life expectancy (or retire elsewhere), as only 2,4% of the total population falls within the 65+ years category. The young population profile has implications for the future provision of community services.

9 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 75 St. Helena Bay Male Female FIGURE 23: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR ST. HELENA BAY vi. Vredenburg Urban: The data for Vredenburg is also typical of a developing community with high birth rates and high mortality rates amongst the infants. Lower population figures for the age group may also indicate that there are not enough employment opportunities in the area and that young people are migrating to larger urban settlements for economic reasons. When the population of the Vredenburg rural areas and the Vredenburg urban area is compared it is clear that there is a very high level of urbanisation. The high population figures (relative to the Vredenburg rural population may be an indication that several of the males are migratory workers on farms in the area and only return to their families during holiday times or weekends. Vredenburg Male Female FIGURE 24: AGE/ GENDER COMPILATION FOR VREDENBURG

10 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 76 Vredenburg Rural Male Female FIGURE 25: AGE / GENDER COMPILATION FOR THE VREDENBURG RURAL AREA HIV/ Aids During an interview with Mr. Fabricius and Ms. Petch of the Community and Health Services Department of Saldanha Bay Municipality the HIV/ Aids situation in the Saldanha Bay Municipal Area was discussed. Although no accurate Aids figures were available they are fully aware of the seriousness of the HIV/ Aids pandemic. According to Ms. Petch only about 40% of the people who are affected with the virus are treated by municipal health services. It is assumed that the remaining 60% of the infected people are treated in the private sector. It is evident however that since the development of big industries in the areas such Saldanha Steel the virus has spread drastically. According to Ms. Petch the bulk of the population that are infected with the virus are in the age group, which is consistent with the national trend. This may also explain, together with other factors, the trends displayed in the population pyramids of several of the communities where a lower population in the age group is being noted Projected Population Growth The following table indicates population figures that are available for the Saldanha Bay Municipal area. The most reliable population data being the 2001 CSM 5 figures. The source of the 1999 figures is the West Coast urbanisation report that was compiled by Bertie van Zyl Incorporated. The 1996 census data was the source for the 1996 population figures. Being a new settlement no population figures from SA Statistical Services were available for Jacobsbaai for The official census results of the 2001 Census were used, although they are believed to be inaccurate. 5 Combined Services Model compiled by a Technical Work Group consisting of Municipal Councillors, Officials, Development Bank of SA and Engineering Consultants during 2001 and finalised in February 2002.

11 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE TOTAL 1991 TOTAL 1996 TOTAL 1999 TOTAL 2001 TOTAL Hopefield Jacobsbaai N/A N/A N/A N/A 130 Langebaan Paternoster Saldanha * * St Helena Bay Vredenburg *26091 * TOTAL TABLE 9: POPULATION FIGURES FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY FROM 1985 TO 2001 SOURCE: CSM REPORT, BERTIE V ZYL INCORPORATED; 2001 CENSUS; 1996 CENSUS; 1991 CENSUS; 1985 CENSUS. * The 1985 and 1991 census data grouped the data for Saldanha and Vredenburg together and no separate data for the towns were available. The separate data sets used were sourced from the existing spatial development frameworks that have been compiled for the area. From the abovementioned data table, growth rates for the area were calculated per town. Various disparities are reflected with these growth rates per town. However, these disparities may be attributed to drastic changes and growth in the local economy resulting in migration within and into the study area. The population growth rates for the towns within the municipal area are shown in the following tables: Hopefield: Langebaan: Period Growth Rate Period Growth Rate % ,4% ,3% ,9% AVG ,58% ,2% ,77% AVG ,09% Paternoster: Saldanha: Period Growth Rate Period Growth Rate ,4% ,97% ,8% % ,2% AVG % AVG ,16% St Helena Bay: Vredenburg: Period Growth Rate Period Growth Rate ,2% ,16% ,08% ,1% ,01% ,99% ,9% ,68% AVG ,45% AVG ,02%

12 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 78 According to the Greater Saldanha Bay and Environs IDF (VKE, 1999:7) two possible projections for the population growth were made: Projection 1: According to Stewart Scott Traffic Consultants an estimated population growth rate of 12,5% can be expected until 2005, thereafter a growth rate of 7,5% up to 2010 and thereafter a growth rate of 5% to 2015 and a growth rate of 3% between 2015 and 2020 (VKE, 1999:7). Projection 2: An average growth rate of 4,5% for the area was predicted by Wesgro (VKE, 1999:7). This projection is regarded as conservative, given the fact that according to this projection, a total population of was projected for 2015 and according to the CSM population figures the population of the Saldanha Bay Municipal area is already On the basis of the above information, it is clear that an accurate growth rate will be difficult to predict given the volatility of economic cycles investment decisions and factors such as HIV/Aids. However, given the differences between the demographics characteristics of the different settlements in the study area, growth rates can be calculated separately for the different settlements in the area, the average calculated growth rate for the areas for the past 15 years and then projected. The population projections for the different settlements will then be as follows: Hopefield (1,58%) Jacobsbaai (3%) Langebaan (9,09%) Paternoster (6,16%) Saldanha 6 (6,91%) St Helena Bay 7 (7,01%) Vredenburg (3,02%) TOTAL TABLE 10: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA The average growth rate for the Saldanha Municipal Area for the past 15 years was 5,25%. The average national growth rate for South Africa is 1,38% and the average growth rate for the West Coast District from 1985 to 1996 was 3,8% (Bertie van Zyl Inc, 1999:14). It is evident that the population growth for the study area is higher than the growth of the West Coast and of the growth of the national population. The high population growth can be ascribed to the creation of job opportunities in the industrial sector in the study area. 6 7 Based on the average growth rate of 6,91% for the past 5 years. Based on the more moderate growth rate between of 7,01%

13 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 79 Three scenarios can be projected for the population growth of the Saldanha Municipal Area: Scenario 1: The population proceeds to grow at a rate of 5,25%. Scenario 2: The population proceeds to grow at a rate of 5,25% until 2010 and thereafter the population growth evens out to a rate of 3,8% which is consistent with the growth rate projection for the West Coast District Council area. Scenario 3: The population grows at a rate of 3,8% according to the West Coast District s population growth rate. The following table and figure indicate the possible population projections for the study area SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO SA RATE TABLE 11: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA GROWTH RATE POPULATION YEAR FIGURE 26: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SA KOERS It is important to note that, due to data gaps and changing variables, a more detailed specialist study needs to be undertaken to determine accurate population growth statistics in the study area.

14 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE The socio-economic status of the population of an area is a recognized indicator of issues affecting the past and current economic growth of an area and its potential for future growth. The Saldanha Bay Municipal Area can be considered as economically significant in terms of its current economic contribution to the Western Cape economy. The objective of this section being to provide a spatial overview of the various socio-economic indicators within the Saldanha Bay Municipal area. 6.1 Income Distribution (refer Plan 20) Poverty can be defined as a lack of resources to meet basic needs, such as adequate food, shelter and basic amenities. It also represents the inability to meet higher order needs, such as the need for personal fulfilment, recreation and freedom (DBSA, 1998:37). Income related factors are direct determinants of poverty levels. The income earnings per household are an indicator of purchasing power of communities and reflect their standard of living, which in turn has implications for the future growth potential and need for certain types of social/ commercial services. Income per household is closely linked with the dependency ratio as discussed in Section of this report (refer Plan 20). < R800 R800 - R1600 R R3200 > R3200 TOTAL Number % Number % Number % Number % Jacobsbaai Hopefield Langebaan Paternoster Saldanha St. Helena Bay Vredenburg TOTAL TABLE 12: INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA Approximately 20% of households earn below R9 600/annum (R800/month) which is below the recognised poverty line (1998, DBSA); The low income earned in the local settlements in turn results in a diminished capacity to save and invest. This has longer-term impacts on the strength and resilience of the local economy due to the lack of local investment, especially in terms of sustained growth and development of the secondary and tertiary sectors. 6.2 Employment Status The employment status of an area provides indicative data on both the labour market/labour force 8 and the proportion of the population not economically active. 8 Labour Force: The proportion of the economically active population participating in economic activity.

15 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 81 Table 11 can be interpreted as follows: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) The majority (60,8%) of the economically active population in the study area are employed. Except for Hopefield which has an economically inactive population of 41%, which relates to a high labour dependency ratio. 9 Labour dependency ratios for the areas are as follows (i.e. for every one person working there is a factor of people who are dependent on that person): Unemployment is the highest in Paternoster at 10,8%. This may be due to strict new legislation with regard to fishing quotas and depleted resources as Paternoster is primarily a fishing settlement, although tourism related activities in the medium term should increase employment. Hopefield : 1 : 4,6 Hopefield Rural : 1 : 0,5 Langebaan : 1 : 0,8 Paternoster : 1 : 1,3 Saldanha : 1 : 1 St. Helena Bay : 1 : 1 Vredenburg : 1 : 1,1 Vredenburg Rural : 1 : 0,8 Employed % Employed Unemployedlooking for work % Unemploye d / Informal % Hopefield Hopefield Rural Langebaan Paternoster Saldanha St Helenabaai Vredenburg Vredenburg Rural TOTAL for WC West Coast Munic (DC1) Western Cape TABLE 13: EMPLOYMENT STATUS FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY SOURCE: STATISTICS SA CENSUS 1996 Total 6.3 Employment per Economic Sector The number of people employed in the area can be further analysed by assessing the number of people employed in various economic sectors (refer Plan 21). Table 13 indicates the employment per economic sector for the Saldanha Bay Municipal Area. 9 Labour Dependency Ratio: The number of economically inactive people in relation to the number of economically active people. The number of people supported per one employed person.

16 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 82 It is clear that the sector, manufacturing, is the main employment source in the study area and the sector, agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing is the second highest employment source in the study area. This can be ascribed to the development of Saldanha Steel and related downstream industries. This employment trend is reflected by the GGP contribution of the various sectors (Sub section 6.3.4). The lower contributions of the agricultural sector (fishing) are cause for concern given the fact this sector was historically the largest source of employment in the area. Figure 27 indicates the Employment per economic sector for the Saldanha Bay Municipal area according to the 1996 census data. Hopefield Hopefield Rural Saldanha St. Helena Bay Langebaan Paternoster Vredenburg Vredenburg Rural Agriculture, hunting, forestry fishing Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Wholesale & retail trade Transport, storage & communication Financial, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services Private households Exterritorial organisations Representatives of foreign governments Industry NEC or unspecified Total TABLE 14: EMPLOYMENT PER ECONOMIC SECTOR FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY SOURCE: STATISTICS SA, CENSUS 1996 TOTAL Employment per Economic Sector for Saldanha Bay Municipality Agriculture, hunting, forestry fishing Mining & quarrying Manufacturing 5% 0% 7% 15% Electricity, gas & water supply 17% Construction Wholesale & retail trade 4% 8% 11% 10% 1% 22% Transport, storage & communication Financial, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services Private households Exterritorial organisations Representatives of foreign governments Industry NEC or unspecified FIGURE 27: EMPLOYMENT PER ECONOMIC SECTOR FOR SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPALITY SOURCE: SA STATISTICAL SERVICES, CENSUS 1996

17 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE Gross Geographical Product The Gross Geographical Product (GGP) in the value of all goods and services produced in an area (or region) in one year. The GGP is an important indication of the production activity of an area. It is difficult to exactly determine the GGP for the Saldanha Bay Municipal Area as no specific data is available from Statistics SA and other information available may be outdated which reflects the more recent trends in the developing economy of the municipal area. According to Wesgro the Gross Regional Product for the West Coast for 1994 was R326 Million. This GRP was divided by: Primary Sector : 13,2% Secondary Sector : 49% Trade & Finance : 21,8% Community Services & Other : 15,8% Due to the outdated census data, and other inconsistencies between various data basis, it is recommended that a more detailed specialist report of the overall economy of the municipal area and its context within the broader economy is undertaken as part of the sectoral economic input to the Saldanha Bay Municipal IDP. 6.5 Literacy Levels Education creates opportunities for individuals, expanding the range of occupational options in life from which they may choose. The education levels of the population of an area impacts directly on the longterm welfare of its community, through its indirect influence on health, fertility and life expectancy. Education further helps to increase the value of other forms of social and physical investment (DBSA, 1998: 45). Level of Education Percentage % No schooling 10.2 Primary 32.2 Some secondary 26.0 Less than matric & certif/dip 1.9 Matric only 10.8 Matric & certif/dip/other 3.6 Matric & degree 1.3 /NA 13.9 TABLE 15: LITERACY LEVELS FOR THE SALDANHA MUNICIPAL AREA SOURCE: OCTAGONAL DEVELOPMENT (2002:26)

18 URBAN DYNAMICS WESTERN CAPE 84 11% 4% 1% 14% 10% 2% 32% 26% No schooling Primary Some secondary Less than matric & certif/dip Matric only Matric & certif/dip/other Matric & degree /NA FIGURE 28: LITERACY LEVELS FOR THE SALDANHA BAY MUNICIPAL AREA SOURCE: SA STATISTICAL SERVICES 1996 CENSUS According to this data the literacy levels for the study area are poor. Of the population in the study area 10% have no schooling whatsoever, while 32% of the population has only primary education. Only 11% of the population has a matric qualification and only 5% of the population have received tertiary education. This shows that urgent attention must be given to the education sector within the study area.