Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece

Transcription

1 Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

2 Application to the city of Thessaloniki New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT) Seismic hazard Geotechnical zonation Seismic risk losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric power network) Transportation accessibility assessment (METU) Shelter demand assessment (KIT) Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction with electric power network) (AUTH) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

3 Seismicity - Tectonics Geographical distribution of earthquake events with M 4.0 Tectonics SHARE ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

4 Seismic zones 22 0'0"E 23 0'0"E 24 0'0"E 25 0'0"E 26 0'0"E SHARE '0"N 42 0'0"N MKAS212 MKAS389 GRAS '0"N 41 0'0"N GRAS388 GRAS '0"N 40 0'0"N SYNER-G application 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

5 22 40'0"E Geotechnical classification according to EC '0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 44'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N Geotechnical classification (EC8) 40 36'0"N 40 36'0"N 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N A B C 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N 22 40'0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 30'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 30'0"N '0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 42'0"N '0"N '0"N Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004) 40 36'0"N '0"N None 0: None Moderate 3: 40 32'0"N High 5: Very High 40 30'0"N '0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

6 Sub-City Districts European Urban Audit (Eurostat) 20 Sub Districts ID SCD name Population 0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ St.George-Rotonda University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower PAOK-Malakopi Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) Athinon Analipsi-Dermatologiko Nea Paralia-Municipal Library Railway Station-Xirokrini Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi Charilaou-Exohes Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau School for the blind-sailing Club Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari Ippokratio Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

7 Building Stock Study area buildings blocks (study area): 2,893 buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry) inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city) Number of buildings ntotal > ,000 2,000 Meters 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

8 Building stock Average Losses (Deaths) 10 Results (10,000 runs) 0 BDG-deaths BDG (deaths % of total pop.) BDG-deaths x deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002) 0.255x10-03 x = 201 deaths BDG-deaths moving average x x mean 1.2 mean +/- std # runs BDG-deaths λ (BDG-deaths) BDG-deaths x10-05 Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance Deaths BDG-deaths (% of total pop.) x = 4 deaths (population) # runs ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 # runs 9 x 10-3

9 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Collapses Yield 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

10 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Deaths Injured 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

11 Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Displaced people (good weather) Displaced people (bad weather) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

12 Application to RDN of Thessaloniki Bridges/Overpass: Single span (non-monolithic): 15 Multiple spans: 44 Roads (236 km) Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

13 Network connectivity: Performance Indicators Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs Bridge/road failure Blocked by buildings Blocked by overpass bridges 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

14 Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity Ring road Interchange K17 Ring road Interchange K18 Interchange (Monastiriou) Interchange with railway Road to airport 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

15 Road Network Risk Curve Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance (λ) Interaction with BDG no interaction with BDG 20% 33% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

16 Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki Features: - 21 pumps - 11 tanks - pipes ~280 km demand nodes 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

17 Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

18 Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance (λ) interaction no interaction System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL 1% 1.8% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

19 Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August

20 Shelter Needs Model Shelter Needs Index (SNI) 0, low 0, , , , high 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August