Russia s Policy in Syria and the Middle East: Determination, Delight, and Disappointment

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1 IT DOES NOT Ru a ' Po l c yns y r a MATa T E R H O W nd h em dd l ee a : SLDO W Y OU G O e e rm n a on,d e l gh,and LNGASYOUDON 'TSTOP M D appo n m en CAPpape rno.2 12,Janua r y20 19 " I lam nru a,ru a nhe M dd leea " In a ve

2 Rua Polcy n Syra and he Mddle Ea: Deermnaon, Delgh, and Dapponmen The Inave Ilam n Rua, Rua n he Ilamc World generouly funded by he Henry Luce Foundaon

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Par I. Rua Engagemen Sraege n he Mddle Ea Nkola K. Gvodev Ruan Sraegc Goal n he Mddle Ea..p. 4 Ekaerna Sepanova Regonalzaon a he Key Trend of Rua Polcy on Syra and n he Mddle Ea.p. 8 Mark N. Kaz No Geng Any Eaer: Pun Mddle Ea Balancng Ac p. 13 Anna Borhchevkaya Rua n he Mddle Ea: I There an Endgame?...p. 16 Par II. Rua Mlary Involvemen n Syra and Impac Mchael Kofman Ruan Comba Operaon n Syra and Ther Impac on he Force..p. 23 Greg Smon Rua n he Mddle Ea: (Re)Emergence of a New Geopolcal Shaer Bel?...p. 28 Anono Guozz Pun' Maerpece: Rua' Mlary and Dplomac Role n Syra hrough Syran and Iranan Eye..p. 36 Marya Y. Omelcheva Rua n Syra: Rehapng he Global Order or Fghng Terrorm?...p. 40 Igor Delanoë How can Mocow Suppor Syra Reconrucon?...p Cenral Aa Program 2

4 Regonalzaon a he Key Trend of Rua Polcy on Syra and n he Mddle Ea Ekaerna Sepanova IMEMO, Mocow Ekaerna Sepanova head he Peace and Conflc Sude Un and a lead reearcher a he Naonal Reearch Inue of he World Economy & Inernaonal Relaon (IMEMO), Mocow. She alo a Ruan Academy of Scence (RAS) Profeor. Her reearch and publcaon focu on nurgence and errorm, armed conflc and peace-buldng, exrem deologe, radcalzaon, volen nework, human ecury, and he polcal economy of conflc. Her book nclude Terrorm n Aymmercal Conflc: Ideologcal and Srucural Apec (Oxford Unvery Pre, 2008). Her eded volume nclude Humanaran Challenge, Humanaran Suppor and Human Proecon n Armed Conflc (IMEMO, 2018), Addreng Terrorm, Volen Exremm and Radcalzaon: Perpecve from Rua and he Uned Sae (IMEMO, 2017), and Terrorm: Paern of Inernaonalzaon (Sage, 2009). She erve on he edoral board of he journal Terrorm and Polcal Volence, Global Reponbly o Proec, and Global Governance, and ed he journal Pahway o Peace and Secury. ***** The upgrade of Rua role n Syra a a reul of mlary campagn nce 2015 ha helped brng Rua back o he Mddle Ea. Whle few now doub ha Rua n he regon o ay, he man queon n wha form and o wha exen. The mlary capacy Rua ha demonraed n Syra ha no been mached eher by overall leverage and ambon n he Mddle Ea or by lmed economc power. Thu, whle mlary engagemen n Syra caalyzed a relave ncreae n Rua nfluence n he broader regon, no alone uffcen o explan. Raher, h qualave upgrade reuled from Rua evolvng ably o grap, accep, and adju o he key proce ha had ganed momenum by he lae 2010 and endemc o he regon he regonalzaon of polc and ecury n he Mddle Ea. Th rend manfe elf n he growng role of regonal power, facor, and dynamc. The focu of h paper on he broader rend of regonalzaon of Rua polcy n he Mddle Ea n he lae 2010; he benef and conran of h proce, a lluraed by conflc managemen n Syra; and mplcaon for he We. Regonalzaon The regonalzaon of Rua Mddle Ea polcy ha aken a lea a decade and a half o evolve. For Rua, ha been an ncremenal, gradual proce ha ha nvolved expandng range of regonal parner from ju a few a fr, o everal, hen o many, and laer o almo all regonal player, whle alo ryng o manan dance from nra-regonal rfe (a o-called mulvecor polcy). Th requred and depended on a hgh degree of pragmam, rejecon of any deologcal cheme, culural relavm, readne o rea regonal parner a equal, and elecve opporunm. Snce he md- o lae 2000, hee feaure have been renforced by anoher qualave hf n Rua approach, whch proceeded from he gradual ablzaon of domec conflc n Chechnya (acheved manly by relance on local radonal ehno- 8

5 confeonal Mulm acor, moly former rebel, a an mperfec repone ha wa neverhele uperor o rannaonal jhad). Th coure a home mulaed a hf from a harh an- Ilam ance abroad o a more nuanced approach o reform polcal Ilam, boh n and ou of governmen, n he Mddle Ea. Subequenly, furher evolved no a readne o elecvely reach ou o Ilam armed oppoon acor oher han rannaonal jhad, f h wa n he nere of conflc reoluon. Agan h background, Rua de-pckng and frm uppor for he Aad regme hroughou he cvl war (whch culmnaed n Mocow drec mlary engagemen from 2015) nally appeared o cu agan and poenally undermne Rua oherwe mul-vecor coure n he Mddle Ea. However, Ruan polcy on Syra evolved n uch a way a o mulae, raher han mpede, Mocow raegy of playng on all feld. In fac, he man dfference beween Rua pre-syra and po-syra balancng ac wh regonal acor ha now could do h wh more parner and a a more nfluenal player n he Mddle Ea. Back n 2015, he man drver of Rua mlary engagemen n Syra had lle o do wh he regon elf. Syra wa largely nrumenalzed o erve broader Ruan foregn polcy goal a a rump card n roubled relaon wh he We po-2014 and a a howcae of prevenon of regme change by force, epecally hrough poenal Weern nervenon (n he po-lbya conex), coupled wh ome degree of concern abou global an-errorm. Increang Rua regonal nfluence n he Mddle Ea wa no a prmary drver a ha me, bu raher more of a bonu f everyhng ele worked ou. In pracce, however, Rua engagemen n Syra, by pung an end o furher omalzaon of he counry and hfng he balance n favor of he cenral governmen, dd caalyze an upgrade of Rua andng acro he broader regon. Th n urn mulaed Mocow growng nere n he Mddle Ea per e. The regonalzaon of Rua Mddle Ea polcy connue o evolve n hree man drecon: (1) New ype and area of Rua regonal nfluence, epecally n he economc phere and n conflc managemen beyond Syra; (2) A qualave hf from a prmarly Weern-cenrc o a more regon-cenrc approach o he Mddle Ea a recen endency dnc from (and more raegcally gnfcan han) he mere dverfcaon of Rua regonal conac ha ha been gong on for many year; (3) Idenfcaon and more acve puru of Rua own nere n regonal parnerhp n he Mddle Ea omehng ha requre an acor o have a ceran wegh n he regon, whch Rua ha now acqured. Benef The regonalzaon of Rua approach o he Mddle Ea ha boh benef and nheren lmaon, boh of whch are well lluraed by he lae age of Rua engagemen n and beyond Syra n 2018 early In he Syran conex, he mo drec produc of regonalzaon ha been he Aana ceaefre/de-ecalaon proce co-brokered by Rua, Turkey, and Iran nce 2017 and whch nvolve boh he governmen and varou oppoon acor, ncludng non-jhad armed group. Inrangen a Mocow may be een n he We n he conex of Rua U.S./Rua We relaon, n he Mddle Eaern conex, Rua ha quckly learned he ar of comprome and flexbly wh regonal parner on Syra (epecally wh Turkey and Iran, bu alo wh Irael, Egyp, Saud Araba, Qaar, UAE, Iraq, ec.). Th approach ha proven relen o he perodc hock ha have aned relaon wh key regonal power over Syra, uch a Irael role n a Ruan mlary plane hoo-down durng a Syran repone o an Irael ar rad on Laaka n Sepember 2018 or an earler hoo-down of a Ruan bomber je by Turkey n November The reulng emporary freeze n blaeral 9

6 relaon dd no, however, preven Rua and Turkey from launchng he Aana forma lghly more han a year laer. By lae 2018, he wo were workng ogeher on he uaon n he large remanng concenraon of a mx of more moderae Ilam acor, moly alled wh Turkey, and jhad force n Syra norhweern Idlb provnce. In anoher gn of flexbly, Rua made Damacu popone a major mlary offenve n Idlb o accommodae Turkh nere. Turkh Preden Erdogan remark a he November 2018 celebraon of compleon of he offhore par of he TurkSream ga ppelne from Rua o Turkey abou blaeral relaon havng already been hrough all knd of e could equally apply o Rua relaon over Syra wh boh Tehran and Tel Avv. I alo apple, ane facum, o a new e of he Aana forma relence poed by he regonal mplcaon of Preden Trump announcemen on December 19, 2018 of a U.S. whdrawal from Syra. Even f low or ncomplee, he whdrawal brng an end o he U.S. buffer beween Turkh and Kurdh force n norhern Syra. Th ha led Turkey o conemplae a major offenve agan he Syran Kurd man mlary force (People Proecon Un) and even akng over from he US by layng clam o area o he ea of he Euphrae. However, h alo he cae when he very complexy of he regonal/local e-up elf balance and conran any regonal akeholder, uch a Turkey. The deparure of he U.S. force, who had been he Syran Kurd key ally on he ground, ha acually puhed he laer cloer o Damacu. Boh Egyp and Rua and ready o medae her alk wh he Syran governmen and, f needed, erve a guaranor of he reul (Rua can poenally even medae beween Damacu, he Syran Kurd, and Turkey elf). Th would mply progre oward nra-syran elemen. In parallel, he advance of al-qaeda-lnked Haya Tahrr ah-sham n Idlb n early 2019, a he expene of he more moderae armed Ilam, ha produced conoldaon of jhad arge n he provnce, provdng Damacu wh a perfec excue o fnally rke agan nernaonally recognzed error. I alo allow Mocow o ue uppor for uch an offenve a mely leverage over Ankara, epecally n vew of he poenal ma nflow of refugee from Idlb o Turkey, hould he laer rae ambon oo hgh n Kurdh-populaed area and o he ea of he Euphrae upon he U.S. deparure. Trump decon o whdraw U.S. pecal force from Syra may have been urprng, bu encapulaed a longer, gradual declne of he U.S. role or nere n Syra. However, even pror o ha, no ae, ncludng he Uned Sae, or group of ae could pull he plug on Aana (ung he word of he U.S. pecal envoy on Syra, Ambaador Jame F. Jeffrey). Wha dnguhed he Aana forma a a produc of a horough regonalzaon wa ha wa beyond U.S. or oher exernal conrol from he ar and ha nohng erou, beyond or a he UN, ha been able o be mouned on he Syran ue whou Rua, Turkey, and Iran ever nce. Even f here a lack of progre on he Syran Conuonal commee or he broader UN rack, Aana wll per for a long a needed, wh an expanded range of regonal oberver, o help or ou emergng ue among he broker and pare on he ground (a need renforced by mplcaon of he U.S. deparure from Syra norhea), enure and mprove coordnaon, complee he deecalaon zone expermen, ec. The benef of regonalzaon of Rua polcy n he broader Mddle Ea conex can be lluraed by he fac ha of all he grea power, Rua ha ha he be relaon wh Turkey depe upporng oppoe de n he Syran cvl war. Rua alo eadly connue wh mon mpoble: mananng good relaon wh boh Iran and Irael a wo conan of Rua Mddle Ea polcy. I ha upgraded oureach o mo Gulf ae and ha developed ome of he be relaonhp ever wh Egyp under Preden al-s. Rua no a lead medaor on Lbya or Yemen, bu n demand a a medaor by key local pare and ha managed o carve a dplomac nche for elf n boh cae. I alo modely acve on he Irael- Palenan cae and mprove workng relaon wh Iraq and Lebanon. La bu no lea, for 10

7 he fr me n decade, Rua e o capalze on new dplomac and mlary nfluence o mprove economc propec n he Mddle Ea. Lmaon On he polcal and ecury de, regonalzaon can produce a more echncal Aana ceaefre/de-ecalaon proce, bu no uffcen o produce Geneva,.e. a ubanve, longerm, and broadly nernaonally recognzed UN-level oluon o he Syra problem. Whle relavely effecve, he Aana proce ha nheren lmaon, a wa mean o help mprove bac ecury condon and prepare echncal ground for Geneva, no o addre he key ubanve ue of he Syran polcal elemen. All oher negoang rack and nave, uch a he Mocow-ponored Soch Congre n January 2018 a an ncomplee Track 2 or he Ianbul umm on Syra ha brough ogeher Rua, Turkey, Germany, and France n Ocober 2018, have largely been acve underaken o omewha fll he vod n he meanme a he Geneva proce umble. Cooperaon wh regonal Aana parner ha alo co Rua dearly on he way o Geneva. Obacle o lnkng he Aana proce o he UN alk came no only from he Syran oppoon or her regonal or Weern ponor, bu alo from nde he Aana forma. On he formaon of he Conuonal commee, relucance o accep he UN-compoed par of he commee member l came from Damacu and Tehran. On he Kurdh ue, Turkey ha reman fercely oppoed o havng he large Syran Kurdh facon jon he negoaon. Rua, for par, ha no nenon of polng and canno afford o pol relaon wh wo man regonal parner, Iran and Turkey, by radcally nenfyng polcal preure on any of hem regardng Syra. Thu far, however, Rua ha appeared o be able o lve wh hee regonal lmaon, whch ake a rule of he game, a a naural progreon of dfferen and ofen conflcng regonal power nere and dynamc. Th approach alo grealy faclaed by Rua lack of val nere n h regon (a well a n any oher regon oude po-sove Eaern Europe/Euraa). In he meanme, Mocow wll connue o earch for a polcal oluon on Syra ha accepable no only o Damacu, bu alo nernaonally, аnd recognzed boh a he UN level and acro he broader Mddle Ea. Wha ofen ecape nernaonal oberver ha, n conra o he regon republcan rongmen (al-aad n Syra, al-s n Egyp, or Hafar n Lbya), Mocow generally ready o accep and even back more repreenave, ncluve, and pluralc yem n any of he regon conflc zone. I keep workng on own ubanve npu baed on UNSC Reoluon 2254, uggeed own draf of he new conuon (offerng ome major revon raher han comec amendmen o he 2012 conuon), and open o he dea of a unary decenralzed yem (ofen raed by oppoon member durng her meeng wh Ruan dploma). Agan h background, whle he zgzag of he Trump admnraon errac and nconen Syra polcy (from annual demonrave ar rke o an abrup decon o whdraw U.S. force) canno crcally aler he manream coure of even on he ground, Wahngon lack of coherence and raegc von on Syra a major problem when come o he earch for a UN-level polcal oluon. In hor, progre n Geneva ll requre ome form of acve and conrucve U.S. engagemen. On he economc reconrucon de, Rua elf can only conrbue a very mall hare of he emaed US$ bllon requred for Syra reconrucon whn he nex year (no o menon ha po-conflc reconrucon and developmen beyond own errory ha generally no been Rua rong pon). Bu a a lead mlary and dplomac acor on Syra, Rua now co-own he problem and canno mply dengage from po-conflc reconrucon 11

8 whou long par of he repuaonal capal ganed hrough engagemen. Whle par of he requred ad may come from he Gulf power (wh ome, uch a he UAE and Bahran, lowly warmng up o Damacu) and nformal nere from prvae md-ze European compane alo on he re, he cale of he problem requre broader nernaonalzaon of Syra poconflc reconrucon anoher reaon why Rua ha a veed nere n pung he UN-level Geneva alk on rack. In um, whle Syra wa a caaly n brngng Rua back o he Mddle Ea, Rua aypcally hgh-profle role on Syra ha been more of an ouler, n erm of level, cale and depckng, and unlkely o be replcaed elewhere n he regon. A he regonal level, Rua wll connue o purue regonalzaon and develop and balance plehora of regonal parnerhp wh: (1) Some upgrade of role n conflc managemen elewhere n he regon (n Lbya, Yemen, and, o ome exen, he Irael-Palenan conex); (2) Mode, bu growng economc role lowly approachng ha of a md-ze acor; (3) Secury role lmed o enurng he mnmal preence n he regon ha requred a a back-up o Ruan dplomac and economc acvy, wh he more pecfc funcon of a ecury guaranor n Syra. Implcaon for he We Wha doe a combnaon of vble bu lmed ncreae n Rua nfluence n he Mddle Ea wh growng regonalzaon of Mddle Ea polcy mply for he We? On he one hand, he gnfcan and relavely balanced regonalzaon of Rua approach o he Mddle Ea ha become one of Mocow few comparave advanage n he regon and omehng n whch fare beer han he We. The regonalzaon of Rua polcy ha been a proce profound and genune enough o enure ha h polcy no longer manly a funcon of relaon wh he We. Regardle of wha he Uned Sae and/or European alle wan or do, ndvdually or collecvely, Rua wll keep ryng o ge he mo ou of lmed bu upgraded nfluence, pragmac approach, and dverfed oureach o regonal parner. The lae vvd lluraon, n he Syran conex, ha been he lmed drec mpac on Rua manream coure even of Preden Trump December 2018 decon o whdraw mlarly from Syra. I gnfcance for Rua ha no been o much per e or n he blaeral US- Rua conex a n effec on he andng and polce of Mocow man regonal parner on Syra, epecally Turkey (bu alo Iran and, o an exen, Iraq, Irael, Egyp, and he Gulf ae). On he oher hand, he good new ha a combnaon of (a) profound regonalzaon and broad dverfcaon of Rua Mddle Ea polcy wh (b) relavely lmed reource and pragmac ambon defe and exclude a reurn o any grand Cold War-yle hegemonc or revon polce and approache. I alo doe no leave much, f any, poenal for drec confronaon beween Rua and he collecve We n he regon. A he role of he Uned Sae and oher Weern power n he Mddle Ea ha been gradually bu eadly n declne, no wh Rua ha he We real problem n he regon le. Inead, precely wh he dffculy of accepng and adapng o he growng regonalzaon of polc and ecury n he Mddle Ea. 12