The Naval State of Play in the Eastern Mediterranean: Seapower, Energy and Immigration Nexus

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1 The Naval State of Play in the Eastern Mediterranean: Seapower, Energy and Immigration Nexus Serhat Güvenç, PhD Kadir Has University and KUDENFOR

2 Cold War Sea Power Configuration Mediterranean during the The Cold War US 6th Fleet (since 1948) Soviet Fifth Escadra (since 1962) At the time of its collapse (1991), the Soviets possessed the largest navy ever assembled by any European power USS Franklin D. Roosevelt (CVA-42) with Soviet Kashin Class destroyer, Wikipedia.

3 Post-Cold War Sea Power Configuration Decline/Withdrawal of Superpowers Rise of Middle Powers/Regional Stakeholders Turkey Challenge of Collective Security The Balkan Wars in the 1990s

4 Turkish Seapower on Growth Trejactory A New Turkish Naval Base in the South

5 The Phantom Alliance Turkey and Israel To break out of isolation For Turkish security The Reliant Mermaid SAR exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean Including US Turkey Israel Egypt

6 S-300s to Cyprus: A precursor to Russian A2/AD (Anti- Access/Area Denial) Strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean

7 S-300s to Cyprus

8 The Phantom Alliance Helped Turkey rule the Eastern Mediterranean A new primus inter pares (until 2003) Proved effective in tackling threats to Turkish security A cure to the so-called 2 and ½ War contingency Against Syria in 1998

9 Challenge of Collective Security NATO in the Mediterranean STANAVFORMED (until 2005) The Balkan Wars Bosnian War Arms embargo enforcement Kosovo War (1999) largest Russian naval demostration since the end of the Cold War Only supply ships and an intel ship showed off, though. STANDING NATO MARITIME GROUP 2 Operation Active Endavour (Article 5 mission) After 9/11

10 9/11 NATO in the Mediterranean

11 First Decade of New Millenium The US invasion of Iraq 2003 Return of the US Navy The Lebonan War in 2006 New naval players emergence

12 LEBONAN 2006

13 NATO Active Endavour

14 Second Decade of the New Millenium The Mavi Marmara Incident (2010) End of Turkey-Israeli Naval Collaboration Beginning of Precious Loneliness for Turkey?

15 Second Decade of the New Millenium The Arab Spring (2011) Libya (Operation Unified Protector) Syria Naval congestion Combat Migration Surveillance

16 Syrian Conflict Return of Russian Navy into the Eastern Mediterranean Supply Support the Syrian Regime Assert Russian presence A2/AD Bubble

17 Migration Surveillance

18 Irregular Migration Failed or failing states in the neihgborhood EU - FRONTEX NATO involvement to tackle the refugee crisis The Aegean Mission unprecedented Best force generation initial enthusiasm to contribute Refugee flow stemmed but mission continues despite Turkish concerns Greece and Turkey among top contibutors to SNMG2 with three and two units respectively Migration Surveillance

19 New Stakes Securing energy at the source and in transportation Regional alliances Israel Greece Cyprus Egypt

20 The EEZ Internationally recognized government of Cyprus publicized its EEZ in 2003 Combined with Greece s EEZ claim in the Eastern Mediterranean Means a total 91 thousand square kilometers of EEZ denied to Turkey in Ankara s calculations New Stakes

21 Naval Stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Dramatic changes in the naval power hierarchy Mediterranean NATO s mare nostrum? Russia s return a blessing in disguise? a risk or threat? China (or PLAN) looms over the horizon Joint Russian-Chinese Naval Exercise in 2015 One belt, one road

22 Naval Stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean

23 Naval Stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean

24 Naval Stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Vice Admiral Nicolaos Tsounis, the Hellenic Navy Chief The Eastern Mediterranean and its approaches are the broader areas of national national interest while the Aegean and Hellenic seas provide our nation s strategic depth, In addition, the Hellenic Navy s presence on the broaders world s oceans can be required when national interests and commitment to allied solidarity dictate (USNI, Proceedings, March 2007) Greece is not only the Aegean. We also have a duty to safeguard our interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. (Kathimerini, 15 February 2017)

25 Naval Stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Turkey in The Mediterranean A Lone Wolf The Mediterranean Shield to show Ankara s determination to protect its and TRNC s maritime interests Russian naval presence A2/AD buble Israel remains a key player The Mavi Marmara incident Now training with the Greek Cypriot military as well» Noble Dinah Exercises 2017 Iran like scenario Potential role on US decision to release two Perry class frigates to Turkey

26 Conclusions Hard power is here to stay So is the Russian Navy New Cold War at Sea? How about China Energy security EU likely continue to shy away from the region Regional stakeholders remain important players Greece Turkey Israel Egypt End state in Syria and Iraq will affect the naval state of play