VTRA INTRODUCING COUNTING LINES and VTOSS 2010 AIS 2010 Comparison

Transcription

1 VTRA INTRODUCING COUNTING LINES and VTOSS 21 AIS 21 Comparison Presentation by: J. Rene van Dorp GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick FEBRUARY 6, 213

2 BY COURTESY OF MARINE EXCHANGE 25 MXPS VESSEL VISIT COUNTS Vessel Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 25 BULK CONTAINER GENERAL PASSENGER RO/RO ATB INCLUDED IN PETROL TANKER COUNTS VEHICLES PETROL TANKER NON-PETROL TANKER OTHER* MXPS VESSEL VISIT COUNTS Vessel Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 BULK CONTAINER GENERAL PASSENGER RO/RO ATB VEHICLES PETROL TANKER NON-PETROL TANKER OTHER* GWU VCU 213 2

3 BY COURTESY OF USCG 25 USCG VTS VESSEL TRANSIT COUNTS Vessel Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 25 TANKER FREIGTHER TUGTOW FERRY PUBLIC OTHER USCG VTS VESSEL TRANSIT COUNTS Vessel Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21 TANKER FREIGHTER TUGTOW FERRY OTHER FERRY EXCURSION CRUISE PUBLIC OTHER GWU VCU 213 3

4 25 VTRA STUDY TANKER TRAFFIC DENSITY 25 VTRA STUDY: Density generated from 158 Representative Routes For Tankers Only GWU VCU 213 4

5 21 VTRA STUDY PRELIMINARY TANKER TRAFFIC DENSITY VTRA STUDY: Density generated from 2,328 Route Segments For Tankers Only GWU VCU 212 5

6 25 VTRA STUDY BULK CARRIER TRAFFIC DENSITY 25 VTRA STUDY: Density generated from 47 Representative Routes For Bulk Carrier Routes Only GWU VCU 213 6

7 21 VTRA STUDY FEB 13 BULK CARRIER TRAFFIC DENSITY % of total has location misclassified 21 VTRA STUDY: Density generated from 6,343 Route Segments For Bulk Carrier GWU VCU 213 7

8 25 VTRA STUDY CONTAINER TRAFFIC DENSITY 25 VTRA STUDY: GWU VCU 213 8

9 21 VTRA STUDY PRELIM. CONTAINER TRAFFIC DENSITY VTRA STUDY: GWU VCU 213 9

10 CONTAINER UP BY FACTOR 3? WHAT IS GOING ON????? IMPOSSIBLE TO RECONCILE EXISTING DATA SOURCES WE NEED A NEW ONE! AIS CROSSING LINE DATA GWU VCU 213 1

11 ADDED COUNT LINE AT WSJF ENTRANCE GWU VCU

12 ADDED COUNT LINE AT GEORGIA STRAIT ENTRANCE GWU VCU

13 ADDED COUNT LINE AT PUGET SOUND ENTRANCE GWU VCU

14 AIS COLLECTED DATA FOR 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU

15 AIS COLLECTED DATA FOR 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU

16 AIS COLLECTED DATA FOR 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU

17 AIS COLLECTED DATA FOR 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU

18 AIS COLLECTED DATA FOR 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU

19 RECLASSIFICATION OF GWU/VCU SIM VESSEL TYPES TO ALLOW FOR COMPARISON OF VTOSS AIS 21 # VESSEL TYPE MASTER TYPE # VESSEL TYPE Master Type 1 BULKCARRIER Cargo 19 SUPPLYOFFSHORE Service 2 CHEMICALCARRIER Tanker 2 TUGTOWBARGE Tugtow 3 CONTAINERSHIP Cargo 21 UNKNOWN Service 4 DECKSHIPCARGO Cargo 22 USCOASTGUARD Service 5 FERRY Ferry 23 VEHICLECARRIER Cargo 6 FERRYNONLOCAL Passenger 24 YACHT Yacht 7 FISHINGFACTORY Fishing 25 ATB Tanker 8 FISHINGVESSEL Fishing 26 ITB Tanker 9 LIQGASCARRIER Tanker 27 OILBARGE Tugtow 1 NAVYVESSEL Cargo 28 TUGNOTOW TugTow 11 OILTANKER Tanker 29 BULKCARGOBARGE TugTow 12 OTHERSPECIALCARGO Cargo 3 CHEMICALBARGE TugTow 13 OTHERSPECIFICSERV Service 31 CONTAINERBARGE TugTow 14 PASSENGERSHIP Passenger 32 DERRICKBARGE TugTow 15 REFRIGERATEDCARGO Cargo 33 UNLADENBARGE TugTow 16 RESEARCHSHIP Service 34 LOG_BARGE TugTow 17 ROROCARGOSHIP Cargo 35 WOODCHIPBARGE TugTow 18 ROROCARGOCONTSHIP Cargo GWU VCU

20 GWU/VCU SIM COLLECTED DATA VTOSS 21 WSJF CROSSING LINE 21 G_STR CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type East Bound West Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total PUGET SOUND CROSSING LINE 21 Ship Type North Bound South Bound Grand Total Cargo Tanker Passenger Grand Total ENTERING/LEAVING VTRA 21 FLOW BOTH DIRECTONS 21 Ship Type ENTERING VTRA LEAVING VTRA DIFFERENCE % Ship Type WSJF TO G_STR G_STR TO WSJF DIFFERENCE % Cargo % Cargo % Tanker % Tanker % Passenger % Passenger % Grand Total % Grand Total % GWU VCU 213 2

21 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: WSJF EAST BOUND WSJF CROSSING LINE: EAST BOUND Cargo Tanker Passenger East Bound - VTRA 21 East Bound - AIS 21 GWU VCU

22 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: WSJF WEST BOUND WSJF CROSSING LINE: WEST BOUND Cargo Tanker Passenger West Bound VTRA 21 West Bound AIS 21 GWU VCU

23 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: G_STR NORTH BOUND G_STR CROSSING LINE: NORTH BOUND BULK CARRIER MANUAL ROUTE CLEANING NOT IN THIS RESULT??? 5 Cargo Tanker Passenger North Bound VTRA 21 North Bound AIS 21 GWU VCU

24 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: G_STR SOUTH BOUND G_STR CROSSING LINE: SOUTH BOUND Cargo Tanker Passenger South Bound VTRA 21 South Bound AIS 21 GWU VCU

25 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: PUGET S. NORTH BOUND PUGET S. CROSSING LINE: NORTH BOUND Cargo Tanker Passenger North Bound VTRA 21 North Bound AIS 21 GWU VCU

26 VTOSS 21 AIS 21 COMP: PUGET S. SOUTH BOUND PUGET S. CROSSING LINE: SOUTH BOUND Cargo Tanker Passenger South Bound VTRA 21 South Bound AIS 21 GWU VCU

27 AIS 21 VTRA 21 MONTH:Y BULK CARRIER COMPARISON Presentation by: J. Rene van Dorp GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick FEBRUARY 6, 212

28 VTRA 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - BULKCARRIER WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND BULK CARRIER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS AIS DATA - BULKCARRIER WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND GWU VCU

29 VTRA 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - BULKCARRIER G_STR CROSSINGS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND BULK CARRIER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS AIS DATA - BULKCARRIER G_STR CROSSINGS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND GWU VCU

30 VTRA 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - BULKCARRIER PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND BULK CARRIER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 BULKCARRIER COUNTS AIS DATA - BULKCARRIER PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND GWU VCU 213 3

31 RANKING OF CROSSINGS FOR 21 BULK CARRIER COMPARISON RANK CROSSING LINE VTOSS 21 AIS 21 1 WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 2 GEORGIA STRAIT 3 PUGET SOUND East B.: 1455 West B.: 1496 North B.: 19 South B.: 139 North B.: 3 South B.: 38 East B.: 1389 West B.: 1429 North B.: 124 South B.: 113 North B.: 36 South B.: 38 BULK CARRIER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES NOT EXACT DUE TO NAME VARIATIONS GWU VCU

32 AIS 21 VTRA 21 MONTH:Y CONTAINER COMPARISON Presentation by: J. Rene van Dorp GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick FEBRUARY 6, 212

33 VTRA 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS VTOSS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND CONTAINER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS AIS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND GWU VCU

34 21 VTOSS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP G_STR CROSSINGS VTRA 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND CONTAINER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS AIS AIS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP - G_STR CROSSINGS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND GWU VCU

35 VTRA 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS VTOSS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND CONTAINER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 CONTAINERSHIP COUNTS AIS DATA - CONTAINERSHIP PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND GWU VCU

36 RANKING OF CROSSINGS FOR 21 CONTAINER SHIP COMPARISON RANK CROSSING LINE VTOSS 21 AIS 21 1 WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 2 PUGET SOUND 3 GEORGIA STRAIT East B.: 155 West B.: 152 North B.: 19 South B.: 998 North B.: 44 South B.: 451 East B.: 157 West B.: 162 North B.: 111 South B.: 116 North B.: 628 South B.: 646 CONTAINER SHIP COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES NOT EXACT DUE TO NAME VARIATIONS GWU VCU

37 AIS 21 VTRA 21 MONTH:Y OIL TANKER COMPARISON Presentation by: J. Rene van Dorp GWU Personnel: Dr. J. Rene van Dorp VCU Personnel: Dr. Jason R. W. Merrick FEBRUARY 6, 212

38 VTRA 21 OILTANKER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - OILTANKER WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND OIL TANKER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 OILTANKER COUNTS AIS DATA - OILTANKER WSFJ CROSSINGS EAST BOUND WEST BOUND GWU VCU

39 VTRA 21 OILTANKER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - OILTANKER G_STR CROSSINGS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND OIL TANKER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 OILTANKER COUNTS AIS DATA - OILTANKER G_STR CROSSINGS SOUTH BOUND NORTH BOUND GWU VCU

40 VTRA 21 OILTANKER COUNTS VTOSS DATA - OILTANKER PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND OIL TANKER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES AIS 21 OILTANKER COUNTS AIS DATA - OILTANKER PS CROSSINGS NORTH BOUND SOUTH BOUND GWU VCU 213 4

41 RANKING OF CROSSINGS FOR 21 RANK OIL TANKER COMPARISON CROSSING LINE VTOSS 21 AIS 21 1 WEST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 2 PUGET SOUND 3 GEORGIA STRAIT East B.: 4 West B.: 389 North B.: 64 South B.: 6 North B.: 11 South B.: 66 East B.: 386 West B.: 383 North B.: 56 South B.: 56 North B.: 31 South B.: 29 OIL TANKER COMPARISON BY MATCHING VTOSS TO AIS VESSEL NAMES NOT EXACT DUE TO NAME VARIATIONS GWU VCU

42 CONCLUSIONS/FINDINGS 1 of 2 1. GWU/VCU sim data using VTOSS 21 and AIS 21 data reconcile well. 2. We have, however, not explained the factor 3 increase in container density going from GWU/VCU sim data using VTOSS 25 to GWU/VCU sim data using VTOSS 21 data. 3. We could further investigate the factor 3 increase in container density if AIS 25 Crossing Line data was available for reconciliation. UNFORTUNATELY, AIS CROSSING LINE DATA FOR 25 WAS AND IS NOT AVAILABLE! 4. Moving forward the VTOSS 21 data shall be used to develop a base case scenario for comparison to future and risk mitigation scenarios. Hence, such comparisons are not affected by this observed difference between the VTOSS 25 and VTOSS 21 data. GWU VCU

43 CONCLUSIONS/FINDINGS 2 of 2 5. We do not believe container ship traffic went up by a factor 3 in light of Marine Exchange and USCG data consulted for 25 and When a vessel makes multiple visits to the same Vessel Traffic Service VTS, its name can be entered differently across different trips. This is compounded by the same vessel visiting different VTS centers in the VTOSS data set we use. 7. Moreover, the same vessel can be classified as different types across different trips and different VTS centers within the VTOSS data. For instance, the types oil tanker and chemical carrier are used for the same vessels and the types bulk carrier, container ship, and other cargo vessel type are used for the same vessel. We hypothesize that findings 6 and 7 provide the root argument for explaining the observed factor 3. GWU VCU

44 RECALL: RECLASSIFICATION OF GWU/VCU SIM VESSEL TYPES TO ALLOW FOR COMPARISON OF VTOSS AIS 21 # VESSEL TYPE MASTER TYPE # VESSEL TYPE Master Type 1 BULKCARRIER Cargo 19 SUPPLYOFFSHORE Service 2 CHEMICALCARRIER Tanker 2 TUGTOWBARGE Tugtow 3 CONTAINERSHIP Cargo 21 UNKNOWN Service 4 DECKSHIPCARGO Cargo 22 USCOASTGUARD Service 5 FERRY Ferry 23 VEHICLECARRIER Cargo 6 FERRYNONLOCAL Passenger 24 YACHT Yacht 7 FISHINGFACTORY Fishing 25 ATB Tanker 8 FISHINGVESSEL Fishing 26 ITB Tanker 9 LIQGASCARRIER Tanker 27 OILBARGE Tugtow 1 NAVYVESSEL Cargo 28 TUGNOTOW TugTow 11 OILTANKER Tanker 29 BULKCARGOBARGE TugTow 12 OTHERSPECIALCARGO Cargo 3 CHEMICALBARGE TugTow 13 OTHERSPECIFICSERV Service 31 CONTAINERBARGE TugTow 14 PASSENGERSHIP Passenger 32 DERRICKBARGE TugTow 15 REFRIGERATEDCARGO Cargo 33 UNLADENBARGE TugTow 16 RESEARCHSHIP Service 34 LOG_BARGE TugTow 17 ROROCARGOSHIP Cargo 35 WOODCHIPBARGE TugTow 18 ROROCARGOCONTSHIP Cargo GWU VCU

45 VTOSS GWU/VCU SIM COLLECTED CROSSING LINE COUNTS BY MASTER TYPE Table: 25 VTOSS GWU/VCU SIM VESSEL COUNTS OF CROSSING WSJF, G_STR, PS COUNT LINES Master Type TOT WSJF W-E TOT WSJF E-W TOT G_STR N-S TOT G_STR S-N TOT PS N-S TOT PS S-N Cargo Tanker TugTow Subtotal % % % % % % Table: 21 GWU/VCU VESSEL COUNTS OF CROSSING WSJF, G_STR, PS COUNT LINES Master Type TOT WSJF W-E TOT WSJF E-W TOT G_STR N-S TOT G_STR S-N TOT PS N-S TOT PS S-N Cargo Tanker TugTow Subtotal % % % % % % GWU VCU

46 VTOSS GWU/VCU SIM COLLECTED CROSSING LINE % FROM 25 BY MASTER TYPE Table: 25 VTOSS GWU/VCU SIM VESSEL % FROM 25 OF CROSSING WSJF, G_STR, PS COUNT LINES Master Type TOT WSJF W-E TOT WSJF E-W TOT G_STR N-S TOT G_STR S-N TOT PS N-S TOT PS S-N Cargo 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Tanker 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% TugTow 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Subtotal 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Table: 21 GWU/VCU VESSEL % FROM 25 OF CROSSING WSJF, G_STR, PS COUNT LINES Master Type TOT WSJF W-E TOT WSJF E-W TOT G_STR N-S TOT G_STR S-N TOT PS N-S TOT PS S-N Cargo 145% 159% 127% 122% 194% 196% Tanker 87% 98% 171% 148% 118% 116% TugTow 458% 294% 174% 162% 87% 129% Subtotal 139% 151% 144% 136% 122% 154% GWU VCU