Canadian Natural Gas Daily OUTLOOK
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1 NYMEX: US$2.173 Up 1.5 cents Market News, 2016 Intra-AB: US$1.16 Up 30 cents The NYMEX June contract remained stable on Wednesday, going up 1.5 cents to settle at $2.173/MMBtu. The market is expecting a lower than average storage injection for the week ending May 6. Cash prices were down slightly, with the majority of spots posting losses of less than 5 cents. Intra-AB (AECO-C) continued to rebound from the massive losses earlier this week, jumping 30 cents to settle at $1.158/MMBtu. Intra-Alberta (NGX) Daily Prices - USD/MMBtu NYMEX Natural Gas Near-Month USD/MMBtu NGX Intra-Alberta for NYMEX Near-Month - USD/MMBtu Huntingdon/Sumas Daily Prices - USD/MMBtu NYMEX-May 11 Close Contract Month (US$/mmbtu) Change Jun-16 $ Jul-16 $ Aug-16 $ Sep-16 $ Oct-16 $ Nov-16 $ Dec-16 $ Jan-17 $ Feb-17 $ Mar-17 $ Apr-17 $ May-17 $ NGX Intra-Alberta - USD/MMBtu 11-May 10-May 9-May 6-May 5-May -$ $ $ $ $1.030 Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) 11-May 10-May 9-May 6-May 5-May $ $ $ $ $ Source: Bank of Canada Date Crude Oil Daily (USD/bbl) NYMEX Near Month WTI Spot Price 11-May $46.23 $46.23 $ May $44.66 $44.66 $ May $43.44 $43.44 $ May $44.66 $44.66 $ May $44.32 $43.77 $ May $43.78 $43.78 $47.18 Alberta Power Prices ($/MWh) 11-May $ May $ May $ May $ May $ May $14.46 Source: Alberta Energy System Operator, Daily Average NYMEX 1 Yr Fwd Contract Month Intra-AB Forward Strip May 11 C$/GJ US$/ mmbtu Change US$/mmbtu Jun-16 $1.343 $1.102 $0.028 Jul-16 $1.517 $1.245 $0.019 Aug-16 $1.656 $1.360 $0.019 Sep-16 $1.781 $1.462 $0.019 Oct-16 $1.962 $1.611 $0.012 Nov-16 $2.255 $1.851 $0.004 Dec-16 $2.566 $2.106 $0.004 Jan-17 $2.658 $2.182 $0.001 Feb-17 $2.663 $ $0.001 Mar-17 $2.602 $ $0.008 Apr-17 $2.402 $ $0.008 May-17 $2.373 $ $0.009 NGX Summary (USD/MMBtu) Intra-AB Same Day Next Day 11-May $1.158 $ May $0.854 $0.858
2 Page 2 of 6 U.S. Storage Data 29-Apr Apr-16 Diff. 29-Apr Apr-16 Diff. Eastern U.S. South Central U.S. Working Gas Working Gas Year Ago Year Ago Five Year Avg Five Year Avg % of Five Year Avg % 129.8% -0.5% % of Five Year Avg % 160.1% -1.7% Midwestern U.S. Salt Working Gas Year Ago Year Ago Five Year Avg Five Year Avg Nonsalt % of Five Year Avg % 158.3% -2.8% Year Ago Mountain U.S. Five Year Avg Working Gas Year Ago Five Year Avg % of Five Year Avg % 138.4% 0.5% Pacific U.S. Total Lower 48 Working Gas Working Gas Year Ago Year Ago Five Year Avg Five Year Avg % of Five Year Avg % 126.5% -0.8% % of Five Year Avg % 148.2% -1.5% Rigs Drilling in Western Canada Province 10-May 3-May 26-Apr 19-Apr AB SK BC NWT MB W. Canada Source: Canadian Association of Drilling Contractors Next Season Next Year Winter Next Year Summer Following Year Winter Next Gas Year Swap Price Indicators-May 11 NYMEX Intra- AB AECO Sumas Malin Chicago Rockies Transco Z6 Jun-16 to Oct Nov-16 to Mar Apr-17 to Oct Nov-17 to Mar Nov-16 to Oct All prices are USD/MMBtu except Intra-Alberta (AB) which is CAD/GJ Source: CIBC World Markets. Please note- prices are for indication purposes only. For live quotes contact CIBC, Calgary, (403) , Calvin Johnson Vancouver 20, 23, 20, 16 68, 73, 68, 61 Huntingdon/Sumas $1.25 Spokane 25, 26, 23, 19 Malin Westcoast St 2 $0.85 San Francisco 18, 18, 18, 18 $ , 64, 64, 65 Los Angeles 24, 23, 22, 23 76, 74, 71, 73 77, 78, 74, 66 PGE City-Gate $2.12 Intra-Alberta Topock $1.97 $1.16 Calgary 6, 10, 13, 16 43, 50, 55, 61 Rockies $1.87 San Juan $1.88 Permian Sources: Temperatures are forecasted highs from Environment Canada and US National Weather Service. Prices are from Four Day Temperature Forecast: (today, tomorrow, etc) Prices: USD/MMBtu Celsius, Fahrenheit Emerson Minneapolis 17, 11, 11, 15 Detroit 62, 52, 52, 59 25, 20, 12, 12 $1.89 $1.94 Dallas 27, 29, 25, 25 80, 84, 77, 77 77, 68, 54, 53 Chicago 22, 18, 11, 13 72, 65, 51, 56 $2.01 Henry Hub $2.01 Toronto 23, 18, 8, 7 73, 64, 46, 45 Dawn $2.14 Montreal 27, 23, 17, 11 81, 73, 63, 52 Niagara $1.63 Tetco M3 $1.49 New York 23, 18, 22, 14 73, 65, 72, 57 Transco Z-6 $1.55
3 Intra-Alberta Page 3 of 6 NGX Same Day, Next Day and Near Month prices for: Alberta Border Westcoast ATCO North Station 2 Dawn Parkway Date Same Same Next Next Next Next Near Next Near Next Near Next Near Next Near Day Day Day Day Day Day Month Day Month Day Month Day Month Day Month C$/GJ US$/M C$/GJ US$/M C$/GJ US$/M US$/M C$/GJ C$/GJ C$/GJ C$/GJ US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M 11-May $1.41 $1.16 $1.30 $1.07 $1.41 $1.16 $1.25 $1.04 $1.10 $2.14 $2.26 $2.15 $ May $1.05 $0.85 $1.05 $0.86 $1.19 $0.97 $1.22 $1.00 $1.11 $2.19 $2.24 $2.20 $ May $0.50 $0.41 $0.73 $0.59 $0.87 $0.71 $1.16 $0.66 $0.99 $2.16 $2.21 $2.17 $ May $0.55 $0.45 $0.58 $0.47 $0.96 $0.78 $ May $0.99 $0.81 $0.95 $0.78 $0.96 $0.78 $ May $0.98 $0.80 $0.82 $0.67 $0.96 $0.78 $1.20 $0.82 $1.05 $2.18 $2.23 $2.19 $ May $1.22 $1.00 $1.23 $1.01 $1.37 $1.12 $1.19 $1.22 $1.04 $2.25 $2.21 $2.26 $2.21 May 11 Date Niagara Iroquois Chippawa Emerson *TEP Malin Rct. Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth Next Day Near Mth US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M US$/M C$/GJ C$/GJ US$/M US$/M C$/GJ C$/GJ 11-May $1.63 $1.70 $2.30 $2.27 $1.63 $1.70 $1.94 $1.97 $1.26 $1.38 $1.94 $2.05 $ May $1.68 $1.68 $2.35 $2.26 $1.68 $1.68 $1.94 $1.96 $1.04 $1.35 $1.96 $2.04 $ May $1.65 $1.65 $2.32 $2.22 $1.65 $1.65 $1.91 $1.90 $0.72 $1.28 $1.71 $1.99 $ May 7-May 6-May $1.67 $1.67 $2.34 $2.25 $1.67 $1.67 $1.93 $1.96 $0.81 $1.32 $1.88 $1.99 $ May $1.74 $1.65 $2.41 $2.23 $1.74 $1.65 $2.00 $1.94 $1.22 $1.31 $1.93 $1.96 $2.52 Source: NGX, a wholly owned subsidiary of TSX Group Inc. *Transgas Energy Pool Daily Prices at Major Canadian and U.S. Pricing Points-USD/MMBtu PG&E San NGPL Date Stanfield Malin Rockies Topock City-Gate Juan Permian Midcont Chicago Niagara Emerson Dawn TCO IPP Pool Henry Hub Tetco M 3 Dracut Transco Z-6 WC St 2 C$/GJ WC St 2 Sumas Delivery 11-May $1.80 $1.94 $1.87 $1.97 $2.12 $1.88 $1.89 $1.90 $2.01 $1.63 $1.94 $2.14 $1.85 $2.01 $1.49 N/A $1.55 $1.04 $0.85 $1.25 $ May $1.81 $1.96 $1.91 $1.98 $2.17 $1.89 $1.90 $1.94 $2.02 $1.68 $1.94 $2.19 $1.87 $2.04 $1.49 N/A $1.61 $1.00 $0.82 $1.53 $ May $1.80 $1.96 $1.91 $1.97 $2.12 $1.88 $1.90 $1.90 $1.96 $1.65 $1.91 $2.16 $1.82 $1.97 $1.58 N/A $1.74 $0.66 $0.54 $1.40 $ May $1.61 $1.71 $1.68 $1.74 $1.96 $1.66 $1.64 $1.77 $1.88 $1.67 $1.93 $2.18 $1.74 $1.84 $1.41 N/A $1.43 $0.82 $0.67 $1.40 $ May $1.74 $1.93 $1.90 $1.98 $2.11 $1.89 $1.89 $1.90 $2.01 $1.74 $2.00 $2.25 $1.89 $2.05 $1.52 N/A $1.83 $1.22 $1.00 $1.41 $ May $1.82 $1.96 $1.92 $1.99 $2.13 $1.93 $1.93 $1.97 $2.08 $1.74 $2.00 $2.25 $1.88 $2.00 $1.86 N/A $1.99 $1.33 $1.09 $1.35 $ May $1.80 $1.91 $1.87 $1.96 $2.05 $1.87 $1.89 $1.93 $2.06 $1.65 $1.91 $2.16 $1.82 $1.92 $1.74 N/A $1.87 $1.16 $0.96 $1.40 $2.05 Source: Spot Price Differentials: (USD/MMBtu) Henry Hub - Intra-AB Same Day Chicago - Intra-AB Same Day
4 Page 4 of 6 Daily Prices at Major Canadian and U.S. Pricing Points $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 USD/MMBtu $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 $ May 4-May 5-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May Stanfield Malin Rockies Topock PG &E San Juan Permian NGPL Chicago Niagara Emerson Dawn TCO IPP Pool Tetco M3 Transco Z-6 WC Stn 2 Sumas WTI Near Month and Year Forward Prices USD/bbl Source: NYMEX Portland Natural Gas System Information Pittsburg Receipts Westbrook Receipts Dracut Deliveries Maritimes & Northeast US System Information Bailyville Receipt Bailyville Delivery Dracut Delivery Beverly Delivery Brunswick Receipt Beverly Receipt TCPL Mainline System Information (10^9 btu) 11-May 10-May 9-May 8-May 7-May Receipts Empress Saskatchewan Suffield Total West Rec SS Marie Rec./GLGT St Clair Rec./GLGT Niagra Rec Union Trans. Rec GL & Union Rec Deliveries (Canadian) Empress Deliveries Saskatchewan Dist Manitoba Dist Ontario Dist Quebec Dist Deliveries (U.S. s) Emerson/Viking Emerson/GLGT Spruce Niagara Chippawa Iroquois Cornwall St Clair Napierville Philipsburg East Hereford Total Deliveries Net GLGT Total Rec
5 Receipts: (10^9btus) 10-May 9-May 8-May 7-May 6-May 5-May Receipts Saskatchewan Alberta Net Storage Chg Operational Adj Total Receipts Deliveries Westcoast System Information (mmcf) 11-May 10-May 9-May 8-May 7-May 6-May Fort Nelson P/L FSJ P/L Pine River Plant Terasen S. Xing Williams/Hunt. Back Total Receipts Deliveries: Terasen Interior Terasen L. Mainland PNG Other Younger NGL McMahon CoGen Boundary Gordondale McMahon Kingsvale TCPL Gordondale Huntingdon Fuel Total Deliveries Linepack: Actual Target Next Day Linepack Tolerance-PLUS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Tolerance-MINUS 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% TransGas System Information Saskatchewan Del Total Deliveries Storage Level Linepack Tolerance % - Draft Tolerance % - Pack TCPL-BC Pipeline Information (10^9btus) 12-May 11-May 10-May 9-May 8-May Kingsgate Delivery Page 5 of 6 Pipelines Linepack: 12-May 11-May 10-May 9-May 8-May 7-May Actual Linepack Target Linepack Draft/Pack Rate (1) Tolerance-PLUS 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Tolerance-MINUS 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Deliveries: TCPL Alberta System Information (mmcf) Empress McNeill ABC-Coleman Gordondale Groundbirch East Other Border Points Intra-Provincial Total Receipts: Total Deliveries Field Receipts: Total SD Account Total OBA Account Net Storage Chg (2): System Information (10^9 btus) 11-May 10-May 9-May 8-May 7-May 6-May B.C. Receipts AB & SK Receipts Total Cdn Rec Bantry (BANTR) U.S. Deliveries ANR Aux Sable Peoples Guardian PL NGPL Hankinson (VeraSun) LYLE Nicor Red River Energy Vector Midwestern Total Deliveries Linepack mmcf Target Linepack Net U.S. Imbalances Vector System Information Receipts N. Border Receipts Delivery to Union Foothills Pipeline Information Monchy Delivery (1) Positive: system is packing; Negative: drafting (2) Positive: net volumes into storage; Negative: out of storage
6 Page 6 of 6 BRITISH COLUMBIA Westcoast Rec Huntingdon Northwest Pipeline Westcoast Huntingdon 1072 Station 2 Westcoast Kingsvale Western Canada Gas Receipts and s* (mmcf) Fort Nelson Fort St. John Terasen ABC Coleman Southern Crossing Kingsgate GasTransmission Northwest TCPL BC Kingsgate 1731 Cap 1338 Cap 2770 < Gordondale TCPL AB Field Rec ALBERTA interconnects with Westcoast TCPL Alberta Foothills BC (TCPL BC) TCPL AB Deliveries: Coleman Empress McNeill McNeill Empress SASKATCHEWAN TransGas Foothills Saskatchewan Monchy Northern Border * Less imports back into Canada at Sault Ste Marie and St. Clair off of Great Lakes (GLGT). TransGas: Sask. Rec: TCPL Del: Foothills Del: Foothills Monchy TCPL Mainline Elmore MANITOBA Emerson Viking Elmore Cap 2200 Cap 1656 Cap: Capacity - operational capacity can be higher than firm contracted or physical capacity. Also much of the export capacity at Emerson into Great Lakes is capacity for re-delivery back into Canada (Southern Ontario - at Ste St Marie and St Clair) Cap. AB to Montana *Units are approximate mmcf. Some pipelines report mmcf and others btus or GJ. Where heat values are reported they are converted to 10^9btus which is approximately one mmcf. Volumes are largely nominated volumes. Actuals would be close to these volumes. 0 May 10 Total Western Canada Receipts (Includes TCPL-Alberta Field Rec., Westcoast Rec., Rec. and Trans- Gas Saskatchewan Rec.) Spruce TCPL Spruce Cap 26 Sprague Centra Great Minnesota Lakes TCPL Emerson s: Viking GLGT Gross Cap Net Exp. GLGT* 172 Net Cap 1315 s of Canadian Gas from Eastern Canada* (mmcf) May 10 TCPL-Mainline ONTARIO Total physical export capacity from Canada to the U.S. is over mmcfd. QUEBEC Sabrevois East Hereford Highwater Philipsburg Portland NGTS Maritimes and Northeast St. Stephen/ Bailyville Northern Border NGPL Joliet/ Aux Sable/ Manhattan Chicago Sault Ste. Marie Great Lakes Vector Sarnia St. Clair Ojibway Parkway Kirkwall 23 Union Dawn Toronto Iroquois Kingston Cornwall Empire State 7 Napierville NY Niagara- Niagara Spur Loop: Chippawa Dominion, National Fuel, Tennessee, Texas Eastern Union Ojibway (PEPL) 40 Cap 200 TCPL: U.S. Gas imported via Niagra Vector: Cdn gas re-imported at St Clair/Dawn GLGT: Cdn gas re-imported at Sault Ste. Marie GLGT: Cdn gas re-imported at St Clair/Dawn NET Canadian Gas s to the United States TCPL s: Chippawa St. Clair Niagara Napierville Iroquois Cornwall Philipsburg East Hereford St. Stephen Westbrook (Joint PNGTS& MNE) Dracut Boston (Importing Pipeline) (Empire State Pipeline) (Michcon Consumers) (Niagara Spur Loop) (North Country Gas) (Iroquois Pipeline) (St. Lawrence Gas) (Vermont Gas) (Portland Pipeline) (Martimes & Northeast) *Panhandle (PEPL) volumes are no longer included. They are American imports into Canada that do not affect actual total Canadian Gas s Contracted Capacity Brunswick 6 (Martimes & Northeast) 1189 * NET Canadian exports to the U.S. figure includes calculations subtracing gas re-imported via GLGT & Vector, and gas imported via TCPL Niagra 630 Canadian Natural Gas Daily Outlook is produced every business day by GLJ Energy Publications in Calgary, Alberta. The publisher assumes no liability for subscribers' use of this information. Sources for natural gas prices are NGX, ICE, & NYMEX. ISSN
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