Labour Market Flows in the European Union

Transcription

1 Dirección General del Servicio de Estudios Labour Market Flows in te European Union JM Casado, C Fernández and JF Jimeno 2nd European User Conference and EU-SILc Manneim Marc 31st, 2011

2 Outline: tree questions Have unemployment rates canged wit te Great Recession? Wat is te contribution of labour market flows to te cange in unemployment rates? Wo is beind tis cange in flows?: demograpic caracteristics of te individuals 1

3 Have unemployment rates canged? Unemployment rate AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK Average

4 Labour market flows contribution? Employment to unemployment Employment to inactivity Employment AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK promedio Unemployment to employment Unemployment rate AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK Average AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK promedio Inactivity to employment AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK promedio Unemployment to inactivity Inactivity to unemployment AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK promedio Unemployment Inactivity AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK promedio promedio

5 Labour market flows contribution? Assuming: eu ue * E * U + + iu ie * I * I = = ( ( ui ei + + ue eu )* U )* E We compute te steady state unemployment rate: u = eu + ie + iu eu iu + * ie ei + + iu iu ue * + ei iu + ie ie * ui 4

6 Labour market flows contribution? u = eu + ie eu iu + iu + * ie ei iu + + iu ue * + ei iu ie + ie * ui We assume tat all flows, but one, remain at te - average. Te one tat canges takes te observed value in Tis way we identify te contribution of eac flow to te increase in te unemployment rate in 2009 (te sum of tis contributions do not fully sum up to te observed difference ) 5

7 Labour market flows contribution? AT BE DE DK FR GR IT PT SE UK ES iu eu ei ue ui ie "residual" iu eu ei ue ui ie "residual" 6

8 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? For eac flow, we run 11 logit regressions: one for eac country: AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FR, GR, IT, PT, SE, UK Our reference period is In eac country and flow, te sample refers to all indiviudals tat are in te initial situation in te previous year (e.g. For te eu flow, te reference sample selects all te individuals tat report being unemployed in te previous year) Te endogenous variable is te probability of flowing from one state to te oter: eu, ei, ue, ui, ie, iu (wstat1y; ilostat) 7

9 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? Our exogenous variables are dummies tat identify weter te individual belongs to any of te following 18 demograpic groups: Gender (Male; Female) * Age (;; ) * Education (Prim; Second; Tertiary) Gender: sex Age: age Education: atlev1d Plus te interaction of tese categories wit te 2009 dummy: tese are our variables of interest!! Wo is beind te cange of te flow 8

10 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM EMPLOYMENT TO UNEMPLOYMENT Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR MALES GR IT PT SE UK Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig FEMALES Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig 9

11 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM EMPLOYMENT TO INACTIVITY Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES & & Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig FEMALES Hig Hig Hig Hig 10

12 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM EMPLOYMENT TO INACTIVITY Hazard decreasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES Hig FEMALES Hig Hig 11

13 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO EMPLOYMENT Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES FEMALES Hig 12

14 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO EMPLOYMENT Hazard decreasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES Hig Hig Hig Hig FEMALES Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig & Hig 13

15 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO INACTIVITY Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES ium Hig FEMALES Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig 14

16 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO INACTIVITY Hazard decreasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES Hig Hig Hig & FEMALES Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig 15

17 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM INACTIVITY TO EMPLOYMENT Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES FEMALES Hig 16

18 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM INACTIVITY TO EMPLOYMENT Hazard decreasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig FEMALES & & & Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig 17

19 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM INACTIVITY TO UNEMPLOYMENT Hazard increasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES & & Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig Hig FEMALES & Hig Hig Hig Hig 18

20 Wo is beind tis cange in flows? PROBABILITY OF FLOWING FROM INACTIVITY TO UNEMPLOYMENT Hazard decreasing AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK MALES Hig Hig Hig FEMALES Hig 19

21 Summary Beind te unemployment rate figure tere are many dimensions, not only in terms of flows but also in terms of individuals tat are moving eac flow. Terefore, policy implications may differ!! GERMANY NO CHANGE in te unemployment rate Workers ave lost teir job: males witout a college degree Unemployed ave moved to inactivity: middle-aged male and female unemployed DENMARK unemployment rate INCREASING Workers ave lost teir job: all groups Hie decreasing among young individuals Hiu increasing among young individuals but also among middle-aged 20

22 Using te : Wis List Letter to Fater Cristmas / Brief an Weinactsmann / Carta a los Reyes Magos 1. A more detailed description of metodological canges regarding te surveys across countries. 21

23 Using te : Wis List metodological canges 3, 2, 2, Employment to unemployment Austria 3, 2, 2, Employment to unemployment Belgium 4, 3, 3, 2, Employment to unemployment Germany 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Employment to unemployment Denmark , 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Employment to unemployment Spain 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Employment to unemployment France 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Employment to unemployment Greece 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Employment to unemployment Italy , 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Employment to unemployment Portugal 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Employment to unemployment Sweden 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Employment to unemployment United Kingdom

24 Inactivity to unemployment Austria Inactivity to unemployment Belgium Inactivity to unemployment Germany 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Denmark Using te : Wis List metodological canges 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Spain 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Inactivity to unemployment France 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Greece 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Italy 23 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Portugal 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 0, Inactivity to unemployment Sweden 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, Inactivity to unemployment United Kingdom

25 Using te : Wis List Letter to Fater Cristmas / Brief an Weinactsmann / Carta a los Reyes Magos 1. A more detailed description of metodological canges regarding te surveys across countries. 2. Longitudinal data in order to work wit observed quarterly flows. 24

26 Using te : Wis List longitudinal data Belgium Empleo->Desempleo Germany Empleo->Desempleo Spain Empleo->Desempleo France Empleo->Desempleo Denmark Empleo->Desempleo Greece Empleo->Desempleo 25 Italy Empleo->Desempleo Portugal Empleo->Desempleo

27 Using te : Wis List longitudinal data Belgium Empleo->Inactividad Germany Empleo->Inactividad Spain Empleo->Inactividad France Empleo->Inactividad Denmark Empleo->Inactividad Greece Empleo->Inactividad 26 Italy Empleo->Inactividad Portugal Empleo->Inactividad

28 Using te : Wis List longitudinal data 7 Belgium Desempleo->Empleo 7 Germany Desempleo->Empleo Spain Desempleo->Empleo 7 France Desempleo->Empleo Denmark Desempleo->Empleo Greece Desempleo->Empleo 27 7 Italy Desempleo->Empleo 7 Portugal Desempleo->Empleo

29 Using te : Wis List longitudinal data 6 Belgium Desempleo->Inactividad 6 Germany Desempleo->Inactividad Spain Desempleo->Inactividad 6 France Desempleo->Inactividad Denmark Desempleo->Inactividad Greece Desempleo->Inactividad 28 6 Italy Desempleo->Inactividad 6 Portugal Desempleo->Inactividad

30 Using te : Wis List Letter to Fater Cristmas / Brief an Weinactsmann / Carta a los Reyes Magos 1. A more detailed description of metodological canges regarding te surveys across countries. 2. Longitudinal data in order to work wit observed quarterly flows. 3. Sorter time-gap for publication of microdata (usually august/september of te following year, but 2009 december/january ): Possibility of partial releases. 29

31 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 30

32 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - vs 2009 Ovserved rate vs steady state 2 Unemployment rate (observed value in bars, steady state in dots) 1 AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK Promedio Unemployment rate - average vs 2009 AT BE DE DK ES FR GR IT PT SE UK Observada Steady State 31