South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response Plan (SAFER) National Lifelines Conference Dr Caroline Orchiston, University of Otago

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1 South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response Plan (SAFER) National Lifelines Conference 2017 Programme Manager: Project Executive: Science Risk Lead: Jon Mitchell Angus McKay, EM Southland Dr Caroline Orchiston, University of Otago

2 Led by Emergency Management Southland On behalf of all 6 South Island CDEM Groups MCDEM funded 2 year project July June Year 3 funding application under consideration Science Coordination GOAL To create a collective South Island earthquake response plan for a future Alpine Fault earthquake

3 Hazard Context Australian Plate Pacific Plate Slide courtesy of GNS Science

4 Practice Policy Research

5 Project AF8 Dynamic Collaboration INFORMS POLICY/PRACTICE DEFENCE FORCE WELFARE EMERGENCY SERVICES DOC CDEM REGIONAL COUNCILS HEALTH LOCAL COUNCILS Rural MCDEM INDUSTRY GROUPS NHRP QuakeCoRE EQC Resilience to Nature s Challenges NIWA Distributed Infrastructure, HAZARDS TOOLBOXES INFORMS RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES GNS SCIENCE PROJECT AF8 Laboratory COMMUNITY GROUPS IWI/RUNANGA RURAL SECTOR LIFELINES INFRASTRUCTURE NGOs INFORMS PRACTICE

6 Maximum Credible Scenario Workshops 6 South Island Groups National Agencies Functional Groupings Community Engagement Website / Social Media Interdependencies Gap analysis Best Practice Year 1 Report SAFER Plan framework (CIMS 2nd edition)

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8 Outputs: South Island Alpine Fault Emergency Response (SAFER) Plan Planning for national exercise Community resilience / public education material (Videos) Identification of vulnerable communities Community engagement Implementation / Continuity Strategy

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10 Alpine Fault segment most likely to rupture 411km long Stirling et al National Seismic Hazard Model

11 Hokuri Creek Evidence for past Alpine Fault quakes Alpine Fault Slide courtesy of Dr. Ursula Cochran, GNS Science

12 Slide courtesy of Dr. Ursula Cochran, GNS Science

13 Slide courtesy of Dr. Ursula Cochran, GNS Science Past Large Earthquakes in South Westland WHAT WE KNEW BEFORE WHAT WE KNOW NOW From John O Groats From Hokuri Creek WHAT WE KNEW BEFORE ~8000 years, 27 events = good sample 27 events over the past 8,000 years Rare worldwide Next earthquake = inevitable! Mean recurrence interval = years Recurrence behaviour = quasi-periodic

14 Regional AF8 workshops Otago Project AF8 workshop 23 rd January 2017 Seven workshops between November 2016 June 2017

15 Response Planning Workshops Southland: 40 attendees Otago: 100 West Coast: 60 Nelson Tasman: 70 Marlborough: 30 Canterbury: 120 Wellington: 110 Health Agencies 30 Emergency Services 30 Total: 590 participants Representing a broad range of CDEM and partner agencies: iwi, health, emergency services, NZDF, social agencies, community groups, tourism, local/central govt, lifeline utilities, FMCG

16 Organisations involved CDEM Groups Ministry of CDEM Emergency Services Local Authorities DHBs Ports Airports Economic Development Agencies St John Ambulance NZTA MSD NZDF MPI - AssureQuality Dept of Conservation Kai Tahu Te Pune Kokori Red Cross Helicopter operators PowerNet Meridian Energy KiwiRail Fuel Suppliers Spark + Vodafone Foodstuffs Otago University University of Canterbury Massey University GNS - RiskScape

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18 Alpine Fault rupture about every 300 years Last rupture 1717 Estimated to produce up to M 8.2 quakes Rupture Length 400+ km 9 m surface displacement Large co-seismic + cascading geomorphic consequences Significant human, environment, infrastructure + economic impact

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20 Estimated Displaced People by area/region: Region: Residents Visitors West Coast: 10,000 15,000 Otago: Queenstown Lakes / Central: 15,000 35,000 (to 70,000) Canterbury: (esp Mackenzie Dist) 10,000 2,000 Southland: Fiordland 3,000 10,000 Nelson Tasman: 2,000 5,000 Marlborough: 1,000 3,000 Wellington 2,000 2,000

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24 Response coordination with severely compromised telecommunications Coordinated reconnaissance: Local, regional, South Island, national Community, lifeline utilities, hazards Priority telecoms restoration / replacement Coordination, access + support of immediate medical response Efficient use of air transport resources - particularly helicopters Shelter, movement, reception & care of displaced residents + tourists Coordination of science support to regional responses

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26 Shared situational awareness across all regions (+ agency boundaries) Resilient info/intel acquisition, management, analysis, sharing Consistent messaging across the South Island Resupply of isolated communities: land, air, water Role of national agencies in South Island coordination + support: Including NZDF resources + facilities Coordination of inbound national + international resources Integration of iwi into overall response(s) National coordination + control - with Wellington compromised

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29 Days 1 to 3: Immediate Response Days 4 to 7: Ongoing Response, Relief, Begin transition to Recovery Situation (Science-informed scenario) Likely situation development Mission + (SMART) Objectives Tasks + Roles + Responsibilities (All functions / organisations) Logistics Coordination, Control, Communication, Intelligence Safety

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32 DHBs FENZ Regions Police Districts

33 Inter-South Island Support + Evacuation Recipient CDEM Group West Coast (Grey + Westland Districts) West Coast (Buller District) West Coast (Haast and South) Canterbury (Northern Kaikoura) Otago (Queenstown Lakes) Otago (if Dunedin severely damaged) Marlborough Support CDEM Group Canterbury Nelson Tasman Otago Marlborough Southland Southland Nelson Tasman

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35 Further Evacuation: Air

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37 Evacuation: Ship

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39 Inbound Support?

40 Shelter Water Food Psychosocial support Fuel: Diesel, petrol, JetA1, Avgas Access: Roads, Ports, Airports Helicopters Medical facilities / staff Field response: All agencies Response management/control Welfare management/staff Engineers / Building inspectors Electricity Telecommunications Shared Situational Awareness

41 To immediately mobilise a coordinated, mutuallysupportive, sustainable South Island-wide response to minimise loss of life, and to provide for the immediate to short-term needs of affected communities.

42 Preserve life and care for injured, sick and vulnerable people throughout the response Immediately initiate prioritised reconnaissance, impact assessment, and shared situational awareness Proactively maintain shared situational awareness throughout the response Mobilise and coordinate immediate and ongoing inter- CDEM Group responses to areas of most need

43 Establish telecommunication with all affected communities within 72 hours of the initial quake Coordinate multi-agency responses across the South Island throughout the response Provide responder access into and evacuee egress from affected areas within 72 hours of initial quake Ensure communities are provided with essential services of shelter, water, food and healthcare

44 Maintain law and order throughout the response Minimise further casualties from all significant hazards throughout the response Provide public information services to all communities and media, using all means available Initiate Recovery within first 3 days of response in preparation for eventual transition to Recovery

45 Initial Draft Plan Early December 17 Final Draft Mid-January 18 Consultation January-February 18 Final Plan March 18 Resilience video series November 17 Implementation Plan April-May 18 Project Report June 18

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47 Source: stuff.co.nz