The EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

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1 Industry Monitor The EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends Issue N /12/2015 European flights increased by 1.2% in October 2015 compared with October 2014 and were in line with the forecast. Preliminary data for November show an increase of 1.6% in flights on November last year. In its updated global passenger growth forecast, IATA expects 7 billion passengers in 2034 doubling the 3.5 billion projected in Top nine European airlines listed in this bulletin posted 6.3 billion operating profits during the third quarter, a 50% increase on the same period in Oil prices remained stable at 43 per barrel in November. EUROCONTROL statistics and forecasts 1 Other statistics and forecasts 3 Passenger airlines 3 Financial results of airlines 6 Airports 7 Oil 8 Economy 8 Fares 8 EUROCONTROL statistics and forecasts European flights (ESRA EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area) increased by 1.2% in October 2015 compared with October 2014 and were in line with the forecast. Preliminary data for November show an increase of 1.6% in flights on November last year (Figure 1). Apart from the low cost segment which maintained a steady growth rate of 5.3%, all the other market segments declined with business aviation down 5.4%, all-cargo down 1.7% and traditional scheduled down 1.4% in October 2015 (vs. October 2014). Although the charter segment surged to a 19% growth in October 2015 compared with the same month last year, this significant growth was inflated mainly by one regional airline in Norway, which switched from filing scheduled to non-scheduled type of flight in October 2015 (vs. October 2014). Ten states contributed to local traffic growth (over 25 extra flights per day, excluding overflights) on the European network in October 2015 (vs. October 2014) with Turkey (+177 flights/day), Spain (+145 flights/day), UK (+136 flights/day) and Germany (+108 flights/day) being the main contributors. The other zones each adding more than 25 daily flights to the network were Portugal, France, Ireland, Belgium/Luxembourg and Italy. With 87 fewer daily flights in October, Norway hit its tenth consecutive month removing traffic from the network. Sweden s weak domestic flows resulted in the state having 44 fewer flights per day in October 2015 (vs. October 2014). (Figure 2). Comprehensive statistics on flights are available from the STATFOR dashboard 1 (EUROCONTROL, November). 1 Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 1 EUROCONTROL 2015

2 Figure 1: Monthly European Traffic and Forecast (based on the Sep15 updated forecast). Figure 2: Main changes to traffic on the European network in October. Based on preliminary data from airlines for delays from all causes, 37% of flights were delayed on departure (>= 5 minutes) in October 2015, this was a small increase of one percentage point compared with October The average all-causes delay per flight in October 2015 decreased slightly to 9.1 minutes per flight. Further analysis of the delay reasons shows that reactionary and airline delays decreased by 0.3 minute and 0.2 minute per flight (Figure 3). During the third quarter of 2015, the average all-causes delay per flight increased from 11.8 minutes per flight during the third quarter of 2014 to 12.5 minutes per flight. The percentage of flights delayed on departure (>=5 minutes) increased by 2 percentage points with 46% of flights being delayed. Delays from all causes during 3Q2015 were at a fiveyear high compared with 3Q2014 (EUROCONTROL, November). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 2 EUROCONTROL 2015

3 Breakdown of all-causes delay per flight Percentage of flights delayed on departure Figure 3: Delay statistics (all-causes, airline-reported delay preliminary data for October 2015). Other statistics and forecasts ACI reported that overall passenger counts at European airports increased by 6.2% in September 2015 compared with the same month a year ago with overall aircraft movements growing by 3.3% on September 2014 (ACI, 5 November). IATA reported that European scheduled passenger traffic (RPK) was up 7.5% in September 2015 (vs. September 2014). Capacity rose by 7% and the total passenger load factor was 84.3% (IATA, 5 November). In its updated global passenger growth forecast, IATA expects seven billion passengers in 2034 doubling the 3.5 billion projected in 2015, with a 3.8% average annual growth rate. This is however a downward revision from the 7.4 billion passengers for 2034 based on the previous forecast issued in 2014 and reflects the negative developments in the global economy, namely slower economic growth forecast for China. For Europe, IATA forecasts air passenger numbers to grow 2.7% on average each year to reach 1.4 billion passengers in 2034 (IATA, 26 November). Passenger airlines Capacity, costs and jobs An eight-day strike (6-13 November) called by the Independent Flight Attendant s Organization (UFO) forced Lufthansa to cancel circa 4,700 flights; this was the longest strike in the airline s history. UFO has been in negotiations with Lufthansa over a dispute relating to cuts that the airline has proposed to cabin crew wages and retirement benefits to better compete with low-cost airlines and Gulf carriers. Facing difficulties to cut cost, Lufthansa has also announced it will review its capacity and low-yielding routes to Asia, Africa and South America from 2016 onwards. (Lufthansa Group, 8 & 12 November). Norwegian Air Shuttle was granted a UK Air Operating License and now plans to start operations during the first quarter of 2016 as Norwegian UK from its Gatwick base. With these new bilateral traffic rights, the low-cost airline will expand its network in UK but also launch flights to Asia, South America and South Africa (Norwegian, 13 November). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 3 EUROCONTROL 2015

4 Figure 4: Main carriers traffic statistics. The Latvian government has approved plans to sell a 20% stake of airbaltic to a German investor and to recapitalise the state-owned airline in order to achieve its Horizon 2021 business plan and fleet modernisation with Bombardier aircraft scheduled to be delivered during 4Q2016 (airbaltic, 5 November). easyjet has placed a firm order for 36 A320 family aircraft of which 30 A320neo and six A320ceo aircraft (Airbus, 17 November). As part of its restructuring process, airberlin is reportedly cutting all Spanish domestic routes from its hub in Palma de Mallorca and from Ibiza to concentrate on expanding its hubs at Berlin Tegel and Düsseldorf (Majorca Bulletin, 14 November). Austrian Airlines has sold its entire fleet of 21 Fokker aircraft which will be replaced with Embraer E195 aircraft intended to rejuvenate its medium-haul operations, effective January 2016 (Austrian Airlines, 25 November). Air France-KLM Group s plan to develop its low-cost subsidiary Transavia outside France and the Netherlands is again in discussions with the unions. Last year, to put an end to a 14-day pilots strike, the Group withdrew its project for a Transavia Europe. CAE Parc Aviation (a recruitment agency) has advertised pilots jobs with Transavia for a new base to be opened in Munich early It is reported that from March 2016 onwards, Transavia will launch 18 routes from Munich to European destinations; these will be operated by Transavia Holland (CAE Parc Aviation & airinfo.org, 30 November). Traffic statistics: October update Figure 4 and Figure 5 compare October 2015 figures with October 2014 figures. In addition to the number of passengers (PAX), passenger capacity is measured in available seat kilometres (ASK) and traffic is measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 4 EUROCONTROL 2015

5 Figure 5: Main carriers load factors. Routes, Alliances, Codeshares SAS will launch services from Stockholm, Oslo and Copenhagen to Tallinn, following Estonian Air s bankruptcy on 8 November (SAS, 9 November). Lufthansa s low-cost subsidiary Eurowings will launch 11 long-haul destinations from Cologne-Bonn to Boston, Las Vegas, Miami, Puerto Plata, Varadero, Punta Cana, Tehran, Dubai, Bangkok, Phuket and Mauritius. Eurowings will also start three new services from its Vienna base to Bastia, Alicante, Valencia and Faro with the start of the summer schedule (Eurowings, November). Aegean Airlines will operate 13 services from Athens to Amsterdam, Bari, Dublin, Krakow, Lille, Lisbon, Ljubljana, Luxembourg, Naples, Nice, Palma, Split and Jeddah, effective from the launch of the summer 2016 schedule (Aegean, November). Air Europa and Air Serbia have signed a codeshare agreement whereby Air Europa will place its code on Air Serbia s service from Belgrade to Amsterdam, Brussels, Frankfurt, Milan Malpensa and Paris Charles De Gaulle whereas Air Serbia will place its code on Air Europa s service from Madrid to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan Malpensa, Rome and from Paris Charles De Gaulle to Malaga and Valencia (Air Europa & Air Serbia, November). Czech Airlines will launch seven new routes from Prague to Birmingham, Poznan, Gdansk, Helsinki, Zagreb, Pisa and Malta in summer 2016 season (Czech Airlines, November). Luxair will launch five holiday destinations from Luxembourg to Spain (Almeria), Croatia (Dubrovnik, Zadar) and Greece (Chania, Heraklion) with the start of its summer 2016 schedule (Luxair, November). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 5 EUROCONTROL 2015

6 Figure 6: Main carriers financial results 3Q15. Failures State-controlled Estonian Air ceased operations on 8 November after EU ruled that the airline had received illegal state-aid which it will have to pay back. Nordic Aviation Group formed by the Estonian government will manage the defunct airline s key routes through Adria Airways. The latter will operate all flights using its own fleet. Estonian Air was established in 1991 and operated a fleet of five aircraft (Estonian Air & Adria Airways, 7 November). Austrian regional InterSky filed for insolvency on 9 November. The airline operated scheduled flights from its German base at Friedrichshafen to Germany, Austria, Switzerland and seasonal scheduled and charter flights to Croatia, Italy, Spain, Greece and the Channel Islands with a fleet of five aircraft (InterSky, 10 November). Creta-based Minoan Air has reportedly temporarily suspended operations. The airline operated domestic flights from Iraklion to eight destinations in Greece with a fleet of four Fokker 50 aircraft (ch-aviation, 5 November). Financial results of airlines Figure 6 compares the third quarter of 2015 financial results with the third quarter of 2014 ones for the top nine European airlines (based on 2015 traffic shares Alitalia completes the list of the Top 10 European airlines, but the company s result were not available). Thanks to a strong summer performance and lower oil prices, all the airlines reported in this bulletin improved their operating profits during 3Q15 and together posted 6.3 billion profit, an increase of 50% compared with 3Q14 (source: company reports). Note: Taking into account the impact of last year s pilots strike in September, Air France- KLM operating profit is circa 300 million on a like-for-like basis. Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 6 EUROCONTROL 2015

7 Figure 7: Brent and kerosene prices. Airports During the first nine months of 2015, the busiest European airports, based on the number of flight movements, were as follows: (source: Rank Airport Name Average Daily Movements Growth on 2014 (Jan-Sep) 1 Paris Charles De Gaulle 1, % 2 London Heathrow 1, % 3 Frankfurt 1, % 4 Amsterdam 1, % 5 Istanbul Atatürk 1, % 6 Munich 1, % 7 Madrid 1, % 8 Rome Fiumicino % 9 Barcelona % 10 London Gatwick % Heathrow reported revenue up 4.1% to 3 billion for the first nine months of 2015 compared with the same period a year ago. Passenger traffic was up 2.3% to a record 57 million passengers for the January-September period (Heathrow, 28 October). Fraport reported revenue increasing by 9.5% to 2 billion during the first nine months of 2015 compared with the same months in Passenger traffic at Frankfurt grew by 3.6% to 47 million passengers for the January-September period (Fraport, 5 November). Aéroports de Paris (ADP) reported consolidated revenue growing by 5.3% to 2 billion for the first nine months of 2015 compared with Passenger traffic increased by 4.1% at Paris Charles de Gaulle and by 9.4% at Istanbul Atatürk (ADP, 12 October). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 7 EUROCONTROL 2015

8 Figure 8: Deflated ticket prices in Europe. Oil Oil prices remained stable at 43 per barrel in November. Converted indices for Kerosene and Brent are shown in Figure 7. Economy Euro area economy indicators updates: Annual inflation was 0.1% in October 2015 compared with 0.4% in October GDP rose by 0.3% during the 3Q15 compared with the same quarter of Unemployment rate was 10.8% in September 2015 compared with 11.5% in September 2014 (Eurostat, 13 & 16 November) In its autumn forecast, the European Commission estimated GDP in the Euro area to increase by 1.6% in 2015 rising to 1.8% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017 (Europa, 5 November). Fares Deflated ticket prices in Europe increased by 2.8% in October year-on-year, based on preliminary values. This is above the trend of 1.2% (12-month trailing average) shown in Figure 8 (Eurostat, 16 November). Note: to eliminate the influence of inflation on euro figures, the ticket price is deflated with a price index. The STATFOR deflated ticket prices are estimated in 2005 constant euros. Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 8 EUROCONTROL 2015

9 2015 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service Industry Monitor. Issue /12/2015 Page 9 EUROCONTROL 2015

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