ACTION PLAN SUMMARY I. IMPROVING TECHNICAL STANDARDS AND RELATED RULES. NOX More stringent international rules By 2001 (33 rd ICAO Assembly)

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1 ACTION PLAN SUMMARY AREA OBJECTIVES/TARGETS/ACTIONS TARGET DATES I. IMPROVING TECHNICAL STANDARDS AND RELATED RULES 1. Noise More stringent international standards and rules for transition By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) 2. Gaseous Emissions NOX More stringent international rules By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) CO2 and other greenhouse gases Reductions according to the targets of the Kyoto protocol. 21 for review and update (33 rd ICAO Assembly) LTO emissions Provide proposal for an equivalent charge By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) Emission methodologies To be improved, in co-operation with SBSSTA and CAEP By 21 (33 rd 3. Operational Measures ICAO Assembly) Air Management Traffic Improve ATM efficiency Communication end 1999 II. STRENGTHENING MARKET INCENTIVES 1. Economic Incentives Aviation charges Proposal for an aviation charge By early 21 (after CAEP 5) Emission trading Explore benefits/risks By 21 Carbon offsets Explore benefits/risks By Encouraging Industry Initiatives EMAS Encourage airports/airlines to register under the new EMAS regulation (upcoming) New regulation 2) EMAS (mid Voluntary agreements Suggest voluntary agreements on emission reductions. Early 2 launch of substantive discussions 27

2 1. A Common Noise Classification Scheme 2. A Framework for Noise Measurement A Framework for Landuse Rules 3. A Community Framework for Operating Rules 4. Introducing More Stringent Noise Rules at Individual Airports 5. The role of other modes R&D Monitoring III. ASSISTING AIRPORTS Proposal for a Community framework on noise classification Proposal for a common noise measurement index, a methodology for noise calculation and minimum requirements for noise monitoring Guidance on best practices for land-use decisions Framework fo procedural rules, best practices dissemination Analyse appropriateness of a Community system for identifying noise-sensitive airports Working towards for more effective air/rail intermodality IV- ADVANCING TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT (R&D) Develop inventories of statistics and indicators through the Transport and Environment Review Mechanism (TERM) process. By 2 By 21 By 21 (Report) By 21 (Report) By 21 (Report) Ongoing Ongoing (5 th and 6 th R&D framework programme) TERM-Zero report to be published in early 2, review by 22 28

3 ANNEX 1 EU Passenger Transport Performance Main Modes of Transport Figure 1: Performance by mode 1 mio pkm Passenger Buses & Tram + Railway Air* cars Coaches Metro % +6% -13% +3% +58% Total % Source : ECMT, UIC, UITP, national statistics and estimates Notes : * European traffic, Source : AEA, IATA and estimates Worldwide traffic of EU carriers was 55 bio pkm in 1995 EU Passenger Transport performance by mode (1 mio pkm) % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Passenger cars Buses & Coaches Tram + Metro Railway Air* Source: EU TRANSPORT IN FIGURES, STATISTICAL POCKETBOOK, DG TRANS, EUROSTAT 29

4 MARKET DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY Figure 2: Growth and Forecast in Scheduled Air Traffic Capacity Seat Km Offered (billion) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Historical Forecast Central High; Central GDP + 3% Average 5.9%p.a Low; Central GDP - 3% Average 3.7% p.a , Figure 3: Capacity Forecast by Geographical Region 1, Seat Kilometres Offered (billion) 8, 6, 4, 2, Historical Europe SE Asia USA & Canada Rest of the World 17% 38% 19% 26% Forecast Note: World regions grouped for clarity 17% 33% 28% 22% Source: ECAC/ANCAT (Expert group on Abatement of Noise Caused by Air Transportation) 3

5 Figure 4: Capacity Trend 1 8 ASK (1 12 ) 6 4 Growth 2 Rem aining base fleet Replacem ent ASK: Available Seat Kilometres Source: ECAC/ANCAT (Expert group on Abatement of Noise Caused by Air Transportation) 31

6 MARKET DEVELOPMENT - DEMAND Figure 5: Growth Situation of Aviation +66% +45% % Europe North America % % South America Africa +89% Middle-East 47 Asia/Pacific 1^9 RPK (Revenue Passenger km) Year Total Forecast % Source: DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 32

7 Figure 6: Forecast of Passenger Demand in Aviation (1^9 Revenue Passenger Kilometre) 1 BOEING RPK * 1^9 8 6 AIRBUS ICAO ANCAT/EC2 7 % PAX LF 5% per annum YEAR Source DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 33

8 FUEL CONSUMPTION AND CONSUMPTION EFFICIENCY Figure 7: Growth of Air Traffic and Fuel Consumption % 1 DEMAND (RPK) 5 FUEL YEAR RPK= Revenue Passenger Kilometres Source: Assessment using Boeing Market Outlook 34

9 Figure 8: Engine Technology Steps and Gain of SFC SFC [kg/dan/h] 1, Turbojet,8,6 18% 2% 12% 1.Gen Turbofans 2.Gen 3.Gen Propfan?,4,3 Limit of an ideal engine Year Source: MTU/DLR (Specific Fuel Consumption) at cruise conditions Note: Specific Fuel Consumption means the amount of fuel weight flow to an engine's combustor in kg per hour (kg/h) divided by the amount of thrust produced by the engine in dekanewton (dan=1 N) 35

10 Figure 9: Development of Aircraft Fuel Consumption per 1 Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) Litre/1 km 12 Comet NM trip global average(1992) from ANCAT/EC2 6 B727-1 B77-12 B737-2 B DC 9-3 B747-4 B747-2B 2 A3 B767 A32 A34-3 Year Source: DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 36

11 Figure 1: Aircraft and Engine Fuel Efficiency Improvement (Long range transport) 1 8 Engine 6 Aircraft % -2.% % per annum -1.8% -2.6% -.6% -1.3% Year Source: DLR Base: B77 37

12 Figure 11 : Number of commercial aircraft by N oise certification operated in EU ICAO noise classifications: Chapter 1: aircraft types certified before 197 (e.g. Boeing 77) Chapter 2: aircraft types certified between 197 and 1978 (e.g. Boeing ) Chapter 3: aircraft typescertified after 1978 (e.g. AirbusA31) SS - Super Sonic (Concorde) Stage Chapter Chapter Chapter Super Sonic Total (source: Airclaims ) EU noise stage evolution Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Super Sonic

13 Fuel burned, Nox and CO 2 forecast 1991/2 and 215 EU 1992 EU215 USA 1992 USA 215 World 1992 World 215 Fuel (Tg) 15,5 29,5 29,9 51,4 17,4 226,5 Nox* (as Gg NO 2 ) ,5 327,3 557,7 1317,8 2678,8 CO 2 (Tg) 49,3 94,3 95, ,9 723,4 Source : ANCAT / ECAC Tg (teragram) = 1 12 grams Gg (gigagram) = 1 9 grams *asggno 2 Notes: Notes: The data excludes the following: 1. Dedicated freight traffic 2. Business jet traffic 3. Military traffic 4. General aviation and helicopters 5. Carriers from the former Soviet Union and Eastern European states Figure 12: Fuel and NOx forecast for 1992 and 215 World 215 World 1992 USA 215 USA 1992 CO2 (Tg) Nox* (as Gg NO2) Fuel (Tg) EU215 EU Teragrams (except for NOX which is in Gigagrams) 39

14 Figure 13: Annual emissions of NO x (Gg NO 2 ) from civil aviation and percentage of global totals 1991/92 Legend: upper figure is the NO x emission lower is the percentage of global total Latitude < < Longitude Figure 14: Annual consumption of fuel (Tg ) from civil aviation and percentage of global totals, 1991/92 Legend: upper figure is the fuel burn lower is the percentage of global total Latitude <.1 < <.1 < <.1 < Longitude source : ANCAT/ECAC 4