Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Activities in Nepal

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1 Review International Journal of Erosion Control Engineering, Vol.3, No.1, 2010 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Activities in Nepal Samjwal R. BAJRACHARYA International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Khumaltar Lalitpur, PO Box 3226 Kathmandu, Nepal) The climate variability and global climatic change has brought tremendous impact on the high mountainous glacial environment. About 6% of glacier area has been decreased in the Tamor and Dudh Koshi sub-basins of eastern Nepal from 1970 s to The Himalayan glaciers are shrinking, retreating and lowering its surface. Consequently the lakes formed at the glacier snouts are expanding rapidly in most cases. The ICIMOD in 2001 mapped 2323 glacial lakes and out of it 20 lakes were identified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal however, three lakes were removed from the list of dangerous glacial lakes. As an impact of global warming 50 lakes is growing and 22 new lakes have been formed after Almost all the glacial lakes are situated at high altitude of rugged terrain with harsh climatic condition. Hence to carry out the physical mitigation work on these lakes are impractical but the awareness and adaptation measures can be carried out to reduce the GLOF risk. As a pilot case study GLOF risk reduction activities were carried out in Everest region downstream of Imja Tsho, one of the fastest growing lakes in the Himalaya. 1. INTRODUCTION The glaciers serve as a water tower of fresh water supply as well as repository of information for exploring quaternary climate changes as they remain sensitive to global temperature conditions [Houghton and others, 2001; Oerlemans The information of glaciers and glacial lakes are imperative to comprehend global warming and to reduce GLOF risk in the Himalayan region. The study of ICIMOD in 2001 revealed 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 glacial lakes Mool and others, 2001]. Due to the impact of global warming, glaciers are melting rapidly [Fujita and others, 2001; Bajracharya and others, 2006, 2007], resulting in the decrease of ice mass balance with the formation and expansion of substantial number of glacial lakes behind the loose moraine [Watanabe and others, 1994] with the fear of glacial lake outburst floods. The rapid accumulation of water in such lakes can lead to a sudden breach of unstable moraine dams. A number GLOFs have been reported in the region in the last few decades, particularly from the eastern region Mool and others, 2001; Yamada and others, 1998; Richardson and Reynolds, 2000; Bajracharya and others, 2007, The ICIMOD identified 20 such lakes as potentially dangerous in 2001; however, three lakes have been removed from the danger list (Bajracharya 2007). In 2000 physical mitigation 92 work was carried out in Tsho Rolpa by reducing the water level by three meters that cost almost US$ 3 million. To mitigate the GLOF risk from this lake, the water level should be reduced by 20 m in successive phases. Due to harsh climatic conditions and remoteness, it became very expensive and difficult to complete the project. Alternative solutions that are reliable and applicable to Nepal should be identified. 2. STUDY AREA Nepal Himalaya of about 840 km stretch is centrally located on the southern lap of 2400 km long Himalayan range. The northern part of Nepal is high elevated with mostly snow and ice covered rugged terrain and southern part is flat and low elevation, hence almost all the glaciers and glacial lakes are situated in the northern part of Nepal. Nepal has opened its borders to foreigners only after 1950, and therefore there were no studies conducted on glaciers and glacial lakes before then. In the early 1960 to 1970, some studies were initiated by foreign scientists and Nepalese professionals were involved only after the Dig Tsho GLOF in GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE The global average temperature had increased by approximately 0.75 ºC in 100 years in the last century, IPCC, 2001, and the temperature in the

2 Nepal Himalaya had increased by 0.15 to 0.6 ºC per decade in the last three decades Shrestha and In the recent decades, there had been a significant increase in the global average temperature. Each year is recorded as hottest year since 1987 on the global record from 1880 to present Ekwurzel, 2006; IPCC, 2007; the Independent, 2007]. Most climate models show that a doubling of preindustrial emission of greenhouse gases is very likely to raise the temperature of the earth between 2 to 5 ºC in global mean temperatures between 2030 and 2060 IPCC, 2007]. Several new studies suggest up to a 20 percent chance that warming could be greater than 5 ºC. If annual greenhouse gas emissions remained at the current level, concentrations would be more than treble pre-industrial levels by 2100, raising the temperature of earth by 3 to 10 ºC, according to the climate projections Stern review, 2007]. 4. GLACIER RETREAT The climate variability and global climatic change had brought tremendous impact on the high mountainous glacial environment Bajracharya and others, 2006, 2008; Houghton and other, 2001; Oerlemans, From 1970 to 2000, approximately 6 percent of glacier areas have decreased in the Tamor and Dudh Koshi sub-basins of eastern Nepal Bajracharya, 2006, Since the early 1970 and more rapidly in recent decades, the Himalayan glaciers are shrinking, retreating and surface lowering Bajracharya and others, 2009; Bolch et al, 2008a; Fujita and others, 2001, 2009; Khromova and others, 2003; Paul, 2002; Paul and others, For example, the AX010 Glacier of others,1999], which is two to eight fold higher than the global average temperature. Mt. Everest region is shrinking at all sides with the fear of disappearing by 2060 Asahi and others,2006 ; the Valley glaciers in the Mt. Everest region are retreating at a rate of 10 to 60m per year on average Bajracharya et al, 2007 and glacier surface lowering by 0.4m per year Bolch, The glacier retreat in consequence with glacial lake formation and expansion is anticipated more in coming years due to global temperature rise. 5. GLACIAL LAKES The first and homogeneous inventory of glacial lakes of Nepal was carried out by ICIMOD in 2001 based on the topographic maps of Survey of India at the scale of 1: 63,360. These topographic maps were based on the aerial photographs of with consecutive field work and published in The lakes larger than sq km at an elevation higher than 3,500 masl were mapped from these toposheets. The total number of lakes was 2,323 with the total area of 75.7 sq km. Among these 20 glacial lakes are identified as potentially dangerous (Table 1). The second generation glacial lake inventory was carried out by ICIMOD in 2009 using the landsat satellite images of 30m resolution. Due to low resolution of the image the lake area covering sq km (2 x 1pixel) and greater were mapped. The total number of lakes mapped was only 1,466 with the total lake area of sq km. The average lake area mapped in 2001 was sq km where as the average lake area mapped in 2009 was sq km. The number of lakes in 2009 has been reduced drastically due to merging of supraglacial lakes and Table 1 Status of Glacial Lakes and GLOF in Nepal [ICIMOD, 2001/2009 and Bajracharya et al Items Years Number of Glacial Lakes Total Glacial Lake area (sq km) Glacial Lake area larger than 0.02 sq km Total number Associated with mother glaciers Distance to glacier at less than 1 km Growing Glacial Lakes 50 Glacial Lakes formed after Potentially dangerous Glacial Lakes GLOF in Tibet/China damage inside Nepal GLOF in Nepal 12

3 Fig. 1 Distribution of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal. Tamor: A - Nagma, B - (?); Arun: C - Lower Barun; Dudh Koshi: D - Lumding, E - Imja, F - Tam Pokhari, G - Dudh Pokhari, H - (?), I - (?), J - Hungu, K - East Hungu 1, L - East Hungu 2, M - (?), N - West Chamjang, O - Dig Tsho; Tama Koshi: P - Tsho Rolpa; Budhi Gandaki: Q - (?); Marsysngdi: R- Thulagi; Kali Gandaki: S - (?),T- (?). mapping methodology and hence, the average lake area has been increased significantly. 6. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS GLACIAL LAKES Out of 2,323 glacial lakes 20 were identified as potentially dangerous in 2001 (Fig. 1); however, three lakes (F: Tam Pokhari, O: Dig Tsho, and I: unnamed in Dudh Koshi basin) were removed from the danger list as the area of the lakes have been reduced drastically due to outburst [Bajracharya, 2007, 2008, As an impact of global warming, 50 lakes are growing and 22 new lakes have formed after 2000 Bajracharya, 2005, 2006 (Table 1). If the lakes continue to form and grow in the present trend with respect to the climate change it is anticipated that the number of potentially dangerous glacial lakes will increase with a high possibility of GLOFs in near future a. Namche micro-hydropower site b. Moraine dam breach in 1985 c. Marginal settlements Fig. 2 The Dig Tsho GLOF damaged the slope in 1985 but the damage continuing throughout the year. 94

4 7. GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD DISASTER The sudden breach of moraine dammed glacial lake deliver unexpected debris flow - GLOF - causing catastrophic damage along the lower terraces of downstream of the lake [Bolch et al., 2008b; Watanabe et al., 1994, Bajracharya et al., 2005; Hambrey et al., 2008]. The past record shows that at least one catastrophic GLOF event had happened at an interval of three to 10 years in the Himalayan region. Nepal had already experienced 22 catastrophic GLOFs including 10 GLOFs in Tibet/China damaging inside Nepal (Table 1) reported by Bajracharya et al. (2007), Mool (1995), Mool et al. (2001), Reynolds (1998), Yamada et al. (1998;2000), Yamada and Sharma (1993). The Zhangzangbo GLOF of 1981 in Tibet (China) did a lot of damage in China and Nepal. It even caused severe damage to the Nepal - China Highway sections including wash out of three bridges. The Dig Tsho GLOF of 1985 in the Dudh Koshi subbasin damaged the Namche micro-hydropower station, 14 bridges, cultivated lands and many more Vuichard and Zimmerman, The damaging phenomenon occurs at the river valley sides of high altitude where the harsh climatic condition allows very slow growth of vegetation. Once the slope is disturbed by the GLOF, it remained unstable due to high erosive nature of rain, snow and wind than the natural slope stabilization in high altitude. Hence the undamaged settlements, landforms and infrastructure during the GLOF are now exposed to the active landslides and erosion scars (Fig. 2) making this area at high-risk. The damage caused by GLOF is not a one-time occurrence; it is followed by continuous erosion phenomena with the threat of danger throughout the year with short-and long-term environmental and socio-economic hazards. Table 2 GLOF events that have occurred affecting inside Nepal No. Date River basin Lake Latitude Longitude Tibet Autonomous Region, China 1 Aug 1935 Sun Koshi Tara-Cho ' Sept 1964 Arun Gelhaipco 27 58' ' Sun Koshi Zhangzangbo 28 04' ' Aug 1964 Trisuli Longda Arun Ayaco ' Arun Ayaco ' Arun Ayaco 28 21' ' Jul 1981 Sun Koshi Zhangzangbo 28 04' ' Aug 1982 Arun Jinco 28 00' ' Jun 1995 Trisuli Zanaco Nepal 11 About 450 years ago Seti Khola Machhapuchhre 28 31' 13" 83 59' 30" 12 3 Sept 1977 Dudh Koshi Nare 27 49' 47" 86 50' 12" Jun 1980 Tamor Nagma Pokhari 27 51' 57" 87 51' 46" 14 4 Aug 1985 Dudh Koshi Dig Tsho 27 02' 36" 86 35' 02" Jul 1991 Tama Koshi Chhubung 27 52' 37" 86 27' 38" 16 3 Sept 1998 Dudh Koshi Tam Pokhari Unknown Arun Barun Khola 27 50' 33" 87 05' 01" 18 Unknown Arun Barun Khola 27 49' 46" 87 05' 42" 19 Unknown Dudh Koshi Chokarma Cho Unknown Kali Gandaki Unnamed 29 13' 14" 83 42' 09" 21 Unknown Kali Gandaki Unnamed " 83 44' 19" 22 Unknown Mugu Karnali Unnamed

5 8. GLOF Risk Reduction Activities Almost all of the dangerous and growing glacial lakes are situated at remote and high altitudes with harsh climatic conditions. Hence to carry out the physical mitigation works on these lakes are expensive and impractical, but awareness and adaptation measures can be carried out to reduce the GLOF risk. The second generation inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes were carried out in 2009 by ICIMOD to understand the activity of glaciers and glacial lakes in the context of global warming. As a part of pilot case study, GLOF risk reduction activities were carried out in the Everest region downstream of Imja Tsho. The study was continued successively by using simulation of GLOF, vulnerability and risk assessment, near real-time monitoring, real-time monitoring, networking of field sensor and transmission station, rural wireless internet connectivity and possible mitigation measures in the Everest region in Simulation of GLOF Using the Dam Break and HEC Ras models possible extension of debris flow, flood depth and travel time of debris and nature of flood propagation in the downstream was derived from the hydrodynamic modeling Bajracharya and others, 2007a. The spatial distribution of the flood was analyzed by preparing inundation maps for the high flood level along the river (Table 3). This table helps to estimate the arrival time of the flood, which is useful in reducing the GLOF risk. The result needs to be verified, and if it is closure to the reality this type of simulation can be replicated with some modification in other potentially dangerous glacial lakes of the Himalaya. 8.2 GLOF Vulnerability and Risk Assessment The vulnerability of an area to a GLOF is assessed by calculating the probability of a direct or indirect hit by the GLOF. The GLOF vulnerability assessments of the downstream valley along Imja Tsho were carried out through visual inspections, walkover surveys and additional information used from the modeling and flood routing along the river valley. Most of the major settlements, infrastructure and trekking routes are at lower terraces of GLOF risk area (Fig. 3). The landslides that were generated from 1985 GLOF is still active in Ghat and Phakding. A new GLOF could trigger new instabilities in many places and reactivate the old ones. The vulnerability and risk assessment result will be helpful in planning and developing the area as well as to create awareness among the people living in the downstream to reduce the GLOF risk. 8.3 Near real-time monitoring The glaciers are retreating and the lakes associated with the glaciers are rapidly increasing in size and number in recent decades. Up-to-date database of the glaciers and glacial lakes are of utmost importance to understand the glaciers and glacial lakes activities, which is only possible through satellite images. Clouds can be a major hindrance to satellite imaging particularly during the monsoon season in the visible and infrared remote sensing range. Information missed due to cloud cover cannot be retrieved and is then accessible only by field observation, which is not possible to cover for all regions. An alternative solution is microwave remote sensing. Since microwave sensing can penetrate cloud cover, it is independent of weather conditions and is thus suitable for year-round monitoring of glacial lakes. Since 2007, ICIMOD is using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data to monitor the growth of Imja Tsho and its vicinity with the support of European Space Agency (ESA). The RADAR can be used to Table 3 Estimated flood arrival time and discharge from Imja GLOF Place Chainage (Km) Time (min) Discharge (m 3 S -1 ) Flood depth (m) Imja lake outlet Dingboche Orso Pangboche Larja Dovan Bengkar Ghat

6 Dingboche a. Possible GLOF impact in Dingboche village b. Field photograph Fig. 3 :GLOF Vulnerability assessment along the downstream of Imja Tsho monitor as often as monthly. The free download access to LANDSAT satellite image is a great support in monitoring and mapping of glacier and glacial lakes. As an example the change detection of Imja Tsho from 1979 to 2009 is shown in Fig Real-time monitoring Scientific studies and regular monitoring of growing lakes is of utmost importance to prevent potential GLOF hazards. ICIMOD identified Imja Tsho in Everest region is one of the fastest growing lakes in the Himalaya. With the cooperation of Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC) and Keio University of Japan, ICIMOD is aiming to monitor regularly and devise an early warning system using remote sensing geo-ict tools and techniques in the Imja Tsho (Fig. 5). The collected information like lake water level, total weather station and photographs collected from the web camera transmits through the stations to local Internet Service Provider (ISP) in Namche Bazaar to upload. This information is processed, scanned, filtered and again uploaded into the website by Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) ( for stakeholders to view. 8.5 Rural wireless Internet connectivity The installation of networking of field sensor and transmission station can facilitate to commission local area WIFI with the possibility to connect with national telecom network and provide rural connectivity and access to information. Wireless Internet facilities are provided by Keio University at Chhukung, Pangboche, Tengboche and Dingboche Villages and further could be added in other GLOF risk area. The services will be limited within the area where networking of field sensors and transmission stations are available. 8.6 Create global and local awareness ICIMOD and Asian Trekking jointly organised the Eco Everest Expedition 2008 program. Under this program, different climate change awareness activities were carried out including the ICIMOD Information Centre at Everest Base Camp from 12 April to 12 June 2008, 50 years repeat photography of Himalayan glaciers (Fig. 6); message from the Director General of ICIMOD read by Dawa Steven Sherpa from the summit of the Mt. Everest and demonstrations of eco-friendly alternative energy. GLOF Awareness Workshop was organised for the local people in Namche Bazaar (entry point to Mt. Everest) on Climate change impact in the Himalaya: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) on 25 April 2008 with the contribution of Appa Sherpa, 18-times Mt. Everest summiteers, Dawa Steven Sherpa, leader of Eco Everest Expedition, Japanese team from Keio University and NHK TV team, ICIMOD experts, local media people, senior citizens and about 50 local people (Fig. 7). 8.7 Early warning systems Early warning systems aim to detect impending GLOFs in sufficient time to relay a warning to people who might be affected so that they can move to safer grounds. In 1997, the meteor burst early warning system with duel function of receiver and transmitter was installed in Tsho Rolpa Lake and its downstream areas. Due to poor maintenance and lack of ownership, the system worked for only a couple of years and now not a single set exist in the field. 97

7 Fig. 4 Growth of Imja Tsho from 1962 to Learning lessons from this, the effective and system is innovative in nature and will be first-of-its practical use of early warning systems will be an IT kind in the Himalayan region. It is necessary to based early warning system with clear ownership develop awareness and capacity of the local people guidelines. The use of geo-ict tools and techniques who now have access to wireless internet, but not in will be a state-of-the-art in the region and the full capacity. internet connectivity will be the backbone to the overall system. The web-based early warning system can be developed at ICIMOD and disseminated through the internet and can be replicated in other basins of potentially dangerous lakes. This type of 98

8 Message: Let us care for Environment of Himalaya & strengthen its people s determination and resilience Fig. 5 Networking of transmit station and field sensors to nearest ISP in Namche Bazar. a: 1956: Fritz Muller; courtesy of Jack Ives b: 2006: G Kappenberger courtesy of A. Byers Fig. 6 Repeat photography of Imja Glacier in 50 Years Fig. 7 Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) awareness workshop in Namche Bazaar. 99

9 8.8 Encourage development activities in less GLOF risk area The Everest region is one of the most popular tourist destinations and hence many hotels, lodges and other infrastructures linger near or along the trekking route. Most of the trekking routes are along the riverbank at lower terraces that might be easily washed out in case of GLOF. To reduce GLOF risk, it is necessary to discourage or stop development activities in GLOF risk area and encourage shifting and development of new activities only in the low GLOF risk areas. 9. CONCLUSIONS The rapidly growing glacial lakes will most likely pose danger in near future and therefore it is vital that these glaciers and glacial lakes need to monitor for sound management of water resources and disaster risk reduction. Instead of constructing physical mitigation structure on the unstable moraine and earthquake prone zone, it will be more feasible to create awareness for adaptation and/or reduce water level by safe breaching of the moraine dam. However, the phenomenon is a challenge with limits imposed by the higher altitude, rarefied atmosphere, remoteness of many of the locations and short working season due to near-freezing temperatures in the area. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The author is grateful to Basanta Shrestha and Pradeep Mool from ICIMOD for their support and cooperation in preparing this document. REFERENCES Asahi, K., Kadota T., Naito N. and Ageta Y. (2006): Variations of small glaciers since the 1970s to 2004 in Khumbu and Shorang regions, eastern Nepal Data Report 4 ( ). GEN, CREH. NU Japan and DHM Nepal Bajracharya, B., Shrestha A.B. and Rajbhandari L. (2007a). Glacial lake outburst floods in the Sagarmatha region: hazard assessment using GIS and hydrodynamic modeling Mt. Res. Dev Bajracharya, S. R. and Mool P. K. (2009): Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region. Nepal. Annals of Glaciology, 50 (53) London, UK Bajracharya, S.R., Mool P.K. and Shrestha B. R. (2008): Global climate change and melting of Himalayan glaciers. In Ranade, P.S., ed. Melting glaciers and rising sea levels: impacts and implications, Hyderabad, India, Icfai University Press, Bajracharya, S.R., Mool P.K. and Shrestha B.R. (2007): Impact of climate change on Himalayan glaciers and glacial lakes: case studies on GLOF and associated hazards in Nepal and Bhutan. ICIMOD.119. Bajracharya, S. R., Mool P. K. and Shrestha B. R. (2006): The impact of global warming on the glaciers of the Himalaya. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Geodisasters, Infrastructure Management and Protection of World Heritage Sites, Nov 2006, Kathmandu: NEC, NSET Nepal, and EU Japan, Bajracharya, S.R. and Mool P.K. (2005): Growth of hazardous glacial lakes in Nepal. In Yoshida, M., B.N. Upreti, T.N. Bhattarai and S. Dhakal, eds. International Seminar on Natural Disaster Mitigation and Issues on Technology Transfer in South and Southeast Asia JICA Regional Seminar, (2004): Proceedings, TU Nepal and JICA, Benn, D., Wiseman S. and C. Warren (2000): Rapid growth of a supraglacial lake, Ngozumpa Glacier, Khumbu Himal, Nepal. Debris-Covered Glaciers, IAHS 264: Bolch T., Buchroithner M. F., Pieczonka T. and Kunert A. (2008a). Planimetric and volumetric Glacier changes in Khumbu Himalaya since 1962 using Corona, Landsat TM and ASTER data. Journal of Glaciology 54(187): 9. Bolch, T., Buchroithner M.F., Peters J., Baessler M.and Bajracharya S. (2008b). Identification of glacier motion and potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Mt. Everest region/nepal using spaceborne imagery. Natur. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (NHESS), 8(6), Ekwurzel, B. (2006): Expected impacts of climate change in the U.S. Urban leaders initiative on infrastructure, Land use and climate change, Center of Clear Air Policy and Union of Concerned Scientists. Fujita K., Sakai A., Nuimura T., Yamaguchi S. and R. Sharma (2009): Recent changes Imja glacial lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery.environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) (7pp). Fujita, K., Kadota T., Rana B., Kayastha R.B. and Ageta Y. (2001): Shrinkage of Glacier AX010 in Shorong region, Nepal Himalayas in the 1990s. Bull. Glaciol. Res., 18, Gurung D.R., Bajracharya S.R., Shrestha B.R. and Pradhan P. (2009): Wi-Fi network at Imja Tsho (lake), Nepal: an Early Warning System for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood. ICIMOD (press). Hambrey, M.J., Quincey D.J., Glasser N.F., Reynolds J.M., Richardson S.J. and Clemmens S. (2008): Sedimentological, geomorphological and dynamic context of debris-mantled glaciers, Mount Everest (Sagarmatha) region, Nepal. Quat. Sci. Rev., 27(25 26), Houghton, J.T. and 7 others, eds. (2001): Climate change 2001: the scientific basis, Cambridge, etc., Cambridge University Press. IPCC. (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assess. Report) 100

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