Managing Disasters, Sustaining Development in the Hindu Kush Himalayas

Transcription

1 Managing Disasters, Sustaining Development in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Aditi Mukherji Theme Leader, Water and Air ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

2 A Regional Intergovernmental Organisation is Born UNESCO facilitates the establishment of ICIMOD First ICIMOD Board of Governors Meet August 1983, Kathmandu Regional Charter of HKH Eight Countries and Act of Parliament of Nepal for Headquarter Agreement

3 Vision, Mission, and Governance Vision Men, women, and children of the Hindu Kush Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a healthy mountain environment. Mission To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge and regional cooperation. Governance Board of Governors (Government representatives and independent members) Programme Advisory Committee ICIMOD Support Group Finance Committee ICIMOD in India Focal Ministry: Ministry of Environment and Forests Nodal Institution: G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development Partners: 32 (2012)

4 The Himalayas are prone to disasters International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

5 Disaster statistics from Hindu Kush Himalayan region Cumulative disaster event The region has had an average of 76 disaster events each year. On average, more than 36,000 people are killed and 178 million affected each year due to natural disasters in the region. Source: EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

6 One-third of these disasters are floods Source: IndiaLookUp.in Transboundary floods - shared vulnerability across national borders

7 Types of floods in the HKH region Types of Floods Riverine Floods Flash floods result in higher mortality rates Flash Floods - Landslide dam outburst floods - Glacial lake outburst floods - Rapid snow melt - Cloud bursts

8 Floods are often transboundary and data sharing mechanisms don t exist Transboundary rivers shared vulnerability across national borders Lack of exchange of real-time data especially across national boundaries inadequate lead time Diversity of technical, scientific, and institutional know-how Some bilateral agreements/treaties exist Opportunity for regional cooperation to prevent disasters

9 Transboundary floods have greater impact on lives and property But transboundary cooperation and data sharing can make a difference Globally, 10% of all floods are transboundary, and they cause over 30% of all flood casualties and account for close to 60% of all those displaced by floods. Bakker, 2006

10 Landslide dam outburst leads to floods: Yigong, China India and China did not have data sharing agreement in place in April 2000: Landslide blocked the Yigong River, a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) River The outburst occurred on 10 June 2000 and created a huge flash flood of up to 1.26x10 5 m 3 /s Extensive damage, but no casualties in China In India, heavy casualities - 30 dead - >100 missing - >50,000 homeless - damage of USD 22.9 million

11 Pareechu landslide dam outburst in 2004 when there was a data sharing agreement in place 1 month after landslide 2.5 months after landslide After landslide dam outburst Data sharing policy developed between India and China in June 2004: Landslide blocked the Pareechu River in Tibet, the upper reaches of Sutlej River Chinese authorities communicated to their Indian counterparts well before and when the breach occured 56 villages along the Sutlej from Kinnaur to Bilaspur were identified at risk The dam burst on 25 June 2005 The direct cost of flood damage was an estimated USD 200 million There were no human casualties because of prior communication from the upstream country

12 Why should we care about disasters in the HKH? International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

13 HKH is the source of ten major river basins 210 million people in the HKH 1.3 billion people downstream 3 billion people benefit from food and energy

14 Supports extensive irrigation systems International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

15 Huge hydropower potential >300,000 MW

16 Basins support some of the most populated areas on the globe

17 Home to 4 of the 34 Global Biodiversity Hotspots, 60 Eco-regions, 488 Pas, and 330 Important Bird Areas

18 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

19 Snow cover over parts of the Himalaya has been decreasing 1973 (photo ICIMOD archive) 2011 (photo Panday) Mt. Machhapuchhare, Nepal, 6993 meters

20 Rikha Samba Glacier, Hidden Valley Lower Mustang GEN Google Earth Glacier terminus in 1978 Approximate annual retreat rate in 34 years is about 10 m/y 350 m

21 Retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes, e.g. Imja Lake in Nepal 1956 photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Fritz Muller; courtesy of Jack Ives) 2006 photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger courtesy of Alton C Byers) Pradeep K Mool

22 Imja Lake growing in size over the years Imja developed as supra ponds in late 50s. The seven supra ponds existed on the glacier surface in late 50s. Before 80s was amalgamation phase- merging of supra ponds. Late 80s are rapid expansion period towards the glacier terminus. The lake is still expanding. Pradeep K Mool Expansion of Imja Oct 2010

23 GLOFs What are GLOFs? When glaciers retreat, they leave behind glacial lakes impounded by moraines Moraines are not stable structures and when they topple, immense volume of water from glacial lakes gets released Causing devastating floods

24 Why should we care about GLOFs? Because most hydropower plants are downstream of potentially dangerous glacial lakes Example: Koshi Basin About 56 GLOF events in the HKH region to date Potentially dangerous lakes located upstream of settlements and major infrastructure Transboundary GLOFs: 10 of 24 GLOF events in Nepal originated in China Transboundary approach is crucial to address and manage the issue

25 Past GLOF events in Nepal: Dig Tsho event in 1985 Dig Tsho Lake burst out in 4 August 1985 releasing 8 million m 3 of water with 500m 3 /s discharge at breach damaging Thame Small Hydel Project, bridges, trekking trails, villages, and agricultural lands as well as the loss of human live and other infrastructure. along the flood path of GLOF Site of civil structures of Namche (Thame)) Small Hydel Project, which were destroyed by the Dig Tsho GLOF Pradeep K Mool

26 Zhangzangbo GLOF (1964, 1981), Poiqu/Sun Koshi basin, China/Nepal Zhangzangbo-cho lake in Tibet burst twice in 1964 and The burst discharge in 1981 was 1,600 m 3 /s The amount of released water was about 19x10 6 m 3 This GLOF caused enormous damage in Nepal, which included complete destruction of the Friendship Bridge and two other bridges, extensive damage to roads and the diversion wire of Sun Koshi Hydropower Project The impact of any future GLOF event is likely to be much larger than that of previous events in 1964 and 1981

27 What can we do? Map Glacial Lakes as a first step Basin Code Total Number Total Area(km 2 ) No. % Area % Amu Darya Am Brahmaputra Br Ganges Ga Pradeep K Mool Indus In Irrawaddy Ir Total

28 Rank lakes based on physical and socioeconomic criteria as a second step Pradeep K Mool

29 List of potentially critical glacial lakes in Nepal identified in the 2010 study and their priority category (ICIMOD, 2011) Note: Categories among the 21 Prioritized Potentially Dangerous Lakes I. six of these were considered potentially dangerous lakes requiring detailed field investigation and mapping, II.four potentially dangerous lakes which require close monitoring with reconnaissance field surveys, and III.another eleven lakes which require periodic observation No. Name of the lake Lake ID Number of 2009 Study 1 Tsho Rolpa kota_gl_ Lower Barun koar_gl_ Imja kodu_gl_ Lumding kodu_gl_ West Chamjang kodu_gl_0242 Category 6 Thulagi (Dona) gamar_gl_0018 I 7 Nagma kotr_gl_0133 II 8 Hungu kodu_gl_0241 II 9 Tam Pokhari kodu_gl_0193 II 10 Hungu kodu_gl_0229 II 11 kotr_gl_0191* III 12 gaka_gl_0004* III 13 Barun koar_gl_0012* III 14 kodu_gl_0238* III 15 (Q) gabu_gl_0009 III 16 (H) kodu_gl_0220 III 17 koar_gl_0016* III 18 (S) gaka_gl_0008 III 19 (B) kotr_gl_0111 III 20 East Hungu 2 kodu_gl_0239 III 21 Kaligandaki (T) Pradeep gaka_gl_0022 K Mool III *Not listed as potentially dangerous in the 2001 inventory I I I I I

30 Quantify Potential GLOF Risk on human population Glacial Lakes Imja Tsho Rolpa Thulagi Sunkoshi Average Flood Scenario Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Household Population Houses Land (ha) Pradeep K Mool

31 And infrastructure Dudhkoshi Tamakoshi (Tsho Marsyandi Bhotekoshi Glacial lake (Imja) Rolpa) (Thulagi) (Lumu Chimi) Average Infrastructure Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Schools (no) Office building (no) Temple (no) Trail (km) Road (km) Embankment (km) Bridge (no) Hydropower plant (no) Irrigation canal (km) Water mill (no) Pradeep K 3 Mool 6 Transmission line (km)

32 How to manage GLOF Risk? GLOFs are risks, but with proper management, they can be turned into resources Pradeep K Mool

33 Glacial Lakes and Associated Floods in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and GLOF of the HKH region Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF risk assessment. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and GLOF of Nepal ICIMOD (2011) Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal. Kathmandu: ICIMOD Pradeep K Mool

34 Take home messages HKH is a data scarce region, making prediction even more tricky that it already is! Much of weather events are transboundary, so urgent need for transboundary cooperation and data sharing! Not all gloom and doom, risks like those of GLOF can be managed by bringing together science and policy together!

35 Thank you