Dean, Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University

Transcription

1 International Symposium Realizing Low Carbon Cities: Bridging Science and Policy 17 February 2009 Yoshitsugu Hayashi Dean, Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 1

2 1. Automobilization Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 2

3 School boy waiting for a bus at 4:30 am in a Suburb of Bangkok Bangkok k Post 4 Sept 1993 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 3

4 Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok Photo by Hayashi(1993) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 4

5 Grid Lock in Bangkok Photo by Hayashi (1993) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 5

6 Bike Taxi is more useful in Bangkok Photo by Hayashi (1993) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 6

7 Neglecting Railways in Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi (1994) 7

8 Market in Station Mekron Line, Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi (1994) 8

9 Income vs. Car Ownership 0 persons s Cars per 1, London Nagoya Tokyo Bangkok Seoul 95 Singapore Shanghai Hong Kong 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50, Per Capita Income in US$ (1995) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 9

10 Car Ownership vs. Road Supply ar ) per ca. car (m/pas er ssenger car) road senge Leng gth of length (m of road / pass per p )Nagoyag y Tokyo 1985 London Bangkok Passenger passenger car car per 1000 people persons Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 10

11 Traffic Condition vs. Energy Consumption (*TOE/km) ( 000/12hr) (litre/10km) (km/hr) Greater London Tokyo Nagoya Bangkok Met. Area 17.0 Energy consumption Sectional volume Consumption Rate Speed Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 11

12 2. Urbanization Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 12

13 Change in Built-up Areas Tokyo Nagoya London Bangkok 0 50 km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 13

14 Population Density (1988) Tokyo max. 15, 40 0 Nagoya max. 1 7, London Bangkok max. 1 1, max. 4 2, Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 14

15 Urbanization Stages (1) Urbanization (2) Suburbanization (3) Disurbanization (4) Reurbanization Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 15

16 Urbanization Progress 40 NMR 20 yr. % cha ange of po op. in the ring-core London LMR 80 yr. Tokyo Suburbanization TMR 15 yr. Nagoya Suburb. BMR 10 yr. Bangkok De-surb. Suburb Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 16

17 Motorization, Urban Sprawl and Environmental Problems Income increment Higher Car-Ownership Modal Shift to Car Local Environmental Problems IPT Lack of Rail Supply Increase In Car Demand Emission i Rate CO,NO X,PM,,, Economic Higher Cost Development of Infrastructure Supply Lack of Road Supply Congestion Higher Energy Consumption Emission Rate Urbanization Spread of Built-up up Area Longer Trips CO 2 Global l Environmental Problems Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17

18 Monitoring the Mechanism GDP/capita Car ownership Urban Radius Year 2) Suburbanization Year 1) Economic Growth Per capita Energy Consumption Urban Radius 5) Energy Consumption Road dlength/ car GDP/capita 3) Motorization Car Ownership 4) Demand /Supply Pollution Year 6) Environmental Load Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 18

19 3. Sub-urbanization urbanization De-urbanization Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 19

20 Land Use in Letchworth (1) 成熟時代のインフラストラクチャー Y. Hayashi Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 20

21 Landscape of Letchworth (2) Y. Hayashi Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 21

22 Land Use in a Suburb of Nagoya 成熟時代のインフラストラクチャー Y. Hayashi Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 22

23 Expansion of DID in a Local City (population 100 thousand) (population 100 thousand) ha 380ha ha 950ha 0 3km Y. Hayashi Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University (source: National Census) 23

24 As a result of interaction between automobilization and sprawl Urban Space Today Decline in inner-city Expansion of residences into areas with high risk of disaster Lowering of QOL Increase in maintenance cost of unnecessary infrastructure Deterioration of land scape and loss of identity Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 24

25 4. Dual Land Use Strategies t toward Low Carbon City 4-1. De-suburbanization Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 25

26 Retreat from hazardous areas >> Re-concentration ti in areas with higher h value 家家家 Reconcentrate Reconcentrate (Social Value) - (Social Hazard) Equivalent level of water Retreat Social- Value Hazard Level 家家家 To be maintained area To be retreated area Social-Hazard =To be evacuated=high equivalent level of water Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 26

27 Compact City Type of Nagoya City centre Kamiotai Heiandori Kamejima Nagoya Hatta Stn. Kamimaezu Ohzone Chikusa Motoyama Tsurumai Kanayama Type 0 : B.A.U. (Business As Usual) Imaike Type 1 : Gokiso Centralization to Yagoto city centre Horita Aratamabashi Type 2 : Centralization to City centre Sub-centre city centre & sub- 0 Railway Subway 5km Station centres Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 27

28 Population Landscape (1995) 1,000 CBD Rail- Interchanges persons./ha Total: 2.17mil. CBD: 73thou. Rail Interchanges: 302thou Kilometers Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 28

29 Re-concentration in CBD (Type1 in 2020) 1,000 CBD Rail- Interchanges persons./ha Total: 2.17mil. CBD: 73thou. 215thou. ( 3) Kilometers Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 29

30 Daily Traffic volume ( ) 交通量 ( トレンド ):2016_ ,000-1,090, , ,000 50, , ,000-50, , km キロメーター B.A.U. (Type 0) No. of total trips: 286 mil. Total trip length: 359 mil.*km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 30

31 Daily Traffic volume ( ) 交通量 ( 集中立地 ):2016_ ,000-1,010, , ,000 50, , ,000-50, , キロメーター Re-concentration in C.B.D. (Type 1) No. of total trips:172 mil. (-40%) Total trip length: 211mil. *km (-41%) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 31

32 Reduction in NOx Concentration BAU:2016~2020 Concentrated:2016~ ,943 [t 5years] 80,060 [t 5yeas] 38.4% Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 32

33 4. Dual Land Use Strategies toward Low Carbon City 4-2. Social Capitalization of Built Up Areas Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 33

34 Change in Life Style Time spent Legend Leisure School Labour Learning Non-working 1965(Japan) 1840(UK) 0 40 Age 30 years 160 years 1995(Japan) 2000(UK) 0 School Leasure Leaning Labour Nonworking 80 Time Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 34

35 Goal Economy) Higher QOL Endogenous Condition <Domestic> <Int l> Low birth rate Growth of Asia Aging Globalization IT IT (Ecology) A. Economic o c B. Oppotunity C.Amenity D. Security Oppotunity for Living Safety Service Opptunity for Housing Income District Landscape Education/Culture Accessibility to Health/Medical Agglomeration of Nature of Region Care Industries/Popul ation Identity of Region Shopping/Service Comfortability /Punctuarity of Amusement/Trav travel el Risk of Natural disater Risk of Building / Facility diksaster Risk of Chemical Pollution Risk of Traffic Accident ResourcePreservatio n Criminal Rate E. Environment Sustainability Burden from Industry Burden from Domestic Burden from Transport Heat Island Time for leisure/cultural life Noise Yoshitsugu Social Hayashi, Capital Nagoya University? 35

36 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 36

37 Nagoya (Izumi 1-chome, near City Centre) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 成熟時代のインフラストラクチャー Y. 37 Haya

38 Paris (near Madraine Cathedoral) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 成熟時代のインフラストラクチャー Y. 38 Haya

39 London (Kings Road) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 39

40 5. Socio-economic Change in Background -Aging Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 40

41 Demographic Change in Germany (Growing Maturering Shrinking) many youths, impacts of wars the pill break, few youths, many few old people and crises ageing population old people Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Source : Prof. Gabi Troeger- W i 41

42 Japan 男女男女男 Female Male Female Male Female Male [million] Reference: The National Institute of Population Yoshitsugu and Hayashi, Social Security Nagoya University Research 42

43 Matured Economy x75 (9% p.a.)? x1.64 (1% p.a.) GDP (nominal) GDP (deflated base in 1950) year Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 43

44 China Female Male Female Male Female Male [million] Reference: Population Database Yoshitsugu (United Hayashi, Nagoya Nations University ) 44

45 Change of Fertility Rate ate tility ra China India Korea, Rep United Kingdom Viet Nam Germany Japan Thailand United States otal fert To ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 GDP per capita [US $] Reference: Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Earth Nagoya University Trends (World Resource Institute) 45

46 Messages Aging g Society High cost and low productivity No regret development and growth Stage of Socio-economic Development Change in recognition of QOL Constraints Global l warming and climate change Low Carbon City Financial constraint Integrated way of thinking and strategies Integration ti of technology and policy Redesigning Cities Based on Social Value and Social Cost Smart Shrinking Selected places to live and integrated use of infrastructure Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 46

47 Urban Transport and The Environment - An International Perspective - <Japanese> <English>

48 Strategies Transport Demand Traffic Flow Emitting Resource Instrument CUTE Matrix Technology: Infrastructure Vehicle/Fuel Regulation Management Control Information Advice Awareness Communi. Economy Pricing Taxation development RReduce need to travel Reduce car use Improve alternative modes Improve road network Improve vehicles and fuels RT5:Strategies for realizing the balance between socio-economic needs and the environment T5:Choic Transit- Community Rail&bus IMTS CO2 Oriented- roads infrastructure New P&R facilities countermeasures Development New public transport New roads HV, LEV, Biomass Urban vehicles fuels Planning GTL RT4 RT3 RT3 6 RT4 RT1 2 7 Suburbanization Access permits Bus priorities Traffic Best mixture of Parking Service management engine and fuel control restrictions improvement with Urban traffic control Application of ITS Traffic calming ITS ce of the policy th t and environmen hat realizes the b ntal preservation balance between n n economic RT4 6 RT4 6 RT3 4 6 RT3 6 RT1 2 7 Revitalization Awareness Real time public Traffic information Consciousness for of Stations campaigns transport information provision LEV Popularization scenario of LEV RT4 RT4 6 RT3 4 6 RT3 6 RT1 2 Land Taxes Congestion Car sharing Parking charges Fuel taxes 7 charge Fare policy Green taxes Parking charge Support for LEV RT4 RT4 RT3 6 RT4 RT