Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi. President of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)

Transcription

1 17 November 2013 Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi President of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society) Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 1

2 Transport as 1) Causer of CO 2 and pollution 2) Supporter for CO 2 and pollution causers (industries) 3) Victim of climate change 4) Barrier for sustainability Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 2

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4 Cars per 1,000 inhabitants Car Ownership ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per Capita US$ (1995) 2012/9/24 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, SUSTRAC Nagoya Nagoya University Univ. 4 Yoshi Hayashi, Sep Bangkok 02 Seoul Beijing London Shanghai 95 Hong kong Singapore (CA) Nagoya Tokyo

5 Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Photo by Hayashi(1993) 5

6 Changes in Built-up Areas Tokyo Nagoya 0 50 km London Bangkok Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 6

7 Billion Vehicles Upgrading Transport to a Key Sector Car Ownership Trend Africa Latin America Middle East Other Asia India China Eastan Europe Russia OECD ASIA Australia and NZ OECD Europe Anglo America Transport 22% Transport Other Sectors 78% Other Sectors?% Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 7

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9 Serious Air Pollution Jointly by Industry, Household and Traffic Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 9

10 Air Pollution Blowing Housings Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 10

11 Emissions from Motorways Occupied by Lorries as a Result of Road Transport based Industrial Development Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 11

12 CO2 emissions from transport (Million ton) CO2 Emission Growth in Transport from Economic Growth CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1960 US 136 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 1992 China Japan 54 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 2010 GDP (trillion US $) EU 76 CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in CO2 Mt/ trillion US$ in 2010 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 12

13 China vs Japan 2011 Tonnage China 2011 Total ton-km US 1998 Japan US 2003 GDP [tril.us$] CO 2 [bil.t-co 2 ] Road ton-km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 13

14 Change the slope by AVOID/SHIFT/IMPORVE AVOID Efficient Supply Chain Tonnage 2011 China 2011 Total ton-km Japan GDP [tril.us$] US US 2003 CO 2 [bil.t-co 2 ] SHIFT Shift to rail Road ton-km Energy Efficient Vehicles IMPROVE Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 14

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16 Strategies Means Technologies AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Transport oriented development (TOD) Poly-centric development Efficient freight distribution Railways and BRT Improvement Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians Development of electric vehicles Development of biomass fuel "Smart grid development Regulations Land-use control Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes Local circulating service Control on driving and parking Emissions standards Top-runner" approach Information Telecommuting Online shopping Lifestyle change ITS public transport operation "Eco-driving" ITS traffic-flow management Vehicle performance labeling Economy Subsidies and taxation to location Congestion Charge Cooperative fare systems Value capture Fuel tax/carbon tax Preferential taxation to lowemissions vehicles Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 16

17 Average speed (km/hr) Trend of Traffic Congestion in Bangkok 1990s (Before MRT Development) Introduction 2000s (After MRT Development) Photo by Hayashi, 1993 Trend of Traffic Congestion Photo by Hayashi, Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17

18 1 st Leapfrog Thammasat Rangsit Maha Chai (80.8 km) Lam Luk Ka Bang Pu (66.5 km) Bang Yai Rat Burana (42.8 km) Salaya Hau Mak (54 km) Bang Sue Tha Phra Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km) Khae Rai Min Buri (36 km) Lat Phrao Sam Rong (30.4 km) Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center Mon Buri (32.5 km) Yod se Bang Wa (15.5 km) 10 lines, total distance 464 km Success in 3 projects More public support Government policy shift to Railway (2011) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 18

19 Bangkok Airport Link: Rolling Stock SA Express (4-car train) SA City Line (3-car train) Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 19

20 1 st Leapfrog MRTA Projects Customs 0.61% Cost (mil. Baht) Blue Line extension 82, Green Line extension 100, Pink Line 58, Orange Line 115, Yellow Line 57, Railway 82.29% 2.2 trillion Baht Road 14.47% Port 1.49% Disbursement 0.51% Source: Thailand 2020 (2013), Ministry of Transport Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 20

21 - Methodology for MRV in NAMAs- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 21

22 - Urban Transport- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 22

23 Urban Vision CO 2 Bangkok CO 2 Per Capita from transport 3.5t (2007) Bus 49% Car 51% Bus 38% Rail 5% Car 57% BAU Leap-Frog Rail Car Master Plan in 2020 Heavy Congestion BTS Sky Train 20km MRT Development 81km 10lines total 464km Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 23

24 Urban Policy Roadmap Mitigation CO2 emissions km 2 Trip Frequency GDP = Built-up Area AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Travel Demand (Travel Distance) Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Km/ km ,500 1,000 0,500 0,000 GDP Car/1000pop Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Car Dependency (Modal Split) GDP Tokyo 23 Car Ownership Bangkok MA Railway Network intensity Energy Efficiency (CO 2 Emission / km) Fossil Fuel Share Fuel Efficiency Traffic Speed GDP Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 24

25 1 st Leapfrog 凡例 凡例 legend! kogyo_yamashita! kogyo_yamashita car rail bus truck! kogyo_yamashita Industry rail2010_2 kogyo_yamashita Present expressway rail2010_2 MRT zokusei expressway Inner-ring 1 zokusei rail2010_2 Without MRT 2Outer-ring expressway 1 2 zokusei 1 2 CO 2 :+10.7% Speed:-16.3% Without Inner-ring Roads CO 2 :+1.1% Speed:-8.0% Without Outer-ring Roads CO 2 :+0.8% Speed:-41.7% 15.2km/h 12.7km/h 14.0km/h 8.9km/h CO₂ Emissions (Mt-CO₂/year) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 25

26 Urban Policy Roadmap km MRT development timing scenario in Bangkok 1Early development 2Later development MRT Master Plan Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations Pop/km % 26% Car ownership growth calming by rail-oriented travel habit Car/1000pop Changes from Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University % 44% 26

27 Urban Policy Roadmap The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities CO 2 -emission reduction Million tons 40% 25% 31% 24% AVOID Land-use control (3% less annual expansion of built-up area) SHIFT 4,568 km MRT development, (6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city) 23,337km BRT development (23cities, Ave.:1015km/city) IMPROVE Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%) Emission intensity of power generation (2005:1269g-CO 2 /kwh 2050: 546g-CO 27 2 /kwh)

28 - Inter-regional Transport- Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 28

29 Interregional Vision Proposing Vision: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs GMS (Greater Mekong Sub region) Kyaukpyu Port Yangon Bangkok Kunming Hanoi Road(Economic Corridor) Phnom Penh Shanghai Local Cities on HSR Megacities on HSR Light Industry Advanced Industry & Commercial Heavy Industry Singapore Cities on Local Freight Rail AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Industrial Rail-Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Low-carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels 29

30 Interregional Vision Efficient Industrial Supply Chain Impact analysis to reduce CO 2 emissions by plant location change Current Industrial location(bangkok) Scenario 1: Priority to resilience for disaster CO 2 emission -3% Bangkok 100km Port Present Scenario 1 Proximity location of Assembly plant and supplier Scenario 2: Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia) Bangkok 530km Need of improving Production process +25% CO 2 emission Production Process Scenario 3: Priority to larger economic market(indian) To India Route 2 (2,000km) Route 1 (5,000km) Ho chi Minh City Present Yoshitsugu Scenario Hayashi, 2 Nagoya University Via Myanmar From Thailand Via Singapore -33% CO 2 emission Sea only Integrated transport Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck 30

31 Interregional Vision Case Study: Bangkok Hanoi Hanoi (Vetnum) (with / without) 1,000km Bangkok (Thailand) Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO 2 emission 30% time Saving With railway Railway 91.7% 40% CO 2 mitigation 30% time saving Without railway Truck 14.2% Maritime Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 31

32 Interregional Policy Roadmap CO2-emission reduction AVOID SHIFT New GMS-wide HSR network is necessary( km) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 32

33 Key Massages Transport is causer as well as victim of climate change Simultaneous achievement of Sustainability + Resilience Co-benefits We are developing robust instruments for MRV in NAMA allowing more transport projects Good signs to reverse common sense from road to rail Bangkok (Rail: 0% in 90 s 82% now) Transport can trigger innovations in styles of production(efficiency) and life (Sufficiency) Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 33

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