Global Market Forecast

Transcription

1 Presentation by: Bob Lange SVP, Market & Product Strategy Global Market Forecast Drivers for Growth

2 Topics The Market Today & forecast (GMF) Airbus product response

3 Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis WTC Attack SARS Financial Crisis % % growth through multiple crises over the last ten years Source: ICAO, Airbus

4 Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth 8% World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year) December passenger traffic +7.4% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Real GDP Passenger traffic (ASKs) -4% JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1M Q2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1 MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1 MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1 MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N JQ1 MQ2 M JQ3S Q4 N World air transport strongly recovering after 12 months of slower growth Source: IHS Global Insight (December 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

5 A two-speed world Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth 10% 8% 6% 4% Real GDP growth (%) Emerging economies* History Forecast 2% 0% -2% -4% Mature economies emerging economies. Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

6 Passenger traffic growth varies by region 16% ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%) Emerging markets traffic +12.8% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Western Europe traffic +5.3% US traffic +3.7% -8% -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe catching up Source: OAG, Airbus

7 Emerging economies are driving future growth Today 28% World GDP 69% World population (4.9 billion people) 39% World passenger trips 39% World fleet-inservice % World GDP 67% World population (5.7 billion people) 54% World passenger trips 51% World fleetin-service Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries) Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

8 Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe January 2014 Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries) Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

9 More new fliers from the emerging markets Trips* per capita over GDP per capita 10 Trips* per capita India trips per capita China trips per capita China.26 trips per capita India.05 trips per capita United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita USA 1.53 trips per capita 1/5 2/3 of the population of the of population the emerging of the countries emerging will countries take a trip took a a year trip in in ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , GDP per capita ($US) Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus * Passengers originating from respective country

10 Only 40% of today s network was there 20 years ago Number of airport pairs served 25,000 New between 1992 and ,000 15,000 12,494 10,000-6,041 20,276 5,000 13,823 Dropped between 1992 and Source: OAG

11 January 2014 GMF 2013 new routes The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032

12 42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day January cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers 42 Aviation Megacities 0.8M Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities traffic > daily long-haul passengers > daily long-haul passengers > daily long-haul passengers 93% of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 42 cities Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres Traffic as of month of September; Source: GMF 2013 Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

13 and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities 2032 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers 89 Aviation Megacities 2.2M Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities > daily long-haul passengers > daily long-haul passengers > daily long-haul passengers 99% of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 90 cities Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres Traffic as of month of September. Source: GMF 2013 Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

14 A380s link the worlds Aviation Mega-cities Top 15 A380 airports ranked by weekly departures 220 Weekly departures Thai Qantas Lufthansa Emirates Air France Singapore Malaysia Korean China Southern Over 150 flights per day carrying more than 1.5m passengers per month A380 w eekly departures: August Source: OAG

15 Most routes within Asia-Pacific increased their number of daily frequencies in the last 20-years January 2014 Routes with increases in frequencies 2013 vs Number of airport-pairs with increases in daily aircraft movements Sector length(nautical miles) Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts Note: Only routes that have remained in operation in 1993 and 2013

16 973 of the 1,496 airport-pairs operated in Asia-Pacific have increased their average capacity January 2014 Routes with increases in capacity 2013 vs Number of airport-pairs with increases in average capacity per flight Sector length (nautical miles) Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts Note: Only routes that have remained in operation in 1993 and 2013

17 Airlines are choosing larger single-aisle aircraft Single-aisle backlog by type 210-seater 175-seater 150-seater 125-seater 100-seater A321 & A320 & A318/A319 & 737-6/-7 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% GMF 2013* Backlog *- Demand for first 10 years ending in 2022 Source: Ascend (October 31 st of each year), Airbus

18 Airbus Global Market Forecast A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast Market Research Forecast Trends Analysis Consumer & Travel Surveys Tourism Migration Traffic flows Passenger demands Airlines Business Models Operations Competition Geopolitics Governments & Regulators Liberalization/ deregulation Investments and constraints Geopolitics Traffic Economics and Econometrics Fuel costs Yields Load Factors Trade and Value of Goods Network Development Route planning Origin and destination demand Population centers Fleet trends Aircraft economics Utilization Fleet age and retirements

19 Aviation shapes the world Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, growth and 2032 volume Traffic growth (20-year CAGR) Traffic volume (monthly O&D PAX) 0% 13% mio

20 Traffic will double in the next 15 years World annual RPK (trillion) 16 ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF % % % Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years Source: ICAO, Airbus

21 Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032 RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 % of 2012 world RPK 20-year growth % of 2032 world RPK Asia-Pacific 2012 traffic traffic 29% 5.5% 34% Europe 26% 3.8% 22% North America 25% 3.0% 18% Middle East 8% 7.1% 12% Latin America CIS 20-year world annual traffic growth 4.7% 5% 4% 6.0% 5.8% 7% 4% Africa 3% 5.1% 3%

22 Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft Fleet in service evolution; , % per annum 36,556 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 17,739 18,817 Growth New aircraft 29,226 15,000 10,000 10,409 Replaced 5, ,330 Beginning Stay in service & Converted Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes

23 Single-aisle: 69% of units; Twin-aisle: 43% of value 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000 16,000 12,000 29,226 New Deliveries GMF 2012 GMF ,000 4,000 0 Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters Large aircraft & Large freighters % units % value 69% 17% 8% 6% 41% 26% 17% 16% Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus

24 20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft 20,242 single-aisle aircraft +724 aircraft over GMF ,273 twin-aisle aircraft +299 aircraft 1,711 very large aircraft +5 aircraft 29,226 new aircraft +1,028 aircraft Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Market value of $4.4 trillion Source: Airbus GMF

25 Higher expectations and more competition Safe Growth Fuel price Regulations Simple Affordable Eco-efficient Competition & Profitable

26 Airbus products meeting customer needs A320ceo & neo family A320 family nearly ~10,200 sold, ~5,900 delivered A320neo >2,600 sold to 48 customers 15% lower fuel burn more range A330 A330 > 1,300 aircraft sold >800 sold since 787 launch More than 1,000 delivered Repeat ordering, particularly Asia Continuous product improvement 242t MTOW A350XWB A380 Offers greatest cabin flexibility Quiet inside and out Efficiently connecting mega-cities Minimising seat costs, maximising comfort A380 effect, load factors & yield = profit >300 sold, >120 delivered A350XWB nearly >800 aircraft, 39 customers Family ideally sized for market today & tomorrow Cross section = comfort Answers medium & long range needs Data to end 2013

27 A350XWB Competitive Landscape X (384 to 417 seats)* 400 A (364 seats) Seat Capacity A (312 seats) 777-8X (329 to 355 seats)* (334 seats) 250 A (271 seats) (280 seats) (246 seats) 200 Airbus Boeing A350 faces two families alone

28 Innovation - a good start to the 21 st Century 2007 to 2015 Airbus A350 XWB - 53% composite materials - Latest generation IFE and connectivity - Development of screen displays - Integrated Modular Avionics - 2 H / 2 E architecture - Full use of a Digital Mock-Up 2007 Dates represent EIS Airbus A % composite materials - Quietest cabin in the sky - New flight deck functions - Integrated Modular Avionics - 2 H / 2 E architecture - Full use of a Digital Mock-Up Airbus A320neo - Sharklet wingtip design for improved aerodynamics - Step change engine technology development

29 Thank you