Urban Transport and the Australian Mega-City Can we cope?

Transcription

1 Informa Population Australia 2050 Inaugural Summit Sydney June, 2010 Urban Transport and the Australian Mega-City Can we cope? Dr Garry Glazebrook University of Technology, Sydney

2 Contents Australia s s Urban Transport Challenge Can we reduce car dependence? What do the public want? How are our cities responding?

3 Australia s s Urban Transport Challenge ABS forecasts an extra 10 million people in our capital cities by 2056, by which time they will have 67% of national population (63% now) 8 Capital City Population Projections (ABS Released4/9/2008) Population (million) Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin ACT

4 Key Issues Our cities therefore face challenges of Congestion Peak oil Climate change Health Liveability

5 Congestion BTRE estimates the total avoidable costs of congestion in our major capitals were $9.4 billion in 2005, expected to more than double to $20.4 billion by 2020 under a business as usual future. Avoidable Congestion costs per km Cents / km Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth

6 Peak Oil Global Conventional oil supplies are peaking Offshore and tar sands have major environmental risks

7 Peak oil Latest IEA medium term supply outlook more optimistic than previous year s s forecast with most growth in natural gas liquids and OPEC oil. But incremental growth in supply expected to be almost zero in 2012 and 2013.

8 Peak Oil Chinese demand is rising rapidly Combined with peaking of supply, this means rising prices and even possible rationing in the future

9 Climate Change Summer Sea Ice volume in Arctic: 17,600 cubic km in September ,800 cubic km in September 2009 (67% loss) Arctic could be ice free in summer 2025 years if trend was linear But loss is accelerating. Arctic could be ice-free by Sept 2015 Only one of many feedback loops _last=5&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=05&year1=2010&year2=2010 &base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

10 Climate Change Potatoes growing on Greenland a Melted ice on Greenland s s ice sheet new crop emerging with warmer disappears down a Mouolon temperatures Source: True Colours: The Changing Face of Greenland, National Geographic, June 2010

11 Health 1,450 people killed and 30,000 seriously injured on Australia s s roads each year. Total cost over $10 b annually (1) Obesity costs Australia $21 b annually (2). Sedentary lifestyles and lack of exercise reinforced by car-dependent cities Air pollution in Sydney alone valued at $0.6 - $1.5 b annually (3) Cars are major contributors to the above costs Source: Wikipedia Sources: (1): Moving People,, BIC, ARA and UITP, 2010 (2): Access Economics (2006): The economic costs of Obesity Report to Diabetes Australia (3): BITRE (2005): :Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs, Working Paper 63, Canberra ACT.

12 Livability The Cities We Need (1) Report Card for Successful Cities As a community we should plan in a careful and coordinated way, using the city s s network aspects to our advantage, but leaving room for adaptation and spontaneity. We should find a vibrant balance between design and randomness where city life can prosper. (1) Source: Jane Frances-Kelly (2010): The Cities We Need.. Grattan Institute, 38_the_cities_we_need.pdf? Resilient food, water & waste? Affordable & diverse housing? Good health (including mental)? Personal & public safety? Economic & Educ Opportunities? Accessible & reliable transport? Good quality telecommunications? Social capital & belonging? Diversity of population & places? Health of the broader environment? Beautiful places? Inclusive and adaptable decision- making?

13 But just how mega are our cities?

14 Is population the problem? By 2050 Sydney and Melbourne will have fewer people than Hong Kong has now, have only around 1/3rd the current population of Tokyo, Seoul, or Los Angeles We are an underpopulated country in global terms If Hong Kong had Australia s s average population density it would have only 1280 people Hong Kong Nullarbor Plain

15 Its how cities are organised.. Sydney s s per capita transport energy use and GHG are lower than any other capital city, and lower than smaller cities like Newcastle, Wollongong and Canberra, but higher than European and Asian cities Sustainable transport is more about how cities organise their land use and transport than about their actual population Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions Kg CO 2 per capita pa Developing Asian Cities Average Wealthy Asian Cities Average European Cities Average Sydney Australian Cities Average Canadian Cities Average US Cities Average

16 We will become more urban but this need not be a bad thing East Perth

17 Vancouver

18 BUT urban transport is a wicked problem Business as Usual More people Alternative Model More Congestion More roads Pricing & Invest More public transport, cycling Less Cars and Driving More cars and driving Lower densities Planning Higher densities Managed Congestion Less viable public transport Less road expansion

19 So can we reduce car dependency in our cities?

20 Emerging Trends Car usage has begun to plateau in many developed economy cities Growth pa in Pass-Kms in Sydney Cars Pub Transp % pa Sources: Sydney Household Travel Surveys; Glazebrook (2009)

21 Public Transport is growing rapidly (except in Sydney)

22 Densities are increasing In Sydney 70% or more of new housing in established areas. 30% population growth in inner suburbs. There isn t t room for 30% more cars. Public transport mode share increases with both density and proximity to the CBD. BUT Future shifts will only happen if sufficient PT capacity is provided Source: Independent Public Inquiry (2010)

23 Future Sustainability A - Business as usual 35% pop growth, no change in mode shares, 50% efficiency improvements for car fleet B - More sustainable 30% pop growth, 10% reduction in travel per person, double PT and walk/cycle, car efficiency plus 100% greenpower for rail C - Major change 20% pop growth, 20% less travel per person, treble mode shares for PT, walk, cycle, efficiency improvements

24 Future Road Demand A= Business as Usual; B = More Sustainable; C=Major change Business as Usual - major road expenditure and / or massive increase in congestion More Sustainable option can keep VKT constant Major change option could substantially reduce VKT

25 Its up to us.. Population is not the only issue Our political process could change direction towards a sustainable future through appropriate pricing, investment and land use options. But is there the public support?

26 What do people want? Independent Public Transport inquiry (Sydney) Dec ,400 person survey (choice model) 3 broad long term futures 62% favoured high PT investment (with required taxes etc) Almost uniform across community (gender, income, car/pt user etc) Percent Support for Different Futures Percent Support by Household Income Percent Support by Household Income Source: Independent Public Inquiry (2010).

27 What do people want? ITLS / Interfleet Transport Opinion Survey (June 2010) In the June 2010 quarter, one in five Australians nominated either transport (8%) or infrastructure (10%) as one of the two highest priority issues in Australia today. Over half of Australians (53%) said the highest priority issue for transport in Australia is public transport improvements, more than double who said road improvements were the highest transport priority (22%). 42% of Australians think the private sector should be involved more in the provision of public transport, while 31% think the private sector should be involved less, similar to the previous quarter. In the June 2010 quarter, Victoria was the only state where more residents want less private sector involvement in public transport, rather than more involvement. Source: data/assets/pdf_file/0010/72397/tops /72397/TOPS-data-1006.pdf

28 Where are we headed - Sydney State Government developing integrated transport land use plan Independent Public Inquiry 30 Year PT Plan Final Report May 2010 Double PT use and triple cycle / walk by 2040 Holds car use steady despite 40% pop growth Similar PT targets now by State Government

29 Major surge in PT demand and in cycling Melbourne New rail upgrades plus smart bus enhancement and more trams underway Regional Rail Link project funded ($4.3b) and next major project is new metro link under Swanston St

30 Brisbane Significant expansion of busways over last decade Further busways and rail extensions underway New cross river rail link which will potentially double rail system capacity by First stage ($8b) planned for completion by Feasibility study to be completed in 2011

31 Adelaide Public transport system is planned to double with electrification of the heavy rail system, extension of light rail and O-bahnO systems

32 Perth Perth was one of the world s most car dependent cities Its rail system was nearly closed down, but was saved and has since grown spectacularly to form a key long-distance transport spine for the city Now plans for a light rail network to supplement this in inner suburbs and support the shift to higher densities and transit oriented development

33 How realistic is it to double walking and cycling? How realistic is it to double walking and cycling? 30% 27% 25% Source: Pucher and Buehler (2007) 20% 18% 15% 10% 10% 10% 11% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% Australia ('01) USA ('01) UK ('05) Canada ('01) Ireland ('02) Italy ('00) France ('94) Norway ('01) Austria ('95) Switzerland ('00) Belgium ('99) Germany ('02) Sweden ('02) Finland ('98) Denmark ('01) Netherlands ('05) Percent of Trips by Bicycle

34 Should be pretty easy - It just needs to come back into fashion City of Sydney spending $76m on 200km cycleway network Brisbane City has built three car-free bridges across the Brisbane River Melbourne City has just launched Australia s s first public bike hire scheme

35 So the future doesn t t have to look like this!

36 But there is no magic pudding Need an extra $3.5 billion pa in urban public transport and cycleways investment across the major cities Where can this come from?

37 Sources of funds The SHM Public Inquiry examined a wide range of sources including Higher PT fares Parking and road congestion charges Carbon taxes on petrol Metropolitan levy (rates) Ultimately these are political decisions but the evidence suggests people will accept some new charges and taxes provided they are dedicated to improving public transport and providing cycling facilities etc

38 And we will save on costs of cars Relative Costs of Modes in Sydney $1.00 $0.90 Externality and Subsidy Costs Cost per Passenger-kilometre $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.38 $0.34 Other Private Costs Variable User Costs $0.37 $0.38 $0.10 $0.00 $0.14 $0.11 $0.19 Cars Trains Buses We just need some more brave politicians!

39 Conclusion Higher population growth in our cities need not be disastrous from a sustainable transport perspective (but need to consider full range of issues) It will increase funds available and increase densities,, making it more feasible to reduce car dependence But only if governments shift to the sustainable route and stop building more roads! Thank you