Economic, social, and political geography. John Daley, CEO, Grattan Institute SGS Planning 8 September 2016

Transcription

1 Economic, social, and political geography John Daley, CEO, Grattan Institute SGS Planning 8 September 2016

2 People are consuming more services Share of total nominal household expenditure Goods 40 Services Notes: Excludes rents and dwelling costs and other goods and services. Based on seasonally adjusted current prices data Source: 2

3 Economic centralisation is increased by better communications technology Rural City fringe (> 40% commute) City <100k City < ½ m City < 2 m City > 2 m (Paris) Give instructions to customers or suppliers (% of respondents) 0% 20% 40% Give instructions in person (% of respondents) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Give instructions over phone (% of respondents) 0% 20% 40% Note: Multiple regression analysis shows that relationships hold even after controlling for industry and education levels of workforce Source: Charlot & Duranton, Cities and workplace communication: some quantitative French evidence 43 Urban Studies (2006)

4 Australia s economy is now dominated by its big cities Australian economic activity, Per cent of State total NSW 100 Vic Qld WA SA SE Qld Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth $bn Grattan Institute, Mapping Australia s economy Adelaide 4 Tas/ ACT/NT Hobart/Canberra/ Darwin

5 Economic output per hour is highest towards the centre Economic activity per working hour, >$90 $80-90 $70-80 $60-70 $50-60 $40-50 <$40 Insufficient data Grattan analysis of ABS data in Mapping Australia s Economy Airport: $63 Docklands: $103 CBD: $ kilometres Southbank: $76 Dandenong: $44 5

6 Most of the jobs are being created towards the centre although the housing is not Employment and population growth, Melbourne, % 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% % of net employment growth % of net population growth 0-10 km km 20+ km Distance from CBD Jobs per resident, Melbourne, Did central city growth happen because of or despite government policy? 0-10km 10-20km 20+km Distance from CBD 6

7 Access to jobs falls away in Melbourne s outer suburbs Percentage of jobs that can be reached in 45 minutes by car > <10 Grattan analysis of ABS data in Mapping Australia s Economy Airport 0 10 kilometres CBD Dandenong 7

8 Outer suburbs have much lower levels of education Percentage of residents (age 25-65) with a university degree, 2011 > <10 Grattan Institute, Productive Cities 8

9 Women in poorly-connected areas face especially difficult compromises Differences in male and female workforce participation by suburb,

10 These economic patterns are now being reflected by politics 1 st preference Senate votes 2016 to larger parties (LNP, Labor, Greens) More than: 85% 80% 75% Perth 70% 65% 60% <60% Adelaide Ordinary Australians do have a common enemy, but it is not Aborigines, Asians, or people of any particular colour, race or creed. Our common oppressors are a class of raceless, placeless cosmopolitan elites who are exercising almost absolute power over us. Pauline Hanson, The Truth (1997) Source: AEC, Grattan Institute analysis Melbourne Brisbane Sydney 10

11 Regional political divisions are also emerging in the UK Brexit vote 20% 50% 80% Plymouth Source: New York Times, based on BBC, British Office of National Statistics, Bristol Newcastle Leeds Leicester Southampton Brighton Cambridge Norwich 11