State Budget Breakfast

Transcription

1 Welcome to Master Builders SA s State Budget Breakfast July 8, 2016

2 Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA

3 Associate Professor Michael O Neil Executive Director, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide

4 Master Builders SA Budget Breakfast 2016 Associate Professor Michael O Neil Executive Director, SACES 8 July 2016

5 Growth in Key Components of Australian GDP Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Annual Percentage Change Contribution to GDP Growth Final Consumption Expenditure General Government Households Gross Fixed Capital Formation Private Dwelling Business Investment Public Domestic Final Demand Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Income 0.6 n.a. ABS data

6 Per cent Annual Growth in Australian Export Volumes Seas. Adj Goods Services Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data

7 Per Cent Annual Growth in Australian Export Values Seas. Adj Goods Services -40 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data

8 Index Terms of Trade Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16 Month ABS data

9 $ billion Australian Private New Capital Expenditure by Industry 25 Mining Other Selected Industries 10 5 Manufacturing 0 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data

10 $ billion Actual and Expected Private New Capital Expenditure, Australia / / / / / / Mining Manufacturing Other selected industries Total ABS data

11 Ratio Australian Household Saving Ratio Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16 Quarter ABS data

12 South Australia: General Economic Climate

13 Expenditure on South Australia s State Final Demand Final Consumption Expenditure Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Annual Percentage Change Contribution to GSP Growth General Government Households Gross Fixed Capital Formation Private Dwellings Business Investment Public State Final Demand ABS data

14 Australia, $ billion South Australia, $ billion Private Sector Business Investment Australia South Australia Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data

15 Per cent Growth in Selected Real Domestic Demand Components Private Business Investment Household Consumption Expenditure Total Private Dwellings Investment -15 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Year Ended (Quarter) ABS data

16 $ billion Value of South Australian Building Approvals Total Building New Residential Building 0.1 Residential Alterations/Additions Non-Residential Building 0.0 Apr06 Apr07 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Month ABS data

17 $ billion Preliminary Real Construction Work Done, South Australia Total Construction Engineering Construction 1.0 Residential Building 0.5 Non-Residential Building 0.0 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data

18 Per cent Annual Growth Real Goods & Services Exports, SA Services Goods Sep12 Mar13 Sep13 Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Sep15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data

19 Index Established House Prices Brisbane Sydney 110 Perth Melbourne Adelaide 50 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data

20 Index Index of Employment Levels WA QLD VIC 110 SA NSW TAS May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Month ABS data

21 '000 Persons South Australian Employment Levels Seasonally Adjusted Trend May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Month ABS data

22 Per cent South Australian Employment Growth Total employment -4 Full-time employment -6 May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Year Ended (Month) ABS data

23 Population and Growth (1981/82 to 2013/14) South Australian Growth 26.6 per cent to 1.679m; Victoria 46.0 per cent; Australia 54.7 per cent; CAGR South Australia 0.74 per cent; Victoria 1.19 per cent; Australia 1.37 per cent

24 Share of Population (1981/82 to 2013/14) Age South Australia 1981/82 (%) South Australia 2013/14 (%) ,000 less young people aged under 24 years than in 1981/82.

25 Per cent Employment to Population Ratio Victoria Australia 58.0 South Australia

26 Comparison of dependency ratios: 1981/82 and 2013/14 Dependency ratio for >65 Dependency ratio for 0-14 and >65 years 1981/ / / /14 South Australia Victoria Australia

27 Budget 2015/16 (Foundation) TAX REFORM: Abolish transfers on non-quotable market securities; Stamp duty on non-residential real property; Abolished River Murray Levy; Extended small business payroll tax rebate. WORKCOVER: Estimated reduction in costs to business of $180m; Average premiums to decline to 1.95 per cent. STAMP DUTY (off the plan apartments): $15,500 stamp duty concession (end June 2017); Retention of (hew homes) $15,000 first home owners grant. PLANNING REFORMS: To reduce delays.

28 Known (2016/17) Increase in ESL on land, property, motor vehicles ($292m 2016/17); Increase in waste collection (raise $64m); Extend small business payroll tax rebate (<$1.2m); $55m for North Terrace tram extension; Southern Expressway and Darlington Interchange; New gambling tax on sports betting ($9.2m); Whyalla rescue package ($50m); Upgrade of Her Majesty s Theatre; Increase in number of prison beds ($56m).

29 Talking Points 2016/17 Budget of 7 July 2016 TO BE DISCUSSED

30 Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA

31 Daniel Wills State Political Editor, The Advertiser

32 Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA

33 Panel Discussion Associate Professor Michael O Neil, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies Daniel Wills, The Advertiser Russell Emmerson, Master Builders SA

34 Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA

35 Thank you for attending Master Builders SA s State Budget Breakfast July 8, 2016