Connecting Transportation and Economic Growth in Metropolitan Washington
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1 Connecting Transportation and Economic Growth in Metropolitan Washington Summary of Report Prepared for The 23 Group John McClain, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University October 1, 212 Study Objective: How is economic activity and growth supported/enabled by transportation? Allocate Gross Regional Product (GRP) to centers of economic activity in the region (COG s Regional Activity Centers) BEA contributions to GRP/sector jobs Convert Sector GRP per job to Round 8 jobs Use COG/TPB Transportation Model results to connect economic activity to transportation (211 CLRP) to calculate economic activity for Base Year (27-1) and Forecast Year (24) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 Key Findings - GRP Growth Regional Travel Forecasts and Trends Economic Growth by Mode Gross Regional Product Population Employment Trips/Day 21 $429 Bil. 5,5, 3,32, 18,9, 24 $1,849 Bil. 7,27, 4,66, 27,1, Change $1,42 Bil. 1,77, 1,34, 8,2, Percent 331% 32% 4% 43% Sources: IHS Global Insight, COG GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 GRP By Jurisdiction, (billions current $) Region: 21 = $429 B = $1,849 B Sources: Global Insight, COG, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GRP by Centers (Billions of current $) REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTER Growth Downtown DC $57.1 $23.3 $146.3 Tysons Corner Federal Center/SW/Navy Yard Shady Grove/King Farm/ Life Sci Merrifield/Dunn Loring Rosslyn Crystal City Reston West Dulles West Dulles East GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 % Washington Commuting to Work Source: US Census /Work at Home Millions/Day 7 6 Washington Travel Trends All Work Trips by Mode, 27 and Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, AQ Conformity 211 CLRP, Nov. 211 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 Washington Travel Trends Work Trips Share by Mode % Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, AQ Conformity 211 CLRP, Nov. 211 Washington Travel Trends Total Trips Share by Mode % Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, AQ Conformity 211 CLRP, Nov. 211 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 Washington GRP, 21 and 24 (Current $) $Billions Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, Air Quality Conformity Determination of the 211 Constrained Long Range Plan for the Washington Metropolitan Region, Nov. 16, 211 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington Region GRP Growth 21 to 24 Enabled by Transportation Mode $ Billions Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, Air Quality Conformity Determination of the 211 Constrained Long Range Plan for the Washington Metropolitan Region, Nov. 16, 211 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 Washington GRP, 21 and 24 in Regional Activity Centers % Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, Air Quality Conformity Determination of the 211 Constrained Long Range Plan for the Washington Metropolitan Region, Nov. 16, 211 and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Top 12 Centers by GRP Growth and Mode of Travel in 24 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTER % Auto % Transit % B/Walk Downtown DC Tysons Corner Federal Center/SW/Navy Yard Shady Grove/King Farm/ Life Sci Merrifield/Dunn Loring Rosslyn Crystal City Reston West Dulles West Dulles East Fairfax Center White Flint GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 Of Top 3 Centers by GRP Growth, Centers with >4% Transit in 24 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTER % Auto % Transit % B/Walk Downtown DC Federal Center/SW/Navy Yard Rosslyn Crystal City Ballston/VA Square Bethesda CBD Silver Spring CBD Monumental Core Clarendon/Court House Of Top 3 Centers by GRP Growth, Centers with >85% by Auto in 24 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTER % Auto % Transit % B/Walk Merrifield/Dunn Loring Dulles West Dulles East Fairfax Center City of Fairfax/GMU Konterra Corporate Dulles Germantown Herndon Dulles Corner Reston East GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 Major Projects in the CLRP For Transportation Model Run Project Cost Completion Inter-County Connector $2.53 B 212 I-495 Hot Lanes $.9 B 213 Virginia I-395/95 Hot Lanes $.25 B 214 Dulles Rail $5.63 B 216 Maryland I-95 Improvements $.27 B 22 Virginia Rt 7 Corridor Transit Improvements $.37 B 22 Maryland Route 5 Upgrade $1.12 B 225 I-27/Shady Grove Highway & Transit Improvements $3.4 B 23 Maryland 21 Multi-modal $.61 B 23 Virginia VRE Improvements $.27 B 23 Virginia Fairfax County Parkway Upgrade $.3 B 235 Maryland US 29 Upgrade $.53 B 24 Source: TPB Version 2.3 Travel Model, AQ Conformity 211 CLRP, Nov. 211 SUMMARY Economic Growth in Centers is Strongly Related to/enabled by Transportation - & All Modes Transit is Important Strategically for Stimulating Economic Growth Synergy with Other Factors Auto/Highway Infrastructure is Important for All Centers Especially Outside Beltway Bike/Walk an Important Mode in conjunction with Transit and Density. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 SUMMARY In the Constrained Long Range Plan, highway capacity + 7% while VMT +28% and daily trips + 5%. These are internal trips only (external +22%). CLRP does not support economic projections and financing of even the CLRP is uncertain. Absent significant new and sustained infrastructure funding, the region s economic potential and health will likely not be realized. cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
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