STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2. March 15, 2016

Transcription

1 STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 March 15, 2016

2 Agenda Welcome and introductions Brief overview of previous SWG meeting Airport focus group meeting results Summary of existing airport conditions Passenger demand analysis conclusions Overview of preliminary aviation forecasts Comments, questions and next steps

3 Team Introductions Mead & Hunt, Inc. - offices in Fargo and Bismarck Bart Gover, Project Manager Jon Scraper, Project Coordinator Jen Boehm, Project Engineer Matt Blankenship, Project Planner Matt Dubbe, Terminal Architect Joseph Pickering, Air Service Dave Dietz, Lead Aviation Forecaster Kim Kenville Consulting Grand Forks Public Outreach Program Stakeholder Focus Groups

4 Overview of Previous Meeting What is a master plan Comprehensive study: short, medium and long-term development Roadmap for future development Why a Master Plan Address key issues impacting Airport Focus on landside and airside access Meet customer needs and demands Required by FAA

5 Overview of Previous Meeting SWG 1 SWG 2 SWG 3 SWG 4 Master Plan Process 4 Study Work Group Meetings Phase 1, 2, 3, and before public meeting Moderate effort periods Phase 2 and 3 Study Work Group member role and responsibilities Key project issues, goals, and objectives

6 Overview of Previous Meeting Study Work Group Roles and Responsibilities Serve as a communication link with respective stakeholders Sounding board for study recommendations Active meeting participation High level review of draft working papers

7 Overview of Previous Meeting Key Project Issues, Goals and Objectives Focus on customer service opportunities Enhancing the passenger experience Terminal development and expansion Runway rehabilitation Promote land use compatibility Air cargo development Vehicular parking expansion

8 Focus Group Meetings

9 Focus Group Meetings In consultation with the Airport Management team at BIS several groups were identified for focus group conversations in December groups were identified and contacted for hour meetings in the second week of December After a schedule had been set, a series of questions regarding the airport were sent to the participants, along with a brief description of Airport Master Planning

10 Focus Groups Chamber/Business Community Airline Ground Service Providers Air Cargo Providers Ground Transportation Service providers Government Partners General Aviation Users Adjacent Landowners Airport Employees City/County/Economic Development and Planners Airline Representatives

11 Emerging Themes Each group said they were exceptionally proud of Bismarck s Front Door The Airport Terminal 1. Preserve the beauty and functionality of the terminal while accommodating the need for growth and expansion 2. Landside expansion of parking, car rentals and access to other airport buildings and businesses

12 Emerging Themes 3. Other facility growth needs E911 Maintenance and ARFF Radar Platt Drawing addresses for the airport facilities 4. General Aviation future plans 5. Upgrade the use of Technology where appropriate Website, mobile-friendly applications

13 Emerging Themes 6. Organizational Cross Training for continued efficiencies Succession Planning in critical areas

14 Preliminary SWOT Analysis Terminal Cargo growth (10-20%) 2 FBOs ARNG Airfield Amenities STRENGTHS Employee Team City Ownership No Debt Public Support Adequate Property Terminal Congestion Baggage make-up Loss of GA to Mandan Cross Training (MX/Ops) Professional Development WEAKNESSES Parking Issues SRE/ARFF Equipment Age Ground Handlers Signage for Exiting Vehicles OPPORTUNITIES Additional Allegiant Flights Non-Aeronautical Land Development Corporate Development Bus Route Uber E911 Growth Longer term lease with Gas Station THREATS Economy Pilot Shortage (no mainline service) FAA Funding Cost of Construction Rising Operating Costs Allegiant stability Janitorial - continued terminal excellence

15 Inventory of Existing Conditions

16 Inventory Role of Airport History Land Use Demographics Economic Impact Airside Landside Airspace

17 Airport Role Federal (NPIAS) Primary Non-hub Commercial Service Airport (more than 10,000 enplanements, making up < 0.05% of national total) State same as Federal guidelines Local one of area s vital links to global economy

18 History Historical aviation events specific to Bismarck and US Aviation in Bismarck is nearly as old as aviation itself

19 Bismarck Airport Historical Timeline

20 Surrounding Environment/Land Use Meteorological Conditions 85 /57 July to 23 /2 January Soil Composition Loamy sand and silt Regional Climate Humid Continental climate temperature extremes Surrounding Land Uses Ranching/farming

21 Surrounding Land Use Map

22 Demographics Socioeconomic Population Retail Sales Employment Economic Impact 2015 North Dakota Aviation Economic Impact Study

23 Statistics and Airport Economic Impacts

24 Airport Tenants

25 Airside Runways Taxiways Aprons Cargo Area NAVAIDs Weather Reporting Equipment

26 Runway Data Summary

27 Airfield Layout

28 Landside Parking ARFF SRE Fuel Storage Facilities Electrical Vaults ATCT Terminal

29 Terminal Facilities Map

30 Hangar & Support Facilities Map

31 Airspace General Facility (Class D) Part 77 Runway Protection Zones Threshold Siting Surfaces NAVAID Critical

32

33 Airline Terminal Security Checkpoint Holdroom Ticketing Baggage Claim Rental Car Concessions Office Space Curbfront

34 TSA Checkpoint and Holdroom

35 Ticketing and Baggage Claim

36 Concessions and Rental Car

37 Administrative Offices and Curbfront

38 Airport Terminal Building Level One

39 Airport Terminal Building Level Two

40 Passenger Demand Analysis

41 Passenger Demand Analysis Overview Methodology Airport Use True Market Estimate Forecast Insights

42 Passenger Demand Analysis Overview Develop information on the travel patterns of local airline passengers who reside in the Bismarck Airport (BIS) air service catchment area and provide insights into the Master Plan enplanement forecast, including: Originating airports used by air travelers Diversion of airline passenger traffic to competing airports Estimate of total airline passengers in the catchment area and related destinations Airlines used by local air travelers Average airfares by origin and destination airport Service levels at BIS and competing airports Assessment of the air service situation at BIS

43 Methodology Provides objective air traveler data compiled from industry accepted sources: Combines Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) ticketed data and US Department of Transportation (DOT) airline data to provide a comprehensive overview of the air travel market ARC data represents a sample of air travelers and includes tickets purchased through travel agencies in the BIS catchment area as well as tickets purchased via online travel agencies in the BIS catchment area but does not capture tickets issued directly by airline Web sites Includes schedule, enplanement, airfare and capacity trends Year-ending June 30, 2015 bookings and O&D data

44 BIS Air Service Catchment Area 64 zip codes Estimated population 154,260 Conservative representative of the local market geographic area closest to airport 14,090 ARC tickets Source: December 2015 Passenger Demand Analysis, Mead & Hunt

45 Airport Use Due to geographic isolation, diversion to alternate airports is not a major issue. FAR 6% MOT 1% BIS 93% RANK ORIGINATING AIRPORT AIRPORT USE PAX % Domestic 1 BIS 477, FAR 30, MOT 8,314 1 Subtotal 516, International 1 BIS 29, FAR 1, MOT Subtotal 31, Domestic and international 1 BIS 507, FAR 32, MOT 8,500 1 Total 547,

46 Airport Use Bismarck generates ~ 60% of travel COMMUNITY AIRPORT USE % BIS FAR MOT TRUE MARKET ESTIMATE Bismarck ,561 Mandan ,650 Beulah ,923 Hazen ,379 Washburn ,807 New Salem ,953 Wilton ,848 Mobridge ,468 Glen Ullin ,221 Center ,020 Menoken ,926 Wishek ,860 Linton ,688 Baldwin ,651 All Other ,193 Total ,976

47 True Market Estimate Top 25 destinations account for ~2/3 of all travel to/from the BIS catchment area ~41,000 annual travelers use an alternate airports RANK DESTINATION BIS REPORTED PAX DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW 1 Las Vegas, NV 55,005 1,043 56, Denver, CO 42,783 1,617 44, Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 41, , Orlando, FL (SFB) 29, , Minneapolis, MN 23,870 3,056 26, Dallas, TX (DFW) 16, , Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 11, , Seattle, WA (SEA) 10,608 1,113 11, Chicago, IL (ORD) 10, , Washington, DC (DCA) 9, , Houston, TX (IAH) 7,455 1,929 9, Los Angeles, CA 8,299 1,069 9, Orlando, FL (MCO) 7,519 1,041 8, San Francisco, CA 7, , Atlanta, GA 6,217 1,106 7, Portland, OR 6, , San Diego, CA 6, , Salt Lake City, UT 6, , New York, NY (LGA) 5, , Nashville, TN 4, , Kansas City, MO 5, , San Antonio, TX 4, , St. Louis, MO 4, , Boston, MA 4, , Detroit, MI 2,951 1,265 4, Top 25 destinations 337,219 21, , Total domestic 477,776 38, , Total international 29,536 1,975 31, All markets 507,312 40, ,

48 Originating Airport Nonstop markets had higher retention rates. Just 6% of BIS catchment area travelers use FAR as an alternate airport ORIGIN AIRPORT% RANK DESTINATION BIS FAR MOT TOTAL PAX 1 Las Vegas, NV ,048 2 Denver, CO ,400 3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) ,339 4 Orlando, FL (SFB) ,100 5 Minneapolis, MN ,926 6 Dallas, TX (DFW) ,942 7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) ,347 8 Seattle, WA (SEA) ,721 9 Chicago, IL (ORD) , Washington, DC (DCA) , Houston, TX (IAH) , Los Angeles, CA , Orlando, FL (MCO) , San Francisco, CA , Atlanta, GA , Portland, OR , San Diego, CA , Salt Lake City, UT , New York, NY (LGA) , Nashville, TN , Kansas City, MO , San Antonio, TX , St. Louis, MO , Boston, MA , Detroit, MI ,216 Top 25 domestic ,981 Total domestic ,465

49 Enplanements Trend 275, , , , , , , ,000 75,000 Enplanements (YE 6/30) MSA Population (CY) Year Ended June 30/Calendar Year CAGR of 4.3% well above national averages Growth attributable to diversified economy

50 Influencing Factors Bismarck airfares $23 higher than Fargo but $24 lower than Minot Slightly fewer weekly flights than Fargo but significantly more than Minot AIRCRAFT TYPE Regional jet Mainline jet SEAT WEEKLY DEPARTURES RANGE BIS FAR MOT Total departures % regional jet departures 91% 85% 94% Total seats 6,460 10,452 4,310 Source: Diio Mi; Note: Sample week in June 2015 Service levels and future enplanements closely tied to the energy sector RJ replacement will lead to larger aircraft per flight Additional frequency on strong single flight markets Seasonal shifts in capacity

51 Aviation Forecasts

52 Historical Passenger Enplanements 300,000 Historical Passenger Enplanements 250, , ,000 Record snow falls followed by widespread flooding ineastern North Dakota disrupts state economy Economic effects of oil exploration boom arrive 100,000 50, Year

53 Historic and Forecast Passenger Enplanements 500,000 Historical and Forecast Passenger Enplanements Annual Enplanements (Boardings) 400, , , ,000 HISTORICAL YEAR FORECAST PERIOD BIS Actual Enplanement Per Population (E/P) Trend Line ( ) Population Regression FAA TAF (2016) FAA TAF (2015)

54 Historical Based Aircraft Fleet Mix TOTAL Based Aircraft SINGLE- ENGINE 20 0 MULTI- ENGINE Grand Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Helicopter Military Total Other Note: Total includes civilian and military HELICOPTER MILITARY JET

55 Historic and Future Based Aircraft Based Aircraft HISTORICAL FORECAST Year Historical 2016 Low Forecast High Forecast

56 Historic and Forecast Based Aircraft Type Mix of Based Aircraft Types Historical and Forecast Aircraft Type Forecast Low High Total (Civilian + Military) CAGR % 1.25% Civilian Total Civilian Single-Engine Piston Twin-Engine Piston Single-Engine Turboprop Twin-Engine Turboprop Jet - Small Cabin Jet - Medium/Large Cabin Helicopter CAGR % 1.43% Military - North Dakota Army National Guard Total Military Helicopter Fixed-Wing 1 1 1

57 Historic and Forecast Aircraft Operations 70,000 Exhibit 2-8: Historic and Forecast Operations, ,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 HISTORICAL BIS Historical BIS Forecast FAA TAF (2015) FORECAST PERIOD FAA TAF (2016)

58 Historic Air Cargo 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 Bismarck Air Cargo in Pounds, Pounds 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Year All Cargo Cargo Carriers USPS and Passager Airline Cargo

59 Historic and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes Historical and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes MILLIONS OF POUNDS Historical Data BaselineTrend Energy Boom Trend

60 Critical Aircraft: Airbus A-320 Series Aircraft Design Characteristics: Aircraft Type: Narrowbody Transport Approach Speed: ±134 Knots Wingspan: ±150 to ±180 Tail height: 38.7' Maximum Weight: 172,000 Pounds Seating Configuration: 150 to 180 Passengers Cockpit to Main Gear (CMG) 50.2' Wheelbase 41.5' Main Gear Width (MGW) 29.4'

61 Summary of Preferred Aviation Forecasts Summary of Preferred Forecasts Category PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS 259, , , , ,961 TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATIONS 58,536 58,536 60,987 63,339 65,598 Itinerant Operations 41,012 42,497 43,911 45,731 47,559 Local Operations 15,697 16,039 17,076 17,735 18,039 BASED AIRCRAFT Single-Engine Piston Twin-Engine Piston Turboprop Jet Helicopter Military AIR CARGO (Pounds) 7,932,840 6,914,516 7,379,439 7,875,623 8,405,170

62 Comments & Questions Open discussion Contact Airport Tim Thorsen Contact the Project Manager Bart Gover Bismarck Airport Master Plan Webpage is operational Will serve as an electronic data room for all project documents and information Accessed from BIS Airport Webpage

63 Next Steps Hold Public Workshop No. 1 (March 16 th 5-7PM) Incorporate public feedback Submit forecast to FAA for review/approval Identify future airfield capacity and facilities necessary to support growth over next 20-years Conduct airport alternatives analysis to address future facility development Identify a preferred alternative concept for development of Airport Layout Plans (ALP) package Hold SWG Meeting No. 3 (late summer 2016) Hold Public Meeting No. 2 (late summer 2016)