ALW Airport Master Plan Update. Planning Advisory Committee Meeting #2 February 11, 2016

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1 ALW Airport Master Plan Update Planning Advisory Committee Meeting #2 February 11, 2016

2 Meeting Agenda 1. Introductions 2. Review of PAC #1 3. Study Progress 4. Passenger Demand 5. Activity Forecasts 6. Facility Preview Time Permitting

3 Introductions 1. Airport Staff 2. Project Team 3. Advisory Committee 4. Public in Attendance

4 Review of PAC #1 Inventory of Existing Facilities & SWOT Analysis Follow-Up Questions Is a turf runway possible? Possible, but at a cost and with a limited benefit. A turf runway requires maintenance and upkeep, which would reduce funds available for other projects. Is a GA terminal building eligible for FAA funding? Public areas are eligible. Lower priority than airfield safety improvements and pavements and have strict funding limits. What impact would runway centerline lights have on minimums? These, along with touchdown zone lights, allow for landing visibility minimums below ½ mile and takeoff minimums below 1,800 RVR.

5 SWOT Analysis Strengths: 1. Facilities and infrastructure 2. Available property for development 3. Local economy is growing 4. Airline passenger growth; increasing enplanements Weakness: 1. Responsiveness to aircraft fuel availability 2. Airline competition, single destination offered 3. Airport needs to become more financially selfsufficient (also a threat) Opportunities: 1. Attract aviation oriented businesses, offer more retail in Business Park 2. Get Los Angeles/Central California airline service 3. College Flight Program; train pilots, perhaps other aviation curriculums Threats: 1. Port is perceived competition with private sector investment and pricing 2. Airport needs to become more financially selfsufficient 3. Lack of private investment into new hangar development

6 Study Progress What do we have? Inventory Forecasts* What demand do we expect? Can we meet expected demand? Facility Requirements Alternatives What do we need to change to meet demand? How do we pay for these changes? Capital Improvement Plan Airport Layout Plan* What will these changes look like? Stakeholder Coordination & Public Outreach * Denotes FAA-approved Element PAC Public

7 Passenger Demand Analysis Trina Froehlich, Senior Air Service Consultant

8 Methodology and Catchment Area Purpose: To support the Master Plan enplanement forecast Study timeframe: YE 1Q 2015 Data used: ARC tickets: 20,880 Adjustments made for Allegiant & Southwest Catchment area: Geographic area where the population would most likely use the airport 10 zip codes Population = 74,813

9 True Market Estimate ORIGINATING AIRPORT USE RANK AIRPORT PAX % Domestic 1 ALW 72, PSC 66, SEA 23, PDX 17, GEG 10,170 5 Subtotal 189, International 1 PSC 4, SEA 2, ALW 2, PDX 1, GEG Subtotal 10, Domestic and international 1 ALW 74, PSC 70, SEA 25, PDX 18, GEG 10,522 5 Total 200, Overall retention of 38% of true market estimate Pasco (PSC) is the largest diverting airport with 35% Seattle (SEA) and Portland (PDX) had 22% combined Overall true market size 200,576 annual passengers 275 Passenger Daily Each Way (PDEW)

10 Airport Use by Community % AIRPORT USE TRUE COMMUNITY ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG MARKET PAX Walla Walla ,870 College Place ,958 Milton Freewater ,423 Dayton ,855 Waitsburg ,802 Athena ,221 Touchet ,620 Prescott ,270 Weston Dixie Total ,576 Walla Walla community had the highest number of passengers 79% of the true market Retained 43% of passengers, higher than the average

11 Top 25 Domestic Markets ORIGIN AIRPORT % TOTAL RANK DESTINATION ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG PAX PDEW 1 Seattle, WA , Las Vegas, NV , Sacramento, CA , Los Angeles, CA , San Francisco, CA , Portland, OR , San Diego, CA , Phoenix, AZ (PHX) , Orange County, CA , Denver, CO , Oakland, CA , Boston, MA , San Jose, CA , Anchorage, AK , Washington, DC (DCA) , Ontario, CA , Chicago, IL (ORD) , Newark, NJ , Kansas City, MO , Orlando, FL (MCO) , Minneapolis, MN , Burbank, CA , Phoenix, AZ (AZA) , Honolulu, HI , Reno, NV , Top 25 domestic , Total domestic , Seattle is top destination airport Could be skewed with interline tickets 30,305 annual passengers or 41.5 PDEW California markets make up 5 of the top 10 markets

12 Top 15 International Markets 4 of the top 5 markets are to Mexico largely leisure related Due to small sample sizes, the top international markets will likely vary significantly from year to year ORIGIN AIRPORT % PASSENGERS RANK DESTINATION PSC SEA ALW PDX GEG TOTAL PDEW 1 Guadalajara, Mexico , San Jose del Cabo, Mexico Edmonton, Canada Cancun, Mexico Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Vancouver, Canada Paris-De Gaulle, France Manila, Philippines Amsterdam, Netherlands Victoria, Canada London, UK (LHR) Beijing, China Mexico City, Mexico Toronto, Canada Mazatlan, Mexico Top 15 International , Total International ,

13 Geographic Distribution of Passengers 40% 25% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 2% Largest region is the West region followed by the Northwest region together they comprise 65% of total Only 5% is international travel 38% to Mexico 20% to Europe 4% 18% to Canada

14 Airlines Used by Diverting Passengers WN 9% G4 6% UA 20% AA 6% F9 Other 2% 4% DL 23% AS 30% Alaska obtains largest share of diverting passengers with 30% followed by Delta with 23% At PSC, 31% Delta, 26% United, 26% Alaska, 11% Allegiant At SEA, 42% Alaska, 17% Delta, 11% United, 11% Southwest and 10% American Helps in discussions with airlines on new or additional service

15 Average Domestic Fares: YE 1Q 2015 AVERAGE ONE-WAY FARE ALW RANK DESTINATION ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG MAX DIFF. 1 Seattle, WA $82 $100 - $106 $100 ($18) 2 Las Vegas, NV $123 $90 $128 $113 $148 $33 3 Sacramento, CA $157 $170 $119 $109 $159 $48 4 Los Angeles, CA $131 $119 $130 $140 $145 $12 5 San Francisco, CA $157 $153 $121 $118 $147 $39 6 Portland, OR $ $98 $45 7 San Diego, CA $168 $166 $123 $109 $154 $58 8 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) $155 $153 $153 $144 $151 $11 9 Orange County, CA $131 $143 $143 $141 $140 ($9) 10 Denver, CO $182 $243 $139 $136 $133 $49 11 Oakland, CA $126 $157 $108 $108 $153 $18 12 Boston, MA $250 $287 $230 $231 $252 $20 13 San Jose, CA $148 $176 $111 $113 $149 $37 14 Anchorage, AK $229 $252 $222 $232 $241 $7 15 Washington, DC (DCA) $309 $339 $261 $242 $274 $67 16 Ontario, CA $124 $150 $130 $132 $163 ($6) 17 Chicago, IL (ORD) $266 $297 $227 $229 $228 $39 18 Newark, NJ $254 $286 $251 $257 $271 $3 19 Kansas City, MO $215 $249 $177 $177 $184 $38 20 Orlando, FL (MCO) $227 $255 $211 $221 $227 $16 21 Minneapolis, MN $199 $261 $183 $226 $228 $16 22 Burbank, CA $151 $146 $136 $133 $169 $17 23 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) - $ Honolulu, HI $299 $278 $255 $234 $279 $65 25 Reno, NV $172 $168 $127 $117 $162 $55 Average domestic fare $150 $196 $181 $173 $173 ($23) Source: Diio Mi; Note: Year Ended March 31, 2015; Fares do not include taxes or Passenger Facility Charges Alaska s lower fare structure provides competitive fares in most ALW markets ALW had highest fare in 6 of top 25 markets Service availability is likely a primary cause of diversion to alternate airports

16 Average Domestic Fare Trend $220 One-Way Average Fare $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG Year Ended March 31 ALW fares have not increased at the same rate over the last 10 years as the alternate airports. Source: Diio Mi

17 Situation Analysis: Existing Air Service Opportunities Continue focusing on improving Alaska s SEA service Increase of over 20% in load factor in the last five years Additional frequency or PDX service will be considered with continued improvement Potential for PenAir service Growing codeshare relationship and operations in PDX with Alaska Service potentially challenging with PDX true market size of 9.1 PDEW and similar connections as SEA SkyWest operating pro-rate under Alaska codeshare

18 Situation Analysis: New Air Service Opportunities Issue: close proximity to PSC PSC captures 35% of catchment area 52 miles airport-to-airport Alaska, Allegiant, Delta and United provide service at PSC PSC has service markets within reasonable operating distance of ALW Airlines rarely offer duplicative service to airports within 60 miles of each other Other airlines American Airlines unlikely due to long stage lengths to hubs (LAX/PHX) in the near term Airlines like Frontier, JetBlue, Spirit and Southwest operate large aircraft in large markets SEA AS 6x DL 3x PDX AS 1x SFO UA 1-2x LAX G4 2x weekly (seasonal) PSC Nonstop Air Service LAS G4 2x weekly SLC DL 3x AZA G4 2x weekly DEN UA 2x MSP DL 1-2x

19 Situation Analysis: Delta Air Lines (DL) PSC has DL service to SLC, MSP and SEA SEA/SLC is first option before MSP service would be offered All domestic airports with SEA service (except AK/HI) have SLC service DL rarely serves airports within close proximity Few examples other than major metro areas at less than 75 miles JAC-IDA-PIH and SUN-TWF (short stage length) CDC-SGU (SkyWest headquarters) BTM-HLN-BZN and GTF-HLN (difficult drives) Source: Diio Mi July 2016; As of January 27, 2016; stage lengths of 1,000 miles or less

20 Situation Analysis: United Airlines (UA) PSC has UA service to DEN and SFO UA reducing smaller regional jets and becoming more mainline DEN Difficult to be profitable with CRJ200 due to long stage length (812 miles) Primarily only large metro and mountain/ski markets with dual service within 75 miles SFO even fewer airports within 75 miles and other WA markets yet to have the service (PSC/SEA only) Source: Diio Mi July 2016; As of January 27, 2016; stage lengths of 1,000 miles or less

21 Situation Analysis: Allegiant (G4) Less than daily service to G4 s leisure markets unlikely with PSC service Only 5 market pairs within 75 miles of each other to LAS Only 3 market pairs within 75 miles of each other to AZA Switch from PSC to ALW due to PSC costs? Precedent set at other airports (GRB- ATW, LNK-GRI, MCO-SFB) ALW population in line with other markets served by G4 Many threats to get costs in line but rarely does G4 move airports Rank by 50-mile population Origin G4 Flights YE 8/16 Onboards YE 10/15 Population 50 miles 100 miles 12 GRI , , , GJT , , , FAR , , , LRD , , , IDA , , ,679 ALW 0 40, , , MFR , , , FSD , , , BGR , , , PSC , , , BTV , ,949 5,783,460 Source: Diio Mi As of January 27, 2016

22 Questions and Comments Thank you!

23 Aviation Activity Forecasts Mitch Hooper, Project Manager

24 Aviation Activity Forecasts Forecasts: Define future facility, service, and property needs Are formally reviewed by FAA and must be reasonable Consider local and national trends PAC Questions: Do inputs and outputs seem reasonable? Did we miss anything? What contingencies should be planned for?

25 Aviation Activity Forecasts 20 Year Projection of: Enplanements Ticketed passengers Operations Takeoffs and Landings Based Aircraft Aircraft that are stored at ALW

26 Passenger Enplanements An enplanement is: The act of a passenger boarding a scheduled or charter flight with more than nine seats. Primary Influence Passenger terminal and parking requirements Viability of terminal businesses (restaurant, car rental, etc.) Traffic to and from the airport Airline profitability on ALW routes Secondary Influence Aircraft size and flight frequency Runway and taxiway dimensions and setbacks

27 Passenger Enplanements Rank Enplanements Factor r 1 City Lodging Tax Local Earnings GRP GDP Employment % average growth over past 10 years Tourism and economic growth are drivers Universities are stable source of demand

28 Passenger Enplanement Forecasts Local-focus Gross Regional Product, 10 Year Trend, & Tourism methodologies National-focus Gross Domestic Product and FAA Aerospace methodologies Key Considerations Tourism s impact on future activity Sustainability of 10-year growth rate Retention and growth of true market New routes at ALW and nearby airports

29 Passenger Enplanement Forecasts Growth between 1.7% and 3.7% Tourism Forecast is recommended (2.7%)

30 Aircraft Operations An operation is: A take off or landing of an aircraft. Operations can be local and itinerant. Primary Influence Capacity of runway and taxiway system Determination of design aircraft Design of pavement dimensions (length, width, and thickness) Safety setbacks from aircraft movement areas Aircraft noise exposure Secondary Influence Viability of FBO and fuel sales operations Cost/benefit analyses for airport investment projects

31 Aircraft Operations Factor 2.3% average decline over past 10 years Recreational demand down, other GA segments stable Airlines using larger aircraft, flying less often Rank Air Carrier Ops. 1 GRP Population Employment Hotel Rooms Available Nat'l Jet Fleet 0.70 Rank Air Taxi Ops. Factor 1 Nat'l Local GA Ops Nat'l Itinerant GA Ops Nat'l Air Taxi Ops Nat'l Air Carrier Ops GA Hours Flown 0.88 r r

32 Aircraft Operations Forecasts Year Enplanements Operations Air Carrier Commuter Total Air Carrier Commuter Total ,369 24, ,006 2, ,677 30,677 1, , ,245 40,245 1, ,248 CAGR ('05-'15) N/A 5.1% 5.1% N/A -8.0% 1.1% ,000 50,000 1, , ,000 54,000 1, , ,000 61,000 2,000 1,040 3, ,000 69,000 2,280 1,130 3,410 CAGR ('15-'35) N/A 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% N/A 2.1% Drop in commuter operations from 2005 to 2010 caused by Alaska swtiching to a larger aircraft. CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Commercial Operations 2.1% growth over next 20 years Airline trends to continue into future Part 135 (business jets) grow fastest Year Cargo Operations CAGR 0.3% CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Year Part 135 Operations CAGR 3.6% CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

33 Aircraft Operations Forecasts Itinerant GA Year TAF Forecast ,596 11, ,102 11, ,302 11, ,510 12, ,723 12,400 CAGR 0.1% 0.3% CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Local GA Year Total Training Other ,123 13,123 11,811 1, ,554 20,500 18,450 2, ,629 20,600 18,540 2, ,704 20,900 18,810 2, ,779 21,100 18,990 2,110 CAGR 0.2% 2.4% CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Forecast Itinerant GA 0.3% average growth over next 20 years Local GA 2.4% average growth over next 20 years Training and business segments lead growth TAF

34 Aircraft Operations Forecasts Total Operations 1.6% average growth over next 20 years Flight training and itinerant GA major drivers Air carrier will grow to meet passenger demand

35 Based Aircraft A based aircraft is: an aircraft that is primarily stored at ALW Primary Influence Mix and capacity of T-hangars and box hangars Parking aprons and tie downs Determination of design aircraft Local operations counts Secondary Influence Viability of FBO and fuel sales operations Itinerant operations counts

36 Based Aircraft Single Engine Piston Multi-engine Piston Turbo Prop Jet Helicopter Light Sport

37 Based Aircraft Rank Based Aircraft Factor r 1 Nat'l Multi-Engine Fleet Nat'l Single-Engine Fleet Nat'l Air Taxi Ops Nat'l Itinerant GA Ops Nat'l Local GA Ops % average decline over past 10 years Decline similar to national GA fleet Single engine piston most common type

38 Based Aircraft Forecasts Year SEP MEP Turbo Prop Jet Other Forecast TAF* % % % % % CAGR -0.6% 0.0% 0.0% N/A 5.2% -0.1% 0.8% SEP = Single Engine Piston, MEP = Multi-Engine Piston, Other = Experimental and Light Sport 2015 TAF has been adjusted to match actual based aircraft levels. CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate 0.1% average decline over next 20 years Single engine retirements, not replaced 1:1 Growth in jet, experimental, and light sport Difference

39 Forecast Summary Category CAGR ENPLANEMENTS 40,245 69, % TOTAL OPERATIONS 26,894 37, % Itinerant Operations 13,771 16, % Air Carrier 1,246 2, % Commuter/Air Taxi 872 1, % Military % General Aviation (GA) 11,596 12, % Local GA Operations 13,123 21, % Training 11,811 18, % Other 1,312 2, % BASED AIRCRAFT % Single-Engine Piston % Multi-Engine Piston % Turbo Prop % Jet 0 2 N/A Helicopter 0 0 N/A Light Sport / Experimental % CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Aviation activity expected to grow at ALW Enplanements driven by local economy and tourism Operations driven by itinerant GA and flight training Based aircraft growth markets include jet, light sport / experimental

40 Questions and Comments Thank you!

41 Project Roadmap What do we have? Inventory Forecasts* What demand do we expect? Can we meet expected demand? Facility Requirements Alternatives What do we need to change to meet demand? How do we pay for these changes? Capital Improvement Plan Airport Layout Plan* What will these changes look like? Stakeholder Coordination & Public Outreach * Denotes FAA-approved Element PAC Public

42 Documents to be reviewed at PAC 3 Final Aviation Activity Forecasts Draft Facility Requirements and Alternatives Runway Disposition Aircraft parking and storage Passenger and GA Terminals Property Development

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