Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi National Authority of Remote Sensing and Space Science (NARSS)

Transcription

1 Studying Population of Egypt Based on Census Data and Geographic Information System Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi National Authority of Remote Sensing and Space Science (NARSS) ABSTRACT: Egypt is famous for being the oldest civilizations on earth, where they began the Egyptian exodus to the banks of the Nile and settled and began to cultivate the land and livestock since 10,000 years ago. The ancient Egyptians record births and deaths in an orderly, formal, dubbed (records of life), was also keen to create a central archive called the Royal Archives keeps the official documents. Egypt s population was only hundreds of thousands before the dynasties (5000 BC BC.). First census of the population in modern times related to the year 1800 with an estimated population of 2.5 million people. In modern history Egypt s population in 2006 (last census) was The main objectives of this research are exploring Egypt population through ages and estimating population based on census data which is very essential for urban planning, natural hazard risk assessment, disaster prevention and response, environmental impact assessment transportation planning, economic decision-making, and evaluation of quality of life. In Egypt, Census years were 1947, 1960, 1966, 1976, 1986, 1996 and This means that every 10 years there was a new upto-date census information and population. In between forecasting can be used to estimate population based on the available data and the used mathematical model. The results of study indicated that predicated population estimation for the target year 2013 based on census data differed according to the used mathematical model. Geographic information system has been used in this study to link population with the location. Key Words: Egypt s Population history - Census - Population estimation 47

2 Introduction Population counts were reported in ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Hebrews, Persians, and Romans. Many of these early censuses appear to have covered only part of the population, often the men of military age, and the results were generally treated as state secrets. Population is very essential in supporting planning processes, including the design of public facilities (locating parks, sewage treatment plants, libraries, hospitals, transportation infrastructures and private facilities). Population of Egypt, according to a survey conducted in July 2010, is estimated to be around 80,335,036. The estimated rate of growth of population in Egypt is 1.721%. Egypt is considered to be one of the popular countries in Africa. The sex ratio of Egypt population is males per females. The Egypt population is mainly densely and around the Nile basin. The fertile river plains have always attracted people to settle down in this region. Thus the population of Egypt consists of immigrants as well as the local inhabitants. Populated areas constitute only 6% of Egypt s total area and represented 99% of all Egyptians live in the Nile Valley. Sinai population represented approximately 0.6% from Egypt population and the total area of Sinai is square kilometer. The Census is one of the most important national statistical projects. Its results influence the formulation of many political, economic, and social policies, in addition to the implementation of essential programs for raising the standard of living. The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) is responsible about all census process. Egypt s census years were 1947, 1960, 1966, 1976, 1986, 1996 and This means that every 10 years there was a new up-to-date census information and population. In between forecasting can be used to estimate population based on the available data and the used mathematical model. Census process is very hard and time and cost consuming. Censuses provide population numbers, household or family size and composition, and information on sex and age distribution. They often include other demographic, economic and health-related topics as well. The main source of population data are national censuses and related vital statistics, commonly collected by field survey, interviews, and / or mail response. A census produces a record of individuals at a particular instant in time. Population is considered one of important national projects. The main purpose of the census is to provide essential data and information for the socioeconomic planning and policy formulation to raise the standards of living (CAPMAS 1996). Census Stages are four stages: (1) The first stage: is the preparatory stage which had begun about three years prior to census date; (2) The second stage: is concerned with field operation stage in which direct interview method was applied for census enumeration and crow leaders were 48

3 recruited from among the employees of government particular Ministry of Education.The third stage: is the stage of data processing in which about 1000 university graduates were recruited to under take office coding and checking the work in each step. The fourth stage: devoted to verify and finalize the tabular results, as well as dissemination of data, the preliminary census results were issued in a relatively short period of time in order to meet the urgent local and national needs for census data. Population estimation approaches can be grouped into two main categories: (1) Areal interpolation approaches: this approach uses census population data as the input and applies interpolation techniques to obtain a refined population surface. Areal interpolation methods are primarily designed for the zone transformation problem that involves transforming data from one set of spatial units to another. This approach uses census population data as the input and applies interpolation techniques to obtain a refined population surface. Areal interpolation methods can be further grouped into two categories based on if: (Ancillary information exists of Ancillary information not exists). (2) Statistical Modeling approaches: statistical modeling approach is more interested in inferring the relationship between population and other variables for the purpose of estimating the total population for an area. Statistical modeling methods can be further grouped into four categories based on the relationship or the correlation between populations and: (Urban areas Land uses, Dwelling units and Image pixel characteristics). (2-1) Correlation with Urban Areas: this category of methods is a general approach based on a functional relationship between urban areas and population size. This category of methods is a general approach based on a functional relationship between urban areas and population size. (2-2) Correlation with Land Use: this approach is based on correlating population counts with different types of land use areas. (2-3) Correlation with Dwelling Units: the total population of an area can be estimated by multiplying the total number of dwelling units with the number of persons normally living in a dwelling unit (Hsu, 1971; Lo and Chan, 1980). With the advance of very high spatial resolution satellite images remote sensing data and building extraction techniques, population estimation by dwelling unit counts may become a viable approach. The total population of an area can be estimated by multiplying the total number of dwelling units with the number of persons normally living in a dwelling unit. It is also possible to categorize dwelling units and apply a different persons-per-dwelling unit ratio to each category. This ratio can be derived from sample surveys or calculated from census data with the assumption that a single household occupies one dwelling unit. The total number of dwelling units in an 49

4 area may be estimated from remote sensing images. (2-4) pixel approach the population is directly estimated and linked to the information contained in one pixel (Anne Puissant, Webster, 1996; Harvey, 2002). Population has been estimated from satellite image or aerial photos with acceptable accuracy for residential areas in Cairo, Egypt (Adeniyi P., 1983; El- Nokrashy and et al. 1992). Population estimated based on the reflectance in five bands of the sensor Thematic Mapper (TM), LANDSAT5, to estimate the population in the census tracts of a city in Australia (Harvey; 2002; Lu et al.; 2006; Iisaka et al., 1982) have used the images of the sensor ETM+, LANDSAT7, and the spectral mixture model to build an image of the impervious surfaces of a city in the United States of America. Using only this explanatory variable, they have estimated the population in the census tracts of the city. The zonal approach based on of subdividing the city into homogeneous areas (Wu et al., 2005; 2006). Estimation of population in informal settlement communities can be done using high resolution satellite image (Galeon, 2008). Also, high-resolution satellite imagery is a valuable tool for mapping urban areas and extracting land cover information. Ibrahim Shaker et al evaluates a methodology for using Ikonos stereo imagery to determine the height and position of buildings in dense residential areas. A digital terrain model was used with the DSM created from the Ikonos stereo imagery to compute building heights. Study Area In this study, Egypt has been selected as study area. The Area of interest has different types of man made characteristics with rapid growth of population. Figure 1 presents the location map of the stud, Satellite image of Egypt. Demographic data source which has been used in this exploration from Central agency for public mobilization and statistics, «Statistical year book, (2006)». Geography of Egypt Egypt is in the north-eastern corner of Africa. It locates between latitudes 22º and 32ºN, and longitudes 24º and 36ºE. with a total area of km2; It is bordered in the north by the Mediterranean Sea, in the east by the Gaza Strip, Israel and the Red Sea, in the south by Sudan and in the west by Libya. Egypt can be divided into 4 major physical regions: the Nile Valley and Delta, Western Desert, Eastern Desert and Sinai Peninsula. the Sinai Peninsula, is located on the continent of Asia. Nile Valley and Delta covering only about 5.5% of the total area of Egypt, this is the most important region, supporting 99% of the population on 50

5 its cultivated lands. The Nile Delta which covers approximately km2 agriculture in it depends on irrigation from Aswan Dam. Western Desert covers an area of around two-thirds of Egypt s total land area. The Great Sand Sea, Oases and Qattara Depression are located on it. The relatively mountainous Eastern Desert rises abruptly from the Nile and extends over an area of approximately km2. The importance of the Eastern Desert lies in its natural resources, especially oil. Sinai Peninsula is triangular-shaped, about km2 in area and contains mountains in it. The southern side of the peninsula has a sharp escarpment that subsides after a narrow coastal shelf that slopes into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. Egypt Climate Average temperatures in Egypt are between 27 C and 32 C in summer, and up to 43 C on the Red Sea coast. Winter temperatures average between 13 C and 21 C. A steady wind from the northwest helps lower temperatures near the Mediterranean coast. The Khamaseen is a wind that blows from the south in spring, bringing sand and dust, and sometimes raises the temperature in the desert to more than 100 F (38 C). Most of Egypt s rain falls in the winter months. On a very thin strip of the northern coast rainfalls between October and March. Snow falls on Sinai s mountains and some of the north coastal cities. Due to the aridity of Egypt s climate, population centres are concentrated along the narrow Nile Valley and Delta, meaning that about 99% of the population uses only about 5.5% of the total land area. Demographics of Egypt Egypt is the most populated country in the Middle East and the third most populous on the African continent, at about 80 million inhabitants in Population grew rapidly from due to medical advances and increases in agricultural productivity, enabled by the Green Revolution.Egypt s population was estimated at only 3 million when Napoleon invaded the country in In 1939, Egypt had a population of 16.5 million. The population is concentrated along the Nile (notably Cairo and Alexandria), in the Delta and near the Suez Canal. Approximately 90% of the population adheres to Islam and most of the rest to Christianity, primarily the Coptic Orthodox denomination. Egyptians can be divided demographically into those who live in the major urban centers and the fellahin or farmers of rural villages. 51

6 Egypt s Rulers 1- Ancient Egypt Period A unified kingdom was founded c BC by King Menes, leading to a seris of dynasties that ruled Egypt for the next three millennia. a- The Old Kingdom Period Old kingdom period from BC, which constructed many pyramids. b- The Middle Kingdom Period The kingdom period was from BC. It reached the peak at 2040 BC during the region of Pharaoh Amenemhat III. The Hyksos invaders took over much of Lower Egypt around 1650 BC and founded a new capital at Avaris. They were driven out by an Upper Egyptian force led by Ahmose I who relocated the capital from Memphis to Thebes. c- The New Kingdom Period The New kingdom period from BC began with the Eighteenth Dynasty, marking the rise of Egypt as an international power that expanded during its greatest extension to an empire as far south as Tombos in Nubia, and included parts of the Levant in the east. This period is noted for some of the most well known Pharaohs. 2- Ptolemaic Period In 332 BC, Alexander the Great conquered Egypt with little resistance from the Persians and was welcomed by the Egyptians as a deliverer. The Greek Ptolemaic queen is Cleopatra VII and her son by Julius Caesar, Caesarion at the Temple of Dendara. The Ptolemaic Kingdom was a powerful Hellenistic state, extending from southern Syria in the east, to Cyrene to the west, and south to the frontier with Nubia. Alexandria became the capital city and a center of Greek culture and trade. Diocletian s reign marked the transition from the Roman to the Byzantine era in Egypt, when a great number of Egyptian Christians were persecuted. 52

7 3- Roman and Byzantine Period Egypt became a province of the Roman Empire in 30 BC, following the defeat of Marc Antony and Ptolemaic Queen Cleopatra VII by Octavian (later Emperor Augustus) in the Battle of Actium. The Byzantines were able to regain control of the country invasion early in the 7th century, until , when Egypt was invaded by the Islamic Empire. 4- Islamic Period Egypt under Islamic Caliphate: an army of 4,000 Arabs led by Amr Ibn Al- Aas was sent by the Caliph Umar, successor to Muhammad, to spread Islamic rule to the west. The Arabs crossed into Egypt from Palestine in December 639 AD, and advanced rapidly into the Nile Delta. After that Fatimid, Ayyubid and Mamluk state from 909 to Ottoman Period the Nile Delta. They continued to govern the country until the conquest of Egypt by the Ottoman Turks in 1517, after which it became a province of the Ottoman Empire. The mid-14th-century Black Death killed about 40% of the country s population. 6- French Invasion of Egypt French Invasion of Egypt began in 1798 and ended at Mohammed Ali Period Mohammed Ali emerged as a dominant figure and in 1805 was acknowledged by the Ottoman Sultan in Istanbul. Mohammed Ali and his family ruled Egypt until the revolution of British Period British rule lasted from 1882 when the British succeeded in defeating the Egyptian Army at Tel El Kabir at and took control of the country until the revolution of revolution made Egypt a republic. 9- Republican Period After the revolution of On 18 June 1953, the Egyptian Republic was declared, with General Mohammed Naguib as the first President of the Republic. Covenant Republican were reign of: Abdul Nasserr, Sadat, Mubarak s rule and Mohamed Morsi 53

8 Factors affecting populations Growth The major reason for population changes, whether in an individual country or for the whole world, is the change in birth and death rates. The birth rate is the number of live babies born in a year for every 1000 people in the total population. Death rates are number of people dying per 1000 people. When birth rates are higher than death rates the population of an area will increase. Over the past 150 years improvements in health care and sanitation around the world have led to a drop in the death rate. While birth rates have dropped in. Therefore the number of people in the world has grown rapidly. Population s growth is affected by many factors: the main natural factors are: Birth rates: the number of births per 1000 capita in a year Death rates: the number of deaths per 1000 capita in a year Immigration: is people or animals moving and settling in a country or region to which they are not native Emigration: the relocation of people from one country to reside in another Other factors that affect the change in a population s growth include the impact of: Urbanization Emancipation of women Agricultural changes Education Demographic data from Census Egypt is famous for being the oldest civilizations on earth, where they began the Egyptian exodus to the banks of the Nile and settled and began to cultivate the land and livestock since about 10,000 years ago. This is ensured by papyrus manuscripts, ancient monuments in Pharaonic temples. Table 1 shows Egypt population in old era. Figure 2 presents Pie chart of Egypt population in old era. Table 2 shows Egypt population in modern era. Figure 3 present column Chart of Egypt populations in modern era. Figure 4 density (inhabitants/km2) of Egypt in modern era. Administrative Borders Egypt is divided into 27 governorates divided as upper governorates and governorates covering Sinai and the deserts that lie west and east of the Nile. The governorates are further divided into regions (Markaz). Markaz contain towns and villages. Each governorate has a capital, sometimes carrying the 54

9 same name as the governorate. Figure 5 presents administration borders of Egypt Governorates. Results 1- Population Estimation from Census Data: One of the main goals of the research is population estimation for the target year For accurate forecasting population from census data the last three censuses has been used 1986, 1996 and In this case the relationship of the trend forecasting between a population and time can be represented using linear regression equation or second degree equation. Population estimation can be done in many levels: country, governorate, Qismn, city and village. In these research two levels of population estimation has been applied in level of Country and in the level of City. a- Level of Country «Egypt» The last three census data in the level of country «Egypt» 1986, 1996 and 2006 were , and capita as shown in table 4. The predicted population of Egypt the target year 2013, using second order model and linear regression model are and capita.difference between the predicated population using the two used models is capita, the percentage of difference = 3.22 %. b- Level of City «Population of Hasna City» Hasna city is the capital of Hasna Markez of North Sinai Governorate, and is situated on the model of Sinai Peninsula. Hasna city is divided into 20 villages. Table 3 presents census data and predicted population of Hasna City The last three census data in the level of Hasna city 1986, 1996 and 2006 were 1340, 1799 and 2707 capita. The predicted population of Hasna City at the target year 2013 using second order model and linear regression model are 3610 and 3111 capita. Difference between the predicated population using the two used models is 173 capita, the percentage of difference = 5.88 %. 2- Produced Density Maps Population density is a measurement of the number of people in an area. It is an average number. Population density is calculated by dividing the number of people by area. Population density is usually shown as the number of people per square kilometer. Iintegration of Geographic Information System GIS and census data has been used to link the population information with location to produce density maps. 55

10 A- Egypt Governorates Based on table 3 which shows mid Year (2006) Egypt Governorate population, figure 5 which present administration borders of Egypt Governorates and using Arcgis software the density map of Egypt Governorates mid Year (2006) has been produced see figure 7. One can conclude that: - Egypt population distribution is uneven. Some areas have a high population density while others have a low population density. Areas of high population density tend. - The focus of most of the population of Egypt in the Nile Valley. - The highest population is in Cairo Governorate. - The lowest population is in New Valley Governorate. - The highest population density is in Cairo Governorate. - The lowest population density is in New Valley Governorate. B- Qisms North Sinai Also, based on table 5 presents population of Qisms North Sinai census And by using ARCGIS software the population distributions 2006 and density map 2013 of Qisms North Sinai Governorate has been produced see figure 8a and figure 8b. One can conclude that: Qisms North Sinai Governorate population distribution is uneven. Some Qisms have a high population density while others have a low population density relatively. - The highest population of Qisms North Sinai Governorate is in Qism Arish 1. - The lowest population is in Qism police Qusema - The highest population density is in Qism Arish 2 - The lowest population density is in Qism Nekhel. Factors Affecting Population Density There are natural or Physical Factors and human factors affect population density. The Physical Factors are. (1) Shape and height of land (Topography): (2) Resources (3) Climate. Human factors are. (1) Political): (2) Social and (3) Economic. Sparsely populated places tend to be difficult places to live. Places which are sparsely populated contain few people. Densely populated Places tend to be easy places to live. Places which are densely populated contain many people. 56

11 Conclusions The obtained results demonstrated that Egypt population still focused in the Nile Valley from the old era until the present era. Population estimation in between census is very essential for decision maker to use it in supporting planning processes. Accurate prediction of population estimation should use the suitable regression model for the available data for each level (country, Qism, city and village). Percentage of difference = 3.22% and 5.88% in the predicted population of Egypt and Hasna city based on second order model and linear regression model. Linking population with the location using Geographic information good indication for and more accurate than census data only. More research is needed to improve the population estimation through development of suitable models using remotely sensed data. References: 1. Adeniyi P., 1983, An aerial photographic method for estimating urban population, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Vol. 49, N 4, pp Central agency for public mobilisation and statistics, «Statistical year book, (2006)». 3. Central agency for public mobilisation and statistics, «Statistical year book, (1996)». 4. Central agency for public mobilisation and statistics, «Statistical year book, (1986)». 5. El-Nokrashy M. A., Ibrahim M. Y., Eilawa M. A., Ramzi A. I,, (1992) Evaluation of Using Photogrammetry in Parking Studies, CERM Magazine, El-azher university, vol.(14) no(11), Pp Harvey, J., Estimating census district populations from satellite imagery: some approaches and limitations. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 23 (10), pp

12 7. Harvey, J., 2002a. Population estimation models based on individual TM pixels. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 72(2), pp Ibrahim F. Shaker, Amr Abd-Elrahman, Ahmed K. Abdel-Gawad and Mohamed A. Sherief , «Building Extraction from High Resolution Space Images in High Density Residential Areas in the Great Cairo Region «Remote Sens, 3, ; doi: / rs Lo C.P., Chan H.F., 1980, Rural population estimation from aerial photographs, Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, vol. 46, pp Anne Puissant, 2010 Estimating Population Using Remote Sensing Imagery Department of Geography Image, Ville, Environment Laboratory, University of Strasbourg, France 11. Galeon F., 2008, Estimation Of Population In Informal Settlement Communities Using High Resolution Satellite Image, The International Archives Of The Photogrammetry: Remote Sensing And Spatial Information Sciences, 37 (B4), Beijing. 12. Harvey J.T., 2002, Estimation Census District Population From Satellite Imagery: some approaches and limitations, International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol.23, N 10, pp Hsu Shin-Yi, 1971, Population Estimation, Photogrammetric Engineering, pp Iisaka J.; Hegedus, E Population Estimation From Landsat Imagery. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 12, p Wu C., Murray A., 2006, Population Estimation Using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Imagery, 16. Wu S., Qiu X., Wang L., 2005, Population Estimation Methods in GIS and Remote Sensing: A Review,GIScience &Remote Sensing, Vol. 42, N 1, pp

13 Figure 1 Location map of the study area, Satellite image of Egypt Table 1 Egypt population in old era Era Before the dynasties Old Kingdom Pharaonic era Middle Kingdom Pharaonic era New Kingdom Pharaonic era Islamic era Napoleonic era Muhammad Ali era Population 59

14 Figure 2 Egypt populations in old Era Table 2 Egypt population in modern era Year Population Density (inhabitants/km2)

15 Figure 3 Egypt populations in modern era. Figure 4 Density (inhabitants/km2) of Egypt in modern era 61

16 Figure 5 Administration borders of Egypt Governorates 62

17 Table 3 Mid Year (2006) Egypt Governorate population Sr. Governorate Capital Location Population (2006) Area (km2) Density/ km2 (2006) 1 Alexandria Alexandria Northern Aswan Aswan Upper Asyut Asyut Upper Beheira Damanhur Lower Beni Suef Beni Suef Upper Cairo Cairo Middle Dkahlia Mansura Lower Damietta Damietta Lower Faiyum Faiyum Upper Gharbia Tanta Lower Giza Giza Upper Ismailia Ismailia Canal Kafr EL-Sheikh Kafr EL- Sheikh Lower Luxor Luxor Upper Matruh Marsa Matruh Western Minya Minya Upper Monufia Shibin el-kom Lower New Valley Kharga Western North Sinai Arish Sinai Port said Port said Canal Qalyubia Banha Lower Qena Qena Upper Red sea Hurghada Eastern Sharqia Zagazig Upper Sohag Sohag Upper South Sinai el-tor Sinai Suez Suez Canal Total

18 Alexandria Aswan Asyut Beheira Beni Suef Cairo Dkahlia Damietta Faiyum Gharbia Giza Ismailia Kafr EL-Sheikh Luxor Matruh Minya Monufia New Valley North Sinai Port said Qalyubia Qena Red sea Sharqia Sohag South Sinai Suez Figure 6 Mid Year (2006) Egypt Governorate population Table 4 Census data and predicted population of Egypt 2013 Census Year Population (Capita) Used function or model Predicated population 2013 (Capita) Difference In Pop. % of Difference Y= X² X second order model Y = X linear regression model R=

19 Table 5 Census data and predicted population of Hasna City 2013 Year X Pop. Census Y Used function or model Predicted Pop Predicted Pop Difference In Pop. % of Difference Y = X² X second order model Y = X linear regression model R = Figure 7 Density map of Egypt Governorates mid Year (2006) 65

20 Table 6 Population of Qism North Sinai census 2006 Qism Census population 2006 Area Density 2006 Predicted population 2013 Density 2013 Arish Arish Arish Arish Ber El Abd Hasna Nekhel Sheikh Zuwayid Rafah Police Romana police Qusema Figure 8a Population distributions 2013 of Qisms North Sinai Governorate Figure 8b Density map 2013 of Qisms North Sinai Governorate 66

21 دراسة سكان مصر اعتمادا على تعداد السكان ونظم المعلومات الجغرافية الملخص: أحمد إبراهيم رمزي (NARSS) الهيئة القومية االستشعار من البعد وعلوم الفضاء مصر تشتهر كونها أقدم الحضارات على وجه األرض حيث بدأت هجرة المصريين إلى ضفاف النيل واستقرت وبدأت في زراعة األرض وتربية المواشي منذ حوالي سنة مضت. سجل المصريون القدماء المواليد والوفيات في سجالت رسمية منظمة واطلق عليها اسم )سجالت الحياة( كما حرص المصريون على إنشاء أرشيف مركزي يطلق عليه األرشيف الملكي يحتفظون فيه بالوثائق الرسمية. وكان عدد سكان مصر فقط مئات اآلالف قبل عصر االسرات )5000 قبل الميالد قبل الميالد(. أن أول تعداد للسكان في العصور الحديثة كان عام 1800 وقدر عدد سكان ب 2.5 مليون شخص. وفي التاريخ الحديث كان تعداد سكان مصر في عام 2006 )آخر تعداد( هو شخص. األهداف الرئيسية لهذا البحث هي استكشاف عدد سكان مصر عبر العصور وكذلك التنبؤ بعدد السكان الذي هو ضروري جدا لتخطيط المدن وتقييم المخاطر الطبيعية والوقاية من الكوارث واالستجابة لها والبيئية والنقل والتخطيط وصنع القرار االقتصادي وتقييم جودة الحياة. في مصر سنوات التعداد هي اعوام و وهذا يعني أن كل 10 سنوات هناك بيانات ومعلومات تعداد حديثة عن السكان. وفي السنوات التي ليس بها تعداد يمكن التنبؤ بعدد السكان وفقا للبيانات المتاحة وباستخدام نموذج حسابي. و قد أشارت نتائج الدراسة إلى أن التنبؤ بعدد السكان لعام 2013 وهو عام الهدف المطلوب واعتمادا على بيانات التعداد تختلف وفقا للنموذج الحسابي المستخدم. و قد استخدم في هذه الدراسه نظم المعلومات الجغراقية لربط عدد السكان بالمكان. 67