Dodge Construction Outlook 2018

Transcription

1 Dodge Construction Outlook 2018 Prepared for AGC Colorado Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics

2 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Moderate economic expansion driven by subdued employment and productivity growth GDP Pattern: History Forecast % +2.6% +1.6% +2.3% +2.6% Hurricane/Fire Impact -0.5% ($200 bil) Trump Impact: Stimulate the Economy: Deregulation Affordable Care Act Tax Cuts Infrastructure Area of Concern : Trade War: Mexico & China Budget Deficit Distractions

3 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook For consumption to continue and employment growth to slow gradually, wages need to increase.

4 U.S. Construction Dodge Momentum Index The Dodge Momentum Index - a measure of projects in planning - Note: strength of Private sector work The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) tracks the first (or initial) reports for nonresidential building projects at the planning stage. Excludes mfg. buildings. The DMI bottomed out in July 2011, and has been trending upward since then. The initial increases were shown by the commercial component leveled off in first half 2015, then showed renewed growth in second half 2015 and Institutional building picked up in 2013, then leveled off in , renewed growth in 2016.

5 U.S. Construction Market Outlook Points of Perspective

6 Infrastructure Considerations Potential for Consensus but framework is not clear Current Status Highway Trust Fund Operating at a Deficit Consensus: Infrastructure Under funded Trump Plan $1 Trillion program $200 Billion Public Contribution 80+% Tax Reductions Reduced Lending Costs Revenue Sources Offset by Payroll Taxes Local Funding 75% of Current funding from State Impact of Tax Plan on Muni Bonds

7 State Gross Domestic Product While Q1 nationally was soft, CO continued to grow

8 State Unemployment Meanwhile CO continues to grow the labor force

9 Colorado: Residential Single Family continues to climb, but Multi is leveling off. Single Family Multi Family $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $ $500,000 $

10 Colorado: Residential Note the number of projects in design PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE APARTMENS/CONDOS/MIXED USE Sheridan Station Residences DENVER Design Development $33,500,000 Alta Sobo Station Apartments DENVER Construction Documents $31,800,000 Jefferson View Apartments DENVER Design Development $25,000,000 Watermark Briargate Crossing COLORADO SPRINGS Start $25,000,000 Delaware Lofts Apartments DENVER Construction Documents $17,700,000 Wellington Apartments DENVER Construction Documents $15,000,000 The Standard at Fort Collins Apartments FORT COLLINS Design Development $15,000,000 Arrow at Winter Park Mixed Use Development WINTER PARK Design Development $25,000,000 One Snowmass Mixed Use Bldgs 7 & 8 Additions SNOWMASS VILLAGE Start; Construction Document $65,000,000 St Anthony's Mixed Use Building DENVER Design Development $36,000,000 Market Station Mixed-Use Development DENVER Design Development $150,000,000 Riverwalk at Castle Rock Mixed Use Development CASTLE ROCK Construction Documents $60,000,000 Zia Affordable Apartments DENVER Design Development $110,000,000 The Walcott Apartments - Underground Parking DENVER Design Development $15,000,000 Stanley Apartments-Parking on Grade Level AURORA Bid Results $15,000,000 Modera LoHi Apartments DENVER Design Development $25,000,000 GrandView LoHi Condo Development DENVER Design Development $20,000,000 ASSISTED LIVING Golden Lodge Assisted Living & Memory Care GOLDEN Start $25,000,000 Village Cooperative of Lakewood LAKEWOOD GC Bidding-Invitation $10,000,000

11 U.S. Multifamily Housing Top 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2017 vs Based on dollars.

12 Colorado: Office & Hotel Office is continuing an upward climb, while hotel is declining Office $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Hotel $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $ $100,000 $

13 Colorado: Office & Hotel Office is continuing an upward climb, while hotel is declining PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE OFFICE/HOTEL/MIXED USE Trimble Navigation Office Bldg Westmoor WESTMINSTER Start $15,000,000 RT Logic Office Building (Ph 2 Add) COLORADO SPRINGS Start $10,000,000 Building 1 Wings 5,4 & Partial Spine BOULDER Design Development $5,000,000 2nd + Detroit Mixed Use Office Building DENVER Construction Documents $37,500,000 DHA Central Offices (Design/Build) DENVER Start $12,000,000 Platte River Power Authority Headquarters Campus NEGOTIATFORT COLLINS Design Development $10,000,000 DIA Mixed Use Dev (MASTER REPORT) COMMERCE CITY Phased $150,000,000 Mercury Village Office/Retail Dev (MASTER REPORT) DURANGO Design Development $10,000,000 Parkway Circle Mixed Use (Ph 2) (MASTER REPORT) Broomfield Design Development $15,000,000 Westin Hotel (Greenwood Village CO) GREENWOOD VILLAGE Construction; Construction Do $25,000,000 Element Hotel by Marriott (Denver CO) DENVER Construction Documents $24,500,000 Courtyard by Marriott Centerra LOVELAND Start; Construction Documents $10,000,000

14 U.S. Commercial Office Buildings Top 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2017 vs Based on dollars.

15 Colorado: Retail & Warehouse $700,000 The sectors serve overlapping demand Retail $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ Warehouse $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $ $100,000 $

16 Colorado: Retail & Warehouse The sectors serve overlapping demand PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE RETAIL/MIXED USE/WAREHOUSE Office/Warehouse Bldg Aurora Commerce Center Aurora Construction Documents $25,000,000 Office/Warehouse C at Louisville Corporate CTC LOUISVILLE Construction Documents $10,000,000 Platte River Power Authority Headquarters Campus NEGOTIATFORT COLLINS Design Development $10,000,000 Medical Supply Office/Warehouse Bldg Interpark BROOMFIELD Start $10,000,000 Office/Warehouse Louisville Corporate CTC LOUISVILLE Construction Documents $10,000,000 Oneida Park Shopping Center Renovation DENVER Design Development $10,000,000 Colorado Springs (CO) Wal-Mart Neighborhood Mkt 7313 COLORADO SPRINGS Design Development $11,000,000 Carriage Hills Retail Marketplace (MASTER REPORT) Frederick Design Development $10,000,000 Powers Pointe Commercial Center (MASTER REPORT) COLORADO SPRINGS Design Development $15,000,000

17 Colorado: Education & Public $1,600,000 $1,400,000 Education is gradually trending up, other public spending is flat. Education $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Public $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $ $100,000 $

18 Colorado: Education & Public Education has a strong pipeline. PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE EDUCATION RFQ/AE: ECOT Capital Renewal & Renovation CP BOULDER Bidding; Pre-Design $18,300,000 CSU Richardson Design Center (Design/Build) FORT COLLINS Start $13,200,000 Weld County High School #2 - Severance SEVERANCE Bid Results $52,230,340 Eagle Valley High School Addn/Renovs (Design/Build) GYPSUM Start $31,200,000 Eagle Valley Middle School Addn/Renovs EAGLE Start $25,700,000 Platt Middle School (Renovations) BOULDER Construction Documents $14,363,300 Fairview High School (Improvements) BOULDER Construction Documents $13,987,000 Centennial Middle School Improvements BOULDER Design Development $10,151,310 Riverdale Ball Fields THORNTON Bidding $9,000,000 Northeast Elementary Expansion BRIGHTON Design Development $10,000,000 Aurora Public Schools November 2016 Bond Improvements AURORA Design Development $280,000,000 Charter Schools (MASTER REPORT) DENVER Design Development $90,000,000

19 U.S. Institutional Educational Buildings Top 10 States K-12 School Construction 9 Months year-to-date, 2017 vs Based on dollars.

20 Colorado: Health Uncertainty Complicates Investment $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ $

21 Colorado: Health Uncertainty Complicates Investment PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE HEALTH Penrose Hospital - (MASTER REPORT) COLORADO SPRINGS Design Development $15,000,000 Medical Center Aurora Medical/Surgical Expansion AURORA Design Development $10,000,000 Swedish Medical Center4th/6th Flr Major Renovations ENGLEWOOD Start $10,000,000 Residential Rehabilitation Treatment AURORA Bid Results $5,000,000 Penrose St Francis Health Svcs Campus (MASTER REPORT) COLORADO SPRINGS Design Development $50,000,000 Bramming Farm North Suburban Medical Center (MASTER REPThornton Design Development $10,000,000 Kaiser Permanente Medical Clinics (MASTER REPORT) VARIOUS Design Development $10,000,000 Orthopaedic Center of the Rockies (add) LOVELAND Start $10,000,000

22 U.S. Institutional Healthcare Facilities Top 10 States Healthcare Facilities 9 Months year-to-date, 2017 vs Based on dollars.

23 Colorado: Highways & Water Expect increases in infrastructure Highways $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ Water $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $ $50,000 $

24 Colorado: Highways & Water Expect increases in infrastructure PROJECTS CITY STAGE EST VALUE PUBLIC WORKS Water Treatment Plant/System Improvements (MASTER REPOCOLORADO SPRINGS Design Development $10,000,000 RFQ/GC: 6th Avenue Parkway Extension (SH 30 to E470) AURORA Bidding; Design Development $17,000,000 CO/DOT: Bridge Structure Repair (CO 003) N/A Bid Results $11,118,295 CO/DOT: SH 133Overlay Guardrail Improvements AGATE Bidding $5,000,000 CO/DOT: US 34D Box Culvert & Pavement Rehabilitation(CO 00GREELEY Bidding $5,000,000 CO/DOT: US 40 Signage & Surface Rehabilitation (CO 003) N/A Bidding $5,000,000 CO/DOT: I-70 East Side Vail Pass Rehabilitation (CO 004) N/A Bidding $5,000,000 CO/DOT: US 34 Roadway Improvement N/A Start $120,400,900 Riverdale Ball Fields THORNTON Bidding $9,000, Runway 7-25 Complex Lighting Pavement Rehabilitation DENVER Bidding $15,000,000

25 Colorado: Total Construction Continued growth Structure % Chge AMUSE $139,764 $178,201 $262,293 $343,334 $383,771 $434,714 $332,880 $403, % BRIDGE $187,082 $269,348 $110,878 $261,515 $336,025 $331,504 $163,232 $238, % EDUC $803,220 $527,830 $692,610 $941,743 $734,824 $1,174,144 $1,311,589 $1,383, % HEALTH $1,448,642 $1,049,012 $530,180 $471,233 $747,827 $684,010 $1,235,018 $971, % HIGHWAY $430,190 $641,556 $585,843 $619,380 $463,270 $885,415 $638,831 $802, % HOTEL $161,073 $327,141 $218,468 $205,888 $412,296 $734,393 $600,651 $528, % MFG $98,270 $113,610 $125,433 $158,080 $150,811 $175,924 $223,321 $199, % MULTI FAM $692,962 $1,293,957 $1,682,095 $1,944,319 $1,940,331 $2,660,899 $2,741,163 $2,752, % OFFICE $274,127 $283,335 $478,552 $658,492 $739,353 $1,111,518 $1,288,074 $1,605, % ONEFAM $2,632,296 $4,003,131 $5,252,363 $5,486,549 $6,543,627 $7,220,454 $8,618,366 $9,847, % PUB $199,783 $170,807 $97,007 $106,523 $121,030 $124,116 $128,987 $159, % REL $50,895 $48,185 $30,393 $53,232 $27,939 $15,336 $20,000 $26, % RETAIL $177,301 $281,644 $321,391 $392,918 $412,403 $392,730 $412,708 $412, % SEWERS $597,938 $89,635 $345,813 $116,230 $176,028 $153,746 $167,338 $208, % WARENM $57,262 $126,052 $145,041 $320,355 $317,612 $480,750 $645,289 $712, % WATER $166,580 $159,495 $374,440 $293,421 $218,475 $184,047 $247,534 $239, % TOTAL $9,587,506 $12,393,249 $14,369,411 $14,339,040 $16,532,726 $18,317,050 $21,582,519 $23,022, %

26 PARTNERING TO WIN AGC CO PlanRoom powered by Dodge: The PlanRoom gives AGC members access to current Projects out to bid The PlanRoom is a NETWORKING Tool For more information go to: Or Cliff.brewis@construction.com

27 QUESTIONS? Cliff Brewis V P Operations Dodge Data & Analytics Cliff.brewis@construction.com