Jin Murakami City University of Hong Kong

Transcription

1 Institute of Urban and Regional Development (IURD) TRANSIT & CITIES CONFERENCE UC Berkeley March 20-21, 2014 Plenary Session 4: The Economics of Sustainable Transit Jin Murakami City University of Hong Kong March 21, Berkeley CA Airport Access Transit & Economic Benefits - Findings from Asia -

2 Mega Investment in Airport Access Lines across the World BART SFO Extension, 2003 Shenzhen Metro Airport Line, 2015 Tokyo Narita Sky Access, 2010 HK Airport Core Program, 1998 Intercity Travel Market & Intracity Last-Mile Cost Hong Kong s Airport Express Line (1998) Intercity Travel Cost Last-Mile Access Cost *Generalized by the finance & business service sector s hourly GDP per worker in Hong Kong, 2012 Cost HK$ 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, % 11.8% 10.3% 12.9% 1,000 0 HSR Air HSR Air HK - Beijing 1,970 km (Mid-Haul) HK - Wuhan 910 km (Short-Haul) Ground Transportation Access Market Share of Airport Express Line, % 35,000 passengers per day (Gold Standard???) Airport Express Other (Bus, Taxi etc.) Insufficient User Benefit? External Economic Benefit (Justification for Mega Investment) Sources: Jin Murakami with Weimin Lin (2013); MTR Corporation (2013)

3 Does Airport Access Transit Increase Economic Productivity? 90 Cities with the 100 Busiest Airports Determinants of GMP per Capita 2012 (Log Log) N = 90 World Busiest Airport Cities : OLS R squared =.44 : 2SLS R squared =.44 Instrumented: Access Time by Transit Key Facts: Rail Access: 57 of 90 airport cities Ave. Population: 8.9 million Ave. Access Time: 35.3 minutes Ave. Generalized Access Cost: $16.1 Ave. GMP per Capita: $41,095 Two Way Causality: Airport Access Investment Elasticity City s Economic Productivity Access time by transit 0.27***, 0.32*** Source: Jin Murakami with Yurika Matsui & Hironori Kato (2014) The University of Tokyo Airport Access & Worker Productivity within Tokyo Determinants of Value Added per Worker, 267 municipalities within Tokyo, 2012 : OLS R 2 = 0.53 : 2SLS R 2 = 0.53 Instrumented: Rail access time Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR): Coefficients of Rail Access Time Elasticity Rail access time 0.29***, 0.38*** Two Way Causality & Spatial Effect: Attract firms Finance Economy Agglomeration Airport Access Investment Worker s Productivity Demand Airport Access Investment Finance Agglomeration Worker s Productivity Source: Jin Murakami with Yurika Matsui & Hironori Kato (2014) The University of Tokyo Attract firms

4 Scenario Test: Airport Access for Tokyo s Global Competitiveness? New Investment Proposal (2013) Tokyo Station Scenario The (foreign) finance sector s share increases in the 10 CBD wards by 12.5%. Access travel time to Haneda Airport is reduced by 10 minutes USD148,000 Haneda Airport USD151,400 There is no locational redistribution of activities within the metropolitan area. Impact on GMP per Capita Ranking among the 90 Airport Cities 1 st Present New Investment Added value per worker in the 10 CBD wards 41 Tokyo 44 st Tokyo th (3 Rank up) (Present) Debatable & Missing Points Waiting, baggage handling, and delaying costs at airports are much greater than last mile access/egress costs? Airline vs. HSR; With low ridership, reduction in traffic congestion, car parking costs, and emissions around airports could be sufficient to justify such large public spending in airport access transit? environmental outcomes; Non business purpose travelers and local small business owners gain external economic benefits? impact on tourism; Airport access transit enhances international business competitiveness at the expense of local community livability in redistributive ways? lack of place making and social equity; How to finance competitive and sustainable airport cities or the Aerotropolis in practice? proactive land use plans and specific value capture techniques along airport access transit corridors

5 Land Value Capture Practice along HK s Airport Express Line RP Joint Developments & Ave. Rents MTR Corporation s Net Profit % 13% Total US$19.4 b % 34% Railway and related operations Property developments Station commercial business Rental and management businesses Sources: Murakami & Cheung (2014); Cervero & Murakami (2009); Al, Stefan (2014); Suzuki et al. (2014) Jin Murakami City University of Hong Kong admin@jinmurakami.net March 21, Berkeley CA Acknowledgements: Ms. Yurika Matsui, The University of Tokyo Prof. Hironori Kato, The University of Tokyo Mr. Weimin Lin, City University of Hong Kong

6 References: Cervero, Robert, and Jin Murakami. Rail and Property Development in Hong Kong: Experiences and Extensions. Urban Studies 46, no. 10 (August 14, 2009): doi: / Lin, Weimin. The Last Mile Costs of Intercity Transportation Services in Hong Kong : A Spatial and Cross Industrial Analysis. Dissertation. Hong Kong SAR, China: City University of Hong Kong, July (Supervisor: Dr. Jin Murakami) Matsui, Yurika. Impact of Rail Access to International Airport on Economic Productivity: Case Studies across the World Busiest Cities and the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Thesis. Tokyo, Japan: The University of Tokyo, February (Supervisor: Prof. Hironori Kato) MTR Corporation. Annual Report 2012: Sharing Our Growth. Hong Kong, Murakami, Jin, Weimin Lin, Yi Zhang, and Leo Cheung. Airport Access Transit and Urban Development: A Spatial Analysis on Last Mile Costs, Residential Profiles, and Business Agglomerations in Hong Kong. Hong Kong SAR, China: City University of Hong Kong (Forthcoming in 2014). Suzuki, Hiroaki, Jin Murakami, Yu Hung Hong, and Beth Tamayose. Financing Transit with Land Values: Adapting Development based Land Value Capture in Developing Countries. The World Bank. Urban Development Series. Washington, D.C., (Forthcoming in 2014).