Statistical Bulletin No.40 April 2018

Transcription

1 Statistical Bulletin No.40 April 2018 SETE Institute 34 Amalias Avenue Athens, Greece SETE Intelligence Republishing is permitted provided the source is referenced

2 At a glance Sources: Civil Aviation Authority, Athens International Airport, Border Checkpoints, OECD, ELSTAT, BoG, Labour Force Survey, Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research Processing: SETE Intelligence Statistical Bulletin April

3 Contents Airport Arrivals 6 International arrivals at main Greek airports 7 Domestic arrivals at main Greek airports 10 Airline Seat Scheduling 13 Road Arrivals 18 Demand for Hotel Accommodation Services 23 Type of trip to Greece 25 Top-5 Markets for Greece 26 Hotel prices 34 Greek market 44 Travel Balance 46 February Arrivals 47 Receipts 49 Macroeconomic developments 51 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 57 Statistical Bulletin April

4 Acknowledgements The production of this bulletin is based partly on available public sources, and partly on data provided by various agencies (Civil Aviation Authority, Athens International Airport, Border Checkpoints, National Flight Coordination Authority, Association of Greek Passenger Shipping Companies), to whom we are especially grateful. The Editors Aris Ikkos Evangelia Lamprou Dimitris Maroulis Research Director Researcher Statistician Economist SETE Institute SETE Institute Disclaimer This Bulletin publishes data obtained from other sources and not from primary INSETE surveys. Though INSETE makes every effort to ensure the sources are valid and the republished data is correct, it is not liable to third parties, nor for the use they make of the data in the Bulletin. We also note that the data presented in various tables of the Bulletin are often temporary and subject to subsequent revision. A short presentation of the key sources SETE Intelligence uses, along with information on the methods used by each source/survey and the differences between them, is available here. The different methodology used by each of the above sources as well as the variable measured in each case, require that as many sources as possible are combined to achieve a comprehensive overview of the issues under examination. For further information, clarification or suggestions, please contact the editors. Statistical Bulletin April

5 Comments-Observations on the Tables and Data of the Bulletin International Airport Arrivals: (1) The data reflect arrivals of passengers of international flights irrespective of domicile. An exception are data from the Athens airport which are related only to foreign residents. (2) The data for the last available month for the Athens International Airport are an estimate of SETE Intelligence. (3) Airports are classified as follows: Dodecanese: Rhodes - Kos - Karpathos, Crete: Heraklion - Chania, Ionian: Corfu - Zakynthos - Kefalonia - Aktio, Cyclades: Mykonos - Santorini, Peloponnese: Araxos - Kalamata, Others: Samos - Skiathos - Kavala - Lesvos. (4) Type Ι: Civil Aviation Authority final data - Type II: Civil Aviation Authority temporary data - subject to review. Domestic arrivals at main Greek airports: (1) Passengers travelling round trip are counted twice: both when arriving at their destination and when returning home. (2) The data for the last available month for the Athens International Airport are an estimate of SETE Intelligence. (3) Airports are classified as follows: Dodecanese: Rhodes - Kos - Karpathos, Crete: Heraklion - Chania, Ionian: Corfu - Zakynthos - Kefalonia - Aktio, Cyclades: Mykonos - Santorini - Paros, Others: Samos - Skiathos - Kavala - Lesvos. (4) Type Ι: Civil Aviation Authority final data - Type II: Civil Aviation Authority temporary data - subject to review. Airline Seat Scheduling: The data are provided by the Hellenic Slot Coordination Authority for all airports, with the exception of the AIA. The data were exported on 31/3/2018. The data provide a snapshot for the specific point in time on 31/3/2018. Any cancellations or extra flights added immediately after data export will be seen when the data are next exported. As a result, the total number of scheduled seats may vary from month to month. The same applies for 2017, since the same snapshot was used. Road Arrivals: Road arrivals are recorded by the local police departments based on nationality, irrespective of the permanent domicile. Consequently, the data include immigrants in Greece returning from trips abroad. Countries are classified as follows: Albania: Kakavia - Krystallopigi - Sagiada - Mertzani, Bulgaria: Ormenio - Kyprinos - Nymfea - Promachonas - Exochi - Ag. Konstantinos, FYROM: Evzoni - Doirani - Niki, Turkey: Kastanies - Kipoi. Demand for Hotel Accommodation Services: data are presented relating to the demand for hotel accommodation from international markets and Greece, with regard to various destinations in Greece and in competing countries. The data were provided Statistical Bulletin April

6 by trivago, and are therefore more related to the market of individual travellers (FITs). Nevertheless, they provide important information on the trends in various markets and the different destinations. Consumer Confidence Index: The OECD Consumer Confidence Index measures the level of consumer confidence in each country. Given that holidays are deeply interwoven with consumer confidence, this index is a very good indication of anticipated demand for each market. The higher/lower numbers indicate higher/lower levels of consumer confidence and, thus, increased/reduced inclination to visit a given holiday destination. Statistical Bulletin April

7 Airport Arrivals March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

8 International arrivals at main Greek airports INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS 1 AT MAIN GREEK AIRPORTS, MARCH PROVISIONAL DATA 2018 Athens 2 Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type 4 January II February II March II ytd II 2017 Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type 4 January II February II March II April II May II June II July II August II September II Οctober II Νovember II December II Total II ytd II % Changes Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total January 22,4% -14,1% 2300,0% 667,7% -100,0% 7618,0% 17,0% February 33,3% -14,4% -100,0% 840,3% -83,9% -100,0% -37,8% 189,5% 24,9% March 27,0% 17,5% 518,9% -100,0% 52,3% 183,8% -100,0% 108,9% 32,7% -100,0% 30,3% ytd 27,1% -2,3% 498,6% 189,1% 7,9% 183,6% -100,0% 108,9% 18,2% 19793,2% -30,5% 24,5% Regions 3 Total without Athens Dodecanese Crete Ionian islands Cyclades Peloponnese Other Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/2017 January ,2% % ,1% ,4% February ,2% % ,5% 2-100,0% ,8% ,9% March ,3% % ,6% ,4% ,2% ,7% ,1% April ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,9% ,6% ,2% ,2% ,2% ,2% ,7% Source: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and Athens International Airport (AIA) - Processing: SETE Intelligence See cooments on page 4 Statistical Bulletin April

9 The rise in international airport arrivals continues across the country also in March Available data from Greece s main airports show that international arrivals in March 2018 were up by +30.3% (+109,000), compared to March This increase relates mainly to the airport of Athens (+27.0%/+65,000 passengers). A large increase was noted in the airports of Thessaloniki with +17.5% (+17,000) and Kavala (+9,000). It should be noted, that a large portion of the flights to/from Thessaloniki used the airport of Kavala due to reconstruction work underway at Macedonia Airport. In terms of destinations for March 2018, regional airports showed an increase of +37.3%/+44,000 passengers, the Dodecanese %/+8,000 and the Ionian %/+7,000 passengers. Statistical Bulletin April

10 International airport arrivals recorded a +24.5%/+220,000 passengers rise in the first quarter of The Athens International Airport had an increase of +27.1%/+166,000 passengers. Regional airports recorded an increase of +18.9%/+54,000 passengers. Thessaloniki showed a drop: -2.3%/-6,000 passengers. This drop is due to the fact that a large portion of the flights to/from Thessaloniki used the airport of Kavala due to reconstruction work underway at Macedonia Airport. Statistical Bulletin April

11 Domestic arrivals at main Greek airports DOMESTIC ARRIVALS AT MAIN GREEK AIRPORTS, MARCH Athens 2 Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type4 January II February II March II ytd II 2017 Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type4 January II February II March II April II May II June II July II August II September II Οctober II Νovember II December II Total II ytd II % Changes Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total January -2,4% -18,3% 5,8% 64,5% -2,0% 16,0% -33,4% 30,6% -6,2% 7,9% -59,7% -76,1% 7,1% 65,3% -40,4% 0,6% 47,3% 47,7% -3,3% -4,3% February -8,2% -22,2% 3,2% 35,0% 13,8% 16,2% -37,8% 30,1% -2,7% 11,8% -41,0% -57,1% 0,5% 18,6% -25,2% -5,5% 12,6% 12,2% -7,7% -9,3% March -5,3% -16,0% 4,5% -36,1% 8,7% 14,4% -24,0% 18,9% 21,6% 27,6% 55,8% -42,2% 17,6% 35,0% -8,0% 1,8% -8,3% -7,3% -3,5% -5,4% ytd -5,3% -18,7% 4,6% 16,8% 6,2% 15,5% -31,5% 26,0% 4,4% 16,6% -35,6% -55,2% 9,7% 37,2% -24,0% -0,8% 9,8% 14,9% -4,7% -6,3% Regions 3 Total (without Athens) Dodecanese Crete Ionian islands Cyclades Other Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/2016 January ,0% ,1% ,8% ,1% ,4% ,1% February ,3% ,5% ,8% ,4% ,0% ,7% March ,5% ,1% ,6% ,1% ,7% ,9% April ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,1% ,6% ,9% ,8% ,6% ,6% Source: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and Athens International Airport (AIA) - Processing: SETE Intelligence See cooments on page 4 The drop in domestic airport arrivals continues across the country also in March Specifically, a -5.4% drop was recorded in March this year compared to March 2017, according to the data available from the country s major airports, recording 511,00 airport arrivals compared to 540,000 in March Statistical Bulletin April

12 Arrivals in March were down -5.3% at Athens International Airport and -18.7% at Thessaloniki. The drop noted at Thessaloniki Airport is also due to reconstruction work there. The largest percentage decrease (-42.2%) in March was at Mykonos Airport. The largest percentage increase was seen at Aktio Airport with +55.8%. In terms of absolute numbers, the greatest increase is seen at Heraklion Airport with +6,000 passengers (+14.4%). In terms of destinations, in March 2018 the Ionian destinations had an increase of +20.1% and the Cyclades +2.7%. All other destinations were down. More specifically, Others: -2.9%, Crete: -2.6% and Dodecanese: -2.1% Domestic air traffic recorded a drop of -6.3%/-93,000 passengers in the first quarter of The Athens International Airport had a drop of -5.3%/-37,000 passengers. Regional airports marked a drop of -7.1%/-56,000 passengers. Thessaloniki showed a drop of -18.7%/-56,000 passengers. This drop is also due to the fact that a large portion of the flights to/from Thessaloniki was directed to the airport of Kavala because of the reconstruction work underway at Macedonia Airport. The largest percentage increase for the period January-March 2018 was noted at Mykonos Airport with -55.2%/-11,000. The largest percentage increase was seen at Corfu Airport (+26.0%/+6,000). In terms of absolute numbers, the greatest increase was seen at Heraklion Airport with +18,000 passengers (+15.5%). In terms of destinations, in the first quarter of 2018, the Dodecanese were up by +6.6%/+7,000 passengers and the Ionian by +21.8%/+6,500. Crete had a drop of -5.9%/-13,000, entirely due to the Chania airport which recorded a large drop of -31.5%/-31,000 passengers during the first quarter. The Cyclades were also on a decline, down by -5.6%/ -4,000. This decrease is exclusively due to the Mykonos airport (-55.2%/-11,000) since Santorini and Paros saw an increase of +9.7% and +37.2% respectively. Statistical Bulletin April

13 Statistical Bulletin April

14 Airline Seat Scheduling Statistical Bulletin April

15 SCHEDULED SEATS PER AIRPORT, PROVISIONAL DATA Shaded data refers to seats on flights that have already materialised, while the remaing refers to planned seats Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktion Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilini Other Total March April May June July August Septembr October Total Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktion Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilini Other Total March April May June July August Septembr October Total % Change Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktion Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilini Other Total March 54,6% 582,0% 224,7% 54,7% 144,7% -45,0% 943,3% 232,9% 185,1% 108,4% April 15,5% 0,6% 21,4% -64,0% -1,9% 11,0% 46,1% 3,0% 103,4% -0,6% 57,2% 59,0% 167,8% -0,5% 39,5% -100,0% -21,2% 58,8% 7,9% 11,3% May 27,7% 29,7% 40,5% 8,0% 12,3% 22,2% 27,7% 18,4% 38,9% 17,3% 60,8% 32,2% -2,5% 21,7% 86,8% 14,0% 15,5% 19,4% 89,4% 24,6% June 23,7% 22,7% 35,3% -3,0% 7,1% 16,1% 26,1% 13,1% 39,1% 13,3% 39,8% 31,6% 30,9% 25,2% 36,7% 16,7% 8,4% 48,0% 72,5% 20,2% July 24,4% 16,0% 27,3% 21,0% 3,2% 9,3% 17,4% 7,8% 27,8% 14,0% 31,3% 22,9% 11,5% 25,8% 37,7% 7,1% 7,2% 56,5% 73,0% 15,1% August 21,0% 16,2% 30,2% 22,4% 2,9% 14,1% 18,1% 7,4% 19,9% 17,5% 24,3% 17,7% 12,7% 24,0% 30,6% 6,7% 5,2% 73,5% 108,6% 14,9% Septembr 21,6% 19,2% 30,3% 5,5% 5,7% 17,0% 19,9% 11,5% 30,5% 19,8% 38,4% 24,3% 10,1% 18,7% 39,6% 1,4% 13,5% 79,0% 106,0% 17,6% October 15,6% 27,5% 37,3% 31,2% 11,2% 16,3% 26,4% 15,8% 49,2% 16,8% 60,3% 40,2% 32,9% 29,3% 105,7% 4,3% 3,2% 80,7% 155,2% 22,0% Total 22,3% 20,0% 32,3% 12,0% 6,2% 15,2% 22,3% 10,9% 32,4% 16,2% 36,3% 27,0% 16,2% 23,2% 44,1% 8,1% 8,5% 58,1% 89,1% 18,2% Source: HSCA, Data export: 31/03/2018 See commnets on page 4 Compared to the corresponding scheduling in 2017, scheduled airline seats for foreign arrivals are expected to rise by +18.2% or nearly 3 million seats for Based on the absolute number of seats for the entire season, the largest increase is expected at the Rhodes airport with 539,000 more seats and a +20.0% increase. It is followed by the airports in Thessaloniki, up 416,00 seats (+22.3%), and Kos up 395,000 seats (+32.3%). Corfu Airport is in 4th place with 364,000 seats (+22.3%). The airports of Crete are in 5th and 6th place. Statistical Bulletin April

16 Specifically, 254,000 extra seats are expected (+6.2%) in Heraklion, and 189,000 in Chania (+15.2%). They are following by destinations in the Cyclades: Mykonos +168,000 (+36.3%) and Santorini +149,000 (+27.0%). The increase in the remaining airports is expected to range under 100,000 seats. In May specifically, a rise in airline seats of +24.6% is anticipated, or +448,000 seats. In March airline seats increased by % or 57,000 and in April by +11.3% or 77,000 seats. For May specifically, the increase in airline seats for Thessaloniki was +27.7%, or 60,000 seats. The largest percentage increase is noted for Samos with +86.8% (11,000 seats), followed by Mykonos with +60.8% (20,000), and Kos with +40.5% (55,000). In absolute numbers, 87,000 seats were added to Rhodes (+29.7%), 60,000 to Heraklion (+12.3%) and 46,000 to Corfu (+27.7%). Statistical Bulletin April

17 SCHEDULED SEATS PER COUNTRY, PROVISIONAL DATA Shaded data refers to seats on flights that have already materialised, while the remaing refers to planned seats Un. Kingdom Germany Italy Poalnd Russia Netherlands France Sweden Israel Czech republic Other Total March April May June July August Septembr October Total Un. Kingdom Germany Italy Poalnd Russia Netherlands France Sweden Israel Czech republic Other Total March April May June July August Septembr October Total % Change Un. Kingdom Germany Italy Poalnd Russia Netherlands France Sweden Israel Czech republic Other Total March 61,7% 157,9% 118,9% 77,5% -54,9% 160,0% 507,2% 88,9% 5315,9% 68,8% 71,6% 108,4% April 1,4% 16,8% 65,1% 75,1% -20,7% 8,2% 3,6% 26,5% -13,4% -28,9% 14,3% 11,3% May 16,5% 49,8% 58,6% 87,2% -20,0% 11,0% 21,2% 23,4% 111,0% -9,8% 17,3% 24,6% June 15,6% 35,6% 26,8% 54,8% -3,9% 2,5% 13,4% 6,4% 27,1% 22,7% 18,9% 20,2% July 12,9% 30,6% 8,0% 43,9% -7,7% 16,5% 14,3% 3,2% 16,6% 25,7% 11,6% 15,1% August 12,6% 30,4% 3,4% 50,2% -9,0% 15,5% 11,3% 5,6% 17,3% 22,4% 14,1% 14,9% Septembr 13,5% 31,9% 4,2% 45,5% -4,8% 5,3% 14,4% 2,9% 35,4% 20,8% 19,5% 17,6% October 8,5% 33,0% 68,7% 128,1% 0,7% 7,5% 33,2% 10,9% -8,6% -19,2% 21,6% 22,0% Total 13,3% 34,2% 13,7% 56,2% -8,2% 10,4% 15,3% 8,1% 23,6% 19,7% 16,5% 18,2% Source: HSCA, Data export: 31/03/2018 See commnets on page 4 Statistical Bulletin April

18 Compared to the corresponding scheduling in 2017, scheduled airline seats for foreign arrivals are expected to rise +18.2% overall for According to the data based on the absolute number of seats for the entire season, the greatest increase is anticipated from Germany with 946,000 seats (+34.2%). They are followed by Poland with 464,000 (+56.2%) and the United Kingdom with 449,000 (+13.3%). The market of Italy is in fourth place with 159,000 (+13.7%) and Israel in fifth with 114,000 (+23.6%). The only market among those on the table that is on the decline is that of Russia, with 109,000 fewer seats (-8.2%). For May specifically, the increase recorded in airline seats is +24.6%. The greatest percentage increase is noted from Israel with % (+27,000 seats), followed by Poland and Italy with +87.2% (+58,000) and +58.6% (+24,000) respectively. In absolute number of seats in May, the greatest increase comes from Germany with 177,000 (+49.8%) and the United Kingdom with 77,000 (+16.5%). Conversely, a significant decrease in airline seats is seen from Russia that was down -20.0% (-32,000) and the Czech Republic by -9.8% (-1,400) Statistical Bulletin April

19 Road Arrivals March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

20 ROAD ARRIVALS - MARCH NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January February March ytd NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January February March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd % CHANGE NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January 72,8% 38,0% -11,1% 92,1% -55,0% 4,6% 45,1% 49,4% 1,2% -30,9% 1223,1% 113,5% -63,0% 180,7% -3,9% 19,7% February 26,9% -11,0% -2,4% -33,3% -63,8% -26,9% -7,6% 8,9% -18,4% 67,2% 1046,2% 29,2% -67,9% 87,6% -22,9% 17,1% March 42,6% -79,8% 5,0% -28,5% -66,7% -20,0% -18,1% 17,5% -76,6% -21,6% 3,6% -37,1% -66,1% 50,0% -27,0% -13,6% ytd 45,4% -23,7% -3,4% -6,7% -62,5% -16,0% 1,4% 23,6% -33,4% -10,6% 189,3% 12,1% -65,6% 96,8% -17,7% 5,2% ALBANIA BULGARIA FYROM TURKEY REGIONS* Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/2017 January ,6% ,1% ,9% ,2% February ,7% ,6% ,6% ,8% March ,0% ,3% ,7% ,7% April ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,0% ,5% ,4% ,9% Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE See cooments on page 4 Statistical Bulletin April

21 Road arrivals recorded a decrease for the first time in March of 2018, compared to 2017, (-13.6%/-91,000). Specifically, the largest decrease in absolute numbers is at the Evzoni border checkpoint, down by -21.6%/-44,000 arrivals. The highest percentage decrease was noted at the Niki checkpoint (-79.8%/-15,000 arrivals). The largest increase both as a percentage and in absolute numbers was seen at the Promachonas checkpoint, with +50.0%/+46,000. As regards country of origin, there was an increase of +6.7%/+4,000 in March only from Turkey. Arrivals from Bulgaria dropped slightly by -2.3%/-6,000, and from Albania by -2.0%/-2,000. Similarly, a large drop was recorded from FYROM with road arrivals decreasing by -33.7%/-87,000. Road arrivals recorded a +5.2%/+84,000 passenger rise in the first quarter of Arrivals from Albania were up +33.0%/+90,000, from Bulgaria +10.5%/+64,000 and from Turkey +16.9%/+23,000. There was a -15.4% decrease only from FYROM with -92,000 fewer arrivals Statistical Bulletin April

22 During the January - March 2018 period, there was an increase in 6 checkpoints, and a decrease in 9. In terms of absolute numbers, the greatest increase was seen at Promachonas, up by +96.8%/+200,000, followed by the Kakavia checkpoint, up by %/+105,000. Increases in the other checkpoints fell under 100,000, specifically the Nymfea checkpoint, up by +45.4%/+45,000 and Kipoi, up by +23.6% /+22,000. A +12.1% increase was seen at the Mertzani checkpoint (with merely +520 arrivals) and 1.4% at the Kastanies checkpoint (and merely 562 more arrivals). A drop was seen in all the other checkpoints. The largest drop both as a percentage and in absolute numbers was noted at the Exochi border checkpoint (-65.6%/-102,000 arrivals), followed by the Ormenio checkpoint (-62.5%/-75,000). Statistical Bulletin April

23 Statistical Bulletin April

24 Demand for Hotel Accommodation Services (in cooperation with trivago) March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

25 Introduction - Methodological Note This section presents data relating to the demand for hotel accommodation from international markets and Greece, in different destinations in Greece and in competing countries. The data were provided by trivago, and are therefore more related to the market of individual travellers (FITs). Nevertheless, they provide important information on the trends in various markets and the different destinations. For better interpreting of the information, one must take into consideration that they are derived from administrative data from trivago records and have not been statistically processed to provide total estimates. They are therefore subject to the following restrictions: - the penetration of trivago differs from one market to the other; - hotel prices as well as the ranking of destinations and markets are based on clickouts 1 ; - the month refers to the month of arrival at the hotel and not the month of the booking; - hotel prices are the weighted averages of the prices. The weighing is based on the number of clickouts; - types of trips: o Weekday: a trip shorter than 6 overnights, most of them during weekdays, o Weekends: a trip shorter than 6 overnights, most of them on the weekend, o Holiday: a trip lasting 6 overnights or more. 1 Clickout happens when the visitor leaves the trivago site by clicking on a partner online travel agent. Statistical Bulletin April

26 Type of trip to Greece In March 2018, 39% of the bookings were for Weekday trips, 16% for Weekend trips and 44% for Holiday trips. During the same period of 2017, Weekday trips were 34%, Weekend trips 15% and Holiday trips 51%. Therefore, compared to the previous year s data, a drop-in market share is seen in Holiday trips and an increase in Weekday and Weekend trips (marginal). Statistical Bulletin April

27 Top-5 Markets for Greece Countries 2018 J F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearances Germany Un. Kingdom Italy U.S.A France Romania 4 1 Poland 0 Countries 2017 J F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearances ytd Germany Un. Kingdom Italy U.S.A France Romania Poland Germany Un. Kingdom Italy U.S.A France Romania Poland Source: trivago, processing: SETE Intelligence Comparison Δ of appearances 2018/2017 ytd Statistical Bulletin April

28 In March 2018 the main market for Greece was the German one, which remained unchanged compared to March The UK market follows in second place, and the Italian market in third place. They are followed by the USA (fourth place) and France (fifth place). In March of 2017, Poland was in fifth place, but it has not yet - in made an appearance in the top-5. The USA, France and Romania had a frequent presence in the top-5 of The following diagram presents the development of the top-3 main markets for Greece, for 2017 as well as the current year (-to- date). We see that since the start of 2017, the UK, Germany and Italy are constantly in the top-3. An exception was in October 2017, when Italy was in the 4th place. Statistical Bulletin April

29 German market Germany 2018 Cities J F Μ No. of appearances Athens Thessaloniki Fira Georgioupolis 4 1 Rethymnon Chania Mykonos Town Heraklion Oia Rhodes Town Imerovigli Firostefani Change In March 2018 top destinations in Greece in the German market was Athens, followed by Thessaloniki. In third place is Fira. It is notable that the first three destinations maintain the same ranking compared to March They are followed by three destinations in Crete. In the fourth place is Georgioupoli, in the fifth Rethymno and in sixth Chania. Mykonos is in seventh place, appearing for the second time in In eighth place is Heraklion, with Oia and Rhodes in the final places of the top-10. Cities J F Μ Athens Thessaloniki Fira Georgioupolis Rethymnon Chania Mykonos Town Heraklion Oia Rhodes Town Imerovigli Firostefani Source: trivago, processing: SETE Intelligence Change in No. of appearances 2018/2017 ytd The following table reflects the development of the main destinations of the German market for Statistical Bulletin April

30 Cities Ι F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearance Athens Fira Thessaloniki Oia Imerovigli Rethymnon Mykonos-Town Chania Elounda Firostefani Heraklion Rhodes Town Agios Nikolaos (Crete) Kamari Sani Kolymbari Kiotari 10 1 Malia 10 1 Source: trivago, processing:sete Intelligence Germany 2017 Statistical Bulletin April

31 UK market Cities J F Μ No. of appearances Athens Fira Corfu-Town Thessaloniki Imerovigli Oia Chania Mykonos Rhodes Town Firostefani Cities J F Μ Athens Fira Corfu-Town Thessaloniki Imerovigli Oia Chania Mykonos Rhodes Town Firostefani Source: trivago, processing: SETE Intelligence Un. Kingdom 2018 Change Change in No. of appearances 2018/2017 ytd In March 2018 top destinations in Greece in the UK market was Athens, followed by Fira. Corfu is third and Thessaloniki fourth. In fifth and sixth place follow two more destinations of Santorini, Imerovigli and Oia. In seventh place are Chania, in eighth place Mykonos and in ninth the city of Rhodes. In tenth place is yet one more destination of Santorini, Firostefani. Most destinations of the UK Market remain the same for March 2018, compared to 2017, even though their ranking has changed. The following table presents the development of the main destinations of the UK market for Statistical Bulletin April

32 Cities Ι F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearance Athens Fira Imerovigli Oia Mykonos-Town Rhodes Town Chania Firostefani Thessaloniki Kamari Corfu-Town Planos-Tsilivi Thessaloniki Laganas Elounda Akrotiri Fodele 6 1 Agios Nikolaos (Crete) 7 1 Rethymnon 9 1 Ixia 10 1 Karterados 10 1 Malia 10 1 Source: trivago, processing:sete Intelligence Un.Kingdom 2017 Statistical Bulletin April

33 Italian market Cities J F Μ No. of appearances Athens Fira Mykonos Rhodes Town Thessaloniki Corfu-Town Chania 7 1 Imerovigli Oia Firostefani Heraklion 10 1 Zante-Town Cities J F Μ Athens Fira Mykonos Rhodes Town Thessaloniki Corfu-Town Chania Imerovigli Oia Firostefani Heraklion Zante-Town Source: trivago, processing: SETE Intelligence Italy 2018 Change Change in No. of appearances 2018/2017 ytd In March 2018 top destinations in Greece in the Italian market was Athens, followed by Fira and the town of Mykonos. In fourth place is the town of Rhodes and in fifth place Thessaloniki. The town of Corfu is sixth and Chania seventh. In the last three places of the top-10 are Santorini, Imerovigli, Oia and Firostefani. The following diagram illustrates the development of the main destinations of the Italian market for Statistical Bulletin April

34 Cities Ι F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearance Athens Fira Mykonos-Town Oia Imerovigli Chania Rhodes Town Thessaloniki Kamari Perissa Firostefani Akrotiri Heraklion Corfu-Town 8 1 Nafplio 8 1 Laganas 8 1 Faliraki 9 1 Source: trivago, processing:sete Intelligence Italy 2017 Statistical Bulletin April

35 Hotel prices Hotel prices in Athens and competing cities, March Statistical Bulletin April

36 In March 2018, the highest booking price in 5 star hotels is in Barcelona with 245, whereas in Rome the price is 239. In Athens the price is 182 and in Istanbul just 110. Prices in Rome and Barcelona saw a drop compared to March 2017, whereas Athens and Istanbul an increase. In the 4 star category the booking price for Barcelona amounted to 128 compared to 125 in March 2017, in Rome 120 and in Athens 103 compared to 84 in the same period of In Istanbul the booking price was just 62. In the 3 star category, the booking price for Barcelona was 107, in Rome 91 and in Athens 67. In Istanbul the booking price was just 40. In the 1-2 star category the booking price for Barcelona was very high at 73. In Rome the price was 65 and in Athens 42. In Istanbul the booking price was just 32. Statistical Bulletin April

37 Hotel prices in Thessaloniki and competing cities, March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

38 In March 2018, the highest booking price in 5 star hotels was found in Bologna at 597 (compared to 587 in March 2017) followed by Thessaloniki at 160 (compared to 139 in February 2017). In Izmir the price was 98, down from 105 in March In the 4 star category, the booking price for Thessaloniki was 85, remaining unchanged compared to March 2017, in Bologna 182 and in Izmir just 57. In the 3 star category, the booking price for Bologna was 135 and for Thessaloniki 63. Finally, in Izmir the price was 40. In the 1-2 star category, the booking price for Bologna was 64. In Thessaloniki it came up to 51 and Izmir just to 35. Izmir in the 4 and 5 star category is on the decline compared to March 2017, it remains unchanged in the 3 star category and has increased in the 1-2 star category. Exceptionally high are the prices of Bologna in March compared to the competition. Statistical Bulletin April

39 Hotel prices in Mykonos, Santorini and competitive premium destinations, March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

40 In March 2018, the highest booking price in 5 star hotels was in Ibiza at 254 (compared to 276 in March 2017) followed by Santorini with 229 (compared to 213 in March 2017). Sardinia saw the greatest drop, with the price amounting to 209 from 264 in March In Mykonos the price was 208. In the 4-star category, the booking price for Santorini amounted to 193 up from 148 in February 2017, in Ibiza at 144 and in Sardinia at 137 (compared to 142 in February 2017). In Mykonos, in February 2017 the price amounts to 122, whereas in February 2018 it is 132. In the 3-star category the booking price for Santorini amounted to 98, for Mykonos at 96, and in the other destinations the price is under 90. Specifically, in Ibiza 74 and in Sardinia 83. In the 1-2-star category, the booking price for Mykonos was 61 and for Santorini 57. In Ibiza it was 68 and in Sardinia it shot up to 114. Greek destinations in the 5-star category saw an increase compared to March 2017, while competitors saw a decrease. In the 4- star category Mykonos, Santorini and Ibiza saw an increase, while Sardinia saw a decrease. Greek destinations had higher prices compared to their 3-star competitors. In the 1-2-star category, Sardinia has a higher price compared to the respective price of 3- star hotels of all destinations. Statistical Bulletin April

41 Hotel prices in mass Sun & Sea destinations, March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

42 In March 2018, the highest booking price of 5 star hotels in Greece was found in the Cyclades with 224 followed by the Ionian Islands with 185. Amongst competing destinations, Rimini was at 214, Majorca at 206 and Istria at 146. In Chalkidiki, the price was 139, in the Dodecanese 120 and in Crete 118. Turkey recorded the lowest prices, with Bodrum at 110 and Antalya at 74. In 4 star hotels, the highest booking price in 4 star hotels was in the Cyclades, with 181. Markedly lower were prices in the other destinations with the Ionian Islands at 115, Majorca at 110, Chalkidiki at 108 and Istria at 104. The remaining destinations ranged under 100. The lowest prices were noted in Turkey, with Bodrum at 54 and Antalya at 41. In 3 star hotels, the highest prices were noted in Greek destinations. Some typical examples are the Cyclades at 94 and the Ionian Islands at 77. In competing destinations, the highest price was noted in Majorca at 70, followed by Istria at 65. The lowest prices were noted in Turkey: Antalya 26 and Bodrum 20. In 1-2 star hotels, the highest price was in Rimini at 61. Majorca and the Cyclades followed with 57 and the Ionian Islands with 54. The lowest price was noted in Antalya with 20. The cheapest Greek destination was in the Dodecanese with 33. Statistical Bulletin April

43 Hotel prices in Greece, per region, March 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

44 In March 2018, the highest booking price in 5-star hotels was found in South Aegean with 207. The Ionian islands followed at 185, Central Macedonia at 153 and Central Greece at 145. The other destinations ranged under 140, with the lowest price found in Western Macedonia at 91. In 4-star hotels, the highest prices were recorded in South Aegean at 158 and the Ionian Islands at 115 (notably lower than in South Aegean). Other destinations ranged under 100. The lowest price was noted in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace at 70. In 3-star hotels, most prices ranged around 65. An exception is the South Aegean with 86 and the Ionian islands with 77, a price much higher than that of 4-star hotels in other regions of Greece. The lowest prices were noted in Crete at 54 and in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace at 53. In 1-2-star hotels, the highest prices were noted in the Ionian islands at 54 and in the Peloponnese and Epirus at 53. The lowest price was noted in Crete at 42. Statistical Bulletin April

45 Greek market Cities J F Μ No. of appearances Athens Thessaloniki Nafplio Loutraki Ioannina Kalavrita Trikala, Corinth Volos 8 1 Arachova Kalambaka 10 1 Metsovo Paleos Agios Athanassios 10 1 Patra 7 1 Cities J F Μ Athens Thessaloniki Nafplio Loutraki Ioannina Kalavrita Trikala, Corinth Volos Arachova Kalambaka Metsovo Paleos Agios Athanassios Patra Source: trivago, processing: SETE Intelligence Greece 2018 Change Change in No. of appearances 2018/2017 ytd In March 2018, Athens was in the lead of the Greek market s preference, followed by Thessaloniki. Nafplio was in third place, Loutraki in fourth and Ioannina in fifth. In sixth place are Kalavrita, in seventh Trikala of Corinth and in eighth Volos. Arachova is in ninth place and Kalampaka in tenth. Volos and Kalampaka appear for the first time in the top-10 for This top-10 highlights the preference of Greeks for winter destinations in the first quarter of The following table illustrates the development of the main destinations of the Greek market for Statistical Bulletin April

46 Cities Ι F Μ Α Μ J J Α S Ο Ν D No. of appearance Athens Thessaloniki Nafplio Chania Ioannina Loutraki Portaria Arachova Trikala, Corinth Parga Skiathos Town Rhodes Town Tinos-Town Kalavrita Skopelos Town Naxos - Chora Mykonos-Town Kalambaka Patra Adamas Monemvasia Fira Kastoria Corfu-Town 4 1 Volos 5 1 Agia Marina 7 1 Edipsos 8 1 Hydra 8 1 Naoussa 8 1 Rethymnon 8 1 Pefkohori 9 1 Skala 10 1 Source: trivago, processing:sete Intelligence Greece 2017 Statistical Bulletin April

47 Travel Balance February 2018 Statistical Bulletin April

48 Arrivals ΑRRIVALS in thousands 2018 Countries ΕΕ-28 Eurozone of which of which of which non Eurozone Other France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray Februray ytd Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray Februray March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd %Changes Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray 22% 3,4% 22,1% 21,7% 42,5% -4,2% 7,3% 9,4% -84,8% 16,0% Februray 1,3% 5,2% 1,9% -2,0% -2,1% -27,0% 20,9% -41,5% 52,8% 8,9% ytd 12,3% 4,2% 9,6% 10,3% 20,3% -15,2% 13,3% -15,5% -33,2% 12,7% Source:BoG - Processing:SETE Intelligence Provisonal data Statistical Bulletin April

49 In February 2018, the number of inbound visitors rose by +8.9% year-on-year to 484 thousand. This development is attributed to higher visitor flows from both within the EU28 (up +1.3%) and outside the EU28 (up +20.9%). In greater detail, the number of visitors from within the euro area rose by +5.2% to 134 thousand, whereas visitors from the non-euro area EU28 countries declined by -2.1% (February 2018: 141 thousand, February 2017: 144 thousand). Specifically, the number of visitors from Germany decreased by -2.0% to 47 thousand, while visitors from France increased by +1.9% to 11 thousand. Visitors from the United Kingdom fell by -27.0% to 25 thousand. Turning to non-eu28 countries, the number of visitors from Russia increased by +52.8% to 10 thousand, whereas the number of visitors from the United States dropped by -41.5% to 13 thousand. In January-February 2018, the number of inbound visitors rose by +12.7% year-on-year to 1,088 thousand (January-February 2017: 965 thousand). In the period under review, the number of visitors from within the EU28 rose by +12.3% year-on-year to 646 thousand, as did the number of visitors from outside the EU28, by +13.3% to 442 thousand. Visitors from within the euro area rose by +4.2%, while visitors from the non-euro area EU28 countries also increased, by +20.3%. Specifically, the number of visitors from France rose by +9.6% to 19 thousand, as did the number of visitors from Germany, by +10.3% to 108 thousand. Visitors from the United Kingdom decreased by -15.2% to 59 thousand. Finally, turning to non-eu28 countries, the number of visitors from Russia dropped by -33.2% to 11 thousand, while the number of visitors from the United States also fell, by -16.8% to 35 thousand. Statistical Bulletin April

50 Receipts Receipts in mil Countries ΕΕ-28 Eurozone of which of which of which non Eurozone Other France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray Februray ytd Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray Februray March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd %Changes Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray 0,3% -15,6% 5,9% -9,2% 37,7% -1,8% -7,0% -22,1% -93,7% -3,0% -1,2% -3,0% Februray 1,9% -8,3% -22,2% -7,7% 23,7% -2,2% 27,6% -61,9% 116,7% 12,7% 2,2% 12,6% ytd 1,1% -12,2% -13,4% -8,6% 30,7% -2,0% 8,3% -42,2% -22,0% 4,2% 0,1% 4,2% Source:BoG - Processing:SETE Intelligence Provisonal data Statistical Bulletin April

51 In February 2018, travel receipts rose by +12.6% year-on-year. In more detail, receipts from residents of the EU28 increased by -1.9% to 80 million, whereas receipts from outside the EU28 rose by +27.6% (February 2018: 72 million, February 2017: 56 million). The higher receipts from within the EU28 were due to a +23.7% increase in receipts from residents of non-euro area EU28 countries (February 2018: 31 million, February 2017: 25 million), as receipts from euro area residents fell by -8.3% to 49 million. Breaking down receipts by visitor s country of origin, receipts from Germany fell by -7.7% to 15 million, as did receipts from France, by -22.2% to 5 million. Receipts from the United Kingdom also decreased by -2.2% to 10 million. Turning to non-eu28 countries, receipts from Russia rose by % to 7 million, whereas receipts from the United States dropped by -61.9% to 5 million. In January-February 2018, travel receipts increased by +4.2% year-on-year to 305 million. This development is attributed to increases in receipts from within the EU28 by +1.1% to 166 million and in receipts from outside the EU28 by +8.3% to 138 million. Receipts from euro area residents fell by -12.2% to 100 million, whereas receipts from residents of non-euro area EU28 countries rose by +30.7% to 66 million. Specifically, receipts from France dropped by -13.4% to 8 million, as did receipts from Germany, by -8.6% to 35 million. Receipts from the United Kingdom also decreased, by -2.0% to 21 million. Turning to non -EU28 countries, receipts from Russia dropped by -22.0% to 7 million, while receipts from the United States also decreased, by -2.2% to 16 million. Statistical Bulletin April

52 Macroeconomic developments Statistical Bulletin April

53 According to different indexes of production, turnover, consumption, exports and imports (see Table), it appears that the Greek economy is on a steady course of recovery. Apart from the increase of Goods and Services imports and exports mentioned above, the upward growth of the production of the manufacturing industry continues (1st 2 months of 2018: +3.3%, Table 1. Recovery Course of Selected Greek Economy Sectors Jan - Feb 2017 Jan - Feb 2018 General Industrial Production Index 1.0% 2.5% 4.5% 6.8% -1.6% Manufacturing Production Index 1.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% Turnover Index (TI) in Industry -10.3% -5.1% 11.5% 24.5% 7.9% Construction Production Index 2.5% 23.5% -15.1% Building Permit Volume Index -0.2% -6.6% 19.3% -15.3% % 1 TI: Accommodation & Catering services (Tourism) 3.1% 0.1% 9.9% Arrivals of Foreign Tourists 7.1% 5.1% 9.7% -2.8% 12.7% Receipts from incoming tourism 5.5% -6.4% 10.5% -8.1% 4.2% TI: Wholesale Trade -4.4% -1.6% 3.7% TI: Retail Trade -2.9% -2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1 0.7% 1 Retail Trade Volume Index -1.5% -0.6% 1.2% -0.1% 1 1.5% 1 Sales of Passenger Cars 13.9% 10.9% 22.1% 37.3% % 2 TI in Motor Vehicle Trade 7.7% 7.7% 6.4% Employment (LFS) 2.1% 1.7% 2.2% 1.56% % 1 Exports of Goods and Services (BoG, Current Prices) -8.9% -6.1% 13.5% 18.9% 13.4% Imports of Goods and Services (BoG, Current Prices) -14.3% -4.2% 12.6% 17.3% 14.0% GDP: ELSTAT estimates (2015, 2016 and 2017) Private consumption (Constant Prices 2010) -0.5% 0.0% 0.1% Fixed Capital Formations (Constant Prices 2010) -0.3% 1.6% 9.6% 1st 2 months of 2017: 3.5%, 2017: 3.8%, 2016: 4.2%) and does the Turnover Index in industry (1st 2 months of 2018: 7.9%, 1st 2 months of 2017: 24.5%, 2017: 11.5%), as well as the upward growth of passenger car sales (1st quarter of 2018: 37.6%, 1st quarter of 2017: 37.3%, 2017: 22.1%, 2016: 10.9%). Regarding investments of particular note in the sector of investments is the 41.7% increase in the volume of building permits in January 2018, after the 19.3% increase in 2017, signalling the recovery of investments in residences starting in In the tourism sector, the increase of arrivals by 12.7% in the 1st 2 months of 2018 is noted, with the increase of receipts from foreign tourism at 4.2%, while all data demonstrate - Investments in Equipment (Constant Prices 2010) 7.8% -12.3% 28.9% Change in inventory investments (billion ) % 110.0% 132.8% Exports of Goods and Services (Constant Prices 2010) 3.1% -1.8% 6.8% Imports of Goods and Services (Constant Prices 2010) 0.4% 0.3% 7.2% GDP (Constant Prices 2010) -0.3% -0.2% 1.4% Source ELSTAT and Bank of Greece (BoG), 1 January, 2 1st Quarter that there will be a substantial growth of tourism in 2018 as well. Finally, in the labour market we see a significant increase of employment by 4.25% on an annual basis in January 2018, while the net increase of paid employment in the private sector of the economy stood at 55,600 people in the 1st quarter of 2018, compared to 33,600 in the 1st quarter of Statistical Bulletin April

54 Despite a small drop in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to 99.8 in March 2018, from a high in February 2018 and from in Jan 2018 (May 2017: 93,2), the Consumer Confidence Index saw a small improvement at in March 2018, from in February 2018 and from in Jan The expectation index in the service sector also slightly receded to 17.7 in March 2018, from 18.9 in February 2018, 13.4 in December 2017 and 6.6 in March Yields on Greek Government Bonds (GGB) on 20/04/18 stood at 4.07% for the 10-year bond, 3.18% for the 5-year and 3.67% for the 7-year bond. Despite the fluctuations in February and March 2018 due to the turmoil in global financial markets, they remain at significantly reduced levels despite the fact that they are supported by to the ECB s critical stability interventions, as is the case with government bonds in other Southern European countries. At the same time, the divergence between the increase of imports and consumption continued in the first 2 months of In particular, according to the Payments Balance, G&S imports at current prices increased by 14.0%, further to the 17.3% increase in the first 2 months of 2017 and 12.6% for the entire year of 2017 (+7.2% at constant prices 2010, data from National Accounts). Equally important was the increase of G&S exports by 13.4% in the first 2 months of 2018, compared to +18.9% in the first 2 months of 2017 and 13.5% in 2017 (+6.8% in constant prices 2010). Despite the increase in G&S imports, the increase of private consumption in 2017 was limited to 0.1%(-1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2017), while in January 2018, the Turnover Index in retail sales increased only by 0.7% (compared to a 23.5% increase in imports of goods in Jan 2018 and 14.0% in the first 2 months of 2018). This potentially means that the great divergence between the 7.2% growth rate of G&S imports (in constant prices 2010) and the low 0.1% growth rate in private consumption, which was the main reason why the GDP growth rate was limited to 1.35% in 2017, may continue into the 1st quarter of 2018, also limiting the GDP growth during this quarter, despite the significant increase also of G&S exports. ELSTAT and Eurostat published the final data on the execution of the 2017 Budget (B2017), according to which the General Government Primary Surplus (GGPS) in 2017 came to 4.2% of the GDP (based on the rules of the Adjustment Statistical Bulletin April

55 Programme), confirming our estimate that the GGPS in 2017 would again exceed 3.5% of the GDP. It is noted that the GGPS reached this exceptionally high level despite the extraordinary-non-budgeted 1.4 billion expenditure in December 2017 for the so-called social dividend. This positive outcome in the fiscal adjustment of Greece, further to the corresponding positive outcomes in the execution of the 2016 and 2015 budgets, is much broader than what the 3rd MOU required and what the Institutions (and especially the IMF) expected. This development is an anticipated result of the structural reforms that were implemented during the period. These reforms contributed towards the drastic reduction of the General Government s primary expenditures by 37.5 billion in 2017 compared to 2009, whereas since 2015 they have been contributing towards the satisfactory increase of the GG s revenues, in combination with the increase in employment and the recovery of the economy. The counter-growth fiscal measures taken in June 2016, that led to the overtaxation of households and businesses and the enlargement of the black economy, had a minimum or no effect on achieving the above significant GGPS. Conversely, the high GGPSs are now a structural feature of the Greek economy, showing the need to reverse the excessive tax burdens (VAT, taxes on petroleum and tobacco products, taxes on businesses and especially in tourism, the Extraordinary Solidarity Contribution) and the imbalance between contributions to insurance funds and the benefits they provided to high-salaried insured employees with more than 30 years of insurance. By rationalising the tax and insurance system of the country, the structural nature of the high GGPS may be substantially reinforced. Based on the data of the B2017 execution with a GGPS at 4.2% of the GDP, and moreover taking into consideration: a) the imposition of additional fiscal measures amounting to 0.6% of the GDP in 2018 and b) the estimate for an increase of the nominal GDP by a more than 3.5%, compared to 2.0% increase in 2017, it is estimated that the GGPS of 2018 may exceed the target of 3.82% of the GDP provided for by the B2018 and the 3.5% required by the 3rd MOU. The B2018 execution data in the 1st quarter of 2018 support this estimate: Statistical Bulletin April

56 - at the level of Central Government in the 1st quarter of 2018, net revenues in the Regular Budget (RB) exceeded by 360 million the target set for this quarter in B2018, while the total primary expenditures in the RB were below target by 2 million and the public investment program surplus was above target by 861 million. Specifically, the public investment program (PIP) revenues amounted to 1.06 billion, compared to 0.65 billion in the 1st quarter of 2017 and 1.55 billion in the 1st quarter of PIP expenditures came at 0.35 billion, i.e. below target by Overall the Central Government Primary Surplus (without revenues from the European Central Banks) in the 1st quarter of 2018 came to 2.0 billion, up from the targeted surplus of 0.78 billion. - More indicative was the execution of B2018 at General Government level on a consolidated cash basis in the 2 month period of Jan - Feb GG revenues rose by 11.3% (Jan - Feb 2017: -9.2%), while primary expenditures plus the increase in overdue Greek Government obligations rose by 1.5% (Jan - Feb 2017: -8.5%). As a result, the GGPS on a cash basis came to 2.87 billion in the 1st 2 months of 2018, from 1,69 in the 1st 2 months of After these developments, if the increase in the primary expenditures of the GG remains at 1.5%, as it did in the first 2 months of 2018, then with a 4.5% increase in GG revenues (from 11.3% in the first 2 months of 2018), the GGPS may go even exceed 5.0% of the GDP in Finally, employment and unemployment rates are moving in a positive direction: - According to the most recent Labour Force Survey (seasonally adjusted figures), in January 2018: o There were 3.76 million employed compared to 3.66 million in the same month in 2017, and 3.62 million in the same month in The number of employed is the highest since o The unemployed population receded to 977,000, compared to 1,103,000 last year and 1,165,000 in After peaking at 27.8% in September 2013, unemployment has gradually receded to 20.6% (which is still high), compared to 23.2% last year and 24.4% in Statistical Bulletin April

57 o The economically inactive population amounts to 3.26 million, compared to 3.27 million last year, and 3.42 million at its peak in May Based on the ERGANI Information System s results, paid employment rose by +55,494 jobs in March 2018, compared to +38,517 in January Respectively, in the first quarter, jobs increased by +55,580 compared to +33,638 last year. Nearly half of the increase in paid employment in March is the result of tourism-related activities, namely accommodation (+16,352) and catering (+10,973). Statistical Bulletin April

58 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) This section has not been renewed yet because up to 30/04/2018 the OECD average had not been published for March Statistical Bulletin April

59 Statistical Bulletin April