Statistical Bulletin Νο. 39 March 2018

Transcription

1 Statistical Bulletin Νο. 39 March 2018 SETE Institute 34 Amalias Avenue Athens, Greece SETE Intelligence Republishing is permitted provided the source is referenced

2 At a glance Sources: Civil Aviation Authority, Athens International Airport, Border Checkpoints, OECD, ELSTAT, BoG, Labour Force Survey, Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research Processing: SETE Intelligence Statistical Bulletin March

3 Contents Airport Arrivals 5 International arrivals at main Greek airports 6 Domestic arrivals at main Greek airports 8 Road Arrivals 10 Travel Balance 14 Arrivals 15 Receipts 17 Macroeconomic developments 19 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 25 Turnover Indexes in: Tourism, Air & Sea Transports and Travel Agents 29 Statistical Bulletin March

4 Acknowledgements The production of this bulletin is based partly on available public sources, and partly on data provided by various agencies (Civil Aviation Authority, Athens International Airport, Border Checkpoints, National Flight Coordination Authority, Association of Greek Passenger Shipping Companies), to whom we are especially grateful. The Editors Aris Ikkos Evangelia Lamprou Dimitris Maroulis Research Director Researcher Statistician Economist SETE Institute SETE Institute Disclaimer This Bulletin publishes data obtained from other sources and not from primary INSETE surveys. Though INSETE makes every effort to ensure the sources are valid and the republished data is correct, it is not liable to third parties, nor for the use they make of the data in the Bulletin. We also note that the data presented in various tables of the Bulletin are often temporary and subject to subsequent revision. A short presentation of the key sources SETE Intelligence uses, along with information on the methods used by each source/survey and the differences between them, is available here. The different methodology used by each of the above sources as well as the variable measured in each case, require that as many sources as possible are combined to achieve a comprehensive overview of the issues under examination. For further information, clarification or suggestions, please contact the editors. Statistical Bulletin March

5 International Arrivals by Air (1) The information pertains to the arrival of passengers on international flights regardless of their place of residence. With the exception of the information for the Athens airport, which pertains solely to foreign residents. (2) The data for the last available month for the Athens airport represent an estimate by SETE Intelligence. (3) The airports are classified as follows: The Dodecanese: Rhodes - Kos - Karpathos, Crete: Heraklion - Chania, The Ionian: Corfu - Zakynthos - Kefalonia - Aktion, The Cyclades: Mykonos - Santorini, Peloponnese: Araxos - Kalamata, Other: Samos - Skiathos - Kavala - Mytilene. (4) Type I: Final Civil Aviation Authority Data - Type II: Provisional Civil Aviation Authority Data - subject to review. Domestic arrivals at major Greek airports (1) Passengers who travel round-trip are counted twice: upon arrival at their destination as well as upon return to their point of departure. (2) The data for the last available month for the Athens airport represent an estimate by SETE Intelligence. (3) The classification of airports is as follows: The Dodecanese: Rhodes - Kos - Karpathos, Crete: Heraklion - Chania, The Ionian: Corfu - Zakynthos - Kefalonia - Aktion, The Cyclades: Mykonos - Santorini - Paros, Other: Samos - Skiathos - Kavala - Mytilene. (4) Type I: Final Civil Aviation Authority Data - Type II: Provisional Civil Aviation Authority Data - subject to review. Road Arrivals Road arrivals are recorded by the local police departments based on nationality, irrespective of place of permanent residence. Consequently, the data include immigrants to Greece returning from trips abroad. The countries are classified as follows: Albania: Kakavia - Krystallopigi - Sagiada - Mertzani, Bulgaria: Ormenio - Kyprinos - Νymfaia - Promachona - Exochi - Ag. Konstantinos, fyrom: Evzonoi - Doirani - Niki, Turkey: Kastanies - Kipoi. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) The Consumer Confidence Index of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) measures the level of consumer confidence in each country. Since holidays are deeply interwoven with consumer confidence, this index is a very good indication of anticipated demand for each market. The higher/lower numbers indicate higher/lower levels of consumer confidence, and thus an increased/reduced inclination to visit a given holiday destination. Statistical Bulletin March

6 Airport Arrivals February 2018 Statistical Bulletin March

7 International arrivals at main Greek airports INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS 1 AT MAIN GREEK AIRPORTS,FEBRUARY PROVISIONAL DATA 2018 Athens 2 Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type 4 January II February II ytd II 2017 Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type 4 January II February II March II April II May II June II July II August II September II Οctober II Νovember II December II Total II ytd II % Changes Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Κarpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Araxos Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total January 22,4% -14,1% 2300,0% 667,7% -100,0% 7618,0% 17,0% February 33,3% -14,4% -100,0% 840,3% -83,9% -100,0% -37,8% 189,5% 24,9% March -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% April -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% May -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% June -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% July -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% August -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% September -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% Οctober -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% Νovember -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% December -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% -100,0% ytd 27,2% -14,2% -17,2% 769,9% -92,4% -100,0% -37,8% 14060,2% 378,9% 20,6% Regions 3 Total without Athens Dodecanese Crete Ionian islands Cyclades Peloponnese Other Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/ Δ2018/2017 January ,2% % ,1% ,4% February ,2% % ,5% 2-100,0% ,8% ,9% March ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% April ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% % ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,2% ,2% ,2% 2-100,0% ,8% ,1% Source: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and Athens International Airport (AIA) - Processing: SETE Intelligence See comments on page 4 Statistical Bulletin March

8 Increase in international airport arrivals across the country. Available data from Greece s main airports show that international arrivals in February 2018 were up by +24.9% (+61,000), compared to February This increase relates mainly to the airports in Athens (+33.3%/+54,000 passengers) and Heraklion (+840.3%/+9,000 passengers). Thessaloniki Airport had a drop of -14.4%/-11,000 passengers, while Kavala Airport showed an increase of +10,000 seats, as a large portion of the flights to/from Thessaloniki used this airport due to reconstruction work under way at Macedonia Airport. In terms of destinations for February 2018, regional airports showed an increase of +8.2%/+7,000 passengers, with Crete up %/+8,000 passengers. Statistical Bulletin March

9 Domestic arrivals at main Greek airports DOMESTIC ARRIVALS AT MAIN GREEK AIRPORTS, FEBRUARY Athens 2 Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type4 January II February II ytd II 2017 Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Heraklion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total Type4 January II February II March II April II May II June II July II August II September II Οctober II Νovember II December II Total II ytd II % Changes Athens Thessaloniki Rhodes Kos Karpathos Herakleion Chania Corfu Zakynthos Kefalonia Aktio Mykonos Santorini Paros Kalamata Samos Skiathos Kavala Mytilene Total January -2,4% -18,3% 5,8% 64,5% -2,0% 16,0% -33,4% 30,6% -6,2% 7,9% -59,7% -76,1% 7,1% 65,3% -40,4% 0,6% 47,3% 47,7% -3,3% -4,3% February -8,2% -22,2% 3,2% 35,0% 13,8% 16,2% -37,8% 30,1% -2,7% 11,8% -41,0% -57,1% 0,5% 18,6% -25,2% -5,5% 12,6% 12,2% -7,7% -9,3% ytd -5,4% -20,3% 4,6% 50,2% 4,7% 16,1% -35,6% 30,4% -4,5% 9,9% -56,0% -65,5% 3,8% 38,8% -32,7% -2,3% 27,0% 28,6% -5,5% -6,8% Regions 3 Total (without Athens) Dodecanese Crete Ionian islands Cyclades Other Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/ Δ 2017/2016 January ,0% ,1% ,8% ,1% ,4% ,1% February ,3% ,5% ,8% ,4% ,0% ,7% March ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% April ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,1% ,5% ,8% ,7% ,8% ,7% Source: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and Athens International Airport (AIA) - Processing: SETE Intelligence See cooments on page 4 A -9.3% decrease in domestic airport arrivals was seen in February 2018, compared to February 2017, according to the data available from the country's major airports. Specifically, 425,000 airport arrivals were recorded compared to 469,000 in February Statistical Bulletin March

10 Arrivals in February were down -8.2% at Athens International Airport and -22.2% at Thessaloniki Airport. The drop noted at Thessaloniki Airport is due to reconstruction work there. The largest percentage decrease (-57.1%) in February was at Mykonos Airport. The largest percentage increase was seen at Kos Airport (+35.0%). In terms of destinations, Crete had 62,000 arrivals (-8.8%) compared to 68,000 in February 2017; the Cyclades had 19,000 (-14.0%) compared to 22,000; and the Dodecanese had 35,000 (+8.5%), compared to 32,000 in February In the Ionian, arrivals were up by +23.4%, with 11,000 arrivals. The remaining airports followed with 16,000 arrivals for a -3.7% drop. Statistical Bulletin March

11 Road Arrivals February 2018 Statistical Bulletin March

12 ROAD ARRIVALS - FEBRUARY NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January February ytd NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January February March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd % CHANGE NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGIAG. KONSTANTINOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI PROMACHONAS SAGIADA TOTAL January 72,8% 38,0% -11,1% 92,1% -55,0% 4,6% 45,1% 49,4% 1,2% -30,9% 1223,1% 113,5% -63,0% 180,7% -3,9% 19,7% February 26,9% -11,0% -2,4% -33,3% -63,8% -26,9% -7,6% 8,9% -18,4% 67,2% 1046,2% 29,2% -67,9% 87,6% -22,9% 17,1% ytd 47,2% 11,6% -7,5% 8,4% -59,9% -13,5% 14,3% 27,4% -7,6% -1,8% 1154,7% 74,0% -65,4% 134,6% -12,4% 18,5% ALBANIA BULGARIA FYROM TURKEY REGIONS* Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/ Δ 2018/2017 January ,6% ,1% ,9% ,2% February ,7% ,6% ,6% ,8% March ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% April ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% May ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% June ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% July ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% August ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% September ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Οctober ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% Νovember ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% December ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ytd ,2% ,8% ,7% ,5% Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE See cooments on page 4 Road arrivals in February 2018 were up by +17.1%, amounting to 72,000 more than February Specifically, the largest increase was seen at the Promachonas border checkpoint, up +87.6%/+49,000 arrivals. The highest percentage increase was Statistical Bulletin March

13 noted at the Kakavia checkpoint (+1046%/+36,000 arrivals). The largest drop both as a percentage and in absolute numbers was seen at the Exohi checkpoint, down -67.9%/-34,000. As regards country of origin, the highest increase in absolute numbers for February was from FYROM, amounting to +36.6%/+43,000 arrivals, followed by Albania with +49.7%/+32,000. Meanwhile, road arrivals from Turkey were up +3.8%/+2,000. Road arrivals from Bulgaria were down -2.6%/-5,000. Statistical Bulletin March

14 Statistical Bulletin March

15 Travel Balance January 2018 Statistical Bulletin March

16 Arrivals ΑRRIVALS in thousands 2018 Countries ΕΕ-28 Eurozone of which of which of which non Eurozone Other France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray ytd Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray Februray March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd %Changes Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Januray 22% 3,4% 22,1% 21,7% 42,5% -4,2% 7,3% 9,4% -84,8% 16,0% ytd 22,1% 3,4% 22,1% 21,7% 42,5% -4,2% 7,3% 9,4% -84,8% 16,0% Source:BoG - Processing:SETE Intelligence Provisonal data Statistical Bulletin March

17 In January 2018, the number of inbound visitors rose by +16.0% year-on-year to 604 thousand. The increase in the number of inbound visitors is attributed to higher visitor flows from both within the EU28 (up +22.1%) and outside the EU28 (up +7.3%). In greater detail, the number of visitors from the euro area increased by +3.4% to 164 thousand, while visitors from the non-euro area EU28 countries also rose by +42.5% (January 2018: 207 thousand, January 2017: 145 thousand). Specifically, the number of visitors from Germany rose by +21.7% to 62 thousand, as did the number of visitors from France, by +22.1% to 8 thousand. Visitors from the United Kingdom decreased by -4.2% to 35 thousand. Turning to non-eu28 countries, the number of visitors from Russia dropped by -84.8% to 2 thousand, whereas the number of visitors from the United States rose by +9.4% to 22 thousand. Statistical Bulletin March

18 Receipts Receipts in mil Countries ΕΕ-28 Eurozone of which of which of which non Eurozone Other France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray ytd Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray Februray March April May June July August September Οctober Νovember December Total ytd %Changes Countries of which of which of which Eurozone non Eurozone Other ΕΕ-28 France Germany U.K. USA Russia Total Cruises Total Januray 0,3% -15,6% 5,9% -9,2% 37,7% -1,8% -7,0% -22,1% -93,7% -3,0% -1,2% -3,0% ytd 0,3% -15,6% 5,9% -9,2% 37,7% -1,8% -7,0% -22,1% -93,7% -3,0% -1,2% -3,0% Source:BoG - Processing:SETE Intelligence Provisonal data Statistical Bulletin March

19 In January 2018, as mentioned previously, travel receipts declined by -3.0% year-on-year. In more detail, receipts from residents of the EU28 increased slightly, by +0.3%, to 86 million, whereas receipts from outside the EU28 fell by -7.0% (January 2018: 66 million, January 2017: 71 million). The uptick in receipts from within the EU28 was due to a +37.7% increase in receipts from residents of non-euro area EU28 countries (January 2018: 35 million, January 2017: 26 million), as receipts from euro area residents fell by -15.6% to 51 million. Breaking down receipts by visitor s country of origin, receipts from Germany fell by -9.2% to 19 million, whereas receipts from France increased by +5.9% to 3 million. Receipts from the United Kingdom decreased by -1.8% to 11 million. Turning to non-eu28 countries, receipts from Russia dropped by -93.7% to 0.4 million, while receipts from the United States also decreased by -22.1% to 11 million. Statistical Bulletin March

20 Macroeconomic developments Statistical Bulletin March

21 The state of the economy: According to ELSTAT estimates, growth in the GDP was limited to 1.35% in 2017 (+1.77% in 4th quarter 2017) and was lower than expected. This development is exclusively due to ELSTAT's forecast of a drop in private consumption of -1.3% in 4th quarter 2017 and its marginal increase of 0.1% for 2017 overall, despite the ongoing increase in Goods and Services imports (5.0% in 4th quarter 2017, and 7.2% for 2017 overall), but particularly the very high increase in imports of most consumer products 1. The estimate for sluggish private consumption in 2017 (+0.1%) follows the estimated -0.02% drop in 2016, and -0,5% drop in 2015, after a marginal increase of +0.6% in Based on these estimates, private consumption in 2017 was just 310 million higher than 2013, when imports of Goods and Services over the same period increased by 9.23 billion. The inconsistency between estimates on the course of private consumption and imports of Goods and Services may be due to the fact that, on the one hand, imports are defined to a great extent by administrative data that reflect real demand based on the status of the real GDP (in other words, the recorded official GDP plus the GDP of the unrecorded [black] economic activity); and on the other, that private consumption is determined only on the basis of recorded gross disposable income. In recent years, gross disposable income has declined relative to both real GDP and recorded GDP. Specifically, ELSTAT estimates the gross disposable income at 64.7% of recorded GDP for 2017, down from 69.9% in This sizeable -5.2% drop in the GDP is due to: 1 Specifically, for 2017 ELSTAT estimates a standstill in private consumption despite the very high increase in imports of most consumer products, such as meat (2017: +7.9%, 2016: +4.4%), fish ( 13.4%, 16.5%), dairy products (15.1%, -1.1%), vegetables (10.6%, 1.8%), fruit and nuts (8.7%, 0.1%), cereals (11.6%, 11.9%), animal or vegetable fats/oils (18.0%, -9.7%), alcoholic beverages (12.6%, 9.7%), leather and fur (68.9%, -23.5%), ready-to-wear clothing (4.4%, 9.3%), electrical appliances (5.4%, -2.5%), passenger cars (10.0%, 14.3%), etc. Statistical Bulletin March

22 - about 80% (-4.1% of the GDP) to a) the drop in reported (rather than actual) income from business activity, and b) the drop in income from assets (mainly from interest which, despite the increase in bank deposits in 2017, has been replaced by nontaxable and unrecorded benefits [bonuses] that banks offer for time and other deposits, etc.). - about 20% (-1.1% of the GDP) to the increase in tax revenues and net payments (contributions less pensions and other benefits) to insurance funds These data indicate that both private consumption and total domestic final demand (total consumption plus investments), as well as the real GDP for 2017 and the period increased at faster rates than the increase in recorded GDP by ELSTAT. Sectors January 2018 January 2017 Index of Industrial Production 1,0% 2,5% 4,1% 7,1% -1,7% Index of Production in Manufucturing 1,8% 4,2% 3,3% 1,0% 6,4% Turnover Index in Manufucturing Industry -10,3% -5,1% 11,5% 27,7% 12,6% Index of Production in Construction 2,5% 23,5% -15,1% - - Volume Index in Contruction Licences -0,2% -6,6% 19,3% - - Turnover Index in Accommodation & Restaurants 3,1% 0,1% 9,9% - - Non Residents Arrivals 7,1% 5,1% 9,7% -2,4% 16,0% Tourism Receipts 5,5% -6,4% 10,5% -6,5% -3,0% Turnover Index in Wholesale Trade -4,4% -1,6% 3,7% - - Turnover Index in Retail Trade -2,9% -2,0% 1,7% - - Volume Index in Retail Trade -1,5% -0,6% 1,3% - - Pirate Car Sales 13,9% 10,9% 22,1% 32,5%1 45,4%1 Turnover Index for Motor Trades 7,7% 7,7% 6,4% - - Employment (LFS) 2,1% 1,7% 2,2% - - Exports of Goods and Services (Current Prices) -8,9% -6,1% 13,5% 27,3% 15,2% Imports of Goods and Services (Current Prices) -14,3% -4,2% 12,6% 26,8% 21,9% GDP: Estimations by Hellenic Statistical Authority (Update data 2015&2016&2017) Private Consumption (2010 prices) -0,5% 0,0% 0,1% - - Fixed Asset Investments ( 2010 prices) -0,3% 1,6% 9,6% Investments in Equipment ( 2010 prices) 7,8% -12,3% 28,9% - - Change of Investments. in inventories ( billion) -190,0% 110,0% 132,8% - - Exports of Goods and Services (2010 prices) 3,1% -1,8% 6,8% - - Imports of Goods and Services (2010 prices) 0,4% 0,3% 7,2% - - Source: BoG, ΕLSΤΑΤ - Processing: SETE Intelligence January-February, * Εstimation Developmnets in selected sectors of the Greek Economy In any case, the higher growth of the Greek economy in 2017 and the apparent continuation along the same course in the first two months of 2018 is clear from developments in its key sectors (see Table). Statistical Bulletin March

23 Execution of the State Budget: Data regarding the execution of the 2017 Budget (B2017) appear to confirm our projection that the General Government Primary Surplus (GGPS) in 2017 will exceed 3.5% of the GDP, after accounting for the extraordinary expenditures of 1.4 billion in December 2017 for the so-called social dividend. Moreover, the execution of B2018 in January and February 2018 supports estimates for a 2018 GGPS higher than the 3.82% of the GDP provisioned in B2018 and the 3.5% required by the 3rd MOU. The large GGPS in 2017, combined with the far-better-than-expected execution of B2018 in the first two months of 2018, is expected to significantly speed up negotiations to wrap up the 4th Bailout Review, following the completion of the 3rd Review with the Euro Working Group's approval of the 6.7 billion tranche ( 5.7 billion paid in March 2018, plus 1 billion in June 2018). The continued achievement of a GGPS at higher levels than those required once again highlights the misguided projections of Greece's inability to achieve the necessary GGPS, and the need to impose new growth and fiscal measures on the country in 2019 and Specifically, the projection for achieving a GGPS higher than 3.82% of the GDP in 2018 is based on: a) the far-betterthan-expected execution of budgets in 2015, 2016 and 2017 due to the fact that structural reforms implemented in the period have helped to drastically reduce primary public expenditures and are already contributing to a satisfactory increase in General Government revenues; b) the imposition of additional fiscal measures amounting to 0.6% of the GDP, to be implemented in early 2018; and c) the expected increase in the nominal GDP by 4.0% in This projection is already being borne out by the execution of B2018 for the first 2 months of 2018, indicating the following: - at the level of Central Government, in the first two months: o net revenues in the Budget (B) came to 675 million above target; o total Budget primary expenditures were lower than target by 112 million; o the public investment program surplus was higher than targetted by 656 million (also due to the transfer of revenues from the EU-28 structural funds from B2017 to B2018). o overall the Central Government Primary Surplus came to 2.44 billion, compared to the targeted surplus of 1 billion. Statistical Bulletin March

24 - at General Government (GG) level, on a consolidated cash basis for January 2018: o GG revenues rose by +10.3% (January 2017: -1.7%). o primary expenditures plus the increase in overdue Greek State obligations rose +4.0% (January 2017: +2.6%). o as a result, the GGPS on a cash basis came to 3.95 billion, from 3.32 billion in January Approval of the 6.7 billion tranche Following the completion of the 3rd Bailout Review, the EWG approved the payment of the 6.7 billion tranche, 5.7 billion of which will be paid in March 2018 and the balance of 1 billion in June Financing through markets: After S&P, Fitch and Moody's upgraded Greece's credit rating, the Greek State issued 12-month Greek Treasury Bills, through which it raised 813 million, plus million from non-competitive offers, at an interest rate of 1.25%, further strengthening its position on the market. This took place despite the relative upset on international markets as a result of the Fed s interest rate increases on 21 March 2018 (to 1.5%-1.75%) and market projections for three additional increases within Yields on Greek Government Bonds fell in March after rising in February from levels to which they had dropped in January. They remain at relatively low levels (10-year at 4.11% on average in February), despite the fact that the ECB does not intervene to stabilise trade in Greek bonds, as is the case with government bonds in other Southern European countries. New improvement in the economic climate: The foregoing developments contributed to impressively improving Greece s Economic Sentiment Indicator (Feb. 2018: 104.3, Jan. 2018: 101.9, Dec. 2017: 101.0, Nov. 2017: 98.4, May 2017: 93.2) and Consumer Confidence Index (February 2018: -53, January 2018: -51), while the Services Expectation Index came to 18.9 in February 2018, up from 13.4 in December 2017 and 6.6 in March Statistical Bulletin March

25 Finally, employment and unemployment rates are moving in a positive direction: - According to the most recent Labour Force Survey (seasonally adjusted figures), in December 2017: o There were 3.76 million employed compared to 3.65 million in the same month in 2016, and 3.65 million in The number of employed is the highest since o The unemployed population amounts to 989,200, compared to 1.12 million last year and 1.16 million in After peaking at 27.9% in 2013, unemployment has gradually dropped to 20.8% (though it is still high), compared to 23.4% last year and 24.0% in o The economically inactive population amounts to 3.25 million, compared to 3.26 million last year, and 3.38 million at its peak in Based on the ERGANI Information System s results, paid employment rose by +16,628 jobs in February 2018, compared to +24,938 in February Major contributing factors in increasing employment were accommodation (+2,393) and catering services (+1,917), and it is noteworthy that no sector showed marked losses. The sector with the greatest losses, for example, was the food industry, with a loss of -359 jobs. Statistical Bulletin March

26 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) February 2018 Statistical Bulletin March

27 Finland had the highest CCI in February 2018, at For the same period, the OECD-country average is at 101.1, presenting a +0.6% increase over February The largest percentage increase for February was demonstrated by Turkey with +2.2%, followed by Greece in second place with +2.1% and Austria third at +1.5%. The CCIs of Turkey (99.0) and Greece (98.5) are lowest of the countries analysed and the only ones under 100. Only Sweden showed a decrease (-0.2%), with a CCI of for February Consumer Confidence Index, FEBRUARY 2018 Austria Belgium Czech 2018 Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Israel Italy Netherlands Poland Russia Slovakia Sweden Switzerland Turkey Great Britain U.S.A. OECD January 101,6 101,3 103,2 101,8 104,0 101,0 102,0 98,6 102,3 100,9 101,7 102,0 102,0-102,9 101,2-98,1 100,6 101,2 101,0 February 101,7 101,1 103,4 101,8 104,0 100,8 102,0 98,5 102,4-101,7 102,0 102,2-102,9 100,9-99,0 100,7 101,4 101,1 Average 101,6 101,2 103,3 101,8 104,0 100,9 102,0 98,6 102,3 100,9 101,7 102,0 102,1-102,9 101,1-98,5 100,7 101,3 101,1 Austria Belgium Czech 2017 Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Israel Italy Netherlands Poland Russia Slovakia Sweden Switzerland Turkey Great Britain U.S.A. OECD January 100,0 100,7 102,8 101,1 102,9 100,5 100,9 96,8 101,9 100,6 100,7 101,6 101,2 98,8 102,5 101,0 100,1 96,6 100,7 101,3 100,5 February 100,1 100,8 102,8 101,3 103,0 100,5 100,9 96,5 101,9 100,5 100,5 101,8 101,2 99,0 102,4 101,1 100,2 96,8 100,7 101,3 100,5 March 100,3 100,9 102,8 101,4 103,1 100,6 101,1 96,3 101,9 100,6 100,4 101,8 101,3 99,2 102,5 101,2 100,1 97,5 100,7 101,2 100,6 April 100,4 101,0 102,8 101,5 103,3 100,7 101,3 96,4 101,7 100,7 100,3 101,7 101,4 99,3 102,6 101,2 100,0 98,2 100,6 101,2 100,7 May 100,6 101,0 102,6 101,5 103,4 100,9 101,5 96,6 101,7 100,8 100,2 101,6 101,5 99,5 102,7 101,1 100,1 98,6 100,5 101,1 100,8 June 100,7 101,1 102,4 101,6 103,5 101,1 101,7 97,0 101,7 100,8 100,2 101,7 101,5 99,8 102,7 100,9 100,2 98,6 100,4 101,0 100,8 July 100,8 101,2 102,4 101,6 103,6 101,1 101,7 97,5 101,7 100,8 100,4 101,7 101,5 100,0 102,7 100,8 100,5 98,5 100,4 101,0 100,8 August 100,9 101,4 102,4 101,6 103,8 101,0 101,6 97,9 101,7 100,8 100,8 101,8 101,5 100,3 102,8 100,8 100,8 98,2 100,4 101,1 100,8 September 101,0 101,5 102,5 101,6 104,0 100,8 101,7 98,2 101,8 100,8 101,3 101,8 101,6-102,8 100,9-97,6 100,5 101,2 100,9 Οctober 101,2 101,5 102,6 101,6 104,0 100,8 101,7 98,4 101,8 100,9 101,5 101,8 101,6-102,8 101,1-97,0 100,5 101,4 101,0 Νovember 101,4 101,4 102,8 101,7 104,0 100,9 101,8 98,5 102,0 100,9 101,6 101,9 101,7-102,8 101,3-96,7 100,5 101,3 101,0 December 101,5 101,4 103,0 101,7 104,0 101,0 101,9 98,6 102,2 100,9 101,7 101,9 101,9-102,8 101,3-97,1 100,5 101,2 101,0 Average 100,0 100,7 102,8 101,2 102,9 100,5 100,9 96,6 101,9 100,6 100,6 101,7 101,2 98,9 102,4 101,1 100,2 96,7 100,7 101,3 100,5 Austria Belgium Czech Change Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Israel Italy Netherlands Poland Russia Slovakia Sweden Switzerland Turkey Great Britain U.S.A. OECD January 1,6% 0,6% 0,5% 0,7% 1,0% 0,5% 1,1% 1,9% 0,4% - 1,0% 0,3% 0,8% - 0,4% 0,1% - 1,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,5% February 1,5% 0,3% 0,6% 0,5% 1,0% 0,3% 1,1% 2,1% 0,5% - 1,2% 0,2% 0,9% - 0,5% -0,2% - 2,2% 0,0% 0,1% 0,6% Average 1,6% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 1,0% 0,4% 1,1% 2,0% 0,4% - 1,1% 0,3% 0,9% - 0,4% 0,0% - 1,9% 0,0% 0,0% 0,6% Source: OECD - Processing: SETE Intelligence The following charts show the course of the CCI in each country over the past 24 months, in comparison with the average for OECD countries (black line). Statistical Bulletin March

28 Statistical Bulletin March

29 The following table shows the position of each country in comparison with the OECD average and whether the CCI has improved from 24 months earlier. The countries with an improved CCI and levels above the OECD average are those one might well expect to be in correspondingly higher demand, while the opposite holds true for countries with a CCI below the OECD average or which was trending downward. In some cases an increase/decrease in the index indicates an increased/decreased inclination towards consumption, while levels higher/lower than the OECD average indicate markets with consumers exhibiting comparatively higher/lower consumer confidence. In any case, the consumption capacity of each country depending on per capita GDP and disposable income should be borne in mind. Of particular note is the change experienced by Britain, going from a country with a rising CCI that was higher than the OECD index, to a country with a dropping CCI and a lower value compared to the OECD. Compared with OΕCD average Lower value Higher or Equal Value In comparison with 12 months before Increase Greece Turkey United Kingdom France Austria Belgium Czech Republic Germany Denmark Italy Finland Hungary Netherlands Poland Slovakia USA Decrease Sweden Source: OECD Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCΕ Statistical Bulletin March

30 Turnover Indexes in: Tourism, Air & Sea Transports and Travel Agents Statistical Bulletin March

31 The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) prepares the Turnover Indexes (TI) for Transport and Tourism on a quarterly basis, using the year 2010= as the base year. Turnover Indexes are business cycle indicators that depict the development of the service industry. The aim of these indexes is to measure the activity of the sectors under study in terms of value. Turnover includes the total amounts invoiced by a business during the reference period and which relate to the sale of goods and services to third parties. Possible subsidies for products/services are also taken into account. VAT and other related discounted taxes directly connected to turnover are excluded. The same applies for duties and taxes on goods and services invoiced by the business. Furthermore, it does not include other operating income, financial income and extraordinary income of the business. A representative sample of 300 transport businesses and 249 tourism businesses with an annual turnover equal to or greater than 250,000 from all around Greece were used to calculate the Tourism and Transport Turnover Index in the survey. For further information about Turnover Indexes and their preparation method, visit the Tourism Turnover Index webpageor the Transport & Travel Agent Turnover Index webpage. Statistical Bulletin March

32 TURNOVER INDEXES PER QUARTER PERCENTAGE CHANGES / / / / / / /2016 Turnover index in accommodation and food service Q ,6% -24,0% -16,8% 44,9% 3,4% -11,0% 0,9% Q ,2% -20,8% 5,3% 6,7% 8,7% -1,3% 7,4% Q ,1% -11,5% 1,2% 7,7% 4,8% 2,9% 14,7% Q ,3% -21,7% 36,2% 11,3% -9,0% 3,9% 7,1% Turnover index in travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities Q ,7% -37,9% -3,9% 11,3% 24,0% -13,0% -4,3% Q ,3% -39,3% -2,3% 4,6% 8,3% -7,0% 6,5% Q ,5% -13,5% 15,4% 6,8% -11,0% 1,4% 13,3% Q ,2% -21,1% 31,8% 5,9% -17,6% -4,9% -3,3% Turnover index in air transport Q ,5% -5,6% -1,1% 0,5% 3,1% 6,3% 3,5% Q ,8% -8,8% 9,3% 12,7% 4,2% -3,4% 16,6% Q ,5% 1,2% 6,2% 11,5% 11,8% 7,4% 6,8% Q ,5% 9,4% -2,2% -2,5% 8,6% 5,3% 4,2% Turnover index in sea transport Q ,1% -13,8% -10,3% -18,8% -4,9% 0,0% -13,2% Q ,7% -14,5% -7,3% -11,1% 2,5% -5,8% -10,9% Q ,0% -20,5% -5,9% -5,5% -7,5% -2,2% -10,2% Q ,3% -5,9% -7,6% 0,7% -10,9% -11,5% -2,2% Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority - processing: SETE Intelligence The turnover index for the hospitality and catering services sector was up +7.1% in the 4th quarter of 2017 compared to the 4th quarter of The air transport turnover index is at a high level with an increase of +4.2%. The travel agency turnover index presented a decrease of -3.3% compared to the same quarter last year. Conversely, the turnover indexes for sea transport are significantly lower than the high levels of 2010, and are at the lowest levels for 4th quarter for the period Statistical Bulletin March

33 The turnover index for the hospitality and food services sector for 4th quarter 2017 was at the second-highest level for the period The index was up +7.1% compared to 2016, as opposed to the +3.9% increase noted last year when comparing the 4th quarter of 2016 to The 4th quarter index was also down -67.0% from the 3rd quarter 2017 index (as opposed to -64.6% in 2016) due to the strong seasonality of the sector. Statistical Bulletin March

34 The turnover index for travel agents, package tour agencies, booking services and related activities for 4th quarter 2017 fell -3.3% from the corresponding index for 3rd quarter 2016, compared to a -4.9% decrease when comparing the corresponding period in 2016 with The index is at the highest level since the 3rd quarter of The turnover index for travel agencies, package tour agencies, booking services and related activities for the 4th quarter of 2017 dropped by -61.3% in comparison with the corresponding index for the 3rd quarter of 2017 (compared to -54.7% in 2016, respectively), highlighting the sector's marked seasonality. Statistical Bulletin March

35 The turnover index for air transport in the 4th quarter 2017 was at the highest level for the period The index was up +4.2% compared to 2016, as opposed to the +5.3% increase noted last year when comparing the 4th quarter of 2016 to The 4th quarter index was also down -53.0% from the 3rd quarter 2017 index (as opposed to -51.9% in 2016, respectively) due to the strong seasonality of the sector. Statistical Bulletin March

36 The turnover index for sea transport for 4th quarter 2017 compared to the corresponding index for 4th quarter 2016 was down -2.2% as opposed to a -11.5% decrease derived from comparing the same period in 2016 to The index is at the highest level since the 3rd quarter of The turnover index for sea transport activities for 4th quarter 2017 was down -50.8% from the corresponding index in 3rd quarter 2017 (compared to -54.8% in 2016, respectively), as a result of the sector's seasonality. Statistical Bulletin March

37 Statistical Bulletin March