PKSMAKROEKONOMSKEinfo Novembar 2014.

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1 PKSMAKROEKONOMSKEinfo Novembar 14. Priprema Centar za ekonomske analize redakcija časopisa Konjunkturni trendovi Srbije Tel: * MESEČNI MAKROEKONOMSKI PREGLED br. 111 Novembar 14. Bruto domaći proizvod Bruto domaći proizvod srpske privrede je, prema fleš proceni Republičkog zavoda za statistiku, u trećem tromsesečju 14. godine realno opao za 3,7% u odnosu na odgovarajući kvartal 13. Procena je vršena prema novoj metodologiji nacionalnih računa ESA 1, koja se primenjuje i u zemljama Evropske unije. U odnosu na vrednosti pre revizije, sve navedene promene uticale su na povećanje BDP-a u celoj vremenskoj seriji za koju su revidirani podaci ( ) u proseku za 7%, od čega je oko 1 p.p. direktno uslovljen primenom metodoloških rešenja iz ESA 1. Tako je realni rast BDP u 13. godini, prema novoj metodologiji procenjen na,6%, umesto ranije procenjenih,5%. Polazeći od makroekonomskih uslova nakon poplava, projekcija kretanja BDP u 14. godini je revidirana naniže. Pad BDP od 1-1,5% u 14. godini biće posledica reducirane industrijske proizvodnje, a pre svega, smanjene aktivnosti u sektorima rudarstva i energetike, dok bi doprinos građevinarstva, zbog obnove porušenih i oštećenih objekata, trebalo da bude pozitivan. Potrošačke cene Cene potrošnih proizvoda i usluga su u septembru 14. godine zabeležile rast u proseku za,7% u odnosu na prethodni mesec. Septembarski rast potoršačkih cena bio je u potpunosti iniciran poskupljenjem prehrambenih proizvoda (mesečna stopa rasta,5%), koji su u ovom mesecu, prvi put nakon godinu dana, zabeležili i međugodišnji rast cena od 1,6%. * MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC SUREY No 111 (November 14) Gross domestic product Gross domestic product of the Republic of Serbia, according to a flash estimate of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, decreased in real terms by 3,7% in the third quarter of 14, as compared to the corresponding quarter of 13. The estimate was carried out according to the new methodology of the national accounts ESA 1, which is applied in the European Union. As compared to the values before the audit, the aforementioned changes influenced the increase of GDP in the whole revised period ( ) on average by 7%, of which near 1 percentage points is directly conditioned by the application of methodological solutions from the ESA 1. Therefore, according to the latest methodology, a real GDP growth in 13 was estimated at.6%, instead of early.5%. In view of macroeconomic conditions after floods, the projection of GDP in 14 was revised on lower level. A drop in GDP of 1-1.5% in 14 will be a result of decreased industrial production and especially of decreased activities in mining and energy sector, whereas due to reconstruction of destroyed and damaged facilities, the contribution of construction industry should be positive. Consumer prices Prices of consumer goods and services in September 14 grew on average by.7% as compared to the previous month. The September growth in consumer prices was completely initiated by the increase of prices of food products (monthly growth rate.5%), which in this month, for the first time this year recorded the inter-annual growth in prices of 1.6%. Procenti I Godišnja stopa 1 I Mesečna stopa 13 I 14 I Per cent I Yearly rate 1 I 13 I 14 I Monthly rate Inflacija (procenti) Izvor: RZS, odgovarajuća Saopštenja Posmatrano po glavnim grupama proizvoda i usluga klasifikovanih prema nameni potrošnje, u septembru 14. godine, u odnosu na prethodni mesec, najveći rast cena zabele- 1* Izvori podataka: Republički zavod za statistiku RS, Narodna banka Srbije, Ministarstvo finansija RS, Nacionalna služba za zapošljavanje, Beogradska berza i Agencija za privatizaciju. Monthly and Annual Inflation Rate, Source: National Statistic Agency Observed by the main groups of products and services classified by the consumption purpose, in September 14, as compared to the previous month, the largest growth in prices was recorded 1* Data soruces: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, National Bank of Serbia, Ministry of Finance, National Employment Service, Belgrade Stock Exchange and Privatization Agency. 1

2 žen je u grupama: hrana i bezalkoholna pića (,3%), obrazovanje (1,6%), restorani i hoteli (,7%), transport i stan, voda, električna energija, gas i druga goriva (za po,4%), odeća i obuća (,3%) i u grupama nameštaj, pokućstvo i tekuće održavanje stana i komunikacije (za po,%). Pad cena evidentiran je u grupama rekreacija i kultura (-5,8%) i alkoholna pića i duvan (-,1%), dok se cene ostalih proizvoda i usluga nisu bitnije menjale. Međugodišnja septembarska stopa inflacije je povećana na,1%, ali uprkos tome, i dalje je ispod donje granice ciljane vrednosti. Do kraja godine međugodišnja stopa inflacije trebalo bi da se vrati u ciljane okvire, pre svega zbog niske baze cena prehrambenih proizvoda iz prethodne godine. Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja u Republici Srbiji u septembru 14. godine bila je manja za 16,% u poređenju sa istim mesecom prethodne godine, dok je u odnosu na prosek 13. godine bila manja za 1,%. Septembarski pad proizvodnje uticao je da kumulativna industrijska proizvodnja za devet meseci 14. godine, bude smanjena za 5,7% u poređenju sa odgovarajućim razdobljem prethodne godine. Posmatrano prema desezoniranim podacima, industrijska proizvodnja u septembru opala je za 4,6%, a proizvodnja u prerađivačkoj industriji za 5,6% u odnosu na avgust. U okviru prerađivačke industrije, najveći negativan doprinos ukupnoj industriji potiče od proizvodnje derivata nafte. S druge strane, najveći pozitivan doprinos ukupnoj industriji dala je proizvodnja motornih vozila. in the following groups: food and non-alcoholic beverages (.3%), education (1.6%), restaurants and hotels (.7%), transport and apartment, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (by.4% each), clothing and footwear (.3%) and in the groups: furniture, household devices and regular maintenance of house (by.% each). The fall in prices was recorded in the groups: recreation and culture (-5.8%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (-.1%), whereas the prices of other goods and services did not change substantially. The inter-annual inflation rate in September increased to.1%, however, it is still below the low limit of the target rate. By the end of the year, the inter-annual inflation rate should return to the target rate due to low base of prices of food products from the previous year. Industrial production Industrial production, in the Republic of Serbia, in September 14, decreased by 16.% compared to the same month of the previous year, whereas compared to the average of 13, it decreased by 1.%. The fall recorded in September influenced the cumulative industrial production to be reduced by 5,7% for the nine months of 14 as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Observed by seasonally adjusted data, industrial production decreased by 4.6% in September, while the production in manufacturing industry decreased by 5.6% in relation to August. In manufacturing industry, the largest negative contribution to the total industry was made by production of oil derivatives. On the other side, the largest positive contribution to the total industry was given by manufacture of motor vehicles. 4 4,8 3,7,8,6,1 4 4,8 3,7,8,6, Procenti -6-5,7 Per cent -6-5, ,8-1,8-16 Makedonija Slovenija* BIH Hrvatska Republika Srpska Srbija Crna Gora -16 Makedonija Slovenija* BIH Hrvatska Republika Srpska Srbija Crna Gora Stope promena industrijske proizvodnje u bivšim jugoslovenskim republikama, (januar-septembar 14. / januar-septembar 13.) Napomena: *Za Sloveniju su publikovani podaci za period januar-avgust. Izvor: Nacionalne statistike Sva tri sektora domaće industrije zabeležila su pad produkcije u septembru ove godine, u odnosu na septembar 13. godine i to: snabdevanje električnom energijom, gasom, parom i klimatizacije za 38,9%, rudarstvo za 9,6% i preređivačka industrija za 8,8%. Dramatičan pad proizvodnje u posmatranom mesecu zabeležen je kod energije, a nešto umereniji i u proizvodnji međufaznih proizvoda i trajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju. Proizvodnja netrajnih proizvoda za široku potrošnju je stagnirala, dok je rast produkcije ostvaren jedino kod kapitalnih proizvoda. Posmatrano po pojedinim oblastima, najveći uticaj na pad industrijske proizvodnje u septembru 14. godine, u odnosu na odgovarajući mesec prethodne godine, imale su: proizvodnja električne energije, proizvodnja derivata nafte, eksploatacija uglja, proizvodnja hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda i proizvodnja metalnih proizvoda, osim mašina. Industrijal Production Growth Rates in the Former Yougoslav Republics, (January-September 14/ January-September 13) Note: * For Slovenia data presented for period january-august Source: National statistics In September this year in comparison with September 13, a drop in production was recorded with all three sectors of the domestic industry as follows: supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by 38.9%, mining by 9.6% and manufacturing industry by 8.8%. In the observed month, dramatic decline in production was recorded with energy, and a slight drop was noted in the production of intermediate products and durable consumer goods. Production of non-durable consumer goods stagnated, whereas a growth in production was realised with capital products only. Observed by individual sectors, the largest impact on the fall in production in September 14, as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, was made by: generation of electricity, production of oil derivatives, exploitation of coal, production of chemicals and chemical products and production of metal products other than machinery.

3 Zalihe industrijskih proizvoda Zalihe industrijskih proizvoda u septembru 14. godine bile su niže za 3,8% u odnosu na isti mesec prethodne godine, a najveći pad zabeležen je kod energije (-,5%), što je direktna posledica energetskog kolapsa, izazvanog majskim poplavama. Do smanjenja zaliha, mada u nešto manjem obimu, došlo je i kod ostalih grupa proizvoda svrstanih po nameni, osim intermedijarnih proizvoda čije su zalihe blago uvećane. Zalihe ruda porasle su u posmatranom mesecu za 3,5% (u odnosu na septembar 13. godine), čemu je doprinelo, pre svega, povećanje zaliha sirove nafte i prirodnog gasa i uglja. Zalihe prerađenih industrijskih proizvoda smanjene su u septembru ove godine za 4,% u odnosu na odgovarajući mesec prethodne godine, a najveći pad zaliha evidentiran je kod: koksa i derivata nafte; štampanih i audio i video zapisa; motornih vozila i prikolica; računara, elektronskih i optičkih proizvoda; kože i predmeta od kože; osnovnih farmaceutskih proizvoda i proizvoda od duvana. Poljoprivreda U oblasti poljoprivrede, aktuelan je rebalans agranog budžeta za 14. godinu, kojim poljoprivreda dobija 4,6 mlrd. dinara manje, a oblast zaštite životne sredine 864 miliona dinara više sredstava. Smanjenje sredstava za poljoprivredu nakon rebalansa budžeta za 14. godinu, neće uticati za količinu sredstava namenjenih subvencionisanju poljoprivredne proizvodnje, već su uštede ostvarene povlačenjem sredstava za projekte koji su bili predviđeni budžetom, ali se njihova realizacija, ipak, neće ostvariti u ovoj kalendarskoj godini. Za narednu 15. godinu predlaže se izmena uslova za ostvarivanje prava na subvencionisanu poljoprivrednu proizvodnju. Jedna od glavnih promena tiče se obaveze poljoprivrednih proizvođača da izvrše ispitivanje zemljišta, nakon čega bi mogli da konkurišu za subvencije u proizvodnji onog proizvoda kojem struktura datog zemljišta najviše odgovara. Promet robe Promet robe u trgovini na malo u Republici Srbiji, opao je u septembru u odnosu na avgust 14. godine, za 5% u tekućim cenama i za 5,8% u stalnim cenama, dok je prema svim ostalim septembarskim pokazateljima evidentiran rast prometa. Posmatrano u stalnim cenama, u septembru 14. u odnosu na isti mesec 13. godine promet je povećan za 1,6%, u odnosu na prosek 13. godine za,5%, a u periodu januar-septembar 14. u odnosu na isti period 13. godine za,4%. Posmatano u tekućim cenama, rast prometa ostvaren je u septembru 14. u odnosu na septembar 13. godine za,8%, u odnosu na prosek 13. godine za 4,8%, a u periodu januar-septembar 14. u odnosu na januar-septembar 13. godine za 3,9%. Turizam Turistička aktivnost u Republici Srbiji za prvih devet meseci 14. godine, u odnosu na isti period 13. godine, iskazala je pad ukupnog broja dolazaka turista za,7% i ukupnog broja noćenja za 7,4%. Broj dolazaka i noćenja domaćih turista opao je za 9,8% i 14,1%. Povoljniji trend ostvaren je u inostranom turističkom prometu, budući da je povećan broj dolazaka inostranih turista za 1,4% i broj njihovih noćenja Stocks of industrial products Stocks of industrial products, in September 14, decreased by 3.8% as compared to the same month of the previous year, and the largest decline was recorded with energy (-.5%), which a direct result of energy collapse caused by flooding in May. The stocks were reduced with other groups of products classified by purpose, other than intermediate products whose stocks slightly increased. The stocks of ore increased by 3.5% in the observed month (as compared to September 13), which was mainly contributed by the growth in stocks of crude oil, natural gas and coal. The stocks of processed industrial products decreased by 4.% in September this year in relation to the corresponding month of the previous year, whereas the largest drop was recorded with: coke and oil derivatives; printed and audio and video recording media; motor vehicles and trailers; computers, electronic and optical products; leather and leather goods; basic pharmaceutical products and tobacco products. Agriculture In the field of agriculture, the current rebalancing of agricultural budget for 14 envisages lower agricultural budget by 4.6 billion RSD and by 864 million RSD more for environmental protection. After the budget rebalance for 14, the reduction of funds allocated to agriculture will not impact the level of subsidies for agricultural production, yet the savings were made by withdrawing funds for projects which were planned by budget, but they will not be implemented in this year. For 15, it has been proposed that the conditions for exercise of rights on subsidised agricultural production should be amended. One of the main amendments refers to that agricultural producers are under an obligation to trial soil and after that they can apply for subsidies for the production of a product for which the structure of the soil is the most suitable. Retail trade Turnover in retail trade in the Republic of Serbia, in September, as compared to August 14, decreased by 5% at current prices and by 5.8% at constant prices, whereas according to other September indicators, a growth was recorded in retail turnover. Observed at constant prices, in September 14, as compared to the same month of 13, the turnover increased by 1.6%, and in relation to the average of 13, by.5%. In the period January - September 14, as compared to the same period of 13, it increased by.4%. Expressed at current prices, a growth in turnover of.8% was realised in September 14, as compared to September 13, if compared with the average of 13, it grew by 4.8%, while in the period January September 14, relative to January September 13, it was higher by 3.9%. Tourism Tourism activity in the Republic of Serbia, for the first nine months of 14, compared to the same interval of 13, showed that the total number of tourist arrivals decreased by.7% and that the total number of overnight stays decreased by 7.4%. The number of domestic tourist arrivals and overnight stays decreased by 9.8% and by 14.1%. More favourable trend was recorded with the international tourism industry, since it saw a growth in the number of arrivals by 1.4% and in the number of overnight stays by 9.1%. In the period Janu- 3

4 za 9,1%. Republiku Srbiju je u periodu januar-septembar 14. godine posetilo ukupno (domaćih i stranih) turista i ostvareno je ukupno noćenja. Zaposlenost Ukupan broj zaposlenih poslednjeg dana septembra 14. godine procenjuje se na lica, od čega je lica (ili 77,8%) radilo u okviru privrednih društava, dok je preduzetnika i zaposlenih kod njih bilo (,%). U poređenju sa prethodnim mesecom, ukupan broj zaposlenih je opao za 611 lica, dok je u odnosu na septembar 13. smanjen za lice, ili za 1,1%. Nezaposelnost Ukupan broj nezaposlenih u Republici Srbiji, prema podacima Nacionalne službe za zapošljavanje, poslednjeg dana septembra 14. godine iznosio je lica, od čega je na posao duže od godinu dana čekalo lica. U poređenju sa prethodnim mesecom, nezaposlenost je smanjena za 1,1%, dok je broj dugoročno nezaposlenih opao za,9%. Administrativna stopa nezaposlenosti za septembar iznosi 8,85% i manja je u odnosu na prethodni mesec kada je iznosila 9,9%. Nezaposlenost je opala i kada se podaci uporede sa septembrom prethodne godine i to za 1,4%, ali je dugoročna nezaposlenost u ovom periodu uvećana za 1,9%. Prosečne zarade Prosečna zarada isplaćena u septembru 14. godine, od 6.83 dinara, nominalno je smanjena za 3,5%, a realno za 4,% u odnosu na prethodni mesec. U poređenju sa septembrom prethodne godine, prosečno isplaćena zarada u septembru 14. bila je nominalno uvećana za,8%, a realno za,7%. Prosečna zarada isplaćena u periodu januar septembar 14. godine, u poređenju sa prosečnom zaradom isplaćenom u periodu januar septembar 13. godine, nominalno je veća za 1,5%, dok je u realnom iznosu manja za,6%. Prosečne zarade bez poreza i doprinosa Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u septembru 14. godine iznosila je dinara. U poređenju sa prosečnom zaradom bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćenom u avgustu 14. godine, nominalno je manja za 3,6%, a realno za 4,3%. Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u septembru 14. godine, nominalno i realno je porasla za,6% i,5%, respektivno, u odnosu na prosečnu zaradu bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćenu u odgovarajućem mesecu prethodne godine. Prosečna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćena u periodu januar septembar 14. godine, u odnosu na prosečnu zaradu bez poreza i doprinosa isplaćenu u periodu januar septembar 13. godine, nominalno je veća za 1,7%, a realno je manja za,4%. Spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Ukupna spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena Republike Srbije za period januar septembar 14. godine iznosila je 6.769,6 miliona USD (19.71,6 miliona EUR), što je za 5,4% (,3%, posmatrano u evrima) više u odnosu na odgovarajući period 13. godine. Izvezeno je robe u vrednosti od 11.53,7 miliona USD (8.91,7 miliona EUR), što čini rast od 6,% (3,1%) u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, ary September 14, the Republic of Serbia was visited by a total of 1,699,168 (domestic and foreign) tourists and a total of 4,859,97 overnight stays were recorded. Employment Total number of employed persons, on the last day of September 14, was estimated at 1,686,55 people, of which 1,311,31 persons (or 77.8%) were employed with companies, whereas the number of private entrepreneurs and those employed with them amounted to 375,195 (.%). In comparison with the previous month, the total number of employed persons decreased by 611 persons, while if compared with September 13, it decreased by 18,751 persons, or by 1.1%. Unemployment Total number of unemployed persons, in the Republic of Serbia, according to the data of the National Employment Service, at the end of September 14, amounted to 748,549 people, of which the number of unemployed persons for the period longer than one year amounted to 514,65 persons. If compared to the previous month, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.1%, whereas the number of long-term unemployed persons fell down by.9%. Administrative unemployment rate for September amounted to 8.85% and decreased as compared to the previous month, when it was 9.9%. The unemployment rate decreased by 1,4%, if the data are compared with September of the previous year, however, the longterm unemployment in this period increased by 1.9%. Average wage Average wage paid out in September 14 amounted to 6,83 RSD, and decreased nominally by 3.5% and by 4.% in real terms, in relation to the previous month. In comparison with September of the previous year, the average wage paid out in September 14 nominally increased by.8% and by.7% in real terms. The average wage paid out in the period January September 14, in comparison with the average wage paid out in the period January September 13, nominally increased by 1.5%, while it decreased by.6% in real terms. Average wage without taxes and contributions Average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in September 14 amounted to 43,975 RSD. If compared with the average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in August 14, it nominally decreased by 3.6% and by 4.3% in real terms. Average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in September 14 increased both nominally and in real terms by.6% and by.5%, respectively, as compared to the aaverage wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the corresponding month of the previous year. The average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the period January September 14, as compared to the average wage without taxes and contributions paid out in the period January September 13, nominally increased by 1.7% and decreased by.4% in real terms. Foreign trade in goods Total foreign trade in goods in the Republic of Serbia, for the period January September 14, amounted to 6,769.6 million USD (19,71.6 million EUR), which was an increase of 5.4% (.3%, expressed in EUR) compared to the corresponding period of 13. The export of goods reach the value of 11,53.7 million USD 4

5 a uvezeno za ,9 miliona USD (11.49,9 miliona EUR), što je za 4,8% (1,7%) više nego lane u istom periodu. Negativan saldo robne razmene u posmatranom periodu iznosio je 4.6, miliona USD (3.138, miliona EUR), što čini povećanje od 1,3% (1,9%) u odnosu na odgovarajući period prethodne godine, dok je istovremeno pokrivenost uvoza izvozom povećana sa 71,6% na 7,5%. Najveći obim razmene u posmatranom periodu ostvaren je sa zemljama sa kojima postoje potpisani sporazumi o slobodnoj trgovini; zemlje EU učestvovale su sa 64,1% u ukupnoj spoljnotrgovinskoj razmeni Srbije za devet meseci 14. godine. Drugi po značaju partner Srbije predstavljaju zemlje CEFTA, sa kojima je ostvaren suficit u razmeni od 1.46,8 miliona USD, a koji je najvećim delom rezultat izvoza žitarica i proizvoda od njih, raznih vrsta pića i raznih gotovih proizvoda. Najzastupljeniji proizvodi u uvozu iz ovih zemalja su: gvožđe i čelik, električna energija, kameni ugalj i briketi. Izvoz Srbije u CEFTA region za tri kvartala ove godine iznosio je.134,7 miliona USD, a uvoz 673,9 miliona, uz značajnu pokrivenost uvoza izvozom od 316,8%. Pojedinačno, najznačajniji spoljnotrgovinski partneri Srbije u izvozu u periodu januar-septembar 14. bili su: Italija (1.994,1 milion USD), Nemačka (1.38, miliona USD), BIH (987,5 miliona USD), Ruska Federacija (78,7 miliona USD) i Crna Gora (58,7 miliona USD). Ostali 34% Italija 18% Nemačka 1% (8,91.7 million EUR), which was a growth of 6.% (3.1%) as compared to the same period of the previous year, whereas the goods were imported in the value of 15,515.9 million USD (11,49.9 million EUR), which was an increase of 4.8% (1.7%) in relation to the same period of the previous year. The negative trade balance for the observed period amounted to 4,6. million USD (3,138. million EUR), which was a growth of 1.3% (1.9%) compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, while at the same time the coverage of import by export increased from 71.6% to 7.5%. In the observed period, the largest volume of trade in goods was realised with the countries with which the free trade agreements have been signed; the share of the EU countries in the total foreign trade of Serbia for the nine months of 14 amounted to 64.1%. The second important partner to Serbia were the CEFTA countries, with which the trade surplus of 1,46.8 million USD was realised. It was mainly a result of the export of cereals and cereal products, miscellaneous beverages and final products. The major products in the import from these countries are: iron and steel, electricity, hard coal and briquettes. The export from Serbia to the CEFTA countries for the three quarters of this year amounted to,134.7 million USD, while the import was worth million, with significant coverage of import by export to the amount of 316.8%. Individually, the most important foreign trade partners to Serbia in exports, in the period January September 14, were as follows: Italy (1,994.1 million USD), Germany (1,38. million USD), BIH (987.5 million USD), the Russian Federation (78.7 million USD) and Montenegro (58.7 million USD). Rest 34% Italy 18% Germany 1% Hrvatska 3% Slovenija 3% Makedonija Rumunija 4% 5% Crna Gora 5% Ruska Federacija 7% Regionalna struktura izvoza, januar-septembar 14 Izvor: Republički zavod za statistiku U uvozu, glavni spoljnotrgovinski partneri, pojedinačno, bili su: Nemačka (1.851,4 miliona USD), Ruska Federacija (1.79, miliona USD), Italija (1.77,9 miliona USD), Kina (1.166,7 miliona USD) i Poljska (76,6 miliona USD). Najveći suficit tokom posmatranog perioda ostvaren je u razmeni sa: BIH, Crnom Gorom, Makedonijom, Italijom, Rumunijom i SAD; a najveći deficit u trgovini sa Kinom (zbog uvoza telefona za mrežu stanica i laptopova), Ruskom Federacijom (zbog uvoza energenata, pre svega, nafte i gasa), Poljskom (zbog uvoz delova za motorna vozila), Nemačkom, Mađarskom,Turskom, Austrijom i Holandijom. Prema odsecima Standardne međunarodne trgovinske klasifikacije, najveće učešće u izvozu Srbije za devet meseci 14. imali su: drumska vozila (1.61, miliona USD), električne mašine i aparati (888,7 miliona USD), povrće i voće (551,6 miliona USD), žitarice i proizvodi od njih (56,5 miliona USD) i odevni predmeti (48,5 miliona USD). Izvoz ovih pet odseka činio je 36,% ukupnog izvoza u posmatranom periodu. BIH 9% Croatia 3% Slovenia 3% Macedonia Romania 4% 5% Montenegro 5% B&H 9% Rusian Federation 7% Regional Structure of Exports, January-September 14 Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. In imports, the main individual foreign trade partners were: Germany (1,851.4 million USD), the Russian Federation (1,79. million USD), Italy (1,77.9 million USD), China (1,166.7 million USD) and Poland (76.6 million USD). During the observed period, the highest surplus was recorded in trade in goods with: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Romania and the USA; whereas the highest trade deficit was recorded with China (due to the import of the phones for the network of stations and laptops), the Russian Federation (due to imports of energy sources, mainly oil and gas), Poland (import of parts for motor vehicles), Germany, Hungary, Turkey, Austria and the Netherlands. According to the sections of the Standard International Trade Classification, the goods with the largest share in Serbia s exports for the nine months of 14 were: road vehicles (1,61. million USD), electrical machinery and apparatus (888.7 million USD), vegetable and fruit (551.6 million USD), cereals and cereal products (56.5 million USD) and apparel (48.5 million 5

6 Prvih pet odseka sa najvećim učešćem u uvozu bili su: drumska vozila (1.695,3 miliona USD), nafta i naftni derivati (1.34, miliona USD), prirodni gas (647,9 miliona USD), električne mašine i aparati (611,3 miliona USD) i medicinski i farmaceutski proizvodi (53,1 miliona USD), a njihov uvoz čini 31,1% ukupnog uvoza. Odsek nerazvrstana roba, u koji se sada uključuje i roba na carinskom skladištu, imao je učešće u ukupnom uvozu od 1,7%. Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije Bilans razmene poljoprivrede i prehrambene industrije Srbije s inostranstvom pokazuje da je u periodu januar-septembar 14. godine ostvaren izvoz u vrednosti od.187,7 miliona USD, što predstavlja rast od 14,1% u odnosu na rezultate iz perioda januar-septembar 13. godine. Udeo ove vrste proizvoda u ukupnom robnom izvozu Srbije za devet meseci 14. godine iznosio je 19,4%. Istovremeno, vrednost uvoza u visini od 1.175,7 miliona USD je za,4% veća u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, a njeno učešće u ukupnom robnom uvozu je 7,6%. Suficit u spoljnotrgovinskoj razmeni poljoprivredno-prehrambenih proizvoda u periodu januar-septembar 14. godine, iznosio je 1.1, miliona USD i ima rast od 35,5% u odnosu na isti period 13. godine, a stopa pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom je 186,1%. Bilans razmene usluga Bilans razmene usluga Srbije sa inostranstvom Narodna banka Srbije objavila je u okgobru 14. godine, sa podacima za period januar-avgust 14. godine. Podaci se zasnivaju na novoj metodologiji, prema Uputstvu Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda «Balance of Payment Manual 6«(BPM6). Prema ovim podacima, za prvih osam meseci 14. godine ostvaren je izvoz usluga Srbije u vrednosti od 3.68 miliona USD i uvoz u vrednosti od.945 miliona USD, tako da je ostvaren suficit od 33 miliona USD. Pokazatelj pokrivenosti uvoza izvozom za prvih osam meseci 14. godine je 111%. Platni bilans Deficit tekućeg računa platnog bilansa za perod januar-avgust 14. iznosio je 1.79 miliona EUR, što je za 1,6% manje nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Najveći doprinos sužavanju deficita imalo je smanjenje neto odliva deviza po osnovu robnog prometa za 6% i rast neto priliva deviza po osnovu prometa usluga od 4,4%. Tekući račun Kapitalni račun Saldo tekućeg računa i računa kapitala USD). These five sections accounted for 36.% of total exports of Serbia in the observed period. The first five sections with the largest share in imports were: road vehicles (1,695.3 million USD), oil and oil derivatives (1,34. million USD), natural gas (647.9 million USD), electrical machinery and apparatus (611.3 million USD) and medical and pharmaceutical products (53.1 million USD), and these accounted for 31.1% of total imports. The section of unclassified goods, which now includes the goods in the customs warehouses, recorded a share in total imports of 1,7%. The balance of foreign trade in agriculture and food industry Balance of foreign trade in agriculture and food industry of Serbia in the period January September 14, showed the export value of,187.7 million USD, which was a growth of 14.1% as compared to the results from the period of January September 13. The share of this sector in the total exports of Serbia for the nine months of 14 amounted to 19.4%. At the same time, the value of imports of 1,175.7 million USD was by.4% higher if compared with the same period of the previous year, its share in the total imports was 7.6%. The surplus in foreign trade in agricultural and food products in the period January September 14 amounted to 1,1. million USD and grew by 35.5% as compared to the same period of 13, while the import/export coverage rate was 186.1%. The balance of trade in services Balance of foreign trade in services for the period January August 14, the National Bank of Serbia released in October 14. The data are based on new methodology, according to the «Balance of Payment Manual 6«(BPM6). According to it, for the first eight months of 14, the export of services from the Republic of Serbia was recorded in the value of 3,68 million USD and the imports in the value of,945 million USD, thus a surplus of 33 million USD was recorded. The indicator of import/export coverage rate for the eight months of 14 was 111%. Current account deficit Current account deficit of balance of payments, for the period January August 14, amounted to 1,79 million EUR, which was a decrease of 1.6% as compared to the same period of the previous year. The largest contribution to the decrease in trade deficit was made by the reduction of net outflow of foreign currencies under trade in goods by 6% and a growth of net inflow of foreign currencies under the trade in services of 4.4%. Current Account Capital Account Current and Capital Acount Balance Milioni evra I-III 13 I-III 14 Million EUR I-III 13 I-III 14 Tekući i kapitalni račun platnog bilansa Republike Srbije, januar-avgust 13. i 14. Izvor: Narodna banka Srbije Current and Capital Account, January-August 13 and 14 Source: National Bank of Serbia. 6

7 isok neto odliv deviza u periodu januar-avgust ove godine evidentiran je po osnovu primarnog dohotka (744 miliona EUR), mada je u poređenju sa odgovarajućim periodom prethodne godine ovaj odliv smanjen za 5%. Iako je u neto iznosu iskazao pad u odnosu na prethodnu godinu od 5,4%, sekundarni dohodak ostaje i dalje najznačajnija suficitna stavka u tekućem računu, sa 1.99 miliona EUR neto deviznog priliva. Najznačajnija stavka sekundarnog dohotka su doznake radnika koje su u posmatranom periodu ostvarile neto pozitivan saldo od 1.48 miliona EUR. Strane direktne investicije Neto priliv SDI za osam meseci 14. godine iznosio je 77 miliona EUR, što je za 1,9% manje nego lane u istom periodu. Prema NBS, procenjeni iznos neto stranih direktnih investicija za celu 14. godinu je 1,5 mlrd. EUR, ili 3,9% BDP-a, što bi bio rast u odnosu na prethodnu godinu kada su iznosile 1,3 mlrd. EUR, ili 3,8% BDP-a. Za 15. godinu procenjuje se rast priliva SDI na oko 1,4 mlrd. EUR, što bi činilo 4,3% BDP-a. Neto priliv portfolio investicija u prvih osam meseci ove godine iznosio je 33 miliona EUR, što predstavlja trećinu njihovog priliva iz perioda januar-avgust 13. godine, a najveći priliv je ostvaren u trgovini državnim dugoročnim obveznicama. Ostale investicije beleže neto odliv od 74 miliona EUR, kao posledica neto odliva gotovog novca i depozita i otplate kredita. Spoljni dug Spoljni dug je poslednjeg dana avgusta 14. godine, iznosio 6,1 mlrd. EUR, što je za 835 miliona više u odnosu na jul. Dug javnog sektora je 13,7 mlrd. EUR i u celosti se odnosi na srednjoročne i dugoročne obaveze, dok dug privatnog sektora iznosi 1,4 mlrd. EUR i gotovo u celosti se odnosi na srednjoročne i dugoročne obaveze, pošto je samo 148,9 miliona EUR iznos kratkoročnih obaveza. U strukturi spoljnog duga javnog sektora, najveći dužnik je lada centralnog nivoa vlasti sa 95,4%, a u strukturi privatnog duga, preduzeća sa 76,6%. Najveći deo duga javnog sektora potiče od obaveza prema stranim vladama, Pariskom klubu, Evropskoj investicionoj banci i Međunarodnoj banci za obnovu i razvoj, kao i po osnovu prodatih državnih obvenizaca denominiranih u evrima. Najveći deo duga privatnog sektora odnosi se na komercijalne kredite. Javne finansije Konsolidovani bilans sektora države je, prema podacima Ministarstva finansija, u periodu januar-septembar 14. godine zabeležio deficit u vrednosti od 134 mlrd. dinara i manji je u odnosu na isti period prošle godine. Brži rast prihoda u odnosu na rashode posledica je ograničenog rasta rashoda za plate i penzije. U strukturi konsolidovanih prihoda indirektni porezi čine 4,4%, dok na strani rashoda najveće učešće imaju rashodi za plate i penzije sa 53,7%. U strukturi konsolidovanih prihoda, budžet Republike učestvuje sa 54,1%, a na strani rashoda sa 39,6%. The high net outflow of foreign currencies in the period January August 14 was recorded under the primary incomes (744 million EUR), although in comparison with the corresponding interval of the previous year this outflow decreased by 5%. Although the secondary income showed a net decrease of 5,4% as compared to the previous year, it is still the most important in the current account with a surplus of 1,99 million EUR of net inflow of foreign currency. The remittances of our people working abroad are the most important in the secondary income, which in the observed period achieved a net positive balance of 1,48 million EUR. Foreign direct investments Net inflow of FDI, for eight months of 14, amounted to 77 million EUR, which was a decrease of 1.9% as compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the NBS, the estimated amount of net inflow of FDI for 14 was 1.5 billion EUR, or 3.9% of GDP, which was a growth if compared to the previous year, when it was 1.3 billion EUR, or 3.8% GDP. For 15, a growth of net inflow of FDIs is expected to reach 1.4 billion EUR, which would account for 4.3% of GDP. The net inflow of investments in the first eight months this year amounted to 33 million EUR, which was one third of their inflow from the period January August 13. The highest inflow was recorded in trade with state long-term bonds. Other investments recorded a net outflow of 74 million EUR, which is a result of net outflow of cash money, deposit and credit payment. Foreign debt Foreign debt of Serbia, on the last day of August 14 amounted to 6.1 billion EUR, which was by 835 million more in relation to July. The public sector debt stood at 13.7 billion EUR and it refers both to medium-term and long-term liabilities, whereas debt of the private sector amounted to 1.4 billion EUR and it refers almost on the whole to medium-term and long-term obligations, since only million EUR is the amount of short-term obligations. In the structure of foreign debt the public sector, the central government level is the greatest debtor with 95.4%, and in the structure of private sector debt, the companies own 76.6%. The largest share of the public sector debt derives from liabilities towards foreign governments, the Parisian Club, the European Investment Bank and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development as well as under the sold state bonds denominated in EUR. The largest share of debt of private sector refers to commercial credit lines. Public finance Consolidated public sector balance sheet, according to the data obtained from the Ministry of Finance, in the period January September 14, recorded trade deficit in the value of 134 billion RSD and was lower in relation to the same period of the previous year. Faster growth of revenues, compared to expenditures, is a result of the limited growth of expenditures for wages and pensions. In the structure of consolidated revenues, the indirect taxes account for 4.4%, whereas the largest share in the expenditures is for wages and pensions with 53.7%. In the structure of consolidated revenues, the budget of the Republic of Serbia participates with 54.1%, and with 39.6% in expenditures. 7

8 U periodu nakon drugog tromesečja 1. godine uočava se trend pada primarnog deficita (razlika između tekućih prihoda i tekućih rashoda korigovana za iznos neto kamate), kao i sve veći uticaj rashoda za kamate na fiskalni rezultat. Following the second quarter of 1, there was a falling trend in the primary deficit (difference between current revenues and current expenditures administered for an amount of net interest rate), as well as increasing impact of expenditures for interest rates on fiscal result. U procentima BDP , ,5-1, ,6-4,5-4, , I 14I I -5-7,6-4,4 In per cent of GDP , ,5-1, ,6-4,5-4, , I 14I I -5-7,6-4,4 Konsolidovani fiskalni rezultat kao % BDP-a (5-QII 14) Izvor: Ministarstvo finansija Javni dug Ukupan javni dug centralnog nivoa vlasti je poslednjeg dana septembra 14. godine iznosio,1 mlrd. EUR, što je za mlrd. EUR više u odnosu na poslednji dan 13. godine (kada je iznosio,1 mlrd. EUR). Direktne obaveze po osnovu javnog duga iznose približno 19,5 mlrd. EUR, od čega na unutrašnji dug otpada 8 mlrd. EUR, a na spoljni dug 11,5 mlrd. Indirektne obaveze su,6 mlrd. EUR, od čega se 7 miliona odnosi na unutrašnji dug, a 1,9 mlrd. na spoljni dug. Javni dug je, poslednjeg dana septembra, dostigao 68,8% BDP-a, s tendencijiom da do kraja ove godine premaši 7% BDP-a, a u sledećoj godini se približi nivou od oko 8%. Consolidated Fiscal Result - as per cent of GDP Source: Ministry of Finance The total public debt Total public debt of the central level of the state, on the last day of September 14, amounted to.1 billion EUR, which was an increase of billion EUR, as compared to the last day of 13 (when it was.1 billion EUR). Direct liabilities under the public debt amounted to near 19.5 billion EUR, of which the internal debt accounted for 8 billion EUR, and the foreign debt was 11.5 billion. Indirect liabilities amount to.6 billion EUR, of which 7 million refers to the internal debt, and 1.9 billion is the foreign debt. On the last day of September, the public debt reached 68.8% of GDP, with tendency to exceed 7% of GDP by the end of this year, and to approach the level of near 8% in the following year. Ukupan javni dug (leva skala) Učešće javnog duga u BDP (desna skala) Total public debt (left scale) Public debt/gdp ratio (right scale) Milioni RSD % Million RSD % Ukupan javni dug, -14. Izvor: Narodna banka Srbije Devizne rezerve Devizne rezerve NBS su poslednjeg dana septembra 14. godine, iznosile 1.877,6 miliona EUR, što je 3,1 puta više od novčane mase M1 i što obezbeđuje nešto više od sedam meseci uvoza robe i usluga. U poređenju sa prethodnim mesecom, devizne rezerve NBS smanjene su za 71, miliona EUR, na šta je najvećim delom utacao odliv deviza po osnovu izmirivanja obaveza prema inokreditorima u iznosu od 143,8 miliona EUR i otplate duga MMF-u u iznosu od 67,4 miliona EUR. Total Public Debt, -14 Source: National Bank of Serbia Foreign exchange reserves Foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Serbia at the end of September 14 amounted to 1,877.6 million EUR, which is 3.1 times higher than the Money Supply M1, and provides the coverage for more than seven-month imports of goods and services. As compared with the previous month, the NBS foreign exchange reserves decreased by 71. million EUR, which was largely impacted by the outflow of foreign exchange on ground of settling the debt to foreign creditors in the amount of million EUR and the repayment of the debt to IMF in the amount of 67.4 million EUR. 8

9 Devizne rezerve komercijalnih banaka su krajem septembra ove godine bile niže za 1 milion EUR u odnosu na prethodni mesec i iznosile su 1.1,5 miliona. Ukupne devizne rezerve Repblike Srbije na dan 3. septembra 14. godine bile su manje za 7, miliona EUR u odnosu na avgust i iznosile su 1.99,1 milion. U strukturi ukupnih deviznih rezervi Republike Srbije najveće učešće imaju hartije od vrednosti ( 6%) i efektiva i depoziti u inostranstvu (3%). As at the end of September, the foreign exchange reserves of the commercial banks were lower by 1 million EUR compared to the previous month and they stood at 1,1.5 million. As at 3 September 14, the total foreign exchange reserves of the Republic of Serbia reached the amount of 1,991.1 million EUR, which is lower by 7. million EUR compared to August. In the structure of total foreign exchange reserves of the Republic of Serbia, the securities have the largest share (6%) followed by cash and deposits abroad (3%). Foreign exhange reserves of banks 1% Gold 4% SDR 1% Cash holdings and deposits abroad 4% Securities 61% Struktura deviznih rezervi Republike Srbije u septembru 14. godine Izvor: NBS Kurs dinara Kurs dinara je u septembru nominalno depresirao prema švajcarskom franku za,8%, prema evru za,9% i prema SAD dolaru za čak 4,5%, uprkos tome što je NBS u tom mesecu intervenisala na međubankarskom deviznom tržištu prodajom 135, miliona EUR, kako bi smanjila prekomerne kratkoročne oscilacije deviznog kursa. Tako je od kraja prethodne godine dinar ukupno obezvređen za 3,5% u odnosu na evro, za 5% u odnosu na švajcarski franak i za 11,% u odnosu na dolar. Efektivni kurs dinara takođe je depresirao u septembru ove godine, kako u odnosu na prethodni mesec, tako i u odnosu na kraj 13. godine. U nominalnom izrazu efektivni kurs dinara je depresirao za 1,7% u odnosu na avgust ove godine i za 4,4% u odnosu na decembar 13. godine, dok je njegova realna depresijacija iznosila 1,4% i,7%, respektivno. Monetarni pokazatelji Novčana masa M1 poslednjeg dana septembra 14. godine iznosila je 416,4 mlrd. dinara, što predstavlja pad za oko 9 mlrd. u odnosu na avgust, a pad su izkazali još i dinarski primarni novac, gotov novac u opticaju i depoziti po viđenju, dok su ostali monetarni agregati zabeležili rast. Ukupna štednja stanovništva poslednjeg dana septembra iznosila je 1.16,7 mlrd. dinara, što je za oko 8,5 mlrd. više nego u prethodnom mesecu. Međutim, usled depresijacije kursa dinara, ukupna štednja stanovništva je neznatno opala (za,5 miliona EUR) u odnosu na prethodni mesec i iznosi 8.554,5 miliona EUR. Izvršni odbor NBS je na sednici održanoj 16. oktobra ove godine, doneo odluku da ne menja referentnu kamatnu stopu, tako da će ona do naredne sednici zakazane za 13. novembar, ostati na nivou od 8,5%. Odluka je doneta na osnovu procene da rizici iz domaćeg i međunarodnog okruženja nalažu dalju opreznost u vođenju monetarne politike. Structure of Sebian Total Foreign Exhange Reserves in September 14. Source: National Bank of Serbia RSD exchange rate RSD exchange rate, in September, depreciated nominally by about.8% against CHF, by.9% against EUR and by as much as 4.5% against USD, although the National Bank of Serbia intervened in the interbank foreign exchange market by selling 135. million EUR in order to reduce excessive short-term volatility in exchange rates. Thus, since the end of the previous year, RSD depreciated against EUR by 3.5%, against CHF by 5% and against USD by 11.%. Effective RSD exchange rate also depreciated in September this year, as compared to both the previous month and the end of 13. The nominal effective exchange rate depreciated by 1.7% as compared to August this year, and by 4.4% compared to December 13, whereas its real effective depreciation stood at 1.4% and.7% respectively. Monetary indicators Money supply (M1) on last day of September 14 totaled billion RSD which is a drop of about 9 billion compared to August, and the decline was also recorded with the RSD primary money, physical cash and coins and demand deposits, whereas other monetary aggregates recorded an increase. Total citizens savings on the last day of September 14 recorded 1,16.7 billion RSD, which was higher by 8.5 billion as compared to the previous month. However, due to the depreciation of RSD exchange rate, total citizens savings decreased slightly (by.5 million EUR) as compared to the previous month, and it amounted to 8,554.5 million EUR. At the meeting held on 16 October 14, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia decided to keep the reference interest unchanged, so it will remain on the level of 8.5% until the next meeting scheduled for 13 November. The decision was made based on the estimates that the risks in the country and the region require further precaution in keeping the monetary policy. 9

10 Kretanje referentne kamatne stope u periodu godine Izvor: NBS Beogradska berza Informacije o prometu na Beogradskoj berzi pokazuju da je pozitivno kretanje ključnih indeksa Beogradske berze nastavljeno i početkom čevrtog tromesečja ove godine. Indeks BELEX15 je okončao oktobar u plusu od 6,17% u odnosu na kraj septembra, dok je BELEXline u istom periodu porastao za 5,4%. Kao posledica pozitivnih kretanja na tržištu, BE- LEXsentiment se treći mesec zaredom nalazi u zelenoj zoni, što iskazuje pozitivna očekivanja investitora za novembar mesec, mada u manjoj meri nego što je to bio slučaj u prethodnom mesecu. Key Policy Interest Rate in Period 6-14 Source: National Bank of Serbia Belgrade Stock Exchange Belgrade Stock Exchange transactions data show that the positive trends with the leading indexes on the Belgrade Stock Exchange continued at the beginning of the fourth quarter this year. At the end of October, as compared to the end of September, BELEX15 was higher by 6.17%, and BE- LEXline increased by 5.4%. As a consequence of the positive trends on the market, BELEXsentiment was in the green zone for three months in a row, which reflects the positive expectations of investors for November, though to a lower extent than in the previous month. Indeks max 154 min Index max 154 min I 6I 7II 7XII 8X 9II 1I 11I 1II 1XII 13X 14II 5I 6I 7II 7XII 8X 9II 1I 11I 1II 1XII 13X 14II BELEXsentiment, istorijski podaci Izvor: Beogradska berza Privatizacija Prema izveštaju Agencije za privatizaciju, u septembru 14. godine nije bilo privatizacionih prodaja. Na poziv Agencije za privatizaciju za prodaju 5 preduzeća u restrukturiranju stiglo je 1.73 ponude za 43 kompanije, dok za 99 kompanija u restrukturiranju nije bilo ponuda. Prema prvim procenama, ozbiljnih ponuda ima za oko 5-6 kompanija, a najveći interes je za preduzeća iz poljoprivredno-prehrambenog kompleksa, poput Poljoprivredne korporacije Beograd i Poljoprivredno-industrijskog kombinata Bečej. BELEXsentiment, Historical Data Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Privatization Privatization Agency has announced that in September 14, there were no new privatizations. After the invitation of the Privatization Agency for sale of 5 companies under restructuring, 1,73 bids were submitted for 43 enterprises, whereas there were no bids for 99 companies under restructuring. According to the first assessments, there are serious bids for only 5-6 companies, and the biggest interest was expressed in the companies from agricultural and food sector, such as Agricultural Corporation Belgrade and the Agricultural and Industrial Complex Becej. 1