4.1% 1.9% 1.9% Inflation, 2018* y-o-y. Retail Sales, March 2018 y-o-y, Poland
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1 City Report 2018
2 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% GDP Growth 2018* Inflation, 2018* y-o-y Unemployment rate March 2018, Warsaw PLN 6, % 1.8% Average salary, March 2018, Warsaw Retail Sales, March 2018 y-o-y, Poland Industrial production, March 2018 y-o-y, Poland Source: Consensus Forecasts, April 2018, Central Statistical Office, May 2018 *forecast Investment market In 2018, the total transacted volume in Poland amounted to ca. 2.0 billion, which was only 20% lower than the Q4 figure of The sector split comprised ca. 1,748 million in retail, 122 million in offices, 102 million in warehousing, with the remainder falling into hotel and mixed investment transactions. The market is illustrating a full spectrum of transactions from long-leased single assets through to complex portfolios. Given the number of on-going transactions and availability of product, we envisage that retail investment volume will exceed 3 billion for the entire During 2018, the Polish retail investment market witnessed the largest volume ever recorded, which resulted from transactions that were already on-going in 2017 and closings slipped into January Such a strong start to the year was created by only 4 transactions including 3 portfolio deals and 1 major regional shopping centre, namely: A portfolio of 28 established retail assets totalling 700,000 sq m GLA and consisting of 9 M1 shopping centres, 12 stand-alone hypermarkets, 4 retail parks and 3 DIY locations was sold by ARES/AXA/Apollo Rida to Chariot Top BV, a company managed by Griffin Real Estate and owned by Pimco, Oaktree and Redefine, for ca. 1.0 billion; A Griffin led Consortium subsequently sold 4 M1 shopping centres (Kraków, Zabrze, Czeladź and Łódź) to EPP for million. A further 8 assets are agreed to be sold in two tranches during the course of 2019 and 2020; Newbridge acquired 3 Carrefour anchored shopping centres from Aerium : Czyżyny in Kraków, Guliwer in Łódź and Bielawy in Toruń for an undisclosed price; Meyer Bergman sold Galeria Katowicka to EPF (Employees Provident Fund of Malaysia) for a price that remains confidential. The prime yields achievable for best-in-class, dominant, major shopping centres in Poland currently stand at level of 4.9%, while prime retail parks are expected to trade at approximately 7.0%. Office volumes in 2018 for Poland amount to 122 million and consist of 3 transactions. In Warsaw, the market witnessed the 55 million sale of Warta Tower by Kulczyk Silverstein Properties bought by Globalworth. Prime yields in Warsaw remain stable at a level of 4.75%-5.00% with potential to compress below 4.75% in the light of transactions currently in due diligence or under offer. The remaining two transactions took place in Wrocław and include a 54 million sale of Pegaz building by UBM to Warburg-HIH Invest and the sale of Plac Solny, an office building owned and occupied by BZ WBK to a private individual. Prime regional city yields remain at a level of sub. 6.00% for 5 year leases, with bps premium for longer leased properties. The market sentiment is exceptionally strong with ca. 0.5 billion scheduled for closing in Q and other signifficant projects moving into exclusivity for closing in Within the logistics sector, the market saw 3 transactions: Prologis sold part of its European portfolio (16 assets of which 1 was located in Sochaczew, Poland) to ARES; local developer Ideal Idea Formad sold Ideal Idea IV SBU park located in Warsaw to Segro setting the yield at a record low level in Warsaw s Inner City and Real Management sold Good Point Puławska II (located in Łubna, Warsaw Suburbs region) to Hillwood. Prime warehouse yields remain at a level of 6.50% with exceptional, long leased assets trading well below 6.00%. Warsaw City Report 2018
3 Prime Yields 4.90% 4.75% 6.50% Shopping Centre Office Industrial Poland Investment Volumes 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Office Retail Industrial Mixed Residential Hotels Key Investment Transactions in 2018 Sector Project Location COPYRIGHT Industrial JONES Good LANG Point LASALLE Puławska IP, II INC investment volumes reached almost 5.0 billion, 2016 exceeded 4.5 billion Approximate Value (million ) Retail Chariot Portfolio Across Poland ca. 1,000 Retail 4 M1 Centres Kraków, Zabrze, Czeladź, Łódź Vendor ARES / AXA / Apollo Rida Buyer Chariot Top BV EPP Retail Galeria Katowicka Katowice not disclosed Meyer Bergman EPF Retail Portfolio of 3 shopping centres (Czyzyny, Guliwer and Bielawy) Kraków, Łódź, Toruń Office Warta Tower Warsaw 55 Chariot Top BV not disclosed Aerium Newbridge Kulczyk Silverstein Properties Globalworth Office Pegaz Wrocław ca. 54 UBM Warburg-HIH Invest Industrial Prologis Park Sochaczew (part of European portfolio) Sochaczew not disclosed Prologis ARES Hotel Holiday Inn Warsaw Warsaw ca. 41 UBM Union Investment Industrial Ideal Idea IV Warsaw not disclosed Ideal Idea Formad SEGRO Warsaw Suburbs ca. 25 Real Management Warsaw Hillwood City Report 2018
4 Evolution of Gross Take-up, sq m 900, , , , , , , , , % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% New - Existing New - Prelet Expansion Owner Occupier Renewal Renewals share in gross take-up Source: JLL, PORF, 2018 Adjusted Vacancy*, 2018 Warsaw s stellar 2017 performance was further boosted by strong market fundamentals in As a result, Warsaw is cementing its place as the centre for business and office activity in the CEE region. sq m 600,000 12% Currently, two major trends are attracting the attention of both landlords and occupiers: the increasing role of property technology (PropTech) and the rise of the flexible working environment. 500, , , % 10.6% 9.0% 6.6% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% Such excellent market sentiment has resulted in increased occupier activity, which totalled 202,100 sq m in The volume of space under-construction amounts to 770,000 sq m, a large part of which is due for completion in A strong pipeline doesn t necessarily translate into oversupply every time. On the contrary, Warsaw proves, year after year, that its booming demand and absorption of new space is more than enough to balance the supply side of the market. That is further confirmed by decreasing vacancy rates throughout Warsaw. 200,000 Overall Source: JLL, 2018 Excl. Granular Vacancy Excl. Most Vacant Assets Excl. Long-Term Vacancy 6% * Adjusted Vacancy Rate represents completed floorspace offered on the market for leasing, vacant for immediate occupation on the survey date within the market, excluding the floorspace that can be regarded as unattractive given the current market conditions. The rate was calculated using three different approaches i.e. either: by subtracting from the overall vacancy the granular vacancy (i.e. units smaller than 500 sq m), or by subtracting from the overall vacancy the most vacant assets, or by subtracting from the overall vacancy the long term vacancy (i.e. units vacant for more than two years). Warsaw City Report 2018
5 Prime headline rents ( / sq m / month) North A-class B-class East Jerozolimskie corridor 2 4 West CBD City Centre Mokotów Żwirki i Wigury corridor Source: JLL, Puławska corridor Key Leasing Transactions in 2018 Completions in 2018 Qtr Property Graffit Europejski Ursynów, Wilanów Size (sq m) Qtr Property Occupier Contract type Deal size (sq m) Mokotów 16,600 Piękna 2.0 Confidential New deal 14,800 CBD 7,100 Varso II Cambridge Innovation Center Pre-let 13,500 Wolf Marszałkowska Ad Pilot New deal 10,300 Harmony Office Center II Bank Millennium Renewal 7,500 The Warsaw Hub Meet District Pre-let 7,000 Viacom Renewal& expansion 5,300 Submarket Source: JLL, PORF, 2018 Renaissance Building Source: JLL, PORF, 2018 Warsaw City Report 2018
6 Shopping centre density per 1,000 inhabitants Prime rents ( /sq m/month) sq m Shopping centres Retail Parks High street Density - existing Density - under construction * data as of April 2018 * Prime rents relate to a well located 100 sq m unit shop from the fashion and accessories category in leading retail assets in capital city (for retail parks 2,000 sq m units). Schemes completed in the Warsaw Agglomeration in Property Format Developer Size (sq m) Rondo Wiatraczna Shopping Centre Dantex 11,000 At the end of 2018, the modern retail stock in the Warsaw Agglomeration totalled 1.78 million sq m with shopping centres representing nearly 70% of the stock. Only one new project, namely Rondo Wiatraczna shopping centre opened in Warsaw in. Therefore, the shopping centre density in the city increased to the level of 477 sq m/ 1,000 residents, which is, however, still one of the lowest among the eight major agglomerations. The coming years will be interesting as approximately 193,100 sq m of GLA in 11 retail formats are now under construction. Developers attention is increasingly focused on maintaining the modern and attractive appeal of older retail schemes. Atrium Reduta, Atrium Promenada, Atrium Targówek and Centrum Janki are good examples of centres where the owners have recently started programs of remodeling and extensions. Mixed-use developments are on the rise, with the trend visible mostly in Warsaw (e.g. CEDET, EC Powisle, Koneser Centrum Praskie, Centrum Marszałkowska or Browary Warszawskie). Major shopping centres are well-positioned to compete against the e-commerce trend. These assets will continue to attract customers and tenants and, ultimately, deliver attractive returns. The average retail vacancy in shopping centres in Warsaw stood at 3.0% at the end of H2 2017, which is much lower than the average of 4.1% for cities with more than 175,000 inhabitants. Warsaw proves to be an attractive and stable market for new international chains. Newcomers are piling into the Warsaw market. In 2018, the Johnny Rockets chain from the United States opened its first restaurant at the Warsaw Chopin Airport. Initial results have been reported as very promising and beyond expectations. Warsaw City Report 2018
7 Schemes under construction in the Warsaw Agglomeration* Property Format Developer Size (sq m) Galeria Młociny Shopping Centre Echo Investment/ Echo Polska Properties 76,000 Nowa Stacja in Pruszków Shopping Centre ECC 26,800 Centrum Janki extension Shopping Centre Cromwell Property Group +21,000 Centrum Praskie Koneser Mix Use Development BBI Development/ Liebrecht & wood 21,000 EC Powiśle Mix Use Development White Star Real Estate/ Tristan Capital Partners 15,500 Atrium Targówek extension Shopping Centre Atrium Poland Real Estate Management +8,600 CEDET Mix Use Development Immobel 7,000 Browary Warszawskie Mix Use Development Echo Investment 6,000 Atrium Reduta extension Shopping Centre Atrium Poland Real Estate Management +5,800 Centrum Marszałkowska Mix Use Development BBI Development 3,400 Atrium Promenada extension Shopping Centre Atrium Poland Real Estate Management +2,000 * Rows marked dark grey apply to projects located in Warsaw city Quantum of space under construction with completion scheduled for the following years* ,100 sq m 97,000 sq m 6,000 sq m * Including all retail formats, status as of April 2018 Warsaw City Report 2018
8 Vacancy Rate in Poland: 5.6% 0.7% 7.5% 1.4% 0.2% Inner City: 10.7% Suburbs: 5.7 % 7% 2.8% 0% 2.9% 12.6% 4.1% Supply (thousand sq m) Demand in 2018 Warsaw Inner City & Warsaw Suburbs zones combined 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Stock (thousand sq m) UC (thousand sq m) 43% 70,000 sq m 57% 93,000 sq m Net Take-Up (sq m) Renewals (sq m) Warsaw City Report 2018
9 Net take-up by Sector in 2018(sq m) Warsaw Inner City & Warsaw Suburbs zones combined 4% 3% 3% 6% 6% 6% 93,000 sq m 46% 13% 13% Logistics operator Food Light manufacturing Pharmaceuticals Other Construction FMCG Electronics Retailer Key Transactions in 2018 Prime rents* ( / sq m / month) Tenant Property Size (sq m) Deal Type Sector Zone Headline Rents Effective Rent L Oreal Prologis Park Błonie II 19,500 Renewal FMCG Warsaw Inner City Frisco City Logistics Warsaw I 12,000 New deal Food Warsaw Suburbs DHL Panattoni BTS Koszajec 9,000 New deal Logistics operator *as of end 2018 Electrolux MLP Pruszków I 9,000 Renewal Electronics Dachser MLP Pruszków II 8,000 Renewal Logistics operator Warsaw City Report 2018
10 Contacts Mateusz Polkowski Head of Research & Consulting Anna Młyniec Head of Office Agency Poland Anna Wysocka Head of Retail Agency Poland Tomasz Olszewski Head of Industrial Agency, CEE jll.pl 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.
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