UK Office Market Outlook. Strongest regional take-up since 2007 H2 2015

Transcription

1 UK Office Market Outlook Strongest regional take-up since 27 H2

2 UK outlook Economic fundamentals remain sound The UK economy remains on a solid growth path with rising real wages, low inflation and improving business investment all providing momentum. This resulted in UK GDP growth of 2.2% in, led by sustained strength from the services sector in particular. The base case outlook for 216 is for more of the same, with growth forecast to reach 2.2% once again. Recent financial market turmoil reflects concerns over global growth, and a further deterioration of global prospects could impact the UK, along with uncertainty surrounding a referendum on EU membership. However, at present the economy appears likely to withstand these external pressures and once again out-perform most other developed economies. The economic outlook is strong across all of the Core 8 markets and their diverse economies. Employment growth is forecast to be strongest in Bristol and Manchester over 216, underpinning strong regional office market fundamentals. Supply gap addressed by pre-lets While overall supply conditions have been relatively static the lack of supply is a real pinch point for many of the Core 8 markets. The rate is just 2.2% on average, with Leeds and Bristol the lowest at 1.5%. The lack of available new supply and increased competition to attract and retain a workforce is motivating occupiers to pursue pre-lets. has seen a surge in pre-leasing activity across the Big 6 with 85, let across 17 transactions (five of which were sites). This compares to 15 over the previous five years, Speculative development activity slowed during H2. At end there was 4.4 sq ft under construction across the Core 8 markets (down 18% over 6 months) with the Western Corridor accounting for two thirds of this total. Manchester and Leeds accounted for the greatest share of development activity across the Big 6 markets. Strong regional take-up was a stellar year for regional occupier markets with take-up across the Core 8 regional markets reaching 7.7 sq ft, up 5.3% year-on-year and the highest total since 27. Activity is well ahead of the 1-year average of 6.6 sq ft and early indications are that 216 will at least match this average as demand from a broad range of business sectors remains strong across all markets. West London and Manchester dominated activity during H2, accounting for 677, (17%) and 633, (16%) of take-up respectively. was also particularly strong for Birmingham and Cardiff which recorded their strongest years on record while Edinburgh saw the highest take-up for over 1 years. Professional services dominated take-up across the Core 8 during, comprising 29% of take-up. Within this, law firms have been particularly active. The services and TMT sectors accounted for 21% and 17% respectively. There is 9.7 sq ft of live demand active across the Core 8 markets, dominated by the professional and public administration sectors. Rental growth continues Prime rental growth continues across the Core 8 markets with headline rents rising by 5.3% on average over the past year, led by Cardiff (9.1%), the Western Corridor (6.6%) and Manchester (6.3%). A number of pre-lets in Cardiff, including 15, to BBC Wales, instigated a step change in prime rents. Rent free periods continue to fall, enhancing growth in net effective rents, which have jumped by 11% on average over the past 12 months. Reflecting the solid outlook for demand and tight supply, we expect this growth to continue, with headline rental growth across the UK expected to average 2.7% per annum over the period Ben Burston Head of UK Office Research Core 8: Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Manchester and Western Corridor 2 UK Office Market Report H2

3 Core 8 take-up sq ft take-up 7.7m sq ft 16% ahead of 1 year average Big 6 Pre-let activity Pre-let site 1, Pre-let under construction Number of deals Deals 3 Deals 1 Deals 5 Deals 6 Deals by market share (sq ft) Bristol 491, Glasgow 571, Edinburgh 94, Manchester 1,322, Cardiff 493, Leeds 682, Birmingham 97, Western Corridor 2,34, 7% Leeds Birmingham Edinburgh Manchester 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Q4 29 Q4 21 Q4 211 Q4 212 Q4 213 Q4 214 Q4 Rents Average weighted prime rent psf +9.1% Cardiff Q Q4 +6.6% Western Corridor 31.4 ( +5.3% Y-o-Y) +6.3% Manchester +5.3% Birmingham Speculative development under construction (sq ft) end-214 end- 2.8m 1.5m 1.4m 1.4m UK office rental clock Q4 London West End London City Manchester Edinburgh slowing Rental growth Rental growth accelerating Rents falling Rents bottoming out Western Corridor Big 6 West London Western Corridor Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Leeds Glasgow, Thames Valley UK Office Market Report H2 3

4 Investment outlook Market pricing impacts on yield movement Investors continue to target regional offices with prime stock firmly on the radar for both UK and overseas money. After moving in across the board in H1, prime yields were stable in H2, with the exception of Bristol where yields edged out by 25 basis points. Looking ahead, we expect yields to remain well supported around current levels throughout 216, with the exception of Manchester where the weight of demand may see yields move in to 4.75%. The sustained low interest rate environment and the outlook for further rental growth remain supportive of property investment in regional markets, although uncertainty surrounding the looming EU referendum may impact on trading volumes. Investment volumes on a high Strong investor demand for regional offices is evidenced by the 5.4 billion traded across the Core 8 in, up 55% on 214. Western Corridor volumes more than doubled over 12 months to reach 2.3 billion while the Big 6 markets were up 17% over the same period. Of the Big 6 markets, Manchester and Birmingham were most active with 789 and 712 traded respectively. The second half of was more active across the Big 6 as overseas money came into the market pushing H2 volumes up 77% on H1. Global interest in the UK market remains diverse, with German, Middle Eastern, Singaporean and US buyers all active in. Volumes ( s) Big 6 investment volumes by origin of equity UK 1388m 5% Middle East 368m 13% German 34m 12% Singaporean 315m 11% US 164m 6% Other 182m 7% Glasgow Edinburgh 371 Prime yields 8.% 7.5% Thames Valley Manchester Edinburgh 1,2 Manchester Leeds 13 7.% 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 6 Cardiff Birmingham Bristol 428 1,66 Western Corridor 2,322 4.% UK Office Market Report H2

5 Key activity Quartermile 4, entirely pre-let, Edinburgh Cameron Stott Director Edinburgh Office Agency As at end-january 216 all 24, of under construction grade A stock was pre-let with JLL advising Cirrus Logic (75, at Quartermile 4) and SLI. JLL also advised HSBC (3,) and acted for JP Morgan (85,) in acquisitions at Edinburgh Park, both being examples of jobs north shoring out of the higher cost South East to Edinburgh. Edinburgh University is a strong factor, and they are investing further by leasing space at Argyle House (55,) and have acquired part of Quartermile to develop a Business School. 3&4 Callaghan Square and Ty Admiral, Cardiff Justin Millett Director Cardiff Investment JLL advised clients of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management on the acquisition of 3&4 Callaghan Square comprising two multi-let, office buildings, with a WAULT of 8 years to break, a low average average rent of per sq ft and strong tenant line up. The purchase price was 32. JLL also sold Admiral s new 27,, headquarters building on behalf of Union Investment to Amundi as part of a 1 billion trans-european portfolio. The apportioned pricing was 69, reflecting a 4.68% net initial yield, setting a new benchmark for Cardiff offices. Gloucester Business Park, Bristol Tenant: Horizon Nuclear Services Size: 5, Ian Wills Director Bristol Office Agency In February 216, Horizon moved in to their new HQ at Gloucester Business Park, the culmination of a 2.5 year project. In early 214 JLL was appointed to review their forthcoming breaks and expiries and help form a strategy to meet the future needs of the business. The business was forecasting rapid growth from 1 to over 4 staff plus 3rd party organisations. Property options were limited within a 2 mile radius and the decision was made to take a pre-let from Goodman. The Colmore Building, Birmingham Price: 138.3m Purchaser: Ashby Capital NIY: c. 6.25% Ben Kelly Director Birmingham Investment JLL advised Ashby Capital on the acquisition of this landmark property. Rebranded and relaunched as The Colmore Building, it is one of the finest new build offices in Birmingham. The building is two thirds let with a WAULT of 5 years to break and 7.5 years to expiry, secured against high profile corporate occupiers. The property offers significant asset management potential with 15, of vacant accommodation, which is ready to let into a market with constrained supply. UK Office Market Report H2 5

6 Birmingham Market overview The year finished strongly for the Birmingham market with over 21, of take-up recorded in Q4. This has resulted in almost 1 sq ft transacted over the year, a record annual figure. Occupier demand has been robust in and this is reflected in the considerable annual leasing volumes, with a number of notable transactions. The key deal in Q4 was Advanced Computer Software leasing 45, at The Mailbox. This represents a further example of Birmingham s growing record of securing inward investment. Good quality space remains at a premium in Birmingham, with the rate largely unchanged over the course of the year, at around 1.9%. Transactions continue to progress, placing pressure on supply and, despite a number of schemes in the pipeline and under construction there is some time until delivery. As a result, the outlook for 216 is for pressure to remain on prime space with those occupiers looking to secure good quality space increasingly using the pre-let route. Prime rents were unchanged over the year, holding up at 3 per sq ft. However, with occupier demand anticipated to remain positive into 216, upward pressure on rents should continue. Incentives continued their downward trend as seen throughout and have declined further in Q4. Current rent free periods are now 24 months on a 1 year term. The investment market had another strong quarter during Q4, with 9 transactions completing. This completed a stellar with overall volumes reaching 712, with a strong start to 216 also anticipated with over 4 under offer. The largest transaction over the quarter was the sale of One Brindleyplace for %. Prime yields remained at 5% in Q4 and were unchanged over the whole of. 1, year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy supply is under pressure Prime rents Overall 12.5% 3. psf 1.9% stable year-on-year City centre boundary revised in Q1, impacting rates headline rents stable after Q1 growth 24. psf net effectives increase by 5.3% Investment volumes Jonathan Carmalt Leasing Ben Kelly Investment Strong uplift in and positive outlook for UK Office Market Report H2

7 Bristol Market overview The Bristol city centre office market had a disappointing end to with Q4 take-up just short of 1, and bringing the annual total to 491,, below the 5 year annual average of 533,. The market was dominated by deals below 1, in and while the market saw only 2 fewer deals than 214, the volume of take-up was down 41% year-on-year. The outlook for 216 is already more positive with EDF due to complete on 78, at Bridgewater House in Q1, underlying strong economic conditions and significant improvements to the city s infrastructure. The lack of new space in the city centre continues to be a real pinch point with a rate of 1.5% and falling. However, since the start of 216 Cubex has started construction of Aurora delivering 95, of new build space by end-217. A number of major refurbishment schemes have also started on-site. Headline prime rents remained unchanged over the course of at 28.5 per sq ft but incentives moved in to 18 months rent free on a 1 year term. The real rental growth story is the better quality second hand market where strong competition for space has seen rental growth of 1% - 3% year-on-year. Bristol s city centre investment market experienced an exceptionally strong with 428 traded, the highest volume recorded for the city by JLL. The sale of One Glass Wharf in Q4, as part of the Mapletree Portfolio, equated to circa 15 and put Bristol on the radar for overseas money. A strong level of demand for investment product will continue into 216 but, to reflect market pricing, prime yields moved back out 25 basis points to 5.25% at year-end Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy Despite year-on -year increase supply remains constrained Prime rents 5 year average 28.5 psf headline rents increased 1.8% y-on-y Overall 7.1% up from 6.2% Rents forecast to break 3. psf in % up from 1.1% Investment volumes Ian Wills Leasing Oliver Paine Investment = highest annual volume recorded UK Office Market Report H2 7

8 Cardiff Market overview The Cardiff city centre office market finished the year in buoyant fashion with a record breaking Q4. 29, transacted in the final quarter of the year, taking annual take-up to over 49,, the highest annual figure seen in Cardiff. This was boosted by the key deal of the year occurring in Q4, with BBC Wales pre-letting 15, at phase two of Central Square. There were also a number of other sizeable transactions over the quarter, such as Public Health Wales taking over 5, at 2 Capital Quarter, also helping to boost the overall quarterly figure. As a result of the strong take-up levels seen in Q4, overall supply has tightened and the rate has fallen to 7.2%. Prime space remains scarce and as evidenced with the large BBC Wales deal, occupiers are looking toward the pre-let route to secure good quality space. There is space under construction within the market but the majority of this is either let or under offer and the market will face a supply gap for new stock over the next months. Looking ahead, there has been further speculative development announced by way of further phases at Central Square and Capital Quarter. Prime rents moved up from 22 to 24 per sq ft over the quarter, highlighting the level of activity and the quality of space being acquired. Rental growth was an impressive 9% over the quarter. As supply has reduced incentives have also tightened in Q4 and declined from 18 to 15 months rent free on a 1 year term. The Cardiff investment market saw a spectacular end to the year with just over 25 worth of transactions. The most significant was the forward funding of the BBC Wales HQ and a 135, speculative office building at 1 Central Square by L&G. In addition, Amundi purchased the Admiral HQ building in David Street as part of a portfolio for Despite a number of noticeable transactions over the quarter, prime yields remained stable at 6% Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Prime rents Vacancy Strong take-up tightens good quality supply 24. psf headline rents increased 9.1% 5 year average Overall 7.2% falling from 8.5% Growth in prime rents forecast H2 216 = 25. psf.6% Investment volumes Rhydian Morris Leasing Justin Millett Investment volumes far exceeded UK Office Market Report H2

9 Edinburgh Market overview The Edinburgh market has finished the year positively with 335, of take-up recorded in Q4. This resulted in 94, of space transacted in, the highest level for over 1 years. The largest deal in Q4 was Edinburgh University acquiring 57, at Argyle House. Occupier demand has been strong throughout which has been driven by both lease events and also a number of expanding technology companies looking for suitable space. The market remains characterised by a lack of good quality space and the current rate for stock is 1.9%. There are a number of active large requirements; although the lack of stock is resulting in a number of occupiers looking for pre-let opportunities. Furthermore, the development pipeline is also tight and, as at end-january 216, all space under construction was pre-let. The next wave of development will not deliver new space until end-217 at the earliest. With prime space increasingly scarce, rents moved up over the quarter to 31 per sq ft. There are a number of pre-lets under negotiation and with more expected in 216, further upward pressure on rents is anticipated. Incentives have hardened over the course of the year and now stand at 24 months rent free on a 1 year term. In line with occupational market performance, investment volumes were robust in the final quarter of the year, as total volumes stood at 371. A strong theme is the increasing appetite from overseas investors, who acquired over 6% of this total volume. The key transaction over the quarter was the purchase of Standard Life House, 3 Lothian Road for Prime yields were unchanged over the quarter at 5.25%. 1, Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy expected to reduce during H1 216 Overall 4.8% down from 6.3% Speculative space under construction Pre-lets absorb new space under construction 5 year average Q , all available 1.9% down from 2.3% Q4 7, under offer Prime yields Hardened by 25 basis points over 12 months Cameron Stott Leasing Colin Finlayson Investment Q % Q2 5.25% Q4 5.25% UK Office Market Report H2 9

10 Glasgow Market overview The Glasgow office market witnessed a solid year with take-up exceeding the five year average and Q4 finishing the year strongly with almost 12, transacted. Occupier demand was steady with healthy competition for space as the market continues to experience a shortage of prime space. The largest transaction of the year occurred in Q4, with KPMG taking almost 4, in St Vincent Plaza. The overall rate has largely remained around 1% for the duration of. However, there remains a shortage of good quality space and the rate ended at just 3.1%. Furthermore, with no new build space due for completion before 218, pre-letting may become more prevalent in 216. Next year may also result in more landlords undertaking significant refurbishments as demand is expected to remain strong and prime space is still scarce. Prime rents have moved up over the year from 29.5 to 3. per sq ft as scarcity of supply and steady occupier demand has resulted in rents rising. Incentives have remained tight in and now stand at 21 months rent free on a 1 year term. The investment market saw a strong with over 35 transacted over the year. With strong volumes recorded over the course of, yields have hardened by 25 basis points and finished the year at 5.25%. The largest transaction over the year was the M&G purchase of 12 Bothwell Street for 73 in March year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy under pressure and will reduce in 216 Speculative space under construction No new build space on site, supply gap until 218 Overall 1.3% up from 9.4% Q , 3.1% increasing from 2.2% Q4 sq ft Investment volumes Mike Buchan Leasing Ross Burns Investment strongest year since 21 1 UK Office Market Report H2

11 Leeds Market overview The Leeds office market has seen a strong with over 68, transacted during the year. The largest deal occurred in Q4 with Sky taking just over 9, in Leeds Dock. Market sentiment remained positive in the final quarter of the year with occupier demand robust. Therefore, the outlook for the occupational market is confident with encouraging momentum moving into 216. Overall supply remained under pressure during, with the rate falling from 5% to 4.4% over the course of the year. There is a solid amount of space under construction, although with most due to complete in 216, there is risk of a supply gap by the end of the year. Unless new schemes or refurbishments are announced, pre-lets will remain the favoured method of tenants securing their required space. Prime rents were unchanged in Q4 at 26.5 per sq ft but have moved up from 26 per sq ft over the course of the year. With prime space remaining scarce and occupier demand holding firm, the expectation is that rents will remain under pressure. Incentives hardened in Q4, with 15 months rent free on a 1 year term steadily becoming the norm year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy space remains scarce Overall 4.4% down from 5.% 1.5% up from 1.4% Investment volumes were steady in with just over 1 of space transacted and a number of key deals placed under offer in Q4. The key deal over the year was the 31.5 acquisition of The Round Foundry by Hermes REIM in Q3, reflecting a yield of 7.98%. Prime yields remained at 5.25% over the quarter, and have been unchanged at this level since Q Speculative space under construction Encouraging amount of space under construction Q , sq ft Q4 576, sq ft Prime rents Jeff Pearey Leasing Mathew Atkinson Investment 26.5 psf headline rents moving up 1.9 % year-on-year growth UK Office Market Report H2 11

12 Manchester Market overview The Manchester office market has finished the year with 26, of space transacted. This has taken the annual total to 1.3 sq ft, only marginally behind the record breaking year seen in 214. These robust volumes highlight the strength of occupational demand within Manchester during. The key deal in Q4 was Addleshaw Goddard taking just over 56, in One St Peter's Square. Following the revision in Q1 to the market boundary to reflect the growth of the city, the overall rate has continued to move down and now stands at 6.8%. Prime space is noticeably scarcer with the rate remaining around 1.8% over the duration of the year. The development pipeline remains solid but with supply still tight, pre-lets are anticipated to become more common in 216 as occupiers seek to secure the best quality space. With occupier demand consistent during, prime rents moved up consistently by 6.3% over the year. In Q4, rents moved up from 33.5 to 34. per sq ft, which was achieved at a letting in Chancery Place. With rents rising, incentives remained under pressure but were unchanged over the quarter and are typically around months rent free on a 1 year term. The investment market finished the year strongly with over 32 of space transacted in Q4 and 437 of buildings under offer, it is anticipated that some of these may show further yield compression once completed. The key deal over the quarter was Standard Life s acquisition of 1 Marsden Street for just over 34. Despite robust volumes over the course of the year, prime yields have been unchanged at 5%. 1,4 1,2 1, Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy City Centre prime space remains scarce Prime rents year average Overall 6.8% up from 6.% 34. psf strong growth 1.7% increasing from.6% City centre boundary revised in Q1 6.3 % year-on-year growth Pre-lets Chris Mulcahy Leasing James Porteous Investment , sq ft in 2 deals (both sites) 253, sq ft in 6 deals (2 sites) 12 UK Office Market Report H2

13 Western Corridor Market overview The Western Corridor market saw a steady Q4 with 545, transacted. Over the course of the year the market has been positive with 2.2 sq ft of space let, above the 5 year average for the region. The Thames Valley was the more active market in with 1.19 sq ft let, compared to 1.5 sq ft transacted in West London. The TMT sector was the most active over the year, accounting for 33% of space let. Overall supply continues to move down across the Western Corridor, with space particularly scarce. Vacancy rates have eased over the year and at Q4, rates in the Thames Valley were 7.3% and 2.8% in West London. The development pipeline has increased over the quarter, but with the majority of space due for completion in 216, supply levels are expected to tighten at the back end of 216 and into 217. Occupier demand was healthy in and combined with the ongoing shortage of good quality space, prime rents continued to move up. Strategic relocations with occupiers from Central London moving part of their business into the regions helped to drive demand over the year and there are already a number underway in 216. Furthermore, with increasing decentralisation pressure from Central London expected in 216, the pressure on prime rents will increase. As a result, rents in the Western Corridor are forecast to grow by 4.4% on an average annualised basis between 216 and ,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy Overall supply continues downward trend Prime rents Overall 9.6% down from 12.5% 4.9% down from 5.1% The Western Corridor investment market finished the year strongly despite the reduced demand from UK funds. In Q4 almost 5 transacted whilst annually, volumes totalled just over 2.3 billion. This surpassed the previous peak seen in 213. Yields were unchanged over the year, remaining at 5.25% in the Thames Valley and 5% in West London. Q psf consistent growth 6.6 % year-on-year growth Investment volumes James Finnis Leasing Angus Minford Investment 214 1,66 2,321 Western Corridor volumes show strong uplift UK Office Market Report H2 13

14 Prime office rents Q4 Q-o-Q ( per sq ft) Y-o-Y Edinburgh % +3.3% Glasgow % +3.4% GLASGOW EDINBURGH Leeds 26.5.% +1.9% Manchester % +6.3% MANCHESTER LEEDS Birmingham 3. +.% +5.3% Cardiff 24. Bristol % +9.1%.% +1.8% CARDIFF BIRMINGHAM BRISTOL WESTERN CORRIDOR CENTRAL LONDON West End 12. City 7. Western Corridor % +4.3% +3.7% +12.% +3.% +6.6% 14 UK Office Market Report H2

15 Contacts Business contacts Jeremy Richards Head of National Offices Bristol +44 () Chris Ireland Chairman and Lead Director UK Capital Markets +44 () Research contacts Ben Burston UK Research +44 () Vicky Heath UK Research +44() Barrie David UK Research +44 () barrie.david@eu.jll.com Investment contacts Ben Kelly Director, Birmingham +44 () ben.kelly@eu.jll.com Colin Finlayson Director, Edinburgh +44 () colin.finlayson@eu.jll.com James Porteous Director, Manchester +44 () james.porteous@eu.jll.com Oliver Paine Director, Bristol +44 () oliver.paine@eu.jll.com Ross Burns Director, Glasgow +44 () ross.burns@eu.jll.com Angus Minford Director, Western Corridor +44 () angus.minford@eu.jll.com Justin Millett Director, Cardiff +44 () justin.millett@eu.jll.com Mathew Atkinson Director, Leeds +44 () mathew.atkinson@eu.jll.com Mark Wilson Director, Western Corridor +44 () mark.wilson@eu.jll.com UK Office Market Report H2 15

16 Leasing contacts Jonathan Carmalt Director, Birmingham +44 () Ian Wills Director, Bristol +44 () Rhydian Morris Director, Cardiff +44 () Cameron Stott Director, Edinburgh +44 () Andrew Pearce Director, Exeter +44 () Mike Buchan Director, Glasgow +44 () Jeff Pearey Director, Leeds +44 () Chris Mulcahy Director, Manchester +44 () Matthew Smith Director, Nottingham +44 () David McGougan Director, Southampton +44 () James Finnis Director, Western Corridor +44 () jll.co.uk 216 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.