Bratislava City Report Q4 2015

Transcription

1 Bratislava City Report Q4 2015

2 Millions Economy / Investment Market Key facts Annual GDP growth (%) Real GDP growth in Q3 grew by 0.9% on the quarter. GDP growth is forecast at 3.4% in 2015 and 3.2% in Domestic demand continues to be the main driver of growth, with booming fixed investment rising by 5.7% over the quarter. Private consumption continued its solid rebound in the third quarter, recording a 0.7% quarterly growth. Forecast for overall fixed investment growth to have reached 9.9% in 2015, and to taper off to 2.2% in Imports are expected to have grown by 6% in % 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% -3% -5% Forecast Economy indicators Unemployment Rate 2015 F Fixed Investment (Q3 2015) 5.7% 11.5% Source: Slovak Statistical Office, Oxford Economics Investment Volumes Private Consumption (Forecast 2015) % Average Monthly Wage (2015) Investment Market The industrial market is currently the most active. In the third quarter, DNV Industrial Park was sold by Aviva s LogAxes, SachsenFonds and J&T Real Estate to CTP Invest. Office investment volumes increased significantly during the second half of In retail we are witnessing increasing investor interest in both prime shopping centers in the capital and smaller regional schemes across the country. The total investment volume in 2015 reached approximately 412 million. Prime Yields Retail 6.5%

3 Office Market Stock & Vacancy Prime Rents ( / /month) In Q4, Bratislava s A and B class office stock amounted to million, of which, 57.9% is represented by A class and 42.1% by B class. Twin City (16,000 ) was completed in Q4 and more than 145,000 of new office space is under construction. By the end of 2016, we expect almost 90,000 of new office space to be completed, with use permits finalised of by the end of the year or in early The overall vacancy rate in Bratislava has decreased significantly to 8.76% from 11.49% in the previous quarter. The lowest level of vacancy was recorded in the City Centre submarket at a level of 7.09%, followed by the Outer City at a level of 8.62% and the Inner City at a level of 10.09%. Inner City City Centre Outer City Vacancy rate by districts Bratislava I Bratislava II Bratislava III Bratislava IV Bratislava V Transactions volume District Total Take-up Largest Transaction BA I 41,020 19, % 7.57% 18.18% 7.50% 8.71% Demand Renewals Existing stock (million ) & U/C Supply ( 000 ) A Class B Class Existing stock (millions) 79, U/C Supply (thousands) 0.65 New / Relocations / Expansions BA II 13,413 2,124 BA III 8,912 5,000 BA IV 8,912 5,752 BA V 2,657 2, % 64.4%

4 Retail Density ( / 1,000 inhabitants) Retail Market Key facts New Shopping Centres opened in 2015 The total retail stock comprises approximately 1.6 million, of which, more than 80% accounts for shopping centres, the rest consisting of retail parks and department stores. The most saturated region is the capital (Bratislava) where retail stock per capita is well above the European average. A major portion of existing development activity is taking place in the regional cities. Two shopping centres opened during Q3 2015: City arena, with 24,000 m² in Trnava; Forum with 23,000 m² in Poprad and Galéria Lučenec with 10,000 m² in Lučenec in Q Increasing investor appetite is so far persisting opportunity to acquire assets before yield compression. With new schemes being initiated and major investment transactions being negotiated, the Slovak retail market has gained some positive momentum during the last quarter of Name City GLA Vajnoria Bratislava 5,500 Galéria Lučenec Lučenec 10,800 City Arena Trnava 23,000 Forum Poprad Poprad 24,000 Prime shopping center supply ( 000 ) Forecast Rents ( / / month - Bratislava) ,584 1, , Existing stock Under construction / New supply Shopping Centre Retail Parks High Street Retail Density & Purchasing Power 1,800 1,600 Nitra 1,400 Trenčín Bratislava 1,200 Žilina 1,000 Trnava 800 Košice 600 Poprad 400 Martin Banská Bystrica 200 Prešov 0 7,500 8,500 9,500 10,500 11,500 12,500 13,500 Source Purchasing Power: GfK Incoma Purchasing Power ( per capita / year)

5 Industrial Market Key facts Under Construction & New Supply The total A class industrial Stock in the Slovak Republic totals million. Q brought several new industrial facilities, all of which are located in the Greater Bratislava. Several new premises are under construction with a total leasable area of almost 80,000, located both in Greater Bratislava and the regions. The overall vacancy rate in Slovakia has decreased significantly to 3.47% from 4.10% in the previous quarter. 80, % 87.5% 65, % 5.0% Stock & Vacancy 997 Prime Rents ( / /month) % % % Greater Bratislava Western Slovakia % Take-up (Thousand ) Stock (Thousand ) Central Slovakia Eastern Slovakia Vacancy (%) Vacancy Rate development Take-up Split 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 33.44% Greater Bratislava Regions New Take-up Renewals

6 Miroslav Barnáš Managing Director +421 (0) miroslav.barnas@eu.jll.com Peter Nitschneider National Director +421 (0) peter.nitschneider@eu.jll.com Ján Bošácky Research Analyst +421 (0) jan.bosacky@eu.jll.com Featured Research: Slovak Industrial Market Q Slovak Office Market Q COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.