Stronger activity expected in H2 2016

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1 PROPERTY TIMES Stronger activity expected in H UK Industrial Q /05/2016 Author Michael Green Research Analyst +44 (0) Contacts Ben Clarke Head of UK Research +44 (0) Fergus Hicks Global Head of Forecasting +44 (0) Joanna Tano Head of Operations EMEA Research +44 (0) Q1 take-up lowest on record After a slow H2 2015, occupier activity eased off again in Q1 2016, with just under 5m sq ft of take-up the lowest figure we have on record. Several factors are currently affecting take-up, mainly the slowdown in global export markets, but also uncertainty surrounding the impending EU referendum. We expect take-up to be at a similar level in Q2 but the second half of the year is likely to be decidedly more active following the outcome of the Brexit vote. The remain result is most likely, however, industrial activity continues to be driven by retail and the e-commerce sector, and buildings to suit this requirement will continue to be in demand in the longer term regardless. Grade A availability at a four year high Speculative development continues to rise across the more active regions, such as the South East, Midlands and the North West, and there is now a definite appetite for newly-constructed buildings outside of the M1 and M6 corridors. Developments have been announced along other main trunk roads such as the M4, M5 and M62. With speculative development still on the rise and the stall in take-up over the past few quarters, grade A availability was 15.8m sq ft in Q its highest point since Q Prime will continue to rise across all regions Despite weaker take-up in recent quarters, there continues to be considerable pent-up occupier demand for prime buildings. The strongest rental growth will be in the markets with limited or no grade A availability, such as Cardiff, Newcastle and Nottingham, which are both expected to achieve rental growth of 2.6% on average per year over the next five years. Figure 1 Quarterly take-up by grade (million sq ft) A B C cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 1

2 Figure 2 Speculative development since Q (million sq ft) Figure 3 Grade A availability (million sq ft) Completed Under Construction Proposed Figure 4 Rental growth ( per sq ft) Figure 5 Investment transactions by region ( m) Q (forecast) Q yr average volume Table 1 Regional comparison and historical change Q TAKE-UP (SQ FT) AVAILABILITY (SQ FT) PRIME RENTS ( PER SQ FT) INITIAL YIELD (%) East Midlands 749,488 16,308,825 Nottingham West Midlands 1,611,060 24,879,966 Birmingham London/South East/East 146,441 11,286,430 Heathrow South West 1,068,584 5,008,745 Bristol North West 271,350 33,185,860 Manchester Yorkshire & Humber 666,404 18,394,644 Leeds North East 72,000 6,727,978 Newcastle Wales 130,350 9,349,433 Cardiff Scotland 260,749 17,293,191 Edinburgh Glasgow Source: Cushman & Wakefield cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 2

3 Map 1 Q1 Industrial take-up (sq ft), ESRI cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 3

4 Definitions Availability: Availability ratio: Floorspace: Newly available: Stock: Building grade: Speculative development: Development start: Development completion: Active demand: Under offer: Take-up: Headline rent: Marketed space (usually available to move into within 6 months) that may or may not be vacant. Office space currently available as a percentage of stock projected six months ahead (i.e. includes speculative completions during that period). Floor area in sq ft adopted throughout is net internal area. Coverage is all office units over 500 sq ft. Floor space placed on the open market including both developments within six months of completion and units of second-hand space. The total office accommodation in the commercial and public sectors. Grade A: newly developed or comprehensively refurbished to new standard, including sublet space in new/refurbished buildings not previously occupied. Grade B: buildings of good specification, floor plate efficiency and image usually but not exclusively ten years old or less. Grade C: remaining poorer quality stock. A newly developed or comprehensively refurbished building undertaken without the benefit of a secured tenant. A development in which work has started on the main contract. This usually excludes demolition and site clearance contracts. A development in which the main contract has been completed, whether this be to shell and core or developer's finish. Named entities with appointed agents and a declared requirement for office accommodation which it wishes to satisfy within the foreseeable future Units which a potential occupier has agreed in principle to acquire, subject to negotiation. Occupational transactions, including the following: (i) offices let/sold to an eventual occupier that had not been previously recorded as under offer to that occupier (ii) developments pre-let/sold to an occupier (iii) owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold The rent reported being paid, which may not take account of concessions such as rent-free periods, in which case it is known as the effective rent. cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 4

5 Industrial Agency Mark Webster Head of European Logistics and Industrial +44 (0) Karen Thomas Partner - London and South East +44 (0) Harry Bunbury Associate Director - London and South East +44 (0) Tom Fairlie Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) Edward Newman Assistant Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) Simon Lloyd Senior Director - Birmingham +44 (0) Colin Lawrence-Waterhouse Associate - Birmingham +44 (0) Gemma Constantinou Senior Surveyor - Nottingham +44 (0) Peter Briggs Surveyor - Manchester +44 (0) Daniel Mitchell Surveyor - Leeds +44 (0) Rob Ladd Director - Cardiff +44 (0) Mark Balchin Assistant Analyst - Bristol +44 (0) Fergus MacLennan Senior Surveyor - Glasgow +44 (0) Gordon Reynolds Partner - London and South East +44 (0) Heather Harvey-Wood Associate Director - London and South East +44 (0) Alice Hampden-Smith Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) Chris House Assistant Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) David Binks Partner - Birmingham +44 (0) Edward Kennerley Surveyor - Birmingham +44 (0) Chris Brown Associate Director - Manchester +44 (0) Andrew Crabtree Assistant Surveyor - Manchester +44 (0) Chris Donabie Associate Director - Newcastle +44 (0) Chris Yates Senior Surveyor - Cardiff +44 (0) James Thomson Senior Director - Edinburgh +44 (0) Conor Nisbet Assistant Surveyor - Glasgow +44 (0) Tunde Adegbemile Director - London and South East +44 (0) Richard Henderson Senior Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) Chris Park Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) Lee Fitzgerald Assistant Surveyor - London and South East +44 (0) John Sambrooks Director - Birmingham +44 (0) Marcus Phayer Assistant Surveyor - Birmingham +44 (0) Phil Morley Associate Director - Manchester +44 (0) Scott Morrison Senior Surveyor - Leeds +44 (0) Emma Conville Senior Surveyor - Newcastle +44 (0) Philip Cranstone Associate Director - Bristol +44 (0) Stewart McMillan Associate - Edinburgh +44 (0) Lucy Bell Assistant Surveyor - Glasgow +44 (0) cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 5

6 Investment Agency Jason Winfield Head of UK & Ireland Investment Agency +44 (0) Jeremy Beckett National Coordinator UK Investment +44 (0) Steven Newlands Head of Scottish investment +44 (0) David Smeeton Senior Director - Birmingham +44 (0) Andrew Gibson Director - Cardiff +44 (0) Charles Howard Director - London and South East +44 (0) Nick Allan Senior Director - Bristol +44 (0) Greg Davison Director Leeds +44 (0) Stuart Spalding Director - Glasgow +44 (0) Ben Havery Associate Director - London and South East +44 (0) Richard Turner Senior Director - Newcastle +44 (0) Craig Barton Director - Manchester +44 (0) Disclaimer This report has been produced by Cushman & Wakefield for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which Cushman & Wakefield believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and Cushman & Wakefield shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. The data contained in this report is based upon that collected by DTZ. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part Cushman & Wakefield. To see a full list of all our publications please go to cushmanwakefield.com or download the My C&W Research App Global Headquarters 77 West Wacker Drive 18th Floor Chicago, IL USA phone fax EMEA Headquarters 125 Old Broad Street London, EC2N 1AR phone +44 (0) fax +44 (0) cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com PROPERTY TIMES 6

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