MARKET UDPATE Q THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON

Transcription

1 MARKET UDPATE Q1 218 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON

2 MARKET UPDATE Q1 218 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON Following a positive end to 217, the Thames Valley has had a steady first quarter with leasing activity above the long term average, albeit still dominated by smaller transactions. CONTENTS THAMES VALLEY 4 WEST LONDON 12 The Elizabeth Line is set to be fully operational in 219, which will be of great benefit to the Thames Valley and West London markets as occupiers look to benefit from cost reductions utilising hub and spoke occupational models de-centralising out of Central London. With limited development in the pipeline in the Western corridor, the choice available to occupiers in today's market will be reduced over the next two years. CHARLES DADY INTERNATIONAL PARTNER 2 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

3 TOTAL OCCUPATIONAL COSTS M4 CORRIDOR 1 READING 8 HAMMERSMITH (INC. WHITE CITY) STOCK (SFT) 11,7, CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 1,825, ,293 VACANCY RATE 15.6% STOCK (SFT) 6,1, CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 1,11, 286,925 VACANCY RATE 18.19% PRIME RENT (PSF) 38. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) PRIME RENT (PSF) 59. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) BRACKNELL 3 MAIDENHEAD 4 SLOUGH 5 UXBRIDGE 6 HEATHROW 7 CHISWICK (INC. STOCKLEY PARK) STOCK (SFT) 4,7, STOCK (SFT) 3,3, STOCK (SFT) 6,2, STOCK (SFT) 5,8, STOCK (SFT) 4,8, STOCK (SFT) 3,, CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 489,923 CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 473,347 CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 95,518 CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 619,116 CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 786,23 CURRENT SUPPLY (SFT) 458,148 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 165,463 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 133,567 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 96,91 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 85,942 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 16,296 AVE 5 YR ANNUAL TAKE-UP (SFT) 11,363 VACANCY RATE 1.42% VACANCY RATE 14.34% VACANCY RATE 14.6% VACANCY RATE 1.67% VACANCY RATE 16.38% VACANCY RATE 15.27% PRIME RENT (PSF) 25. PRIME RENT (PSF) 39. PRIME RENT (PSF) 34. PRIME RENT (PSF) 35. PRIME RENT (PSF) 33.5 PRIME RENT (PSF) 54. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 4. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 58. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 51. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 56. TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 52.5 TOTAL OCCUPANCY COSTS (PSF) 8. 3 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

4 THAMES VALLEY

5 MARKET OVERVIEW THAMES VALLEY TAKE-UP CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD COMPARED TO AVERAGE SUPPLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD Q ,32-15% +3% TOTAL STOCK 56,8, 217 TOTAL 1,347,67 +19% -1% TOTAL SUPPLY 6,115, % 5 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE 336,549 YEAR S SUPPLY (BASED ON 1 YEAR AVERAGE) YEAR AVERAGE 1,427,595 VACANCY RATE 1.77% -.5% 5 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

6 MARKET TAKE UP THAMES VALLEY THAMES VALLEY TAKE UP (BY SIZE BAND) TAKE UP BY SECTOR SQ FT 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 7% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% % 41% TMT PROF PHARMA FIN OTHER SERVICED OFFICES FMCG Q % 9% 12% SERVICES ENERGY M&D RETAIL -9,999 1,-24,999 25,-49,999 5,+ Take up in Q1 was 3% higher than the 5 year quarterly average totalling 345,32 sq ft There were 31 transactions in Q1 leading to an average deal size of 11, sq ft The TMT sector has been the most active over the last 15 months accounting for 41% of the market Despite high interest levels, serviced office companies are the 6th most active sector in the market 6 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

7 MARKET TAKE UP THAMES VALLEY TOP 5 TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY NAME TOWN DATE TOTAL AREA (SQ FT) OCCUPIER THAMES TOWER READING MAR-18 37,632 ERICSSON TOR MAIDENHEAD MAR-18 21,852 LANE4 THAMES TOWER READING MAR-18 29,632 FORA 27 BATH ROAD SLOUGH FEB-18 45,112 STANLEY BLACK & DECKER BELMONT UXBRIDGE JAN-18 23, GIFF GAFF 7 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

8 AVAILABILITY THAMES VALLEY THAMES VALLEY AVAILABILITY AVAILABILITY BY TOWN 1,, 1,, SQ FT 8,, 6,, 4,, SQ FT 8, 6, 4, 2, 2,, Bracknell Heathrow High Wycombe Maidenhead Marlow Oxford Reading Slough Uxbridge Windsor Wokingham Total Supply Grade A Other 5 yr ave 1 yr ave Grade A Total Availability has remained flat over the last three years and now sits just ahead of the 5 year average, but well below the 1 year average Despite a number of speculative development completions, Grade A availability has remained stable Despite availability levels higher than the 5 year average, a number of markets such as Oxford and High Wycombe are starved of Grade A supply Availability is set to fall over the coming quarters with limited developments due to complete in THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

9 KEY DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS THAMES VALLEY THAMES VALLEY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 12, 2 4 1, 3 8, 1 SQ FT 6, 4, 2, 124 ARLINGTON BP 32, SQ FT THE LANTERN, MAIDENHEAD 2, SQ FT 1 VICTORIA STREET, WINDSOR 44, SQ FT FUTURE WORKS, SLOUGH 1, SQ FT LANDLORD APAM/PATRON Q3 218 LANDLORD BERWICK HILL Q4 218 LANDLORD L&G Q4 219 LANDLORD U&I/ASHBY Q2 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 Q4 218 Q1 219 Q2 219 Q3 219 Q4 219 OUT OF TOWN TOWN CENTRE TOWN CENTRE TOWN CENTRE Date 9 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

10 RENTS THAMES VALLEY THAMES VALLEY RENTAL GRAPH CURRENT RENT PER SQ FT per sq ft Stockley Park Uxbridge Current Rent Slough Maidenhead Bracknell Reading Marlow High Wycombe Oxford Headline rents increased by 1.3% in 217 Rents are expected to remain stable during 218 with a number of competing Grade A buildings in the market All markets in the Thames Valley have surpassed their previous peak Incentive packages have increased in markets where there are above average levels of supply 1 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

11 DEMAND THAMES VALLEY THAMES VALLEY DEMAND NAMED DEMAND 1,8, 1 1,6, 9 1,4, 8 7 1,2, 6 1,, 5 8, 4 6, 3 4, 2 2, 1 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 SQ FT NUMBER Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 Q1 218 Required space Average No. of requirements The average size of requirement increased in Q1 217 to 39, sq ft which is significantly ahead of the average of 15, sq ft 11 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

12 WEST LONDON

13 MARKET OVERVIEW WEST LONDON TAKE-UP CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD COMPARED TO AVERAGE SUPPLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PERIOD Q ,997-32% -18% TOTAL STOCK 23,, 217 TOTAL 678,43-1% 4% TOTAL SUPPLY 2,252, % 5 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE 16,463 YEAR S SUPPLY (BASED ON 1 YEAR AVERAGE) YEAR AVERAGE 644,337 VACANCY RATE 9.79%.61% 13 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

14 MARKET TAKE UP WEST LONDON WEST LONDON TAKE UP (BY SIZE BAND) TAKE UP BY SECTOR 1,2, 1,, 8, 7% 5% 1% 1% TMT OTHER SQ FT 6, 4, 12% 34% SERVICED OFFICES FMCG PHARMA 2, 18% PROF 22% FIN Q1 218 ENERGY -9,999 1,-24,999 25,-49,999 5,+ Take-up in Q1 fell below the long term quarterly average by 18% totalling 132, sq ft There were 18 transactions in Q1 leading to an average deal size of 8, sq ft, which is below the average of 12, sq ft The TMT sector has been the most active over the last 15 months accounting for 34% of the WL market Serviced offices are the second most active sector in the market accounting for 18%, a trend that is likely to continue throughout THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

15 MARKET TAKE UP WEST LONDON TOP 5 TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY NAME TOWN DATE TOTAL AREA (SQ FT) OCCUPIER FC2 PARK ROYAL MAR-18 14,234 LIFE RESIDENTIAL WATERFRONT HAMMERSMITH FEB-18 25, JUICE + TRANSLATION & INNOVATION HUB WHITE CITY FEB-18 17,98 OVADO LEARNING VANTAGE LONDON BRENTFORD FEB-18 11, POLE 2 WIN 12 HAMMERSMITH GROVE HAMMERSMITH JAN-18 1,3 RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS 15 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

16 AVAILABILITY WEST LONDON WEST LONDON AVAILABILITY AVAILABILITY BY TOWN 2,5, 7, 6, SQ FT 2,, 1,5, 1,, SQ FT 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, Total Supply Grade A 5 yr ave 1 yr ave Hammersmith Grade A Chiswick Total White City Brentford Ealing Wimbledon Richmond Availability in West London is at a 1 year high, largely down to over 5, sq ft delivered in White City and 3, sq ft at Chiswick Park With a large amount of space expected to transact throughout 218, supply is expected to reduce in line with the long term averages With only four schemes set to be delivered in the market before 22, availability is not likely to increase across all markets With a large amount of Grade A supply in the market incentives have moved out in all key centres 16 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

17 KEY DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS WEST LONDON 1 WEST LONDON DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 4 3, 25, 2, 2 3 SQ FT 15, 1, 5, WEMBLEY PARK 55, SQ FT WELLINGTON, WIMBLEDON 26, SQ FT 22/24 WORPLE ROAD, WIMBLEDON 4, SQ FT 245 HAMMERSMITH ROAD 245, SQ FT LANDLORD QUINTAIN Q3 219 TOWN CENTRE LANDLORD THREADNEEDLE Q1 219 TOWN CENTRE LANDLORD HENDERSON Q1 219 TOWN CENTRE LANDLORD L&G Q2 219 TOWN CENTRE Q2 218 Q3 218 Q4 218 Q1 219 Date Q2 219 Q3 219 Q THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

18 RENTS WEST LONDON WEST LONDON RENTAL GRAPH CURRENT RENT PER SQ FT per sq ft Hammersmith Chiswick White City Brentford Ealing Wimbledon Richmond Prime headline rents have been consistently increasing over the past 1 years at an average of 4.5% per annum With the majority of key centres well supplied with Grade A stock, rents may re-balance in 218 as there is more competition for occupiers Rents are likely to remain stable at these levels following a raft of speculative development completions 18 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

19 DEMAND WEST LONDON WEST LONDON DEMAND NAMED DEMAND 1,8, 8 1,2, 7 1,, 8, 6, 4, , 1 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 SQ FT NUMBER Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 Q1 218 Required space Average No. of requirements Despite good take up levels, occupier demand has fallen below the long terms quarterly average for the previous three quarters The average size of requirement is 15, sq ft across the market 19 THAMES VALLEY & WEST LONDON MARKET UPDATE

20 CONTACTS CHARLES DADY INTERNATIONAL PARTNER T +44 () E charles.dady@cushwake.com JAMIE RENISON INTERNATIONAL PARTNER T +44 () E jamie.renison@cushwake.com